The Economy

152,198 Views | 2089 Replies | Last: 11 hrs ago by cal83dls79
smh
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funk truck
< Im not sick, but im not well; sometimes it feels.. >
PAC-10-BEAR
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smh said:

funk truck

PAC-10-BEAR
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We back.
BearlySane88
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Wags has been awfully silent today during this market rebound. I always look forward to seeing how he spins things against Trump
BearlySane88
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PAC-10-BEAR
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Projection is now confirmation.
PAC-10-BEAR
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BearlySane88
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I think our resident economist got a time out for dissing the board owners or he doesn't know how to spin all this to point negatively at Trump.

I'm genuinely curious how he would view this and what his spin on it all would be.
BearlySane88
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Seems like it's going up not down…
dajo9
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By my estimate, Trump saved me $30k in Federal taxes for 2025, which i plan to use to increase my bid to buy another investment property.
BearlySane88
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Cal88
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Good overview of the ongoing silver price spike:

Cal88
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Cal88
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DiabloWags
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CRAZY!

From $117 down to almost $102.
Now bouncing back to $110.

Maybe we should start a SILVER THREAD.

"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
tequila4kapp
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BearlySane88 said:



I am paying an arm and a leg for a kid's college so I have no idea who these people are that think education is affordable. Likewise, I'm about to take it in the shorts on a home sale / purchase during a relocation, so same reaction about housing. And healthcare…
BearlySane88
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tequila4kapp said:

BearlySane88 said:



I am paying an arm and a leg for a kid's college so I have no idea who these people are that think education is affordable. Likewise, I'm about to take it in the shorts on a home sale / purchase during a relocation, so same reaction about housing. And healthcare…


Most people don't think any of those things are affordable according to the poll but that's not new to Trump
DiabloWags
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tequila4kapp said:

I am paying an arm and a leg for a kid's college so I have no idea who these people are that think education is affordable. Likewise, I'm about to take it in the shorts on a home sale / purchase during a relocation, so same reaction about housing. And healthcare…


I think that many Americans are in the same boat as you.

Tuition is out of control (my GF's daughter is at Presentation High School in San Jose and its $31,000 a year) and housing is obviously a reach for the majority of Americans, especially here in CA . . . and Healthcare is literally unaffordable now.

And mind you, this is with an incredibly strong stock market that has led to increased household wealth.

From the NY Times / Siena Affordability Poll:

Americans are deeply pessimistic about their economic future, driven by financial anxiety among all but the oldest Americans and by a widespread belief that a middle-class lifestyle is out of reach for most people, a New York Times/Siena poll found.

While a majority of people said that they could afford basics like rent, gas and groceries, most said they worry about the costs, and there was a pronounced sense that it has become more difficult, if not nearly impossible, to get ahead in America today.

Majorities of voters said they do not feel confident in their ability to pay for housing, retirement and health care, all traditional staples of a middle-class lifestyle. Separately, more than half said housing and education are now so expensive that both have become unaffordable.

Those rising costs have shifted perceptions of America as a place of upward economic mobility dominated by a comfortable middle class. Two-thirds of voters said they now think a middle-class lifestyle is out of reach for most people, and 77 percent say it has gotten harder to achieve than a generation ago.

The economic worries persist across geographic, gender and racial lines. The only voters who seem less stressed economically are those over age 65, who express far fewer concerns about costs.

Taken together, the findings illustrate how economic anxieties, feelings of insecurity and a bleak outlook for the future have continued to weigh on most voters despite a booming stock market and resilient consumer spending.
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
movielover
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TC had a guest on recently who claims real estate is again over valued thanks to the super cheap mortgage rates we had for a number of years.
tequila4kapp
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movielover said:

TC had a guest on recently who claims real estate is again over valued thanks to the super cheap mortgage rates we had for a number of years.

Those rates are a problem. Saturdays 30 year fixed was 6%, which is good / solid. But there is almost no new inventory in the two otherwise robust markets I'm following. Maybe that's a seasonal thing. I suspect a lot of people won't leave their low rate for the higher one and that's affecting the market.
movielover
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Do you agree homes are over valued?

And not enough homes being built, which is partly addressed by large-scale deportations.
Eastern Oregon Bear
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movielover said:

Do you agree homes are over valued?

And not enough homes being built, which is partly addressed by large-scale deportations.

Are you suggesting that deportations (including many construction workers) will lead to more homes being built? Or that deportations will lead to more existing homes being put on the market (we are deporting home owners)?
tequila4kapp
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movielover said:

Do you agree homes are over valued?

And not enough homes being built, which is partly addressed by large-scale deportations.
Im not sure how to answer that. Things are worth what someone will pay. In one of the 2 markets I'm closely following that has gone down about 5% in the last 18 months.
cal83dls79
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"How to increase housing supply by removing the worst of the worst in America". - BI Insider

"How to increase housing supply by scaring away legal roofers and framers". -BI Insider

"Low mortgage rates means more people can afford homes when times are good but there are issues when rates rise" - BI Insider
Priest of the Patty Hearst Shrine
DiabloWags
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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

movielover said:

Do you agree homes are over valued?

