The Latest Rumors

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southseasbear
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ducktilldeath said:

southseasbear said:

If we have to add schools, I'm favorably inclined toward UNLV, Nevada, Colorado State (rumored to be in line to receive the next invite to the prestigious AAU), and/or SD State.

Schools I don't wnat to see include Fresno State, Boise State, and BYU.
I'm along these lines. SDSU and UNLV for the markets. Nevada because they're not Utah State.

No former JCs, or universities run by JC.
And no religious schools.
Fire Knowlton!
Fire Fox!
Put Wilcox in a hot seat!
ducky23
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ducktilldeath said:

southseasbear said:

If we have to add schools, I'm favorably inclined toward UNLV, Nevada, Colorado State (rumored to be in line to receive the next invite to the prestigious AAU), and/or SD State.

Schools I don't wnat to see include Fresno State, Boise State, and BYU.
I'm along these lines. SDSU and UNLV for the markets. Nevada because they're not Utah State.

No former JCs, or universities run by JC.


You tell'em duckfan. We can't have any incoming schools tarnish Oregon's academic reputation
ducktilldeath
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ducky23 said:

ducktilldeath said:

southseasbear said:

If we have to add schools, I'm favorably inclined toward UNLV, Nevada, Colorado State (rumored to be in line to receive the next invite to the prestigious AAU), and/or SD State.

Schools I don't wnat to see include Fresno State, Boise State, and BYU.
I'm along these lines. SDSU and UNLV for the markets. Nevada because they're not Utah State.

No former JCs, or universities run by JC.


You tell'em duckfan. We can't have any incoming schools tarnish Oregon's academic reputation
If Oregon were allowed to have an engineering program and hadn't had OHSU removed from the university that founded, staffed, financed and ran it for decades, their rankings might be a smidge higher. 20 year olds who take online Laravel classes can make $140,000 a year working from home. The UO is a member of the AAU and a top 100ish institution in the country. The important thing is that people get an education, period. Academic smack is for fans of programs who care about the director's cup because their football and basketball programs suck. Great women's field hockey program though!
TandemBear
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wifeisafurd said:

GoCal80 said:

Here's an article by a young Daily Cal reporter that despite his youth totally understands Cal athletics:

https://www.dailycal.org/2022/10/19/cal-football-has-given-up-should-fans-give-up-too?fbclid=IwAR0vsNflZOykHl8RRmfTe55mDCvR9tx4aBbWQ8HayYmoqe9bfJ4NrCwueO8
Disturbing how smart the students are these days.
Well-written, but he flubbed the buyout amount:

""Fire Wilcox" is catchy enough. But is that really feasible? No, it's not. Wilcox's six-year contract extension, which he signed in March of this year, states that his buyout is $3.6 million at the end of this year. That figure will increase by $150,000 at the end of each season."

I think he forgot to add, "...his buyout is $3.6 million PER YEAR at the end of this year."
dimitrig
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TandemBear said:

wifeisafurd said:

GoCal80 said:

Here's an article by a young Daily Cal reporter that despite his youth totally understands Cal athletics:

https://www.dailycal.org/2022/10/19/cal-football-has-given-up-should-fans-give-up-too?fbclid=IwAR0vsNflZOykHl8RRmfTe55mDCvR9tx4aBbWQ8HayYmoqe9bfJ4NrCwueO8
Disturbing how smart the students are these days.
Well-written, but he flubbed the buyout amount:

""Fire Wilcox" is catchy enough. But is that really feasible? No, it's not. Wilcox's six-year contract extension, which he signed in March of this year, states that his buyout is $3.6 million at the end of this year. That figure will increase by $150,000 at the end of each season."

I think he forgot to add, "...his buyout is $3.6 million PER YEAR at the end of this year."



Knowlton is an effing idiot

TomBear
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Hey southseas......why not religious schools? BYU has a solid and good program. It fits nicely because of the rivalry with Utah. Their academics can't be any worse than UNLV or SDSU. And they're plenty competitive. So, what's the problem?
movielover
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Interesting how Sacramento is passed over.
Fire Starkey
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TomBear said:

Hey southseas......why not religious schools? BYU has a solid and good program. It fits nicely because of the rivalry with Utah. Their academics can't be any worse than UNLV or SDSU. And they're plenty competitive. So, what's the problem?
I dont care about the religious aspect but BYU and Colorado State add nothing to be of interest to TV contracts. That's what drives school movement (brand or markets), not natural rivalries. BYU may have some national appeal due to the Mormon diaspora element but thats it
TomBear
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Don't discount that national footprint for BYU.

