OskiDeLaHoya said:

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6956bear said:

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OskiDeLaHoya said:

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Might we hear some expansion news in the coming days?

I don't post often on Twitter but I lurk there for news and the chatter this week seems more than normal. It's all speculative, so I don't have any specific insider info to link. But a few things that caught my eye today:

1 - This Rick Neuheisel quote from ESPNU radio on SiriusXM this morning:

"I have it from sources that it's all but done in respects to Washington and Oregon" (to the BIG)

Rick Neuheisel on ESPN radio today

— Doug Scott (@DouglasTS) October 11, 2022

If you listen to the clip in the thread, he adds "potentially Stanford and Cal"

2- Matt Hayes had this article
https://saturdaytradition.com/big-ten-football/the-b1g-10-fire-his-son-iowas-kirk-ferentz-is-in-a-tough-spot-but-theres-little-choice/

Scroll down to no. 8, which had this tidbit:

Two separate industry sources have told me the Big Ten is deep into talks with Amazon to join the league's media rights group that includes Fox, CBS and NBC. The Big Ten needs Amazon to pay an estimated $320 million annually to make the 4 new teams whole ($80 million each) with the rest of the Big Ten in 2024.


3 - It's Big Ten Basketball media day today. Conference leaders are in Minneapolis. Among other things , they will be discussing next year's football scheduling and possibly doing away with divisions. But with all of them gathered together, could further expansion also be on the agenda?

Also - and take this with the largest grain of salt: the B1G Chief of Staff's Twitter account started following 700+ accounts in a matter of hours today. I checked his profile earlier in the day and he was following 9300 users. A couple of hours later he was following 10K+ users. He's at 10.2K now. I had read over the summer that he followed a lot of accounts around the time of the UCLA/USC move. The presumption was that he's looking for leaks.

Maybe adding/removing accounts is something he normally does (and I hadn't visited his profile recently to see if this is part of a pattern) but starting to follow 900+ accounts in one day seems like a sign. Take it for what it's worth.

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Yes that $320M number is needed to make them full share partners. But there are numerous reports that the 4 P12 schools would be willing to join with less than a full share to start. Also it is possible that the Big 10 would take just 2 additional schools for now. Which would make the annual payout by Amazon or anybody else less. There was a report just 2 weeks back that as little as $100M from Amazon could get a deal done. That would suggest that UW and UO would join for less than a full share.

There is an escalator clause in the current deal. It does allow for more money if the conference adds members. Most feel that clause is primarily in place to lure Notre Dame which is the big chip the conference desires. But apparently the clause does allow for some escalation if others join. How much is not publicly known but there are rumors it is higher than some believe.

The P12 cannot be excited that Amazon is the rumored partner in further Big 10 media rights talks. There is an expectation that a streamer will partner with a linear provider to create a larger P12 deal than a stand alone linear provider would offer. Some of the linear providers have streaming options. NBC has Peacock for example and could provide games on USA and CNBC as they do now with English Premier League soccer. Would NBC take the P12 over extending their ND deal? Seems unlikely to me, especially with them being part of the new Big 10 media deal.

There are some that still believe the Big 10 will add just 2 for now and try and leverage the 2 remaining slots to get Notre Dame to move. I am not in that camp. I believe ND stands pat for now.

The worst scenario for Cal is that the Big 10 adds UW and UO now and stops. That kills the P12. It makes any sort of TV deal less valuable for the networks. It could however trigger the regents to move decisively against UCLA which is something I think they would prefer to avoid.

If enough money is offered to add 4 teams I do believe Cal would be one of them. It makes sense for the Big 10 despite Cal not being a premier sports program. The market, location, academic profile etc are too hard for the Big 10 presidents to ignore. But it seems unlikely they would be offered a full share to join.

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I didn't put much stock in the $320M figure. I would be very surprised if the B1G were able to negotiate a deal that large for what would essentially be the 4th, 5th or 6th best game each week. I was more interested to learn that he had multiple sources telling him they were deep in negotiations. I can see why Amazon would prefer to make a deal with an expanded B1G that includes 4-6 teams from the West vs making a deal with the Pac-10/12. A package with the B1G will have some cross-country matchups that will help drive better ratings (even if it's mid-level teams) compared to a package with primarily West Coast teams

I don't see the B1G only adding 2 teams if they're serious about adding a 4th late night window on Saturday. With 2 teams, you're going going to get a steady diet of UW and UO (and maybe UCLA ) home games every week. Not sure if UW and UO want to sign up for that but who knows. You need more teams added to the rotation. And I think USC has enough sway to avoid those games.

