Did your friend say anything about when this invite might've been given?

He did not. I am going to meet up w/him today & will hopefully gain additional info.

I think you said it well. And until those two issues get worked out, we'll be sitting on pins & needles waiting for announcement.

Oski87 said:

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socaltownie said:

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Chabbear said:

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This is probably a silly question but will an metro area population really matter once streaming is the way to access tv? I know it did with cable by the evidence of getting Rutgers for its NY cable audience. But in the future, will it still be a overriding criteria?

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This. My understanding is that carriage fees are MUCH less important in the contract valuation than eyeballs (and population).

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You take both - both are important. It is not a one or the other. It will be decades before cord cutting is all that is left. These contracts are for the next 6 years.

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I guess what I am saying is that carriage is less as a percentage of revenue compared to ad sales which are generated off of eyeballs (share and points). And so while getting the cariage fee off adding a big market like Bay Area is NICE you really want to have eyeballs and points becasue that is where most of the top line is.

Dgoldnbaer said:

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He did not. I am going to meet up w/him today & will hopefully gain additional info.

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Awesome!! Please get as much info as possible!!!!

Of course, I do not want you to overwhelm your friend with questions... but seeing as how important this news is, if you might be able to glean any info on

when the invite was sent aka how long we've been sitting on it
do we join same year as ucla/usc?
are we going to say yes? (can't believe this is even a question i have to ask)

ESPN would have already picked this up. And, they haven't.

HateRed said:

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ESPN would have already picked this up. And, they haven't.

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The USC/UCLA thing was kept under wraps until the last minute, so something similar could be going on here. There have also been reports in more mainstream outlets about Oregon/Washington meeting with the B1G and sources saying that they are looking to add 4 more Pac-12 schools. This would fit with all of that.

Not saying this rumor is definitely true, but the lack of announcements on ESPN doesn't prove it's wrong either.

eastcoastcal said:

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Dgoldnbaer said:

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He did not. I am going to meet up w/him today & will hopefully gain additional info.

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Awesome!! Please get as much info as possible!!!!

Of course, I do not want you to overwhelm your friend with questions... but seeing as how important this news is, if you might be able to glean any info on

when the invite was sent aka how long we've been sitting on it
do we join same year as ucla/usc?
are we going to say yes? (can't believe this is even a question i have to ask)

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The Big Ten isn't going to formally invite someone unless they are assured the invitee will accept. I also don't expect the Big Ten can formally invite someone without the world knowing; these votes seems pretty public. So I am guessing this is not yet a formal invitation yet. But if the Pac-12 CFO knows, then it must be the final steps leading up to a formal invite.

If the B1G lets in more teams from the Pac-12 before $C/u lo$ angele$ ever play a game as part of that conference, they will be very unhappy unless they get a bigger portion of the pie than everyone else.

Yes, it does make perfect sense. That's why everyone is skeptical.

Dgoldnbaer said:

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I guarantee EVERYONE this is no bullsh__!! I've known the source for 62 years and as I said, he's a devout Catholic. So much so that since 1960, he's missed going to Mass less than 20 times. He even attends midweek masses. And I should have clarified - he's a devout Irish catholic. We attended parochial school for 8 years together - from '64 to '69 I took him (my dad) to Cal games. And despite his faith, he'll be rooting for the Bear's when they're in South Bend on 9/17. Again, no reason for him to tell me the news yesterday if not true.

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Wonder if he knows my sister. 71 years old, lives in Alamo, goes to Catholic church so much it hurts...me, the Sacred Heart grad, and she is a graduate of Cal.

TandemBear said:

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Strykur said:

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dimitrig said:

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sycasey said:

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Strykur said:

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golden sloth said:

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sycasey said:

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https://athlonsports.com/college-football/report-big-ten-targeting-5-major-schools-for-conference-expansion

Quote:

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The Big Ten is reportedly "targeting" five schools for expansion, including Notre Dame, Oregon, Washington and two more Pac-12 schools. Those final two programs likely include Cal and Stanford.

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There would also be an expanded College football playoff.

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It just did.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/34509443/board-managers-decide-12-team-college-football-playoff-sources-say

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This actually creates an incentive to stay in the Pac-12.

