Oakland's bishop blesses Trump, upsetting his flock https://oaklandside.org/2026/10/30/oakland-catholic-bishop-michael-barber-blesses-trump-protest/

I would have approved of these priests "visiting" Trump in the Oval….and televising it:

DiabloWags said:

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Oakbear said:

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DiabloWags said:

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Oakbear said:

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why only cpncentrate on trump when all the pols lie,. are you just part of the demo socialist cult??

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Who said anything about Polls?
I sure didn't.

And neither did you.
The topic and your post was about election time and politicians telling lies.

PS. The only "cult" that I am a part of is the cult of good reading comprehension.

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reading comprehension not a talent for you , I wrote POLS not POLLS .. anyone with half a brain knows that Pols is short for politicians

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Sorry to have disappointed you.
I must not have half a brain then, according to you.

Speaking of having a talent, I do know how to make money.
Lots of MONEY.

Have a nice day!

https://bearinsider.com/forums/6/topics/134581/replies/2769544

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Your posting style all wrapped into one post.

I'm surprised our Kalshi expert Daddy Legend hasn't posted this:

Polymarket





2026 Midterm Election Odds & Predictions | Polymarket

> polymarket

there's an idea there somewhere

I've seen you criticize many posts for using prediction markets. Hypocritical once again.

We all know prediction markets follow the money and that means it has a high chance of being manipulated.

The Trumps are so filthy greedy that if they ever prove Trump associates bet heavy on the proposition that the Republicans will prevail in the midterms and the Republicans do win the midterms, then there can be no greater proof that they rigged the elections.

BearlySane88 said:

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I've seen you criticize many posts for using prediction markets. Hypocritical once again.

We all know prediction markets follow the money and that means it has a high chance of being manipulated.

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Wow, an election is being manipulated for the benefit of a prediction market.

Who knew???

DiabloWags said:

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BearlySane88 said:

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I've seen you criticize many posts for using prediction markets. Hypocritical once again.

We all know prediction markets follow the money and that means it has a high chance of being manipulated.

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Wow, an election is being manipulated for the benefit of a prediction market.

Who knew???

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And yet you posted three or four things from prediction markets today like they were telling us something important.

Funny that people would believe prediction markets are easily manipulated and can actually INFLUENCE an election.

I dont know how some people get out of bed in the morning with so many "boogey" men out there.

So many conspiracy theories.
So little time.

Lmfao.

DiabloWags said:

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Funny that people would believe prediction markets are easily manipulated and can actually INFLUENCE an election.

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Prediction markets can be manipulated lmao, that's literally how they work. They fluctuate with the level of money invested. This is one of your best posts but not because it makes you look good.

Stick to posting MAGA repeatedly, at least then people know you're just a troll. Cue your post bragging about some thread you created or how important you are here.

Prediction markets can be manipulated, but most of the polling aggregators (Nate Silver, etc.) also give Dems about a 70% chance of winning the Senate this cycle, which would have seemed nuts just a year ago given which states were on the ballot.

Obviously the polls could be wrong (it would only take a systematic error similar to the one Trump beat Hillary Clinton with), but the majority of advance indicators seem to be pointing that way.

sycasey said:

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Prediction markets can be manipulated, but most of the polling aggregators (Nate Silver, etc.) also give Dems about a 70% chance of winning the Senate this cycle, which would have seemed nuts just a year ago given which states were on the ballot.

Obviously the polls could be wrong (it would only take a systematic error similar to the one Trump beat Hillary Clinton with), but the majority of advance indicators seem to be pointing that way.

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Hmm, actually given this last round of Siena polls it looks like Silver's aggregate now adds up to about an 80% chance of Dems taking the Senate. So that would require a bigger polling miss than 2016 for Dems to lose.

NEWS: The last Senate polls of 2026 from NYT/Siena:

From me and @RuthIgielnik https://t.co/inA3u2Urv9 pic.twitter.com/vXlfPOKes1

— Shane Goldmacher (@ShaneGoldmacher) November 2, 2026

Blogged about NYT/Siena.

