The Economy

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dajo9
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In reply to DiabloWags • 2:36p, 1/7/26
DiabloWags said:
Can't wait for the bond market vigilantes to make a return.
That 4.13% yield on the 10-year is pure fantasy.



Bond vigilantes are a thing of the past. A relic of consolidated wealth scarcity.
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Aunburdened
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12:12a, 1/8/26
Any improvement in the lives of the working class under a Republican President and Congress is always accidental at best, so nobody with a sense of history should have expected any better, but the following is patently obvious.

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BearlySane88
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6:37a, 1/8/26
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DiabloWags
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In reply to BearlySane88 • 7:54a, 1/8/26
BearlySane88 said:


Exports of Gold and other metals rose by roughly $10 Billion in October.
More than accounting for the entirety of the roughly $7 Billion month-on-month increase in exports overall.

Hope this helps educate you on what actually happened.
It's much more informative than the absurd "cheerleading" that is done here via tweets without context.





Trade deficit plunges to 16-year low due to U.S. gold rush and shrinking imports - MarketWatch

https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/u-s-trade-deficit-shrank-to-multidecade-low-in-october-9e9a2ab2?st=CfhVZE&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
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BearlySane88
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In reply to DiabloWags • 10:10a, 1/8/26
So CNBC isn't reliable?

Good to know
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DiabloWags
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In reply to BearlySane88 • 10:54a, 1/8/26
BearlySane88 said:
So CNBC isn't reliable?

Good to know


No.
Just people that don't know how trade deficits are calculated.

The movement of physical GOLD in and out of the country and its impact on the trade deficit has been brought to your attention here last month when September's Trade Deficit was announced.

But for some reason, there are people in this forum that aren't interested in LEARNING.
Imagine that?


More TARIFFS - Page 31 | Bear Insider


"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
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BearlySane88
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In reply to DiabloWags • 11:48a, 1/8/26
So the guy on CNBC doesn't want to learn either? I'm not trying to argue with you but it was his words that were quoted.

So either he doesn't know what you know or he lied?
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DiabloWags
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In reply to BearlySane88 • 12:10p, 1/8/26
BearlySane88 said:
So the guy on CNBC doesn't want to learn either? I'm not trying to argue with you but it was his words that were quoted.

So either he doesn't know what you know or he lied?


I would suggest that he is unaware of what is widely known.
Especially given the impact of GOLD on the previous month's trade deficit (Sept)

This is just Basic Econ 1 stuff.

Trade Deficit = Total Imports - Total Exports

There were Exports of $10 Billion in Gold and Silver in October (decreased the deficit)
There were Imports of $9.6 Billion in Gold and $1.3 Billion in Silver.in September (increased the deficit)

Trade deficit hits 13-month high as US exports fall 12%, gold imports surge | Economy & Policy News - Business Standard

"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
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BearlySane88
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In reply to DiabloWags • 1:10p, 1/8/26
Why is CNBC hiring people who don't know Econ 1 level stuff?

I've said before on this board that the economy/financials are not my area of expertise at all. It seems strange that they would have this guy on the air when he doesn't even have freshman level Econ knowledge
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DiabloWags
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In reply to BearlySane88 • 1:42p, 1/8/26
BearlySane88 said:
Why is CNBC hiring people who don't know Econ 1 level stuff?

I've said before on this board that the economy/financials are not my area of expertise at all. It seems strange that they would have this guy on the air when he doesn't even have freshman level Econ knowledge


Were you watching Rick Santelli on CNBC?

Santelli was a former floor trader in Chicago who couldn't make a living doing so anymore.
So in 1999 he joined CNBC full time.

He's a noted Tea Party guy and a Trumper.

