philly1121 said:

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HateRed said:

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Students who go to CAL and UCLA know the difference. I heard it all the time when I was teaching AP classes. Not many outside of UCLA believe that UCLA is better than CAL.

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HateRed, what are you on about? No one cares about where we think we rank academically against UCLA. That talk is reserved for one of three things - a joint alumni bbq where two drunks are arguing over who is better, or two librarians having a convo by the fire with a bourbon., or AP teachers trying to flex where they went to school. Really?

Its this very type of talk that shows that we are small time. And we are.

Colorado leaving also shows the complete ineptitude of George K. Can it now be said that for the past year he has shown us nothing but smoke and mirrors? He has NOTHING in his hands. There is no deal and whatever deal that may be thrown to him is below par.

However, nothing really has changed now, has it? Pac10 is looking for a media deal. Now Colorado is out of the mix. So we lose Deion. Does this now diminish value further?

If it wants to survive, and if we want to be part of it, P10 should invite, SDSU, UNLV and two texas schools and see if that staves off extinction. That is, even if those 4 want to join us.

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I don't agree with all of your points but I do agree that we need to resist retreating to our academic prowess safe space when the real issue is solid leadership to lead us thru this gauntlet. GK inherited a five alarm fire but didn't do himself any favors by allowing the Big 12 to swoop in and get the TV deal and not negotiating a deal to keep SC in the fold when everybody knew they wanted a better deal. As Cuba Gooding, Jr said in Jerry Maguire, it's time for GK to show us the money. I'm also hoping Apple or whoever our partners are realize that if the Pac folds, they lose a great opportunity so they also need to come up with the Quan.

LOL at this from Dodd's story. Kliavkoff is a mess.

"There continue to be rumors the P12 asked for as much $500 million annually at one point. That's $50 million per team per year, which would have put the Pac-12 in the same orbit as the Big Ten"

— John Kurtz (@jlkurtz) July 28, 2023

colorado just bolted for $31m... so looks like $50m is a bit above current market rates

The following schools have filed the paperwork asking to join the @pac12 @ColoradoStateU @GoAztecs @SMU @UNLVathletics @GreenWaveFB @USFFootball @TigersAthletics @BroncoSportsFB @FresnoStateFB @TulsaFootball @RiceFootball there are more but I think you get the idea- Note to San…

— Jim Williams (@JWMediaDC) July 28, 2023

bunch of winners here!

nikeykid said:

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The following schools have filed the paperwork asking to join the @pac12 @ColoradoStateU @GoAztecs @SMU @UNLVathletics @GreenWaveFB @USFFootball @TigersAthletics @BroncoSportsFB @FresnoStateFB @TulsaFootball @RiceFootball there are more but I think you get the idea- Note to San…

— Jim Williams (@JWMediaDC) July 28, 2023

bunch of winners here!

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So we can say that SDSU sliding into the Colorado spot isn't much (if any) of a true downgrade, particularly on a media deal side given the market, recruiting presence, and trajectory. But what is a downgrade is in any expansion scenario to 12 or more teams, you are essentially trading Colorado for Tulane, UNLV, Colorado State etc for that 12th spot (assuming SMU in the 11th spot) and that is a clear negative trade.

What's the alternative sosheezy? Play with 9 after 2024? UO, UW, and Utah would be long gone by then.

We think these teams are a downgrade and perhaps they are compared to UCLA and especially USC. But we're at the edge of the cliff looking down. Either a Hail Mary pass is thrown (entry into the B1G), or we have to acknowledge where we and other members of the P12 are at and invite 3-4 teams in. SDSU, UNLV and maybe 1-2 from Texas.

After that we look to partnerships with the ACC.

philly1121 said:

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What's the alternative sosheezy? Play with 9 after 2024? UO, UW, and Utah would be long gone by then.

We think these teams are a downgrade and perhaps they are compared to UCLA and especially USC. But we're at the edge of the cliff looking down. Either a Hail Mary pass is thrown (entry into the B1G), or we have to acknowledge where we and other members of the P12 are at and invite 3-4 teams in. SDSU, UNLV and maybe 1-2 from Texas.

After that we look to partnerships with the ACC.