What could an Amazon package look like? If it were me, I would build a package of 6-8 Friday night games (maybe have some of the middling B1G teams host some in the Central time zone; games start at 5PM CT or 6PM PT, depending on who's hosting), 6-8 late night Saturday games (hosted by UW/UO/Cal/Stan/UCLA), and/or a handful of mid-day games.

I think games on Amazon will garner pretty good exposure. Imagine all the promos that will run on NFL Thursday Night Football for a Friday game the following day or a Saturday night game.

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I see it this way as well. The big thing will be getting a big enough TV deal to integrate 4 teams without having to touch the current members payouts. If that can happen and the 4 P12 programs are ok with the reduced shares to start then I think you have a deal.

movielover said:

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Has anyone detailed how UCLA athletics got so far in debt, and how Cal and Stanford avoided that?

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It is, I believe, an internal debt which essentially is something of an artifact of higher ed accounting. As I both understand (and surmise) it likely revolves around the accounting for scholarships - which the AD can not cover and thus are covered by the "chancellor's Budget" and accounted for as a deficit.

That is likely (again an assumption) why the campus is generally in favor - because a windfall from the B1G to pay back that deficit is a windfall to the Chancellor's office which, in turn, can distribute to academic departments in a number of ways that is attractive to faculty (aka likely additional tenure track positions).

Bobodeluxe said:

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Every mansion needs a doormat.

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True, but they have too many teams to play that doormat every year.

I think Cal and Furd are more look Iowa and Northwestern, mediocre and every once in while catch fire. I think the TOSU's of the world want a respectable team they can beat.

bearsandgiants said:

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dimitrig said:

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Bobodeluxe said:

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Every mansion needs a doormat.

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Big10 already has theirs in Rutgers

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Back door needs a mat, too.

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So that we can start fresh...

1. How did I misquote the UC president or the UC Chairman? So no one things I plagiarized and get in trouble with the quotation Karen somewhere above, here is the link:

https://www.latimes.com/sports/story/2022-08-18/blocking-ucla-move-to-big-ten-could-have-fallout-for-uc-regents

2. So - I would say that I really don't think the Regents have legal standing to stop UCLA. You and GMP and other posters feel that they have ultimate authority. But precedent says that they have only exercised it twice in the past 30 years. How that meshes with this issue is up for debate.

3. The ramifications are listed in the above link. Read it. I can post other articles about it if you would like. But since you want to be ******y about it. The business ramifications for Cal seem clear to me. As do the business ramifications of UCLA. Most articles read that to stop UCLA would alter the fundamental and existing bureaucratic processes of the Regents. As well as the UC Chancellors.

4. Your opinion is based on an explicit reading of the Regents and their processes. In all of this, the "still under review" really highlights the fact that they are unsure how to proceed. And the clock is ticking. We are one game less than halfway? The Big 10 has their media deal in place. The Pac12 does not. The Big 10 media rights deal takes effect next year. One may assume that the media rights deal for 2023 has some elements of UCLA and USC's looming entry into the Big 10 but I don't know.

All in all, in my opinion, there are too many wheels rolling to stop this. The train has already left the station.

Let me ask you something - do you think UCLA's lawyers looked at this from a legal perspective as to whether they could exit the Pac 12? If so, on what basis or legal reasoning do you believe they found that (they believe) permitted their exit?

6956bear said:

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wifeisafurd said:

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Bobodeluxe said:

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Every mansion needs a doormat.

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True, but they have too many teams to play that doormat every year.

I think Cal and Furd are more look Iowa and Northwestern, mediocre and every once in while catch fire. I think the TOSU's of the world want a respectable team they can beat.

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Or Purdue, Minnesota, Nebraska, Maryland and Illinois. Wisconsin fired their coach as they were of the belief they were headed towards this territory. Indiana and Rutgers would be bad in the P12. At present only OSU and Michigan are really good annually. Penn St has resurfaced this season and has great history and MSU is up and down.

The Big 10 like most leagues is top heavy. The middle is nothing special and the bottom is bad like the bottom of most leagues. But the fans show up every week at virtually every school. And they watch the games on TV.

The Big 10 Presidents would love to add a Cal and Stanford. They would make the Big 10 the unprecendented leader in academics and big time athletics.

