OneKeg said:

---

blungld said:

---

blungld said:

---

Reposting a paraphrased version of my prediction BEFORE the election:

1) Biden wins one shocker state: Texas, Florida, AZ, Georgia. Also takes Pennsylvania. CHECK

2) Trump announces he's won and tries to disqualify the results... CHECK

3) GOP Congress (who do no better than 50-50 in the Senate) try to redefine the party and disown Trump. PENDING

4) Trump court-driven attempt at electoral victory unravels and Biden victory made official days before Thanksgiving. CHECK

5) A lost Trump doesn't seem to have the same spell, 20% are furious and ready to still follow him...the country now openly admits that the last four years were an embarrassment... CHECK

6) Biden starts to govern as a lame duck as Trump abandons all leadership and tries final attempts at profiting off of public service, Barr works to end investigations and cover up. CHECK

7) Trump either flees the country or tries an elaborate self-pardon ploy TBD

8) Biden is sworn in and there is a huge tearful sigh of relief, parties in the streets, the closest thing to the end of WWII...PARTIES CHECK, OATH PENDING

9) Biden works to purge all things Trump...it is ugly the amount of crime and corruption that is uncovered and many GOP cronies resign or end up in jail. TBD

10) The GOP thinks they can follow the same obstructionist playbook but it doesn't work this time...there is a positive energetic American resurgence...TBD

11) The 12-20 years of good times come to an end as bitter conservatives fall in line behind the next demagogue... TBD


Really the only things I wasn't spot on about were I thought that Senate would already be 50-50 and I thought Mitch and core GOP would abandon Trump by this point. Both might still happen

---

Okay, I am probably the only one who cares, but looks like I can move another prediction from PENDING to CHECK (#4 right on schedule).

---

blungld, I agree with a pretty decent amount of what you say.

But you are way off on #5 I think. No more than 50-55% of the country will admit the last 4 years were an embarrassment. Many of the remainder probably think the Obama years were more of an embarrassment than the Trump years. And the electoral college and upcoming 2020 GOP re-gerrymander (since they control most states) will continue to disproportionately represent that latter group.

I think there is a significant chance that the GOP/Trumpism (with or without Trump) come roaring back in 2022 and 2024. And that this Biden interlude is just a brief milquetoast respite from the US' slide into being a illiberal state with fewer and fewer democratic trappings like Brazil or Hungary or India are now.

---

Well that certainly is a fear, and maybe I should keep #5 as pending, but my prediction of a diminishing support to 20% and the declaration of embarrassment was my prediction for after Biden was sworn in. I feel like there has already been such public declaration of the national and international embarrassment and such clear slipping in GOP sycophancy already that I was ready to move that to the check column. But you're right, he still holds just enough power and raw percentage of support that PENDING might still be fairer.

That said, I think way too many people are giving Trumpism way too much deference. I do not think things are going to play out in the worst case scenario you described. I think just the opposite. As soon as Biden is sworn in the GOP will do everything to distance themselves from Trump and redefine the party. Their sanctimony will be disgusting for anyone who paid attention and has a memory of the past four years, nonetheless they will try and reclaim the "moral family values" high ground. FOX will move center, but OAN and NewsMax and talk radio will continue to cater to the Trump base and you will have that 20% stuck in their paranoid rage bubble. But the country will move on from them and GOP will be splintered and lose even more legitimacy and power. We will have an economic boom over the next 2 year and a feeling of optimism as we embrace green energy and look to take leadership on the world stage again. There will be a greater appreciation of our society and rights and freedoms, and dare say a more genuine American pride (as opposed to jingoism and borderline fascism of Trump) that we thwarted the authoritarian and Democracy prevailed. Trumpism will look more and more like a blip and a source of national shame. He and his cronies will not look good when the political assassinations start happening with each corrupt politician now trying to save their own skin starts pointing fingers and passing blame. There will be some house cleaning in government and more more ugly information that comes forward about Trump and his administration and the GOP (and yes there was a form of collusion that connects Trump/GOP/NRA/Wikileaks/RightWingMedia/GRU/Putin and tons of prosecutable acts of obstruction surrounding those deeply unethical and unAmerican actions)). Many will resign or end up in jail, and at best Trump will look like a petty sidelined crook. The emperor will be stripped naked and he will look like a fat orange unintelligent blowhard. He will be a punchline. A joke. The thought of a triumphant return of Trumpism will seem laughable in 6-12 months, and society will no longer tolerate blatant racism and white supremacy and bigotry in the public square. Of course it won't magically disappear, but it will not be normalized or given political clout and will instead be treated with scorn. I do not believe that Biden himself is the savior, but I do believe the country is ready to reject where we were headed and to openly ridicule those who took us there. If I had to bet, we are looking at 12-16 years of Democrat leadership (assuming they actually take the mandate of the vote and DO SOMETHING progressive rather than worry about what the GOP thinks the whole time).

In short, I think this November was a crossroad in American history, that the danger was real and came far too close to taking us down into totalitarian/oligarchy, but I think we survived. Now, do we use this opportunity to learn from what brought us to the edge and do we future proof the election and the power of the executive now against the next demagogue to come? The modern Democrats have never shown the fortitude to make substantive change and sacrifice their own power for long term national security, but this is the time: election reform, controls on dark money, limits on executive and pardon power, additional accountability, police reform, end to electoral college, third party districting an end to gerrymandering, an internet Bill of Rights, national healthcare, gun registration and limits on military-grade weaponry in police and citizens hands, tax reform that redistributes wealth and addresses radical income inequality, etc.