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Except for the $$$

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Yeah unless we routinely make playoff trips in a stripped-down PAC-12, better to take the money in the Big Ten even if it means we're getting beaten up a bit.

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So we're trying to jump to the Big Ten so we can have more money. Money is CRUCIAL to be competitive.
But we're switching to a conference with much harder competition, so we'll be less competitive.

Ok, got it!

And yes, I understand this is the reality of the current college football environment. But when you're chasing money for money's sake, why are you doing it? Who really benefits? Will this improve the game on the field? Will this improve the game-day experience for Cal fans? Will this improve the college football experience for Cal students? Or will the main improvement for fans really just be the spectacle/presentation piped into our homes that we can watch on our 85" screens with all our personal creature comforts? (And no inconveniences like east-side stadium temps, parking hassles and all the rest.)

Oh and the TRUE beneficiaries? Everyone feeding at the trough that is college football, mainly the head coaches, their coordinators, and the top-level execs. throughout the system. THEY are the ones to realize the big benefits of the current system.

Is that really what "student athletes" should be playing for?

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Assuming that the reports are correct, I don't think any of the key players are interested in making the sport better.

The BIG10 is doing it for the money and a large share of TV market.
Cal would be doing it to remain relevant on the national college football market.
(Remember Cal still has a huge debt for renovation of CMS to pay off)

The announcement of the 12 team playoff probably slows down conference realignment in the near future. Expansion to 12 teams happens no later than 2026.

Also, the B1G powers are not adding schools that don't increase per school revenue from the TV deal. Only school that does that currently is Notre Dame.

Does he attend St. John Vianney or St. Isidores?

Dgoldnbaer said:

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CFO of Pac12 says Cal along with stanfurd, Washington & Oregon have been invited to be members of the Big 10.

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Have been invited or the Big 10 has notified the P12 they "intend" to invite them? I think there is some heat around the idea they will be invited. The Big 10 is trying hard to get a media partner for the late window of games that 4 additional western teams would require. If they do get that partner then I think the Big 10 is likely to invite the 4 schools.

The P12 simply does not have any power to pull in the sort of media dollars it would take to keep these schools in the fold even if they take reduced shares to join. The expanded CFP playoffs will increase the payouts to the member schools. There are more meetings happening this week to seek a way for the expanded CFP to start as early as 2024 perhaps 2025. Probably nothing gets formally accomplished but the wheels are still turning.

There is a lot that goes into conference expansion and if they are going to expand they need to make the moves sooner rather than later. Scheduling is a big one. Not just because of travel but how are the pods created so that exposure and travel are as even as possible.

The Big 10 member schools will not reduce their shares to expand, but a new media partner for late window coverage, CFP money plus other monies (sponsorships) might provide enough revenue for the 4 schools to join.

At one point a TV exec opined that the 4 schools in their markets were worth approximately $180M. Divide that money by 4 and you have $45M. Allow for a couple of these games to include USC and UCLA and maybe the payout is larger.

$45M per school is bigger than what an expanded P12 will bring. The reality is that the Bay Area and Seattle are attractive markets not just to TV but also because the schools are elite and in areas the Big 10 wants to do business. They would own the west coast and that has value. The CFP also is likely to expand to 16 teams at some point. Perhaps by 2030 when the Big 10 TV contract comes due again.

I think the Big 10 wants these 4 teams. Just at their price point for now. But to be included in their portfolio going forward is a big coup for the Big 10. Gives them elite academics and regional ownership in a market that has a lot of money and provides a true coast to coast portfolio of teams and games that will be very attractive to TV. Especially in an expanded CFP world.

OT: 1,000

St.Mary's in WC.

82gradDLSdad said:

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Dgoldnbaer said:

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I guarantee EVERYONE this is no bullsh__!! I've known the source for 62 years and as I said, he's a devout Catholic. So much so that since 1960, he's missed going to Mass less than 20 times. He even attends midweek masses. And I should have clarified - he's a devout Irish catholic. We attended parochial school for 8 years together - from '64 to '69 I took him (my dad) to Cal games. And despite his faith, he'll be rooting for the Bear's when they're in South Bend on 9/17. Again, no reason for him to tell me the news yesterday if not true.

