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The Official Nov 2026 Elections thread

26,505 Views | 502 Replies | Last: 3 hrs ago by sycasey
concordtom
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With all due respect, that other thread title sucked, so I'm hoping we can switch to this thread for the next month.

For starters, I give you this:

https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-election/

The consensus of polls for the Senate is for 5 states to be contested:
Ohio
Texas
Iowa
Maine
Alaska

Kalshi has Dems winning all but Iowa, and ending up with control of the Senate, 52-48.
dajo9
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concordtom said:

With all due respect, that other thread title sucked, so I'm hoping we can switch to this thread for the next month.

For starters, I give you this:

https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-election/

The consensus of polls for the Senate is for 5 states to be contested:
Ohio
Texas
Iowa
Maine
Alaska

Kalshi has Dems winning all but Iowa, and ending up with control of the Senate, 52-48.


OK, but this isnt really the start. A year ago, of the states you mentioned only Maine would have been considered in play. This "starting point" is already a massive win for Dems because of what was considered 2 years ago to be a massively unfavorable scenario for Dems. A year ago the Senate was not considered in play for Dems.
concordtom
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There will be various Elections topics.
I just meant let's start this thread with the current state of play in the senate.

I agree, this is great news.
Trump has 1 month to go and he's continuing to mess things up.
concordtom
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Quote:

VANDALIA, Ohio - President Donald Trump rallied Saturday for Republicans in Ohio's competitive races for Senate and governor, predicting that the party will defy expectations in a choppy midterm election climate.

"I think we're going to have a big surprise, because they don't know what's happening,"
Trump said while speaking onstage inside a high school gymnasium near Dayton.

"Just get out and vote," Trump added. "If you do that, we're going to win, and we're going to win big. And we're going to shove it up their ass."


We don't know what's happening?
Could CHEATING be a part of that?


BearlySane88
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Election denying is blasphemous according to democrats
Aunburdened
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BearlySane88 said:

Election denying is blasphemous according to democrats

Voter fraud hardly ever happens. Also Trump has cheated in every election.
Aun "unburdened by what has been" Bear is the OG legend
- DaddyLegend 9/6/2026
concordtom
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Article on senate - blue wave perspective:


In the Senate, Republicans hold a 53-47 majority and were favored to keep control earlier this year.

Now, most polls put Democrats ahead in the most contested races: Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio and Texas. They're more strongly favored to win North Carolina, where former governor Roy Cooper (D) leads former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley, and Georgia, where Rep. Mike Collins (R) hasn't come close to catching Sen. Jon Ossoff (D). On Friday, the main Republican Senate super PAC canceled its remaining spending in North Carolina.

Beyond the battlegrounds, Republicans have shown concern about incumbents in Kansas, which hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, and Nebraska, which Trump won by 20 points in 2024. Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kansas), an obstetrician, is under fire for his history of suing patients to collect unpaid bills, leading to some arrests. He faces megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton (D). Nebraska independent Dan Osborn has been slamming Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) for pardoning a man convicted of sexual assault when he was governor.


In the most extreme scenario, some political professionals imagine the wave wiping out Sen. Darline Graham (R-South Carolina) or Sen. Ashley Moody (R-Florida).
DiabloWags
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LOL!

Cults don't end well. Think Jonestown.


concordtom
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Cook political report has made the following updates:

Kansas from Lean Republican to Toss Up.
New Hampshire from Toss Up to Lean Democrat.
North Carolina from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat.
They may get 6 pickups. They need 4.

Separately:
Center for Politics has Alaska moving to Lean Democrat.
SC from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.
concordtom
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Campaign finance reform thoughts

It's sad that every time analysts talk about these races they talk about money. How much is strategically being deployed in which states depending on the need.

It highlights that marketing money buys votes. Why Citizens United is no good. Special interest, dark money….

Are voters being properly informed when billions of partisan dollars are steering them? That's an open question all citizens of democracies should be asking themselves.

I don't have a solution, but we definitely need something different.

