Final Election Prediction

105,369 Views | 1183 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by concordtom
dajo9
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Put them here for posterity and future bragging rights or being shamed.

I've got Biden with a 7% PV margin and winning the Electoral College 323 - 215.

In my view, there are 6 battleground states (AZ, FL, GA, NC, PA, TX) and Biden only needs one of them to win. I think Trump gets FL and TX.

The story of the election will be youth turnout and a surge in college educated whites, relative to non-college whites combining to give Biden a decisive victory and mandate.
BearForce2
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dajo9 said:

The story of the election will be youth turnout and a surge in college educated whites, relative to non-college whites combining to give Biden a decisive victory and mandate.

No Russians this time? Where did the Russians go?

Or will the story of the election will be voter fraud and a surge in peaceful rioters and looters turnout combining to give Biden a decisive victory and mandate?

The difference between a right wing conspiracy and the truth is about 20 months.
smh
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don't hex us (just wiin baby) 2010 grab..
sycasey
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It'll probably go about as the 538 averages have it. I think Biden wins by about 8 points nationally and gets MI, WI, PA, AZ, NC (and the Nebraska 2nd district). FL is a 50/50 shot as usual. TX is closer than you'd expect and could flip if the polls are undercounting Dems. Not sure what to make of GA, I guess it's similar to TX in that it could flip in a big wave (say Biden wins by double digits).
smh
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words to live by "it's not over till it's over" and sometimes not even then..


blungld
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1) Biden wins one shocker state: Texas, Florida, AZ, Georgia...? He also takes Pennsylvania which makes it nearly impossible for Trump to win.

2) Trump announces that he has won and goes so far as to try and disqualify the results, dubs his loss a coup, and calls for the militarized police and white militias to take to the streets to save the republic. We have a few scary days and there are very unfortunate acts of violence as a result of Trump's pronouncements.

3) But FINALLY, the writing is on the wall, and a tide of GOP members of Congress (who may have lost the Senate but do no better than 50-50) try to save their own reputations and redefine the party and there is massive massive disowning of Trump.

4) Once GOP members disown Trump, his attempts to turn this to a court-driven electoral victory unravels and the huge popular vote and undeniable electoral college margin by Biden leads to his official victory before Thanksgiving.

5) A lost Trump doesn't seem to have the same spell over his followers. Yes, the ardent 20% are furious and ready to still follow him anywhere and kill Liberals if necessary, but the average American conservative is done with him and the emperor finally has no clothes and looks a fool to the nation. His tweets are seen as absurd as the country now openly admits that the last four years were an embarrassment and the closest we have been to the destruction of our Constitutional ideals.

6) Biden starts to govern even as a lame duck as Trump abandons all leadership and preoccupies himself with a scorched earth policy attempting to escape legal consequence when he leaves office. He fires anyone he sees as possibly having dirt on him, tries to leave Biden with dysfunctional Trump loyal government, takes final attempts at profiting off of public service, destroys evidence, and works Barr relentlessly to end investigations and cover up.

7) Trump either flees the country or tries an elaborate self-pardon ploy (and perhaps resigns hours before Biden sworn in and has Pence pardon him). His ploys do not work and he either is eventually convicted and jailed, or makes an escape to another country and watches as his reputation, business empire, and health disintegrate. He is dead in less than 5 years and the Trump name is a black stain on America for decades that is spoken with the same contempt as Hitler in Germany.Trump's legacy is the worst president ever and a wake up call and cautionary tale. Ironically his sociopathology gives rise to a new social consciousness in America and a recommitment to our ideals.

8) Biden is sworn in and DOES have the largest crowd in history and the day feels like the country shedding its skin. There is a huge tearful sigh of relief. Parties in the streets. It is the closest thing to the end of WWII with people kissing strangers and we feel like a healing, unifying country again almost immediately. Every person attempts to disavow any connection to Trump, but there is too much of a public record and many many Americans need to work to repair their reputation and open their eyes to what they enabled.

9) The GOP acts like the last four years didn't happen and they will instantly be against deficits and will proclaim themselves as the ethical moral patriotic party and swear to roadblock Biden at every turn--but this doesn't work this time. Biden landslide win, public revulsion of them, and political clout steamrolls the GOP and Biden works to address election reform, limits on the executive, a purge of all things Trump, and yes he allows Trump and his cronies to face the music and prosecution. It is ugly the amount of crime and corruption that is uncovered and many end up in jail.