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I agree, we have to pivot and add teams, I'm just commenting on some of the pooh-poohing out there about Colorado leaving, that we could even 'upgrade' to use a term Canzano floated by just subbing in SDSU.

I'd add SDSU, SMU and Tulane. The last one is hard (Rice, Tulane, UNLV, Colorado St.) none are slam dunk fits. I think Tulane gets you in the south for recruiting, is a not terrible pair for SMU geography wise, and second team in the central time zone. Also selfishly would be an awesome roadie. Footballwise, they're pretty bad. But honestly so are the other schools up for consideration.

sosheezy said:

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philly1121 said:

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What's the alternative sosheezy? Play with 9 after 2024? UO, UW, and Utah would be long gone by then.

We think these teams are a downgrade and perhaps they are compared to UCLA and especially USC. But we're at the edge of the cliff looking down. Either a Hail Mary pass is thrown (entry into the B1G), or we have to acknowledge where we and other members of the P12 are at and invite 3-4 teams in. SDSU, UNLV and maybe 1-2 from Texas.

After that we look to partnerships with the ACC.

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I agree, we have to pivot and add teams, I'm just commenting on some of the pooh-poohing out there about Colorado leaving, that we could even 'upgrade' to use a term Canzano floated by just subbing in SDSU.

I'd add SDSU, SMU and Tulane. The last one is hard (Rice, Tulane, UNLV, Colorado St.) none are slam dunk fits. I think Tulane gets you in the south for recruiting, is a not terrible pair for SMU geography wise, and second team in the central time zone. Also selfishly would be an awesome roadie. Footballwise, they're pretty bad. But honestly so are the other schools up for consideration.

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It will be something close to that, *if* the conference survives.

Realistically:
(1) The Big Ten isn't coming to anyone's rescue at the present time.
(2) The ACC might talk, but won't add anyone in the west. Even if they seriously considered it, the schools the ACC would most want don't want to be tied to the ACC's long GOR. And there is NFW the ACC would allow new members to not be bound by the ACC GOR.
(3) Arizona will join the Big 12.
(4) Many of the remaining "Pac-8" will want 4 new members instead of 2, as insurance against further departures.
(5) Taking more than 2 schools out of the MWC would be really dicey for them, and the Pac won't do that. So the Pac would add SDSU and only one other from the MWC, likely CSU.
(6) Assuming that (4) and (5) are correct, the 11th and 12th members would be SMU and either Rice or Tulane.

I might argue that re: Colorado, most of the schools listed might not necessarily represent a "negative add". Both Rice and Tulane are [significant] academic upgrades. SDSU and SMU are likely Athletic Department (FB & BB) upgrades, academically equal (at least, based on admission rates), and major upgrades in recruiting footprints and media value (SD/Southern California & Dallas/FW metropolitan area). And many of the others are better (or equal) in FB & BB, and arguably 'not worse' academically.

Pittstop said:

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I might argue that re: Colorado, most of the schools listed might not necessarily represent a "negative add". Both Rice and Tulane are [significant] academic upgrades. SDSU and SMU are likely Athletic Department (FB & BB) upgrades, academically equal (at least, based on admission rates), and major upgrades in recruiting footprints and media value (SD/Southern California & Dallas/FW metropolitan area). And many of the others are better (or equal) in FB & BB, and arguably 'not worse' academically.

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Admission rates are easily gamed. (For years, Tulane offered a free app to boost interest.)

To the extent the Presidents still care about academics, Colorado is R1, Very High Research Uni, and a member of the AAU, the 60+ prestigious Unis. Rice and Tulane are R1 and also members of teh AAU.

SD and SMU are neither.

True, but Colorado's 78+% admissions rate, compared to like 14.4% for Cal, puts Colorado on the less-than-elite end of the "exclusive academic institutions" spectrum, as AAU/Research Institutions go.

Big issue tonight, and has been for months, Pac-12 membership is not aligned. League members are squabbling, with at least four schools pushing back against expansion as recently as yesterday even in the wake of Colorado's departure to the Big XII.

Kliavkoff came very close to a vote of "No Confidence". He made big promises on the media deal, and right now is looking at under well under $25m per school. Now Colorado is gone and Arizona might be gone in the next week.