He should know better.
But perhaps his Orange Man cheerleading "pom-poms" got in the way of his brain.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/01/08/productivity-jumps-labor-costs-ease-layoffs-edge-higher.html



"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
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BearlySane88
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In reply to DiabloWags • 2:12p, 1/8/26
No clue who he is, the video is posted up above
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BearlySane88
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2:40p, 1/8/26


Thoughts on this?
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PAC-10-BEAR
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4:37p, 1/8/26

Inverse Cramer really knows how to pick 'em!
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PAC-10-BEAR
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11:06p, 1/8/26
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PAC-10-BEAR
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11:07p, 1/8/26
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dajo9
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7:00a, 1/9/26
Job growth by year since Obama's 2nd term recovery from the Great Recession. The worst 3 years are the last 3 years Trump has been President.

2021 - 7.2 million Biden
2022 - 4.6 million Biden
2014 - 3.0 million Obama
2015 - 2.7 million Obama
2023 - 2.6 million Biden
2016 - 2.3 million Obama
2018 - 2.3 million Trump
2013 - 2.1 million Obama
2017 - 2.1 million Trump
2024 - 2.0 million Biden
2019 - 2.0 million Trump
2025 - 0.6 million Trump (revisions to come)
2020 - (9.2) million Trump

If you want to cry about covid (but still blame Biden for covid inflation) I can remove the jobs lost and recovered. It doesn't change the story that Trump is a terrible jobs President.

2014 - 3.0 million Obama
2015 - 2.7 million Obama
2022 - 2.6 million Biden
2023 - 2.6 million Biden
2016 - 2.3 million Obama
2018 - 2.3 million Trump
2013 - 2.1 million Obama
2017 - 2.1 million Trump
2024 - 2.0 million Biden
2019 - 2.0 million Trump
2025 - 0.6 million Trump (revisions to come)
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DiabloWags
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In reply to dajo9 • 7:20a, 1/9/26
You are correct.

Payroll employment rose by 584,000 in 2025.
That was DOWN from an increase of 2 million in 2024 under Biden.

The December Employment Report came out this morning at +50,000
Less than expected.

Payroll gains for October were revised DOWN by 68,000 from - 105,000 to -173,000

Payroll gains for November were also revised DOWN by 8,000

The labor market appears to have been weaker at the end of 2025 than initially thought.

Who will Trump be firing now at the Labor Dept.???




Economy added 50,000 jobs in December while unemployment fell slightly

U.S. payrolls rose 50,000 in December, less than expected; unemployment rate falls to 4.4%



"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
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dajo9
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7:57a, 1/9/26
Furthermore, Trump's chaotic America has things moving in the wrong direction for 2025

Q1 +333k jobs
Q2 +164k jobs
Q3 +154k jobs
Q4 -67k jobs
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BearlySane88
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In reply to dajo9 • 9:17a, 1/9/26
That'll happen when you cut a ton of wasteful government jobs
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movielover
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In reply to BearlySane88 • 10:02a, 1/9/26
Boom!!! But... but... but... Orange Man bad.

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PAC-10-BEAR
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4:25p, 1/9/26
Boom!!! But... but... but... Orange Man bad.

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PAC-10-BEAR
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4:38p, 1/9/26

Bessent Beast Mode.
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Eastern Oregon Bear
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In reply to BearlySane88 • 6:43p, 1/9/26
BearlySane88 said:
That'll happen when you cut a ton of wasteful government jobs

As someone watching from the inside, I don't think finding wasteful jobs was even a minor consideration and they went about it in an extremely wasteful way. Paying departing employees to sit at home doing nothing useful for 6 months?
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BearlySane88
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In reply to Eastern Oregon Bear • 6:54p, 1/9/26
Eastern Oregon Bear said:
BearlySane88 said:
That'll happen when you cut a ton of wasteful government jobs

I don't think finding wasteful jobs was even a minor consideration


You know Trump ran on clearing waste, fraud and abuse right?

Pretty sure it was a lot more than a minor consideration lmao
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dajo9
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In reply to Eastern Oregon Bear • 7:14p, 1/9/26
Eastern Oregon Bear said:
BearlySane88 said:
That'll happen when you cut a ton of wasteful government jobs

As someone watching from the inside, I don't think finding wasteful jobs was even a minor consideration and they went about it in an extremely wasteful way. Paying departing employees to sit at home doing nothing useful for 6 months?


