The Economy

18,260 Views | 403 Replies | Last: 16 min ago by tequila4kapp
Cal88
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Things could get a lot more interesting in a bad way if there is a flareup with Iran next month, Trump is engaging in a bit of dangerous if not reckless brinksmanship.
DiabloWags
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Cal88 said:

Things could get a lot more interesting in a bad way if there is a flareup with Iran next month, Trump is engaging in a bit of dangerous if not reckless brinksmanship.

I believe that the government is currently being run by a bunch of "frat bros" in the most amateur manner possible. Signalgate may have not been the Bay of Pigs, but I would assume that there is going to be much more incompetence displayed in grand fashion.

Interestingly enough, Trump met with auto CEO's and "threatened" them not to raise car prices.
Looks like Mt. Trump understands (at least in private) that these tariffs are not a free-cost to the consumer.

So much for getting wealthy off of tariffs.

DiabloWags
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The Top 10% of American households own 87% of the U.S. stock market.

Gee, I wonder what's going to happen to consumer spending given that their portfolios have been HAMMERED.


DiabloWags
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How to create a Recession by a stable genius who plays 3D chess.

Americans are spending less as they brace for new tariffs


bearister
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"Advance bookings for Canada-U.S. flights in April-September are down over 70% compared to this time last year, per aviation data firm OAG.

"This sharp drop suggests that travelers are holding off on making reservations, likely due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the broader trade dispute," writes OAG chief analyst John Grant.

Airlines are also reducing transborder capacity a strong signal that they, too, are seeing (or at least predicting) less demand.

Threat level: A mere 10% drop in Canadian visitors could cost U.S. businesses as much as $2.1 billion in revenue, TPG notes.

The big picture: Airline stocks are suffering mightily amid economic uncertainty and the prospect of continued trade wars.

Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and American Airlines are all down around 30-40% so far this year.
Several major airlines, including Delta and American, previously warned of soft first quarters amid weakening consumer demand."

Axios

You can go home, folks. Nothing to see here. Trump is just playing 3 dimensional chess again.



Trump is a sage, like Mose Allison.

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“I love Cal deeply. What are the directions to The Portal from Sproul Plaza?”
DiabloWags
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Goldman Sachs has now raised the possibility of a Recession to 35% from 20%

They must be reading Bearinsider
DiabloWags
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Atlanta Fed's GDPNow just fell off a cliff today with its Q1 GDP estimate.

- 3.7%

Impacted today by construction spending and ISM Manufacturing data.
Along with two consumer sentiment surveys.


bear2034
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Trump's economic global reset is going to put America ahead and fools like Wags behind.
bear2034
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DiabloWags
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MAGA for MORONS!

WHIRLPOOL ANNOUNCES LAY-OFFS IN IOWA.

ALL OF THOSE IDIOTS THAT VOTED FOR THE ORANGE CRAP STAIN GONNA LOSE THEIR JOB NOW.


DiabloWags
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Breaking News:

Powell Press Conference

"The tariffs are much higher than we had anticipated"

Doesn't sound like rates are coming down anytime soon.
No matter how much jawboning Trump does.



Cal88
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This one's for Bearister:


For CJay:


DiabloWags
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Those American Farmers who proudly wear those dumb MAGA CAPS are about to get ROYALLY SCREWED by Trump's trade war. So nice of them to sign up for taking "one" for the Maga Team!

China just blocked 5 U.S. Ag Commodities that they spent $27 BILLION on last year.

I guess these gullible losers will be filing for Bankruptcy.

MAGA FOR MORONS!



bearister
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Cal88 said:



This one's for Bearister:







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sycasey
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Cal88 said:


I'm not sure if you specifically are making this argument, but I've seen it making the rounds on Twitter, etc.: "Who cares if the stock market fails? I don't have stock LOL!" It's so dumb.

If the market tanks, then companies are less likely to hire and more likely to do layoffs. That's bad for you whether or not you have stock.
Cal88
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sycasey said:

Cal88 said:


I'm not sure if you specifically are making this argument, but I've seen it making the rounds on Twitter, etc.: "Who cares if the stock market fails? I don't have stock LOL!" It's so dumb.

If the market tanks, then companies are less likely to hire and more likely to do layoffs. That's bad for you whether or not you have stock.


Well yes, I also don't believe that Trump and Vance have actually hosted a penguin in the White House, I just thought those memes were pretty funny.