Pittstop said:

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True, but Colorado's 78+% admissions rate, compared to like 14.4% for Cal, puts Colorado on the less-than-elite end of the "exclusive academic institutions" spectrum, as AAU/Research Institutions go.

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Hey, that's 9 percentage points above UC Riverside (69%) and 11 percentage points above UC Merced (89%). But I'll bet in 20 years, CU will still be at 78% and UC Merced will be close to UCR.

BigDaddy said:

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Big issue tonight, and has been for months, Pac-12 membership is not aligned. League members are squabbling, with at least four schools pushing back against expansion as recently as yesterday even in the wake of Colorado's departure to the Big XII.

Kliavkoff came very close to a vote of "No Confidence". He made big promises on the media deal, and right now is looking at under well under $25m per school. Now Colorado is gone and Arizona might be gone in the next week.

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Source?

89Bear said:

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BigDaddy said:

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Big issue tonight, and has been for months, Pac-12 membership is not aligned. League members are squabbling, with at least four schools pushing back against expansion as recently as yesterday even in the wake of Colorado's departure to the Big XII.

Kliavkoff came very close to a vote of "No Confidence". He made big promises on the media deal, and right now is looking at under well under $25m per school. Now Colorado is gone and Arizona might be gone in the next week.

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Source?

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If this is the case, then they should go to Apple and tell them that if they can't match the Big 12 money, there won't be a Pac to broadcast. They'll waste money I. Broadcasting the MWC or another group of 5 conference.

Something is not adding up. Why the complete silence from George, Cal, and almost all other schools? George has to either have a super innovative and and above expectations deal that he's ironing out or he is complicit in trying to bring down the conference? I mean, why all this secrecy if you're just going to them come out and say - "we did it guys - a deal similar to the B12." If that is the case he should have been tempering expectations all along.

But if he did have something up his sleeve, he would have been able to convince Colorado to stay. Now Arizona is wavering - I presume because there is no proof what he is going to bring in. If rumors are now that it is only 25 mil, well they are gone and I would expect UW and UO to bolt as well.

So what is going on?!?!

89Bear said:

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BigDaddy said:

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Big issue tonight, and has been for months, Pac-12 membership is not aligned. League members are squabbling, with at least four schools pushing back against expansion as recently as yesterday even in the wake of Colorado's departure to the Big XII.

Kliavkoff came very close to a vote of "No Confidence". He made big promises on the media deal, and right now is looking at under well under $25m per school. Now Colorado is gone and Arizona might be gone in the next week.

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Source?

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I'm assuming this is from the West Virginia guys Twitter.

sosheezy said:

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89Bear said:

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BigDaddy said:

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Big issue tonight, and has been for months, Pac-12 membership is not aligned. League members are squabbling, with at least four schools pushing back against expansion as recently as yesterday even in the wake of Colorado's departure to the Big XII.

Kliavkoff came very close to a vote of "No Confidence". He made big promises on the media deal, and right now is looking at under well under $25m per school. Now Colorado is gone and Arizona might be gone in the next week.

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Source?

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I'm assuming this is from the West Virginia guys Twitter.

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As sad as this whole scenario is for me, I am going to get a chuckle after Arizona leaves and we get another statement from the pac-8 that they are all committed to each other ... Its a self-aware countdown.

Econ141 said:

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sosheezy said:

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89Bear said:

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BigDaddy said:

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Big issue tonight, and has been for months, Pac-12 membership is not aligned. League members are squabbling, with at least four schools pushing back against expansion as recently as yesterday even in the wake of Colorado's departure to the Big XII.

Kliavkoff came very close to a vote of "No Confidence". He made big promises on the media deal, and right now is looking at under well under $25m per school. Now Colorado is gone and Arizona might be gone in the next week.

---

Source?

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I'm assuming this is from the West Virginia guys Twitter.

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As sad as this whole scenario is for me, I am going to get a chuckle after Arizona leaves and we get another statement from the pac-8 that they are all committed to each other ... Its a self-aware countdown.

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Except for Cal

calumnus said:

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Econ141 said:

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sosheezy said:

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89Bear said:

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BigDaddy said:

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Big issue tonight, and has been for months, Pac-12 membership is not aligned. League members are squabbling, with at least four schools pushing back against expansion as recently as yesterday even in the wake of Colorado's departure to the Big XII.