Now, round up the usual suspects to complain that something generically called "Main Street Mass Media" (or whatever their derogatory term is) is too liberal and doesn't properly inform, either.

Because of that, we get to the Equal Time law that was abolished some years ago.

Since I'm not interested in those rants, I'll instead see if AI slop has anything interest to say.


Quote:

You're putting your finger on a tension that has been sitting at the heart of modern democracy for a long time.

When political analysts discuss elections, they often sound like military logisticians: who is spending what, where, and when. The implication, intentional or not, is that voters are a market to be influenced rather than citizens to be persuaded. That naturally raises the uncomfortable question: if money were not so powerful, why would campaigns, PACs, parties, corporations, unions, and wealthy donors spend billions trying to shape perceptions?

At the same time, I think it's worth being careful not to conclude that "money buys votes" in a simple one-to-one sense. Money buys exposure, repetition, targeting, organization, voter registration efforts, field operations, research, and advertising. Sometimes those efforts change minds. Sometimes they simply reinforce opinions people already hold. Plenty of heavily funded candidates have lost. But it's hard to argue that money does not buy influence.

Your point about voter information is especially interesting. Democracy assumes citizens can make informed choices. Yet today's information environment is fragmented. Citizens receive messages not only from campaigns but also from advocacy groups, influencers, partisan media, social media algorithms, political action committees, and organizations whose funding sources may be opaque. Even when disclosures exist, most people don't have the time to track who is financing every message they encounter.

The criticism from different ideological directions tends to converge on the same concern. One group says mainstream media is biased. Another says partisan media is biased. Another points to social media algorithms. Another points to wealthy donors. Everyone agrees some information sources are distorting reality; they just disagree on which ones.

That brings us to the old Fairness Doctrine, which is probably what you're referring to rather than equal-time rules. The Fairness Doctrine required broadcast license holders to devote attention to controversial public issues and present contrasting viewpoints. The FCC eliminated it in 1987. The Equal Time Rule still exists in a narrower form, requiring comparable opportunities for legally qualified political candidates in certain circumstances, but it is not the broad viewpoint-balancing policy that the Fairness Doctrine was.

The challenge is that restoring something like the Fairness Doctrine today would be much harder than it was when a handful of broadcasters dominated public discourse. In the 1970s, regulating a few television and radio stations affected much of what the public saw. Today, information flows through thousands of cable channels, websites, podcasts, streaming platforms, newsletters, and social media accounts. Even if one wanted more balanced presentation, implementing it raises difficult free speech and practical questions.

What I find compelling in your observation is that people often argue about media bias and campaign spending separately, when they may be parts of the same larger issue:

> How can a democratic society ensure citizens receive enough trustworthy information to govern themselves, while preserving freedom of speech and political participation?

We don't seem to have found a satisfactory answer yet. The current system leaves many people feeling that information is being purchased, curated, amplified, and targeted by powerful interests, while older regulatory frameworks seem ill-suited to the digital age. That's a legitimate concern regardless of whether one is on the left, right, or somewhere in between.

Your comment that "we definitely need something different" is probably where many citizens end up. The disagreement is not so much about whether influence exists, but about which reforms would improve things without creating a different set of problems.



What solutions have been proposed?

Quote:

A surprising number of proposals have been floated across the political spectrum. The challenge is that every solution tends to solve one problem while creating another.

### 1. Full transparency of political spending
This is probably the most broadly supported reform.

The idea:
- Require disclosure of the true sources of political spending.
- Make it harder for "dark money" groups to hide donors behind layers of nonprofits.
- Improve public databases so voters can easily see who is funding ads.

The reasoning is that if unlimited spending is protected speech, voters should at least know who is speaking. The proposed federal DISCLOSE Act has been one of the most frequently discussed approaches.
**Strengths**
- Preserves free speech.
- Gives voters more information.

**Weaknesses**
- Doesn't reduce spending itself.
- Many voters never check disclosures.

---

### 2. Public financing of campaigns
Instead of candidates relying heavily on wealthy donors, government matching funds help candidates compete.

