bearchamp said:

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What is the economic impact if Cal abolishes athletic grants? If football dies other sports are already self-funding
so maybe net economic result is not as dire as you say.

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Uh, what? Yeah that would be awesome. That is also completely incorrect.

Bobodeluxe said:

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UCLA is forced to cancel the deal. UCLA is then forced to pay exit fee to P1G. UCLA and the UC Berkeley Bears are asked to share that penalty payment to the P1G in the range of $25 million each.

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Without approval of the Regents it's not a valid contract. If not a valid contract, how can there be an exit fee?

Cal_79 said:

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Bobodeluxe said:

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UCLA is forced to cancel the deal. UCLA is then forced to pay exit fee to P1G. UCLA and the UC Berkeley Bears are asked to share that penalty payment to the P1G in the range of $25 million each.

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Without approval of the Regents it's not a valid contract. If not a valid contract, how can there be an exit fee?

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Say one thing: If UCLA is forced to cancel the deal, that is a total screw job on SC, and I would expect that the B1G will respond by making a lucrative offer to another nearby Pac school to be USC's partner in the B1G.

Cal_79 said:

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Bobodeluxe said:

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UCLA is forced to cancel the deal. UCLA is then forced to pay exit fee to P1G. UCLA and the UC Berkeley Bears are asked to share that penalty payment to the P1G in the range of $25 million each.

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Without approval of the Regents it's not a valid contract. If not a valid contract, how can there be an exit fee?

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Why wouldn't it be an valid contract? The UC Regents delegate contract authority to the campuses. That doesn't mean the Regents have in control, but would likely have to abide by the exit clauses if there are any. It's also possible the deal has not exit fee and is framed in some way to not fully execute until the Pac 12 deal binding UCLA and USC to the p12 is up in summer 2024.

wifeisafurd said:

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Cal_79 said:

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Bobodeluxe said:

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UCLA is forced to cancel the deal. UCLA is then forced to pay exit fee to P1G. UCLA and the UC Berkeley Bears are asked to share that penalty payment to the P1G in the range of $25 million each.

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Without approval of the Regents it's not a valid contract. If not a valid contract, how can there be an exit fee?

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Say one thing: If UCLA is forced to cancel the deal, that is a total screw job on SC, and I would expect that the B1G will respond by making a lucrative offer to another nearby Pac school to be USC's partner in the B1G.

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Okay

In other related news:

An important hurdle has been cleared for SDSU on the academic front (awarding of doctorates) https://t.co/42CrVIcip0

— Jon Wilner (@wilnerhotline) November 2, 2022

Question for everyone here-

What amount of money would be an appropriate amount to receive if the regents decide to go with the payment option. What I mean is, what figure should we be satisfied with? 10M payout is nothing. 500M and it's the greatest day ever. Point is, there's a spectrum and what's the threshold where we look at it and are happy with our payout as compensation?

Golden One said:

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eastcoastcal said:

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Question for everyone here-

What amount of money would be an appropriate amount to receive if the regents decide to go with the payment option. What I mean is, what figure should we be satisfied with? 10M payout is nothing. 500M and it's the greatest day ever. Point is, there's a spectrum and what's the threshold where we look at it and are happy with our payout as compensation?

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Enough money to pay the buyouts for Knowlton, Wilcox, and Fox. That would enable the rejuvenation of Cal football and men's basketball.

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Wilcox: 25M (after this year)
Fox: 3.5 M (after this year)
Knowlton ~8M (?) --> 6.5 base and talent + 2.1 retention. Not sure what buyout clause if but worst case 100%

So roughly a 35M infusion should do the trick if this is the barometer of a successful compensation payment

*Figures used may be slightly off

calumnus said:

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eastcoastcal said:

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Golden One said:

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eastcoastcal said:

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Question for everyone here-

What amount of money would be an appropriate amount to receive if the regents decide to go with the payment option. What I mean is, what figure should we be satisfied with? 10M payout is nothing. 500M and it's the greatest day ever. Point is, there's a spectrum and what's the threshold where we look at it and are happy with our payout as compensation?

