What a lucky ducky friend, huh?LunchTime said:Yeah, about a flights worth. I know because I picked it up in an airport and gave it to a friend when I landed.KenBurnski said:
+1. It's an interesting, quick read.
Coronavirus and upcoming season
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590 Replies |
Last: 3 yr ago by bearister
Thanks for the affirmation, TandemBear, but I need to concede that Cal88 and FiatLux have a point. Bill Gates has probably acquired some expertise about pandemics the past twenty years or so. I wasn't thinking about what he's surely learned as a result of his foundation. My bad.TheFiatLux said:Et tu Big C?Big C said:Cal88 said:
What a coincidence: I was just going to suggest, "Let's find out what Bill Gates thinks about the COVID-19 threat!" After all, he was in the right place at the right time and dropped out of Harvard to start a computer software company and is worth fifty or a hundred billion dollars (so he MUST know about everything).
We're now going to diminish the opinion of people like Bill Gates - to what end? Honestly, you don't think he might have some insight into this the rest of us don't? He's dedicated billions of dollars to eradicating diseases, and I don't mind saying this, he's smarter than most of this board combined (would probably have to remove SebastaBear from that equation because his inclusion might even the scales out for us!).
And then of course we diminish... I mean, he was just in the right place at the right time, right? Or maybe he helped create that place and time.
Gotta say, Fiat, yes, perhaps I diminished his opinion, but maybe you are magnifying his opinion. Suppose I had learned a whole lot about pandemics because I was donating $100,000 to fight them... would he know more because he's donating $10,000,000,000?
Is Bill Gates intelligent? No doubt. Is he smarter than most of this board combined? Well, I know that was an exaggeration, but c'mon. Smart guy, maybe even brilliant, but he was in the right field, at the right place, at the right time. I'm sure there are whole lot more brilliant people who aren't billionaires, than are.
Just a minor point, but the Gates Foundation has contributed around $36 billion focusing on global health, education, and poverty. A major focus has been in developing countries where epidemics can be devastating. These efforts were not developed and directed by Gates himself (as smart as he maybe) but by experts in these fields. When Gates offers an opinion in this area, you can bet it is an informed opinion based on the guidance and experience of these experts.Big C said:Thanks for the affirmation, TandemBear, but I need to concede that Cal88 and Fiat Lux have a point. He's probably learned a few things about pandemics the past twenty years or so. I wasn't thinking about what he's surely learned as a result of his foundation. My bad.TheFiatLux said:Et tu Big C?Big C said:Cal88 said:
What a coincidence: I was just going to suggest, "Let's find out what Bill Gates thinks about the COVID-19 threat!" After all, he was in the right place at the right time and dropped out of Harvard to start a computer software company and is worth fifty or a hundred billion dollars (so he MUST know about everything).
We're now going to diminish the opinion of people like Bill Gates - to what end? Honestly, you don't think he might have some insight into this the rest of us don't? He's dedicated billions of dollars to eradicating diseases, and I don't mind saying this, he's smarter than most of this board combined (would probably have to remove SebastaBear from that equation because his inclusion might even the scales out for us!).
And then of course we diminish... I mean, he was just in the right place at the right time, right? Or maybe he helped create that place and time.
Gotta say, Fiat, yes, perhaps I diminished his opinion, but maybe you are magnifying his opinion. Suppose I had learned a whole lot about pandemics because I was donating $100,000 to fight them... would he know more because he's donating $10,000,000,000?
Is Bill Gates intelligent? No doubt. Is he smarter than most of this board combined? Well, I know that was an exaggeration, but c'mon. Smart guy, maybe even brilliant, but he was in the right field, at the right place, at the right time. I'm sure there are whole lot more brilliant people who aren't billionaires, than are.
Big C said:Thanks for the affirmation, TandemBear, but I need to concede that Cal88 and Fiat Lux have a point. He's probably learned a few things about pandemics the past twenty years or so. I wasn't thinking about what he's surely learned as a result of his foundation. My bad.TheFiatLux said:Et tu Big C?Big C said:Cal88 said:
What a coincidence: I was just going to suggest, "Let's find out what Bill Gates thinks about the COVID-19 threat!" After all, he was in the right place at the right time and dropped out of Harvard to start a computer software company and is worth fifty or a hundred billion dollars (so he MUST know about everything).
We're now going to diminish the opinion of people like Bill Gates - to what end? Honestly, you don't think he might have some insight into this the rest of us don't? He's dedicated billions of dollars to eradicating diseases, and I don't mind saying this, he's smarter than most of this board combined (would probably have to remove SebastaBear from that equation because his inclusion might even the scales out for us!).
And then of course we diminish... I mean, he was just in the right place at the right time, right? Or maybe he helped create that place and time.
Gotta say, Fiat, yes, perhaps I diminished his opinion, but maybe you are magnifying his opinion. Suppose I had learned a whole lot about pandemics because I was donating $100,000 to fight them... would he know more because he's donating $10,000,000,000?
Is Bill Gates intelligent? No doubt. Is he smarter than most of this board combined? Well, I know that was an exaggeration, but c'mon. Smart guy, maybe even brilliant, but he was in the right field, at the right place, at the right time. I'm sure there are whole lot more brilliant people who aren't billionaires, than are.
If you spent 20 years directing and heading a foundation that paid you $50k a year and had global impact on disease, I would value your opinion as much as I do his.
It's not about how much he has donated, it is the impact of the work he has done that has shown a significant level of awareness and knowledge.
I would trust Bezos opinion on internet commerce, too. Even if he was just at the right place 30 years ago, he has proven his ability to operate in the internet commerce environment.
Switching gears. Any market ideas?
Netflix should ge a solid bump as people stay home. They dont have the exposure to the supply chain that other services have.
Walmart and Target should have good Q1s as people hoard.
P&G and 3M for medical supplies if inventories hold out.
Gilead for the the drug game.
But someone must be aware of some small biotech or suppliers to the big brands that will get a bump.
To be clear, I expect this to be much worse than most people think. Maybe not as bad as Cal88, but a R0 of 3 and already a community acquired fatality of a person in their 50s in the US is bad. I also think this is significant shift in the global economy and domestic stock valuations. 10% of the world's population was locked down last week. No manufacturing out of China for almost a quarter already. We rely so heavily on inputs and finished goods from china that I cant start to calculate the impact of a Bloomberg level decline in imports.
But, I went to buy toilet paper and tylenol, canned food, and just-add water food were mostly empty shelves. Nearly all of the infant care medicine was gone. And with the market tanking, there must be opportunity. If I'm going to die, I want to have a good looking portfolio.
Netflix should ge a solid bump as people stay home. They dont have the exposure to the supply chain that other services have.
Walmart and Target should have good Q1s as people hoard.
