movielover said:

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Record tariff revenues are pouring in, really historic, as well as reshoring some manufacturing. Both are really the near miracles.

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The real "miracle" is how you continue to be in denial that tariffs are a TAX on the consumer.

Why are basic Econ. 1 concepts so foreign to you?

Did you really go to Cal?

movielover said:

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Rand doesn't see the big picture, what has he accomplished in all his years in Congress?

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OK ML, here's a challenge for you.

There are 535 members of Congress.

Name 5 of them that are better than Rand Paul.

Exactly.

Tariffs on those 2 commodities make zero sense. You need a tropical environment to grow them. Hawaii. Maybe Florida.

This just goes to show how Trump just makes things up when it comes to his tariffs. Many of these are not economically based. They're political.
.

Florida is not ideal for coffee, it is usually grown in higher altitudes in the tropics, like tea. The most sought after beans are grown at altitude, like the Jamaica Blue Mountain, Kona, and most of the Colombian and Vietnamese production is in mountains.

Professor Aswath Damodaran is the long time rock star Finance Professor at NYU's Stern School of Business. He taught finance to me and all the MBA's at Stern for the last several decades. He is greatly respected in the New York Wall Street community.

Here is a great interview of him I came across. The interviewer* asks him the normal questions about Fed actions and he replies it doesn't really matter because the Fed is a follower not a leader in the markets. It matches up with what I've always said here in that the Fed is the tail not the dog.

It's not that Damodaran taught us that but I do believe he taught us a core of finance that makes my thinking consistent with his. The obsession with the Fed is a shortcut from critical thinking. Instead of discussing real financials and the economy, which is all far more complex than Fedspeak, the investment community and media takes the shortcut of Fed obsession.



* This interviewer is swimming in the shallow end compared to Damodaran. Reminds me of the stories Damodaran would tell of stock picking cold callers phoning him. Damodaran would start with simple questions, gradually getting more complex until the cold caller would get frustrated and hang up. We all laughed at his stories and agreed it would be a nightmare to be calling Damodaran with a stock pick and having no idea who was on the other end of the line.

Cal88 said:

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Florida is not ideal for coffee, it is usually grown in higher altitudes in the tropics, like tea. The most sought after beans are grown at altitude, like the Jamaica Blue Mountain, Kona, and most of the Colombian and Vietnamese production is in mountains.

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I used to have a source for Puerto Rican coffee direct from the grower and it was really good. Unfortunately, they had an infestation of coffee borer worms around 2010 and it devastated the fairly small Puerto Rican coffee growing industry. I stopped buying it when I went to roast the last of the green coffee I had from there and the bag was full of little worms. I froze the rascals in our freezer before disposing of them to protect the eastern Oregon coffee growers, of which there are none. I didn't see much Puerto Rican coffee for over 10 years after that, but I've seen some around on the last few years. I bought some last year, but it wasn't as good as I remembered it.

What do your mentors say about a $38 Trillion (and growing) debt?

I know it's a wildcard idea, but Kevin O'Leary suggested that President Trump allocate new ANWAR taxes / fees directly to paying down our debt. He believes the markets would love this. Do you see any merit in this?

Regarding the deficit, some have suggested that we go back to our pre-Covid Federal budget, plus inflation. That would reduce hundreds of Billions in yearly deficits.

Our new Tariff revenues - if they stick - add $300 - $400 Billion per year. Unfortunately, I think that will merely embolden Congress to spend more.

movielover said:

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What do your mentors say about a $38 Trillion (and growing) debt?

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Here is what Damodaran says. Too bad you are swimming in the shallow end of memes / soundbites. Good luck.

Cal88 said:

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Florida is not ideal for coffee, it is usually grown in higher altitudes in the tropics, like tea.

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Im aware.
I mentioned Florida for Bananas.

dajo9 said:

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Professor Aswath Damodaran is the long time rock star Finance Professor at NYU's Stern School of Business. He taught finance to me and all the MBA's at Stern for the last several decades. He is greatly respected in the New York Wall Street community.

