Hawaii Haas said:

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I don't think it's a stretch to think SDSU is a package deal with the Arizona schools. I know SDSU is just giddy with a potential move up in conferences, but ask any AZ person where they go to go to the beach and it is SD.

I don't have the stats, but I'm going to bet ASU pulls a lot of Californians and largely from SoCal, and I bet SD.

What I'm saying is 4 Corners might eventually be "5 Corners" as a bloc.


Crow is ASU's President:

"Crow, 66, a San Diego native, said his California dream isn't driven by a need for more revenue, or lagging enrollment numbers in Arizona. Rather, he said, he views Arizona and California as key partners in a regional Southwest economy that his national research university should serve without regard to state boundaries. And those who want higher education should have it whatever it takes."

SDSU may provide stability in the short term.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-04-06/uc-csu-college-admission-arizona-state L

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San Diego State moves into the Pac-12 and their men's basketball program settles in right behind Arizona as best program in the league.

The new math:

"Those rights numbers mean that the rest of the PAC 12 is worth about 300 million. That seems right to me - about 30 million each. Early days, the Fox guy who was quoted by Wilner and Canzano said that the rights for Oregon and UW were about 30 million each, and Cal and Furd were about 45 million each (for a total of 15 million of the 300 million) and the other 6 were about 25 million each.

tequila4kapp said:

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6956bear said:

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tequila4kapp said:

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Big Dog said:

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tequila4kapp said:

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BigDaddy said:

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Pac-12 commish George Kliavkoff visiting SMU Wednesday, sources told @ActionNetworkHQ. San Diego State & SMU are top Pac-12 expansion candidates. Pac-12 needs more members & more inventory for new media rights deal, which is expected to rely heavily on digital streaming services

— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) February 8, 2023

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6 weeks ago. That's when GK was reported to be involved with SMU. This process has taken forever.

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Dunno why this is so surprising.

The only reason to consider SMU is TV/cable money. OTOH, the academic Uni Presidents (particularly at Cal and Stanford) are still concerned about prestige (AAU) and about the same reason that the UC Regents pushed back on UCLA leaving, i.e., significantly increased travel.

GK can lay out the numbers, but unless those numbers are really compelling, i.e., multiple millions more per school, SMU don't get that Presidents' invite.

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I wasn't commenting on SMU as much as I was commenting on the glacial pace. Consider:

July 2021 - Kliavkoff starts as new P12 commissioner
July 2021 - TX / OU announce departure for SEC
June 2022 - B12 reaches agreement for Cinci, Houston, UCF to join
June 2022 - Yormack new B12 commissioner
October 2022 - B12 new TV deal announced
February 2023 - Early departure agreement with TX / OU announced
February 2023 - P12 Presidents approve "next steps" with SMU / SDSU expansion process

Notice, the 1st and last entries are P12. All the other stuff is stuff the B12 got done in between.

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Kliavkoff understimated significantly the P12 value for media rights. He has a tough job knowing that the B1G is potentially looking at adding schools and could add them as soon as 2024. Even with a reduced share that is a big enough number to get teams to move. So he needs a number that keeps everybody. That number is different depending on the school.

UO and UW may need around $40M per to stay and sign a GOR. Given the market that likely means unequal revenues in the P12. The payout could increase with SMU and SDSU but they likely need to agree to a lesser share to start. Maybe much less. Could the P12 presidents squeeze OSU and WSU and force lesser shares since on paper they have no options. What about Cal.

How long does the 4 corner schools wait on a deal? Does UW and UO have "handshake" deals with the B1G? Does Stanford or Cal? How much streaming is acceptable? Lots of questions. I do not like SDSU and SMU as considerations. I get why they are in play though.

The P12 presidents and chancelors are supposedly meeting today. This week for sure. A deadline of sorts has been rumored. That day is April 15. A significant date moving forward is April 17. That marks the first day of the new B1G commisioner. Although reports suggest that hire will not complete til perhaps May. This game of chicken continues.

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There was a point in time when neither conference had a next tv deal and both conferences had members on their way out. Remember when each was talking about poaching from the other? The B12 acted quickly to add members and get their tv deal done. The 4 corner schools are now an instability to the P12 precisely because it has moved slowly. The B12 does not have the same instabilities because they moved quickly to shore things up.

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The Big XII voted to invite BYU, Cincy, Houston, and UCF on Sept 10, 2021. That June 10, 2022 date is when it was announced that Cincy, Houston, and UCF would join for the 2023 season instead of 2024. The agreement to join was in 2021.

USC and UCLA announced their departure for the B1G on June 30, 2022.