As to the point above, it's more about the increase in business costs and added friction from the tariffs that is the factor for employment than the stock market, the effects of a stock market drop are relatively less important on main street. For instance, the increase in lumber costs due to tariffs on Canadian imports or on vinyl flooring or rooftop material made in China, excavators made in Japan, trucks etc is going to result in fewer homes getting built.
DiabloWags
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Cal88 said:




As to the point above, it's more about the increase in business costs and added friction from the tariffs that is the factor for employment than the stock market, the effects of a stock market drop are relatively less important on main street. For instance, the increase in lumber costs due to tariffs on Canadian imports or on vinyl flooring or rooftop material made in China, excavators made in Japan, trucks etc is going to result in fewer homes getting built.

A terribly uneducated and bogus claim.

You complete discount and essentially IGNORE the FACT that consumer spending makes up 68% of GDP.

And guess who accounts for roughly HALF of all consumer spending in America?

The Top 10%

And guess who owns 87% of the U.S. stock market?

The Top 10%

Consumer spending just took a MASSIVE HIT.

Duh.


chazzed
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He is choking the economy, but fret not: he "won" his matchup in the tournament.

concordtom
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Quote:

WASHINGTON, April 4 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday called on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to cut interest rates, saying it was the "perfect time" to do so.

"CUT INTEREST RATES, JEROME, AND STOP PLAYING POLITICS!," Trump said on Truth Social.



Maybe Trump's play is to tank the economy so that Powell lowers rates. And then when that happens he can remove the tariffs which will fuel a boom bounce back and he'll claim that a success, all while lowering the debt.

Does that sound ridiculous?
Any more ridiculous than Trump himself?
concordtom
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chazzed said:

He is choking the economy, but fret not: he "won" his matchup in the tournament.




Who did he play against?
Some guy who simply knew his job was to lose.
wraptor347
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At this point that feels like a best case scenario.

I think he's more likely to use the tariffs to extort companies and countries for personal favors. In the same way he's shaking down law firms for his benefit.

If Elon, Thiel, nation states, etc give him enough money, he'll ease tariffs that effect them and keep/raise tariffs that hurt their competitors.
sycasey
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sonofabear51
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He cheated, as usual.
bearister
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chazzed said:

He is choking the economy, but fret not: he "won" his matchup in the tournament.



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“I love Cal deeply. What are the directions to The Portal from Sproul Plaza?”
DiabloWags
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Our Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says . . .

"For everyone who thinks these market declines are all based on the President's economic policies, I can tell you that this market decline started with the Chinese AI announcement of DeepSeek," Bessent commented in a Tucker Carslon interview.

Bessent is a former hedge fund manger, making the comments more remarkable.

"If I were the analyze in my old hat, and this is the only time I'm going to talk about it, ... what's happening with the market I'd say it's more a Mag 7 problem, not a MAGA problem," Bessent added.

"Look, the market goes up and down. Warren Buffett has a saying, in the short run, the market's a voting machine. In the long run, it's a weighing machine. And in the long run, it's going to go up and down. In a way, do we have good policies? And in my former business, I commented on market structure, market ups and downs a lot. I'm trying not to do that. But for everyone who thinks that these market declines are all based on the President's economic policies, I can tell you that this market decline started with the Chinese AI announcement of DeepSeek. Right. So-called MAG7, the tech stocks, had been doing very well for about 18 months, led the market. And I think that there's kind of a real dose of reality in what was going on in AI. And I think US is going to remain the leader in AI. But the AI-related stocks started coming down. So like if I were to analyze in my old hat, and this is the only time I'm going to talk about it, my old hat. I'm not going to talk about what's happening with the market. I'd say it's more a MAG7 problem and not a MAGA problem. Right."

Ummm... Deep Seek was announced by the Chinese back in January.
The market still rallied and didn't peak until Feb. 19th.

Just the FACTS.

WTH? Bessent tries to blame market sell-off on DeepSeek versus Trump's tariffs

concordtom
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Someone paying attention said to short copper.
I put some tickets in my list.
I just looked at COPP.
WOW.
concordtom
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Also ELON battleshares mocked.
Keep mocking!
concordtom
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Looking at the SP chart, we're going to 4100 range. It'll take a while, but there's scant action between here and there.
If that breaks, because Trump hasn't offered anything different, more downside below.


I ask again, what reason for upside is there right now?
None!
This is no "buy on the dips" or "they were just profit taking" sell off.

PS: Rosenberg says he thinks we are headed to recession and that this sell off is only half over.
Uh, that's what I was thinking.

SP lost 60% in 2009. We're not going that far! But 6k to 4k? Sure!




Cal88
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DiabloWags said:

Cal88 said:




As to the point above, it's more about the increase in business costs and added friction from the tariffs that is the factor for employment than the stock market, the effects of a stock market drop are relatively less important on main street. For instance, the increase in lumber costs due to tariffs on Canadian imports or on vinyl flooring or rooftop material made in China, excavators made in Japan, trucks etc is going to result in fewer homes getting built.

