Pac-12 commish George Kliavkoff visiiting SMU

118,950 Views | 1094 Replies | Last: 4 mo ago by calumnus
calumnus
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BearSD said:

calumnus said:



Right now there is a "P5" but really the B1G and SEC are the two powers. The viability of each of the ACC, PAC-10 and Big-12, is in question, especially after the departures of Texas, Oklahoma, UCLA and USC. The ACC could easily get carved up by the B1G and SEC when their schools' GORs expire. The B12 sees an opportunity to become the clear #3 conference, but it needs the PAC-10 to implode so the 4 southwest schools join.
There is now a Power 2 and a Mid 3. The Big 12 has more long-term stability than the Pac and ACC because the Big Ten and SEC have no interest in any Big 12 members, whereas several Pac and ACC members are on the fat cats' menu, or at least hope to be.



Exactly, and the B12 would not mind facilitating a P2 with them gobbling up the southwest schools plus SDSU to be the clear #3.

That is why I think Kliavkoff's best strategy is a quasi merger with either the B1G or ACC. That would either add the PAC-12 to the Power 2, or would create a Power3, leaving the B-12 as the clear #4
Econ141
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calumnus said:

BearSD said:

calumnus said:



Right now there is a "P5" but really the B1G and SEC are the two powers. The viability of each of the ACC, PAC-10 and Big-12, is in question, especially after the departures of Texas, Oklahoma, UCLA and USC. The ACC could easily get carved up by the B1G and SEC when their schools' GORs expire. The B12 sees an opportunity to become the clear #3 conference, but it needs the PAC-10 to implode so the 4 southwest schools join.
There is now a Power 2 and a Mid 3. The Big 12 has more long-term stability than the Pac and ACC because the Big Ten and SEC have no interest in any Big 12 members, whereas several Pac and ACC members are on the fat cats' menu, or at least hope to be.



Exactly, and the B12 would not mind facilitating a P2 with them gobbling up the southwest schools plus SDSU to be the clear #3.

That is why I think Kliavkoff's best strategy is a quasi merger with either the B1G or ACC. That would either add the PAC-12 to the Power 2, or would create a Power3, leaving the B-12 as the clear #4


This would be a great flex move.
tequila4kapp
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People should listen to the Mark Madsen podcast with Jon Rothstein. Especially at about the 18:30 mark.
Econ141
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If we have 100mm to build a practice facility, shouldn't we be able to buy our way into the B1G?
6956bear
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Econ141 said:

If we have 100mm to build a practice facility, shouldn't we be able to buy our way into the B1G?
Not sure about "buying" our way into the B1G, but it does suggest a different commitment level than previous. Which is likely something the B1G would want to see if Cal wants into the B1G.

There are some recent behavior signs that suggest Cal is getting more serious about revenue sports. The B1G will absolutely be expanding west. The only questions are when and where. UW is in for sure. UO a very strong likely as well. What about Cal and Stanford? My guess is the B1G would love their academic profile, but Fox Sports may not be on board.

I think another media partner needs to come on board in the B1G media deal to get Cal into the B1G. That could happen after their new commissioner gets officially on board (May 18). There are rumblings that Colorado and Arizona are considering a preemptive jump to the Big 12. They know that the P12 is likely not in a great position longer term. Do they jump now and take a sure deal? Or do they wait and hope that Kliavkoff can get some sort of acceptable media deal that keeps everyone together?

If Colorado and Arizona jump now then the B1G likely moves forward with UW and UO. The P12 is essentially done and the remaining programs scramble for a new home. In that scenario I do believe Cal could get an invite the B1G. The Big 12 is not a fit for Cal. A media deal for the leftover programs will not be acceptable to anyone other than perhaps WSU and OSU both of which have no obvious landing spot in realignment.

There almost certainly will be an expansion of the B1G. A few chips need to fall for it to happen for 2024. But the the timelines are short. Any conference expansion will require some logistical manuevering that takes some time to sort out. My guess is the B1G has various scenarios ready to go if expansion happens now. There is a reason they are still sorting out their scheduling.

We have not heard anything from UW, UO, Stanford or Cal on the proposed media deal. That silence says more than all the talking you hear from UA, ASU, Colorado and Utah IMO. The P12 likely ended as we knew it when USC and UCLA agreed to leave last year. All that remains is the timeline for an official ending. Could be 2024 or 2030 or perhaps even somewhere in between.

Logic suggests there is no way UCLA and USC are left on an island for 5 seasons. I think the remaining programs know this. So do the media companies.
wifeisafurd
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It should be interesting as coach and AD swings are starting the next couple of week. Fans will be asking hard questions. Furd is down in the OC tonight with Muir and Coach Taylor.
6956bear
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wifeisafurd said:

It should be interesting as coach and AD swings are starting the next couple of week. Fans will be asking hard questions. Furd is down in the OC tonight with Muir and Coach Taylor.
Truth.
wifeisafurd
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6956bear said:

wifeisafurd said:

It should be interesting as coach and AD swings are starting the next couple of week. Fans will be asking hard questions. Furd is down in the OC tonight with Muir and Coach Taylor.
Truth.
Muir is smooth, but also he was candid. Media is far off on most stuff going on with the Pac conference.

Troy Taylor could not be more different than Wilcox or Shaw. Looking to get a play off on average every 13 seconds. Will generally go for it on forth down, etc. Expect a very aggressive offensive, almost always playing with tempo. Troy is a very high energy speaker, with a joke every 13 seconds or so. My sense was their crowd viewed Troy quite positively.
philbert
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wifeisafurd said:

6956bear said:

wifeisafurd said:

It should be interesting as coach and AD swings are starting the next couple of week. Fans will be asking hard questions. Furd is down in the OC tonight with Muir and Coach Taylor.
Truth.
Muir is smooth, but also he was candid. Media is far off on most stuff going on with the Pac conference.

Troy Taylor could not be more different than Wilcox or Shaw. Looking to get a play off on average every 13 seconds. Will generally go for it on forth down, etc. Expect a very aggressive offensive, almost always playing with tempo. Troy is a very high energy speaker, with a joke every 13 seconds or so. My sense was their crowd viewed in quite positively.

I'm sure you don't want to give away confidential info but was he generally optimistic about the future of the Bay Area schools or something else?
calumnus
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wifeisafurd said:

6956bear said:

wifeisafurd said:

It should be interesting as coach and AD swings are starting the next couple of week. Fans will be asking hard questions. Furd is down in the OC tonight with Muir and Coach Taylor.
Truth.
Muir is smooth, but also he was candid. Media is far off on most stuff going on with the Pac conference.

Troy Taylor could not be more different than Wilcox or Shaw. Looking to get a play off on average every 13 seconds. Will generally go for it on forth down, etc. Expect a very aggressive offensive, almost always playing with tempo. Troy is a very high energy speaker, with a joke every 13 seconds or so. My sense was their crowd viewed in quite positively.



Troy Taylor is their Mark Madsen.
wifeisafurd
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philbert said:

wifeisafurd said:

6956bear said:

wifeisafurd said:

It should be interesting as coach and AD swings are starting the next couple of week. Fans will be asking hard questions. Furd is down in the OC tonight with Muir and Coach Taylor.
Truth.
Muir is smooth, but also he was candid. Media is far off on most stuff going on with the Pac conference.

Troy Taylor could not be more different than Wilcox or Shaw. Looking to get a play off on average every 13 seconds. Will generally go for it on forth down, etc. Expect a very aggressive offensive, almost always playing with tempo. Troy is a very high energy speaker, with a joke every 13 seconds or so. My sense was their crowd viewed in quite positively.

I'm sure you don't want to give away confidential info but was he generally optimistic about the future of the Bay Area schools or something else?
He spoke to a large crowd (hundreds), so I don't think anything was confidential.