Years ago, I had to work a temporary job in Logan and BYU had their own TV station broadcasting Cougar games. They still have a national TV network (can be streamed) which, at least at one time, carried Cougar sports.

Right now, I think that part of the commissioner's concerns is just keeping the conference together if he can. BYU/Utah and Colorado State/Colorado might help keep both mountain schools from bailing into another opportunity.

I think the addition of SDSU, UNLV, Nevada, Boise......all would degrade the previously strong academic characteristic of the conference. Also, without checking, I'll guess that BYU and Colorado State have larger stadiums than the other options (minus UNLV who couldn't even fill their tiny stadium before moving to the plastic fantastic Raider stadium). Boise has a good size stadium (despite that stupid blue turf) and they do fill it pretty well. But their academics are certainly not overly impressive.
southseasbear
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TomBear said:

Hey southseas......why not religious schools? BYU has a solid and good program. It fits nicely because of the rivalry with Utah. Their academics can't be any worse than UNLV or SDSU. And they're plenty competitive. So, what's the problem?
It's not a good fit because it is not a national research university and has no chance of being admitted to the AAU. Plus, we would the opportunity have games on Sundays.
Fire Knowlton!
Fire Fox!
Put Wilcox in a hot seat!
TomBear
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Neither are some of the other schools cited. At some point, if the conference wishes to make a priority of adding schools, they're going to have to make some hard choices.

BTW, again, I'm not sure, but I don't think OSU, nor Arizona State are AAU universities. I'm not at all sure Utah is either. All I know is not all current members of the conference are AAU.
berserkeley
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TomBear said:

Don't discount that national footprint for BYU.

Years ago, I had to work a temporary job in Logan and BYU had their own TV station broadcasting Cougar games. They still have a national TV network (can be streamed) which, at least at one time, carried Cougar sports.

Right now, I think that part of the commissioner's concerns is just keeping the conference together if he can. BYU/Utah and Colorado State/Colorado might help keep both mountain schools from bailing into another opportunity.

I think the addition of SDSU, UNLV, Nevada, Boise......all would degrade the previously strong academic characteristic of the conference. Also, without checking, I'll guess that BYU and Colorado State have larger stadiums than the other options (minus UNLV who couldn't even fill their tiny stadium before moving to the plastic fantastic Raider stadium). Boise has a good size stadium (despite that stupid blue turf) and they do fill it pretty well. But their academics are certainly not overly impressive.
Adding BYU and Colorado St isn't necessary to keep Colorado and Utah. As long as the Big Ten doesn't raid the Pac-12 further and the money is there, those schools are staying. Colorado would much prefer to be affiliated with the likes of Cal and Stanford.

So the #1 concern for expansion candidates has to be TV revenue. I hope they also consider recruiting grounds. Losing those LA games really hurts recruiting. Adding schools in Dallas and Houston would help offset that loss.
southseasbear
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TomBear said:

Neither are some of the other schools cited. At some point, if the conference wishes to make a priority of adding schools, they're going to have to make some hard choices.

BTW, again, I'm not sure, but I don't think OSU, nor Arizona State are AAU universities. I'm not at all sure Utah is either. All I know is not all current members of the conference are AAU.
I believe OSU is a charter member of the conference. It is one of only 4 schools in the country that is a land grant, space grant, sea grant, and sun grant university. The Carnegie Foundation consistently ranks it among the "most prestigious" doctoral universities.

I might be inclined to agree with you about ASU but that decision was made decades ago (and I opposed it then). They were and remain a tradition rival to Arizona, which is an AAU member.

BYU? Seriously, it's not good fit with the rest of the conference. It is not considered a national research univiersity like OSU, ASU, and the rest of the conference. Let them stay in the Big 12 which they will be joining in 2023.
Fire Knowlton!
Fire Fox!
Put Wilcox in a hot seat!
sycasey
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Arizona State, Oregon State, and Washington State are not AAU schools.

I would bet that BYU draws more TV viewers than anyone else who would be currently considered as an add-on to the Pac-12. That may be moot anyway, though, since they are already joining the Big 12.
philly1121
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To be fair, there is Cal, Stanford, UCLA and perhaps USC. And then there's everybody else on the West Coast, Northwest and Southwest. We are the elite. I don't think comparing a BYU, UA, UNLV or SDSU to the elite is quite fair.