Examples include:
- Small-donor matching systems.
- Democracy vouchers.
- Grants for qualifying candidates.

Supporters argue this shifts candidates' attention from large donors toward ordinary voters. Public financing systems in places like New York City are often cited as models.
**Strengths**
- Encourages broader participation.
- Reduces dependence on large donors.

**Weaknesses**
- Taxpayer funded.
- Outside groups can still spend independently.

---

### 3. Constitutional amendment overturning Citizens United
Many critics want a constitutional amendment clarifying that money is not speech, or that governments may impose stronger limits on election spending.

The goal would be to reverse the legal framework established by *Citizens United* and related decisions.
**Strengths**
- Addresses the root legal issue.

**Weaknesses**
- Constitutional amendments are extremely difficult to pass.

---

### 4. Stricter coordination rules
Current law says super PACs and campaigns cannot coordinate, but critics argue the line is often blurry.

Reformers propose:
- Tighter definitions of coordination.
- Stronger enforcement.
- Limits on shared consultants and strategic information.

Groups advocating campaign finance reform frequently emphasize this approach.
**Strengths**
- Targets potential loopholes.

**Weaknesses**
- Difficult to prove coordination.

---

### 5. Media reform and a modern Fairness Doctrine
This connects directly to your point.

Some have proposed:
- Reviving a version of the Fairness Doctrine.
- Requiring large platforms to offer viewpoint diversity.
- Transparency requirements for recommendation algorithms.

The original Fairness Doctrine required broadcasters to present contrasting views on important public issues. It was abolished by the FCC in 1987.
**Strengths**
- Could expose people to competing perspectives.

**Weaknesses**
- Raises major First Amendment concerns.
- Hard to apply in a world of podcasts, YouTube channels, and social media.

---

### 6. Equal-time expansion
The Equal Opportunities or "Equal Time" rule still exists for certain broadcast situations involving candidates, although it is much narrower than the old Fairness Doctrine.
Some people propose:
- Expanding it.
- Applying it more broadly.
- Extending similar concepts to digital platforms.

**Strengths**
- Seeks balance among candidates.

**Weaknesses**
- Doesn't address issue advocacy or dark-money spending.
- Difficult to implement online.

---

### 7. Free airtime for candidates
An old but interesting proposal.

Instead of spending billions on ads:
- Broadcasters would provide free debate time.
- Candidates would receive guaranteed public airtime.
- Campaigns would rely less on fundraising.

**Strengths**
- Reduces the arms race for TV ads.

**Weaknesses**
- Hard to design fairly.
- Less relevant in an era increasingly dominated by digital media.

---

### 8. Media literacy rather than regulation
This is the least coercive approach.

The idea:
- Teach citizens how advertising works.
- Identify sponsored content.
- Understand algorithmic amplification.
- Evaluate sources critically.

In other words, instead of regulating speakers more heavily, strengthen the audience.

**Strengths**
- Compatible with free speech.
- Useful regardless of political viewpoint.

**Weaknesses**
- Effects are gradual.
- Doesn't directly reduce the influence of money.

---

What's fascinating is that reforms tend to cluster around two very different diagnoses:

1. **The problem is too much money in politics.**
- Public financing
- Spending limits
- Constitutional amendments
- Coordination rules

2. **The problem is poor information.**
- Fairness Doctrine revival
- Equal-time expansion
- Transparency
- Media literacy

Your original comment actually combines both diagnoses. You seem concerned not only that money is being spent, but that the spending influences what citizens know and believe. That is exactly where campaign-finance reform and media reform begin to overlap, and where the debate becomes much harder.
Aunburdened
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concordtom said:

Since I'm not interested in those rants, I'll instead see if AI slop has anything interest to say.