Suggested a TV deal could take several months to approve, will start somewhere in the 30's per team and may go up (maybe suggesting could be 40M or more?), there will be several types of TV formats (both linear and streaming I assume, but he didn't say), there will be more control over game times (drew applause), SDSU and SMU do not appear to be part of the original TV contract, there may be only a Pac 10, but other programs would be considered once a TV contact was in place, a Pac 8 probably won't make sense, the NCAA is banking on federal law to make NIL uniform on a state to state basis, and no, Stanford will not be coming down to face USC or UCLA, which he realized was problematic for SoCal fans. Muir mixed things up with humor, but I admire the clear, transparent, and forthright approach he took. Probably other stuff I missed. He did not expressly say so, but it was apparent he was saying he thought Furd will be playing in the Pac next year. He did not speak about the Bay Area schools - I suspect he would not see that as appropriate to speak for Cal in a public forum.

Sorry about all the edits, but I keep remembering things. Taylor asked out loud if there would be a Rose Bowl game and did not get a response.
philbert
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Thanks WIAF. Sounds like the betting money is on the Pac-X surviving for one media contract cycle.
wifeisafurd
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philbert said:

Thanks WIAF. Sounds like the betting money is on the Pac-X surviving for one media contract cycle.
Concur.
OskiDeLaHoya
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wifeisafurd said:

philbert said:

wifeisafurd said:

6956bear said:

wifeisafurd said:

It should be interesting as coach and AD swings are starting the next couple of week. Fans will be asking hard questions. Furd is down in the OC tonight with Muir and Coach Taylor.
Truth.
Muir is smooth, but also he was candid. Media is far off on most stuff going on with the Pac conference.

Troy Taylor could not be more different than Wilcox or Shaw. Looking to get a play off on average every 13 seconds. Will generally go for it on forth down, etc. Expect a very aggressive offensive, almost always playing with tempo. Troy is a very high energy speaker, with a joke every 13 seconds or so. My sense was their crowd viewed in quite positively.

I'm sure you don't want to give away confidential info but was he generally optimistic about the future of the Bay Area schools or something else?
He spoke to a large crowd (hundreds), so I don't think anything was confidential.

Suggested a TV deal could take several months to approve, will start somewhere in the 30's per team and may go up (maybe suggesting could be 40M or more?), there will be several types of TV formats (both linear and streaming I assume, but he didn't say), there will be more control over game times (drew applause), SDSU and SMU do not appear to be part of the original TV contract, there may be only a Pac 10, but other programs would be considered once a TV contact was in place, a Pac 8 probably won't make sense, the NCAA is banking on federal law to make NIL uniform on a state to state basis, and no, Stanford will not be coming down to face USC or UCLA, which he realized was problematic for SoCal fans. Muir mixed things up with humor, but I admire the clear, transparent, and forthright approach he took. Probably other stuff I missed. He did not expressly say so, but it was apparent he was saying he thought Furd will be playing in the Pac next year. He did not speak about the Bay Area schools - I suspect he would not see that as appropriate to speak for Cal in a public forum.

Sorry about all the edits, but I keep remembering things. Taylor asked out loud if there would be a Rose Bowl game and did not get a response.

Thanks for the report, WIAF! Am I reading this correctly that Furd will not seek to schedule SC or UCLA if the SoCal schools should approach them? Or is he simply stating that not future matchups are currently scheduled?
wifeisafurd
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OskiDeLaHoya said:

wifeisafurd said:

philbert said:

wifeisafurd said:

6956bear said:

wifeisafurd said:

It should be interesting as coach and AD swings are starting the next couple of week. Fans will be asking hard questions. Furd is down in the OC tonight with Muir and Coach Taylor.
Truth.
Muir is smooth, but also he was candid. Media is far off on most stuff going on with the Pac conference.

Troy Taylor could not be more different than Wilcox or Shaw. Looking to get a play off on average every 13 seconds. Will generally go for it on forth down, etc. Expect a very aggressive offensive, almost always playing with tempo. Troy is a very high energy speaker, with a joke every 13 seconds or so. My sense was their crowd viewed in quite positively.

I'm sure you don't want to give away confidential info but was he generally optimistic about the future of the Bay Area schools or something else?
He spoke to a large crowd (hundreds), so I don't think anything was confidential.

Suggested a TV deal could take several months to approve, will start somewhere in the 30's per team and may go up (maybe suggesting could be 40M or more?), there will be several types of TV formats (both linear and streaming I assume, but he didn't say), there will be more control over game times (drew applause), SDSU and SMU do not appear to be part of the original TV contract, there may be only a Pac 10, but other programs would be considered once a TV contact was in place, a Pac 8 probably won't make sense, the NCAA is banking on federal law to make NIL uniform on a state to state basis, and no, Stanford will not be coming down to face USC or UCLA, which he realized was problematic for SoCal fans. Muir mixed things up with humor, but I admire the clear, transparent, and forthright approach he took. Probably other stuff I missed. He did not expressly say so, but it was apparent he was saying he thought Furd will be playing in the Pac next year. He did not speak about the Bay Area schools - I suspect he would not see that as appropriate to speak for Cal in a public forum.

Sorry about all the edits, but I keep remembering things. Taylor asked out loud if there would be a Rose Bowl game and did not get a response.

Thanks for the report, WIAF! Am I reading this correctly that Furd will not seek to schedule SC or UCLA if the SoCal schools should approach them? Or is he simply stating that not future matchups are currently scheduled?
Said in the context that alum interaction opportunities would be more difficult, since they would not be playing the LA schools.
calumnus
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wifeisafurd said:

OskiDeLaHoya said:

wifeisafurd said:

philbert said:

wifeisafurd said:

6956bear said:

wifeisafurd said:

It should be interesting as coach and AD swings are starting the next couple of week. Fans will be asking hard questions. Furd is down in the OC tonight with Muir and Coach Taylor.
Truth.
Muir is smooth, but also he was candid. Media is far off on most stuff going on with the Pac conference.

Troy Taylor could not be more different than Wilcox or Shaw. Looking to get a play off on average every 13 seconds. Will generally go for it on forth down, etc. Expect a very aggressive offensive, almost always playing with tempo. Troy is a very high energy speaker, with a joke every 13 seconds or so. My sense was their crowd viewed in quite positively.

I'm sure you don't want to give away confidential info but was he generally optimistic about the future of the Bay Area schools or something else?
He spoke to a large crowd (hundreds), so I don't think anything was confidential.

Suggested a TV deal could take several months to approve, will start somewhere in the 30's per team and may go up (maybe suggesting could be 40M or more?), there will be several types of TV formats (both linear and streaming I assume, but he didn't say), there will be more control over game times (drew applause), SDSU and SMU do not appear to be part of the original TV contract, there may be only a Pac 10, but other programs would be considered once a TV contact was in place, a Pac 8 probably won't make sense, the NCAA is banking on federal law to make NIL uniform on a state to state basis, and no, Stanford will not be coming down to face USC or UCLA, which he realized was problematic for SoCal fans. Muir mixed things up with humor, but I admire the clear, transparent, and forthright approach he took. Probably other stuff I missed. He did not expressly say so, but it was apparent he was saying he thought Furd will be playing in the Pac next year. He did not speak about the Bay Area schools - I suspect he would not see that as appropriate to speak for Cal in a public forum.

Sorry about all the edits, but I keep remembering things. Taylor asked out loud if there would be a Rose Bowl game and did not get a response.

Thanks for the report, WIAF! Am I reading this correctly that Furd will not seek to schedule SC or UCLA if the SoCal schools should approach them? Or is he simply stating that not future matchups are currently scheduled?
Said in the context that alum interaction opportunities would be more difficult, since they would not be playing the LA schools.


Sounds like there was no hint he thinks they (we) are going to the B1G anytime soon, if ever.
6956bear
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wifeisafurd said:

philbert said:

wifeisafurd said:

6956bear said:

wifeisafurd said:

It should be interesting as coach and AD swings are starting the next couple of week. Fans will be asking hard questions. Furd is down in the OC tonight with Muir and Coach Taylor.
Truth.
Muir is smooth, but also he was candid. Media is far off on most stuff going on with the Pac conference.

