The Latest Rumors

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Rushinbear
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In reply to philly1121 • 10:36a, 7/6/22
philly1121 said:
Perhaps because the media market doesn't mean much when it comes to Stanford or Cal? Yeah its a big market - but it contains two teams that are not winning. There is upside, yes. But I think if they wanted both of us (as natural partners), it likely would have happened when they took USC and UCLA. They would essentially have locked up California market.
Any port in a storm: if B1g goes with Cal, Furd, OR, and UW, that would open the west coast recruiting faucet since AZs, Utah and CO would be trying to recruit into a lesser league. Grasping, I know.

People have been touting the Bay as a big market (not the biggest, obviously), but what are the percentages when there is less interest in sports and watching them as there is in most any other market that size, excluding the north east? Just guessing.
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philbert
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10:43a, 7/6/22

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sycasey
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In reply to Rushinbear • 10:46a, 7/6/22
Rushinbear said:
philly1121 said:
Perhaps because the media market doesn't mean much when it comes to Stanford or Cal? Yeah its a big market - but it contains two teams that are not winning. There is upside, yes. But I think if they wanted both of us (as natural partners), it likely would have happened when they took USC and UCLA. They would essentially have locked up California market.
Any port in a storm: if B1g goes with Cal, Furd, OR, and UW, that would open the west coast recruiting faucet since AZs, Utah and CO would be trying to recruit into a lesser league. Grasping, I know.

People have been touting the Bay as a big market (not the biggest, obviously), but what are the percentages when there is less interest in sports and watching them as there is in most any other market that size, excluding the north east? Just guessing.
Not sure there is all that much more proportional sports interest in L.A. either, but since the market is just THAT big you want to be in it anyway.

The Bay Area is basically the next biggest in that regard. And remember, it's not just about local interest in the local team, it's also about how much more interest you can create with Big Ten alumni who now live there. Remember how many Ohio State or Northwestern fans showed up to Memorial when we played them? Yeah.
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Boot
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In reply to sycasey • 10:48a, 7/6/22
I've read Stanford to Big10 Cal to ACC. What a joke.



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82gradDLSdad
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In reply to 59bear • 10:58a, 7/6/22
59bear said:
MinotStateBeav said:
82gradDLSdad said:
Here's the only thing I know about this: don't include the number of schools in your conference name.
Le Grande Vingt-Quatrely you didn't take French at Cal
Clearly you were not a French major!


Hey, Google translate worked on it. I had to look it up.
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sycasey
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11:02a, 7/6/22
Big if true.

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socaltownie
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11:03a, 7/6/22
Doesn't the B1G _HAVE TO_ (doesn't have to right this very moment but has to before 2024 and definately before anyone makes a serious TV contract/Grant of rights committment) add West Coast teams? I mean I GUESS it could ROYALLY screw (oh the irony) USC and UCLA and leave them with no closer conference rival than Nebraska but I can not BELIEVE that USC and UCLA were that short sighted in not thinking about that.

(And if you think about it - that would be really funny and ironic - the B1G kneecaps the Pac12 _AND_ essentially relegates USC and UCLA to an afterthought while sucking up the $$$ from the LA market. The extra money does NOT make up for how horrific it will be for really every student athlete to be doing that flying for competitions).
Take care of your Chicken
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Unit2Sucks
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In reply to WalterSobchak • 12:05p, 7/6/22
WalterSobchak said:
I'm all in on this and hope Christ, Knowlton, etc. are too (apologies as I assume everyone's seen it already):

https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/voq5mn/b1g_endgame_speculation/
B1G East and Pacific are so much stronger in football. Would you do a 4 team playoff for the conference title?!? Then 8 team playoff for natty? Not sure how that would all work.
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philly1121
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In reply to socaltownie • 1:14p, 7/6/22
socaltownie said:
Doesn't the B1G _HAVE TO_ (doesn't have to right this very moment but has to before 2024 and definately before anyone makes a serious TV contract/Grant of rights committment) add West Coast teams? I mean I GUESS it could ROYALLY screw (oh the irony) USC and UCLA and leave them with no closer conference rival than Nebraska but I can not BELIEVE that USC and UCLA were that short sighted in not thinking about that.

