The Economy

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BearlySane88
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tequila4kapp
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dajo9 said:

dajo9 said:

Job growth by year since Obama's 2nd term recovery from the Great Recession. The worst 3 years are the last 3 years Trump has been President.

2021 - 7.2 million Biden
2022 - 4.6 million Biden
2014 - 3.0 million Obama
2015 - 2.7 million Obama
2023 - 2.6 million Biden
2016 - 2.3 million Obama
2018 - 2.3 million Trump
2013 - 2.1 million Obama
2017 - 2.1 million Trump
2024 - 2.0 million Biden
2019 - 2.0 million Trump
2025 - 0.6 million Trump (revisions to come)
2020 - (9.2) million Trump

If you want to cry about covid (but still blame Biden for covid inflation) I can remove the jobs lost and recovered. It doesn't change the story that Trump is a terrible jobs President.

2014 - 3.0 million Obama
2015 - 2.7 million Obama
2022 - 2.6 million Biden
2023 - 2.6 million Biden
2016 - 2.3 million Obama
2018 - 2.3 million Trump
2013 - 2.1 million Obama
2017 - 2.1 million Trump
2024 - 2.0 million Biden
2019 - 2.0 million Trump
2025 - 0.6 million Trump (revisions to come)



The raw numbers likely don't really tell the whole story.

From Econofact:

"The American job market took a large hit due to the COVID-19 pandemic: there were 150.9 million jobs at the beginning of March 2020 ***. In June 2024, 158.6 million jobs were recorded by the Bureau of Labor Statistics."

According to a 2023 House committee (partisan) @75% of Biden's job numbers were lost COVID jobs. According to other sources, nearly 25% of Biden jobs created from late 2022 through the end of his term were government jobs. So that is a net gain of between 4-8m jobs, of which 1-2 were government sector.

3-6 million jobs is still better than Trump's job numbers, which are bad. But note that unemployment under Trump only increase .4% in 2025. Do we not consider it weird that essentially no new hiring and no new unemployment (figuratively, not literally) is simultaneously happening? That is a clue that something bigger as at play.

We know we are somewhere on the bell curve of an AI revolution where automation is replacing humans. We are also experiencing mass deportation of illegals. And we know the Trump admin intentionally reduced net government jobs by about 10% in 2025. It seems highly probable there is something more sophisticated going on with the Trump job numbers related to a transformation of the workforce/workplace.
Anarchistbear
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The economy is good for capital and better.
cal83dls79
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tequila4kapp said:

dajo9 said:

dajo9 said:

Job growth by year since Obama's 2nd term recovery from the Great Recession. The worst 3 years are the last 3 years Trump has been President.

2021 - 7.2 million Biden
2022 - 4.6 million Biden
2014 - 3.0 million Obama
2015 - 2.7 million Obama
2023 - 2.6 million Biden
2016 - 2.3 million Obama
2018 - 2.3 million Trump
2013 - 2.1 million Obama
2017 - 2.1 million Trump
2024 - 2.0 million Biden
2019 - 2.0 million Trump
2025 - 0.6 million Trump (revisions to come)
2020 - (9.2) million Trump

If you want to cry about covid (but still blame Biden for covid inflation) I can remove the jobs lost and recovered. It doesn't change the story that Trump is a terrible jobs President.

2014 - 3.0 million Obama
2015 - 2.7 million Obama
2022 - 2.6 million Biden
2023 - 2.6 million Biden
2016 - 2.3 million Obama
2018 - 2.3 million Trump
2013 - 2.1 million Obama
2017 - 2.1 million Trump
2024 - 2.0 million Biden
2019 - 2.0 million Trump
2025 - 0.6 million Trump (revisions to come)



The raw numbers likely don't really tell the whole story.

From Econofact:

"The American job market took a large hit due to the COVID-19 pandemic: there were 150.9 million jobs at the beginning of March 2020 ***. In June 2024, 158.6 million jobs were recorded by the Bureau of Labor Statistics."

According to a 2023 House committee (partisan) @75% of Biden's job numbers were lost COVID jobs. According to other sources, nearly 25% of Biden jobs created from late 2022 through the end of his term were government jobs. So that is a net gain of between 4-8m jobs, of which 1-2 were government sector.