There was never a point in time in which the Pac-12 had teams on their way out and the Big XII had no one on the way in.

That said ....

The day Texas and Oklahoma announced their departure to the SEC, I messaged a friend to say that Cal was soon going to be a mid-major because USC and others would bolt for the Big Ten. Many on this message board posted the same USC+X would bolt for the B1G thought. So how did USC's and UCLA's departure catch everyone so off-guard when it was so obvious to all of us "proclaiming things we have no actual knowledge of" types?

Californians make up something like 10%-12% of ASU's entering 2022 class. Even 20-30 years ago, a lot of those kids would have gone to a CSU, but the "big college experience" has a lot of appeal for kids today. If UofA and ASU went to the Big 12, would the schools be less appealing to prospective students from California? I would think so:

• Austin is the only appealing place to travel for an away game.
• ASU and UofA would lose the academic halo effect of being associated with the more prestigious schools in the Pac12.
• The Big12 schools are culturally different, essentially Bible-Belt. Would this be a turn-off for Californians?

I wonder if ASU and UofA presidents believe a Big12 connection would have any impact to Californian enrollment.

HearstMining said:

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Californians make up something like 10%-12% of ASU's entering 2022 class.

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It's similar for Colorado and Utah.

Californians are 9.8% of enrollment at CU-Boulder, and that's total enrollment including graduate students. The percentage of undergrads who are from California is prbbably higher.

Californians make up 9.8% of the undergraduate enrollment at UU.

BearSD said:

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HearstMining said:

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Californians make up something like 10%-12% of ASU's entering 2022 class.

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It's similar for Colorado and Utah.

Californians are 9.8% of enrollment at CU-Boulder, and that's total enrollment including graduate students. The percentage of undergrads who are from California is prbbably higher.

Californians make up 9.8% of the undergraduate enrollment at UU.

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and ~10% of Oregon's students hail from CA.

if the 4-Corners schools are accretive, teh B12 can easily change the % share. Contracts are designed to be amended. If the B12 wants Coach Prime bad enough.....

Well...I know that Cal would bend over.

Big Dog said:

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if the 4-Corners schools are accretive, teh B12 can easily change the % share. Contracts are designed to be amended. If the B12 wants Coach Prime bad enough.....

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Sure, but if those 4 schools are additive to a 31.6M average deal then there's no reasonable way to believe the P12 can't beat that number.

tequila4kapp said:

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The B12 reportedly has the contractual term that limits new additions to 60-something % of their tv revenue.

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That's false. Their contract has pro-rata increase from ESPN and then it would be up to Fox as to whether and how much they agree to amend their portion of the contracts.

CaliforniaEternal said:

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Without the LA schools there's a lot less reason for the Arizonas to stay. It seems like half of their schools are populated by SoCal kids that just want a party school experience. There will be less prestige for them to not be affiliated with SC and LA. They might decide the prospects are better to turn toward Texas, because their population is growing while California's is declining.

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The U of A prez said Texas is their next California in terms of out of state enrollment. Texas has a similar issue to UC but is more dire because UT Austin and tAm are the only two high quality public unis in the state. Unlike UC which spreads the wealth, the UT system is all about Austin and the A&M system is all about College Station. The other campuses fight over the scraps. Also, the Zona schools draw huge from Chicagoland area, and Michigan has a much higher out of state enrollment. As an out of state Cal student, I think having people from outside Cali is good for the overall experience.

Interesting move by Apple to reign in free MLB...

https://techcrunch.com/2023/03/22/apple-tv-friday-night-baseball-2023/

I'm not sure I get it. Apple TV+ is already a subscription service (I'm a subscriber). Does this mean an "additional subscription" on top of that for MLB?

Pittstop said:

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I'm not sure I get it. Apple TV+ is already a subscription service (I'm a subscriber). Does this mean an "additional subscription" on top of that for MLB?

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It was free and now requires an apple tv + subscription.

Another thing to watch with apple tv is their sales numbers for the MLS Pass - a separate $99 for the season and the only way to watch MLS. Seems like they would want to p12 in a similar way with a season long fee and not as a part of the basic Apple TV+ package.

Currently Amazon has a deal with DirecTV to deliver NFL Thursday Night Football to sports bars, and it appears that apple/mls is doing the same. So there is an established non-streaming system for bar exposure with both Amazon and Apple of the p12 partners with either.

Nothing is in place yet for commercial distribution of the NFL, but DTV also seems likely according to this:

https://frontofficesports.com/directv-sunday-ticket-commercial-nfl-google-youtube-tv-football-sports-restaurants/

Interestingly the YouTube deal totals $2 billion per year, but the article mentions the commercial part only being targeted for $200 million.