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Enough money to pay the buyouts for Knowlton, Wilcox, and Fox. That would enable the rejuvenation of Cal football and men's basketball.

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Wilcox: 25M (after this year)
Fox: 3.5 M (after this year)
Knowlton ~8M (?) --> 6.5 base and talent + 2.1 retention. Not sure what buyout clause if but worst case 100%

So roughly a 35M infusion should do the trick if this is the barometer of a successful compensation payment

*Figures used may be slightly off

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Knowlton originally gave Fox a five year contract and then gave him a two-year extension "for COVID." This is only year four. Thus he would get close to $9 million if we fired him after this year.

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ok see I am a fair bit confused on this-- as far as I understood it, Fox's contract originally ran through '23-'24 season, and then Fox gave him a 1 year extension for COVID, meaning Fox runs through '25 now. (So after this season, two seasons left, 1.7ish buyout per year). However in the recent article about Cal basketball the author suggested that Fox was given a 2-year extension. So I am not sure what to think.

Can someone do a public records request like we did for Wilcox?

wifeisafurd said:

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philbert said:

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In other related news:

An important hurdle has been cleared for SDSU on the academic front (awarding of doctorates) https://t.co/42CrVIcip0

— Jon Wilner (@wilnerhotline) November 2, 2022

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It should be obvious by now that SDSU is replacing USC.

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What if the P1G replaces ucla with San Diego State?

Bobodeluxe said:

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wifeisafurd said:

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philbert said:

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In other related news:

An important hurdle has been cleared for SDSU on the academic front (awarding of doctorates) https://t.co/42CrVIcip0

— Jon Wilner (@wilnerhotline) November 2, 2022

---

It should be obvious by now that SDSU is replacing USC.

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What if the P1G replaces ucla with San Diego State?

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That is a great question. I suspect that the B1G would go after Stanford instead to avoid facing a fight with the Pac before the CS Board of Trustees. No offense to SDSU, but Stanford also has a superior athletics and academics profile.

wifeisafurd said:

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Bobodeluxe said:

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wifeisafurd said:

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philbert said:

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In other related news:

An important hurdle has been cleared for SDSU on the academic front (awarding of doctorates) https://t.co/42CrVIcip0

— Jon Wilner (@wilnerhotline) November 2, 2022

---

It should be obvious by now that SDSU is replacing USC.

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What if the P1G replaces ucla with San Diego State?

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That is a great question. I suspect that the B1G would go after Stanford instead to avoid facing a fight with the Pac before the CS Board of Trustees. No offense to SDSU, but Stanford also has a superior athletics and academics profile.

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I agree, but you will annoy the UW and UO factions with this.

Ph.Ds or not, San Diego State does not fit the academic profile that the Big Ten wants. Stanford, Oregon or Washington are much likelier candidates. Oregon and Washington very badly want to be in the Big Ten -- they would jump at an offer in a nanosecond. But of course all this assumes that UCLA falls through, which is unlikely to happen.

wifeisafurd said:

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Bobodeluxe said:

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wifeisafurd said:

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philbert said:

---

In other related news:

An important hurdle has been cleared for SDSU on the academic front (awarding of doctorates) https://t.co/42CrVIcip0

— Jon Wilner (@wilnerhotline) November 2, 2022

---

It should be obvious by now that SDSU is replacing USC.

---

What if the P1G replaces ucla with San Diego State?

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That is a great question. I suspect that the B1G would go after Stanford instead to avoid facing a fight with the Pac before the CS Board of Trustees. No offense to SDSU, but Stanford also has a superior athletics and academics profile.

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Is there any chance Furd goes to B1G with just USC? Seems inconceivable to me but I could be wrong.

eastcoastcal said:

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calumnus said:

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eastcoastcal said:

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Golden One said:

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eastcoastcal said:

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Question for everyone here-

What amount of money would be an appropriate amount to receive if the regents decide to go with the payment option. What I mean is, what figure should we be satisfied with? 10M payout is nothing. 500M and it's the greatest day ever. Point is, there's a spectrum and what's the threshold where we look at it and are happy with our payout as compensation?