10) The GOP thinks they can follow the same obstructionist playbook with the support of a slobbering right wing media, but this too does not work as before and just looks pathetic. The Boomers are old and dying and the demographic shift happens and we see 12 years of Democratic leadership that finally moves from center to progressive intelligent left and we see something that looks like a New Deal 2 with health insurance becoming a right, true climate action, tax reform that addresses income inequality, controls placed on oligarchy and monopoly, an internet bill of rights which collectively repositions America again as a beacon of decency and "democracy" and an economic/international leader. We experience a heyday that even current Trump supporters must admit is a boom (no wall street executives are not as filthy rich, but the middle class experiences a windfall and they remember what it is like to be happy) and the result of undoing GOP myths and manipulation and a healthy redefinition of citizenship, social responsibility, interconnectedness, materialism, and what it means to be successful. The millennials prove to be a much better, more ethical generation and they lead the way to a positive energetic American resurgence. Boomers greed and close-mindedness has them spend their final days in the trash heap as their moral bankruptcy warrants (and it did not have to play out this way if they had been kind and benevolent).

11) The 12-20 years of good times come to an end as bitter conservatives simmer underneath and poison another generation and fall in line behind the next demagogue who is more clever and more intelligent than Trump.

"The Bear will not quilt, the Bear will not dye!"
sycasey
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Further comment: I think that if there was to be a big polling "miss" it's more likely to be in favor of Biden and the Democrats. Why? Two reasons:

1. Dems seem to already have a major edge in the early vote. That is not necessarily predictive, because Election Day turnout can counteract that. But in general it's better to have votes already in the bank than to not have them. Bad weather, long lines, etc., can discourage people on Election Day who otherwise would have voted for you.

2. Turnout seems to be massive across the board, which in recent years has favored Dems. We're seeing this especially in the southwest, which is why you can't rule out a Texas flip.

Again, not a guarantee, but a guess as to where polls might be underestimating the electorate if they are.
smh
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blungld said:

1) Biden wins one shocker state: Texas, Florida, AZ, Georgia...? He also takes Pennsylvania which makes it nearly impossible for Trump to win.. .. ..
Quote:

11) The 12-20 years of good times come to an end as bitter conservatives simmer underneath and poison another generation and fall in line behind the next demagogue who is more clever and more intelligent than Trump.
i'd love to have a ticket to your screenplay's hollywood debut. and have no doubt there will be many screenplays written/filmed. if'n when CV fades in the rear view mirror.. we should live so long # knocks wood
bearister
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.....or....

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GoOskie
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Massive turnout is very favorable to democrats. Biden wins big in EC and popular vote. Gain in House and take Senate. I sure hope trumpies act out so they can be put down like the rats that they are.
This just in: Republicans find another whistleblower who claims Hillary's emails were proven to be on Hunter's laptop while Obama spied on tRump as he sat (shat?) upon his golden toilet. Gym Jordan afraid whistle blower may be in danger of abduction by aliens in cahoots with Democrats.
bearister
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To hell with my original prediction. JOE WINS!

...and tRump...

Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
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okaydo
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dajo9 said:

Put them here for posterity and future bragging rights or being shamed.

I've got Biden with a 7% PV margin and winning the Electoral College 323 - 215.

In my view, there are 6 battleground states (AZ, FL, GA, NC, PA, TX) and Biden only needs one of them to win. I think Trump gets FL and TX.

The story of the election will be youth turnout and a surge in college educated whites, relative to non-college whites combining to give Biden a decisive victory and mandate.

I'm asking this with the caveat that 1) I don't know the answer to this and 2) yes, it's apples and oranges and different circumstances, but... how does Pennsylvania go from re-electing a Democratic governor with a 17-point victory over his opponent in 2018 to being a toss-up state in 2020?

I mean, presumably many if not most Republicans voted in 2018?




sycasey
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okaydo said:

dajo9 said:

Put them here for posterity and future bragging rights or being shamed.

I've got Biden with a 7% PV margin and winning the Electoral College 323 - 215.

In my view, there are 6 battleground states (AZ, FL, GA, NC, PA, TX) and Biden only needs one of them to win. I think Trump gets FL and TX.

The story of the election will be youth turnout and a surge in college educated whites, relative to non-college whites combining to give Biden a decisive victory and mandate.

I'm asking this with the caveat that 1) I don't know the answer to this and 2) yes, it's apples and oranges and different circumstances, but... how does Pennsylvania go from re-electing a Democratic governor with a 17-point victory over his opponent in 2018 to being a toss-up state in 2020?
Well, first of all I don't think PA is a true toss-up state. I think Biden is solidly favored there (though favored doesn't mean guaranteed).

I don't know, how does Arizona elect a Democratic Senator by a slim margin and also a Republican Governor by a much wider margin in the same year (2018)? Different candidates have different levels of support. Local elections turn on different issues than national ones.
golden sloth
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Georgia: This will be the story. Fueled by large black turnout and white college educated suburban voters, and armed with the previous 2018 lessons learned regarding voter interference, Georgia goes big for the Dem's in both the Presidential and the Senate.

