dajo, Trafalgar the polling agency is no longer associated with Trafalgar the person anymore.dajo9 said:
Interesting polling out of Georgia lately with some clear movement to democrats in the last week. The most interesting to me is the Trafalgar polling. Trafalgar is run by the nutjob partisan pro-Trumper who Cal88 relied on for his information going into the presidential election. There were some states in which Trafalgar was at least directionally accurate in the November election, at least in terms of Trump voters being underrepresented.
On December 16, Trafalgar released a poll giving the Georgia Republicans a small edge and on December 27, Trafalgar released a poll giving Georgie Democrats a small edge. He attributes the shift to the $2,000 stimulus bill. I don't trust Trafalgar. Everything he does is decidedly pro-Trump in my opinion. From that point of reference, the polling is interesting to me. If Trafalgar has Republicans staying home in Georgia, they probably will.
Final Election Prediction
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Last: 1 yr ago by concordtom
If the Dems win Georgia and the Senate, legislation will still be virtually unpassable. In fact, it could be a negative for Democrats in future elections because of the lack of legislation.concordtom said:
I'm thinking that GOP wins both seats, because November results showed that more people voted against Trump than for Democrats. Split tickets. Dems didn't perform as expected in both chambers, though Trump got crushed, in places like Georgia.
Should the Dems win - it's a whole new ballgame. Biden will be able to govern, pass legislation, and undo so much that is wrong. I hope they go at redistricting, the census, elections (including funding of, voter registration, equitable precinct coverage, and election day practices), the budget, the tax revenue, the environment, and yes - The Trump Corruption!
But, I can't allow any hope. It will have to be good enough that Trump is out, Biden is in.
The filibuster will remain in the Senate, as per Joe Manchin, Democratic Senator from West Virginia, who would become the new most powerful person in America, due to the 290k votes he received in West Virginia in 2018. The filibuster will still allow Republicans in the Senate to block any legislation Biden and Democrats pursue. Those 290k votes will have more legislative power than Joe Biden's 81 million votes.
Don't get me wrong, I still hope Democrats take the Senate, but the only positive outcome from such a slim majority would be that Biden would get to appoint the Cabinet and Judges of his choosing. Also, Dems will control the Senate Committees so Republicans can't do bogus investigations like they always do when a Democrat is President. 81 million votes doesn't really get you much in our broken system of government.
American Vermin
Yes, I was speaking of the nutjob Robert Cahaly. His name escaped me at the moment.BearChemist said:dajo, Trafalgar the polling agency is no longer associated with Trafalgar the person anymore.dajo9 said:
Interesting polling out of Georgia lately with some clear movement to democrats in the last week. The most interesting to me is the Trafalgar polling. Trafalgar is run by the nutjob partisan pro-Trumper who Cal88 relied on for his information going into the presidential election. There were some states in which Trafalgar was at least directionally accurate in the November election, at least in terms of Trump voters being underrepresented.
On December 16, Trafalgar released a poll giving the Georgia Republicans a small edge and on December 27, Trafalgar released a poll giving Georgie Democrats a small edge. He attributes the shift to the $2,000 stimulus bill. I don't trust Trafalgar. Everything he does is decidedly pro-Trump in my opinion. From that point of reference, the polling is interesting to me. If Trafalgar has Republicans staying home in Georgia, they probably will.
American Vermin
youtube link to stones video goes here "you caan't always get want you want, but if try sometimes you just might find, you get what you neeed"dajo9 said:
..and Judges of his choosing.. [if confirmed]
i see dead people,, all the time [cut and pasteable for your inconvenience]..
www.youtube.com/watch?v=IA1jEo8J_j0
This is a pretty big one. People may be surprised at Republican's re-discovered thirst for senate oversight. I hope that for every investigation into make believe Biden administration misconduct, 2 investigations are pointed at Trumpworld.dajo9 said:
Also, Dems will control the Senate Committees so Republicans can't do bogus investigations like they always do when a Democrat is President. 81 million votes doesn't really get you much in our broken system of government.
That and the ability to bring bills / nomination to a floor vote are keys. Nothing crazy will pass with a slim majority either way with moderates on both sides. It is really the committee leadership and what gets brought to the floor that is at play.Unit2Sucks said:This is a pretty big one. People may be surprised at Republican's re-discovered thirst for senate oversight. I hope that for every investigation into make believe Biden administration misconduct, 2 investigations are pointed at Trumpworld.dajo9 said:
Also, Dems will control the Senate Committees so Republicans can't do bogus investigations like they always do when a Democrat is President. 81 million votes doesn't really get you much in our broken system of government.