(AI Slop deleted)

My response to your AI Slop





Aun "unburdened by what has been" Bear is the OG legend
- DaddyLegend 9/6/2026
dajo9
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This article is paywalled but you can see enough to see Cook Political Report is estimating a Dem Senate pickup of 2 - 6 seats. A year ago the Dems winning 2 seats was considered best case scenario so now, the floor, according to Cook, is a Dem win.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/senate-overview/senate-majority-squarely-democrats-sights-kansas-moves-toss-two
concordtom
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Remember when Adam Schiff predicted that Trump would continue to try and cheat in the election until he succeeds?

This was from his Closing Arguments of Impeachment Trial #1.




And so it can be no surprise that TRUMP IS EXPLICITLY TELLING US THAT HE IS GOING TO CHEAT!!




at the Republican midterm convention in Dallas on September 10, 2026:

Trump had the audience raise their right hands and repeat a pledge after him. The relevant portion was:

"I don't care if I'm registered or not. I'm going to try and cheat like hell like they do."

The sequence is particularly striking because immediately beforehand he was talking about voter ID, proof of citizenship, and what he characterized as Democrats wanting to cheat, and then he had his own audience repeat a line about voting even if they weren't registered and "cheat[ing] like hell."

He subsequently had them finish the pledge with:

"We swear that on November 3rd, we are going to go out and vote."

He then joked that they could vote Democrat, followed by "I don't think there's one person in this room that's going to vote Democrat," and told them to vote Republican.
DiabloWags
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This is interesting.







Trump interrupted by protesters as he fights to rally Texas voters behind Paxton in US Senate race
Cults don't end well. Think Jonestown.


ChudBear
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DiabloWags said:

This is interesting.


It is not.
Abbott Laboratories donated $500,000 to the Trump-Vance Inaugural Committee

Gold Curse is undefeated

#KoolaidGang #DWcallsDTdaddy
dajo9
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53% of adults support expanding the Supreme Court. 89% support enforcing a strict ethics code. The American people know this Supreme Court is corrupt and does not represent the people.

https://bsky.app/profile/jaywillis.net/post/3mxfojcde622d
concordtom
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DiabloWags said:

This is interesting.







Trump interrupted by protesters as he fights to rally Texas voters behind Paxton in US Senate race



What's interesting is that Trump hasn't yet licensed the secret service to "punish" protesters like how the SS would be doing.
Prediction: coming soon.
concordtom
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Cook political report


Projected Seat Range: Analysis released on October 9, 2026 by U.S. House Editor Erin Covey projects that Democrats will secure between 224 and 234 seats.
Net Seat Gained: The nonpartisan publication projects that Democrats will pick up between 9 and 19 seats, which is more than enough to flip the narrow Republican majority.
Rating Breakdown: The core baseline of seats leaning or locked for the party includes:
Solid Democrat: 185 seats
Likely Democrat: 16 seats
Lean Democrat: 12 seats
Toss Up: 21 seats remain highly competitive, and Democrats only need to win 20% of them to secure a clear majority.
BearlySane88
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concordtom said:

Cook political report


Projected Seat Range: Analysis released on October 9, 2026 by U.S. House Editor Erin Covey projects that Democrats will secure between 224 and 234 seats.
Net Seat Gained: The nonpartisan publication projects that Democrats will pick up between 9 and 19 seats, which is more than enough to flip the narrow Republican majority.
Rating Breakdown: The core baseline of seats leaning or locked for the party includes:
Solid Democrat: 185 seats
Likely Democrat: 16 seats
Lean Democrat: 12 seats
Toss Up: 21 seats remain highly competitive, and Democrats only need to win 20% of them to secure a clear majority.


Dems picking up only 9-19 seats would be an absolute disaster for them. That is no blue wave.
dajo9
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BearlySane88 said:

concordtom said:

Cook political report


Projected Seat Range: Analysis released on October 9, 2026 by U.S. House Editor Erin Covey projects that Democrats will secure between 224 and 234 seats.
Net Seat Gained: The nonpartisan publication projects that Democrats will pick up between 9 and 19 seats, which is more than enough to flip the narrow Republican majority.
Rating Breakdown: The core baseline of seats leaning or locked for the party includes:
Solid Democrat: 185 seats
Likely Democrat: 16 seats
Lean Democrat: 12 seats
Toss Up: 21 seats remain highly competitive, and Democrats only need to win 20% of them to secure a clear majority.