SDSU is pretty competitive to get into. Of course there is no comparison to any UC school admission rate or Stanford or USC. But we're not normal. UNLV is a Carnegie recognized research university.

We aren't going to find the value that we had with USC and UCLA. Even if we go to Texas. UNLV and SDSU aren't rivals but no one seems to care about rivalries anymore. We add them, we get to go to Vegas and San Diego. Food for thought.
Oski87
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calumnus said:

MrGPAC said:

The networks are going to be determining who we do and don't add.

Right now the Pac12 comissioner is giving a list of schools and what they do with the contract and determining how hard he goes after each one.

If we are worth 500 million as is, and 525 million with hawaii, we aren't adding hawaii. If we are worth 600 million with hawaii we are probably adding them.

Traveling logistics and cultural fit be damned...this is all about the money.


The benefit of Hawaii is that games there would give us an exclusive late, late slot after the 7:00 Pacific (10:00 PM EST) slot, when bars are still open on Saturdays on the East Coast and all over the US. And help us expand our brand to Asia and Australia with live games during prime time. Plus keep Hawaii talent from going to the SEC and keep them in the PAC-12.

But yes, TV contracts wil determine if that is valuable.
I love the Hawaii idea, but I think the easier solution is for Cal to have an annual game with Hawaii. Thanksgiving weekend. I would go every other year there and they could come here. Plus we would get a 13th game, which would give us the ability to get 7 home games each year. And help us recruit to the islands - with a home thanksgiving dinner for the 65 Poly kids on our team...
BigDaddy
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MrGPAC said:

The networks are going to be determining who we do and don't add.

Right now the Pac12 comissioner is giving a list of schools and what they do with the contract and determining how hard he goes after each one.

If we are worth 500 million as is, and 525 million with hawaii, we aren't adding hawaii. If we are worth 600 million with hawaii we are probably adding them.

Traveling logistics and cultural fit be damned...this is all about the money.

The Pac-12 isn't worth $500 million.
“My tastes are simple; I am easily satisfied with the best.” - Winston Churchill
calumnus
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Oski87 said:

calumnus said:

MrGPAC said:

The networks are going to be determining who we do and don't add.

Right now the Pac12 comissioner is giving a list of schools and what they do with the contract and determining how hard he goes after each one.

If we are worth 500 million as is, and 525 million with hawaii, we aren't adding hawaii. If we are worth 600 million with hawaii we are probably adding them.

Traveling logistics and cultural fit be damned...this is all about the money.


The benefit of Hawaii is that games there would give us an exclusive late, late slot after the 7:00 Pacific (10:00 PM EST) slot, when bars are still open on Saturdays on the East Coast and all over the US. And help us expand our brand to Asia and Australia with live games during prime time. Plus keep Hawaii talent from going to the SEC and keep them in the PAC-12.

But yes, TV contracts wil determine if that is valuable.
I love the Hawaii idea, but I think the easier solution is for Cal to have an annual game with Hawaii. Thanksgiving weekend. I would go every other year there and they could come here. Plus we would get a 13th game, which would give us the ability to get 7 home games each year. And help us recruit to the islands - with a home thanksgiving dinner for the 65 Poly kids on our team...


Yeah, I forgot to mention the benefit of the 13th game.
philbert
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We should know something about fucla's fate in two weeks....hopefully.

movielover
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Bill Walton came out strongly against the move.
wifeisafurd
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So a show of hands: is UCLA forced to stay, either by Regents ruling or being forced to face a material withdrawal payment to Cal or UC, of does the Regents say adios?
sosheezy
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wifeisafurd said:

So a show of hands: is UCLA forced to stay, either by Regents ruling or being forced to face a material withdrawal payment to Cal or UC, of does the Regents say adios?
I think we say adios, and they have to pay a minimal exit payment for 5 years (like < $5M/yr)
calumnus
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sosheezy said:

wifeisafurd said:

So a show of hands: is UCLA forced to stay, either by Regents ruling or being forced to face a material withdrawal payment to Cal or UC, of does the Regents say adios?
I think we say adios, and they have to pay a minimal exit payment for 5 years (like < $5M/yr)


That would be great if the exit fee went to us. $5 million per year for 5 years would allow us to buy out Knowlton immediately and have the new AD replace Fox after the season and Wilcox after next year if his next OC hire is again a dud. Of course, Christ appears to have no interest in that.