Troy Taylor could not be more different than Wilcox or Shaw. Looking to get a play off on average every 13 seconds. Will generally go for it on forth down, etc. Expect a very aggressive offensive, almost always playing with tempo. Troy is a very high energy speaker, with a joke every 13 seconds or so. My sense was their crowd viewed in quite positively.

I'm sure you don't want to give away confidential info but was he generally optimistic about the future of the Bay Area schools or something else?
He spoke to a large crowd (hundreds), so I don't think anything was confidential.

Suggested a TV deal could take several months to approve, will start somewhere in the 30's per team and may go up (maybe suggesting could be 40M or more?), there will be several types of TV formats (both linear and streaming I assume, but he didn't say), there will be more control over game times (drew applause), SDSU and SMU do not appear to be part of the original TV contract, there may be only a Pac 10, but other programs would be considered once a TV contact was in place, a Pac 8 probably won't make sense, the NCAA is banking on federal law to make NIL uniform on a state to state basis, and no, Stanford will not be coming down to face USC or UCLA, which he realized was problematic for SoCal fans. Muir mixed things up with humor, but I admire the clear, transparent, and forthright approach he took. Probably other stuff I missed. He did not expressly say so, but it was apparent he was saying he thought Furd will be playing in the Pac next year. He did not speak about the Bay Area schools - I suspect he would not see that as appropriate to speak for Cal in a public forum.

Sorry about all the edits, but I keep remembering things. Taylor asked out loud if there would be a Rose Bowl game and did not get a response.
A TV deal has already taken several months. I have serious doubts the current membership would want to wait several additional months. Stanford may be willing. Cal as well. But if the deal is in the 30's then of course I think the P12 (now P10) would stick together.

A P8 would not make sense. So you could add SMU and SDSU after the fact to get to 10 again if a couple of teams do decide to leave. If those 2 are Colorado and Arizona the TV deal likely still works. But if the 2 are UW and UO the deal likely falls apart. At least at the $30M+ level that Muir suggests. Unless SMU and SDSU come as less than full share members. Maybe much less.

OskiDeLaHoya
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For those of us worried about exposure if Apple TV+ ends up being one of the Pac's partners, Apple resorting to giving away a free month of MLS Season Pass doesn't bode well:


wifeisafurd
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calumnus said:

wifeisafurd said:

OskiDeLaHoya said:

wifeisafurd said:

philbert said:

wifeisafurd said:

6956bear said:

wifeisafurd said:

It should be interesting as coach and AD swings are starting the next couple of week. Fans will be asking hard questions. Furd is down in the OC tonight with Muir and Coach Taylor.
Truth.
Muir is smooth, but also he was candid. Media is far off on most stuff going on with the Pac conference.

Troy Taylor could not be more different than Wilcox or Shaw. Looking to get a play off on average every 13 seconds. Will generally go for it on forth down, etc. Expect a very aggressive offensive, almost always playing with tempo. Troy is a very high energy speaker, with a joke every 13 seconds or so. My sense was their crowd viewed in quite positively.

I'm sure you don't want to give away confidential info but was he generally optimistic about the future of the Bay Area schools or something else?
He spoke to a large crowd (hundreds), so I don't think anything was confidential.

Suggested a TV deal could take several months to approve, will start somewhere in the 30's per team and may go up (maybe suggesting could be 40M or more?), there will be several types of TV formats (both linear and streaming I assume, but he didn't say), there will be more control over game times (drew applause), SDSU and SMU do not appear to be part of the original TV contract, there may be only a Pac 10, but other programs would be considered once a TV contact was in place, a Pac 8 probably won't make sense, the NCAA is banking on federal law to make NIL uniform on a state to state basis, and no, Stanford will not be coming down to face USC or UCLA, which he realized was problematic for SoCal fans. Muir mixed things up with humor, but I admire the clear, transparent, and forthright approach he took. Probably other stuff I missed. He did not expressly say so, but it was apparent he was saying he thought Furd will be playing in the Pac next year. He did not speak about the Bay Area schools - I suspect he would not see that as appropriate to speak for Cal in a public forum.

Sorry about all the edits, but I keep remembering things. Taylor asked out loud if there would be a Rose Bowl game and did not get a response.

Thanks for the report, WIAF! Am I reading this correctly that Furd will not seek to schedule SC or UCLA if the SoCal schools should approach them? Or is he simply stating that not future matchups are currently scheduled?
Said in the context that alum interaction opportunities would be more difficult, since they would not be playing the LA schools.


Sounds like there was no hint he thinks they (we) are going to the B1G anytime soon, if ever.
No hints at all.. I think this was telling his base where he perceives things are presently. My read was he was speaking only for them, which is appropriate given the forum, and the focus was totally on what the Pac could look like. Any coordinated effort with Cal (or any other schools) was not something I would expect be addressed in public. He did not address any schools moving to the B1G other than USC and UCLA.
wifeisafurd
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6956bear said:

wifeisafurd said:

philbert said:

wifeisafurd said:

6956bear said:

wifeisafurd said:

It should be interesting as coach and AD swings are starting the next couple of week. Fans will be asking hard questions. Furd is down in the OC tonight with Muir and Coach Taylor.
Truth.
Muir is smooth, but also he was candid. Media is far off on most stuff going on with the Pac conference.

Troy Taylor could not be more different than Wilcox or Shaw. Looking to get a play off on average every 13 seconds. Will generally go for it on forth down, etc. Expect a very aggressive offensive, almost always playing with tempo. Troy is a very high energy speaker, with a joke every 13 seconds or so. My sense was their crowd viewed in quite positively.

I'm sure you don't want to give away confidential info but was he generally optimistic about the future of the Bay Area schools or something else?
He spoke to a large crowd (hundreds), so I don't think anything was confidential.

Suggested a TV deal could take several months to approve, will start somewhere in the 30's per team and may go up (maybe suggesting could be 40M or more?), there will be several types of TV formats (both linear and streaming I assume, but he didn't say), there will be more control over game times (drew applause), SDSU and SMU do not appear to be part of the original TV contract, there may be only a Pac 10, but other programs would be considered once a TV contact was in place, a Pac 8 probably won't make sense, the NCAA is banking on federal law to make NIL uniform on a state to state basis, and no, Stanford will not be coming down to face USC or UCLA, which he realized was problematic for SoCal fans. Muir mixed things up with humor, but I admire the clear, transparent, and forthright approach he took. Probably other stuff I missed. He did not expressly say so, but it was apparent he was saying he thought Furd will be playing in the Pac next year. He did not speak about the Bay Area schools - I suspect he would not see that as appropriate to speak for Cal in a public forum.

Sorry about all the edits, but I keep remembering things. Taylor asked out loud if there would be a Rose Bowl game and did not get a response.
A TV deal has already taken several months. I have serious doubts the current membership would want to wait several additional months. Stanford may be willing. Cal as well. But if the deal is in the 30's then of course I think the P12 (now P10) would stick together.

A P8 would not make sense. So you could add SMU and SDSU after the fact to get to 10 again if a couple of teams do decide to leave. If those 2 are Colorado and Arizona the TV deal likely still works. But if the 2 are UW and UO the deal likely falls apart. At least at the $30M+ level that Muir suggests. Unless SMU and SDSU come as less than full share members. Maybe much less.


Indeed more than several months.

There is a distinction between knowing major deal terms and when you actually have a full contract that everyone has executed. My impression, and this is not tied to anything Muir said in public, is that deal terms are not set yet. You would think all Pac programs want to see greater clarity and given that SC and UCLA are out the door fairly soon, there has to be some deadline. I can't tell you what that is.
BearSD
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6956bear said:

wifeisafurd said:

philbert said:

wifeisafurd said:

6956bear said:

wifeisafurd said:

It should be interesting as coach and AD swings are starting the next couple of week. Fans will be asking hard questions. Furd is down in the OC tonight with Muir and Coach Taylor.
Truth.
Muir is smooth, but also he was candid. Media is far off on most stuff going on with the Pac conference.