Dems picking up only 9-19 seats would be an absolute disaster for them. That is no blue wave.

One thing we know is the right and corporate media will set the bar high enough for Dems before the election so as to declare they lost after the election. There are very few House seats that are competitive these days because of extreme gerrymandering and extreme polarization in the electorate. A shift of the size expected by Cook is a definite win for the Dems. Winning any number of seats in the Senate was unexpected a year ago and would represent a smashing success for the Dems.

We should all support tripling the size of the House of Representatives to return the House to the people and take it away from the political class. That would only take an act of Congress as the current size is outdated by 100 years and needs updating.
BearlySane88
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dajo9 said:

BearlySane88 said:

concordtom said:

Cook political report


Projected Seat Range: Analysis released on October 9, 2026 by U.S. House Editor Erin Covey projects that Democrats will secure between 224 and 234 seats.
Net Seat Gained: The nonpartisan publication projects that Democrats will pick up between 9 and 19 seats, which is more than enough to flip the narrow Republican majority.
Rating Breakdown: The core baseline of seats leaning or locked for the party includes:
Solid Democrat: 185 seats
Likely Democrat: 16 seats
Lean Democrat: 12 seats
Toss Up: 21 seats remain highly competitive, and Democrats only need to win 20% of them to secure a clear majority.


Dems picking up only 9-19 seats would be an absolute disaster for them. That is no blue wave.

One thing we know is the right and corporate media will set the bar high enough for Dems before the election so as to declare they lost after the election. There are very few House seats that are competitive these days because of extreme gerrymandering and extreme polarization in the electorate. A shift of the size expected by Cook is a definite win for the Dems. Winning any number of seats in the Senate was unexpected a year ago and would represent a smashing success for the Dems.

We should all support tripling the size of the House of Representatives to return the House to the people and take it away from the political class. That would only take an act of Congress as the current size is outdated by 100 years and needs updating.


9-19 seats would absolutely be an underperformance based on how bad dems says republicans and Trump are doing. The average pick up at midterms for a party going against a president with an approval rating under 50 is around 35 seats. 9-19 would be at best, half of that average. Thats a terrible turn out for the party "saving America". If dems don't win the house and senate, they have completely failed in proving their one decade long talking point
Anarchistbear
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Trump's been the best thing to happen to the Democrats. Won them the House, then the presidency with Biden; now the House and Senate.
BearlySane88
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Anarchistbear said:

Trump's been the best thing to happen to the Democrats. Won them the House, then the presidency with Biden; now the House and Senate.


They did so poorly with the presidency that they gave it right back to Trump
Anarchistbear
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BearlySane88 said:

Anarchistbear said:

Trump's been the best thing to happen to the Democrats. Won them the House, then the presidency with Biden; now the House and Senate.


They did so poorly with the presidency that they gave it right back to Trump


And they will do it again because their role is to be a buffer between the Republican and any change.
tequila4kapp
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DiabloWags said:

LOL!


"The polls" collectively have been absolute garbage for many election cycles now. They are largely useless.

Rs have made big gains in registrations. Early voting numbers are not showing a big blue wave. However, history tells a big lesson about midterms - I believe there are only 2 exceptions.

The cartoon actually is most telling. Trump is in SC and Vance was in Texas. I received a flyer in the mail from the D senate candidate. On the ground stuff tells us who's on offense and who's on defense. That matters.
DiabloWags
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Gas and Diesel prices going thru the ROOF will not be kind to Republicans come election day.

