smh said:

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Vote Early, Vote Often, We (just) Did
# GO BEARS

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Leave it to dems to preach election fraud.

BearlySane88 said:

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sycasey said:

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BearlySane88 said:

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From that NYT poll

"This cycle, Democrats are once again responding to Times/Siena polls at a much higher rate than Republicans. Across these final battleground polls, registered white Democrats were about 30 percent likelier to take the poll than registered white Republicans. That's actually a bit higher than in the final polls in 2020."

I've already said I think dems take the house as is normal in a midterm election. Beyond that, I'm skeptical.

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That's a way the polls could be wrong, though the NYT and others say they attempt to correct for that.

But on the other hand, sometimes if a person isn't responding to polls it also means they won't show up to vote. In the recent past there has been GOP overperformance when Trump is on the ballot . . . but he won't be this year.

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GOP has been under represented in polls for years. Let's remember that NYT gave Hillary a +90% chance of winning the election. This is nothing new for polling. How big the error is the more important question for this cycle.

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The GOP was not underrepresented in polls in 2018, 2022, and 2025

Official MAGA ballot drop off box

Vote Blue and Keep Voting Blue

They say in his entire life Trump never started at the blocks in any contest. Not once. Ever. That's for chumps.

bearister said:

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They say in his entire life Trump never started at the blocks in any contest. Not once. Ever. That's for chumps.

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I remember when you were funny.

SBGold said:

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Official MAGA ballot drop off box

Vote Blue and Keep Voting Blue

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Dems would be crying if the right made this joke

BearlySane88 said:

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bearister said:

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They say in his entire life Trump never started at the blocks in any contest. Not once. Ever. That's for chumps.

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I remember when you were funny.

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Trump's life long pattern of literally cheating at everything and on everybody is as funny as a heart attack.

bearister said:

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BearlySane88 said:

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bearister said:

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They say in his entire life Trump never started at the blocks in any contest. Not once. Ever. That's for chumps.

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I remember when you were funny.

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Trump's life long pattern of literally cheating at everything and on everybody is as funny as a heart attack.

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Are you denying elections? Blasphemy!

He won two presidential elections so your statement is already proven false.

https://nypost.com/2026/11/02/us-news/gop-incumbents-in-4-midterm-house-races-could-be-in-trouble-as-trumps-support-among-hispanic-voters-plummets/

The past support has cratered and I'm so here for it

VOTE BLUE AND DESTROY MAGA

AtlasIntel has tended to have a relatively Republican lean in recent years and their final polls show even bigger leads for Democrats this year (except, weirdly, Minnesota).

🇺🇸 ATLAS POLL | US MIDTERMS 2026

US SENATE

Democratic candidates lead in all 10 U.S. Senate races surveyed by AtlasIntel, with margins ranging from 2.4pp in Minnesota to 14.9pp in North Carolina.

🔵 North Carolina: Cooper +14.9pp
🔵 Maine: Jackson +9.1pp
🔵 New Hampshire:… pic.twitter.com/inA3wp167C

— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) November 3, 2026

So as I said Republicans could still surprise, but that ain't what the polls are showing.

sycasey said:

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AtlasIntel has tended to have a relatively Republican lean in recent years and their final polls show even bigger leads for Democrats this year (except, weirdly, Minnesota).

🇺🇸 ATLAS POLL | US MIDTERMS 2026

US SENATE

Democratic candidates lead in all 10 U.S. Senate races surveyed by AtlasIntel, with margins ranging from 2.4pp in Minnesota to 14.9pp in North Carolina.

🔵 North Carolina: Cooper +14.9pp
🔵 Maine: Jackson +9.1pp
🔵 New Hampshire:… pic.twitter.com/inA3wp167C

— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) November 3, 2026

So as I said Republicans could still surprise, but that ain't what the polls are showing.