Troy Taylor could not be more different than Wilcox or Shaw. Looking to get a play off on average every 13 seconds. Will generally go for it on forth down, etc. Expect a very aggressive offensive, almost always playing with tempo. Troy is a very high energy speaker, with a joke every 13 seconds or so. My sense was their crowd viewed in quite positively.

I'm sure you don't want to give away confidential info but was he generally optimistic about the future of the Bay Area schools or something else?
He spoke to a large crowd (hundreds), so I don't think anything was confidential.

Suggested a TV deal could take several months to approve, will start somewhere in the 30's per team and may go up (maybe suggesting could be 40M or more?), there will be several types of TV formats (both linear and streaming I assume, but he didn't say), there will be more control over game times (drew applause), SDSU and SMU do not appear to be part of the original TV contract, there may be only a Pac 10, but other programs would be considered once a TV contact was in place, a Pac 8 probably won't make sense, the NCAA is banking on federal law to make NIL uniform on a state to state basis, and no, Stanford will not be coming down to face USC or UCLA, which he realized was problematic for SoCal fans. Muir mixed things up with humor, but I admire the clear, transparent, and forthright approach he took. Probably other stuff I missed. He did not expressly say so, but it was apparent he was saying he thought Furd will be playing in the Pac next year. He did not speak about the Bay Area schools - I suspect he would not see that as appropriate to speak for Cal in a public forum.

Sorry about all the edits, but I keep remembering things. Taylor asked out loud if there would be a Rose Bowl game and did not get a response.
A TV deal has already taken several months. I have serious doubts the current membership would want to wait several additional months. Stanford may be willing. Cal as well. But if the deal is in the 30's then of course I think the P12 (now P10) would stick together.

A P8 would not make sense. So you could add SMU and SDSU after the fact to get to 10 again if a couple of teams do decide to leave. If those 2 are Colorado and Arizona the TV deal likely still works. But if the 2 are UW and UO the deal likely falls apart. At least at the $30M+ level that Muir suggests. Unless SMU and SDSU come as less than full share members. Maybe much less.
Agreed that waiting several more months would be sub-optimal. At some point, someone is going to get cold feet and leave, even if they only get a half-share of Big 12 revenue. The dynamic is awkward because there are 5 schools that think they have at least a shot at future Big Ten membership and 5 other schools that don't.
6956bear
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BearSD said:

6956bear said:

wifeisafurd said:

philbert said:

wifeisafurd said:

6956bear said:

wifeisafurd said:

It should be interesting as coach and AD swings are starting the next couple of week. Fans will be asking hard questions. Furd is down in the OC tonight with Muir and Coach Taylor.
Truth.
Muir is smooth, but also he was candid. Media is far off on most stuff going on with the Pac conference.

Troy Taylor could not be more different than Wilcox or Shaw. Looking to get a play off on average every 13 seconds. Will generally go for it on forth down, etc. Expect a very aggressive offensive, almost always playing with tempo. Troy is a very high energy speaker, with a joke every 13 seconds or so. My sense was their crowd viewed in quite positively.

I'm sure you don't want to give away confidential info but was he generally optimistic about the future of the Bay Area schools or something else?
He spoke to a large crowd (hundreds), so I don't think anything was confidential.

Suggested a TV deal could take several months to approve, will start somewhere in the 30's per team and may go up (maybe suggesting could be 40M or more?), there will be several types of TV formats (both linear and streaming I assume, but he didn't say), there will be more control over game times (drew applause), SDSU and SMU do not appear to be part of the original TV contract, there may be only a Pac 10, but other programs would be considered once a TV contact was in place, a Pac 8 probably won't make sense, the NCAA is banking on federal law to make NIL uniform on a state to state basis, and no, Stanford will not be coming down to face USC or UCLA, which he realized was problematic for SoCal fans. Muir mixed things up with humor, but I admire the clear, transparent, and forthright approach he took. Probably other stuff I missed. He did not expressly say so, but it was apparent he was saying he thought Furd will be playing in the Pac next year. He did not speak about the Bay Area schools - I suspect he would not see that as appropriate to speak for Cal in a public forum.

Sorry about all the edits, but I keep remembering things. Taylor asked out loud if there would be a Rose Bowl game and did not get a response.
A TV deal has already taken several months. I have serious doubts the current membership would want to wait several additional months. Stanford may be willing. Cal as well. But if the deal is in the 30's then of course I think the P12 (now P10) would stick together.

A P8 would not make sense. So you could add SMU and SDSU after the fact to get to 10 again if a couple of teams do decide to leave. If those 2 are Colorado and Arizona the TV deal likely still works. But if the 2 are UW and UO the deal likely falls apart. At least at the $30M+ level that Muir suggests. Unless SMU and SDSU come as less than full share members. Maybe much less.
Agreed that waiting several more months would be sub-optimal. At some point, someone is going to get cold feet and leave, even if they only get a half-share of Big 12 revenue. The dynamic is awkward because there are 5 schools that think they have at least a shot at future Big Ten membership and 5 other schools that don't.
This is big IMO. Everybody wants to be in a P5 level conference. The B1G obviously is that. The Big 12 is as well but not as prestigious on nearly any level. The P12 is for now and is along with the B1G a conference that has combined strong academics and athletics. But that changes if team leave.

It is well known that a couple of the 4 corner schools are considering leaving. They want to stay. But they fear the revenues and exposure will be less than optimal. There have been rumors the B1G wants UW and UO. They do. Not rumors. The timing is more the issue. Along with whatever shares they would receive. Both will be members at some point IMO. Could be 2024 or 2030. But they will be members almost certainly. 2024 seems the most likely. They (B1G) want a west coast pod and need it sooner rather than later.

What happens if they leave? Disaster more than likely. There is no way this conference can stand if UW and UO head to the B1G in 2024. At least a couple of the 4 corner schools would likely leave for the Big 12 at that point. There are but 10 teams now. There are not enough strong programs in the west to comprise a P5 conference if there is that level of movement.

What about Cal and Stanford? They are without doubt B1G schools. Prestigious academics schools. But they do not move the needle much in regards to football. It could go either way. Cal absolutely needs to be in the B1G. Stanford is a little different but that is a conference I believe they would love to be involved with. The question is the B1G. And TV. Will there be any money for them? Both Cal and Stanford have been remarkably quiet during this TV negotiation. Do they know something others don't? The only thing that is keeping Cal and Stanford from being a sure thing to the B1G IMO is football and eyeballs. They have everything else. But realignment is as much a TV deal as anything. The money is coming from TV networks not the B1G presidents. That would be the only reason Oregon is a consideration. They are a MWC school if not for Phil Knight and Nike. That arrangement has brought them athletic success and fandom. Without Knight they are Boise St.

And what about Utah? They are not in Cal or Stanfords league in regards to academics, but are consistently getting better and have shown well in football. There likely is some support in the B1G for Utah. They will land somewhere but if realignment happens in 2024 they may have to go Big 12. Cal and Stanford want no part of the Big 12 IMO.

As you note there are programs that likely have no appeal to the B1G. OSU, WSU UA, ASU and Colorado for sure. Utah is a maybe. OSU and WSU almost certainly end up in the MWC if theP12 collapses. They go from P5 to G5 overnight. The B1G is the destination. I think the P12 can survive short term but something needs to happen very soon. If the B1G is ready to add UW and UO it may not matter. They would have to accept that invitation.

My only real concern is Cal. Will they get that invite as well?
CAL4LIFE
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Personally, I believe the demise of the Pac (pick a number) is inevitable. After the B1G/ACC alliance debacle fell, George Kliavkoff has disappeared behind a curtain of unending media deal negotiations that energize no one.