Kliavkoff came very close to a vote of "No Confidence". He made big promises on the media deal, and right now is looking at under well under $25m per school. Now Colorado is gone and Arizona might be gone in the next week.

---

Source?

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I'm assuming this is from the West Virginia guys Twitter.

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As sad as this whole scenario is for me, I am going to get a chuckle after Arizona leaves and we get another statement from the pac-8 that they are all committed to each other ... Its a self-aware countdown.

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Except for Cal

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I think it's us OSU, and WSU that are the really committed ones. If B12 was really willing to accept OSU, I am at a loss why they didn't jump ship.

Oh yeah-and today ESPN pulled the offer they had floated for one game a week so they are now completely off the table.

— MHver3 (@MHver3) July 29, 2023

this guy has been credible on the Colorado move as well as the USC/UCLA ones as well. just dropping bombs right now. only deal on the table is apple for essentially $20m per school. ESPN just pulled their soft offer.

Econ141 said:

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calumnus said:

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Econ141 said:

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sosheezy said:

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89Bear said:

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BigDaddy said:

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Big issue tonight, and has been for months, Pac-12 membership is not aligned. League members are squabbling, with at least four schools pushing back against expansion as recently as yesterday even in the wake of Colorado's departure to the Big XII.

Kliavkoff came very close to a vote of "No Confidence". He made big promises on the media deal, and right now is looking at under well under $25m per school. Now Colorado is gone and Arizona might be gone in the next week.

---

Source?

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I'm assuming this is from the West Virginia guys Twitter.

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As sad as this whole scenario is for me, I am going to get a chuckle after Arizona leaves and we get another statement from the pac-8 that they are all committed to each other ... Its a self-aware countdown.

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Except for Cal

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I think it's us OSU, and WSU that are the really committed ones. If B12 was really willing to accept OSU, I am at a loss why they didn't jump ship.

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You think Stanford will screw us?

Damn, I really wish it was not Christ and Knowlton leading us now and the last 5 years.

nikeykid said:

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Oh yeah-and today ESPN pulled the offer they had floated for one game a week so they are now completely off the table.

— MHver3 (@MHver3) July 29, 2023

this guy has been credible on the Colorado move as well as the USC/UCLA ones as well. just dropping bombs right now. only deal on the table is apple for essentially $20m per school. ESPN just pulled their soft offer.

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The only reason Oregon and UW stay is that they then have a 50% chance of raking in the cfp money.

We are toast if this true and while I believed George for some time, I am now coming to the realization that he has no idea what he's doing and this was another bad hire. I am miffed that our admin is blindly committed to this pathetic, but once proud, conference.

Econ141 said:

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nikeykid said:

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Oh yeah-and today ESPN pulled the offer they had floated for one game a week so they are now completely off the table.

— MHver3 (@MHver3) July 29, 2023

this guy has been credible on the Colorado move as well as the USC/UCLA ones as well. just dropping bombs right now. only deal on the table is apple for essentially $20m per school. ESPN just pulled their soft offer.

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The only reason Oregon and UW stay is that they then have a 50% chance of raking in the cfp money.

We are toast if this true and while I believed George for some time, I am now coming to the realization that he has no idea what he's doing and this was another bad hire. I am miffed that our admin is blindly committed to this pathetic, but once proud, conference.

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Bill Walton for Pac-12 Chairman

calumnus said:

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Econ141 said:

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I think it's us OSU, and WSU that are the really committed ones. If B12 was really willing to accept OSU, I am at a loss why they didn't jump ship.

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You think Stanford will screw us?

Damn, I really wish it was not Christ and Knowlton leading us now and the last 5 years.

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Stanford has more options, because of their relationship with Notre Dame. A year ago, when USC and UCLA announced for the B1G, Stanford was talking with ND about moving to the B1G together... at that point, the Irish had an invite and needed a partner. Their plan if they accepted the invite was to go with Stanford.

Certainly Stanford would be happy to enter the B1G with Cal, but if it came down to a choice between going to the B!G with Notre Dame or not getting into that league so they could show loyalty to their rival?

