The Economy

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Cal88
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7:18a, 12/30/25


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cal83dls79
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7:29a, 12/30/25

Priest of the Patty Hearst Shrine
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Cal88
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In reply to cal83dls79 • 7:34a, 12/30/25
^Same picture with gold at $2,000 and at $4,500...
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cal83dls79
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In reply to Cal88 • 7:42a, 12/30/25
I think the argument is there are more in the right line for silver particularly …. like in a long time
Priest of the Patty Hearst Shrine
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DiabloWags
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In reply to Cal88 • 7:52a, 12/30/25
Someone is posting bogus quotes.

Current exchange rate to the USD is 1 Dirham = 0.272 USD

279.86 = $76.12

Dec. 30th.

Current Silver Prices in United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED)



"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
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Cal88
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In reply to DiabloWags • 8:24a, 12/30/25
DiabloWags said:
Someone is posting bogus quotes.

Current exchange rate to the USD is 1 Dirham = 0.272 USD

279.86 = $76.12

Dec. 30th.

Current Silver Prices in United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED)



The price quoted on that chart above was $349 Dirhams, about $95. The contention here is that this is the quote for a transaction in physical silver. The $76 price is the rate for paper silver contracts.
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DiabloWags
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In reply to Cal88 • 8:25a, 12/30/25
Cal88 said:
DiabloWags said:
Someone is posting bogus quotes.

Current exchange rate to the USD is 1 Dirham = 0.272 USD

279.86 = $76.12

Dec. 30th.

Current Silver Prices in United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED)



The price quoted on that chart above was $349 Dirhams, about $95. The contention here is that this is the quote for a transaction in physical silver. The $76 price is the rate for paper silver contracts.


Sounds like a helluva arbitrage opportunity.
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
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Cal88
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In reply to DiabloWags • 8:32a, 12/30/25
Very interesting situation, either the spot market believes that the price spike is a bubble and not sustainable, or it is actively trying to lower prices due to many banks being in a short squeeze in the face of fundamental shifts in that market?
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DiabloWags
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In reply to Cal88 • 8:52a, 12/30/25
Cal88 said:
Very interesting situation, either the spot market believes that the price spike is a bubble and not sustainable, or it is actively trying to lower prices due to many banks being in a short squeeze in the face of fundamental shifts in that market?


The COMEX has long been known as the futures market.
London, the world's largest center for physical trading.

Lease rates have skyrocketed for physical.

In London for example, a one-month implied lease rate hit 39% in early October. Two month: 19%
With some overnight rates exceeding 200% annualized.

Meanwhile, the futures market is in deep backwardation, where the front month exceeds the price of back months. This inversion points to overwhelming immediate demand for physical silver.

Traditionally, the silver market has been in contango. That's where futures are higher in the back months due to storage and financing costs. But in October, this relationship "flipped" dramatically to a nearly $2 inversion between spot and the December contract for Silver.



That having been said, I want to see how the Silver Market reacts to new export restrictions that start on Jan. 1st.
They are imposing a new export-licensing regime where the govt will be the "gatekeeper" of roughly 120 million ounces of annual silver exports to the rest of the world.

This decision to restrict exports is what ran Silver up big last week.

China launches its silver weapon on Jan. 1. Here's what that means for prices. | Morningstar




"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
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PAC-10-BEAR
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6:35p, 12/31/25
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DiabloWags
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In reply to PAC-10-BEAR • 6:57p, 12/31/25
Am thankful for Abbott Labs taking 26,000 shares of Exact Sciences (EXAS) off of my hands for $105 per share in a $21 Billion acquisition.
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
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PAC-10-BEAR
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In reply to DiabloWags • 7:01p, 12/31/25
Google's performance at 64% was surprising.
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DiabloWags
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In reply to PAC-10-BEAR • 7:09p, 12/31/25
They're still growing.
Cloud revenue was up 34%
They topped $100 Billion in revenue last quarter.

First time ever.

The VP of Engineering was a small donor to an animal welfare non-profit I was a board member of.
He oversees 9,000 engineers. Is one helluva race car driver too!

Has set lap records in the GT class at 3 tracks in a Ford GT Mark IV

COTA in Austin
Road Atlanta
Laguna Seca
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
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DiabloWags
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1:08p, 1/2/26
Fed injects $75 Billion on January 1st into Standing Repo Facility.

Probably not a sign of distress.
Most likely reflects routine year-end funding patterns.