3-6 million jobs is still better than Trump's job numbers, which are bad. But note that unemployment under Trump only increase .4% in 2025. Do we not consider it weird that essentially no new hiring and no new unemployment (figuratively, not literally) is simultaneously happening? That is a clue that something bigger as at play.

We know we are somewhere on the bell curve of an AI revolution where automation is replacing humans. We are also experiencing mass deportation of illegals. And we know the Trump admin intentionally reduced net government jobs by about 10% in 2025. It seems highly probable there is something more sophisticated going on with the Trump job numbers related to a transformation of the workforce/workplace.
the WSJ article points to a number of concomitant factors including tarrif uncertainty, reduced quit rate, immigration and AI. Immigration was a mixed bag impacting both supply and demand for labor. I'm not seeing a "grand plan".
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sycasey
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Anarchistbear said:

The economy is good for capital and better.

Companies are seeing their stock prices helped by all the layoffs.
movielover
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"Economists believe the economy needs to create about 50,000 jobs per month or even less to keep up with growth in the working-age population. About 387,000 people entered the labor force last month. They were more than absorbed by a 528,000 jump in household employment, pushing the jobless rate down."

https://www.reuters.com/business/us-job-growth-accelerates-january-unemployment-rate-falls-43-2026-02-11/
DiabloWags
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Meanwhile, December Retail Sales were surprisingly FLAT.
This report followed a 0.6% increase in November.

It's interesting that Trump "cheerleaders" failed to post anything about this yesterday when the report came out.



Disappointing holiday season: December retail sales were flat, falling well short of estimate
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
DiabloWags
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Only 181,000 jobs were added in all of 2025.

From Movielover's same Reuters link:




US job growth surges in January, but labor market far from turning around | Reuters

U.S. gained 130,000 jobs last month, but labor market growth stalled in 2025
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
tequila4kapp
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The Nov > Dec trend is meaningful.
I am interested in accounting for demographics with these numbers.
DiabloWags
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tequila4kapp said:

The Nov > Dec trend is meaningful.
I am interested in accounting for demographics with these numbers.


There were unfavorable seasonal adjustments that impacted the December report, for sure.
But the pullback in spending was widespread. Sales declined in 8 of the 13 retail categories that the Census Bureau tracks.

Sounds like the tariffs are finally having a negative impact.
Cars and Furniture.



December retail sales fell short. Worries about the economy curbed holiday spending.
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
dajo9
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Revised

Job growth by year since Obama's 2nd term recovery from the Great Recession. The worst 3 years are the last 3 years Trump has been President.

2021 - 7.2 million Biden
2022 - 4.6 million Biden
2014 - 3.0 million Obama
2015 - 2.7 million Obama
2023 - 2.6 million Biden
2016 - 2.3 million Obama
2018 - 2.3 million Trump
2013 - 2.1 million Obama
2017 - 2.1 million Trump
2024 - 2.0 million Biden
2019 - 2.0 million Trump
2025 - 0.2 million Trump
2020 - (9.2) million Trump

If you want to cry about covid (but still blame Biden for covid inflation) I can remove the jobs lost and recovered. It doesn't change the story that Trump is a terrible jobs President.

2014 - 3.0 million Obama
2015 - 2.7 million Obama
2022 - 2.6 million Biden
2023 - 2.6 million Biden
2016 - 2.3 million Obama
2018 - 2.3 million Trump
2013 - 2.1 million Obama
2017 - 2.1 million Trump
2024 - 2.0 million Biden
2019 - 2.0 million Trump
2025 - 0.2 million Trump
movielover
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DiabloWags
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tequila4kapp said:

The Nov > Dec trend is meaningful.
I am interested in accounting for demographics with these numbers.


Here ya go.
Tariffs clearly having an impact.

"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
tequila4kapp
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Great data. Thanks.
PAC-10-BEAR
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dajo9 said:

The economy was good when Biden was President

Except for the "transitory" Bidenfation, small business shutdowns, record credit card debt, etc....?
BearlySane88
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Big C
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I really don't think the number of jobs, taken in isolation, is a reliable metric, though it is one metric.