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Republicans aren't answering polls anymore

Paying a heavy price, destroying our military and crushing political support.

https://nypost.com/2026/10/30/opinion/trump-never-got-voters-to-back-his-war-in-iran-now-the-gop-pays-the-price/

Only DJT would try this s&^%

VOTE BLUE AND VOTE FOR A BETTER AMERICA

sycasey said:

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AtlasIntel has tended to have a relatively Republican lean in recent years and their final polls show even bigger leads for Democrats this year (except, weirdly, Minnesota).

🇺🇸 ATLAS POLL | US MIDTERMS 2026

US SENATE

Democratic candidates lead in all 10 U.S. Senate races surveyed by AtlasIntel, with margins ranging from 2.4pp in Minnesota to 14.9pp in North Carolina.

🔵 North Carolina: Cooper +14.9pp
🔵 Maine: Jackson +9.1pp
🔵 New Hampshire:… pic.twitter.com/inA3wp167C

— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) November 3, 2026

So as I said Republicans could still surprise, but that ain't what the polls are showing.

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Like I said the other day, nothing really changes either way. Our representatives are largely all centrists with a lean one way or the other. So are our presidents. One side will celebrate tomorrow and then our politicians will go right back to doing whatever they want anyways.

I hope polling is wrong for the sheer fact that it's a bloated industry with little recourse for being wrong. Obviously I'd like the right to win too.

B.D.Bear said:

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sycasey said:

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AtlasIntel has tended to have a relatively Republican lean in recent years and their final polls show even bigger leads for Democrats this year (except, weirdly, Minnesota).

🇺🇸 ATLAS POLL | US MIDTERMS 2026

US SENATE

Democratic candidates lead in all 10 U.S. Senate races surveyed by AtlasIntel, with margins ranging from 2.4pp in Minnesota to 14.9pp in North Carolina.

🔵 North Carolina: Cooper +14.9pp
🔵 Maine: Jackson +9.1pp
🔵 New Hampshire:… pic.twitter.com/inA3wp167C

— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) November 3, 2026

So as I said Republicans could still surprise, but that ain't what the polls are showing.

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Republicans aren't answering polls anymore

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The same ones that AtlasIntel was managing to reach before?

SBGold said:

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Paying a heavy price, destroying our military and crushing political support.

https://nypost.com/2026/10/30/opinion/trump-never-got-voters-to-back-his-war-in-iran-now-the-gop-pays-the-price/

Only DJT would try this s&^%

VOTE BLUE AND VOTE FOR A BETTER AMERICA

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We are about to find out how many American's have enjoyed this "small sacrifice" to do Israel's bidding.

According to 47, its "no big deal".

Ummm... OK.

DiabloWags said:

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SBGold said:

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Paying a heavy price, destroying our military and crushing political support.

https://nypost.com/2026/10/30/opinion/trump-never-got-voters-to-back-his-war-in-iran-now-the-gop-pays-the-price/

Only DJT would try this s&^%

VOTE BLUE AND VOTE FOR A BETTER AMERICA

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We are about to find out how many American's have enjoyed this "small sacrifice" to do Israel's bidding.

According to 47, its "no big deal".

Ummm... OK.

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When did you join the blame Israel for everything crowd?

Israel has a right to exist. The Palestinians have a right to exist. The Hamas terrorists that carried out the October 7 attacks should be executed. Israel had a right to retaliate….. but the 62-1 kill ratio carried out in Gaza was violative of the Proportionality of Response Rule of the Just War Theory and was thus wrong.

The settlors in the West Bank that engage in violence against innocent
Palestinians should be tried and incarcerated.

The interests of the United States and Israel are not always aligned on the 4 corners.

Reasonable people agree with those statements.

bearister said:

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The settlors in the West Bank that engage in violence against innocent
Palestinians should be tried and incarcerated.

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My strongest opinion is that all US aid to Israel needs to end until this specific practice is actually curbed by the Israel government. It's plainly obvious that they encourage it now, effectively slow-motion ethnic cleansing under an apartheid system. If they want to do that they can do it without our money.

Gaza war was also bad but you can kind of squint and defend it as actions taken during a war that Hamas (stupidly) started. I wouldn't defend it, but you can make the argument. The West Bank stuff is indefensible and has been ongoing for a long while.