"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
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BearlySane88
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12:02p, 1/3/26
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PAC-10-BEAR
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12:12p, 1/3/26

Risk on. What stocks have we bought recently or preparing to buy this year?

2023 was the year for $NVDA with +250% gains.

2024 was the year for $PLTR with +340% gains.

2025 was the year for $IREN with 300%+ gains.

2026 it is the year for $ONDS with over 400%+ upside??

We also have several highly anticipated IPO's this year: SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic.

Bitcoin and crypto also expected to enter the banana zone as the 4-year cycle was delayed and liquidity is now being injected into the economy.
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PAC-10-BEAR
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1:03p, 1/3/26

Unlike physical gold or silver!
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dajo9
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11:43a, 1/6/26
The stock market loves a good war
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PAC-10-BEAR
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In reply to dajo9 • 11:44a, 1/6/26
dajo9 said:
The stock market loves a good war

What war?
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DiabloWags
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In reply to PAC-10-BEAR • 11:54a, 1/6/26
PAC-10-BEAR said:

Unlike physical gold or silver!


And yet Bitcoin fell last year and got totally OUTPERFORMED by gold and silver.

So much for the "debasement" trade being a key catalyst driving Bitcoin higher.
Remember all of those calls earlier in the year?

Ooops!

Gold +70%
Silver +150%

Bitcoin - 6%

Lot's of bag holders and dead bodies across the crypto landscape.
Estimates suggest that around 17,000 crypto currencies are no longer "active".

lol


"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
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smh
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In reply to DiabloWags • 11:54a, 1/6/26
DiabloWags said:
Fed injects $75 Billion on January 1st into Standing Repo Facility.

thanks, never heard of them before, and likely won't again..
https://en.econreporter.com/57372/standing-repo-facility-feds-post-qt-tool
FUNK TRUNK !
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PAC-10-BEAR
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In reply to DiabloWags • 12:00p, 1/6/26
The liquidity injection didn't happen in 2025 but will in 2026. The Fed stopped tightening in December. The four year bitcoin cycle was broken so it's different this time.

Bitcoin is further down the investment risk curve from commodities and historically starts to rise after gold. Since it's a much smaller asset, it will run up much higher with hard swings to the downside as well. It's going to be fun.
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oski003
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12:08p, 1/6/26
Any thoughts on XRP. Have a few people close to me that are pushing it. They say it is like the new VISA.
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PAC-10-BEAR
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In reply to oski003 • 12:23p, 1/6/26
oski003 said:
Any thoughts on XRP. Have a few people close to me that are pushing it. They say it is like the new VISA.

Bitcoiners think it's a joke because there doesn't appear to be a use case for it. But the same thing is said by critics of the entire crypto industry.

I don't understand the attraction to XRP but for whatever reason, its market cap is rather large compared with other altcoins. It's popular among retail buyers and I think it will pump hard this year, especially when people start receiving their tax refund checks. XRP also seems to be very popular overseas in places like Korea.
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movielover
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12:39p, 1/6/26
Car sales up.



EVs not selling.

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PAC-10-BEAR
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In reply to movielover • 1:42p, 1/6/26
movielover said:
Car sales up.

Best since 2019? The experts were wrong again?
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cal83dls79
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In reply to PAC-10-BEAR • 2:08p, 1/6/26
Households earning more than $150,000 a year now buy 43% of the new cars sold in the U.S., up from 30% in 2019, according to Cox Automotive. Meanwhile, households earning less than $75,000 make up just 26% of sales, down from 37%.

That shift helped push the average new vehicle sales price above $50,000 for the first time ever in September, as higher-income buyers gravitated toward larger, more expensive vehicles.

"We have inventory under $40,000 it's just not moving the way it used to because the buyers who would've purchased it can't afford new vehicles anymore," Cox Automotive executive analyst Erin Keating said on a December call.
Priest of the Patty Hearst Shrine
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LudwigsFountain
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In reply to cal83dls79 • 2:52p, 1/6/26
cal83dls79 said:
Households earning more than $150,000 a year now buy 43% of the new cars sold in the U.S., up from 30% in 2019, according to Cox Automotive. Meanwhile, households earning less than $75,000 make up just 26% of sales, down from 37%.

That shift helped push the average new vehicle sales price above $50,000 for the first time ever in September, as higher-income buyers gravitated toward larger, more expensive vehicles.