#Pac12 board met this morning. I'm told presidents received a "positive update" and the process will continue. Next board meeting is second week of April.

— Jon Wilner (@wilnerhotline) March 22, 2023

Key point: The situation could be resolved prior to that point, or after. Scheduled meetings are not the only avenue for voting/approvals.

— Jon Wilner (@wilnerhotline) March 22, 2023

The only thing I know for certain - and have been told by multiple sources for weeks - is the negotiations w Apple & Amazon take *much longer* than with ESPN bc they don't have contractual templates for CFB deals. So every step goes back to the lawyers for review.

— Jon Wilner (@wilnerhotline) March 22, 2023

ColoradoBear said:

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Pittstop said:

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I'm not sure I get it. Apple TV+ is already a subscription service (I'm a subscriber). Does this mean an "additional subscription" on top of that for MLB?

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It was free and now requires an apple tv + subscription.

Another thing to watch with apple tv is their sales numbers for the MLS Pass - a separate $99 for the season and the only way to watch MLS. Seems like they would want to p12 in a similar way with a season long fee and not as a part of the basic Apple TV+ package.

Currently Amazon has a deal with DirecTV to deliver NFL Thursday Night Football to sports bars, and it appears that apple/mls is doing the same. So there is an established non-streaming system for bar exposure with both Amazon and Apple of the p12 partners with either.

Nothing is in place yet for commercial distribution of the NFL, but DTV also seems likely according to this:

https://frontofficesports.com/directv-sunday-ticket-commercial-nfl-google-youtube-tv-football-sports-restaurants/

Interestingly the YouTube deal totals $2 billion per year, but the article mentions the commercial part only being targeted for $200 million.

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I'm also guessing Streaming of sports games would also have commercials, which is additional revenue beyond the additional streaming fee for the P12 or MLS package. I've never watched a sports game on a streamer except ESPN3/ESPN+ so don't know.

I saw an article headline that commercial ads are accretive for Netflix and Disney+. Prob all falls to the Bottomline.

juarezbear said:

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CaliforniaEternal said:

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Without the LA schools there's a lot less reason for the Arizonas to stay. It seems like half of their schools are populated by SoCal kids that just want a party school experience. There will be less prestige for them to not be affiliated with SC and LA. They might decide the prospects are better to turn toward Texas, because their population is growing while California's is declining.

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The U of A prez said Texas is their next California in terms of out of state enrollment. Texas has a similar issue to UC but is more dire because UT Austin and tAm are the only two high quality public unis in the state. Unlike UC which spreads the wealth, the UT system is all about Austin and the A&M system is all about College Station. The other campuses fight over the scraps. Also, the Zona schools draw huge from Chicagoland area, and Michigan has a much higher out of state enrollment. As an out of state Cal student, I think having people from outside Cali is good for the overall experience.

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I was out of state too although I got in state tuition because my dad worked for Los Alamos National Lab which was managed by UC at the time and all UC employees stationed out of state get the non-resident tuition waiver. It was surprising how few of us there were at the time (20 years ago) and it did limit the diversity of the student body. My question is how does UT Austin have such a high acceptance rate (29%) when there is no other comparable in state school there?

The Pac-12 is talking with The CW as its TV deal negotiations extend into late spring or early summer.

Story with @slmandel on what we're hearing: https://t.co/EHfvRfJcJN

— Max Olson (@max_olson) April 7, 2023

Could Pac-12 football be coming to ⁦The CW?

The latest on the league’s TV negotiations, now expected to go until late spring/early summer, and Brett Yormark’s meetings with Pac-12 schools.

Reporting with ⁦@max_olson⁩. https://t.co/H6eQHWbzgS

— Stewart Mandel (@slmandel) April 7, 2023

BigDaddy said:

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The Pac-12 is talking with The CW as its TV deal negotiations extend into late spring or early summer.

Story with @slmandel on what we're hearing: https://t.co/EHfvRfJcJN

— Max Olson (@max_olson) April 7, 2023

Could Pac-12 football be coming to ⁦The CW?

The latest on the league’s TV negotiations, now expected to go until late spring/early summer, and Brett Yormark’s meetings with Pac-12 schools.