I agree that the B1G needs a west coast pod. I also agree that Udub and UO will bolt as soon as they are offered. After that it's dominos.

So to me Cal's viability to maintain P5 consideration w/ the B1G rests squarely on their ability to show signs of life in both major revenue sports for '23-24. Thus, the reason we see so many changes in approach by Cal w/ Wilcox changing his philosophical course offensively, the ground swell NIL push + portal emphasis, and the new high energy Madsen era in hoops.

Cal has been on life support for far too long yet still has a faint pulse.

It now comes down to game day execution and becoming unavoidable (relevant again) in the national conversation.

As I have said on these forums from the beginning of their inception: the only thing that prevents Cal from being successful in revenue athletics is Cal.

It's literally their last chance to get it right.

6956bear
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CAL4LIFE said:

Cal's viability to maintain P5 consideration w/ the B1G rests squarely on their ability to show signs of life in both major revenue sports for '23-24. Thus, the reason we see so many changes in approach by Cal w/ Wilcox changing his philosophical course offensively, the ground swell NIL push + portal emphasis, and the new high energy Madsen era in hoops.

Cal has been on life supports for far too long yet still has a pulse.

Now it comes down to game day execution and becoming unavoidable (relevant again) in the national conversation.

As I have said on these forums from the beginning of their inception: the only thing that prevents Cal from being successful in revenue athletics is Cal.

It's literally their last chance to get it right.


There is a lot of truth in this. If UW and UO do leave for 2024 that could be the catalyst for Cal to get an invite. For all the negativity around Cal athletics they do sit in a lucrative market and the number of B1G alums here is quite large. But Cal needs to give the B1G (and TV) a reason to believe.

IMO there is no logical reason for the B1G if they are considering more western expansion to exclude the Bay Area. But Cal needs to win, attract fans to the stadium and show some eyeballs when they play on TV. The TV problem is many games will be on P12 network due to years and years of ineptitude on the field.

The revenue teams are showing some life. Mens hoops in particular. But they have a long history of poor play and unless the B1G delays expansion and the P12 gets a deal it may not matter what they do in 2023. At least for getting an invite to the B1G.

But the bolded sentence above is a big concern. I see a few recent things that give me some hope, but the history is long and not great. My big hope is they have been advised they would be invited but need to see an investment that shows some level of seriousness.
mbBear
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6956bear said:

CAL4LIFE said:

Cal's viability to maintain P5 consideration w/ the B1G rests squarely on their ability to show signs of life in both major revenue sports for '23-24. Thus, the reason we see so many changes in approach by Cal w/ Wilcox changing his philosophical course offensively, the ground swell NIL push + portal emphasis, and the new high energy Madsen era in hoops.

Cal has been on life supports for far too long yet still has a pulse.

Now it comes down to game day execution and becoming unavoidable (relevant again) in the national conversation.

As I have said on these forums from the beginning of their inception: the only thing that prevents Cal from being successful in revenue athletics is Cal.

It's literally their last chance to get it right.


There is a lot of truth in this. If UW and UO do leave for 2024 that could be the catalyst for Cal to get an invite. For all the negativity around Cal athletics they do sit in a lucrative market and the number of B1G alums here is quite large. But Cal needs to give the B1G (and TV) a reason to believe.

IMO there is no logical reason for the B1G if they are considering more western expansion to exclude the Bay Area. But Cal needs to win, attract fans to the stadium and show some eyeballs when they play on TV. The TV problem is many games will be on P12 network due to years and years of ineptitude on the field.

The revenue teams are showing some life. Mens hoops in particular. But they have a long history of poor play and unless the B1G delays expansion and the P12 gets a deal it may not matter what they do in 2023. At least for getting an invite to the B1G.

But the bolded sentence above is a big concern. I see a few recent things that give me some hope, but the history is long and not great. My big hope is they have been advised they would be invited but need to see an investment that shows some level of seriousness.
All sounds like wishful thinking to me. The Big "needing" a West coast division, pod, whatever term you want to use-show them where it makes them more money, and then they will figure out the "need."
That Cal can somehow act in such a way in the short term that shows potential to make the Big money in the medium or long terms is beyond my pay grade for sure. That further expansion is needed for the Big, adding more slices to the pie (meaning splitting the money) is incredibly hopeful. They didn't do only SC and UCLA just to be polite...there wasn't an immediate need seen by them....and okay, if that's not right, then what's the hold up? Because behind the scenes schools have been turning them down? Right, I don't believe that either.
"Cal didn't do this, Cal didn't do that, it's Cal's own fault"....come on, the Pac-12, thanks to Larry Scott first and foremost(and Kliavkoff a little), didn't see this coming and got crushed...I don't think for a second that, even if Cal has a miracle football season, the Big is going to be begging them to join...okay, I will leave the door open slightly hoping that Cal can show the conference that, in the long term, things are now set up differently, so the future is brighter (and "brighter" means more lucrative for all)....but I had to slide Blue and Gold classes on for that sentence...
OskiDeLaHoya
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mbBear said:

6956bear said:

CAL4LIFE said:

Cal's viability to maintain P5 consideration w/ the B1G rests squarely on their ability to show signs of life in both major revenue sports for '23-24. Thus, the reason we see so many changes in approach by Cal w/ Wilcox changing his philosophical course offensively, the ground swell NIL push + portal emphasis, and the new high energy Madsen era in hoops.

Cal has been on life supports for far too long yet still has a pulse.

Now it comes down to game day execution and becoming unavoidable (relevant again) in the national conversation.

As I have said on these forums from the beginning of their inception: the only thing that prevents Cal from being successful in revenue athletics is Cal.

It's literally their last chance to get it right.


There is a lot of truth in this. If UW and UO do leave for 2024 that could be the catalyst for Cal to get an invite. For all the negativity around Cal athletics they do sit in a lucrative market and the number of B1G alums here is quite large. But Cal needs to give the B1G (and TV) a reason to believe.

IMO there is no logical reason for the B1G if they are considering more western expansion to exclude the Bay Area. But Cal needs to win, attract fans to the stadium and show some eyeballs when they play on TV. The TV problem is many games will be on P12 network due to years and years of ineptitude on the field.

The revenue teams are showing some life. Mens hoops in particular. But they have a long history of poor play and unless the B1G delays expansion and the P12 gets a deal it may not matter what they do in 2023. At least for getting an invite to the B1G.

But the bolded sentence above is a big concern. I see a few recent things that give me some hope, but the history is long and not great. My big hope is they have been advised they would be invited but need to see an investment that shows some level of seriousness.
All sounds like wishful thinking to me. The Big "needing" a West coast division, pod, whatever term you want to use-show them where it makes them more money, and then they will figure out the "need."
That Cal can somehow act in such a way in the short term that shows potential to make the Big money in the medium or long terms is beyond my pay grade for sure. That further expansion is needed for the Big, adding more slices to the pie (meaning splitting the money) is incredibly hopeful. They didn't do only SC and UCLA just to be polite...there wasn't an immediate need seen by them....and okay, if that's not right, then what's the hold up? Because behind the scenes schools have been turning them down? Right, I don't believe that either.
"Cal didn't do this, Cal didn't do that, it's Cal's own fault"....come on, the Pac-12, thanks to Larry Scott first and foremost(and Kliavkoff a little), didn't see this coming and got crushed...I don't think for a second that, even if Cal has a miracle football season, the Big is going to be begging them to join...okay, I will leave the door open slightly hoping that Cal can show the conference that, in the long term, things are now set up differently, so the future is brighter (and "brighter" means more lucrative for all)....but I had to slide Blue and Gold classes on for that sentence...



My personal opinion is that the argument that the "B1G doesn't want to leave USC/UCLA on an island" is very real. Folks are truly underestimating the impact that cross-country travel will have on those two schools. Some have argued that they will make the travel work with chartered flights, creative scheduling and a Midwestern campus for athletes. Not to mention a second set of equipment trucks being stored in the Midwest as well.