Can we just end all aid to everybody in the Middle East and get out? It is not important to us any more.

bearister said:

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Israel has a right to exist. The Palestinians have a right to exist. The Hamas terrorists that carried out the October 7 attacks should be executed. Israel had a right to retaliate….. but the 62-1 kill ratio carried out in Gaza was violative of the Proportionality of Response Rule of the Just War Theory and was thus wrong.

The settlors in the West Bank that engage in violence against innocent
Palestinians should be tried and incarcerated.

The interests of the United States and Israel are not always aligned on the 4 corners.

Reasonable people agree with those statements.

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thanks for being a voice of reason in this thread

dajo9 said:

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It is not important to us any more.

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Speak for yourself

BearlySane88 said:

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dajo9 said:

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It is not important to us any more.

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Speak for yourself

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What is in the national interest on the middle east?

dajo9 said:

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BearlySane88 said:

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dajo9 said:

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It is not important to us any more.

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Speak for yourself

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What is in the national interest on the middle east?

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Real estate development.

Yes it's "just" Guam but here's an early example of polling being very wrong. I've also done some research this morning and apparently politics in Guam are often much more about who you know and less about what party you're in. There was a dem majority in recent years that almost passed a full abortion ban. Interesting.

The pollsters told you Guam was a Democrat blowout... 57.9% for the Democrat, 35.4% for the Republican. A 22-point wipeout.

Then the people actually voted. Republican Tony Ada won 51.5 to 48.2 and flipped the governor’s mansion RED. The pollsters missed by 26 points. Stop… pic.twitter.com/IWM2B9IutJ

— Apple Lamps (@lamps_apple) November 3, 2026

Here we go

Vote Blue!

Vote properly so we are not in this situation again

Vote Blue!

BearlySane88 said:

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Yes it's "just" Guam but here's an early example of polling being very wrong. I've also done some research this morning and apparently politics in Guam are often much more about who you know and less about what party you're in. There was a dem majority in recent years that almost passed a full abortion ban. Interesting.

The pollsters told you Guam was a Democrat blowout... 57.9% for the Democrat, 35.4% for the Republican. A 22-point wipeout.

Then the people actually voted. Republican Tony Ada won 51.5 to 48.2 and flipped the governor’s mansion RED. The pollsters missed by 26 points. Stop… pic.twitter.com/IWM2B9IutJ

— Apple Lamps (@lamps_apple) November 3, 2026

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Not that Guam means anything, but in the actual Congressional race . . .

Guam Non-Voting Delegate to the U.S. House

All precincts reported:
🔵 Alicia Anne Garrido Limtiaco – 15,645 (51.0%)
🔴 James Craig Moylan – 14,983 (48.8%)
⚪ Write-in – 49 (0.2%)

— VoteHub (@VoteHub) November 3, 2026

(The Republican was the incumbent.)

sycasey said:

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BearlySane88 said:

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Yes it's "just" Guam but here's an early example of polling being very wrong. I've also done some research this morning and apparently politics in Guam are often much more about who you know and less about what party you're in. There was a dem majority in recent years that almost passed a full abortion ban. Interesting.

The pollsters told you Guam was a Democrat blowout... 57.9% for the Democrat, 35.4% for the Republican. A 22-point wipeout.

Then the people actually voted. Republican Tony Ada won 51.5 to 48.2 and flipped the governor’s mansion RED. The pollsters missed by 26 points. Stop… pic.twitter.com/IWM2B9IutJ

— Apple Lamps (@lamps_apple) November 3, 2026

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Not that Guam means anything, but in the actual Congressional race . . .

Guam Non-Voting Delegate to the U.S. House

All precincts reported:
🔵 Alicia Anne Garrido Limtiaco – 15,645 (51.0%)
🔴 James Craig Moylan – 14,983 (48.8%)
⚪ Write-in – 49 (0.2%)

— VoteHub (@VoteHub) November 3, 2026

(The Republican was the incumbent.)