They're leaving without Cal. And Cal would do the same thing.

BIG expansion info from a poster on the PSU 247 board who seems to be connected and is well-respected by their board:
Quote

I want to share a few things regarding expansion.
1. Neither the Presidents or AD's are looking for any more expansion for the next few years. Folks should expect 4-6 years of the new scheduling format before any changes are made. The new Commish is really focused on this and fully integrating USC/UCLA into the conference.
2. My expectation is the next wave of expansion will likely hit around 2029/2030. I don't expect any more west coast expansion from the Big Ten. Warren could not find any media partners willing to pay enough to make it work and nobody thinks that changes any time soon. USC/UCLA does not want any more PAC teams. Travelling to Oregon and Washington is pretty much the same for them as travelling to Mid-west so the theory that they want more Pacific Coast programs to lower travel cost is bunk. The next round of expansion will focus on ND and ACC teams down the Atlantic Coast.
3. My info comes from PSU so it may be skewed toward their preferences but everything I hear suggests UVA and UNC would be the first targets. Younger, growing metro areas down the I-95 corridor with lots of B1G alumn transplants living and moving in that direction. FSU is another strong possibility. In the past, I was told that the B1G was not at all interested in Miami but very recently was told that their admission to the AAU is a game changer. I was told that VA Tech and GA Tech were long-shot possibilities to round out expansion. From what I understand, Clemson is not on the radar unless a media partner really, really pushes it. My prediction would be that as we get closer to 2030 the next round of expansion will be UVA, UNC, FSU & Miami + Notre Dame.
4. That gets us back to Notre Dame. The expectation of AD's and Presidents is that ND will finalize a deal wiht NBC that takes them out to roughly the same time as the B1G media deal. At that point, if they are not willing to jump into conference completely, the thought is that B1G will move forward with poaching the ACC and that ND at that point will set up a scheduling agreement with Big Ten. The example of what that would look like was given to me was: 8 games, 4 home, 4 away and would be against big brands that the networks want. Something like PSU, OSU, UM, MSU, Wiscy, NW, Neb, USC. Apparently one of the big snags with NBC negotiations has been ND's terrible schedule when it comes to ratings. NBC wants more games against Big Ten teams which would be much better for ratings than just a bunch of scrub ACC teams and the service academies. (GO NAVY!)
5. Bonus PSU content: this is not completely about expansion but relevant to the topic: PSU folks have been very pleasantly surprised by how enthusiastic NBC (also CBS to a lesser extent) is about Penn State and even the new Commish has taken notice as he has been smoothing over the TV schedule stuff. NBC wants as many PSU games as possible and their execs have told the Commish that they feel Penn State is the key to big ratings in the large metro areas of the East Coast. The reason I bring it up in this thread is that it has been suggested to me that the next round of expansion will be focused on finding good pairings with PSU down the I-95 corridor. Essentially the status quo is now becoming USC, OSU, UM and PSU as the 4 major national brands with USC anchoring the west coast, OSU and UM the midwest and PSU anchoring the East Coast, with those 4 schools kind of elevating the TV ratings when they match up with the "lesser" programs in their regions. That dynamic will probably shape the next round of expansion quite a bit.

MTbear22 said:

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BIG expansion info from a poster on the PSU 247 board who seems to be connected and is well-respected by their board:
Quote