P&G and 3M for medical supplies if inventories hold out.
Gilead for the the drug game.
But someone must be aware of some small biotech or suppliers to the big brands that will get a bump.
To be clear, I expect this to be much worse than most people think. Maybe not as bad as Cal88, but a R0 of 3 and already a community acquired fatality of a person in their 50s in the US is bad. I also think this is significant shift in the global economy and domestic stock valuations. 10% of the world's population was locked down last week. No manufacturing out of China for almost a quarter already. We rely so heavily on inputs and finished goods from china that I cant start to calculate the impact of a Bloomberg level decline in imports.
But, I went to buy toilet paper and tylenol, canned food, and just-add water food were mostly empty shelves. Nearly all of the infant care medicine was gone. And with the market tanking, there must be opportunity. If I'm going to die, I want to have a good looking portfolio.
Don't worry LunchTime, I promise to not only write your eulogy here but will also make darn sure they put a roll of toilet paper along side you in your casket!LunchTime said:
Switching gears. Any market ideas?
Netflix should ge a solid bump as people stay home. They dont have the exposure to the supply chain that other services have.
Walmart and Target should have good Q1s as people hoard.
P&G and 3M for medical supplies if inventories hold out.
Gilead for the the drug game.
But someone must be aware of some small biotech or suppliers to the big brands that will get a bump.
To be clear, I expect this to be much worse than most people think. Maybe not as bad as Cal88, but a R0 of 3 and already a community acquired fatality of a person in their 50s in the US is bad. I also think this is significant shift in the global economy and domestic stock valuations. 10% of the world's population was locked down last week. No manufacturing out of China for almost a quarter already. We rely so heavily on inputs and finished goods from china that I cant start to calculate the impact of a Bloomberg level decline in imports.
But, I went to buy toilet paper and tylenol, canned food, and just-add water food were mostly empty shelves. Nearly all of the infant care medicine was gone. And with the market tanking, there must be opportunity. If I'm going to die, I want to have a good looking portfolio.
Seriously. Who are you talking to? You strike me as the kind of dimwit who stands in front of his mirror yelling "I'm not stupid, you're stupid!"
we should dispel some of the odd framing that folks are using to derail the topic.
1.) bill gates opinion is irrelevant. the only relevant thing about him is that he bought a super yacht that he can hide on for extended period of time. that he states this is a once in a century pandemic, well...we don't need him to know that, we can figure that out ourselves.
in any case, find comfort in knowing that the super rich will be in hiding until a vaccine is found. funny thing is that chances of a coronavirus vaccine are not that high. 12 -18 months is pure well wishing. can anybody name an existing coronavirus vaccine? yeah, no.
2.) the R naught rate is unknown, and the mortality rate is far higher than most suggest on this board. why? because China is the point of origin and the Great Fire Wall of China and an authoratian government has clamped down on data so it is really hard to figure it out even for folks who specialize in the field.
what do we know?
A.) Incubation
incubation period is between 2-24 days. feel free to look it up and apply your stats education to it.
B.) Superspreaders and R naught
there are superspreaders that make this all the more scary. the South Korean hub of infection has been speculated due to a superspreader. it's crazy, but consider this: you can be asymptomatic for up to a month. you could be infecting others that entire time. so even the speculated R naught rate of 2-3 may be lower, and it may be higher. we won't know for several months, and only then because we will have numbers we can trust coming out of the Global North nations.
C.) Mortality rate
mortality rate is not 2%
3000 deaths so far and only 90,000 infections...
oh hey, its that thing about not being able to trust data from China again.
did you know that China at first was only reporting people that tested positive, but then some time in mid February chose to change the standard of positive diagnosis to whatever field doctors said. yeah, when that happened the number of cases ballooned by almost 20,000 cases in one day.
what we do know based off of limited data is that a lot of old people are dying. speculation is that the mortality rate is nearly 15% amongst the elderly, particularly those suffering from pre-existing conditions like diabetes.
D.) critical care
a scary proposition is that (again based off of China's distorted numbers) up to 20% of people will require critical care. that means hospital facilities, breathing assistance, etc. mortality rate aside, name any country that is set up to handle this case load?
say the virus can't be contained and 70% of the world will be infected at various times in the coming 24 months...do the math. no country is capable of dealing with this. the US is definitely not prepared, particularly since the pompous president fired the Pandemic response team 2 years ago, and has now put a radio talk show host in charge of the national response. facepalm. let's hope that a radio talk show host is better able to manage things than the horse show guy that failed horribly to respond to Hurricane Katrina.
E.) Economic Crisis
China's factories have been shutting down. that is causing shortages in medical products like respirators. this will get worse as existing stocks will be depleted and China has yet to establish a response to producing badly needed medical products. I am not sure what South Korea or the other Asian Tigers are capable of producing or involved in producing with respect to medical products, but expect South Korea and the other manufacturing centers to begin to mirror China;s response as the outbreak grows and shut down their own factories.
The Port of Los Angeles is already reporting a 20-25% drop in shipments from China.
the US will desperately need leadership from the military to help govern this response. didn't FEMA have funding cuts? anyway, the scale itself will demand involvement from the only organization capable of handling mass scale responses: the military. let's all hope that runs on food stocks don't increase. what is within the realm of possiblity? and that states will have to call out the national guard establish martial law. I consider that a not so bad case scenario. it could be worse. this health crisis is already kicking off an economic crisis, and if things get bad enough, then you could see a political crisis.
F.) sidenotes
imagine the impact come election time. the Census may have to be postponed. public entertainment will come to a halt. conventions are being cancelled. concerts will be cancelled. movie theatres will be ghost towns. in China food delivery has become key, and it has taken on some weird developments (food receipts accompanying the food also indicate the temperature of the cooks who prepared the food).
the US is not a major manufacturer any more, so perhaps the govt can convince some industries to start manufacturing medical goods in the US again, but that will have to address supply chain problems.
G.) Anyway, if you want to dip into the real scale of the problem feel free to consult the following:
** this link has stats and reports from around the world
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
**start reading news sources from around the world on
newsconnect.net
1.) bill gates opinion is irrelevant. the only relevant thing about him is that he bought a super yacht that he can hide on for extended period of time. that he states this is a once in a century pandemic, well...we don't need him to know that, we can figure that out ourselves.
in any case, find comfort in knowing that the super rich will be in hiding until a vaccine is found. funny thing is that chances of a coronavirus vaccine are not that high. 12 -18 months is pure well wishing. can anybody name an existing coronavirus vaccine? yeah, no.
2.) the R naught rate is unknown, and the mortality rate is far higher than most suggest on this board. why? because China is the point of origin and the Great Fire Wall of China and an authoratian government has clamped down on data so it is really hard to figure it out even for folks who specialize in the field.
what do we know?