The fans are looking at their athletic profiles and see nothing. The Presidents see a lot of academic prestige and research firepower and a great market. And guess what the fans will watch regardless. TV would prefer better football, but adding UO and UW to USC and UCLA help there.

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That sounds about right. When all is said and done and everyone stops posturing, I expect Cal and Furd to get invites. I'm not saying this with any inside information, just looking at fit and geography and potential economics with Amazon desiring big TV markets for football to drive Prime prescriptions, it is what makes sense.

Having ultimate authority and exercising such authority are two separate matters. Choosing not to exercise ultimate authority does not equate to giving up such authority.

OskiDeLaHoya said:

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Might we hear some expansion news in the coming days?

I don't post often on Twitter but I lurk there for news and the chatter this week seems more than normal. It's all speculative, so I don't have any specific insider info to link. But a few things that caught my eye today:

1 - This Rick Neuheisel quote from ESPNU radio on SiriusXM this morning:

"I have it from sources that it's all but done in respects to Washington and Oregon" (to the BIG)

Rick Neuheisel on ESPN radio today

— Doug Scott (@DouglasTS) October 11, 2022

If you listen to the clip in the thread, he adds "potentially Stanford and Cal"

2- Matt Hayes had this article
https://saturdaytradition.com/big-ten-football/the-b1g-10-fire-his-son-iowas-kirk-ferentz-is-in-a-tough-spot-but-theres-little-choice/

Scroll down to no. 8, which had this tidbit:

Two separate industry sources have told me the Big Ten is deep into talks with Amazon to join the league's media rights group that includes Fox, CBS and NBC. The Big Ten needs Amazon to pay an estimated $320 million annually to make the 4 new teams whole ($80 million each) with the rest of the Big Ten in 2024.


3 - It's Big Ten Basketball media day today. Conference leaders are in Minneapolis. Among other things , they will be discussing next year's football scheduling and possibly doing away with divisions. But with all of them gathered together, could further expansion also be on the agenda?

Also - and take this with the largest grain of salt: the B1G Chief of Staff's Twitter account started following 700+ accounts in a matter of hours today. I checked his profile earlier in the day and he was following 9300 users. A couple of hours later he was following 10K+ users. He's at 10.2K now. I had read over the summer that he followed a lot of accounts around the time of the UCLA/USC move. The presumption was that he's looking for leaks.

Maybe adding/removing accounts is something he normally does (and I hadn't visited his profile recently to see if this is part of a pattern) but starting to follow 900+ accounts in one day seems like a sign. Take it for what it's worth.

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Because it wouldn't be college football expansion unless another sports writer has the exact opposite take: https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-big-ten-sounds-like-its-standing

sosheezy said:

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berserkeley said:

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Because it wouldn't be college football expansion unless another sports writer has the exact opposite take: https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-big-ten-sounds-like-its-standing

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From Canzano's piece:

"Said Warren: "Because of all the conference movement that's going on, is it always somewhere in the atmosphere? Sure. Generally speaking, I don't believe we are in a position that we have to go out and aggressively try to recruit any other schools."

It sounds to me like Warren and the Big Ten are backing off, for now."

I don't read that quote/passage the same way Canzano does. I think it can just as easily be interpreted as we aren't recruiting anyone (this assumes they got a clear no from ND who they WOULD be recruiting) and any schools left are actively pitching to the Big Ten, essentially recruiting themselves.

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Warren's attitude at this moment also doesn't necessarily run against the other commentary, which basically says the B1G is waiting to see what the media market will be for the current P12 teams. Doesn't mean they can't start up expansion again.

sycasey said:

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sosheezy said:

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berserkeley said:

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Because it wouldn't be college football expansion unless another sports writer has the exact opposite take: https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-big-ten-sounds-like-its-standing

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From Canzano's piece:

"Said Warren: "Because of all the conference movement that's going on, is it always somewhere in the atmosphere? Sure. Generally speaking, I don't believe we are in a position that we have to go out and aggressively try to recruit any other schools."

It sounds to me like Warren and the Big Ten are backing off, for now."

I don't read that quote/passage the same way Canzano does. I think it can just as easily be interpreted as we aren't recruiting anyone (this assumes they got a clear no from ND who they WOULD be recruiting) and any schools left are actively pitching to the Big Ten, essentially recruiting themselves.