There you go, EOB. Trump ran on it. So you're personal experience means nothing.
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BearlySane88
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In reply to dajo9 • 7:30p, 1/9/26
dajo9 said:
Eastern Oregon Bear said:
BearlySane88 said:
That'll happen when you cut a ton of wasteful government jobs

As someone watching from the inside, I don't think finding wasteful jobs was even a minor consideration and they went about it in an extremely wasteful way. Paying departing employees to sit at home doing nothing useful for 6 months?


There you go, EOB. Trump ran on it. So you're personal experience means nothing.


Lol that's not what I said at all but good try
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Eastern Oregon Bear
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In reply to dajo9 • 7:39p, 1/9/26
dajo9 said:
Eastern Oregon Bear said:
BearlySane88 said:
That'll happen when you cut a ton of wasteful government jobs

As someone watching from the inside, I don't think finding wasteful jobs was even a minor consideration and they went about it in an extremely wasteful way. Paying departing employees to sit at home doing nothing useful for 6 months?


There you go, EOB. Trump ran on it. So your personal experience means nothing.

Our office had about a quarter of the staff decide to sit at home and collect a paycheck. I don't blame them. I considered doing the same. Our agency decided to pay moving expenses up to $100,000 to induce other employees to transfer to our office. One did. For months, it also flew in employees from other offices for 2 week stints to help us out. They had to be lodged in hotels and given per dorm for meals, etc. We also reduced services since we didn't have the people to do everything. That's over now, but we appear to be permanently short staffed and people getting sick is much more of an issue that it used to be. To top it off, we're now hiring people back nationally to cover the overall staff shortages. However, at the current hiring rate, it will take several years to get back to reasonable staffing levels. But, hey, Trump ran on eliminating waste, so obviously waste didn't happen. After all, Trump never lies.
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BearlySane88
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In reply to Eastern Oregon Bear • 7:43p, 1/9/26
Eastern Oregon Bear said:
dajo9 said:
Eastern Oregon Bear said:
BearlySane88 said:
That'll happen when you cut a ton of wasteful government jobs

As someone watching from the inside, I don't think finding wasteful jobs was even a minor consideration and they went about it in an extremely wasteful way. Paying departing employees to sit at home doing nothing useful for 6 months?


There you go, EOB. Trump ran on it. So your personal experience means nothing.

Our office had about a quarter of the staff decide to sit at home and collect a paycheck. I don't blame them. I considered doing the same. Our agency decided to pay moving expenses up to $100,000 to induce other employees to transfer to our office. One did. For months, it also flew in employees from other offices for 2 week stints to help us out. They had to be lodged in hotels and given per dorm for meals, etc. We also reduced services since we didn't have the people to do everything. That's over now, but we appear to be permanently short staffed and people getting sick is much more of an issue that it used to be. To top it off, we're now hiring people back nationally to cover the overall staff shortages. However, at the current hiring rate, it will take several years to get back to reasonable staffing levels. But, hey, Trump ran on eliminating waste, so obviously waste didn't happen. After all, Trump never lies.


What's the amount saved by firing everyone vs the costs you just described? Up front sure looks like a loss maybe but long term it will save money.
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movielover
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In reply to BearlySane88 • 9:06p, 1/9/26
Ending USAID, USIP, and Dept of Education were big.

CONgress has no stomach to cut waste and profligate spending. Look at the widescale fraud in Minnesota and hundreds of Whistleblowers threatened.
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DiabloWags
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In reply to BearlySane88 • 7:41a, 1/10/26
BearlySane88 said:
Eastern Oregon Bear said:
BearlySane88 said:
That'll happen when you cut a ton of wasteful government jobs

I don't think finding wasteful jobs was even a minor consideration


You know Trump ran on clearing waste, fraud and abuse right?

Pretty sure it was a lot more than a minor consideration lmao


You know that Trump ran on:

"No more Wars"

"No more regime change"

"No more nation building"

"No more being the world's policeman"

How is he doing so far?