Except for the "pandemic dip", the US economy has been fairly strong since after the Great Recession... hasn't really mattered who the POTUS is. I am a little worried about the tariffs and, longer term, we are going to need to figure out how society as a whole is going to benefit from the AI boom (not just the oligarchs).

One thing we were reminded of in 2024: When inflation goes up, many folks have the perception that the economy is bad (sometimes true, sometimes not).
tequila4kapp
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Big C said:

I really don't think the number of jobs, taken in isolation, is a reliable metric, though it is one metric.

Except for the "pandemic dip", the US economy has been fairly strong since after the Great Recession... hasn't really mattered who the POTUS is. I am a little worried about the tariffs and, longer term, we are going to need to figure out how society as a whole is going to benefit from the AI boom (not just the oligarchs).

One thing we were reminded of in 2024: When inflation goes up, many folks have the perception that the economy is bad (sometimes true, sometimes not).

from usinflationcalculator.com


*The latest inflation data (12-month based) is always displayed in the chart's final column.
Anarchistbear
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Eastern Oregon Bear
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BearlySane88 said:



The Republican National Committee Research team thinks the jobs report was great? What a shocker.
BearlySane88
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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

BearlySane88 said:



The Republican National Committee Research team thinks the jobs report was great? What a shocker.


No, the economist is quoted as saying that on CNN
Eastern Oregon Bear
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BearlySane88 said:

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

BearlySane88 said:



The Republican National Committee Research team thinks the jobs report was great? What a shocker.


No, the economist is quoted as saying that on CNN

Whoosh!
BearlySane88
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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

BearlySane88 said:

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

BearlySane88 said:



The Republican National Committee Research team thinks the jobs report was great? What a shocker.


No, the economist is quoted as saying that on CNN

Whoosh!


Please explain what you think went over my head because it seems you just want to deny the fact that an economist is praising Trump
DiabloWags
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FORD REVEALS $900 MILLION TARIFF HIT

Trump Administration alerted the company on December 23rd that a tariff relief program would be retroactive going back to November, and not back to May as anticipated.

And a biggest ever quarterly loss of $11.1 Billion
Compared to a $1.8 Billion profit of a year ago in Q4.

THANK YOU PRESIDENT TRUMP!.
MERRY XMAS!

Downshift: Ford's Tariff Bill

https://share.google/Lsa6cHfUGjFtHROMs
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
oski003
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Big C said:

I really don't think the number of jobs, taken in isolation, is a reliable metric, though it is one metric.

Except for the "pandemic dip", the US economy has been fairly strong since after the Great Recession... hasn't really mattered who the POTUS is. I am a little worried about the tariffs and, longer term, we are going to need to figure out how society as a whole is going to benefit from the AI boom (not just the oligarchs).

One thing we were reminded of in 2024: When inflation goes up, many folks have the perception that the economy is bad (sometimes true, sometimes not).


AI is transitioning us into the Eloi and the Morlocks.
oski003
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DiabloWags said:

FORD REVEALS $900 MILLION TARIFF HIT

Trump Administration alerted the company on December 23rd that a tariff relief program would be retroactive going back to November, and not back to May as anticipated.

And a biggest ever quarterly loss of $11.1 Billion
Compared to a $1.8 Billion profit of a year ago in Q4.

THANK YOU PRESIDENT TRUMP!.
MERRY XMAS!

Downshift: Ford's Tariff Bill

https://share.google/Lsa6cHfUGjFtHROMs



Thanks Henry for posting your company's tariff gripes for the 50th time.
DiabloWags
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oski003 said:

DiabloWags said:

FORD REVEALS $900 MILLION TARIFF HIT

Trump Administration alerted the company on December 23rd that a tariff relief program would be retroactive going back to November, and not back to May as anticipated.

And a biggest ever quarterly loss of $11.1 Billion
Compared to a $1.8 Billion profit of a year ago in Q4.

THANK YOU PRESIDENT TRUMP!.
MERRY XMAS!

Downshift: Ford's Tariff Bill

https://share.google/Lsa6cHfUGjFtHROMs



Thanks Henry for posting your company's tariff gripes for the 50th time.


For those that don't follow this very closely, the CEO is Jim Farley. And the CFO is Sherry House.