And not enough homes being built, which is partly addressed by large-scale deportations.

Are you suggesting that deportations (including many construction workers) will lead to more homes being built? Or that deportations will lead to more existing homes being put on the market (we are deporting home owners)?


This is yet another reason why I wished the IGNORE feature was actually a 100% ignore feature.
If it was, I wouldn't have to read such ridiculous claims that repeatedly pollute threads like this.

Someone here is actually claiming that large scale deportations will result in more housing supply?
Absurd.



"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
cal83dls79
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On a more serious note. What about the proposal put on the table to allow folks to tap their 401ks to finance their homes? I'm with Trump on this but for different reasons. He's worrried the stick market wound take a hit whereas I generally viewed my 401k as sacrosanct especially avoiding high risk investments …plus this doesn't seem to make tax sense… although I didn't look at that aspect deeply. The expansion of exotic investments into the 401k pool is not for me. But I'm all ears
Priest of the Patty Hearst Shrine
DiabloWags
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One of the biggest issues that I see is that you wind up losing the compounding power.

If you tap into those 401k funds, you wind up disrupting the ability to compound your gains. The longer you can compound, the more power it has.

But what you can't replace in the market is time.
It's not a good idea.

The other obvious issue is that securities are extremely liquid.
Home ownership is not.

And when it comes to retire, you can't use that equity unless you sell the house.

Giving people more "options" to get themselves (into trouble) isn't always a good thing.


"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
movielover
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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

movielover said:

Do you agree homes are over valued?

And not enough homes being built, which is partly addressed by large-scale deportations.

Are you suggesting that deportations (including many construction workers) will lead to more homes being built? Or that deportations will lead to more existing homes being put on the market (we are deporting home owners)?


Deportations will lead to more supply available (reduced demand).

Just as removing illegal immigrants from Federal programs (HUD, home purchase assistance) will aid citizens, seniors, veterans, and legal residents.

Better wages and job stability would attract more American workers, though I don't see a robust training strategy and a lot of our young people are hooked on electronics and recreational drugs.
oski003
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DiabloWags said:

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

movielover said:

Do you agree homes are over valued?

And not enough homes being built, which is partly addressed by large-scale deportations.

Are you suggesting that deportations (including many construction workers) will lead to more homes being built? Or that deportations will lead to more existing homes being put on the market (we are deporting home owners)?


This is yet another reason why I wished the IGNORE feature was actually a 100% ignore feature.
If it was, I wouldn't have to read such ridiculous claims that repeatedly pollute threads like this.

Someone here is actually claiming that large scale deportations will result in more housing supply?
Absurd.




Are you Bear Insider's version of Alex DeLarge? Who is forcing this upon you?
Anarchistbear
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movielover
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How much has fraud impacted this?
tequila4kapp
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Per AI the average 401k for a 35 year old is between 75-100k but the median is about 43k. Even if the idea is good I'm not sure how many people it helps in a meaningful way.

I agree with you about compounding interest and time. I generally did "the right" stuff with my 401k my entire working life. Investment types, contribution amounts, long term approach, etc. For years it seemed inconsequential. But these last 10 years or so heading into an early retirement have seen meaningful change. One day you wake up and you are paper "rich." Add in a house and voila you've got stuff that can change your kid's lives when it's time to push up daisies.
movielover
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DiabloWags said:

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

movielover said:

Do you agree homes are over valued?

And not enough homes being built, which is partly addressed by large-scale deportations.

Are you suggesting that deportations (including many construction workers) will lead to more homes being built? Or that deportations will lead to more existing homes being put on the market (we are deporting home owners)?


This is yet another reason why I wished the IGNORE feature was actually a 100% ignore feature.
If it was, I wouldn't have to read such ridiculous claims that repeatedly pollute threads like this.

Someone here is actually claiming that large scale deportations will result in more housing supply?
Absurd.





Reduced demand.
DiabloWags
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oski003 said:

DiabloWags said:

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

movielover said:

Do you agree homes are over valued?

And not enough homes being built, which is partly addressed by large-scale deportations.

Are you suggesting that deportations (including many construction workers) will lead to more homes being built? Or that deportations will lead to more existing homes being put on the market (we are deporting home owners)?


This is yet another reason why I wished the IGNORE feature was actually a 100% ignore feature.
If it was, I wouldn't have to read such ridiculous claims that repeatedly pollute threads like this.

Someone here is actually claiming that large scale deportations will result in more housing supply?
Absurd.




Are you Bear Insider's version of Alex DeLarge? Who is forcing this upon you?


If the IGNORE feature truly functioned in a 100% effective manner, we wouldn't have to read people making highly false, erroneous statements like the one above. - - - It's pretty simple.




"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
DiabloWags
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Highly false, erroneous statements like this . . .
Quote:



oski003 said:

Foreign countries directly pay the tariffs



A Viking Foreign Policy - by Andrew Sullivan | Bear Insider
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
 
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