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Warren's attitude at this moment also doesn't necessarily run against the other commentary, which basically says the B1G is waiting to see what the media market will be for the current P12 teams. Doesn't mean they can't start up expansion again.

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It certainly seems to contradict the "it's all but done" tweet to which I was replying.

berserkeley said:

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sycasey said:

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sosheezy said:

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berserkeley said:

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Because it wouldn't be college football expansion unless another sports writer has the exact opposite take: https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-big-ten-sounds-like-its-standing

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From Canzano's piece:

"Said Warren: "Because of all the conference movement that's going on, is it always somewhere in the atmosphere? Sure. Generally speaking, I don't believe we are in a position that we have to go out and aggressively try to recruit any other schools."

It sounds to me like Warren and the Big Ten are backing off, for now."

I don't read that quote/passage the same way Canzano does. I think it can just as easily be interpreted as we aren't recruiting anyone (this assumes they got a clear no from ND who they WOULD be recruiting) and any schools left are actively pitching to the Big Ten, essentially recruiting themselves.

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Warren's attitude at this moment also doesn't necessarily run against the other commentary, which basically says the B1G is waiting to see what the media market will be for the current P12 teams. Doesn't mean they can't start up expansion again.

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It certainly seems to contradict the "it's all but done" tweet to which I was replying.

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Even if it was "all but done" they wouldn't be saying it publicly yet, assuming they're waiting to see what the media numbers look like.

Going off of what Kevin Warren mentioned in his interview, Big Ten expansion is basically on the back burner.
"It doesn’t mean expansion is not a priority, but it no longer has the immediacy it did during the summer."https://t.co/2Ksx4cScHY pic.twitter.com/NIq3QdTsIH

— Big Ten announcement coming (@Genetics56) October 12, 2022

HoopDreams said:

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Going off of what Kevin Warren mentioned in his interview, Big Ten expansion is basically on the back burner.
"It doesn’t mean expansion is not a priority, but it no longer has the immediacy it did during the summer."https://t.co/2Ksx4cScHY pic.twitter.com/NIq3QdTsIH

— Big Ten announcement coming (@Genetics56) October 12, 2022

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So it looks like we really need Kliavkoff to negotiate a great deal for us. That will allow us to survive while setting the bar higher for an eventual buyout by the B1G. If we have an easily available streaming option for all the games, that will be better than what we have now. With a good coach we will have a shot at the playoffs.

I don't think Kliavkoff is pursuing it, but I still think there could be a possible quasi-merger option between the PAC-10 and the B1G.

HoopDreams said:

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Going off of what Kevin Warren mentioned in his interview, Big Ten expansion is basically on the back burner.
"It doesn’t mean expansion is not a priority, but it no longer has the immediacy it did during the summer."https://t.co/2Ksx4cScHY pic.twitter.com/NIq3QdTsIH

— Big Ten announcement coming (@Genetics56) October 12, 2022

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A conspiracy theorist could read this as not contradictory of what Neuheisel reported. That is, expansion could lack immediacy because there's a deal in place (or close to it) which renders Big Ten expansion a priority (vague) but not anything they are worried about immediately.

Probably not. I'm just making a larger point - I don't really believe much of what this guy says. He has no incentive to say that the Big Ten is urgent to expand.

calumnus said:

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HoopDreams said:

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Going off of what Kevin Warren mentioned in his interview, Big Ten expansion is basically on the back burner.
"It doesn’t mean expansion is not a priority, but it no longer has the immediacy it did during the summer."https://t.co/2Ksx4cScHY pic.twitter.com/NIq3QdTsIH

— Big Ten announcement coming (@Genetics56) October 12, 2022

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So it looks like we really need Kliavkoff to negotiate a great deal for us. That will allow us to survive while setting the bar higher for an eventual buyout by the B1G. If we have an easily available streaming option for all the games, that will be better than what we have now. With a good coach we will have a shot at the playoffs.

I don't think Kliavkoff is pursuing it, but I still think there could be a possible quasi-merger option between the PAC-10 and the B1G.

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Not sure what great deal there is to be had. ESPN and FOX do not seem interested in the P12 for anything other than the late window slot. Both would love to have that window but for now it appears they are not willing to pay what Kliavkoff wants to get that to happen. USC and UCLA gone hurt tremendously in trying negotiate a good payout for what is essentially one window of time.