I think we've "crossed the threshold." Polls project that Dems will win the Senate. They might be wrong, but that's what they project. No hiding from it tbh. pic.twitter.com/TAn71UVSc1

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 2, 2026

Again, 80% is not 100% so it's still possible the polls are way off. But any honest look at the leading public indicators has to make you think that both houses are likely flipping.

From that NYT poll

"This cycle, Democrats are once again responding to Times/Siena polls at a much higher rate than Republicans. Across these final battleground polls, registered white Democrats were about 30 percent likelier to take the poll than registered white Republicans. That's actually a bit higher than in the final polls in 2020."

I've already said I think dems take the house as is normal in a midterm election. Beyond that, I'm skeptical.

BearlySane88 said:

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From that NYT poll

"This cycle, Democrats are once again responding to Times/Siena polls at a much higher rate than Republicans. Across these final battleground polls, registered white Democrats were about 30 percent likelier to take the poll than registered white Republicans. That's actually a bit higher than in the final polls in 2020."

I've already said I think dems take the house as is normal in a midterm election. Beyond that, I'm skeptical.

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That's a way the polls could be wrong, though the NYT and others say they attempt to correct for that.

But on the other hand, sometimes if a person isn't responding to polls it also means they won't show up to vote. In the recent past there has been GOP overperformance when Trump is on the ballot . . . but he won't be this year.

sycasey said:

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BearlySane88 said:

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From that NYT poll

"This cycle, Democrats are once again responding to Times/Siena polls at a much higher rate than Republicans. Across these final battleground polls, registered white Democrats were about 30 percent likelier to take the poll than registered white Republicans. That's actually a bit higher than in the final polls in 2020."

I've already said I think dems take the house as is normal in a midterm election. Beyond that, I'm skeptical.

---

That's a way the polls could be wrong, though the NYT and others say they attempt to correct for that.

But on the other hand, sometimes if a person isn't responding to polls it also means they won't show up to vote. In the recent past there has been GOP overperformance when Trump is on the ballot . . . but he won't be this year.

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GOP has been under represented in polls for years. Let's remember that NYT gave Hillary a +90% chance of winning the election. This is nothing new for polling. How big the error is the more important question for this cycle.

BearlySane88 said:

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sycasey said:

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BearlySane88 said:

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From that NYT poll

"This cycle, Democrats are once again responding to Times/Siena polls at a much higher rate than Republicans. Across these final battleground polls, registered white Democrats were about 30 percent likelier to take the poll than registered white Republicans. That's actually a bit higher than in the final polls in 2020."

I've already said I think dems take the house as is normal in a midterm election. Beyond that, I'm skeptical.

---

That's a way the polls could be wrong, though the NYT and others say they attempt to correct for that.

But on the other hand, sometimes if a person isn't responding to polls it also means they won't show up to vote. In the recent past there has been GOP overperformance when Trump is on the ballot . . . but he won't be this year.

---

GOP has been under represented in polls for years.

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Not in midterms really. Maybe in certain states/races, but not overall. As I noted, they have mostly been underrated when Trump is on the ballot. Dems had something similar when Obama was running. It didn't help him in midterms.

sycasey said:

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BearlySane88 said:

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sycasey said:

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BearlySane88 said:

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From that NYT poll

"This cycle, Democrats are once again responding to Times/Siena polls at a much higher rate than Republicans. Across these final battleground polls, registered white Democrats were about 30 percent likelier to take the poll than registered white Republicans. That's actually a bit higher than in the final polls in 2020."

I've already said I think dems take the house as is normal in a midterm election. Beyond that, I'm skeptical.

---

That's a way the polls could be wrong, though the NYT and others say they attempt to correct for that.

But on the other hand, sometimes if a person isn't responding to polls it also means they won't show up to vote. In the recent past there has been GOP overperformance when Trump is on the ballot . . . but he won't be this year.

---

GOP has been under represented in polls for years.