That all may be true and they very well might make it work. But what I think this ignores is the severe competitive disadvantage the LA schools will find themselves in. When they eventually compare the average miles their athletes log to those of their B1G foes, it's inevitable that there will be a big disparity. That will get old very quick. And I expect the LA schools to push for West Coast schools before long. And the B1G will no doubt listen. They have a strong interest in making this work and protecting their LA investment. The last thing they want is for either school to have even a hint of regret.
BearSD
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mbBear said:

6956bear said:




"Cal didn't do this, Cal didn't do that, it's Cal's own fault"....come on, the Pac-12, thanks to Larry Scott first and foremost(and Kliavkoff a little), didn't see this coming and got crushed..
The Pac presidents and ADs should have seen it coming, though even with USC/UCLA in the Pac there was nothing they could do to reach revenue parity with the Big Ten/SEC.

It's been almost three years since USC's AD first said publicly that the revenue gap was unacceptable to USC and that USC wanted to talk to the Big Ten. No one took it seriously because "C'mon, it's 2,000 miles from LA to Chicago!"
Bobodeluxe
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These are professional athletes. The travel inconveniences are trivial, as long as the schools realize that education matters little to many getting paid to play. Think of USC as it has been for decades.
wifeisafurd
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Bobodeluxe said:

These are professional athletes. The travel inconveniences are trivial, as long as the schools realize that education matters little to many getting paid to play. Think of USC as it has been for decades.
So when is the last time you heard football coaches spend a lot of time talking about APR?
mbBear
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BearSD said:

mbBear said:



"Cal didn't do this, Cal didn't do that, it's Cal's own fault"....come on, the Pac-12, thanks to Larry Scott first and foremost(and Kliavkoff a little), didn't see this coming and got crushed..
The Pac presidents and ADs should have seen it coming, though even with USC/UCLA in the Pac there was nothing they could do to reach revenue parity with the Big Ten/SEC.

It's been almost three years since USC's AD first said publicly that the revenue gap was unacceptable to USC and that USC wanted to talk to the Big Ten. No one took it seriously because "C'mon, it's 2,000 miles from LA to Chicago!"
Right....like money wasn't going to be the bottom line.
6956bear
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mbBear said:

6956bear said:

CAL4LIFE said:

Cal's viability to maintain P5 consideration w/ the B1G rests squarely on their ability to show signs of life in both major revenue sports for '23-24. Thus, the reason we see so many changes in approach by Cal w/ Wilcox changing his philosophical course offensively, the ground swell NIL push + portal emphasis, and the new high energy Madsen era in hoops.

Cal has been on life supports for far too long yet still has a pulse.

Now it comes down to game day execution and becoming unavoidable (relevant again) in the national conversation.

As I have said on these forums from the beginning of their inception: the only thing that prevents Cal from being successful in revenue athletics is Cal.

It's literally their last chance to get it right.


There is a lot of truth in this. If UW and UO do leave for 2024 that could be the catalyst for Cal to get an invite. For all the negativity around Cal athletics they do sit in a lucrative market and the number of B1G alums here is quite large. But Cal needs to give the B1G (and TV) a reason to believe.

IMO there is no logical reason for the B1G if they are considering more western expansion to exclude the Bay Area. But Cal needs to win, attract fans to the stadium and show some eyeballs when they play on TV. The TV problem is many games will be on P12 network due to years and years of ineptitude on the field.

The revenue teams are showing some life. Mens hoops in particular. But they have a long history of poor play and unless the B1G delays expansion and the P12 gets a deal it may not matter what they do in 2023. At least for getting an invite to the B1G.

But the bolded sentence above is a big concern. I see a few recent things that give me some hope, but the history is long and not great. My big hope is they have been advised they would be invited but need to see an investment that shows some level of seriousness.
All sounds like wishful thinking to me. The Big "needing" a West coast division, pod, whatever term you want to use-show them where it makes them more money, and then they will figure out the "need."
That Cal can somehow act in such a way in the short term that shows potential to make the Big money in the medium or long terms is beyond my pay grade for sure. That further expansion is needed for the Big, adding more slices to the pie (meaning splitting the money) is incredibly hopeful. They didn't do only SC and UCLA just to be polite...there wasn't an immediate need seen by them....and okay, if that's not right, then what's the hold up? Because behind the scenes schools have been turning them down? Right, I don't believe that either.
"Cal didn't do this, Cal didn't do that, it's Cal's own fault"....come on, the Pac-12, thanks to Larry Scott first and foremost(and Kliavkoff a little), didn't see this coming and got crushed...I don't think for a second that, even if Cal has a miracle football season, the Big is going to be begging them to join...okay, I will leave the door open slightly hoping that Cal can show the conference that, in the long term, things are now set up differently, so the future is brighter (and "brighter" means more lucrative for all)....but I had to slide Blue and Gold classes on for that sentence...

The B1G does not "need" a west coast pod. But they do want one. But yes there is a price. The recent news regarding UO and UW heading to B1G for 2024 is due to the networks agreeing to pay a bit more to add these teams. Fox, NBC and CBS it is being "reported" have agreed to chip in a bit more each to pay for the move.

The B1G wants to be a true coast to coast conference. Most believe that if the B1G adds those 2 it will be at reduced shares for now. So no current B1G school needs to take a pay cut to add these teams. The B1G network also wants to sell subscritions. They feel that Seattle is a good market for that as Portland may be as well. The networks likely feel strong advertising revenues may be available by being a true every time zone conference.

The Bay Area makes sense for this as well. But the local programs have not shown a great apetite to watch the locals on TV. So there likely would need to be an additional provider to add Cal and Stanford.

The strategy also is to be positioned for what seems to be the inevitable creation of a Super Division of college football. Adding UW and UO helps in that area. The Bay Area may be as well.

The western pod is not just a football thing. Teams will need to travel for the other sports. Like hoops, baseball and volleyball (which is a big sport in the B1G). So it looks to me like the B1G is adding where they can now. Western teams are available now. The P12 media contract ends at the end of the 2023-2024 schedule. There are other benefits as well. B1G alums in the P12 markets are many. They may very well contribute more via donations as their teams now play in their current living market. Recruiting improves. And while these schools can and do work together now on research and other things, conference affiliaiton strengthens those alliances and more monies are generated for research etc. Ask Utah President about that. They have seen applications, research money and donations increase by being affiliated with the P12 conference.

It is not just about sports. But sure sports performance does matter. The Networks will be paying for any expansion so you have to have a pulse and make an effort to put forth a product people will watch. But sure the money matters. But the money need not come just from the games themselves. But you will almost certainly see attendance improve. A Cal game vs OSU or UA will draw maybe 40,000 if Cal is any good. What do you think a Cal vs Ohio St or Penn St or Michigan or even Nebraska would draw?

Lots of reasons to be a coast to coast conference. If the only consideration was on field results Cal would have no chance at the B1G. But the B1G having every P5 program in California is a big deal IMO. As would having a piece of every time slot available on a typical college football Saturday. My guess is a 7:30PST game between say UW and Stanford or Cal would draw better than any Big 12 matchup. Why? Because now these west coast games matter to B1G fans where before they could care less.
calumnus
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6956bear said:

mbBear said:

6956bear said:

CAL4LIFE said:

Cal's viability to maintain P5 consideration w/ the B1G rests squarely on their ability to show signs of life in both major revenue sports for '23-24. Thus, the reason we see so many changes in approach by Cal w/ Wilcox changing his philosophical course offensively, the ground swell NIL push + portal emphasis, and the new high energy Madsen era in hoops.

Cal has been on life supports for far too long yet still has a pulse.

Now it comes down to game day execution and becoming unavoidable (relevant again) in the national conversation.

As I have said on these forums from the beginning of their inception: the only thing that prevents Cal from being successful in revenue athletics is Cal.