A streaming partner seems to be necessary to get the earlier gametimes broadcast. I suppose it is possible that ESPN could take on P12 after dark for Friday and Saturday nights and Amazon takes on everything else. But if it is true that UW and UO have a handshake agreement to join the Big 10 can they get any GOR actually signed.

Warren wants to expand now. Today. The Big 10 Presidents need to sign off and at present that seems to be the holdup. What is likely occurring is that Warren is trying to get the votes. Amazon and possibly Apple are in talks with the Big 10 but will need further expansion approval before agreeing on a deal.

My guess is there is a dollar number required for the Big 10 Presidents to agree to expanding further. And today that number has not has not been met. Will Amazon ultimately decide to go big for the P12? It may make more sense for them to spend more for that late window in the Big 10 and secure expansion now. What is the payout required to get that to happen?

An agreement with ESPN/FOX and a streaming partner seems like the best chance for the P12 to stay intact. There are some that believe NBC could be a player here as well. They already have ND and will be part of the Big 10 as well. Do they want to partner with the P12 as well? Peacock?

berserkeley said:

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OskiDeLaHoya said:

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Might we hear some expansion news in the coming days?

I don't post often on Twitter but I lurk there for news and the chatter this week seems more than normal. It's all speculative, so I don't have any specific insider info to link. But a few things that caught my eye today:

1 - This Rick Neuheisel quote from ESPNU radio on SiriusXM this morning:

"I have it from sources that it's all but done in respects to Washington and Oregon" (to the BIG)

Rick Neuheisel on ESPN radio today

— Doug Scott (@DouglasTS) October 11, 2022

If you listen to the clip in the thread, he adds "potentially Stanford and Cal"

2- Matt Hayes had this article
https://saturdaytradition.com/big-ten-football/the-b1g-10-fire-his-son-iowas-kirk-ferentz-is-in-a-tough-spot-but-theres-little-choice/

Scroll down to no. 8, which had this tidbit:

Two separate industry sources have told me the Big Ten is deep into talks with Amazon to join the league's media rights group that includes Fox, CBS and NBC. The Big Ten needs Amazon to pay an estimated $320 million annually to make the 4 new teams whole ($80 million each) with the rest of the Big Ten in 2024.


3 - It's Big Ten Basketball media day today. Conference leaders are in Minneapolis. Among other things , they will be discussing next year's football scheduling and possibly doing away with divisions. But with all of them gathered together, could further expansion also be on the agenda?

Also - and take this with the largest grain of salt: the B1G Chief of Staff's Twitter account started following 700+ accounts in a matter of hours today. I checked his profile earlier in the day and he was following 9300 users. A couple of hours later he was following 10K+ users. He's at 10.2K now. I had read over the summer that he followed a lot of accounts around the time of the UCLA/USC move. The presumption was that he's looking for leaks.

Maybe adding/removing accounts is something he normally does (and I hadn't visited his profile recently to see if this is part of a pattern) but starting to follow 900+ accounts in one day seems like a sign. Take it for what it's worth.

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Because it wouldn't be college football expansion unless another sports writer has the exact opposite take: https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-big-ten-sounds-like-its-standing

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Sentiment definitely swinging the other way (towards "no expansion imminent" in the latter half of the week:

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/amp/ncaa-football/news/big-ten-commissioner-kevin-warren-expansion-not-something-we%E2%80%99re-doing/yhkdudzkguta6y6e4j5nqbsb

From the article:
____

Warren: Because of the landscape we live in, college athletics right now, just being a prudent businesswoman or businessman, you have to be mindful of potential conference realignment or expansion. But this is not something we're aggressively doing right now.

When people ask me right now: Do I think certain conferences may grow through a natural evolution to 18 or 20 schools? I do believe that. Now, over what time period is the critical question. I don't know if that's within a year, or five years, or seven years. I just think there's been kind of like that … kind of like the Big Ten grew in the past.

_____


Somewhat related, I enjoyed watching this interview with Amazon's VP of Sports Content:



At 39:00, she talks about Marshawn Lynch joining the TNF crew with pre-taped segments.

At 44:30, she talks a little bit about Amazon's interest in College Football. No real revelations since negotiations are ongoing but the most interesting thing for me was that it seemed - to me at least - that she was more excited about the prospect of getting Friday night games, rather than Saturday games.