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I'd argue governor is a much larger race for Guam than representative is but regardless, they won by 2%. Hardly a democratic landslide as polls predicted which was my point, not which party won

https://pasquines.us/2026/10/29/terlaje-and-limtiaco-lead-pasquines-poll-in-guams-governor-and-delegate-races/

"In the race for Guam's delegate to the United States House of Representatives, Alicia Limtiaco (D) leads Delegate James Moylan (R), 68.8% to 24.5%. Another 3.3% chose none of the above, and 3.3% were undecided."

BearlySane88 said:

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sycasey said:

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BearlySane88 said:

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Yes it's "just" Guam but here's an early example of polling being very wrong. I've also done some research this morning and apparently politics in Guam are often much more about who you know and less about what party you're in. There was a dem majority in recent years that almost passed a full abortion ban. Interesting.

The pollsters told you Guam was a Democrat blowout... 57.9% for the Democrat, 35.4% for the Republican. A 22-point wipeout.

Then the people actually voted. Republican Tony Ada won 51.5 to 48.2 and flipped the governor’s mansion RED. The pollsters missed by 26 points. Stop… pic.twitter.com/IWM2B9IutJ

— Apple Lamps (@lamps_apple) November 3, 2026

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Not that Guam means anything, but in the actual Congressional race . . .

Guam Non-Voting Delegate to the U.S. House

All precincts reported:
🔵 Alicia Anne Garrido Limtiaco – 15,645 (51.0%)
🔴 James Craig Moylan – 14,983 (48.8%)
⚪ Write-in – 49 (0.2%)

— VoteHub (@VoteHub) November 3, 2026

(The Republican was the incumbent.)

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I'd argue governor is a much larger race for Guam than representative is but regardless, they won by 2%. Hardly a democratic landslide as polls predicted which was my point, not which party won

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It's about a 7-point D swing from the last election.

Polls had it D+44

sycasey said:

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BearlySane88 said:

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Yes it's "just" Guam but here's an early example of polling being very wrong. I've also done some research this morning and apparently politics in Guam are often much more about who you know and less about what party you're in. There was a dem majority in recent years that almost passed a full abortion ban. Interesting.

The pollsters told you Guam was a Democrat blowout... 57.9% for the Democrat, 35.4% for the Republican. A 22-point wipeout.

Then the people actually voted. Republican Tony Ada won 51.5 to 48.2 and flipped the governor’s mansion RED. The pollsters missed by 26 points. Stop… pic.twitter.com/IWM2B9IutJ

— Apple Lamps (@lamps_apple) November 3, 2026

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Not that Guam means anything, but in the actual Congressional race . . .

Guam Non-Voting Delegate to the U.S. House

All precincts reported:
🔵 Alicia Anne Garrido Limtiaco – 15,645 (51.0%)
🔴 James Craig Moylan – 14,983 (48.8%)
⚪ Write-in – 49 (0.2%)

— VoteHub (@VoteHub) November 3, 2026

(The Republican was the incumbent.)

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VOTE BLUE!

BearlySane88 said:

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Polls had it D+44

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Yeah I don't know that anyone believed that or really cared about Guam polls. A 7-point swing would be in line with national polls though.

sycasey said:

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BearlySane88 said:

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Polls had it D+44

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Yeah I don't know that anyone believed that or really cared about Guam polls. A 7-point swing would be in line with national polls though.

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Lol the people who did the poll did.

BearlySane88 said:

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sycasey said:

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BearlySane88 said:

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Polls had it D+44

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Yeah I don't know that anyone believed that or really cared about Guam polls. A 7-point swing would be in line with national polls though.

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Lol the people who did the poll did.

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Who did the poll?

dajo9 said:

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BearlySane88 said:

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sycasey said:

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BearlySane88 said:

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Polls had it D+44

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Yeah I don't know that anyone believed that or really cared about Guam polls. A 7-point swing would be in line with national polls though.

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Lol the people who did the poll did.

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Who did the poll?

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It's posted in the thread