Presidential Election:
I think Biden will win, but it won't be known until Wednesday or Thursday. Trump starts claiming voter fraud on Wednesday morning with the mail-in vote ballots that are being counted after election day. I think the Great Lakes go blue, with Wisconsin and Michigan being moderately easy wins, and Pennsylvania being a bit closer than Biden would like. Arizona crosses to blue, but Florida and North Carolina do not. Iowa stays red.

Senate:
I think the Dem's pick up Arizona, North Carolina, Colorado, Maine and Georgia but lose Alabama. McConnell keeps close tabs on the Senate races and Trump's twitter account, realizes the Trump ship has sank mid-day on Wednesday and directly contradicts Trump's conspiracy rhetoric mid-Wednesday effectively ending the union between the Trump faction and the rest of the establishment Republican party, and ensuring a peaceful transfer of power. McConnell then uses every last ounce of the Senate's lame duck time to rig the judicial system in favor of the Conservatives, and then leads the charge in bogging the Biden agenda down in the Senate and court systems, making government as ineffective as possible.

House:
The Dem's expand their lead.

Overall:
The Republican party immediately splits between the Trump faction and the previous iteration of the party blaming each other for the loss, but always unite to be as obstructionist as possible. The Democratic party pick up all the easy legislative wins they can in the first 100 days, but when the agenda turns to more complicated issues, the Democratic party starts to divide and split between the progressives and the moderates, and the 'big change' items stall and are unpassed.

2022:
This election is entirely unpredictable as there are now four different parties (Progressives, Moderates, Conservatives, and Trumpians), with everyone pitted against everyone, and the incumbents being voted out in record numbers and no seat being safe. The subsequent Congressional session becomes even more ineffective.

2024:
A repeat of 2022 with two brutal primaries for both parties on all fronts (House, Senate, and President), the only difference is that once this congress convenes, the different factions start compromising and the base of two new parties starts to form. America goes back to the question of isolationist/protectionist vrs globalist/engaged and the two parties that form reflect these dichotomies, and the social justice question gets redefined in those terms.
BearChemist
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Both Georgia senate races will likely turn to run-off in January, hold your horses.

If Dems take NC senate, they probably also win the presidential race there.
dimitrig
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I think Biden wins the popular vote handily, but beyond that I don't care to speculate.

The large voter turnout seen so far probably favors Biden, but who knows? I think there are a lot of stealth Trump supporters out there who didn't vote last time. The question is if they will bother to vote this time and do they live in states where it matters?














dimitrig
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Nate Silver claims that barring some upset like Trump taking Michigan then Trump needs to win ALL of Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina in order to win the election

Will Biden win just one of those?

I think he'll take at least two of those.

I would love if Biden won Texas, Florida, Georgia, or Ohio but I doubt it.











hanky1
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Here's my prediction:

If Biden wins, everyone will shrug their shoulders and move on with their lives.

If Trump wins, liberals will continue to riot and loot.

This is what an adult acts like:
BearForce2
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The difference between a right wing conspiracy and the truth is about 20 months.
okaydo
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hanky1 said:

Here's my prediction:

If Biden wins, everyone will shrug their shoulders and move on with their lives.

If Trump wins, liberals will continue to riot and loot.

This is what an adult acts like:


Thank you for using a person with a blue check mark to represent all Trump supporters, including Trump and his caravaners.
BearForce2
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The difference between a right wing conspiracy and the truth is about 20 months.
BearChemist
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hanky1 said:

Here's my prediction:

If Biden wins, everyone will shrug their shoulders and move on with their lives.

If Trump wins, liberals will continue to riot and loot.

This is what an adult acts like:

Just wanted to keep the record and see how well this post ages.
okaydo
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BearChemist said:

hanky1 said:

Here's my prediction:

If Biden wins, everyone will shrug their shoulders and move on with their lives.

If Trump wins, liberals will continue to riot and loot.

This is what an adult acts like:

Just wanted to keep the record and see how well this post ages.

I predict it wont' age as well as this thread: https://bearinsider.com/forums/6/topics/96786
dajo9
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We can thank the Electoral College for the proposition of election riots, and understandably so.

I don't know why a bunch of learned people on this site would pretend that it's ok if the American people don't get to choose their President just because of a document written in the 1700's.
blungld
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And there it is. Just as on all threads here. When the Trump supporters show up there is no position taken. They don't respond to the OP question and what is being discussed. Nope. They appear with a change of subject and a whatabout and just a sarcastic claim at Liberals. The entire Trump phenomenon is stand for nothing. Have no ethical center or guiding principle. Just be bitter and make unsubstantiated claims. Attacking a Liberal is almost like having your own real genuine position.

How about you actually detail what YOU think will happen the election and not your stupid "I'll tell you what won't happen..."

"The Bear will not quilt, the Bear will not dye!"
hanky1
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BearChemist said:

hanky1 said:

Here's my prediction:

If Biden wins, everyone will shrug their shoulders and move on with their lives.