Here is a great interview of him I came across. The interviewer* asks him the normal questions about Fed actions and he replies it doesn't really matter because the Fed is a follower not a leader in the markets. It matches up with what I've always said here in that the Fed is the tail not the dog.

It's not that Damodaran taught us that but I do believe he taught us a core of finance that makes my thinking consistent with his. The obsession with the Fed is a shortcut from critical thinking. Instead of discussing real financials and the economy
. . .

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I think its pretty clear that the Fed is simply reacting to conditions in the market place, as it relates to their dual mandate. But make no mistake, the cost of money is at the heart of every business decision.

I think where people get into trouble when it comes to analyzing the role of the Fed in the econony, is that they often ignore the FISCAL role of Congress.

That fiscal role has nothing to do with the Fed.

oski003 said:

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DiabloWags said:

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movielover said:

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What do your mentors say about a $38 Trillion (and growing) debt?

I know it's a wildcard idea, but Kevin O'Leary suggested that President Trump allocate new ANWAR taxes / fees directly to paying down our debt. He believes the markets would love this. Do you see any merit in this?.

---

Youre assuming that it makes economic sense for oil companies to drill in ANWAR. The last time Biden opened leases up for auction, the demand was tepid at best.

Instead of just listening to Mr. Wonderful (who is not an oil man) do some homework on the cost of operating in ANWAR.

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I don't think he is talking about drilling in ANWR. He is discussing ANWAR taxes.

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And you'd be wrong about that.




https://finance.yahoo.com/news/norwegians-did-70s-could-today-114514750.html

DiabloWags said:

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oski003 said:

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DiabloWags said:

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movielover said:

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What do your mentors say about a $38 Trillion (and growing) debt?

I know it's a wildcard idea, but Kevin O'Leary suggested that President Trump allocate new ANWAR taxes / fees directly to paying down our debt. He believes the markets would love this. Do you see any merit in this?.

---

Youre assuming that it makes economic sense for oil companies to drill in ANWAR. The last time Biden opened leases up for auction, the demand was tepid at best.

Instead of just listening to Mr. Wonderful (who is not an oil man) do some homework on the cost of operating in ANWAR.

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I don't think he is talking about drilling in ANWR. He is discussing ANWAR taxes.

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And you'd be wrong about that.




https://finance.yahoo.com/news/norwegians-did-70s-could-today-114514750.html

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You may be right. Glad I qualified it with, "I don't think."

DiabloWags said:

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dajo9 said:

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Professor Aswath Damodaran is the long time rock star Finance Professor at NYU's Stern School of Business. He taught finance to me and all the MBA's at Stern for the last several decades. He is greatly respected in the New York Wall Street community.

Here is a great interview of him I came across. The interviewer* asks him the normal questions about Fed actions and he replies it doesn't really matter because the Fed is a follower not a leader in the markets. It matches up with what I've always said here in that the Fed is the tail not the dog.

It's not that Damodaran taught us that but I do believe he taught us a core of finance that makes my thinking consistent with his. The obsession with the Fed is a shortcut from critical thinking. Instead of discussing real financials and the economy
. . .

---

I think its pretty clear that the Fed is simply reacting to conditions in the market place, as it relates to their dual mandate. But make no mistake, the cost of money is at the heart of every business decision.

I think where people get into trouble when it comes to analyzing the role of the Fed in the econony, is that they often ignore the FISCAL role of Congress.

That fiscal role has nothing to do with the Fed.

---

Absolutely agree the fiscal role has more impact. As evidenced by the slow growth austerity of the post Great Recession years and the fiscal expansionary high growth inflationary post covid years. Also the financial volatility of the last 40 years from undertaxing wealth.

I think fiscal policy is purposely underplayed by elites who don't want to admit that government truly can play an impactful role.

dajo9 said:

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Interesting things are brewing in the world of liquidity. Private lenders seem to be pulling back and the government is soaking up liquidity with big Treasury auctions which is causing a liquidity shortage as evidenced by the spike in rates in the Fed repo markets. The liquidity shortage is why the Fed is ending QT, which pulls liquidity out of the market.