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Not in midterms really. Maybe in certain states/races, but not overall. As I noted, they have mostly been underrated when Trump is on the ballot. Dems had something similar when Obama was running. It didn't help him in midterms.

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And people claimed Trump isn't popular.

Tomorrow will tell, I've already said I could see it going a number of different ways.

bearister said:

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Yeah, but Soros….

funk trunk (is all i got)

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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bearister said:

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Yeah, but Soros….

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Soros has been a problem for years. Elon is new money and suddenly you have issue with it.

B.D.Bear said:

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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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bearister said:

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Yeah, but Soros….

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Soros has been a problem for years. Elon is new money and suddenly you have issue with it.

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For context:

The Koch Family has been a problem for years.
$889 million pledged from 2009 - 2016.

Elon's money has DWARFED anything that Soros has ever done.
Same with the Koch Family.

Koch network - Wikipedia

Yeah, when Elon farts he calls it a "Soros."

The next question is how many people were really undecided this late in the game.

Late-decider voters are swinging Republican by 9 points, per NYT.

— Leading Report (@LeadingReport) November 2, 2026

bearister said:

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Yeah, when Elon farts he calls it a "Soros."

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Bro, it's ALL about the reflecting pool.
Nothing else.

Trump: We are giving serious thought to changing the name to the Trump reflecting pool…. I’m only kidding! pic.twitter.com/iMHrTA44r9

— Acyn (@Acyn) November 2, 2026

Trump Uses Final Pre-Midterm Speech to Ramble About Reflecting Pool

He's laser beamed focused isn't he?

Lots of polling shows a much closer race than what NYT/Siena is showing.

New - Senate poll - Ohio

🔴 Jon Husted 48.3%
🔵 Sherrod Brown 45.8%

Emerson (A) - 11/1 pic.twitter.com/LyJEPCTC7t

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 2, 2026

2026 Maine Senate Race

🔴 Susan Collins: 50.6%
🔵 Troy Jackson: 49.4%

Emerson poll pic.twitter.com/vIDLKr9tXD

— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) November 2, 2026

Maine is reporting 40% higher early ballots compared to 4 years ago

cal83dls79 said:

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Maine is reporting 40% higher early ballots compared to 4 years ago

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Go Maine! Go Voters! # stump trump

cal83dls79 said:

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Maine is reporting 40% higher early ballots compared to 4 years ago

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For context: both republican and democrat early ballots are up approximately 35% in Maine. The democrats early voting advantage is very similar to what it was in 2022.

BearlySane88 said:

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Lots of polling shows a much closer race than what NYT/Siena is showing.

New - Senate poll - Ohio

🔴 Jon Husted 48.3%
🔵 Sherrod Brown 45.8%

Emerson (A) - 11/1 pic.twitter.com/LyJEPCTC7t

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 2, 2026

2026 Maine Senate Race

🔴 Susan Collins: 50.6%
🔵 Troy Jackson: 49.4%

Emerson poll pic.twitter.com/vIDLKr9tXD

— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) November 2, 2026

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Put them all in the average, I say. The average of polls shows Dems winning the Senate. If they lose, it'll be a bigger polling miss than 2016.

bearister said:

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President Trump says he'll try to protect Elon Musk if Democrats investigate the SpaceX and Tesla CEO after tomorrow's midterm elections, Axios' Ben Berkowitz reports.

Trump also suggested preemptive pardons for staff and others around him.

In an interview for the "Pod Force One" podcast published early today, the New York Post's Miranda Devine asked Trump about rumors of Musk being investigated or having his assets seized.

Trump said: "It's talk. But if it is talk, we'll have to protect them."

Musk has spent nearly half a billion dollars opposing Democrats during this election cycle.

He also recently suggested that it would be the end of democracy if Democrats win the White House and Congress in 2028.

Trump also said that he'd consider pardons for his staff and other allies if Democrats pursue them: "I would not even think about it. I'd do it."
Axios

Biden set the precedent. Every president after will follow suit.

Vote Early, Vote Often, We (just) Did
# GO BEARS