Other than Newsome and the Regents being pissed that they were not consulted, is anyone from Cal lobbying for this payment?

My guess is UCLA gets a slap on the wrist and Cal gets nothing.
sycasey
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wifeisafurd said:

So a show of hands: is UCLA forced to stay, either by Regents ruling or being forced to face a material withdrawal payment to Cal or UC, of does the Regents say adios?
Adios with a payment, dependent on what Cal's next conference payout will be (either in the Pac or the B1G or another conference).
6956bear
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sosheezy said:

wifeisafurd said:

So a show of hands: is UCLA forced to stay, either by Regents ruling or being forced to face a material withdrawal payment to Cal or UC, of does the Regents say adios?
I think we say adios, and they have to pay a minimal exit payment for 5 years (like < $5M/yr)
I am leaning this direction as well. I expect some sort of penalty, but not to force UCLA to stay in the P12.
calumnus
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6956bear said:

sosheezy said:

wifeisafurd said:

So a show of hands: is UCLA forced to stay, either by Regents ruling or being forced to face a material withdrawal payment to Cal or UC, of does the Regents say adios?
I think we say adios, and they have to pay a minimal exit payment for 5 years (like < $5M/yr)
I am leaning this direction as well. I expect some sort of penalty, but not to force UCLA to stay in the P12.


Does the penalty payment go to Cal?
6956bear
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calumnus said:

6956bear said:

sosheezy said:

wifeisafurd said:

So a show of hands: is UCLA forced to stay, either by Regents ruling or being forced to face a material withdrawal payment to Cal or UC, of does the Regents say adios?
I think we say adios, and they have to pay a minimal exit payment for 5 years (like < $5M/yr)
I am leaning this direction as well. I expect some sort of penalty, but not to force UCLA to stay in the P12.


Does the penalty payment go to Cal?
I would think so. How they decide to distribute the payment is unknown. If it goes to the Regents Cal reaps no benefit other than it is being recognized that UCLA leaving has a negative impact on Cal. But who knows how this group will respond.
Sebastabear
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6956bear said:

sosheezy said:

wifeisafurd said:

So a show of hands: is UCLA forced to stay, either by Regents ruling or being forced to face a material withdrawal payment to Cal or UC, of does the Regents say adios?
I think we say adios, and they have to pay a minimal exit payment for 5 years (like < $5M/yr)
I am leaning this direction as well. I expect some sort of penalty, but not to force UCLA to stay in the P12.
Two weeks ago I would have agreed with this. Now I'm not so sure. More and more signs popping up they may actually derail this move, which I would have thought was a zero percent chance initially. I have been told that this is the meeting where this is all going down. We'll know in two weeks.

But there is absolutely no chance UCLA leaves, Cal stays and there is NOT a payment to Cal. That one definitely isn't happening - or at least would require a total 180 from every person I've spoken with who is in a position to influence this.
philbert
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6956bear said:

calumnus said:

6956bear said:

sosheezy said:

wifeisafurd said:

So a show of hands: is UCLA forced to stay, either by Regents ruling or being forced to face a material withdrawal payment to Cal or UC, of does the Regents say adios?
I think we say adios, and they have to pay a minimal exit payment for 5 years (like < $5M/yr)
I am leaning this direction as well. I expect some sort of penalty, but not to force UCLA to stay in the P12.


Does the penalty payment go to Cal?
I would think so. How they decide to distribute the payment is unknown. If it goes to the Regents Cal reaps no benefit other than it is being recognized that UCLA leaving has a negative impact on Cal. But who knows how this group will respond.
I recall that there were a few Cal grads that were Regents. They were the most vocal during this process and I'm sure would be pushing for any penalty payment to goto Cal since Cal was the being directly damaged via a lesser media deal by fucla leaving.
philbert
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Sebastabear said:

6956bear said:

sosheezy said:

wifeisafurd said:

So a show of hands: is UCLA forced to stay, either by Regents ruling or being forced to face a material withdrawal payment to Cal or UC, of does the Regents say adios?
I think we say adios, and they have to pay a minimal exit payment for 5 years (like < $5M/yr)
I am leaning this direction as well. I expect some sort of penalty, but not to force UCLA to stay in the P12.
Two weeks ago I would have agreed with this. Now I'm not so sure. More and more signs popping up they may actually derail this move, which I would have thought was a zero percent chance initially. I have been told that this is the meeting where this is all going down. We'll know in two weeks.

