GBear4Life said:
Barkley gets it right. Maybe only slightly hyperbolic. The 'no Durant, no dynasty' part is on point.
Barkley is a moron.
The Warriors won a championship without Durant.
The Warriors put up the best record ever without Durant and then lost a close game 7 in the championship.
Curry was two time MVP. He didn't suddenly become a lesser player. He reduced his role to make room for Durant.
The Warriors would have been considered the favorite going into 2016 if they kept the team as it was. Durant made them a prohibitive favorite, but they still would have been the favorite.
The Warriors ate 26-1 with Curry playing and Durant not playing. Without Durant they are still an amazing team.
You can't just say "The Warriors rate 100 with Durant. He is worth 30. So they are 70 without him." It ain't that way. Curry, Green, Thompson, and Igoudala would all have contributed more if they never had Durant. Relevant to this moment, yes it is true that Current Warriors without Durant are not as good as 2015 Warriors. They essentially traded Barnes and a much more productive bench for Durant. But the core 4 players are still there.
IMO, the main obstacle for this team the last 2 years has been their ennui. I thought that might bite them last year and it almost did. It has continued this season. IMO, if they were challenged in the regular season last year, the Rocket series is never as close as it was. I think there is a reason their record is so good without Durant. They know they need to bring it.
We will never know, but my suspicion is that if Durant never came here, the Warriors would still be favorites though much closer. Dependent largely on how good the team who landed Durant would have been.
Houston is a very good team. IMO, Houston is a 60-40 favorite at home and those numbers flip in Oakland. I'd expect two close games, with either potentially going either way.
I'll add this. The mental intangibles are all on the Warriors side now. If the Warriors lose, everyone will say it is because of Durant. The downside is a lot lower for them. Also, they believe they can win without him because they have.
If the Rockets lose they will get massacred. It is potentially the end for them. If they can't beat the Warriors now, when will they ever do it? Losing yesterday already plants that doubt. It is time for Paul and Harden to rise to the biggest moment. If they do, it will be a first for them.
I also think a lot of the comments on the Warriors are based on the assumption that somehow their chances of winning should be 100%. So if they become a 60% favorite, somehow that equates to "they are going to lose". With 2 games to win one, the Warriors are a strong favorite to survive long enough to get Durant back. And if the injury turns out worse than it appears, they will be the favorites in the Western Conference Finals. They may be underdogs if they get to the finals, but they will have an excellent shot.