(And if you think about it - that would be really funny and ironic - the B1G kneecaps the Pac12 _AND_ essentially relegates USC and UCLA to an afterthought while sucking up the $$$ from the LA market. The extra money does NOT make up for how horrific it will be for really every student athlete to be doing that flying for competitions).

Depends. Both SC and UCLA jumped, at least from information available, regardless of whether any other California or West Coast school would join the Big10. And surely USC and UCLA - especially USC - would have some say in who would join the Big 10 from future expansion.

There is NO WAY USC is treated as an afterthought in the Big 10. UCLA possibly because they were probably brought as part of a package. Admittedly its all speculation but for right now, the Big 10 is waiting for Notre Dame to make a decision. If ND says yes, then Stanford goes in.

Perhaps not in this round, but at some point - ND has to go to a conference. Its a pure monetary decision. they're good right now. But if that changes, and its the only independent school, then the balance shifts to ND needing to join a conference.
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maxer
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In reply to philly1121 • 1:19p, 7/6/22

Quote:
There is NO WAY USC is treated as an afterthought in the Big 10. UCLA possibly because they were probably brought as part of a package. Admittedly its all speculation but for right now, the Big 10 is waiting for Notre Dame to make a decision. If ND says yes, then Stanford goes in.
That's a big assumption that I don't think can be responsibly presented as a fait accompli at this point. Maybe.


Quote:
Perhaps not in this round, but at some point - ND has to go to a conference. Its a pure monetary decision. they're good right now. But if that changes, and its the only independent school, then the balance shifts to ND needing to join a conference.
Why? If they can renegotiate their contract with NBC, or a streaming service, or another network, as the program with true coast to coast appeal, and then layer on more sources of revenue (playoff money, whatever it is) and not have to share that revenue with anyone else, ever, that sounds like a pretty good place to be to me.
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calumnus
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In reply to maxer • 1:32p, 7/6/22
maxer said:

Quote:
There is NO WAY USC is treated as an afterthought in the Big 10. UCLA possibly because they were probably brought as part of a package. Admittedly its all speculation but for right now, the Big 10 is waiting for Notre Dame to make a decision. If ND says yes, then Stanford goes in.
That's a big assumption that I don't think can be responsibly presented as a fait accompli at this point. Maybe.


Quote:
Perhaps not in this round, but at some point - ND has to go to a conference. Its a pure monetary decision. they're good right now. But if that changes, and its the only independent school, then the balance shifts to ND needing to join a conference.
Why? If they can renegotiate their contract with NBC, or a streaming service, or another network, as the program with true coast to coast appeal, and then layer on more sources of revenue (playoff money, whatever it is) and not have to share that revenue with anyone else, ever, that sounds like a pretty good place to be to me.


Yeah, if they join a 20 team conference that conference has to generate more than 20 times what Notre Dame can generate on its own. Plus, I think their fans like being able to see all their games on NBC every week.
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calumnus
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In reply to sosheezy • 1:42p, 7/6/22
sosheezy said:
fat_slice said:
sosheezy said:
There is no rush to join the Big 12, even by the AZ schools, Utah and CO. The Big 12 has no other natural conference partners that are additive to their TV deals. They will take the Pac 12 schools whenever. Even if a renegotiated PAC 12 deal or a Bicoastal ACC PAC 12 partnership the BACCPAC conference(?) blows up in a few years because the Big 10 finally decides to poach whomever, the Big 12 fallback is there.