"We have inventory under $40,000 it's just not moving the way it used to because the buyers who would've purchased it can't afford new vehicles anymore," Cox Automotive executive analyst Erin Keating said on a December call.

I'm amazed anyone buys a new car. My strategy was to buy low mileage certified used ones, maintain them religiously and drive them as long as possible. Got 420,000 miles out of the last one.
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Aunburdened
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In reply to LudwigsFountain • 5:08p, 1/6/26
LudwigsFountain said:
cal83dls79 said:
Households earning more than $150,000 a year now buy 43% of the new cars sold in the U.S., up from 30% in 2019, according to Cox Automotive. Meanwhile, households earning less than $75,000 make up just 26% of sales, down from 37%.

That shift helped push the average new vehicle sales price above $50,000 for the first time ever in September, as higher-income buyers gravitated toward larger, more expensive vehicles.

"We have inventory under $40,000 it's just not moving the way it used to because the buyers who would've purchased it can't afford new vehicles anymore," Cox Automotive executive analyst Erin Keating said on a December call.

I'm amazed anyone buys a new car. My strategy was to buy low mileage certified used ones, maintain them religiously and drive them as long as possible. Got 420,000 miles out of the last one.

My first two new cars were each less than $20,000. Then we had kids and upgraded to a minivan that was around $30K. New car smell was worth it at those prices. Not at current prices. Will buy used going forward.
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movielover
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5:45p, 1/6/26
Scotty Kilmer says he never spent more than $3,000 for a car, but heck, he's a mechanic.
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PAC-10-BEAR
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In reply to LudwigsFountain • 5:47p, 1/6/26
LudwigsFountain said:
cal83dls79 said:
Households earning more than $150,000 a year now buy 43% of the new cars sold in the U.S., up from 30% in 2019, according to Cox Automotive. Meanwhile, households earning less than $75,000 make up just 26% of sales, down from 37%.

That shift helped push the average new vehicle sales price above $50,000 for the first time ever in September, as higher-income buyers gravitated toward larger, more expensive vehicles.

"We have inventory under $40,000 it's just not moving the way it used to because the buyers who would've purchased it can't afford new vehicles anymore," Cox Automotive executive analyst Erin Keating said on a December call.

I'm amazed anyone buys a new car. My strategy was to buy low mileage certified used ones, maintain them religiously and drive them as long as possible. Got 420,000 miles out of the last one.

You put on 420k miles after buying it used? What kind of car was it?
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Cal88
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In reply to Aunburdened • 6:26p, 1/6/26
The rest of the world has access to Chinese EVs which are roughly half the price of cars currently on the US market for comparable quality.
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LudwigsFountain
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In reply to PAC-10-BEAR • 9:45p, 1/6/26
PAC-10-BEAR said:
LudwigsFountain said:
cal83dls79 said:
Households earning more than $150,000 a year now buy 43% of the new cars sold in the U.S., up from 30% in 2019, according to Cox Automotive. Meanwhile, households earning less than $75,000 make up just 26% of sales, down from 37%.

That shift helped push the average new vehicle sales price above $50,000 for the first time ever in September, as higher-income buyers gravitated toward larger, more expensive vehicles.

"We have inventory under $40,000 it's just not moving the way it used to because the buyers who would've purchased it can't afford new vehicles anymore," Cox Automotive executive analyst Erin Keating said on a December call.

I'm amazed anyone buys a new car. My strategy was to buy low mileage certified used ones, maintain them religiously and drive them as long as possible. Got 420,000 miles out of the last one.

You put on 420k miles after buying it used? What kind of car was it?

Acura Integra. To be clear, 420.000 was the total, not what I put on it. Also a lot of those miles were freeway and anti commute direction. However, did manage to keep the manual clutch intact, despite daily trips up the Berkeley Hills. After driving with me a mechanic friend said there are gentle drivers and hard drivers and that I was the gentle kind, Said that cars belonging to gentle drivers last way longer.
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DiabloWags
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In reply to PAC-10-BEAR • 6:42a, 1/7/26
PAC-10-BEAR said:
movielover said:
Car sales up.

Best since 2019? The experts were wrong again?


No, not really.



$19.5B EV loss forces Ford to fire hundreds as F-150 Lightning line shuts down overnight
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
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DiabloWags
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1:44p, 1/7/26
Can't wait for the bond market vigilantes to make a return.
That 4.13% yield on the 10-year is pure fantasy.

"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
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