I want to share a few things regarding expansion.
1. Neither the Presidents or AD's are looking for any more expansion for the next few years. Folks should expect 4-6 years of the new scheduling format before any changes are made. The new Commish is really focused on this and fully integrating USC/UCLA into the conference.
2. My expectation is the next wave of expansion will likely hit around 2029/2030. I don't expect any more west coast expansion from the Big Ten. Warren could not find any media partners willing to pay enough to make it work and nobody thinks that changes any time soon. USC/UCLA does not want any more PAC teams. Travelling to Oregon and Washington is pretty much the same for them as travelling to Mid-west so the theory that they want more Pacific Coast programs to lower travel cost is bunk. The next round of expansion will focus on ND and ACC teams down the Atlantic Coast.
3. My info comes from PSU so it may be skewed toward their preferences but everything I hear suggests UVA and UNC would be the first targets. Younger, growing metro areas down the I-95 corridor with lots of B1G alumn transplants living and moving in that direction. FSU is another strong possibility. In the past, I was told that the B1G was not at all interested in Miami but very recently was told that their admission to the AAU is a game changer. I was told that VA Tech and GA Tech were long-shot possibilities to round out expansion. From what I understand, Clemson is not on the radar unless a media partner really, really pushes it. My prediction would be that as we get closer to 2030 the next round of expansion will be UVA, UNC, FSU & Miami + Notre Dame.
4. That gets us back to Notre Dame. The expectation of AD's and Presidents is that ND will finalize a deal wiht NBC that takes them out to roughly the same time as the B1G media deal. At that point, if they are not willing to jump into conference completely, the thought is that B1G will move forward with poaching the ACC and that ND at that point will set up a scheduling agreement with Big Ten. The example of what that would look like was given to me was: 8 games, 4 home, 4 away and would be against big brands that the networks want. Something like PSU, OSU, UM, MSU, Wiscy, NW, Neb, USC. Apparently one of the big snags with NBC negotiations has been ND's terrible schedule when it comes to ratings. NBC wants more games against Big Ten teams which would be much better for ratings than just a bunch of scrub ACC teams and the service academies. (GO NAVY!)
5. Bonus PSU content: this is not completely about expansion but relevant to the topic: PSU folks have been very pleasantly surprised by how enthusiastic NBC (also CBS to a lesser extent) is about Penn State and even the new Commish has taken notice as he has been smoothing over the TV schedule stuff. NBC wants as many PSU games as possible and their execs have told the Commish that they feel Penn State is the key to big ratings in the large metro areas of the East Coast. The reason I bring it up in this thread is that it has been suggested to me that the next round of expansion will be focused on finding good pairings with PSU down the I-95 corridor. Essentially the status quo is now becoming USC, OSU, UM and PSU as the 4 major national brands with USC anchoring the west coast, OSU and UM the midwest and PSU anchoring the East Coast, with those 4 schools kind of elevating the TV ratings when they match up with the "lesser" programs in their regions. That dynamic will probably shape the next round of expansion quite a bit.

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I'm sorry, and I recognize he didnt explicitly state this as he referenced the NW schools, but anybody suggesting that the travel impact regarding time, costs, and student impact in traveling from LA to SF is comparable to the travel impact of traveling from LA to state college or Iowa City is wrong.

Even LA to Seattle is a much shorter trip than LA to Chicago or Midwest airport and then drive to college town. PSU gotta PSU.

calumnus said:

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Econ141 said:

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calumnus said:

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Econ141 said:

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sosheezy said:

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89Bear said:

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BigDaddy said:

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Big issue tonight, and has been for months, Pac-12 membership is not aligned. League members are squabbling, with at least four schools pushing back against expansion as recently as yesterday even in the wake of Colorado's departure to the Big XII.

Kliavkoff came very close to a vote of "No Confidence". He made big promises on the media deal, and right now is looking at under well under $25m per school. Now Colorado is gone and Arizona might be gone in the next week.

---

Source?

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I'm assuming this is from the West Virginia guys Twitter.

---

As sad as this whole scenario is for me, I am going to get a chuckle after Arizona leaves and we get another statement from the pac-8 that they are all committed to each other ... Its a self-aware countdown.

---

Except for Cal

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I think it's us OSU, and WSU that are the really committed ones. If B12 was really willing to accept OSU, I am at a loss why they didn't jump ship.

---

You think Stanford will screw us?

Damn, I really wish it was not Christ and Knowlton leading us now and the last 5 years.

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They don't have a president right now and have other internal affairs going on, so that may slow them down for a moment.

MTbear22 said:

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Man that is one wordy ass advertisement

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Dude probably has more info than 99% of the people around here...

oski003 said:

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Even LA to Seattle is a much shorter trip than LA to Chicago or Midwest airport and then drive to college town. PSU gotta PSU.

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Not to mention Piscataway or College Park.

But no one cares if the football team has to travel once every other week as they go charter. The issue is gonna be the baseball/softball and other non-rev teams having to play mid-week games in the Eastern time zone. Of course, PSU may not care about the student-athlete experience, but the UC Regents certainly do.