Reporting with ⁦@max_olson⁩. https://t.co/H6eQHWbzgS

— Stewart Mandel (@slmandel) April 7, 2023

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The article doesn't get into much detail about the CW other than "conversations" - but whether CW or Ion, would make sense if Apple/Amazon would sublicense some of their games to concurrently run OTA on these lesser channels, that way PAC still have games on liners tv likely on espn, plus those channels so less would be "streaming only"

BearSD said:

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The propaganda emanating from the Big 12 is thick, and sportswriters just transcribe it for them without verification, either because they are in cahoots with the Big 12 or just because it's an easy way to crank out content.

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It is Texas, hatred of the Left Coast and willingness to print propaganda is high, and that is from people who are nominally journalists, these are sports writers/sports fans where partisanship is even more rampant.

calumnus said:

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BearSD said:

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The propaganda emanating from the Big 12 is thick, and sportswriters just transcribe it for them without verification, either because they are in cahoots with the Big 12 or just because it's an easy way to crank out content.

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It is Texas, hatred of the Left Coast and willingness to print propaganda is high, and that is from people who are nominally journalists, these are sports writers/sports fans where partisanship is even more rampant.

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Stewart Mandel lives in the Bay Area.

BearSD said:

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The propaganda emanating from the Big 12 is thick, and sportswriters just transcribe it for them without verification, either because they are in cahoots with the Big 12 or just because it's an easy way to crank out content.

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Putting some of these CFB writers on a spectrum, I'd have it something like this, with Mandel being slightly on the Pro-Pac 12 side of the spectrum when it comes to chumming the water on realignment and Dennis Dodds being seemingly on Yormark's payroll and most folks in the middle really just writing cuz conference realignment gets clicks:

Canzano Pro- Pac 12

Wilner





Mandel

=======




Thamel

McMurphy




Dodds Big 12 Mouthpiece

BigDaddy said:

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calumnus said:

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BearSD said:

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The propaganda emanating from the Big 12 is thick, and sportswriters just transcribe it for them without verification, either because they are in cahoots with the Big 12 or just because it's an easy way to crank out content.

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It is Texas, hatred of the Left Coast and willingness to print propaganda is high, and that is from people who are nominally journalists, these are sports writers/sports fans where partisanship is even more rampant.

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Stewart Mandel lives in the Bay Area.

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But isn't he passing on a story uncovered by Max Olson, Nebraska grad who formerly worked for the HornsNetwork and lives in Austin, Texas?

calumnus said:

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BigDaddy said:

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calumnus said:

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BearSD said:

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The propaganda emanating from the Big 12 is thick, and sportswriters just transcribe it for them without verification, either because they are in cahoots with the Big 12 or just because it's an easy way to crank out content.

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It is Texas, hatred of the Left Coast and willingness to print propaganda is high, and that is from people who are nominally journalists, these are sports writers/sports fans where partisanship is even more rampant.

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Stewart Mandel lives in the Bay Area.

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But isn't he passing on a story uncovered by Max Olson, Nebraska grad who formerly worked for the HornsNetwork and lives in Austin, Texas?

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Your first post was perfectly clear, no need to connect the dots.

sosheezy said:

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BearSD said:

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The propaganda emanating from the Big 12 is thick, and sportswriters just transcribe it for them without verification, either because they are in cahoots with the Big 12 or just because it's an easy way to crank out content.

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Putting some of these CFB writers on a spectrum, I'd have it something like this, with Mandel being slightly on the Pro-Pac 12 side of the spectrum when it comes to chumming the water on realignment and Dennis Dodds being seemingly on Yormark's payroll and most folks in the middle really just writing cuz conference realignment gets clicks:

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I would put McMurphy right there with Dodd in the Big 12-enabler zone.

Canzano is the most pro-Pac writer because he's an Oregon writer first and foremost.

Wilner is generally sympathetic to the Pac but has a strong reflex toward "Oh no the sky is falling".

Most everyone else is doing it for clicks and also out of the same mentality as the folks who watch NASCAR races hoping to see a fiery crash.

WalterSobchak said:

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I really like this latest rumor not only because we've already been "informed" that CBS is not involved in bidding (The CW is partially owned by Paramount/CBS) but also because The CW is a nationwide basic cable / OTA network so this would actually be a great outcome from an exposure standpoint if the $$$ are competitive.

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And if the money sucks, then what?

WalterSobchak said:

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I really like this latest rumor not only because we've already been "informed" that CBS is not involved in bidding (The CW is partially owned by Paramount/CBS) but also because The CW is a nationwide basic cable / OTA network so this would actually be a great outcome from an exposure standpoint if the $$$ are competitive.

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Really seems like it is in ESPN's interest to give the PAC-12 a reasonable offer and lock up the PAC-12 after-dark Friday and Saturday slots, with the rest on streaming.