A terribly uneducated and bogus claim.

You complete discount and essentially IGNORE the FACT that consumer spending makes up 68% of GDP.

And guess who accounts for roughly HALF of all consumer spending in America?

The Top 10%

And guess who owns 87% of the U.S. stock market?

The Top 10%

Consumer spending just took a MASSIVE HIT.

Duh.




This is one of your most Boomerish takes, ever.

Bessant's counter-argument:



I don't think they are implementing the right solution here, at least not with their approach, but at least he is diagnosing the problem.
DiabloWags
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Boomerish?
Im stating FACTS.

Bessent admits that he wasnt even part of the "inner circle" that created these tariffs.

He also claimed that China's Deep Seek AI is what caused the market collapse. That announcement was made back in JANUARY.

Why you give him any credibility at all speaks volumes.

It makes you look terribly foolish.
Almost as ignorant as that movie clown character.

He was also partners with Soros in the 90's.
Soros bad.
Musk good.


Cal88
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DiabloWags said:

Boomerish?
Im stating FACTS.

Bessent admits that he wasnt even part of the "inner circle" that created these tariffs.

He also claimed that China's Deep Seek AI is what caused the market collapse. That announcement was made back in JANUARY.

Why you give him any credibility at all speaks volumes.

It makes you look terribly foolish.
Almost as ignorant as that movie clown character.

He was also partners with Soros in the 90's.
Soros bad.
Musk good.


The video of Bessent I posted above addressed the fact that among Americans the top 10% own 88% of the stock market, while the bottom half owns nothing and is indebted. And the fact that the top 10% as you have stated represents 68% of consumption is even more troubling.

You grew up at a time where a house cost $50k and tuition at Cal was a few hundred dollars per quarter. Since then the middle class has been gutted.

Once again, I don't think the tariff policy has been properly implemented, but at least I recognize that the policy makers seem to acknowledge that there is a fundamental problem in the economy today.
DiabloWags
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Cal88 said:




The video of Bessent I posted above addressed the fact that among Americans the top 10% own 88% of the stock market, while the bottom half owns nothing and is indebted. And the fact that the top 10% as you have stated represents 68% of consumption is even more troubling.

You grew up at a time where a house cost $50k and tuition at Cal was a few hundred dollars per quarter. Since then the middle class has been gutted.

Once again, I don't think the tariff policy has been properly implemented, but at least I recognize that the policy makers seem to acknowledge that there is a fundamental problem in the economy today.

This Administration is full of MORONS.
How can you not see that?

I got my hair cut yesterday.
My hair stylist told me that her brokerage account is down $85,000 in the last month.

She's not in the Top 10%.
She's middle-class.

oski003
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DiabloWags said:

Cal88 said:




The video of Bessent I posted above addressed the fact that among Americans the top 10% own 88% of the stock market, while the bottom half owns nothing and is indebted. And the fact that the top 10% as you have stated represents 68% of consumption is even more troubling.

You grew up at a time where a house cost $50k and tuition at Cal was a few hundred dollars per quarter. Since then the middle class has been gutted.

Once again, I don't think the tariff policy has been properly implemented, but at least I recognize that the policy makers seem to acknowledge that there is a fundamental problem in the economy today.

This Administration is full of MORONS.
How can you not see that?

I got my hair cut yesterday.
My hair stylist told me that her brokerage account is down $85,000 in the last month.

She's not in the Top 10%.
She's middle-class.




It is quite interesting that you go to a middle class hair stylist that has $800,000 in their brokerage account, given a 12% VTI loss. Maybe they are a bad day trader or bought EXAS when you recommended it and don't understand that a month is only 30 days?
DiabloWags
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GOTTA LOVE THE MAGA WHEN YOURE SHORT.

MAGA!!!

Cal88
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DiabloWags said:

Cal88 said:




The video of Bessent I posted above addressed the fact that among Americans the top 10% own 88% of the stock market, while the bottom half owns nothing and is indebted. And the fact that the top 10% as you have stated represents 68% of consumption is even more troubling.

You grew up at a time where a house cost $50k and tuition at Cal was a few hundred dollars per quarter. Since then the middle class has been gutted.

Once again, I don't think the tariff policy has been properly implemented, but at least I recognize that the policy makers seem to acknowledge that there is a fundamental problem in the economy today.

This Administration is full of MORONS.
How can you not see that?

I got my hair cut yesterday.
My hair stylist told me that her brokerage account is down $85,000 in the last month.

She's not in the Top 10%.
She's middle-class.



That puts her portfolio at $800k roughly, so she's pretty close to being in the top 10%, and definitely in it if she's a homeowner in the 925.
 
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