tequila4kapp said:
6956bear said:
tequila4kapp said:
Big Dog said:
tequila4kapp said:
BigDaddy said:
6 weeks ago. That's when GK was reported to be involved with SMU. This process has taken forever.
Dunno why this is so surprising.
The only reason to consider SMU is TV/cable money. OTOH, the academic Uni Presidents (particularly at Cal and Stanford) are still concerned about prestige (AAU) and about the same reason that the UC Regents pushed back on UCLA leaving, i.e., significantly increased travel.
GK can lay out the numbers, but unless those numbers are really compelling, i.e., multiple millions more per school, SMU don't get that Presidents' invite.
I wasn't commenting on SMU as much as I was commenting on the glacial pace. Consider:
July 2021 - Kliavkoff starts as new P12 commissioner
July 2021 - TX / OU announce departure for SEC
June 2022 - B12 reaches agreement for Cinci, Houston, UCF to join
June 2022 - Yormack new B12 commissioner
October 2022 - B12 new TV deal announced
February 2023 - Early departure agreement with TX / OU announced
February 2023 - P12 Presidents approve "next steps" with SMU / SDSU expansion process
Notice, the 1st and last entries are P12. All the other stuff is stuff the B12 got done in between.
Kliavkoff understimated significantly the P12 value for media rights. He has a tough job knowing that the B1G is potentially looking at adding schools and could add them as soon as 2024. Even with a reduced share that is a big enough number to get teams to move. So he needs a number that keeps everybody. That number is different depending on the school.
UO and UW may need around $40M per to stay and sign a GOR. Given the market that likely means unequal revenues in the P12. The payout could increase with SMU and SDSU but they likely need to agree to a lesser share to start. Maybe much less. Could the P12 presidents squeeze OSU and WSU and force lesser shares since on paper they have no options. What about Cal.
How long does the 4 corner schools wait on a deal? Does UW and UO have "handshake" deals with the B1G? Does Stanford or Cal? How much streaming is acceptable? Lots of questions. I do not like SDSU and SMU as considerations. I get why they are in play though.
The P12 presidents and chancelors are supposedly meeting today. This week for sure. A deadline of sorts has been rumored. That day is April 15. A significant date moving forward is April 17. That marks the first day of the new B1G commisioner. Although reports suggest that hire will not complete til perhaps May. This game of chicken continues.
There was a point in time when neither conference had a next tv deal and both conferences had members on their way out. Remember when each was talking about poaching from the other? The B12 acted quickly to add members and get their tv deal done. The 4 corner schools are now an instability to the P12 precisely because it has moved slowly. The B12 does not have the same instabilities because they moved quickly to shore things up.
The Big XII voted to invite BYU, Cincy, Houston, and UCF on Sept 10, 2021. That June 10, 2022 date is when it was announced that Cincy, Houston, and UCF would join for the 2023 season instead of 2024. The agreement to join was in 2021.
USC and UCLA announced their departure for the B1G on June 30, 2022.
There was never a point in time in which the Pac-12 had teams on their way out and the Big XII had no one on the way in.
That said ....
The day Texas and Oklahoma announced their departure to the SEC, I messaged a friend to say that Cal was soon going to be a mid-major because USC and others would bolt for the Big Ten. Many on this message board posted the same USC+X would bolt for the B1G thought. So how did USC's and UCLA's departure catch everyone so off-guard when it was so obvious to all of us "proclaiming things we have no actual knowledge of" types?