John Canzano: Big Ten sounds like it's standing down vs. Pac-12

"Oregon and Washington don't pencil out for the Big Ten. I don't blame the Ducks and Huskies for hiring consultants and doing some back-channeling. They'd be foolish not to explore the options. But, unless the Big Ten is going to give both schools a full $72.3-million-a-year media-rights share in year one, leaving just doesn't make sense. They'll have much better access to the playoff staying in the Pac-12."

"Warren cast a far more measured tone on Tuesday. He steered the focus to the conference's current members and its network partners. It was a dramatically different scene than the chest-thumping act from the summer, first at media day, and then, in a celebratory interview with HBO's Real Sports.

"This Warren appeared interested in managing public expectations. Also, he sounded more mindful of the college sports eco-system, pointing out that several other conferences, including the Pac-12, were engaged in media-rights negotiations."

https://open.substack.com/pub/johncanzano/p/canzano-big-ten-sounds-like-its-standing?r=qjouy&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

movielover said:

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John Canzano: Big Ten sounds like it's standing down vs. Pac-12

"Oregon and Washington don't pencil out for the Big Ten. I don't blame the Ducks and Huskies for hiring consultants and doing some back-channeling. They'd be foolish not to explore the options. But, unless the Big Ten is going to give both schools a full $72.3-million-a-year media-rights share in year one, leaving just doesn't make sense. They'll have much better access to the playoff staying in the Pac-12."

"Warren cast a far more measured tone on Tuesday. He steered the focus to the conference's current members and its network partners. It was a dramatically different scene than the chest-thumping act from the summer, first at media day, and then, in a celebratory interview with HBO's Real Sports.

"This Warren appeared interested in managing public expectations. Also, he sounded more mindful of the college sports eco-system, pointing out that several other conferences, including the Pac-12, were engaged in media-rights negotiations."

https://open.substack.com/pub/johncanzano/p/canzano-big-ten-sounds-like-its-standing?r=qjouy&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

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Interesting - so who is to believe - Neuheisal (sp) or Canzano? Personally, I don't think anyone should interpret Warren's comments - I mean this is the guy who supported the alliance he just blew up.

fat_slice said:

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movielover said:

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John Canzano: Big Ten sounds like it's standing down vs. Pac-12

"Oregon and Washington don't pencil out for the Big Ten. I don't blame the Ducks and Huskies for hiring consultants and doing some back-channeling. They'd be foolish not to explore the options. But, unless the Big Ten is going to give both schools a full $72.3-million-a-year media-rights share in year one, leaving just doesn't make sense. They'll have much better access to the playoff staying in the Pac-12."

"Warren cast a far more measured tone on Tuesday. He steered the focus to the conference's current members and its network partners. It was a dramatically different scene than the chest-thumping act from the summer, first at media day, and then, in a celebratory interview with HBO's Real Sports.

"This Warren appeared interested in managing public expectations. Also, he sounded more mindful of the college sports eco-system, pointing out that several other conferences, including the Pac-12, were engaged in media-rights negotiations."

https://open.substack.com/pub/johncanzano/p/canzano-big-ten-sounds-like-its-standing?r=qjouy&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

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Interesting - so who is to believe - Neuheisal (sp) or Canzano? Personally, I don't think anyone should interpret Warren's comments - I mean this is the guy who supported the alliance he just blew up.

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Yeah, I don't think you can take him at face value.

Ultimately none of this is inconsistent with the idea that the Big Ten would like to add more teams, but they are waiting to see what kinds of media offers the remaining Pac-12 can get. I think that's probably what's happening. And of course, the numbers ultimately might not make sense. We just don't know that yet.

OskiDeLaHoya said:

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berserkeley said:

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OskiDeLaHoya said:

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Might we hear some expansion news in the coming days?

I don't post often on Twitter but I lurk there for news and the chatter this week seems more than normal. It's all speculative, so I don't have any specific insider info to link. But a few things that caught my eye today:

1 - This Rick Neuheisel quote from ESPNU radio on SiriusXM this morning:

"I have it from sources that it's all but done in respects to Washington and Oregon" (to the BIG)

Rick Neuheisel on ESPN radio today

— Doug Scott (@DouglasTS) October 11, 2022

If you listen to the clip in the thread, he adds "potentially Stanford and Cal"

2- Matt Hayes had this article
https://saturdaytradition.com/big-ten-football/the-b1g-10-fire-his-son-iowas-kirk-ferentz-is-in-a-tough-spot-but-theres-little-choice/

Scroll down to no. 8, which had this tidbit:

Two separate industry sources have told me the Big Ten is deep into talks with Amazon to join the league's media rights group that includes Fox, CBS and NBC. The Big Ten needs Amazon to pay an estimated $320 million annually to make the 4 new teams whole ($80 million each) with the rest of the Big Ten in 2024.