Time will tell if this is the calm before the storm (the Weimar Republic) or an American rebirth that sees the rise of the middle class and our best nature (New Deal II). I am cautiously optimistic on the later path.

blungld said:

---

OneKeg said:

---

blungld said:

---

blungld said:

---

Reposting a paraphrased version of my prediction BEFORE the election:

1) Biden wins one shocker state: Texas, Florida, AZ, Georgia. Also takes Pennsylvania. CHECK

2) Trump announces he's won and tries to disqualify the results... CHECK

3) GOP Congress (who do no better than 50-50 in the Senate) try to redefine the party and disown Trump. PENDING

4) Trump court-driven attempt at electoral victory unravels and Biden victory made official days before Thanksgiving. CHECK

5) A lost Trump doesn't seem to have the same spell, 20% are furious and ready to still follow him...the country now openly admits that the last four years were an embarrassment... CHECK

6) Biden starts to govern as a lame duck as Trump abandons all leadership and tries final attempts at profiting off of public service, Barr works to end investigations and cover up. CHECK

7) Trump either flees the country or tries an elaborate self-pardon ploy TBD

8) Biden is sworn in and there is a huge tearful sigh of relief, parties in the streets, the closest thing to the end of WWII...PARTIES CHECK, OATH PENDING

9) Biden works to purge all things Trump...it is ugly the amount of crime and corruption that is uncovered and many GOP cronies resign or end up in jail. TBD

10) The GOP thinks they can follow the same obstructionist playbook but it doesn't work this time...there is a positive energetic American resurgence...TBD

11) The 12-20 years of good times come to an end as bitter conservatives fall in line behind the next demagogue... TBD


Really the only things I wasn't spot on about were I thought that Senate would already be 50-50 and I thought Mitch and core GOP would abandon Trump by this point. Both might still happen

---

Okay, I am probably the only one who cares, but looks like I can move another prediction from PENDING to CHECK (#4 right on schedule).

---

blungld, I agree with a pretty decent amount of what you say.

But you are way off on #5 I think. No more than 50-55% of the country will admit the last 4 years were an embarrassment. Many of the remainder probably think the Obama years were more of an embarrassment than the Trump years. And the electoral college and upcoming 2020 GOP re-gerrymander (since they control most states) will continue to disproportionately represent that latter group.

I think there is a significant chance that the GOP/Trumpism (with or without Trump) come roaring back in 2022 and 2024. And that this Biden interlude is just a brief milquetoast respite from the US' slide into being a illiberal state with fewer and fewer democratic trappings like Brazil or Hungary or India are now.

---

Well that certainly is a fear, and maybe I should keep #5 as pending, but my prediction of a diminishing support to 20% and the declaration of embarrassment was my prediction for after Biden was sworn in. I feel like there has already been such public declaration of the national and international embarrassment and such clear slipping in GOP sycophancy already that I was ready to move that to the check column. But you're right, he still holds just enough power and raw percentage of support that PENDING might still be fairer.

That said, I think way too many people are giving Trumpism way too much deference. I do not think things are going to play out in the worst case scenario you described. I think just the opposite. As soon as Biden is sworn in the GOP will do everything to distance themselves from Trump and redefine the party. Their sanctimony will be disgusting for anyone who paid attention and has a memory of the past four years, nonetheless they will try and reclaim the "moral family values" high ground. FOX will move center, but OAN and NewsMax and talk radio will continue to cater to the Trump base and you will have that 20% stuck in their paranoid rage bubble. But the country will move on from them and GOP will be splintered and lose even more legitimacy and power. We will have an economic boom over the next 2 year and a feeling of optimism as we embrace green energy and look to take leadership on the world stage again. There will be a greater appreciation of our society and rights and freedoms, and dare say a more genuine American pride (as opposed to jingoism and borderline fascism of Trump) that we thwarted the authoritarian and Democracy prevailed. Trumpism will look more and more like a blip and a source of national shame. He and his cronies will not look good when the political assassinations start happening with each corrupt politician now trying to save their own skin starts pointing fingers and passing blame. There will be some house cleaning in government and more more ugly information that comes forward about Trump and his administration and the GOP (and yes there was a form of collusion that connects Trump/GOP/NRA/Wikileaks/RightWingMedia/GRU/Putin and tons of prosecutable acts of obstruction surrounding those deeply unethical and unAmerican actions)). Many will resign or end up in jail, and at best Trump will look like a petty sidelined crook. The emperor will be stripped naked and he will look like a fat orange unintelligent blowhard. He will be a punchline. A joke. The thought of a triumphant return of Trumpism will seem laughable in 6-12 months, and society will no longer tolerate blatant racism and white supremacy and bigotry in the public square. Of course it won't magically disappear, but it will not be normalized or given political clout and will instead be treated with scorn. I do not believe that Biden himself is the savior, but I do believe the country is ready to reject where we were headed and to openly ridicule those who took us there. If I had to bet, we are looking at 12-16 years of Democrat leadership (assuming they actually take the mandate of the vote and DO SOMETHING progressive rather than worry about what the GOP thinks the whole time).

In short, I think this November was a crossroad in American history, that the danger was real and came far too close to taking us down into totalitarian/oligarchy, but I think we survived. Now, do we use this opportunity to learn from what brought us to the edge and do we future proof the election and the power of the executive now against the next demagogue to come? The modern Democrats have never shown the fortitude to make substantive change and sacrifice their own power for long term national security, but this is the time: election reform, controls on dark money, limits on executive and pardon power, additional accountability, police reform, end to electoral college, third party districting an end to gerrymandering, an internet Bill of Rights, national healthcare, gun registration and limits on military-grade weaponry in police and citizens hands, tax reform that redistributes wealth and addresses radical income inequality, etc.