---

Enough money to pay the buyouts for Knowlton, Wilcox, and Fox. That would enable the rejuvenation of Cal football and men's basketball.

---

Wilcox: 25M (after this year)
Fox: 3.5 M (after this year)
Knowlton ~8M (?) --> 6.5 base and talent + 2.1 retention. Not sure what buyout clause if but worst case 100%

So roughly a 35M infusion should do the trick if this is the barometer of a successful compensation payment

*Figures used may be slightly off

---

Knowlton originally gave Fox a five year contract and then gave him a two-year extension "for COVID." This is only year four. Thus he would get close to $9 million if we fired him after this year.

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ok see I am a fair bit confused on this-- as far as I understood it, Fox's contract originally ran through '23-'24 season, and then Fox gave him a 1 year extension for COVID, meaning Fox runs through '25 now. (So after this season, two seasons left, 1.7ish buyout per year). However in the recent article about Cal basketball the author suggested that Fox was given a 2-year extension. So I am not sure what to think.

Can someone do a public records request like we did for Wilcox?

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The Write For California folks said the article that reported the 2 year extension was wrong, it is only a 1 year extension. So besides my being way off, I think you are right, two years left so about $3.6 million buyout.

I guess that's "good news" but Cal hoops is still screwed based on the everything else that's in the article.

gardenstatebear said:

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Ph.Ds or not, San Diego State does not fit the academic profile that the Big Ten wants. Stanford, Oregon or Washington are much likelier candidates. Oregon and Washington very badly want to be in the Big Ten -- they would jump at an offer in a nanosecond. But of course all this assumes that UCLA falls through, which is unlikely to happen.

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Is Oregon really better than San Diego State from an academic standpoint?

BearGoggles said:

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wifeisafurd said:

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Bobodeluxe said:

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wifeisafurd said:

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philbert said:

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In other related news:

An important hurdle has been cleared for SDSU on the academic front (awarding of doctorates) https://t.co/42CrVIcip0

— Jon Wilner (@wilnerhotline) November 2, 2022

---

It should be obvious by now that SDSU is replacing USC.

---

What if the P1G replaces ucla with San Diego State?

---

That is a great question. I suspect that the B1G would go after Stanford instead to avoid facing a fight with the Pac before the CS Board of Trustees. No offense to SDSU, but Stanford also has a superior athletics and academics profile.

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Is there any chance Furd goes to B1G with just USC? Seems inconceivable to me but I could be wrong.

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I would like to give you an intelligence response, but I have no idea. I think that they want to stay in the Pac, but if they have a lot of coin thrown at them?

A lot is at play here, and I'm extremely surprised given the timing. This needed to go down AFTER the Pac gets its media contract offers (and the commish gives the with and without UCLA dollar amounts). Maybe he already has those numbers available and has shared them? I guess after its been signed may be too late due to exit fees, but this information is crucial to what damages would be, whether UCLA may want to back out of the deal, and gives the B1G an idea of how much they'd have to offer teams to join them.

As noted there are three possible outcomes:

1) Regents say you cannot go without taking Cal. If they came down hard on this I see it far more likely that the B1G offers Cal and Stanford to join (at reduced media payouts) to make the problem go away. Oregon and Washington also likely get an invite in this scenario. I still think this is their long term goal, but there are a lot of reasons to put it off right now. This would just be accelerating their plans (and/or making the B1G commissioners plan easier to sell to the universities who make the vote).

The less likely alternative is they replace UCLA with Stanford. They are not replacing UCLA with any other school.

2) Regents say that UCLA damaged another schools income potential with the move, and forces them to pay those damages. I'm guessing the numbers would be contingent on what the Pac actually gets in their contract. If the damages are high enough it would be interesting to see UCLA ask them to instead cancel the contract (behind closed doors). If they are low enough (most likely), it will be a slap on the wrist.

3) Regents do nothing.

eastcoastcal said:

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Question for everyone here-

What amount of money would be an appropriate amount to receive if the regents decide to go with the payment option. What I mean is, what figure should we be satisfied with? 10M payout is nothing. 500M and it's the greatest day ever. Point is, there's a spectrum and what's the threshold where we look at it and are happy with our payout as compensation?