If this partnership happens, how important is it that cal football becomes relevant? My guess is that it is not important because media market seems to be the biggest driver? But if that is the case, not sure why Big10 just didn't take Stanford/cal to come on the cheap while locking up the bay area.
In any scenario, Cal needs to kick ass and gain relevancy, as the ultimate play remains getting into the Big 10 or the inevitable big boy superleague. I agree, I think it makes sense for the Big 10 to act now - but just was going off of what Wilner reported - if true, and they are holding at 16 for a few years, I don't think the 4 southwest Pac 12 schools (and/or Ore/UW or even Stanford/Cal - though less reported interest there) need to rush to the Big 12 to secure their future like today/this week. They can let the Pac 12 try to get the best deal it can.


We need to win AND improve our marketing. With the Raiders gone and the Niners in Santa Clara, we need to own the BART footprint. We need to assert ourselves as the STATE flagship. The B1G schools are mostly state schools that are not located in the largest metro in the state and so for example Illinois, Champaign-Urbana should understand that just like UIC is not Illinois, UCLA is not California.
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philly1121
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In reply to maxer • 1:45p, 7/6/22
maxer said:

Quote:
There is NO WAY USC is treated as an afterthought in the Big 10. UCLA possibly because they were probably brought as part of a package. Admittedly its all speculation but for right now, the Big 10 is waiting for Notre Dame to make a decision. If ND says yes, then Stanford goes in.
That's a big assumption that I don't think can be responsibly presented as a fait accompli at this point. Maybe.


Quote:
Perhaps not in this round, but at some point - ND has to go to a conference. Its a pure monetary decision. they're good right now. But if that changes, and its the only independent school, then the balance shifts to ND needing to join a conference.
Why? If they can renegotiate their contract with NBC, or a streaming service, or another network, as the program with true coast to coast appeal, and then layer on more sources of revenue (playoff money, whatever it is) and not have to share that revenue with anyone else, ever, that sounds like a pretty good place to be to me.

Oh come on maxer. It is an absolute match for Notre Dame! If we're just talking opponents, all their natural rivals are in the Big 10 - Michigan, MSU, USC, Stanford. The only ones not in there are BC and Navy. I'm not treating this as a done deal, I'm saying that it makes the most sense for the Big10. There is no way that USC is going to be marginalized in the Big 10.

But that's where they are at right now, aren't they? ND is the only one that has that. But that changes if they have a couple bad seasons or the conferences realign towards 2-3 conferences. Of course they want to stay independent. But realignment may make them shift so they're not on the outside looking in.
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juarezbear
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In reply to maxer • 2:42p, 7/6/22
maxer said:

Quote:
There is NO WAY USC is treated as an afterthought in the Big 10. UCLA possibly because they were probably brought as part of a package. Admittedly its all speculation but for right now, the Big 10 is waiting for Notre Dame to make a decision. If ND says yes, then Stanford goes in.
That's a big assumption that I don't think can be responsibly presented as a fait accompli at this point. Maybe.


Quote:
Perhaps not in this round, but at some point - ND has to go to a conference. Its a pure monetary decision. they're good right now. But if that changes, and its the only independent school, then the balance shifts to ND needing to join a conference.
Why? If they can renegotiate their contract with NBC, or a streaming service, or another network, as the program with true coast to coast appeal, and then layer on more sources of revenue (playoff money, whatever it is) and not have to share that revenue with anyone else, ever, that sounds like a pretty good place to be to me.
I agree. ND won't have a financial incentive to join any league because NBC will continue their contract forever. It's a unique brand in a business that is going up in value.
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Golden One
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In reply to philly1121 • 3:09p, 7/6/22
philly1121 said:


Oh come on maxer. It is an absolute match for Notre Dame! If we're just talking opponents, all their natural rivals are in the Big 10 - Michigan, MSU, USC, Stanford.
Stanford is in the Big 10 now? I must have missed that news.
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juarezbear
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In reply to Golden One • 3:28p, 7/6/22
Golden One said:
philly1121 said:


Oh come on maxer. It is an absolute match for Notre Dame! If we're just talking opponents, all their natural rivals are in the Big 10 - Michigan, MSU, USC, Stanford.
Stanford is in the Big 10 now? I must have missed that news.
He was saying Stanford would be a natural rival for ND IF they were both in the B1G.
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BigDaddy
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In reply to philly1121 • 3:43p, 7/6/22
philly1121 said:
socaltownie said:
Doesn't the B1G _HAVE TO_ (doesn't have to right this very moment but has to before 2024 and definately before anyone makes a serious TV contract/Grant of rights committment) add West Coast teams? I mean I GUESS it could ROYALLY screw (oh the irony) USC and UCLA and leave them with no closer conference rival than Nebraska but I can not BELIEVE that USC and UCLA were that short sighted in not thinking about that.

(And if you think about it - that would be really funny and ironic - the B1G kneecaps the Pac12 _AND_ essentially relegates USC and UCLA to an afterthought while sucking up the $$$ from the LA market. The extra money does NOT make up for how horrific it will be for really every student athlete to be doing that flying for competitions).
. If ND says yes, then Stanford goes in.

Agree, although Stanford could also be bumped by North Carolina if the ACC starts to come apart. That league is vulnerable due to it's close proximity to the SEC and B1G.

Stanford is benefitting from the relationship they've developed with ND over the last decade plus with their annual football series. But their situation is still precarious...
“My tastes are simple; I am easily satisfied with the best.” - Winston Churchill
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Vandalus
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In reply to philly1121 • 4:00p, 7/6/22
It's sort of shocking how much money ND is leaving on the table by staying independent. Their NBC deal is worth $15m a year, and they get something like $20-$30 I believe from the ACC. That's way short of the $100m+ that the B10 can offer (and likely the evaluation is going to be higher with the LA schools now).
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Vandalus
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In reply to juarezbear • 4:03p, 7/6/22
juarezbear said:
maxer said:

Quote:
There is NO WAY USC is treated as an afterthought in the Big 10. UCLA possibly because they were probably brought as part of a package. Admittedly its all speculation but for right now, the Big 10 is waiting for Notre Dame to make a decision. If ND says yes, then Stanford goes in.
That's a big assumption that I don't think can be responsibly presented as a fait accompli at this point. Maybe.


Quote:
Perhaps not in this round, but at some point - ND has to go to a conference. Its a pure monetary decision. they're good right now. But if that changes, and its the only independent school, then the balance shifts to ND needing to join a conference.
Why? If they can renegotiate their contract with NBC, or a streaming service, or another network, as the program with true coast to coast appeal, and then layer on more sources of revenue (playoff money, whatever it is) and not have to share that revenue with anyone else, ever, that sounds like a pretty good place to be to me.
I agree. ND won't have a financial incentive to join any league because NBC will continue their contract forever. It's a unique brand in a business that is going up in value.

What kind of cash can ND get from NBC on a renegotiated deal right now? Would NBC really go from $15m to $75m+? I thought the new ND deal was re-signed in 2018. Thats a huge jump; or am I missing something?
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philbert
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4:17p, 7/6/22
ND makes a ton of money outside of their TV contract. They may not need the extra TV money. We shall see.

In any case, if you have a subscription, this gives insight into their mindset.

https://theathletic.com/2732745/2021/07/27/notre-dame-the-elephant-in-the-realignment-room-loves-its-independence-thats-not-likely-to-change-not-even-for-truckloads-of-money/
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juarezbear
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In reply to Vandalus • 4:38p, 7/6/22
Vandalus said:
It's sort of shocking how much money ND is leaving on the table by staying independent. Their NBC deal is worth $15m a year, and they get something like $20-$30 I believe from the ACC. That's way short of the $100m+ that the B10 can offer (and likely the evaluation is going to be higher with the LA schools now).
I think you're way off on the NBC money. I thought they got something closer to $100M/year from NBC, otherwise it makes no sense at all.
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DiabloWags
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In reply to juarezbear • 4:47p, 7/6/22
juarezbear said:
Vandalus said:
It's sort of shocking how much money ND is leaving on the table by staying independent. Their NBC deal is worth $15m a year, and they get something like $20-$30 I believe from the ACC. That's way short of the $100m+ that the B10 can offer (and likely the evaluation is going to be higher with the LA schools now).
I think you're way off on the NBC money. I thought they got something closer to $100M/year from NBC, otherwise it makes no sense at all.