Time will tell if this is the calm before the storm (the Weimar Republic) or an American rebirth that sees the rise of the middle class and our best nature (New Deal II). I am cautiously optimistic on the later path.

---

Wow blungld. That sounds wonderful. But I don't think it's going to happen - well some of it will, but almost certainly not all of it. Some of the things you say seem as outlandishly unlikely to me as bearlyamazing's raving predictions on the opposite side.

Trump just got the 2nd most votes for any presidential candidate ever (I think?), behind only the candidate he ran against. And Republicans in the House and Senate actually mostly ran ahead of Trump. A victory for us Dems for sure, but how can you read this as a massive turning point or crossroads? Have you spent any time actually talking (without imposing your own views) with Republicans from other parts of the country? Particularly those in the exurbs and rural areas? America may not be what you think it is.

Just to pick one item out - "We will have an economic boom over the next 2 year and a feeling of optimism as we embrace green energy" ... and why do you think McConnell will allow that?

If we're going to make outlandish predictions, here's mine in this area, which I think is far less outlandish than yours when it comes to reality:
McConnell will have at least 50 senators, and probably 51 or 52 depending on the 2 Georgia runoffs. And of the Ds, for one, no way senator Manchin of WV is going to support green energy - so the Dems will not have 50 (even if you were to abolish the filibuster which currently requires you to need 60 most of the time unless you use reconciliation). The Senate is by nature non-democratic and huge favors low-population red states. McConnell's entire career has been based on using this inherent advantage and total-war approach to ram his will down Dems throats with a Republican president and to stonewall and sabotage a Dem president. It baffles me why you think that will not continue. He will make damn sure that there is no robust recovery with Biden even if the Biden Administration and House pass laws to promote it because he will want to make sure that Dems do not get credit. Republicans will suddenly become deficit-hawks again and use their stronghold in the Senate (and now Supreme Court) to block everything and create pseudo-austerity once Biden takes office, so all of America's resulting misery will be blamed on Biden and Harris.

Ok that was just one example. In general, I don't think the US is in a Weimar Republic phase exactly because I don't think we're about to become Nazi Germany, though we do have tons of similarities to Germany in the early 1930s (before they started putting people in camps). If we do regress into fascism at some point, I expect it to be more of the Orban type in Hungary, less overtly murderous (most of the time) but more subtle and insidious. And it won't be forever either - that too will pass.

Best news I've heard today is that MAGAts are pushing to write in Trump in the GA senate runoffs. Can't think of a better way to tank the Republican candidates and hand the senate to Biden.

OneKeg said:

---

blungld said:

---

OneKeg said:

---

blungld said:

---

blungld said:

---

Reposting a paraphrased version of my prediction BEFORE the election:

1) Biden wins one shocker state: Texas, Florida, AZ, Georgia. Also takes Pennsylvania. CHECK

2) Trump announces he's won and tries to disqualify the results... CHECK

3) GOP Congress (who do no better than 50-50 in the Senate) try to redefine the party and disown Trump. PENDING

4) Trump court-driven attempt at electoral victory unravels and Biden victory made official days before Thanksgiving. CHECK

5) A lost Trump doesn't seem to have the same spell, 20% are furious and ready to still follow him...the country now openly admits that the last four years were an embarrassment... CHECK

6) Biden starts to govern as a lame duck as Trump abandons all leadership and tries final attempts at profiting off of public service, Barr works to end investigations and cover up. CHECK

7) Trump either flees the country or tries an elaborate self-pardon ploy TBD

8) Biden is sworn in and there is a huge tearful sigh of relief, parties in the streets, the closest thing to the end of WWII...PARTIES CHECK, OATH PENDING

9) Biden works to purge all things Trump...it is ugly the amount of crime and corruption that is uncovered and many GOP cronies resign or end up in jail. TBD

10) The GOP thinks they can follow the same obstructionist playbook but it doesn't work this time...there is a positive energetic American resurgence...TBD

11) The 12-20 years of good times come to an end as bitter conservatives fall in line behind the next demagogue... TBD


Really the only things I wasn't spot on about were I thought that Senate would already be 50-50 and I thought Mitch and core GOP would abandon Trump by this point. Both might still happen

---

Okay, I am probably the only one who cares, but looks like I can move another prediction from PENDING to CHECK (#4 right on schedule).

---

blungld, I agree with a pretty decent amount of what you say.

But you are way off on #5 I think. No more than 50-55% of the country will admit the last 4 years were an embarrassment. Many of the remainder probably think the Obama years were more of an embarrassment than the Trump years. And the electoral college and upcoming 2020 GOP re-gerrymander (since they control most states) will continue to disproportionately represent that latter group.

I think there is a significant chance that the GOP/Trumpism (with or without Trump) come roaring back in 2022 and 2024. And that this Biden interlude is just a brief milquetoast respite from the US' slide into being a illiberal state with fewer and fewer democratic trappings like Brazil or Hungary or India are now.

---

Well that certainly is a fear, and maybe I should keep #5 as pending, but my prediction of a diminishing support to 20% and the declaration of embarrassment was my prediction for after Biden was sworn in. I feel like there has already been such public declaration of the national and international embarrassment and such clear slipping in GOP sycophancy already that I was ready to move that to the check column. But you're right, he still holds just enough power and raw percentage of support that PENDING might still be fairer.