And if Dems are willing to play hardball (never a safe assumption) they could stick Republicans with a lot of tough "no" votes on popular proposals. McConnell has kept them away from these by just not holding the votes.calbear93 said:That and the ability to bring bills / nomination to a floor vote are keys. Nothing crazy will pass with a slim majority either way with moderates on both sides. It is really the committee leadership and what gets brought to the floor that is at play.Unit2Sucks said:This is a pretty big one. People may be surprised at Republican's re-discovered thirst for senate oversight. I hope that for every investigation into make believe Biden administration misconduct, 2 investigations are pointed at Trumpworld.dajo9 said:
Also, Dems will control the Senate Committees so Republicans can't do bogus investigations like they always do when a Democrat is President. 81 million votes doesn't really get you much in our broken system of government.
That is absolutely true. Again, force leaders to act based on principle instead of based on polls. If you want to vote no out of principle vote no. McConnell definitely has sheltered the moderates (for the far right in red, red states, I am sure they want on the record that they voted no) from having to cast tough votes, and I am sure he is furious that Hawley is forcing a vote on the election results.sycasey said:And if Dems are willing to play hardball (never a safe assumption) they could stick Republicans with a lot of tough "no" votes on popular proposals. McConnell has kept them away from these by just not holding the votes.calbear93 said:That and the ability to bring bills / nomination to a floor vote are keys. Nothing crazy will pass with a slim majority either way with moderates on both sides. It is really the committee leadership and what gets brought to the floor that is at play.Unit2Sucks said:This is a pretty big one. People may be surprised at Republican's re-discovered thirst for senate oversight. I hope that for every investigation into make believe Biden administration misconduct, 2 investigations are pointed at Trumpworld.dajo9 said:
Also, Dems will control the Senate Committees so Republicans can't do bogus investigations like they always do when a Democrat is President. 81 million votes doesn't really get you much in our broken system of government.
In review of my Final Election Prediction:golden sloth said:
Georgia: This will be the story. Fueled by large black turnout and white college educated suburban voters, and armed with the previous 2018 lessons learned regarding voter interference, Georgia goes big for the Dem's in both the Presidential and the Senate.
Presidential Election:
I think Biden will win, but it won't be known until Wednesday or Thursday. Trump starts claiming voter fraud on Wednesday morning with the mail-in vote ballots that are being counted after election day. I think the Great Lakes go blue, with Wisconsin and Michigan being moderately easy wins, and Pennsylvania being a bit closer than Biden would like. Arizona crosses to blue, but Florida and North Carolina do not. Iowa stays red.
Senate:
I think the Dem's pick up Arizona, North Carolina, Colorado, Maine and Georgia but lose Alabama. McConnell keeps close tabs on the Senate races and Trump's twitter account, realizes the Trump ship has sank mid-day on Wednesday and directly contradicts Trump's conspiracy rhetoric mid-Wednesday effectively ending the union between the Trump faction and the rest of the establishment Republican party, and ensuring a peaceful transfer of power. McConnell then uses every last ounce of the Senate's lame duck time to rig the judicial system in favor of the Conservatives, and then leads the charge in bogging the Biden agenda down in the Senate and court systems, making government as ineffective as possible.
House:
The Dem's expand their lead.
Overall:
The Republican party immediately splits between the Trump faction and the previous iteration of the party blaming each other for the loss, but always unite to be as obstructionist as possible. The Democratic party pick up all the easy legislative wins they can in the first 100 days, but when the agenda turns to more complicated issues, the Democratic party starts to divide and split between the progressives and the moderates, and the 'big change' items stall and are unpassed.
2022:
This election is entirely unpredictable as there are now four different parties (Progressives, Moderates, Conservatives, and Trumpians), with everyone pitted against everyone, and the incumbents being voted out in record numbers and no seat being safe. The subsequent Congressional session becomes even more ineffective.
2024:
A repeat of 2022 with two brutal primaries for both parties on all fronts (House, Senate, and President), the only difference is that once this congress convenes, the different factions start compromising and the base of two new parties starts to form. America goes back to the question of isolationist/protectionist vrs globalist/engaged and the two parties that form reflect these dichotomies, and the social justice question gets redefined in those terms.
Georgia - Correct. Though the wins are 'big' in impact, not in margin of victory.
President - Correct, though I wasn't right about Wisconsin and Michigan being moderately easy wins.
Senate - Got Arizona, Colorado and Georgia right, but Maine and North Carolina wrong (Alabama was obvious so I can't take credit there). 60% D-, I'll transfer to ASU.
House - Wrong
Overall - Wrong about the immediacy of the Republican party splitting, though it may be happening now. Everything else is TBD.
2022 & 2024 - TBD.
Looks like those polling analysts who had Democrats favored to take the Senate were not so wrong after all.
We also got our first bit of evidence as to whether or not the low-propensity voters who turned out for Trump will continue to turn out without him on the ballot, and the answer appears to be: "No."
The 2020 election was like the Covid vaccine: the first dose (Trump losing) got is to 80% efficacy. Tonight's dose got us to 95%.
backup needed *stat*
dimitrig said:sycasey said:concordtom said:I tell you what - I'm going to chug this last glass of vodka if only so I can fall asleep.LunchTime said:
Michigan is solid blue. All the missing votes are heavily blue. I think they will get double what they need to tie.