Yesterday Powell lowered their rate by .25% as expected but did not commit to a December cut and other rates on the yield curve went up, signaling a disconnect between what the Fed is doing and what the market wants. With a liquidity shortage, rates would trend up as money becomes scarce and valuable. Probably only a matter of time before "not QE" begins again. "Not QE" is when the Fed expands their balance sheet (buying securities and pumping liquidity into the economy) but says it isn't QE, like they did in 2019.

All of this keeps happening to Trump's economy so it must be Biden's fault.

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The Fed had an emergency meeting with the banks on Wednesday to discuss the overnight repo market and liquidity constraints. "Not-QE" incoming?

BREAKING 🚨: Banks

New York Fed apparently held an emergency meeting with Wall Street Banks to discuss money market liquidity concerns 🤯😱👀 pic.twitter.com/oYNELK3ZNs

— Barchart (@Barchart) November 15, 2025

Aunburdened said:

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dajo9 said:

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movielover said:

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What do your mentors say about a $38 Trillion (and growing) debt?

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Here is what Damodaran says. Too bad you are swimming in the shallow end of memes / soundbites. Good luck.

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Save yourself the 30 minutes, as this video doesn't actually address your question.

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If you dont understand valuation - what it is or what it means - I could see how you could come to that conclusion. Enjoy the shallow end.

dajo9 said:

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Aunburdened said:

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dajo9 said:

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movielover said:

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What do your mentors say about a $38 Trillion (and growing) debt?

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Here is what Damodaran says. Too bad you are swimming in the shallow end of memes / soundbites. Good luck.

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Save yourself the 30 minutes, as this video doesn't actually address your question.

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If you dont understand valuation - what it is or what it means - I could see how you could come to that conclusion. Enjoy the shallow end.

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If you had watched the video, and perhaps even more importantly if you had comprehended it, you would realize that the video was about a completely different topic. But by all means, show us your amazing comprehension of economics by linking to the exact part of the video where his question is addressed.

Bessett believes China deal will be done soon.

US Treasury’s Bessent: Rare earths deal will 'hopefully' be done by Thanksgiving, per FX

— Election Wizard (@ElectionWiz) November 17, 2025

Cal88 said:

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DiabloWags said:

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Cal88 said:

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Florida is not ideal for coffee, it is usually grown in higher altitudes in the tropics, like tea.

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Im aware.
I mentioned Florida for Bananas.

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Florida wouldn't work for bananas either, because the fruit has to be picked green and ripened over a couple of weeks afterwards, which makes it an ideal fruit to ship from distant lower cost places like central America.

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Bananas are in fact grown in Florida.
They are the chief US banana exporter.
They are grown in the southern regions like Miami-Dade County.
Roughly 500 acres, valued at roughly $2 million. Not a big commercial farming concern by any means.

But Hawaii is the leader when it comes to the conventional Cavendish banana.

At the end of the day, it doesn't matter.
Trump's tariffs on bananas and coffee is ridiculously stupid.

Banana production in the United States - Wikipedia

Thank You.
Let the bidding war begin!



Abbott is weighing takeover of Exact Sciences, Bloomberg News reports

oski003 said:

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DiabloWags said:

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oski003 said:

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That same guy just the other day mocked a post touting how 82% of the S&P 500 had beaten earnings estimates because it "failed" to mention that those estimates had been lowered earlier, yet he doesn't appear to comprehend that the market has hit record highs this year. That same guy shorted this same market at the beginning of the year and is horribly wrong on his predictions.

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Yeah, I'm horribly wrong on my predictions.
Just terrible when it comes to making money in the markets.





What is it that you do for a living again?
I forgot.

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You posted about investing in Natera on May 8. NTRA is down 2% since then. It is on brand for you to post gains after a spike and pretend like you only made money. Nice job. You rarely let me down.

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On May 8th the stock was at $162.
It's now at $218.35

Thanks for following.

Gee, I wonder what the percentage gain is for EXAS with a $105 buyout?