That said, I think way too many people are giving Trumpism way too much deference. I do not think things are going to play out in the worst case scenario you described. I think just the opposite. As soon as Biden is sworn in the GOP will do everything to distance themselves from Trump and redefine the party. Their sanctimony will be disgusting for anyone who paid attention and has a memory of the past four years, nonetheless they will try and reclaim the "moral family values" high ground. FOX will move center, but OAN and NewsMax and talk radio will continue to cater to the Trump base and you will have that 20% stuck in their paranoid rage bubble. But the country will move on from them and GOP will be splintered and lose even more legitimacy and power. We will have an economic boom over the next 2 year and a feeling of optimism as we embrace green energy and look to take leadership on the world stage again. There will be a greater appreciation of our society and rights and freedoms, and dare say a more genuine American pride (as opposed to jingoism and borderline fascism of Trump) that we thwarted the authoritarian and Democracy prevailed. Trumpism will look more and more like a blip and a source of national shame. He and his cronies will not look good when the political assassinations start happening with each corrupt politician now trying to save their own skin starts pointing fingers and passing blame. There will be some house cleaning in government and more more ugly information that comes forward about Trump and his administration and the GOP (and yes there was a form of collusion that connects Trump/GOP/NRA/Wikileaks/RightWingMedia/GRU/Putin and tons of prosecutable acts of obstruction surrounding those deeply unethical and unAmerican actions)). Many will resign or end up in jail, and at best Trump will look like a petty sidelined crook. The emperor will be stripped naked and he will look like a fat orange unintelligent blowhard. He will be a punchline. A joke. The thought of a triumphant return of Trumpism will seem laughable in 6-12 months, and society will no longer tolerate blatant racism and white supremacy and bigotry in the public square. Of course it won't magically disappear, but it will not be normalized or given political clout and will instead be treated with scorn. I do not believe that Biden himself is the savior, but I do believe the country is ready to reject where we were headed and to openly ridicule those who took us there. If I had to bet, we are looking at 12-16 years of Democrat leadership (assuming they actually take the mandate of the vote and DO SOMETHING progressive rather than worry about what the GOP thinks the whole time).

In short, I think this November was a crossroad in American history, that the danger was real and came far too close to taking us down into totalitarian/oligarchy, but I think we survived. Now, do we use this opportunity to learn from what brought us to the edge and do we future proof the election and the power of the executive now against the next demagogue to come? The modern Democrats have never shown the fortitude to make substantive change and sacrifice their own power for long term national security, but this is the time: election reform, controls on dark money, limits on executive and pardon power, additional accountability, police reform, end to electoral college, third party districting an end to gerrymandering, an internet Bill of Rights, national healthcare, gun registration and limits on military-grade weaponry in police and citizens hands, tax reform that redistributes wealth and addresses radical income inequality, etc.

Time will tell if this is the calm before the storm (the Weimar Republic) or an American rebirth that sees the rise of the middle class and our best nature (New Deal II). I am cautiously optimistic on the later path.

---

Wow blungld. That sounds wonderful. But I don't think it's going to happen - well some of it will, but almost certainly not all of it. Some of the things you say seem as outlandishly unlikely to me as bearlyamazing's raving predictions on the opposite side.

Trump just got the 2nd most votes for any presidential candidate ever (I think?), behind only the candidate he ran against. And Republicans in the House and Senate actually mostly ran ahead of Trump. A victory for us Dems for sure, but how can you read this as a massive turning point or crossroads? Have you spent any time actually talking (without imposing your own views) with Republicans from other parts of the country? Particularly those in the exurbs and rural areas? America may not be what you think it is.

Just to pick one item out - "We will have an economic boom over the next 2 year and a feeling of optimism as we embrace green energy" ... and why do you think McConnell will allow that?

If we're going to make outlandish predictions, here's mine in this area, which I think is far less outlandish than yours when it comes to reality:
McConnell will have at least 50 senators, and probably 51 or 52 depending on the 2 Georgia runoffs. And of the Ds, for one, no way senator Manchin of WV is going to support green energy - so the Dems will not have 50 (even if you were to abolish the filibuster which currently requires you to need 60 most of the time unless you use reconciliation). The Senate is by nature non-democratic and huge favors low-population red states. McConnell's entire career has been based on using this inherent advantage and total-war approach to ram his will down Dems throats with a Republican president and to stonewall and sabotage a Dem president. It baffles me why you think that will not continue. He will make damn sure that there is no robust recovery with Biden even if the Biden Administration and House pass laws to promote it because he will want to make sure that Dems do not get credit. Republicans will suddenly become deficit-hawks again and use their stronghold in the Senate (and now Supreme Court) to block everything and create pseudo-austerity once Biden takes office, so all of America's resulting misery will be blamed on Biden and Harris.

Ok that was just one example. In general, I don't think the US is in a Weimar Republic phase exactly because I don't think we're about to become Nazi Germany, though we do have tons of similarities to Germany in the early 1930s (before they started putting people in camps). If we do regress into fascism at some point, I expect it to be more of the Orban type in Hungary, less overtly murderous (most of the time) but more subtle and insidious. And it won't be forever either - that too will pass.

---

As I said before, what you describe is the fear and yes very possible and maybe even likely. I hope I haven't become the antithesis to BarelyAmazing, but it is hard to have perspective on yourself. I do find it affirming that most of my predictions, not just about the election, have come to pass in one form or another, so I don't think I am that far off from reality, and the PHDs in history and political science I speak to don't think I'm a nut (or at least haven't told me so).