If Trump wins, liberals will continue to riot and loot.

This is what an adult acts like:

Just wanted to keep the record and see how well this post ages.


Businesses are being boarded up in cities across America. Do you actually think they're being boarded up for a Biden win?
bearister
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No, they are being boarded up because everyone knows that should tRump "win" it is because the election was rigged and people are going to be pissed, real pissed.

*There simply are not enough really short sighted wealthy people or really stupid people willing to freeze waiting for a post rally bus, to legitimately re-elect him.
Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
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Cal88
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Trump is going to win, easily, holding on to his 2016 states, with another near sweep of the midwest. Trafalgar polling has him ahead in PA. Their methodology is more technically sound, and they have proven to be more accurate than the Nate Silver poll soup back in 2016 and the dynamics now are exactly the same.









Trafalgar has Biden ahead in NV by 2 pts. Intuitively, I have a hard time a state as devastated by the lockdown as NV can vote for Biden, but I have to go with their numbers, we'll see...

This is my prediction map, you can build yours and post it on this thread from https://www.270towin.com/



Final score: Trump 312 - 226 Biden.

Analysis:
-Slightly lower Black turnout than in 2016, with more Black men voting Trump
-Trump doing a bit better with Latinos, esp in FL
-Trump benefiting from the Antifa/BLM mayhem, esp in states like WI
-Large turnout from Trump base in rural areas, providing a decisive edge in PA, MI and other states
-Rep. Boomers switching from Trump to Biden due to covid fear
-Dem Boomers switching from Clinton to Trump due to BLM/Antifa chaos
-More new voters coming in mostly for Trump
-Relatively low turnout from the youth due to locked down campuses and city centers

The election is going to be settled by late Tuesday/early Wednesday, just like in 2016. There will be no major post-election drama like in 2000.
BearChemist
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Is it late July yet, Cal88? Because according to you the Covid hoax should peter out by then.
Cal88
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BearChemist said:

Is it late July yet, Cal88? Because according to you the Covid hoax should peter out by then.
Sure.

Care to share your election predictions for tomorrow BearChemist?

https://www.270towin.com


BearChemist
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Cal88 said:

BearChemist said:

Is it late July yet, Cal88? Because according to you the Covid hoax should peter out by then.
Sure.

Care to share your election predictions for tomorrow BearChemist?

https://www.270towin.com



Not an answer to "is it July yet?" so please try again.

As opposed to your 'analysis' Biden will take MI, WI and MN without doubt.
hanky1
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dajo9 said:

We can thank the Electoral College for the proposition of election riots, and understandably so.

I don't know why a bunch of learned people on this site would pretend that it's ok if the American people don't get to choose their President just because of a document written in the 1700's.


Yeah F that document. It's stupid anyways. Let's burn it to the ground
smh
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hanky1 said:

Businesses are being boarded up in cities across America. Do you actually think they're being boarded up for a Biden win?
nope, but lots and lots of stores went bankrupt after coward #45 ran away from the CV fight. word on the street claims after he couldn't find a way to monetize the plague.
smh
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Cal88 said:

Trump is going to win, easily,,
break a leg '88

backstory > Some say the term originated during Elizabethan times when, instead of applause, the audience would bang their chairs on the ground and if they liked it enough, the leg of the chair would break.
kelly09
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Cal88 said:

Trump is going to win, easily, holding on to his 2016 states, with another near sweep of the midwest. Trafalgar polling has him ahead in PA. Their methodology is more technically sound, and they have proven to be more accurate than the Nate Silver poll soup back in 2016 and the dynamics now are exactly the same.









Trafalgar has Biden ahead in NV by 2 pts. Intuitively, I have a hard time a state as devastated by the lockdown as NV can vote for Biden, but I have to go with their numbers, we'll see...

This is my prediction map, you can build yours and post it on this thread from https://www.270towin.com/



Final score: Trump 312 - 226 Biden.

Analysis:
-Slightly lower Black turnout than in 2016, with more Black men voting Trump
-Trump doing a bit better with Latinos, esp in FL
-Trump benefiting from the Antifa/BLM mayhem, esp in states like WI
-Large turnout from Trump base in rural areas, providing a decisive edge in PA, MI and other states
-Rep. Boomers switching from Trump to Biden due to covid fear
-Dem Boomers switching from Clinton to Trump due to BLM/Antifa chaos
-More new voters coming in mostly for Trump
-Relatively low turnout from the youth due to locked down campuses and city centers

The election is going to be settled by late Tuesday/early Wednesday, just like in 2016. There will be no major post-election drama like in 2000.

seems right.
As for Nate The Great Ag.....We have Hillary in 2016.
in 2018, we have a Dem majority senate with such victorious stalwarts as Donnelly, Nelson, McCaskill.
 
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