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Depends. If we look at this from a prospective media rights loss - which is arguably the only metric on which to base an "exit fee" without it being punitive, we are looking at between a 10-20% loss from UCLA's departure. So, figure between $4-7 million per year? Any deal would be between 4-6 years so - say, $16 million on low end to $35 million at the high end. That's probably negotiable but since we don't know what a new media rights deal looks like yet for the P12, hard to say.

philly1121 said:

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eastcoastcal said:

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Question for everyone here-

What amount of money would be an appropriate amount to receive if the regents decide to go with the payment option. What I mean is, what figure should we be satisfied with? 10M payout is nothing. 500M and it's the greatest day ever. Point is, there's a spectrum and what's the threshold where we look at it and are happy with our payout as compensation?

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Depends. If we look at this from a prospective media rights loss - which is arguably the only metric on which to base an "exit fee" without it being punitive, we are looking at between a 10-20% loss from UCLA's departure. So, figure between $4-7 million per year? Any deal would be between 4-6 years so - say, $16 million on low end to $35 million at the high end. That's probably negotiable but since we don't know what a new media rights deal looks like yet for the P12, hard to say.

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What about ~ $10 million/yr, in perpetuity with inflation adjustments. And if the p12 ever disbands, and Cal is left in a no-rev conference, the stadium debt rolls over to the Regents/UCOP central ledger and UCLA has to still pay $$$ to UCOP (all this is done by giving UCLA a smaller lot of funding from UC every year).

The Regents shouldn't force themselves into a constant number since all factors are going to be changing over the next 20+ years. And they are absolutely on the hook for Cal's stadium costs if there are no rev sports at Cal.

wifeisafurd said:

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BearGoggles said:

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wifeisafurd said:

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Bobodeluxe said:

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wifeisafurd said:

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philbert said:

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In other related news:

An important hurdle has been cleared for SDSU on the academic front (awarding of doctorates) https://t.co/42CrVIcip0

— Jon Wilner (@wilnerhotline) November 2, 2022

---

It should be obvious by now that SDSU is replacing USC.

---

What if the P1G replaces ucla with San Diego State?

---

That is a great question. I suspect that the B1G would go after Stanford instead to avoid facing a fight with the Pac before the CS Board of Trustees. No offense to SDSU, but Stanford also has a superior athletics and academics profile.

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Is there any chance Furd goes to B1G with just USC? Seems inconceivable to me but I could be wrong.

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I would like to give you an intelligence response, but I have no idea. I think that they want to stay in the Pac, but if they have a lot of coin thrown at them?

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You are closer to it but I just think that absent something really radical/left field Stanfurd faces a huge challenge of how to support the non-football atheletes when travel would be 2 time zones away. Even creating a 4 team "pod" feels like it creates a problem.

For example - near as I can tell the B1G mens baseball teams played about 23 games last year. Furd played more than TWICE as many cause....well....west coast versus frozen Tundra. Swim and Dive are on compressed schedules (or barely fielded) by B1G teams while Furd has a robust home and away set of meets.

At this point the B1G/tOSU have essentially waved their hands at this problem. I am not sure USC cares and UCLA with its deficit was desperate for any sort of life line to put off cutting teams. But absent some sort of interconference peace treaty (which essentially has to be a B1G payment to the Pac12 that would allow entry without football) I don't see anyone else leaving (including Cal) unless it is a group for 6 so you could actually have a west coast division for non-revenue sports.

PS. I think given Christ's quotes in the Athletic this week _SHE_ would be loath to allow Cal to make that jump absent a solution. It is clear that she places a high value on non-revenues.

wifeisafurd said:

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BearGoggles said:

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wifeisafurd said:

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Bobodeluxe said:

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wifeisafurd said:

---

philbert said:

---

In other related news:

An important hurdle has been cleared for SDSU on the academic front (awarding of doctorates) https://t.co/42CrVIcip0

— Jon Wilner (@wilnerhotline) November 2, 2022

---

It should be obvious by now that SDSU is replacing USC.

---

What if the P1G replaces ucla with San Diego State?