A.) Incubation
incubation period is between 2-24 days. feel free to look it up and apply your stats education to it.
B.) Superspreaders and R naught
there are superspreaders that make this all the more scary. the South Korean hub of infection has been speculated due to a superspreader. it's crazy, but consider this: you can be asymptomatic for up to a month. you could be infecting others that entire time. so even the speculated R naught rate of 2-3 may be lower, and it may be higher. we won't know for several months, and only then because we will have numbers we can trust coming out of the Global North nations.
C.) Mortality rate
mortality rate is not 2%
3000 deaths so far and only 90,000 infections...
oh hey, its that thing about not being able to trust data from China again.
did you know that China at first was only reporting people that tested positive, but then some time in mid February chose to change the standard of positive diagnosis to whatever field doctors said. yeah, when that happened the number of cases ballooned by almost 20,000 cases in one day.
what we do know based off of limited data is that a lot of old people are dying. speculation is that the mortality rate is nearly 15% amongst the elderly, particularly those suffering from pre-existing conditions like diabetes.
D.) critical care
a scary proposition is that (again based off of China's distorted numbers) up to 20% of people will require critical care. that means hospital facilities, breathing assistance, etc. mortality rate aside, name any country that is set up to handle this case load?
say the virus can't be contained and 70% of the world will be infected at various times in the coming 24 months...do the math. no country is capable of dealing with this. the US is definitely not prepared, particularly since the pompous president fired the Pandemic response team 2 years ago, and has now put a radio talk show host in charge of the national response. facepalm. let's hope that a radio talk show host is better able to manage things than the horse show guy that failed horribly to respond to Hurricane Katrina.
E.) Economic Crisis
China's factories have been shutting down. that is causing shortages in medical products like respirators. this will get worse as existing stocks will be depleted and China has yet to establish a response to producing badly needed medical products. I am not sure what South Korea or the other Asian Tigers are capable of producing or involved in producing with respect to medical products, but expect South Korea and the other manufacturing centers to begin to mirror China;s response as the outbreak grows and shut down their own factories.
The Port of Los Angeles is already reporting a 20-25% drop in shipments from China.
the US will desperately need leadership from the military to help govern this response. didn't FEMA have funding cuts? anyway, the scale itself will demand involvement from the only organization capable of handling mass scale responses: the military. let's all hope that runs on food stocks don't increase. what is within the realm of possiblity? and that states will have to call out the national guard establish martial law. I consider that a not so bad case scenario. it could be worse. this health crisis is already kicking off an economic crisis, and if things get bad enough, then you could see a political crisis.
F.) sidenotes
imagine the impact come election time. the Census may have to be postponed. public entertainment will come to a halt. conventions are being cancelled. concerts will be cancelled. movie theatres will be ghost towns. in China food delivery has become key, and it has taken on some weird developments (food receipts accompanying the food also indicate the temperature of the cooks who prepared the food).
the US is not a major manufacturer any more, so perhaps the govt can convince some industries to start manufacturing medical goods in the US again, but that will have to address supply chain problems.
G.) Anyway, if you want to dip into the real scale of the problem feel free to consult the following:
** this link has stats and reports from around the world
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
**start reading news sources from around the world on
newsconnect.net
Thanks, will definitely check it out. I watched the Netflix series inside Bill's Brain and it was fascinating. The post to which I responded, by a I poster I genuinely like, was frustrating because of just how dismissive it was because I'm guessing Bill didn't agree with the poster's narrative. That's a big part of what I think is wrong in our public discourse these days, as we've seen in other threads.LunchTime said:I read a book called "Grunt: The Curious Science of Humans at War" about how far DoD research to prevent troops from dying before they can be shot has brought us in medical fields, including this type of problem.TheFiatLux said:Et tu Big C?Big C said:Cal88 said:
What a coincidence: I was just going to suggest, "Let's find out what Bill Gates thinks about the COVID-19 threat!" After all, he was in the right place at the right time and dropped out of Harvard to start a computer software company and is worth fifty or a hundred billion dollars (so he MUST know about everything).
We're now going to diminish the opinion of people like Bill Gates - to what end? Honestly, you don't think he might have some insight into this the rest of us don't? He's dedicated billions of dollars to eradicating diseases, and I don't mind saying this, he's smarter than most of this board combined (would probably have to remove SebastaBear from that equation because his inclusion might even the scales out for us!).
And then of course we diminish... I mean, he was just in the right place at the right time, right? Or maybe he helped create that place and time.
There is a chapter on the resources Gates Foundation puts into DoD to help fund some research. Gates Foundation is funding defense medical research that the government wont fund. In terms of medical research, I would trust Bill Gates over anyone who isnt a director at a research org. That dude may be a CEO and not a virologist, but he has put his executive skills to work in the field in a way that is probably without peer, and certainly has driven outcomes that would justify making public proclamations about health. He is a long way from MSFT.
I would recommend the book. It has everything from flies on your food to transgender surgery advancements.
I appreciate it BigC. But I don't think I'm magnifiying his opinion. I didn't post his comments. I'm saying though we certainly shouldn't diminish him. I DO in fact think he's smarter than most of us (combined? of course as you point out that was an exageration), and it's not just that he's donated billions and billlions of dollars, it's how active and hands on he's been. Unlike a lot of people he doesn't have a political horse in this race so can just give a candid, honest opinion. He may be right, or he may be wrong, but it's an opinion with weight. And I'll hold that he helped create that right place and right time that you talk about. People do have impact on events.Big C said:Thanks for the affirmation, TandemBear, but I need to concede that Cal88 and Fiat Lux have a point. He's probably learned a few things about pandemics the past twenty years or so. I wasn't thinking about what he's surely learned as a result of his foundation. My bad.TheFiatLux said:Et tu Big C?Big C said:Cal88 said:
What a coincidence: I was just going to suggest, "Let's find out what Bill Gates thinks about the COVID-19 threat!" After all, he was in the right place at the right time and dropped out of Harvard to start a computer software company and is worth fifty or a hundred billion dollars (so he MUST know about everything).
We're now going to diminish the opinion of people like Bill Gates - to what end? Honestly, you don't think he might have some insight into this the rest of us don't? He's dedicated billions of dollars to eradicating diseases, and I don't mind saying this, he's smarter than most of this board combined (would probably have to remove SebastaBear from that equation because his inclusion might even the scales out for us!).
And then of course we diminish... I mean, he was just in the right place at the right time, right? Or maybe he helped create that place and time.
Gotta say, Fiat, yes, perhaps I diminished his opinion, but maybe you are magnifying his opinion. Suppose I had learned a whole lot about pandemics because I was donating $100,000 to fight them... would he know more because he's donating $10,000,000,000?