Announced today.

This is how you MAGA!

Thank You President Trump!

That 50% tariff on aluminum sure is helping the F-150 pick up.

Go Trump Go!

YOU'RE WELCOME!

Ford's 2025 financial losses were Blue Oval's biggest since the Great Recession, due to EV shifts


"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
cal83dls79
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BearlySane88 said:


interesting backstory on this Economist:

Key themes and work by Foroohar include:
Post-Globalization: She argues that the future of the economy lies in regionalization, with closer links between manufacturing and local consumption.
Resiliency vs. Efficiency: She asserts that pandemic-driven disruptions proved that economic resilience is more important than simply finding the lowest-cost producer globally.
Critique of Big Tech and Finance: Author of Makers and Takers (on financialization) and Don't Be Evil (on Big Tech), she critiques how these sectors have impacted the American economy.
"Homecoming" Theory: In her book Homecoming: The Path to Prosperity in a Post-Global World, she explores how place-based economics can create more equitable growth.
Foroohar frequently appears on CNN to discuss these topics, highlighting how localized, "place-based" investments are reshaping the economic landscape.
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BearlySane88
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cal83dls79 said:

BearlySane88 said:


interesting backstory on this Economist:

Key themes and work by Foroohar include:
Post-Globalization: She argues that the future of the economy lies in regionalization, with closer links between manufacturing and local consumption.
Resiliency vs. Efficiency: She asserts that pandemic-driven disruptions proved that economic resilience is more important than simply finding the lowest-cost producer globally.
Critique of Big Tech and Finance: Author of Makers and Takers (on financialization) and Don't Be Evil (on Big Tech), she critiques how these sectors have impacted the American economy.
"Homecoming" Theory: In her book Homecoming: The Path to Prosperity in a Post-Global World, she explores how place-based economics can create more equitable growth.
Foroohar frequently appears on CNN to discuss these topics, highlighting how localized, "place-based" investments are reshaping the economic landscape.

I agree, buy American
BearlySane88
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DiabloWags said:

oski003 said:

DiabloWags said:

FORD REVEALS $900 MILLION TARIFF HIT

Trump Administration alerted the company on December 23rd that a tariff relief program would be retroactive going back to November, and not back to May as anticipated.

And a biggest ever quarterly loss of $11.1 Billion
Compared to a $1.8 Billion profit of a year ago in Q4.

THANK YOU PRESIDENT TRUMP!.
MERRY XMAS!

Downshift: Ford's Tariff Bill

https://share.google/Lsa6cHfUGjFtHROMs



Thanks Henry for posting your company's tariff gripes for the 50th time.


For those that don't follow this very closely, the CEO is Jim Farley. And the CFO is Sherry House.

Announced today.

This is how you MAGA!

Thank You President Trump!

That 50% tariff on aluminum sure is helping the F-150 pick up.

Go Trump Go!

YOU'RE WELCOME!

Ford's 2025 financial losses were Blue Oval's biggest since the Great Recession, due to EV shifts





"All told, 2025 represented Ford's third-worst performance ever, and accounts for a third full-year loss in the last six years."

So who was president for their two worst performances ever? Maybe it's not the president and they are just struggling as a company over the last six years?
Aunburdened
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BearlySane88 said:



She's not an economist
cal83dls79
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Aunburdened said:

BearlySane88 said:



She's not an economist
shes an author selling books and looking thru her own quirky lense that back her theories. Sounds like an economist to me, or what passes for one.
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BearlySane88
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Aunburdened said:

BearlySane88 said:



She's not an economist



Cal88
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Bachelors in English and a Masters in Journalism I would guess. Same background as with most science journos.
DiabloWags
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BearlySane88 said:


"All told, 2025 represented Ford's third-worst performance ever, and accounts for a third full-year loss in the last six years."

So who was president for their two worst performances ever? Maybe it's not the president and they are just struggling as a company over the last six years?


How do you think the best selling pick-up truck in AMERICAN HISTORY (for 47 straight years) is doing after Trump imposed a 50% tariff on aluminum?

Hint: 700 lbs of ALUMINUM goes into making a Ford F-150.

Are you claiming that Trump's tariffs haven't hurt Ford?

"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
 
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