In answer to your question, I live in CT and have lots of traditional financial conservative friends here. I also have family and friends in CA who fit this description I also have family in rural Oregon, Missouri, and Ohio who fit the classic Trumper description, and even some who are full Quanon. I also have done some phone and email banking to Georgia and got a first hand blast of Trump rage and conspiracy belief first hand (some of the things people felt comfortable saying let alone believing is downright shocking). So, I don't think I have skewed sense of the country's temperature, though I am not living in the Trump bubble. My hope is that a lot of these people are programmable and that when "the king" falls he falls hard. I think a very large portion of the Trump supporters will resent how they were deceived (though they will never admit they were deceived and will sublimate that anger to another emotion and target) and that they will start getting very different messages from much of the right wing media as it disowns Trump and reinvents the party. In pure hypothetical terms, let's say of the remaining Trump support 30% are with him for pure "economic policies" (yeah right), another 30% are with him because of media messaging and undying loyalty to the letter R (and knee jerk antipathy towards anything that media says is "liberal"), and the last 40% actually is deeply connected to the the cult of personality. I believe that over 50% of this support will abandon him the instant it becomes cool to do so. I think this gets you to a very small percentage of Americans who go on the Trump/NewsMax/OAN/Q rollercoaster ride. And that ultimately this splinter does more harm than good to the conservative voting block. I do not think we will ever see Trumpism rise up to be the power broker in the GOP again. More an annoying embarrassing sub party.

We'll see.

blungld said:

---

OneKeg said:

---

blungld said:

---

OneKeg said:

---

blungld said:

---

blungld said:

---

Reposting a paraphrased version of my prediction BEFORE the election:

1) Biden wins one shocker state: Texas, Florida, AZ, Georgia. Also takes Pennsylvania. CHECK

2) Trump announces he's won and tries to disqualify the results... CHECK

3) GOP Congress (who do no better than 50-50 in the Senate) try to redefine the party and disown Trump. PENDING

4) Trump court-driven attempt at electoral victory unravels and Biden victory made official days before Thanksgiving. CHECK

5) A lost Trump doesn't seem to have the same spell, 20% are furious and ready to still follow him...the country now openly admits that the last four years were an embarrassment... CHECK

6) Biden starts to govern as a lame duck as Trump abandons all leadership and tries final attempts at profiting off of public service, Barr works to end investigations and cover up. CHECK

7) Trump either flees the country or tries an elaborate self-pardon ploy TBD

8) Biden is sworn in and there is a huge tearful sigh of relief, parties in the streets, the closest thing to the end of WWII...PARTIES CHECK, OATH PENDING

9) Biden works to purge all things Trump...it is ugly the amount of crime and corruption that is uncovered and many GOP cronies resign or end up in jail. TBD

10) The GOP thinks they can follow the same obstructionist playbook but it doesn't work this time...there is a positive energetic American resurgence...TBD

11) The 12-20 years of good times come to an end as bitter conservatives fall in line behind the next demagogue... TBD


Really the only things I wasn't spot on about were I thought that Senate would already be 50-50 and I thought Mitch and core GOP would abandon Trump by this point. Both might still happen

---

Okay, I am probably the only one who cares, but looks like I can move another prediction from PENDING to CHECK (#4 right on schedule).

---

blungld, I agree with a pretty decent amount of what you say.

But you are way off on #5 I think. No more than 50-55% of the country will admit the last 4 years were an embarrassment. Many of the remainder probably think the Obama years were more of an embarrassment than the Trump years. And the electoral college and upcoming 2020 GOP re-gerrymander (since they control most states) will continue to disproportionately represent that latter group.

I think there is a significant chance that the GOP/Trumpism (with or without Trump) come roaring back in 2022 and 2024. And that this Biden interlude is just a brief milquetoast respite from the US' slide into being a illiberal state with fewer and fewer democratic trappings like Brazil or Hungary or India are now.

---

Well that certainly is a fear, and maybe I should keep #5 as pending, but my prediction of a diminishing support to 20% and the declaration of embarrassment was my prediction for after Biden was sworn in. I feel like there has already been such public declaration of the national and international embarrassment and such clear slipping in GOP sycophancy already that I was ready to move that to the check column. But you're right, he still holds just enough power and raw percentage of support that PENDING might still be fairer.

That said, I think way too many people are giving Trumpism way too much deference. I do not think things are going to play out in the worst case scenario you described. I think just the opposite. As soon as Biden is sworn in the GOP will do everything to distance themselves from Trump and redefine the party. Their sanctimony will be disgusting for anyone who paid attention and has a memory of the past four years, nonetheless they will try and reclaim the "moral family values" high ground. FOX will move center, but OAN and NewsMax and talk radio will continue to cater to the Trump base and you will have that 20% stuck in their paranoid rage bubble. But the country will move on from them and GOP will be splintered and lose even more legitimacy and power. We will have an economic boom over the next 2 year and a feeling of optimism as we embrace green energy and look to take leadership on the world stage again. There will be a greater appreciation of our society and rights and freedoms, and dare say a more genuine American pride (as opposed to jingoism and borderline fascism of Trump) that we thwarted the authoritarian and Democracy prevailed. Trumpism will look more and more like a blip and a source of national shame. He and his cronies will not look good when the political assassinations start happening with each corrupt politician now trying to save their own skin starts pointing fingers and passing blame. There will be some house cleaning in government and more more ugly information that comes forward about Trump and his administration and the GOP (and yes there was a form of collusion that connects Trump/GOP/NRA/Wikileaks/RightWingMedia/GRU/Putin and tons of prosecutable acts of obstruction surrounding those deeply unethical and unAmerican actions)). Many will resign or end up in jail, and at best Trump will look like a petty sidelined crook. The emperor will be stripped naked and he will look like a fat orange unintelligent blowhard. He will be a punchline. A joke. The thought of a triumphant return of Trumpism will seem laughable in 6-12 months, and society will no longer tolerate blatant racism and white supremacy and bigotry in the public square. Of course it won't magically disappear, but it will not be normalized or given political clout and will instead be treated with scorn. I do not believe that Biden himself is the savior, but I do believe the country is ready to reject where we were headed and to openly ridicule those who took us there. If I had to bet, we are looking at 12-16 years of Democrat leadership (assuming they actually take the mandate of the vote and DO SOMETHING progressive rather than worry about what the GOP thinks the whole time).