Is Bill Gates intelligent? No doubt. Is he smarter than most of this board combined? Well, I know that was an exaggeration, but c'mon. Smart guy, maybe even brilliant, but he was in the right field, at the right place, at the right time. I'm sure there are whole lot more brilliant people who aren't billionaires, than are.
Really. Am I?Cal88 said:OaktownBear said:I think there is a middle ground between recognizing a significant health crisis and accepting someone pulling a death toll of 100,000,000 out of their butt with no basis other than to compare it to a pandemic of a century ago 35 years before we had a polio vaccine. I'm very worried about coronavirus. I don't find your posts constructive. As near as I can tell you have no expertise and you should leave the predictions and recommendations to people who do. Getting people to panic isn't the best course.Cal88 said:
Yes Xultaif, I've got good friends in Northern Italy and in the Far East, so I know that the pandemic is real, and given the contagious nature of the virus and global mobility today, it's only a matter of time until America is hit with the same intensity as in Korea or Italy. This might be a once in a lifetime pandemic event, we've never gone through it before, so people will tend to downplay its potential gravity until it hits home.
You're a bit overly aggressive here, perhaps a reflection of the bitter acrimonious tone that has taken over the OT board the last couple of years. I haven't "pulled anything out of my butt", just provided info with links from reliable sources.
My philosophy here is that you hope for the best, but be prepared for the worst. If anything I probably should have started the thread a bit earlier, when for instance respirator masks were still readily available online.
Really should you have started the thread earlier so more people would by masks?:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/29/health/face-masks-coronavirus-surgeon-general-trnd/index.html
The Surgeon General is begging people to stop buying masks saying it is putting our communities at risk. You think you are doing good here? You are doing the equivalent of telling everyone to leave their hoses running on their roof during a fire so the fire department can't get the water they need to fight the fire.
I hope you can see how absurd the surgeon general's message is.OaktownBear said:Really. Am I?Cal88 said:OaktownBear said:I think there is a middle ground between recognizing a significant health crisis and accepting someone pulling a death toll of 100,000,000 out of their butt with no basis other than to compare it to a pandemic of a century ago 35 years before we had a polio vaccine. I'm very worried about coronavirus. I don't find your posts constructive. As near as I can tell you have no expertise and you should leave the predictions and recommendations to people who do. Getting people to panic isn't the best course.Cal88 said:
Yes Xultaif, I've got good friends in Northern Italy and in the Far East, so I know that the pandemic is real, and given the contagious nature of the virus and global mobility today, it's only a matter of time until America is hit with the same intensity as in Korea or Italy. This might be a once in a lifetime pandemic event, we've never gone through it before, so people will tend to downplay its potential gravity until it hits home.
You're a bit overly aggressive here, perhaps a reflection of the bitter acrimonious tone that has taken over the OT board the last couple of years. I haven't "pulled anything out of my butt", just provided info with links from reliable sources.
My philosophy here is that you hope for the best, but be prepared for the worst. If anything I probably should have started the thread a bit earlier, when for instance respirator masks were still readily available online.
Really should you have started the thread earlier so more people would by masks?:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/29/health/face-masks-coronavirus-surgeon-general-trnd/index.html
The Surgeon General is begging people to stop buying masks saying it is putting our communities at risk. You think you are doing good here? You are doing the equivalent of telling everyone to leave their hoses running on their roof during a fire so the fire department can't get the water they need to fight the fire.
I'd laugh if it wasn't so patently absurd. telling the public that masks do not work, but in the same sentence stating that they do work, but that they need only medical personnel to have access to them. smdh
it's clear that they do work.
it's also clear that the medical industry needs them, as will any personnel involved in a mass scale military based response.
it's also clear that the US manufacturing industry, the advent of the politics of affluence have monumentally failed us and have set this country on course for a catastrophe. globalization successfully weakened this country just so a handful of people could make obscene profits. this country needs to shift to manufacturing medical products immediately. sadly, we have a president who does not understand this and will not mobilize whatever resources this nation has to address the coming crisis.
it is just like how he intentionally bungled Puerto Rico following the Hurricane, a decision that left this country on the brink of a major healthcare crisis in 2018. Puerto Rico manufacturers a lot of IV bags, as well as medicines for diabetes, cancer, and heart disease.
Puerto Rico should have taught them to prepare, but the buffoon led us nowhere.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/why-so-many-medicines-arel-in-short-supply-after-hurricane-maria/
BarcaBear said:I hope you can see how absurd the surgeon general's message is.OaktownBear said:Really. Am I?Cal88 said:OaktownBear said:I think there is a middle ground between recognizing a significant health crisis and accepting someone pulling a death toll of 100,000,000 out of their butt with no basis other than to compare it to a pandemic of a century ago 35 years before we had a polio vaccine. I'm very worried about coronavirus. I don't find your posts constructive. As near as I can tell you have no expertise and you should leave the predictions and recommendations to people who do. Getting people to panic isn't the best course.Cal88 said:
Yes Xultaif, I've got good friends in Northern Italy and in the Far East, so I know that the pandemic is real, and given the contagious nature of the virus and global mobility today, it's only a matter of time until America is hit with the same intensity as in Korea or Italy. This might be a once in a lifetime pandemic event, we've never gone through it before, so people will tend to downplay its potential gravity until it hits home.
You're a bit overly aggressive here, perhaps a reflection of the bitter acrimonious tone that has taken over the OT board the last couple of years. I haven't "pulled anything out of my butt", just provided info with links from reliable sources.
My philosophy here is that you hope for the best, but be prepared for the worst. If anything I probably should have started the thread a bit earlier, when for instance respirator masks were still readily available online.
Really should you have started the thread earlier so more people would by masks?:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/29/health/face-masks-coronavirus-surgeon-general-trnd/index.html
The Surgeon General is begging people to stop buying masks saying it is putting our communities at risk. You think you are doing good here? You are doing the equivalent of telling everyone to leave their hoses running on their roof during a fire so the fire department can't get the water they need to fight the fire.
I'd laugh if it wasn't so patently absurd. telling the public that masks do not work, but in the same sentence stating that they do work, but that they need only medical personnel to have access to them. smdh
it's clear that they do work.
it's also clear that the medical industry needs them, as will any personnel involved in a mass scale military based response.
it's also clear that the US manufacturing industry, the advent of the politics of affluence have monumentally failed us and have set this country on course for a catastrophe. globalization successfully weakened this country just so a handful of people could make obscene profits. this country needs to shift to manufacturing medical products immediately. sadly, we have a president who does not understand this and will not mobilize whatever resources this nation has to address the coming crisis.
it is just like how he intentionally bungled Puerto Rico following the Hurricane, a decision that left this country on the brink of a major healthcare crisis in 2018. Puerto Rico manufacturers a lot of IV bags, as well as medicines for diabetes, cancer, and heart disease.
