Hawaii Haas said:
I might eat my words (cheap Amazon might open their wallet), but here's what I believe:
- we are past Peak Cable. The Big10 contract was the Highwater mark. It is prob way over valued. And just like having a 3% assumable mortgage, the Big 10 is using this financial instrument to gut the P12 and it's working. But the market has changed for everyone else.
- just like there is the AFC and NFC for the NFL; there is only room at the top for two at most. The rest would be "G5".
- far flung conferences lead to fan apathy. Naturally the west is more spread out compared to the East. But Cal was doing itself no favors by not scheduling SJSU and Fresno St at War Memorial since 1995 because of perceived elitism. Dumb business moves in my opinion.
- when faced with this situation, the smartest move is to 1) try to get into the "NFL", 2) acknowledge the situation and "retreat to the core." The core being California, the most populous, wealthy, state in the US. If you're not cracking the top, your next aim is best of the rest. In the junior college football ranks, the California JC champion can also claim they are "national champions." At the end of this craziness, regionalization will emerge the next most rational move. But at least that region is California, which would span about half the Eastern seaboard.
- the whole notion of conference media money and equal sharing is in the past. More of a meritocracy will emerge. There will be a Universal Basic Income but to the best performers go the spoils. Maybe the base money is too good in the Big10 / SEC, so it's ok, but all the rest will have that. So expect say BYU to keep their side deal. Nothing stopping Hawaii from distributing their 9pm PST kickoff games on PPV stream to Amazon or Apple+ (except their own lack of prioritizing) - it's really there for the taking to 5,000x their distribution. I think the tier 1, 2, 3 media limitations might have to be renegotiated - and prob are in the P12 (UW wants unequal share).
- football is a brutal sport, being played more and more disproportionately by lower income kids. To dress it up with all the posh and elitism of academic superiority is an Emperor wears no clothes moment. At the end of the day, it is brutal and fought between one man vs the other. The part about academics is lost to me.
There is a chance that the Big 10 has a 6 team pod on the west coast. But other than that, G5. Big 12 is still G5 even with the Corner Schools.
We will see.
JMO but I see the B1G as the destination. That is where UW and UO along with Cal and Stanford want to end up. The Big 12 is a soft landing spot for ASU, UA, Utah and Colorado. Those 4 schools as of today are not likely to be pursued by the B1G. Cal and Stanford may not be in that equation either today. But need a home conference and hope for further realignment down the road.
Fresno St., SJSU and others in the current MWC (G5) add nothing to the P12. The P12 is in limbo. Some members want to be invited to the B1G. They will stay only if they have to. For now anyway.
So I agree in some measure that outside of the B1G and SEC the other conferences take on lesser value. The remaining P5 conferences (P12, Big 12 and ACC) sit in that uncomfortable place between the rich and the poor. Some will rise and some will fall. If you can get to the B1G now you must. Working towards that end is crucial. There may have to be some "bridge" deal to hold the P12 together til the next expansion.
The academic argument is a bit hard to comprehend, but school presidents still want to tout those things. If even for window dressing. I agree some meritocracy is likely to emerge. Even now there is talk about unequal sharing for the P12. Not sure how real that talk is. But the ACC has some programs (FSU, Clemson, UNC, Miami) that want that discussion now. The Big 12 has no programs anymore that either the SEC or B1G want. UT and Oklahoma have left already. They were the USC and UCLA of the Big 12.
There are discussions even now about a Super Conference outside NCAA jurisdiction. A coalition of football programs that have their own rules and a seperate made for TV CFP. That CFP likely goes to 16 and would exclude G5 teams. It expands to 12 soon but 16 I believe is the ultimate number. This coalition of teams could effectively forever make G5 football like FCS football. No longer would you play against G5 teams even in OOC. The new coalition would keep all the TV money and could possibly include NCAA basketball as well. It is not a coincidence that programs like Gonzaga are looking to make a jump. We have seen reports that the Big 12 is looking at some Big East programs like Villanova and UConn as the future lies in consolidation not in having over 130 D1 football teams and over 300 D1 hoops teams. We love the Cinderella stories in the hoops tourney but the big boy programs do not want to share to wealth.
This is why IMO the P12 is having such a hard time finding a TV deal. Different schools have different end games. Not every school will end up in the B1G. Can UW and UO get there now? IMO that is the real holdup. if they can they likely will. Does Cal and Stanford have a shot at a B1G invite now? Who knows. If the B1G is truly done for now the P12 likely finds a deal. if they are not done I think the P12 is really on shaky ground.
I agree there is a bigger seperation coming. Maybe a few years off yet, but coming. These schools see it and are now looking out for themselves. If they can find a deal that keeps them together while looking forward to the next alignment that is great. If the B1G wants or will take UO and UW now all bets are off IMO.
The B1G is the destination. That is where the rich will live. That is the safe gated community that is insulated from all the other stuff. The G5 will be the poor. The 3 other P5 conferences will be the middle class. Who from that group can gain entry into the country club of the current P2 is what really matters in the end.