In short, I think this November was a crossroad in American history, that the danger was real and came far too close to taking us down into totalitarian/oligarchy, but I think we survived. Now, do we use this opportunity to learn from what brought us to the edge and do we future proof the election and the power of the executive now against the next demagogue to come? The modern Democrats have never shown the fortitude to make substantive change and sacrifice their own power for long term national security, but this is the time: election reform, controls on dark money, limits on executive and pardon power, additional accountability, police reform, end to electoral college, third party districting an end to gerrymandering, an internet Bill of Rights, national healthcare, gun registration and limits on military-grade weaponry in police and citizens hands, tax reform that redistributes wealth and addresses radical income inequality, etc.

Time will tell if this is the calm before the storm (the Weimar Republic) or an American rebirth that sees the rise of the middle class and our best nature (New Deal II). I am cautiously optimistic on the later path.

---

Wow blungld. That sounds wonderful. But I don't think it's going to happen - well some of it will, but almost certainly not all of it. Some of the things you say seem as outlandishly unlikely to me as bearlyamazing's raving predictions on the opposite side.

Trump just got the 2nd most votes for any presidential candidate ever (I think?), behind only the candidate he ran against. And Republicans in the House and Senate actually mostly ran ahead of Trump. A victory for us Dems for sure, but how can you read this as a massive turning point or crossroads? Have you spent any time actually talking (without imposing your own views) with Republicans from other parts of the country? Particularly those in the exurbs and rural areas? America may not be what you think it is.

Just to pick one item out - "We will have an economic boom over the next 2 year and a feeling of optimism as we embrace green energy" ... and why do you think McConnell will allow that?

If we're going to make outlandish predictions, here's mine in this area, which I think is far less outlandish than yours when it comes to reality:
McConnell will have at least 50 senators, and probably 51 or 52 depending on the 2 Georgia runoffs. And of the Ds, for one, no way senator Manchin of WV is going to support green energy - so the Dems will not have 50 (even if you were to abolish the filibuster which currently requires you to need 60 most of the time unless you use reconciliation). The Senate is by nature non-democratic and huge favors low-population red states. McConnell's entire career has been based on using this inherent advantage and total-war approach to ram his will down Dems throats with a Republican president and to stonewall and sabotage a Dem president. It baffles me why you think that will not continue. He will make damn sure that there is no robust recovery with Biden even if the Biden Administration and House pass laws to promote it because he will want to make sure that Dems do not get credit. Republicans will suddenly become deficit-hawks again and use their stronghold in the Senate (and now Supreme Court) to block everything and create pseudo-austerity once Biden takes office, so all of America's resulting misery will be blamed on Biden and Harris.

Ok that was just one example. In general, I don't think the US is in a Weimar Republic phase exactly because I don't think we're about to become Nazi Germany, though we do have tons of similarities to Germany in the early 1930s (before they started putting people in camps). If we do regress into fascism at some point, I expect it to be more of the Orban type in Hungary, less overtly murderous (most of the time) but more subtle and insidious. And it won't be forever either - that too will pass.

---

As I said before, what you describe is the fear and yes very possible and maybe even likely. I hope I haven't become the antithesis to BarelyAmazing, but it is hard to have perspective on yourself. I do find it affirming that most of my predictions, not just about the election, have come to pass in one form or another, so I don't think I am that far off from reality, and the PHDs in history and political science I speak to don't think I'm a nut (or at least haven't told me so).

In answer to your question, I live in CT and have lots of traditional financial conservative friends here. I also have family and friends in CA who fit this description I also have family in rural Oregon, Missouri, and Ohio who fit the classic Trumper description, and even some who are full Quanon. I also have done some phone and email banking to Georgia and got a first hand blast of Trump rage and conspiracy belief first hand (some of the things people felt comfortable saying let alone believing is downright shocking). So, I don't think I have skewed sense of the country's temperature, though I am not living in the Trump bubble. My hope is that a lot of these people are programmable and that when "the king" falls he falls hard. I think a very large portion of the Trump supporters will resent how they were deceived (though they will never admit they were deceived and will sublimate that anger to another emotion and target) and that they will start getting very different messages from much of the right wing media as it disowns Trump and reinvents the party. In pure hypothetical terms, let's say of the remaining Trump support 30% are with him for pure "economic policies" (yeah right), another 30% are with him because of media messaging and undying loyalty to the letter R (and knee jerk antipathy towards anything that media says is "liberal"), and the last 40% actually is deeply connected to the the cult of personality. I believe that over 50% of this support will abandon him the instant it becomes cool to do so. I think this gets you to a very small percentage of Americans who go on the Trump/NewsMax/OAN/Q rollercoaster ride. And that ultimately this splinter does more harm than good to the conservative voting block. I do not think we will ever see Trumpism rise up to be the power broker in the GOP again. More an annoying embarrassing sub party.

We'll see.

---

Fair enough. We'll see as you said. And as I said, I hope you're right.

You'll notice that of your actual original checklist, I only took direct issue with #5... I agree with several, not all, of the others, disagreeing perhaps with some of the other future predictions.