PA looks like a toss-up. Most of the uncounted are blue, but even increasing the lead its very close.
Biden 286, I think. Postpone the Civil War two years.
I have no idea how you are postulating that Biden can overcome the deficits in all these states. If so, I'll wake up and the bad dream will have been just that. If I don't wake up, well, it's just as well.
Almost all the remaining votes to be counted are mail-in ballots from big cities (Milwaukee, Detroit, Philly, Atlanta). You should expect those to swing VERY heavily Democratic. Like, as much as 4- or 5-to-1. Given how many votes are left in these states, all are likely to flip. Georgia will be very close.
I admire your optimism. Last time out some of these states were VERY close but swung the wrong way. Tonight the GOP has definitely outperformed so I am not sure why we should expect things to align for Biden.
This was a fun thread to revisit.
It was just about NOW that Democrats began the overnight dumping of ballot so that when the nation awoke at sunrise suddenly Biden had won!
"New York Times legal scoop machine Mike Schmidt wrote a 12,000-word afterword for the paperback edition of his bestselling "Donald Trump v. The United States," out today.
After retired four-star Marine general John Kelly became White House chief of staff in 2017, he found President Trump "had no grasp on the basics of American foreign policy," Schmidt writes:
"Why did we go to war in North Korea?" Trump would ask Kelly. "Why the f--- are we in NATO?"
"Trump seemed to have no interest in and be confused by Kelly's explanation that nations created a deterrence against Russia by committing to a collective defense," Schmidt continues.
"What the f--?" Trump said.
Kelly would tell aides:
"He has this thing that he knows more than the generals, the economists, the geologists. He is incapable of saying, 'I don't know anything; I need some advice.'"
-Axios
Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside
bearister said:
"New York Times legal scoop machine Mike Schmidt wrote a 12,000-word afterword for the paperback edition of his bestselling "Donald Trump v. The United States," out today.
After retired four-star Marine general John Kelly became White House chief of staff in 2017, he found President Trump "had no grasp on the basics of American foreign policy," Schmidt writes:
"Why did we go to war in North Korea?" Trump would ask Kelly. "Why the f--- are we in NATO?"
"Trump seemed to have no interest in and be confused by Kelly's explanation that nations created a deterrence against Russia by committing to a collective defense," Schmidt continues.
"What the f--?" Trump said.
Kelly would tell aides:
"He has this thing that he knows more than the generals, the economists, the geologists. He is incapable of saying, 'I don't know anything; I need some advice.'"
-Axios
Questioning something means you know more than the established experts on it? Sure, Trump is immature. However, it is good to get some non-establishment perspectives on foreign policy.
From the above, it doesn't seem like Trump had any "perspective," just a lack of knowledge or curiosity.oski003 said:bearister said:
"New York Times legal scoop machine Mike Schmidt wrote a 12,000-word afterword for the paperback edition of his bestselling "Donald Trump v. The United States," out today.
After retired four-star Marine general John Kelly became White House chief of staff in 2017, he found President Trump "had no grasp on the basics of American foreign policy," Schmidt writes:
"Why did we go to war in North Korea?" Trump would ask Kelly. "Why the f--- are we in NATO?"
"Trump seemed to have no interest in and be confused by Kelly's explanation that nations created a deterrence against Russia by committing to a collective defense," Schmidt continues.
"What the f--?" Trump said.
Kelly would tell aides:
"He has this thing that he knows more than the generals, the economists, the geologists. He is incapable of saying, 'I don't know anything; I need some advice.'"
-Axios
Questioning something means you know more than the established experts on it? Sure, Trump is immature. However, it is good to get some non-establishment perspectives on foreign policy.
Yeah, Trump wanted to get some non-establishment perspectives on how to hold onto the White House!oski003 said:
Questioning something means you know more than the established experts on it? Sure, Trump is immature. However, it is good to get some non-establishment perspectives on foreign policy.
Do you think that was a good idea, too?
concordtom said:Yeah, Trump wanted to get some non-establishment perspectives on how to hold onto the White House!oski003 said:
Questioning something means you know more than the established experts on it? Sure, Trump is immature. However, it is good to get some non-establishment perspectives on foreign policy.
Do you think that was a good idea, too?
He lost, so he probably could have used better advice.
oski003 said:
He lost
That's not how he tells it.
Uh, he lost.oski003 said:concordtom said:Yeah, Trump wanted to get some non-establishment perspectives on how to hold onto the White House!oski003 said:
Questioning something means you know more than the established experts on it? Sure, Trump is immature. However, it is good to get some non-establishment perspectives on foreign policy.
Do you think that was a good idea, too?
He lost, so he probably could have used better advice.
And then he LOST again!