---

That is a great question. I suspect that the B1G would go after Stanford instead to avoid facing a fight with the Pac before the CS Board of Trustees. No offense to SDSU, but Stanford also has a superior athletics and academics profile.

---

Is there any chance Furd goes to B1G with just USC? Seems inconceivable to me but I could be wrong.

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I would like to give you an intelligence response, but I have no idea. I think that they want to stay in the Pac, but if they have a lot of coin thrown at them?

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The other thing to consider is the physical distance between Washington and USC and that Washington and Oregon face the same problem as UCLA, which is a sister state college that is not being invited at this time to the B1G, and would be financially hurt by Washington or Oregon.

Socaltownie,

Is travel really going to be that big of a deal? If I am correct, we are only talking about 8 teams that are going to have to be travelling, no? apart from football, m/w tennis, m/w soccer, womens volleyball, gymnastics, softball and baseball. Its not like every athletic team UCLA has is going to be travelling to Wisconsin or Rutgers. Its only 8 of their teams apart from football and m/w basketball.

Golden One said:

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gardenstatebear said:

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Ph.Ds or not, San Diego State does not fit the academic profile that the Big Ten wants. Stanford, Oregon or Washington are much likelier candidates. Oregon and Washington very badly want to be in the Big Ten -- they would jump at an offer in a nanosecond. But of course all this assumes that UCLA falls through, which is unlikely to happen.

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Is Oregon really better than San Diego State from an academic standpoint?

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Oregon has backers that San Diego State does not.

philly1121 said:

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Socaltownie,

Is travel really going to be that big of a deal? If I am correct, we are only talking about 8 teams that are going to have to be travelling, no? apart from football, m/w tennis, m/w soccer, womens volleyball, gymnastics, softball and baseball. Its not like every athletic team UCLA has is going to be travelling to Wisconsin or Rutgers. Its only 8 of their teams apart from football and m/w basketball.

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I don;t think this is true but it is also subject to negotiations (aka will the Pac12 allow for it)

Mens and Women's Swim and Dive. At a minimum it feels like they will be competing in the B1G conference meet. Probably hold the Bruin's Dive invitational still. But they will be traveling for meets on to the B1G. Many B1G teams actually swim against SEC in the Winter to help with the weather challenges and so all the meets are not indoors.

Mens and Womens Golf. I assume this is easy. Mens and Womens golf plays largely west coast collegiant invitationals. Might have to travel to the Midwest for conference championships but that probably is a net positive rather than negative.

Track and Field (there is a side discussion about UC diversity here that we could have). Again, invitationals but mostly held at Pac12 instituations. Still TBD (right) whether UCLA is or isn't blackballed here. Again, would be traveling to the Midwest (probably ) for B1G conference meet.

Cross country - Similar challenge to T&F but maybe even more so.

Rowing - unclear. I am too lazy to even look up whether B1G offers a conference meet like the Pac12 does.

Waterpolo (M&W) - no impact as not a Pac12 sport

Mens VB - SImilar.

And then the aforementioned sports you point out above.

It is actually a pretty big impact.

Looks like I didn't look at all the sports. I didn't include:

m/w swimming/diving
m/w golf
w lacrosse
w rowing
m/w cross country
m/w track and field outdoor
w gymnastics

But in looking at some of these sports - UCLA and USC would be the new bosses of the B1G. Most of these are meet and invitational events too. The other sports compete in the Mountain Pacific Sports Federation.

philly1121 said:

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Looks like I didn't look at all the sports. I didn't include:

m/w swimming/diving
m/w golf
w lacrosse
w rowing
m/w cross country
m/w track and field outdoor
w gymnastics

But in looking at some of these sports - UCLA and USC would be the new bosses of the B1G. Most of these are meet and invitational events too. The other sports compete in the Mountain Pacific Sports Federation.

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Yes. USC and UCLA would "win". It just isn't clear to me though, for example, that UCLA and USC are going to be invited with open arms to the Oregon Track meets to "solve" a problem of their own creation. Now the flip side is that these are students/kids. Bigger hearts may prevail. But I also could easily see an AD say "they made their bed, now they sleep in it")