Edited to add: I should clarify to say yes at the time you made them, all your predictions were "future predictions." Above, I meant that I disagree with some of your predictions that are still in the future. Your predictions of the recent election results were mostly like predicting that an 11 point favorite in CFB would win outright (and indeed they did win, but didn't cover) and that they would force a couple turnovers - good predictions that ended up being correct but not earthshaking. Predictions about Trump denying he lost of course were no brainers, I'm sure you would agree! =)

OneKeg said:

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blungld said:

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OneKeg said:

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blungld said:

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OneKeg said:

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blungld said:

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blungld said:

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Reposting a paraphrased version of my prediction BEFORE the election:

1) Biden wins one shocker state: Texas, Florida, AZ, Georgia. Also takes Pennsylvania. CHECK

2) Trump announces he's won and tries to disqualify the results... CHECK

3) GOP Congress (who do no better than 50-50 in the Senate) try to redefine the party and disown Trump. PENDING

4) Trump court-driven attempt at electoral victory unravels and Biden victory made official days before Thanksgiving. CHECK

5) A lost Trump doesn't seem to have the same spell, 20% are furious and ready to still follow him...the country now openly admits that the last four years were an embarrassment... CHECK

6) Biden starts to govern as a lame duck as Trump abandons all leadership and tries final attempts at profiting off of public service, Barr works to end investigations and cover up. CHECK

7) Trump either flees the country or tries an elaborate self-pardon ploy TBD

8) Biden is sworn in and there is a huge tearful sigh of relief, parties in the streets, the closest thing to the end of WWII...PARTIES CHECK, OATH PENDING

9) Biden works to purge all things Trump...it is ugly the amount of crime and corruption that is uncovered and many GOP cronies resign or end up in jail. TBD

10) The GOP thinks they can follow the same obstructionist playbook but it doesn't work this time...there is a positive energetic American resurgence...TBD

11) The 12-20 years of good times come to an end as bitter conservatives fall in line behind the next demagogue... TBD


Really the only things I wasn't spot on about were I thought that Senate would already be 50-50 and I thought Mitch and core GOP would abandon Trump by this point. Both might still happen

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Okay, I am probably the only one who cares, but looks like I can move another prediction from PENDING to CHECK (#4 right on schedule).

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blungld, I agree with a pretty decent amount of what you say.

But you are way off on #5 I think. No more than 50-55% of the country will admit the last 4 years were an embarrassment. Many of the remainder probably think the Obama years were more of an embarrassment than the Trump years. And the electoral college and upcoming 2020 GOP re-gerrymander (since they control most states) will continue to disproportionately represent that latter group.

I think there is a significant chance that the GOP/Trumpism (with or without Trump) come roaring back in 2022 and 2024. And that this Biden interlude is just a brief milquetoast respite from the US' slide into being a illiberal state with fewer and fewer democratic trappings like Brazil or Hungary or India are now.

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Well that certainly is a fear, and maybe I should keep #5 as pending, but my prediction of a diminishing support to 20% and the declaration of embarrassment was my prediction for after Biden was sworn in. I feel like there has already been such public declaration of the national and international embarrassment and such clear slipping in GOP sycophancy already that I was ready to move that to the check column. But you're right, he still holds just enough power and raw percentage of support that PENDING might still be fairer.

That said, I think way too many people are giving Trumpism way too much deference. I do not think things are going to play out in the worst case scenario you described. I think just the opposite. As soon as Biden is sworn in the GOP will do everything to distance themselves from Trump and redefine the party. Their sanctimony will be disgusting for anyone who paid attention and has a memory of the past four years, nonetheless they will try and reclaim the "moral family values" high ground. FOX will move center, but OAN and NewsMax and talk radio will continue to cater to the Trump base and you will have that 20% stuck in their paranoid rage bubble. But the country will move on from them and GOP will be splintered and lose even more legitimacy and power. We will have an economic boom over the next 2 year and a feeling of optimism as we embrace green energy and look to take leadership on the world stage again. There will be a greater appreciation of our society and rights and freedoms, and dare say a more genuine American pride (as opposed to jingoism and borderline fascism of Trump) that we thwarted the authoritarian and Democracy prevailed. Trumpism will look more and more like a blip and a source of national shame. He and his cronies will not look good when the political assassinations start happening with each corrupt politician now trying to save their own skin starts pointing fingers and passing blame. There will be some house cleaning in government and more more ugly information that comes forward about Trump and his administration and the GOP (and yes there was a form of collusion that connects Trump/GOP/NRA/Wikileaks/RightWingMedia/GRU/Putin and tons of prosecutable acts of obstruction surrounding those deeply unethical and unAmerican actions)). Many will resign or end up in jail, and at best Trump will look like a petty sidelined crook. The emperor will be stripped naked and he will look like a fat orange unintelligent blowhard. He will be a punchline. A joke. The thought of a triumphant return of Trumpism will seem laughable in 6-12 months, and society will no longer tolerate blatant racism and white supremacy and bigotry in the public square. Of course it won't magically disappear, but it will not be normalized or given political clout and will instead be treated with scorn. I do not believe that Biden himself is the savior, but I do believe the country is ready to reject where we were headed and to openly ridicule those who took us there. If I had to bet, we are looking at 12-16 years of Democrat leadership (assuming they actually take the mandate of the vote and DO SOMETHING progressive rather than worry about what the GOP thinks the whole time).

In short, I think this November was a crossroad in American history, that the danger was real and came far too close to taking us down into totalitarian/oligarchy, but I think we survived. Now, do we use this opportunity to learn from what brought us to the edge and do we future proof the election and the power of the executive now against the next demagogue to come? The modern Democrats have never shown the fortitude to make substantive change and sacrifice their own power for long term national security, but this is the time: election reform, controls on dark money, limits on executive and pardon power, additional accountability, police reform, end to electoral college, third party districting an end to gerrymandering, an internet Bill of Rights, national healthcare, gun registration and limits on military-grade weaponry in police and citizens hands, tax reform that redistributes wealth and addresses radical income inequality, etc.