Puerto Rico should have taught them to prepare, but the buffoon led us nowhere.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/why-so-many-medicines-arel-in-short-supply-after-hurricane-maria/
Love the people that think they know better than the health professionals or worse want to tell everyone that the health professionals are lying even when there is general consensus.
This is why I likened it to running your hose on the roof. Yes, a wet roof is less likely to catch fire. If you run the water it might give you a tiny benefit. If everyone runs the water the result is that you take the tool away from those that do the most good and thus dramatically increase the chance your house burns down.
Patients that are in the hospital are separated from society and no longer a threat EXCEPT FOR INFECTING CAREGIVERS. Caregivers are out and about so if they are infected they are a threat. Being able to stop known carriers from infecting anyone is key. So, number one, the most effective way to stop it is by putting the mask on the sick so they aren't spraying contaminated fluids everywhere. Number 2, caregivers know when they are being exposed. So they take measures before during and after the exposure to stop infection. For instance they know exactly when to wash their hands. So even if the general public had a mask that actually had significant effectiveness, they don't know when they were exposed. They don't know when to wash their hands or change their clothes because they have been contaminated. They cannot was their hands after literally every human interaction like the health care provider can. The mask is one part of the protection and you need the other measures for the mask to be effective. Further, they are in a known high exposure event. The public are walking around protecting themselves against a threat they are unlikely to be facing. It's like taking bulletproof vests away from soldiers on the front lines and randomly handing them out to people who have a small chance at being shot at.
Past studies have clearly demonstrated that masks worn by the general population barely influence the transmission rate. Again, you are taking a useful tool that could really help if used correctly and putting it to a useless purpose.
Buying masks for personal use way ahead of the curve is the equivalent of clearing bushes around your house in anticipation of the fire, as opposed to running your hose during the fire. When the fire hits, your water will be cut off anyway, there are no more masks available in the marketplace now.
Your response to BarcaBear doesn't make much sense, you're saying that mask use for the general public is not useful because they don't wash their hands enough. You don't need to wash your hands every hour, as long as you never touch your eyes, mouth or inside your nose and you should avoid shaking hands and hugging people in the next few months anyway.
I thought the panic would hit stateside in the middle of March, it looks like it's already started. My main point was that there has been a lot of apathy and dismissal of the potential gravity of this epidemic, and have already been vindicated.
Schools and colleges should be suspended right now, air travel curtailed, telecommuting encouraged etc AHEAD of the wave, what we will get instead is those measures applied by the middle or lat March when the epidemic will have already reached critical mass. No need to blame Trump for this, countries like Canada have done a worse job using their 1-2 months lead time to prepare for this.
Your response to BarcaBear doesn't make much sense, you're saying that mask use for the general public is not useful because they don't wash their hands enough. You don't need to wash your hands every hour, as long as you never touch your eyes, mouth or inside your nose and you should avoid shaking hands and hugging people in the next few months anyway.
If you're BARTing to work or commuting taking crowded public transit in a big city, or flying, you're going to get shot at. That's probably the reason the virus has been hitting countries like China, S. Korea and Japan particularly hard. As well in China people get chastised (or worse) for going out without a mask, their health guidelines stipulate wearing masks outside your home, for a reason. I understand the public health agenda right now is about prioritizing and rationalizing the current scarcity, but no need to bend the truth when forcing that "public health general consensus" message through unfiltered.Quote:
It's like taking bulletproof vests away from soldiers on the front lines and randomly handing them out to people who have a small chance at being shot at.
I thought the panic would hit stateside in the middle of March, it looks like it's already started. My main point was that there has been a lot of apathy and dismissal of the potential gravity of this epidemic, and have already been vindicated.
Schools and colleges should be suspended right now, air travel curtailed, telecommuting encouraged etc AHEAD of the wave, what we will get instead is those measures applied by the middle or lat March when the epidemic will have already reached critical mass. No need to blame Trump for this, countries like Canada have done a worse job using their 1-2 months lead time to prepare for this.
Cal88 said:
Buying masks for personal use way ahead of the curve is the equivalent of clearing bushes around your house in anticipation of the fire, as opposed to running your hose during the fire. When the fire hits, your water will be cut off anyway, there are no more masks available in the marketplace now.
Your response to BarcaBear doesn't make much sense, you're saying that mask use for the general public is not useful because they don't wash their hands enough. You don't need to wash your hands every hour, as long as you never touch your eyes, mouth or inside your nose and you should avoid shaking hands and hugging people in the next few months anyway.If you're BARTing to work or commuting taking crowded public transit in a big city, or flying, you're going to get shot at. That's probably the reason the virus has been hitting countries like China, S. Korea and Japan particularly hard. As well in China people get chastised (or worse) for going out without a mask, their health guidelines stipulate wearing masks outside your home, for a reason. I understand the public health agenda right now is about prioritizing and rationalizing the current scarcity, but no need to bend the truth when forcing that "public health general consensus" message through unfiltered.Quote:
It's like taking bulletproof vests away from soldiers on the front lines and randomly handing them out to people who have a small chance at being shot at.
I thought the panic would hit stateside in the middle of March, it looks like it's already started. My main point was that there has been a lot of apathy and dismissal of the potential gravity of this epidemic, and have already been vindicated.
Schools and colleges should be suspended right now, air travel curtailed, telecommuting encouraged etc AHEAD of the wave, what we will get instead is those measures applied by the middle or lat March when the epidemic will have already reached critical mass. No need to blame Trump for this, countries like Canada have done a worse job using their 1-2 months lead time to prepare for this.
Clearing brush around your house does not take tools away from authorities. Buying up masks faster than they can be produced does.
Regarding the effectiveness of arming the general public with masks, I am amazed how many health issues you like to come on here and tell everyone you know better than the actual professionals. Most people are saying to be very careful. What they are not doing is replacing the judgment of the professionals with their own. The most important thing in this situation is an intelligent, coordinated response. Not everyone going off half cocked.
You are not vindicated. Italy is taking a very coordinated response to areas infected while also saying why the hell are people freaking out in areas that are not.
No one is dismissing the threat. They are saying follow the advice of the professionals.
By the way, everyone in China has masks. They wear the things at the drop of a hat. Many wear them every day with no threat. I guarantee you they were all wearing their masks at the first sign of trouble. Doesn't seem to have helped them
auberge said:Chicken Little was right.Cal88 said:
The epidemic has started to spread outside of China and east Asia, school is cancelled in Milan, Italy, and championship soccer games last week have been played without any spectators. By March most soccer games in Europe will be played with empty stands. All classes in northern Italian universities have been suspended.