Back in April of 2013, ND extended their TV deal with NBC through the 2025 season
NBC has been covering them since 1991.
It's $15 million per year.

ND also brings in $7.9 million partial share from the ACC and the $3.2 million that it is guaranteed from the College Football Playoff, plus any extra money that the school gets from bowl and CFP appearances. So, ND's current deal is pretty close to what the ACC pays out to its members for football ($29.5 million).

Interestingly enough, the WSJ said that ND had $118 million in revenues from Football in 2019.
And Forbes had ND posting a $72 million profit in 2018.

College Football Value Rankings - WSJ.com


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Big C
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In reply to juarezbear • 4:50p, 7/6/22
juarezbear said:
Golden One said:
philly1121 said:


Oh come on maxer. It is an absolute match for Notre Dame! If we're just talking opponents, all their natural rivals are in the Big 10 - Michigan, MSU, USC, Stanford.
Stanford is in the Big 10 now? I must have missed that news.
He was saying Stanford would be a natural rival for ND IF they were both in the B1G.

Somebody explain to me why Stanfurd has ever been, is now, or will ever be "natural rivals" with Notre Dame.

I'm not sure a home-and-home series over the past recent years is sufficient to make the qualification.
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Bobodeluxe
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In reply to Big C • 4:57p, 7/6/22
Big C said:
juarezbear said:
Golden One said:
philly1121 said:


Oh come on maxer. It is an absolute match for Notre Dame! If we're just talking opponents, all their natural rivals are in the Big 10 - Michigan, MSU, USC, Stanford.
Stanford is in the Big 10 now? I must have missed that news.
He was saying Stanford would be a natural rival for ND IF they were both in the B1G.

Somebody explain to me why Stanfurd has ever been, is now, or will ever be "natural rivals" with Notre Dame.

I'm not sure a home-and-home series over the past recent years is sufficient to make the qualification.
If you had attended any of the alumni events in SF on the weekends of their games, you would get it. Loud, inebriated men, accompanied by board, diamond flashing wives, mixing in roughly equal numbers.
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bearister
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In reply to Bobodeluxe • 4:59p, 7/6/22
Bob Fitzgerald went to ND. The End.
Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside
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philbert
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5:01p, 7/6/22
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Blueblood
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In reply to bearister • 5:01p, 7/6/22
bearister said:
Bob Fitzgerald went to ND. The End.
CAL RELUCTANTLY JOINS THE MOUNTAIN WEST: This is just short of a doomsday scenario for Cal, and could be the move that severs its historic relationship with rival Stanford. Would possibly become a final option if Oregon, Washington and Stanford wind up in the Big Ten, and Utah, Colorado, Arizona and ASU bolt to the Big 12, leaving the Pac-12 in ruins. The MWC is a solid league but a clear step down from the Pac-12, as much on the academic side as on the football field. Cal would seemingly only make the move if it had no other place to go to remain an FBS school. (Same applies to Oregon State and Washington State). Would the Mountain West even want Cal? Oh, absolutely.

-From MSNBC
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philly1121
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In reply to Big C • 5:04p, 7/6/22
Big C said:
juarezbear said:
Golden One said:
philly1121 said:


Oh come on maxer. It is an absolute match for Notre Dame! If we're just talking opponents, all their natural rivals are in the Big 10 - Michigan, MSU, USC, Stanford.
Stanford is in the Big 10 now? I must have missed that news.
He was saying Stanford would be a natural rival for ND IF they were both in the B1G.