It's literally their last chance to get it right.


There is a lot of truth in this. If UW and UO do leave for 2024 that could be the catalyst for Cal to get an invite. For all the negativity around Cal athletics they do sit in a lucrative market and the number of B1G alums here is quite large. But Cal needs to give the B1G (and TV) a reason to believe.

IMO there is no logical reason for the B1G if they are considering more western expansion to exclude the Bay Area. But Cal needs to win, attract fans to the stadium and show some eyeballs when they play on TV. The TV problem is many games will be on P12 network due to years and years of ineptitude on the field.

The revenue teams are showing some life. Mens hoops in particular. But they have a long history of poor play and unless the B1G delays expansion and the P12 gets a deal it may not matter what they do in 2023. At least for getting an invite to the B1G.

But the bolded sentence above is a big concern. I see a few recent things that give me some hope, but the history is long and not great. My big hope is they have been advised they would be invited but need to see an investment that shows some level of seriousness.
All sounds like wishful thinking to me. The Big "needing" a West coast division, pod, whatever term you want to use-show them where it makes them more money, and then they will figure out the "need."
That Cal can somehow act in such a way in the short term that shows potential to make the Big money in the medium or long terms is beyond my pay grade for sure. That further expansion is needed for the Big, adding more slices to the pie (meaning splitting the money) is incredibly hopeful. They didn't do only SC and UCLA just to be polite...there wasn't an immediate need seen by them....and okay, if that's not right, then what's the hold up? Because behind the scenes schools have been turning them down? Right, I don't believe that either.
"Cal didn't do this, Cal didn't do that, it's Cal's own fault"....come on, the Pac-12, thanks to Larry Scott first and foremost(and Kliavkoff a little), didn't see this coming and got crushed...I don't think for a second that, even if Cal has a miracle football season, the Big is going to be begging them to join...okay, I will leave the door open slightly hoping that Cal can show the conference that, in the long term, things are now set up differently, so the future is brighter (and "brighter" means more lucrative for all)....but I had to slide Blue and Gold classes on for that sentence...

The B1G does not "need" a west coast pod. But they do want one. But yes there is a price. The recent news regarding UO and UW heading to B1G for 2024 is due to the networks agreeing to pay a bit more to add these teams. Fox, NBC and CBS it is being "reported" have agreed to chip in a bit more each to pay for the move.

The B1G wants to be a true coast to coast conference. Most believe that if the B1G adds those 2 it will be at reduced shares for now. So no current B1G school needs to take a pay cut to add these teams. The B1G network also wants to sell subscritions. They feel that Seattle is a good market for that as Portland may be as well. The networks likely feel strong advertising revenues may be available by being a true every time zone conference.

The Bay Area makes sense for this as well. But the local programs have not shown a great apetite to watch the locals on TV. So there likely would need to be an additional provider to add Cal and Stanford.

The strategy also is to be positioned for what seems to be the inevitable creation of a Super Division of college football. Adding UW and UO helps in that area. The Bay Area may be as well.

The western pod is not just a football thing. Teams will need to travel for the other sports. Like hoops, baseball and volleyball (which is a big sport in the B1G). So it looks to me like the B1G is adding where they can now. Western teams are available now. The P12 media contract ends at the end of the 2023-2024 schedule. There are other benefits as well. B1G alums in the P12 markets are many. They may very well contribute more via donations as their teams now play in their current living market. Recruiting improves. And while these schools can and do work together now on research and other things, conference affiliaiton strengthens those alliances and more monies are generated for research etc. Ask Utah President about that. They have seen applications, research money and donations increase by being affiliated with the P12 conference.

It is not just about sports. But sure sports performance does matter. The Networks will be paying for any expansion so you have to have a pulse and make an effort to put forth a product people will watch. But sure the money matters. But the money need not come just from the games themselves. But you will almost certainly see attendance improve. A Cal game vs OSU or UA will draw maybe 40,000 if Cal is any good. What do you think a Cal vs Ohio St or Penn St or Michigan or even Nebraska would draw?

Lots of reasons to be a coast to coast conference. If the only consideration was on field results Cal would have no chance at the B1G. But the B1G having every P5 program in California is a big deal IMO. As would having a piece of every time slot available on a typical college football Saturday. My guess is a 7:30PST game between say UW and Stanford or Cal would draw better than any Big 12 matchup. Why? Because now these west coast games matter to B1G fans where before they could care less.


Exactly. In the big picture, Cal and Stanford make even more sense than UW and Oregon in the B1G. If we are not in the conversation, it is only due to the incompetence of Jim Knowlton (and Carol Christ). As I have been saying since he was hired, he was a horrible hire, is a horrible fit, especially at this critical time in the history of college athletics, and we will be lucky if we still have an athletics program when he is done. The fact Christ gave him an unprecedented 8 year extension after he made that incompetence obvious makes her entirely culpable.
Econ141
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calumnus said:

6956bear said:

mbBear said:

6956bear said:

CAL4LIFE said:

Cal's viability to maintain P5 consideration w/ the B1G rests squarely on their ability to show signs of life in both major revenue sports for '23-24. Thus, the reason we see so many changes in approach by Cal w/ Wilcox changing his philosophical course offensively, the ground swell NIL push + portal emphasis, and the new high energy Madsen era in hoops.

Cal has been on life supports for far too long yet still has a pulse.

Now it comes down to game day execution and becoming unavoidable (relevant again) in the national conversation.

As I have said on these forums from the beginning of their inception: the only thing that prevents Cal from being successful in revenue athletics is Cal.

It's literally their last chance to get it right.


There is a lot of truth in this. If UW and UO do leave for 2024 that could be the catalyst for Cal to get an invite. For all the negativity around Cal athletics they do sit in a lucrative market and the number of B1G alums here is quite large. But Cal needs to give the B1G (and TV) a reason to believe.

IMO there is no logical reason for the B1G if they are considering more western expansion to exclude the Bay Area. But Cal needs to win, attract fans to the stadium and show some eyeballs when they play on TV. The TV problem is many games will be on P12 network due to years and years of ineptitude on the field.

The revenue teams are showing some life. Mens hoops in particular. But they have a long history of poor play and unless the B1G delays expansion and the P12 gets a deal it may not matter what they do in 2023. At least for getting an invite to the B1G.

But the bolded sentence above is a big concern. I see a few recent things that give me some hope, but the history is long and not great. My big hope is they have been advised they would be invited but need to see an investment that shows some level of seriousness.
All sounds like wishful thinking to me. The Big "needing" a West coast division, pod, whatever term you want to use-show them where it makes them more money, and then they will figure out the "need."
That Cal can somehow act in such a way in the short term that shows potential to make the Big money in the medium or long terms is beyond my pay grade for sure. That further expansion is needed for the Big, adding more slices to the pie (meaning splitting the money) is incredibly hopeful. They didn't do only SC and UCLA just to be polite...there wasn't an immediate need seen by them....and okay, if that's not right, then what's the hold up? Because behind the scenes schools have been turning them down? Right, I don't believe that either.
"Cal didn't do this, Cal didn't do that, it's Cal's own fault"....come on, the Pac-12, thanks to Larry Scott first and foremost(and Kliavkoff a little), didn't see this coming and got crushed...I don't think for a second that, even if Cal has a miracle football season, the Big is going to be begging them to join...okay, I will leave the door open slightly hoping that Cal can show the conference that, in the long term, things are now set up differently, so the future is brighter (and "brighter" means more lucrative for all)....but I had to slide Blue and Gold classes on for that sentence...

The B1G does not "need" a west coast pod. But they do want one. But yes there is a price. The recent news regarding UO and UW heading to B1G for 2024 is due to the networks agreeing to pay a bit more to add these teams. Fox, NBC and CBS it is being "reported" have agreed to chip in a bit more each to pay for the move.