I will guess this virus will hit CA and N. America in March, and the maximum impact will be felt by April, with schools cancelled. I think the NCAA BB tourney will be disrupted, if it does go on at all, it will be in empty arenas.
The epidemic will present special challenges in large cities, with the large homeless population and overcrowded prisons that will turn into virtual quarantine wards.
I think the Tokyo Olympics will probably be cancelled or postponed to next Summer.
It's hard to assess the impact on the upcoming Fall football season, but chances are classes and finals will be cancelled this term, and Summer School might be cancelled as well.
This is an unprecedented black swan crisis, the worst pandemic since the Spanish Flu. I hope we can weather it with minimum losses. It seems like none of the western governments are taking it with the seriousness it deserves.
Sometime ago I said that if Cal ever qualifies for the RB, with our luck there would be a huge earthquake in Pasadena and cancel the game.
Well it looks like maybe I was half right. Call has a real shot at the championship this upcoming season when the Covid 19 pandemic might be at its height and all major public gatherings could be cancelled.
This pandemic thing is really getting serious;-)
Well, I hope you're pleased with yourself.GivemTheAxe said:auberge said:Chicken Little was right.Cal88 said:
The epidemic has started to spread outside of China and east Asia, school is cancelled in Milan, Italy, and championship soccer games last week have been played without any spectators. By March most soccer games in Europe will be played with empty stands. All classes in northern Italian universities have been suspended.
I will guess this virus will hit CA and N. America in March, and the maximum impact will be felt by April, with schools cancelled. I think the NCAA BB tourney will be disrupted, if it does go on at all, it will be in empty arenas.
The epidemic will present special challenges in large cities, with the large homeless population and overcrowded prisons that will turn into virtual quarantine wards.
I think the Tokyo Olympics will probably be cancelled or postponed to next Summer.
It's hard to assess the impact on the upcoming Fall football season, but chances are classes and finals will be cancelled this term, and Summer School might be cancelled as well.
This is an unprecedented black swan crisis, the worst pandemic since the Spanish Flu. I hope we can weather it with minimum losses. It seems like none of the western governments are taking it with the seriousness it deserves.
Sometime ago I said that if Cal ever qualifies for the RB, with our luck there would be a huge earthquake in Pasadena and cancel the game.
Well it looks like maybe I was half right. Call has a real shot at the championship this upcoming season when the Covid 19 pandemic might be at its height and all major public gatherings could be cancelled.
Love Mary Roach too. Got to see her talk at the Montclair library on her Gulp book tour. She hung out afterwards for book signing and was very willing to chat, sharing her favorite books and podcasts. A total breath of fresh air!Eastern Oregon Bear said:I haven't read that book, but I've read others by Mary Roach. She has a wicked sense of humor and I've liked her books a lot. I'll have to pick that one up. On a local note, she's from Oakland.LunchTime said:I read a book called "Grunt: The Curious Science of Humans at War" about how far DoD research to prevent troops from dying before they can be shot has brought us in medical fields, including this type of problem.TheFiatLux said:Et tu Big C?Big C said:Cal88 said:
What a coincidence: I was just going to suggest, "Let's find out what Bill Gates thinks about the COVID-19 threat!" After all, he was in the right place at the right time and dropped out of Harvard to start a computer software company and is worth fifty or a hundred billion dollars (so he MUST know about everything).
We're now going to diminish the opinion of people like Bill Gates - to what end? Honestly, you don't think he might have some insight into this the rest of us don't? He's dedicated billions of dollars to eradicating diseases, and I don't mind saying this, he's smarter than most of this board combined (would probably have to remove SebastaBear from that equation because his inclusion might even the scales out for us!).
And then of course we diminish... I mean, he was just in the right place at the right time, right? Or maybe he helped create that place and time.
There is a chapter on the resources Gates Foundation puts into DoD to help fund some research. Gates Foundation is funding defense medical research that the government wont fund. In terms of medical research, I would trust Bill Gates over anyone who isnt a director at a research org. That dude may be a CEO and not a virologist, but he has put his executive skills to work in the field in a way that is probably without peer, and certainly has driven outcomes that would justify making public proclamations about health. He is a long way from MSFT.
I would recommend the book. It has everything from flies on your food to transgender surgery advancements.
Malcolm Gladwell states exactly that: the big computer studs were all born within a few months of each other and were the ones who just happened to gravitate toward computers when the boom was taking off. And Gates received free computer time at UW, so he simply delved into this new field and ended up being THAT guy at the right place at the right time. (Anyone who hasn't read "Outliers" should. A great book.)Big C said:
Thanks for the affirmation, TandemBear, but I need to concede that Cal88 and Fiat Lux have a point. He's probably learned a few things about pandemics the past twenty years or so. I wasn't thinking about what he's surely learned as a result of his foundation. My bad.
Gotta say, Fiat, yes, perhaps I diminished his opinion, but maybe you are magnifying his opinion. Suppose I had learned a whole lot about pandemics because I was donating $100,000 to fight them... would he know more because he's donating $10,000,000,000?
Is Bill Gates intelligent? No doubt. Is he smarter than most of this board combined? Well, I know that was an exaggeration, but c'mon. Smart guy, maybe even brilliant, but he was in the right field, at the right place, at the right time. I'm sure there are whole lot more brilliant people who aren't billionaires, than are.
I'd rather we place our policy decisions on those who've dedicated their lives to medicine and epidemiology and risen to the tops in their fields. THEY are the ones who know how to plan. And if Gates wants to shower them and their agencies with ample funding, then that's the best thing he can do. A rich computer billionaire shouldn't be dictating health policy.
Cal88, I see where you're coming from. But it's really an issue of prioritizing critical supplies.
If the world had more masks than we could use, then yes, everyone could wear them and there would be a (minimal) benefit. But since masks are in limited supply, their most effective use is to put them on the sick. One infected unmasked person walking down an urban street could expose hundreds of people walking by. And the hundreds walking by all don't have masks, so they're getting exposed. (Again, masks are in limited supply.) The ONE mask on that sick person addresses the problem FAR better than putting masks on even 50% of the people walking past.
Now multiply this scenario by a few thousand and you have a huge problem. Hoarding masks, creating limited supply, and NOT prioritizing putting them on the sick is the problem, and multiplies the transmission vectors. And that's how a pandemic comes to fruition.
The only real benefit of masking the well is that you'll inadvertently mask those who are unknowingly sick, who are within the incubation period prior to developing symptoms. Not much we can do about that. We don't have the luxury of that many masks.
If the world had more masks than we could use, then yes, everyone could wear them and there would be a (minimal) benefit. But since masks are in limited supply, their most effective use is to put them on the sick. One infected unmasked person walking down an urban street could expose hundreds of people walking by. And the hundreds walking by all don't have masks, so they're getting exposed. (Again, masks are in limited supply.) The ONE mask on that sick person addresses the problem FAR better than putting masks on even 50% of the people walking past.