Somebody explain to me why Stanfurd has ever been, is now, or will ever be "natural rivals" with Notre Dame.

I'm not sure a home-and-home series over the past recent years is sufficient to make the qualification.

Haven't they played since 1988? I don't think they played in 2020 because of covid but I think its 34 years straight apart from that.
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59bear
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In reply to sycasey • 5:21p, 7/6/22
sycasey said:
philly1121 said:
Perhaps because the media market doesn't mean much when it comes to Stanford or Cal? Yeah its a big market - but it contains two teams that are not winning. There is upside, yes. But I think if they wanted both of us (as natural partners), it likely would have happened when they took USC and UCLA. They would essentially have locked up California market.
Once again: the reporting suggests the Big 10 is holding serve until they know what Notre Dame is doing. No one else is getting an invite until then. It doesn't mean Cal/Stanford are off the table.
But if ND goes to the Big, it would make sense to take 1 or 3 others (to maintain an even number of members), likely leaving 1 (3) of UW, UO, LSJU, Cal on the outside looking in. I don't like our prospects in that scenario.
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bipolarbear
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In reply to juarezbear • 5:26p, 7/6/22
juarezbear said:
Vandalus said:
It's sort of shocking how much money ND is leaving on the table by staying independent. Their NBC deal is worth $15m a year, and they get something like $20-$30 I believe from the ACC. That's way short of the $100m+ that the B10 can offer (and likely the evaluation is going to be higher with the LA schools now).
I think you're way off on the NBC money. I thought they got something closer to $100M/year from NBC, otherwise it makes no sense at all.
If they don't now they will have.
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WayneBear
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6:27p, 7/6/22
As I mentioned elsewhere, this guy is connected to West Virginia and thus focuses on Big 12, but has been mostly unbiased in reporting rumors as far as what the networks are pushing for (and at this point, it seems the Pac-10 is reliant largely on ESPN):







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jamonit
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In reply to juarezbear • 6:29p, 7/6/22
juarezbear said:
Vandalus said:
It's sort of shocking how much money ND is leaving on the table by staying independent. Their NBC deal is worth $15m a year, and they get something like $20-$30 I believe from the ACC. That's way short of the $100m+ that the B10 can offer (and likely the evaluation is going to be higher with the LA schools now).
I think you're way off on the NBC money. I thought they got something closer to $100M/year from NBC, otherwise it makes no sense at all.


They make only 15 mil because it was signed awhile ago. Remember when we signed our long term deal it was for big money at the time. ACC has the same problem. Their deal lasts until 2036 and that will look worse as we get closer to the date. ND contract is up in 2026 so you expect a huge price jump for them. It is ideal for them to not be in conference stuck to conference schedules.
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jamonit
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In reply to WayneBear • 6:33p, 7/6/22
WayneBear said:
As I mentioned elsewhere, this guy is connected to West Virginia and thus focuses on Big 12, but has been mostly unbiased in reporting rumors as far as what the networks are pushing for (and at this point, it seems the Pac-10 is reliant largely on ESPN):









That is a horrible deal. 22 million each team or 37 mil for Oregon and Washington who will have a tougher schedule. That is nothing money in todays market of B1G and SEC getting 100 mil. It would still be the death of our league.
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Red Coyote
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6:38p, 7/6/22
I thought 300 mil sounded high.
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calumnus
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In reply to jamonit • 6:41p, 7/6/22
jamonit said:
WayneBear said:
As I mentioned elsewhere, this guy is connected to West Virginia and thus focuses on Big 12, but has been mostly unbiased in reporting rumors as far as what the networks are pushing for (and at this point, it seems the Pac-10 is reliant largely on ESPN):









That is a horrible deal. 22 million each team or 37 mil for Oregon and Washington who will have a tougher schedule. That is nothing money in todays market of B1G and SEC getting 100 mil. It would still be the death of our league.


Playing 2 ACC teams each year is not necessarily "tougher" than the usual. This year Oregon plays Georgia and BYU.
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