3 - It's Big Ten Basketball media day today. Conference leaders are in Minneapolis. Among other things , they will be discussing next year's football scheduling and possibly doing away with divisions. But with all of them gathered together, could further expansion also be on the agenda?

Also - and take this with the largest grain of salt: the B1G Chief of Staff's Twitter account started following 700+ accounts in a matter of hours today. I checked his profile earlier in the day and he was following 9300 users. A couple of hours later he was following 10K+ users. He's at 10.2K now. I had read over the summer that he followed a lot of accounts around the time of the UCLA/USC move. The presumption was that he's looking for leaks.

Maybe adding/removing accounts is something he normally does (and I hadn't visited his profile recently to see if this is part of a pattern) but starting to follow 900+ accounts in one day seems like a sign. Take it for what it's worth.

---

Because it wouldn't be college football expansion unless another sports writer has the exact opposite take: https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-big-ten-sounds-like-its-standing

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Sentiment definitely swinging the other way (towards "no expansion imminent" in the latter half of the week:

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/amp/ncaa-football/news/big-ten-commissioner-kevin-warren-expansion-not-something-we%E2%80%99re-doing/yhkdudzkguta6y6e4j5nqbsb

From the article:
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Warren: Because of the landscape we live in, college athletics right now, just being a prudent businesswoman or businessman, you have to be mindful of potential conference realignment or expansion. But this is not something we're aggressively doing right now.

When people ask me right now: Do I think certain conferences may grow through a natural evolution to 18 or 20 schools? I do believe that. Now, over what time period is the critical question. I don't know if that's within a year, or five years, or seven years. I just think there's been kind of like that … kind of like the Big Ten grew in the past.

_____


Somewhat related, I enjoyed watching this interview with Amazon's VP of Sports Content:



At 39:00, she talks about Marshawn Lynch joining the TNF crew with pre-taped segments.

At 44:30, she talks a little bit about Amazon's interest in College Football. No real revelations since negotiations are ongoing but the most interesting thing for me was that it seemed - to me at least - that she was more excited about the prospect of getting Friday night games, rather than Saturday games.

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Marie is good. Like the younger audiences commentary.

fat_slice said:

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movielover said:

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John Canzano: Big Ten sounds like it's standing down vs. Pac-12

"Oregon and Washington don't pencil out for the Big Ten. I don't blame the Ducks and Huskies for hiring consultants and doing some back-channeling. They'd be foolish not to explore the options. But, unless the Big Ten is going to give both schools a full $72.3-million-a-year media-rights share in year one, leaving just doesn't make sense. They'll have much better access to the playoff staying in the Pac-12."

"Warren cast a far more measured tone on Tuesday. He steered the focus to the conference's current members and its network partners. It was a dramatically different scene than the chest-thumping act from the summer, first at media day, and then, in a celebratory interview with HBO's Real Sports.

"This Warren appeared interested in managing public expectations. Also, he sounded more mindful of the college sports eco-system, pointing out that several other conferences, including the Pac-12, were engaged in media-rights negotiations."

https://open.substack.com/pub/johncanzano/p/canzano-big-ten-sounds-like-its-standing?r=qjouy&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

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Interesting - so who is to believe - Neuheisal (sp) or Canzano? Personally, I don't think anyone should interpret Warren's comments - I mean this is the guy who supported the alliance he just blew up.

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Timing will likely be determined by the Pac "12" negotiations, since the B1G then will now what numbers is has to produce to be competitive and see if that fits the model for its existing members. I don't know who Rick N is talking to, but Canzano is not talking to anyone in the know from a California school .

wifeisafurd said:

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fat_slice said:

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movielover said:

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John Canzano: Big Ten sounds like it's standing down vs. Pac-12

"Oregon and Washington don't pencil out for the Big Ten. I don't blame the Ducks and Huskies for hiring consultants and doing some back-channeling. They'd be foolish not to explore the options. But, unless the Big Ten is going to give both schools a full $72.3-million-a-year media-rights share in year one, leaving just doesn't make sense. They'll have much better access to the playoff staying in the Pac-12."