But there is absolutely no chance UCLA leaves, Cal stays and there is NOT a payment to Cal. That one definitely isn't happening - or at least would require a total 180 from every person I've spoken with who is in a position to influence this.
Sebasta coming in with the knowledge! Respect!
gardenstatebear
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I wonder if there is a possibility that the Regents will say to the Big Ten, "If you want UCLA, you have to take Cal." (kind of like "I'll date you only if you find someone to date my sister.") If the Big Ten takes Cal, they might as well take Stanford, Washington and Oregon. Is it a pipe dream? Maybe. I do expect that if UCLA gets to go to the Big Ten, Cal is going to get some money out of that. What will Cal do with that money? Who knows? My guess is that a lot will be used to reimburse the campus for taking on the debt from the stadium renovation project. I got one of Chancellor Christ's e-mails to friends of the campus saying how wonderful it is that we value our athletes for more than their athletic ability and how marvelous it is that we raised $8 million for the gender equity program. I have no problems with either of those, but they do not sound like dedication to improving our performance on the gridiron.
calumnus
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Sebastabear said:

6956bear said:

sosheezy said:

wifeisafurd said:

So a show of hands: is UCLA forced to stay, either by Regents ruling or being forced to face a material withdrawal payment to Cal or UC, of does the Regents say adios?
I think we say adios, and they have to pay a minimal exit payment for 5 years (like < $5M/yr)
I am leaning this direction as well. I expect some sort of penalty, but not to force UCLA to stay in the P12.
Two weeks ago I would have agreed with this. Now I'm not so sure. More and more signs popping up they may actually derail this move, which I would have thought was a zero percent chance initially. I have been told that this is the meeting where this is all going down. We'll know in two weeks.

But there is absolutely no chance UCLA leaves, Cal stays and there is NOT a payment to Cal. That one definitely isn't happening - or at least would require a total 180 from every person I've spoken with who is in a position to influence this.


Ok, sounds great! Keeping my fingers crossed.

The second question is what Cal does with the money.

Is there any mechanism by which Cal could use it to rid ourselves of the contracts for Knowlton, Fox and Wilcox or would it just help us pay for them as our performance and revenues from the revenue sports sink lower?
Sebastabear
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calumnus said:

Sebastabear said:

6956bear said:

sosheezy said:

wifeisafurd said:

So a show of hands: is UCLA forced to stay, either by Regents ruling or being forced to face a material withdrawal payment to Cal or UC, of does the Regents say adios?
I think we say adios, and they have to pay a minimal exit payment for 5 years (like < $5M/yr)
I am leaning this direction as well. I expect some sort of penalty, but not to force UCLA to stay in the P12.
Two weeks ago I would have agreed with this. Now I'm not so sure. More and more signs popping up they may actually derail this move, which I would have thought was a zero percent chance initially. I have been told that this is the meeting where this is all going down. We'll know in two weeks.

But there is absolutely no chance UCLA leaves, Cal stays and there is NOT a payment to Cal. That one definitely isn't happening - or at least would require a total 180 from every person I've spoken with who is in a position to influence this.


Ok, sounds great! Keeping my fingers crossed.

The second question is what Cal does with the money.

Is there any mechanism by which Cal could use it to rid ourselves of the contracts for Knowlton, Fox and Wilcox or would it just help us pay for them as our performance and revenues from the revenue sports sink lower?
My point (which I hammer to anyone who will listen ad nauseum) is that football money (and let's be honest, that's what this is) needs to be spent on football. If football succeeds then so does the department. If football fails then so does the department. We can't "budget" our way to success in the athletic department.

We are spending at 8th in the conference on football. And we keep coming in at 8th place. What a surprise. The University needs to devote more football money to football. Anything thing else is a recipe for this entire thing imploding.
bearchamp
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What is the economic impact if Cal abolishes athletic grants? If football dies other sports are already self-funding
so maybe net economic result is not as dire as you say.
Bobodeluxe
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UCLA is forced to cancel the deal. UCLA is then forced to pay exit fee to P1G. UCLA and the UC Berkeley Bears are asked to share that penalty payment to the P1G in the range of $25 million each.
 
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