Now multiply this scenario by a few thousand and you have a huge problem. Hoarding masks, creating limited supply, and NOT prioritizing putting them on the sick is the problem, and multiplies the transmission vectors. And that's how a pandemic comes to fruition.
The only real benefit of masking the well is that you'll inadvertently mask those who are unknowingly sick, who are within the incubation period prior to developing symptoms. Not much we can do about that. We don't have the luxury of that many masks.
WIth all due respect Tandem, you're replying to something that wasn't suggested. Gates isn't dicating health palicy (and by the way is there another kind of billionaire other than a rich one?). In fact, he has showered many organizations in epidemiology with more funds than they have ever seen in their lives.TandemBear said:Malcolm Gladwell states exactly that: the big computer studs were all born within a few months of each other and were the ones who just happened to gravitate toward computers when the boom was taking off. And Gates received free computer time at UW, so he simply delved into this new field and ended up being THAT guy at the right place at the right time. (Anyone who hasn't read "Outliers" should. A great book.)Big C said:
Thanks for the affirmation, TandemBear, but I need to concede that Cal88 and Fiat Lux have a point. He's probably learned a few things about pandemics the past twenty years or so. I wasn't thinking about what he's surely learned as a result of his foundation. My bad.
Gotta say, Fiat, yes, perhaps I diminished his opinion, but maybe you are magnifying his opinion. Suppose I had learned a whole lot about pandemics because I was donating $100,000 to fight them... would he know more because he's donating $10,000,000,000?
Is Bill Gates intelligent? No doubt. Is he smarter than most of this board combined? Well, I know that was an exaggeration, but c'mon. Smart guy, maybe even brilliant, but he was in the right field, at the right place, at the right time. I'm sure there are whole lot more brilliant people who aren't billionaires, than are.
I'd rather we place our policy decisions on those who've dedicated their lives to medicine and epidemiology and risen to the tops in their fields. THEY are the ones who know how to plan. And if Gates wants to shower them and their agencies with ample funding, then that's the best thing he can do. A rich computer billionaire shouldn't be dictating health policy.
The fact remains, because of his deep interest and in fact his undeniable intelligence, and not unimportantly his not being locked into an orthodoxy, Gates is able to provide insight and perspective that almost no one else on the planet can. The fact he isn't beholden to entrenched political organizations and their fiefdoms, like the WHO for instance, I think would actually give what he says more credence.
Having said all of this, I think we'll be just fine. I also think there is going to be a huge silver lining and we finally accept that China is an awful, unreliable, and now dangerous player on the world stage akin to the former USSR (think Chernoble). We put up with all their attrocioua and numerous human rights abuse because there was money to be made (I've been arguing against this for a long time), but this may finally be the wake up call to change how we do business, move our supply chains, etc... put real pressure , as we did - similarly tho not the same - with he now defunt USSR that Bernie loved so much, and caused it to collapse.
Much like we have a generator on the ready (remember this past summer?), multiple large propane tanks to run it, as noted earlier, we also have a surplus of food and supplies shelved in the garage, the "family store", which gets cycled into the kitchen periodically, then the garage shelves re-stocked on the next Costco run. This includes bottled water, which we don't consume at home, but every year we make it a point to cycle through those too, using them for school field trips, and of course at CMS. Fresh replacement bottles go back on the garage shelf. Similarly, N95 masks go bad, most notably the bands deteriorate. Have rubber bands or the like available as a substitute...
Having to buy things and take action out of immediate need, perceived or legit, in a pressing situation, is most often not desirable, for a few reasons. Won't got into those here, but most are painfully obvious.
As with many things in life, the best time to prepare is well in advance, when time is on your side, there's no pressure or stress and you're level-headed.
Having to buy things and take action out of immediate need, perceived or legit, in a pressing situation, is most often not desirable, for a few reasons. Won't got into those here, but most are painfully obvious.
As with many things in life, the best time to prepare is well in advance, when time is on your side, there's no pressure or stress and you're level-headed.
Sig test...
Unfortunately, health policy in this country is all too rarely driven by those who know best. Rather, in our Citizens United system, it is all too frequently driven by moneyed interests. And I'd rather have Bill Gates' philanthropic money shaping policy than for-profit corporations and the politicians they've bought.TandemBear said:Malcolm Gladwell states exactly that: the big computer studs were all born within a few months of each other and were the ones who just happened to gravitate toward computers when the boom was taking off. And Gates received free computer time at UW, so he simply delved into this new field and ended up being THAT guy at the right place at the right time. (Anyone who hasn't read "Outliers" should. A great book.)Big C said:
Thanks for the affirmation, TandemBear, but I need to concede that Cal88 and Fiat Lux have a point. He's probably learned a few things about pandemics the past twenty years or so. I wasn't thinking about what he's surely learned as a result of his foundation. My bad.
Gotta say, Fiat, yes, perhaps I diminished his opinion, but maybe you are magnifying his opinion. Suppose I had learned a whole lot about pandemics because I was donating $100,000 to fight them... would he know more because he's donating $10,000,000,000?
Is Bill Gates intelligent? No doubt. Is he smarter than most of this board combined? Well, I know that was an exaggeration, but c'mon. Smart guy, maybe even brilliant, but he was in the right field, at the right place, at the right time. I'm sure there are whole lot more brilliant people who aren't billionaires, than are.
I'd rather we place our policy decisions on those who've dedicated their lives to medicine and epidemiology and risen to the tops in their fields. THEY are the ones who know how to plan. And if Gates wants to shower them and their agencies with ample funding, then that's the best thing he can do. A rich computer billionaire shouldn't be dictating health policy.
This claim only makes sense for the people who got out with millions from failed firms. It doesnt make sense for the survivors who make it through the gauntlet of innovation and make billions.TandemBear said:so he simply delved into this new field and ended up being THAT guy at the right place at the right time. (Anyone who hasn't read "Outliers" should. A great book.)Big C said:
Thanks for the affirmation, TandemBear, but I need to concede that Cal88 and Fiat Lux have a point. He's probably learned a few things about pandemics the past twenty years or so. I wasn't thinking about what he's surely learned as a result of his foundation. My bad.
Gotta say, Fiat, yes, perhaps I diminished his opinion, but maybe you are magnifying his opinion. Suppose I had learned a whole lot about pandemics because I was donating $100,000 to fight them... would he know more because he's donating $10,000,000,000?
Is Bill Gates intelligent? No doubt. Is he smarter than most of this board combined? Well, I know that was an exaggeration, but c'mon. Smart guy, maybe even brilliant, but he was in the right field, at the right place, at the right time. I'm sure there are whole lot more brilliant people who aren't billionaires, than are.