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Wonder if he knows my sister. 71 years old, lives in Alamo, goes to Catholic church so much it hurts...me, the Sacred Heart grad, and she is a graduate of Cal.

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Maybe, maybe not. My bud is '73 DLS Grad & '77 St. Mary's College grad. I too would have been DLS grad in '73 but parents said adios to one another & I ended up going to Las Lomas. All for the better!

Just met w/bud - no other info disclosed. In fact, he said Brent was talking in more of a 'anticipate what's going to happen' mindset instead of something definite. I may h ave spoken too soon on this. Maybe jumped the gun, so to speak. My apology to everyone. All is now back to expressing opinions - back to rumor land.

Dgoldnbaer said:

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Just met w/bud - no other info disclosed. In fact, he said Brent was talking in more of a 'anticipate what's going to happen' mindset instead of something definite. I may h ave spoken too soon on this. Maybe jumped the gun, so to speak. My apology to everyone. All is now back to expressing opinions - back to rumor land.

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This seems more in line with where we're at. Still, interesting that a higher officer within the Pac-12 is also expecting that those four schools will get B1G invites. Hard to see how the Pac survives if that happens.

If this rumor happens, I'm thinking WSU & OSU join the Mountain West & the Arizona schools along w/Utah & Colorado join the Big 12.

Jesus!!! This guy is playing us!!!!!!

Dgoldnbaer said:

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If this rumor happens, I'm thinking WSU & OSU join the Mountain West & the Arizona schools along w/Utah & Colorado join the Big 12.

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That's what I've been expecting the PAC-12 end game to be for the last month or so. Thanks for passing along your information. I believe you're sincere about this because I can't recall you ever posting wild and speculative info before.

Once again, the best possible outcome for the Bears.

As far as I can tell there are two major hangups to Oregon/Washington/Cal/Stanford being invited to the B1G:

1) Money. It all comes down to money. Oregon/Washington/Cal/Stanford aren't worth as much as UCLA/USC, and the current schools aren't going to take a pay cut to let these 4 schools in. That means they will have to take a smaller slice of the pie. The question then becomes how much smaller.

I'm sure the B1G schools would like to pay as little a possible (giving any extra money earned to the rest of the conference members), and Oregon/Washington/Cal/Stanford would want as much as possible (and certainly more than they'd get if they don't jump ship). This is going to come down to what the schools think they can get if they don't join the B1G, set that as a floor, and then how much more than that they think they are worth.

2) There ARE some logistics to adding 4 more teams to the B1G. If they did it to make a 6 team "Pacific Pod"...how would that work exactly? There would be 20 teams in the B1G at that point, which is not divisible by 6. 24 is, but I highly doubt the B1G expands to 24 teams unless it includes teams from the ACC/ND. Is there some other prized school I'm missing somewhere?

20 teams makes the most sense as 4 5 team divisions...which would call for a 5 team west coast pod, not 6. The next number that makes sense is 3 7 team pods, and would require the addition of one more school. Utah maybe? You could put Nebraska in the pacific "pod" and add another school in the central/north east area, but I'm unsure what school you would go after.

I actually really like the idea of 3 7 team pods, with the winner of each pod + the best second place finisher going to a 4 team "playoff" for the conference championship. That keeps the intrigue of "rankings" and what not viable, and creates more discussion / disputes which college football seems to live off of, but how does a 4 team conference championship fit in with a 12 team playoff?

You're almost more likely to end up with 2 10 team divisions where you play everyone in your division and maybe 1 team in the other division? So you play every team once a decade? Not sure I'm a fan of that.

Maybe they get more creative than that? 2 10 team divisions, play all teams in your division for a 9 game conference schedule, then during championship game weekend instead of just having the winner of each division play, you have 1 v 1, 2 v 2, 3 v3, etc? But what are they playing for, and again, how does this fit with a 12 team play off?

Bottom line, the B1G is in no rush, unless it results in more $$$. If they invite Cal/Stanford/Washington/Oregon today they'll get a yes. If they extend the invitation in 2 years they'll get a yes. In 5 years they'd likely get a yes too. The only reason to rush is if they need more local games for USC/UCLA, or if they think they'll get priced out of adding them because the Pac12 contract ends up being more than they are willing to pay.