"Warren cast a far more measured tone on Tuesday. He steered the focus to the conference's current members and its network partners. It was a dramatically different scene than the chest-thumping act from the summer, first at media day, and then, in a celebratory interview with HBO's Real Sports.

"This Warren appeared interested in managing public expectations. Also, he sounded more mindful of the college sports eco-system, pointing out that several other conferences, including the Pac-12, were engaged in media-rights negotiations."

https://open.substack.com/pub/johncanzano/p/canzano-big-ten-sounds-like-its-standing?r=qjouy&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

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Interesting - so who is to believe - Neuheisal (sp) or Canzano? Personally, I don't think anyone should interpret Warren's comments - I mean this is the guy who supported the alliance he just blew up.

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Timing will likely be determined by the Pac "12" negotiations, since the B1G then will now what numbers is has to produce to be competitive and see if that fits the model for its existing members. I don't know who Rick N is talking to, but Canzano is not talking to anyone in the know from a California school .

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I agree regarding the timing. I don't think the Big 10 is necessarily done expanding during this window, but an invitation does not appear to be imminent. Access to the CFP is important, but the revenue that the Big 10 will be distributing is the bigger factor IMO.

philly1121 said:

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wifeisafurd said:

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.

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Bottom line is this. Everyone wishes we were more successful and thought of leaving first. But, we didn't. Chalk it up to poor or unfocused management. Who knows. But - everyone is mad because our lesser "sister school" is strengthening their position at the supposed expense of us. We are being left behind. And for us to say, "well then they need to cover our stadium costs because their departure will negatively impact the UC system" - its actually quite pathetic.

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Agree 100%.

If they'll chip in $50M, take it.

movielover said:

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If they'll chip in $50M, take it.

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What is hilarious is that the Big Ten (and everybody else) knows that they can give just us a raw deal and we'll take it while other schools get more.

SoFlaBear said:

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I have neither tweet nor article to cite. I will tell you what I'm hearing from a friend up in Oregon.

1) Word is that UCLA is already experiencing some buyers remorse over the B1G as the reality of the expense of coast-to coast travel for all of the many non-revenue sports may make the deal not-as-sweet as first imagined.

2) He keeps hearing a rumor that Jeff Bezos/Prime has some interest in forming and broadcasting a Western superconference to rival the B1G and SEC.

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1) Hahahaha SUCK IT UCLA
2) Cool idea but who would this include? The PAC already includes nearly all the good west coast teams. Don't see any path for a super conference

Add in San Diego State, and a few Texas schools?

eastcoastcal said:

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SoFlaBear said:

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I have neither tweet nor article to cite. I will tell you what I'm hearing from a friend up in Oregon.

1) Word is that UCLA is already experiencing some buyers remorse over the B1G as the reality of the expense of coast-to coast travel for all of the many non-revenue sports may make the deal not-as-sweet as first imagined.

2) He keeps hearing a rumor that Jeff Bezos/Prime has some interest in forming and broadcasting a Western superconference to rival the B1G and SEC.

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1) Hahahaha SUCK IT UCLA
2) Cool idea but who would this include? The PAC already includes nearly all the good west coast teams. Don't see any path for a super conference

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Would have to include getting UCLA back, and likely raiding the Big12 for their top teams. If Amazon is willing to offer enough money we would have no issues picking up the biggest teams left in the big12.

With enough money it would not be hard to get to ~16 teams that are desirable and at least on paper would rival the B1G / SEC (not necessarily at the top, but throughout the rest of the conference). Whatever happens though, I would imagine that it HAS to include the LA market.

SoFlaBear said:

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I have neither tweet nor article to cite. I will tell you what I'm hearing from a friend up in Oregon.

1) Word is that UCLA is already experiencing some buyers remorse over the B1G as the reality of the expense of coast-to coast travel for all of the many non-revenue sports may make the deal not-as-sweet as first imagined.

2) He keeps hearing a rumor that Jeff Bezos/Prime has some interest in forming and broadcasting a Western superconference to rival the B1G and SEC.

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All of that just seems to make it more likely that the B1G further raids the Pac-12 and takes Oregon, Washington, Cal, and Stanford as has been speculated on in the media.

Add San Diego St, Fresno, Baylor, Texas Tech, TCU, BYU?

A lot of those schools still have animosity towards us though

movielover said:

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Add in San Diego State, and a few Texas schools?

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That is under consideration.