Fuel prices matter.
dajo9
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BearlySane88 said:

dajo9 said:

BearlySane88 said:

concordtom said:

Cook political report


Projected Seat Range: Analysis released on October 9, 2026 by U.S. House Editor Erin Covey projects that Democrats will secure between 224 and 234 seats.
Net Seat Gained: The nonpartisan publication projects that Democrats will pick up between 9 and 19 seats, which is more than enough to flip the narrow Republican majority.
Rating Breakdown: The core baseline of seats leaning or locked for the party includes:
Solid Democrat: 185 seats
Likely Democrat: 16 seats
Lean Democrat: 12 seats
Toss Up: 21 seats remain highly competitive, and Democrats only need to win 20% of them to secure a clear majority.


Dems picking up only 9-19 seats would be an absolute disaster for them. That is no blue wave.

One thing we know is the right and corporate media will set the bar high enough for Dems before the election so as to declare they lost after the election. There are very few House seats that are competitive these days because of extreme gerrymandering and extreme polarization in the electorate. A shift of the size expected by Cook is a definite win for the Dems. Winning any number of seats in the Senate was unexpected a year ago and would represent a smashing success for the Dems.

We should all support tripling the size of the House of Representatives to return the House to the people and take it away from the political class. That would only take an act of Congress as the current size is outdated by 100 years and needs updating.


9-19 seats would absolutely be an underperformance based on how bad dems says republicans and Trump are doing. The average pick up at midterms for a party going against a president with an approval rating under 50 is around 35 seats. 9-19 would be at best, half of that average. Thats a terrible turn out for the party "saving America". If dems don't win the house and senate, they have completely failed in proving their one decade long talking point

Historical patterns have to be modified for the fact that technology has made gerrymandering possible on an extreme scale. Do you agree we need to expand the House to bring that body back to the people?
DiabloWags
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tequila4kapp said:

DiabloWags said:

LOL!


"The polls" collectively have been absolute garbage for many election cycles now. They are largely useless.

The cartoon actually is most telling. Trump is in SC and Vance was in Texas. I received a flyer in the mail from the D senate candidate. On the ground stuff tells us who's on offense and who's on defense. That matters.


Credibility matters.
Trump has none.

Think these rallies are packed?

Think independents are still showing up and supporting him and the party? You think Trump running around the country and LYING about his record is impressive offense?

You think the GOP will retain control of both houses?
Is that your bet?



tequila4kapp
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TDS + completely misreading what I said.
DiabloWags
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tequila4kapp said:

TDS + completely misreading what I said.


Good luck in November.
tequila4kapp
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DiabloWags said:

tequila4kapp said:

TDS + completely misreading what I said.


Good luck in November.


I'm not running. Aside from wanting crazy DSA types to never win and to have zero impact or influence I mostly don't care.
DiabloWags
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tequila4kapp said:

DiabloWags said:

tequila4kapp said:

TDS + completely misreading what I said.


Good luck in November.


I'm not running. Aside from wanting crazy DSA types to never win and to have zero impact or influence I mostly don't care.


I found your "TDS" remark in your previous post telling. Especially since my comments were reasonably based and made in good faith.

Never mind that GOP strategists arent acting like the Polls are complete "garbage" as you claim.

You also couldn't answer a simple question about the GOP retaining control of Congress.

Strange.

calpoly
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DiabloWags said:

tequila4kapp said:

DiabloWags said:

tequila4kapp said:

TDS + completely misreading what I said.


Good luck in November.


I'm not running. Aside from wanting crazy DSA types to never win and to have zero impact or influence I mostly don't care.


I found your "TDS" remark in your previous post telling. Especially since my comments were reasonably based and made in good faith.

Never mind that GOP strategists arent acting like the Polls are complete "garbage" as you claim.

You also couldn't answer a simple question about the GOP retaining control of Congress.

Strange.



Our moderator is a trump supporter if you have not noticed.
smh
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calpoly said:

Our moderator is a trump supporter if you have not noticed.

huh, din't notice (alot these days), interesting if true
signed, hoping to stream today's cal football game, iff the creek don't rise
# merrily merrily.. .. life is but a dream.
bearister
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TDS=Tacit admission that a criticism of Trump is dead accurate



*As the Trump Administration missteps increase in frequency and severity, TDS becomes an increasingly pathetic defense.
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