The public health response leaves a bit of uncertainty between "Don't buy mask, you're taking them away from health care professionals" and "Don't buy masks because they do not work"? The difference has not been explained well at all. Additionally I am not too smart but not stupid enough to believe that they help health care workers, they may help me if needed. The big point is not being part of a greedy run on same such that HCPs are denied.OaktownBear said:Cal88 said:
Buying masks for personal use way ahead of the curve is the equivalent of clearing bushes around your house in anticipation of the fire, as opposed to running your hose during the fire. When the fire hits, your water will be cut off anyway, there are no more masks available in the marketplace now.
Your response to BarcaBear doesn't make much sense, you're saying that mask use for the general public is not useful because they don't wash their hands enough. You don't need to wash your hands every hour, as long as you never touch your eyes, mouth or inside your nose and you should avoid shaking hands and hugging people in the next few months anyway.If you're BARTing to work or commuting taking crowded public transit in a big city, or flying, you're going to get shot at. That's probably the reason the virus has been hitting countries like China, S. Korea and Japan particularly hard. As well in China people get chastised (or worse) for going out without a mask, their health guidelines stipulate wearing masks outside your home, for a reason. I understand the public health agenda right now is about prioritizing and rationalizing the current scarcity, but no need to bend the truth when forcing that "public health general consensus" message through unfiltered.Quote:
It's like taking bulletproof vests away from soldiers on the front lines and randomly handing them out to people who have a small chance at being shot at.
I thought the panic would hit stateside in the middle of March, it looks like it's already started. My main point was that there has been a lot of apathy and dismissal of the potential gravity of this epidemic, and have already been vindicated.
Schools and colleges should be suspended right now, air travel curtailed, telecommuting encouraged etc AHEAD of the wave, what we will get instead is those measures applied by the middle or lat March when the epidemic will have already reached critical mass. No need to blame Trump for this, countries like Canada have done a worse job using their 1-2 months lead time to prepare for this.
Clearing brush around your house does not take tools away from authorities. Buying up masks faster than they can be produced does.
Regarding the effectiveness of arming the general public with masks, I am amazed how many health issues you like to come on here and tell everyone you know better than the actual professionals. Most people are saying to be very careful. What they are not doing is replacing the judgment of the professionals with their own. The most important thing in this situation is an intelligent, coordinated response. Not everyone going off half cocked.
You are not vindicated. Italy is taking a very coordinated response to areas infected while also saying why the hell are people freaking out in areas that are not.
No one is dismissing the threat. They are saying follow the advice of the professionals.
By the way, everyone in China has masks. They wear the things at the drop of a hat. Many wear them every day with no threat. I guarantee you they were all wearing their masks at the first sign of trouble. Doesn't seem to have helped them
With that I have bought 2 N95 masks at True Value hardware, where I think they were not going to health care professionals, but to the next person in line that chose to buy them. One for my wife, one for me. Not to be worn now, or maybe never, but having them available at some point in the future if needed. I do not see that as impacting health care workers, nor do I see that as individual greed. I look at it as protective prevention if needed.
With one's medical care, one must be their own #1 advocate. Being a cancer survivor I understand that explicitly. Being a retired HCP, I understand what the cautionings are about. Unfortunately middle ground does not survive well in America, especially lately.
N95 offers 5X protection of going unmasked based on my research.
Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside
bearister said:
N95 offers 5X protection of going unmasked based on my research.
My mask is a real party favorite, especially on new year's eve!
Blueblood said:bearister said:
N95 offers 5X protection of going unmasked based on my research.
My mask is a real party favorite, especially on new year's eve!
Well, there is historical support for the effectiveness of your mask. Ned Kelly never contracted COVID 19. He did, however, have a rope allergy.
Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside
Different folks, different strokes. Not sure my N95 will look much better though.Blueblood said:bearister said:
N95 offers 5X protection of going unmasked based on my research.
My mask is a real party favorite, especially on new year's eve!
West AsiaGo!Bears said:So what is the area at the eastern edge of the Mediterranean and around the Persian gulf?01Bear said:
Do you live in Europe or something? How is China the Far East, especially for those of us in California? Yes, I understand that's how it was referred for centuries by the Europeans, but given (1) we know the Earth is round and (2) we (mostly) live in California, shouldn't China be considered the Near West?
I'm not going to challenge your economic speculations, but I do challenge your data regarding mortality rate. I was at the Gala last night and had a lengthy discussion with several microbiology profs (including a nobel laureate). They argue that the mortality rate is likely to be no more than 1%. Why? because of the high rate of non-symptomatic infection which artificially lowers the denominator in published data. In other words, there are likely many more cases than reported, whereas the deaths are more likely accurate. Now, I realize that the level of knowledge of nobel prize winners in MCB pales in comparison to those on BI, but they do have something to contribute, perhaps?
btw, regarding Bill Gates, my favorite conspiracy theory on the hard right is that the virus was developed in a lab run by Gates in order for him to peddle a vaccine that his lab is developing. The vaccine will contain microchips so that he (as a member of the Zionist Illuminati) can control the world.
btw, regarding Bill Gates, my favorite conspiracy theory on the hard right is that the virus was developed in a lab run by Gates in order for him to peddle a vaccine that his lab is developing. The vaccine will contain microchips so that he (as a member of the Zionist Illuminati) can control the world.
TheFiatLux said:Well, I hope you're pleased with yourself.GivemTheAxe said:auberge said:Chicken Little was right.Cal88 said:
The epidemic has started to spread outside of China and east Asia, school is cancelled in Milan, Italy, and championship soccer games last week have been played without any spectators. By March most soccer games in Europe will be played with empty stands. All classes in northern Italian universities have been suspended.
I will guess this virus will hit CA and N. America in March, and the maximum impact will be felt by April, with schools cancelled. I think the NCAA BB tourney will be disrupted, if it does go on at all, it will be in empty arenas.
The epidemic will present special challenges in large cities, with the large homeless population and overcrowded prisons that will turn into virtual quarantine wards.
I think the Tokyo Olympics will probably be cancelled or postponed to next Summer.
It's hard to assess the impact on the upcoming Fall football season, but chances are classes and finals will be cancelled this term, and Summer School might be cancelled as well.
This is an unprecedented black swan crisis, the worst pandemic since the Spanish Flu. I hope we can weather it with minimum losses. It seems like none of the western governments are taking it with the seriousness it deserves.
Sometime ago I said that if Cal ever qualifies for the RB, with our luck there would be a huge earthquake in Pasadena and cancel the game.
Well it looks like maybe I was half right. Call has a real shot at the championship this upcoming season when the Covid 19 pandemic might be at its height and all major public gatherings could be cancelled.
Well maybe the game can be played in an empty stadium. And we can all watch the game on TV. .
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