"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
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BearlySane88
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In reply to DiabloWags • 8:00a, 1/10/26
DiabloWags said:
BearlySane88 said:
Eastern Oregon Bear said:
BearlySane88 said:
That'll happen when you cut a ton of wasteful government jobs

I don't think finding wasteful jobs was even a minor consideration


You know Trump ran on clearing waste, fraud and abuse right?

Pretty sure it was a lot more than a minor consideration lmao


You know that Trump ran on:

"No more Wars"

"No more regime change"

"No more nation building"

"No more being the world's policeman"

How is he doing so far?



I'd vote for him again if I could. Hope that helps buddy

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DiabloWags
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In reply to BearlySane88 • 8:11a, 1/10/26
BearlySane88 said:
DiabloWags said:
BearlySane88 said:
Eastern Oregon Bear said:
BearlySane88 said:
That'll happen when you cut a ton of wasteful government jobs

I don't think finding wasteful jobs was even a minor consideration


You know Trump ran on clearing waste, fraud and abuse right?

Pretty sure it was a lot more than a minor consideration lmao


You know that Trump ran on:

"No more Wars"

"No more regime change"

"No more nation building"

"No more being the world's policeman"

How is he doing so far?



I'd vote for him again if I could. Hope that helps buddy



I'm not surprised that people that don't honor their word support others that do the same and lie.
Birds of a feather flock together.



"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
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BearlySane88
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In reply to DiabloWags • 8:21a, 1/10/26
DiabloWags said:
BearlySane88 said:
DiabloWags said:
BearlySane88 said:
Eastern Oregon Bear said:
BearlySane88 said:
That'll happen when you cut a ton of wasteful government jobs

I don't think finding wasteful jobs was even a minor consideration


You know Trump ran on clearing waste, fraud and abuse right?

Pretty sure it was a lot more than a minor consideration lmao


You know that Trump ran on:

"No more Wars"

"No more regime change"

"No more nation building"

"No more being the world's policeman"

How is he doing so far?



I'd vote for him again if I could. Hope that helps buddy



I'm not surprised that people that don't honor their word support others that do the same and lie.
Birds of a feather flock together.





I could drop some personal attacks about your flock but I'm trying to be better about that. This is funny though especially after you called out another poster this morning for what you perceived as personal attacks.

Honor my word? Oh you mean by putting you on ignore? Well because you think you know everything you must be right about this…. News flash, I did put you on ignore for two days, to give myself a break from your bragging and holier than thou attitude. I didn't leave you on ignore because I believe in free speech and I like to be surrounded by people who don't all think exactly like me. Varied opinions are good, even if you don't agree with them.

I've made this very clear, over and over, that the #1 reason I voted for Trump was to close the borders and remove as many illegal aliens as possible.

I have probably made this less clear but the #2 reason was to get rid of all the wasteful spending on government funded programs that have no impact on this country.

Guess what my #3 reason was for voting for Trump? He wasn't Kamala.
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DiabloWags
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In reply to BearlySane88 • 8:39a, 1/10/26
So you'd vote for Trump all over again knowing full well that he's pardoned CONVICTED FELONS like drug traffickers such as ex-Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez and the founder of Binance, Changpeng Zhao - - - whose willfull disregard for the law led to money laundering by known terrorist organizations like Hamas, Al Qaeda, and ISIS?

Got it.
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
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BearlySane88
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In reply to DiabloWags • 8:44a, 1/10/26
DiabloWags said:
So you'd vote for Trump all over again knowing full well that he's pardoned CONVICTED FELONS like drug traffickers such as ex-Honduran President Hernandez and the founder of Binance, Zhao - - - whose willfull disregard for the law led to money laundering by known terrorist organizations?

Got it.


Ain't nobody perfect bud, of course I'm not gonna agree with everything he does. Did you agree with everything Biden did? Clinton? Of course not, don't be ridiculous. You voted for Kamala and she got a lot of convicted felons out of jail during her time as DA.

Good job ignoring my whole post because I told you why I'd vote for him again.

Have a great day, would love to have a debate with you when you choose to do so in good faith.

Go Bears!
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