The B1G wants to be a true coast to coast conference. Most believe that if the B1G adds those 2 it will be at reduced shares for now. So no current B1G school needs to take a pay cut to add these teams. The B1G network also wants to sell subscritions. They feel that Seattle is a good market for that as Portland may be as well. The networks likely feel strong advertising revenues may be available by being a true every time zone conference.

The Bay Area makes sense for this as well. But the local programs have not shown a great apetite to watch the locals on TV. So there likely would need to be an additional provider to add Cal and Stanford.

The strategy also is to be positioned for what seems to be the inevitable creation of a Super Division of college football. Adding UW and UO helps in that area. The Bay Area may be as well.

The western pod is not just a football thing. Teams will need to travel for the other sports. Like hoops, baseball and volleyball (which is a big sport in the B1G). So it looks to me like the B1G is adding where they can now. Western teams are available now. The P12 media contract ends at the end of the 2023-2024 schedule. There are other benefits as well. B1G alums in the P12 markets are many. They may very well contribute more via donations as their teams now play in their current living market. Recruiting improves. And while these schools can and do work together now on research and other things, conference affiliaiton strengthens those alliances and more monies are generated for research etc. Ask Utah President about that. They have seen applications, research money and donations increase by being affiliated with the P12 conference.

It is not just about sports. But sure sports performance does matter. The Networks will be paying for any expansion so you have to have a pulse and make an effort to put forth a product people will watch. But sure the money matters. But the money need not come just from the games themselves. But you will almost certainly see attendance improve. A Cal game vs OSU or UA will draw maybe 40,000 if Cal is any good. What do you think a Cal vs Ohio St or Penn St or Michigan or even Nebraska would draw?

Lots of reasons to be a coast to coast conference. If the only consideration was on field results Cal would have no chance at the B1G. But the B1G having every P5 program in California is a big deal IMO. As would having a piece of every time slot available on a typical college football Saturday. My guess is a 7:30PST game between say UW and Stanford or Cal would draw better than any Big 12 matchup. Why? Because now these west coast games matter to B1G fans where before they could care less.


Exactly. In the big picture, Cal and Stanford make even more sense than UW and Oregon in the B1G. If we are not in the conversation, it is only due to the incompetence of Jim Knowlton (and Carol Christ). As I have been saying since he was hired, he was a horrible hire, is a horrible fit, especially at this critical time in the history of college athletics, and we will be lucky if we still have an athletics program when he is done.


100% these two have a HUGE role if we don't make it to the super league. If you can't sell what Cal has to offer, you should not be even 100 miles near the campus let alone hold a job there.
BigDaddy
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6956bear said:

mbBear said:

6956bear said:

CAL4LIFE said:

Cal's viability to maintain P5 consideration w/ the B1G rests squarely on their ability to show signs of life in both major revenue sports for '23-24. Thus, the reason we see so many changes in approach by Cal w/ Wilcox changing his philosophical course offensively, the ground swell NIL push + portal emphasis, and the new high energy Madsen era in hoops.

Cal has been on life supports for far too long yet still has a pulse.

Now it comes down to game day execution and becoming unavoidable (relevant again) in the national conversation.

As I have said on these forums from the beginning of their inception: the only thing that prevents Cal from being successful in revenue athletics is Cal.

It's literally their last chance to get it right.


There is a lot of truth in this. If UW and UO do leave for 2024 that could be the catalyst for Cal to get an invite. For all the negativity around Cal athletics they do sit in a lucrative market and the number of B1G alums here is quite large. But Cal needs to give the B1G (and TV) a reason to believe.

IMO there is no logical reason for the B1G if they are considering more western expansion to exclude the Bay Area. But Cal needs to win, attract fans to the stadium and show some eyeballs when they play on TV. The TV problem is many games will be on P12 network due to years and years of ineptitude on the field.

The revenue teams are showing some life. Mens hoops in particular. But they have a long history of poor play and unless the B1G delays expansion and the P12 gets a deal it may not matter what they do in 2023. At least for getting an invite to the B1G.

But the bolded sentence above is a big concern. I see a few recent things that give me some hope, but the history is long and not great. My big hope is they have been advised they would be invited but need to see an investment that shows some level of seriousness.
All sounds like wishful thinking to me. The Big "needing" a West coast division, pod, whatever term you want to use-show them where it makes them more money, and then they will figure out the "need."
That Cal can somehow act in such a way in the short term that shows potential to make the Big money in the medium or long terms is beyond my pay grade for sure. That further expansion is needed for the Big, adding more slices to the pie (meaning splitting the money) is incredibly hopeful. They didn't do only SC and UCLA just to be polite...there wasn't an immediate need seen by them....and okay, if that's not right, then what's the hold up? Because behind the scenes schools have been turning them down? Right, I don't believe that either.
"Cal didn't do this, Cal didn't do that, it's Cal's own fault"....come on, the Pac-12, thanks to Larry Scott first and foremost(and Kliavkoff a little), didn't see this coming and got crushed...I don't think for a second that, even if Cal has a miracle football season, the Big is going to be begging them to join...okay, I will leave the door open slightly hoping that Cal can show the conference that, in the long term, things are now set up differently, so the future is brighter (and "brighter" means more lucrative for all)....but I had to slide Blue and Gold classes on for that sentence...

The B1G does not "need" a west coast pod. But they do want one. But yes there is a price. The recent news regarding UO and UW heading to B1G for 2024 is due to the networks agreeing to pay a bit more to add these teams. Fox, NBC and CBS it is being "reported" have agreed to chip in a bit more each to pay for the move.

The B1G wants to be a true coast to coast conference. Most believe that if the B1G adds those 2 it will be at reduced shares for now. So no current B1G school needs to take a pay cut to add these teams. The B1G network also wants to sell subscritions. They feel that Seattle is a good market for that as Portland may be as well. The networks likely feel strong advertising revenues may be available by being a true every time zone conference.

The Bay Area makes sense for this as well. But the local programs have not shown a great apetite to watch the locals on TV. So there likely would need to be an additional provider to add Cal and Stanford.

The strategy also is to be positioned for what seems to be the inevitable creation of a Super Division of college football. Adding UW and UO helps in that area. The Bay Area may be as well.

The western pod is not just a football thing. Teams will need to travel for the other sports. Like hoops, baseball and volleyball (which is a big sport in the B1G). So it looks to me like the B1G is adding where they can now. Western teams are available now. The P12 media contract ends at the end of the 2023-2024 schedule. There are other benefits as well. B1G alums in the P12 markets are many. They may very well contribute more via donations as their teams now play in their current living market. Recruiting improves. And while these schools can and do work together now on research and other things, conference affiliaiton strengthens those alliances and more monies are generated for research etc. Ask Utah President about that. They have seen applications, research money and donations increase by being affiliated with the P12 conference.

It is not just about sports. But sure sports performance does matter. The Networks will be paying for any expansion so you have to have a pulse and make an effort to put forth a product people will watch. But sure the money matters. But the money need not come just from the games themselves. But you will almost certainly see attendance improve. A Cal game vs OSU or UA will draw maybe 40,000 if Cal is any good. What do you think a Cal vs Ohio St or Penn St or Michigan or even Nebraska would draw?

Lots of reasons to be a coast to coast conference. If the only consideration was on field results Cal would have no chance at the B1G. But the B1G having every P5 program in California is a big deal IMO. As would having a piece of every time slot available on a typical college football Saturday. My guess is a 7:30PST game between say UW and Stanford or Cal would draw better than any Big 12 matchup. Why? Because now these west coast games matter to B1G fans where before they could care less.
We don't have to imagine what Ohio State vs. Cal could draw, even with a bad Cal team. We literally saw that not too long ago in 2013 when Ohio State fans took over Memorial Stadium. Granted, who knows how things might change if this match-up is more routine but I'd guess the only thing that changes is the balance of Cal vs. Ohio State fans as it seems clear there was interest from Ohio State fans to show up to a game in Berkeley.


 
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