Time will tell if this is the calm before the storm (the Weimar Republic) or an American rebirth that sees the rise of the middle class and our best nature (New Deal II). I am cautiously optimistic on the later path.

---

Wow blungld. That sounds wonderful. But I don't think it's going to happen - well some of it will, but almost certainly not all of it. Some of the things you say seem as outlandishly unlikely to me as bearlyamazing's raving predictions on the opposite side.

Trump just got the 2nd most votes for any presidential candidate ever (I think?), behind only the candidate he ran against. And Republicans in the House and Senate actually mostly ran ahead of Trump. A victory for us Dems for sure, but how can you read this as a massive turning point or crossroads? Have you spent any time actually talking (without imposing your own views) with Republicans from other parts of the country? Particularly those in the exurbs and rural areas? America may not be what you think it is.

Just to pick one item out - "We will have an economic boom over the next 2 year and a feeling of optimism as we embrace green energy" ... and why do you think McConnell will allow that?

If we're going to make outlandish predictions, here's mine in this area, which I think is far less outlandish than yours when it comes to reality:
McConnell will have at least 50 senators, and probably 51 or 52 depending on the 2 Georgia runoffs. And of the Ds, for one, no way senator Manchin of WV is going to support green energy - so the Dems will not have 50 (even if you were to abolish the filibuster which currently requires you to need 60 most of the time unless you use reconciliation). The Senate is by nature non-democratic and huge favors low-population red states. McConnell's entire career has been based on using this inherent advantage and total-war approach to ram his will down Dems throats with a Republican president and to stonewall and sabotage a Dem president. It baffles me why you think that will not continue. He will make damn sure that there is no robust recovery with Biden even if the Biden Administration and House pass laws to promote it because he will want to make sure that Dems do not get credit. Republicans will suddenly become deficit-hawks again and use their stronghold in the Senate (and now Supreme Court) to block everything and create pseudo-austerity once Biden takes office, so all of America's resulting misery will be blamed on Biden and Harris.

Ok that was just one example. In general, I don't think the US is in a Weimar Republic phase exactly because I don't think we're about to become Nazi Germany, though we do have tons of similarities to Germany in the early 1930s (before they started putting people in camps). If we do regress into fascism at some point, I expect it to be more of the Orban type in Hungary, less overtly murderous (most of the time) but more subtle and insidious. And it won't be forever either - that too will pass.

---

As I said before, what you describe is the fear and yes very possible and maybe even likely. I hope I haven't become the antithesis to BarelyAmazing, but it is hard to have perspective on yourself. I do find it affirming that most of my predictions, not just about the election, have come to pass in one form or another, so I don't think I am that far off from reality, and the PHDs in history and political science I speak to don't think I'm a nut (or at least haven't told me so).

In answer to your question, I live in CT and have lots of traditional financial conservative friends here. I also have family and friends in CA who fit this description I also have family in rural Oregon, Missouri, and Ohio who fit the classic Trumper description, and even some who are full Quanon. I also have done some phone and email banking to Georgia and got a first hand blast of Trump rage and conspiracy belief first hand (some of the things people felt comfortable saying let alone believing is downright shocking). So, I don't think I have skewed sense of the country's temperature, though I am not living in the Trump bubble. My hope is that a lot of these people are programmable and that when "the king" falls he falls hard. I think a very large portion of the Trump supporters will resent how they were deceived (though they will never admit they were deceived and will sublimate that anger to another emotion and target) and that they will start getting very different messages from much of the right wing media as it disowns Trump and reinvents the party. In pure hypothetical terms, let's say of the remaining Trump support 30% are with him for pure "economic policies" (yeah right), another 30% are with him because of media messaging and undying loyalty to the letter R (and knee jerk antipathy towards anything that media says is "liberal"), and the last 40% actually is deeply connected to the the cult of personality. I believe that over 50% of this support will abandon him the instant it becomes cool to do so. I think this gets you to a very small percentage of Americans who go on the Trump/NewsMax/OAN/Q rollercoaster ride. And that ultimately this splinter does more harm than good to the conservative voting block. I do not think we will ever see Trumpism rise up to be the power broker in the GOP again. More an annoying embarrassing sub party.

We'll see.

---

Fair enough. We'll see as you said. And as I said, I hope you're right.

You'll notice that of your actual original checklist, I only took direct issue with #5... I agree with several, not all, of the others, disagreeing perhaps with some of the other future predictions.

Edited to add: I should clarify to say yes at the time you made them, all your predictions were "future predictions." Above, I meant that I disagree with some of your predictions that are still in the future. Your predictions of the recent election results were mostly like predicting that an 11 point favorite in CFB would win outright (and indeed they did win, but didn't cover) and that they would force a couple turnovers - good predictions that ended up being correct but not earthshaking. Predictions about Trump denying he lost of course were no brainers, I'm sure you would agree! =)

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Yes, I agree. But the Biden becoming President Elect a few days before Thanksgiving was pretty choice.

blungld said:

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Cal88 said:

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I've seen a lot of chickenshlt behavior on these boards over the years (almost always by the "conservative" posters), but this has got to be the worst and most weaselly ever. After Cal88 declares all kinds of expertise and patronizing know it all posts about Trump winning easily in a landslide, and scoffing at anyone who disagreed or dared question him, he simply bails on the thread when it turns out he is wrong. No mea culpa, or "wow, I guess I was wrong," or congratulations...just literally ran away the moment it turned south for Trump. Didn't even stick around to discuss the developing story though we were supposed to listen to him spike the ball at the 30, 20, 10...fumble!!!

I have no interest in gloating, but come on man you were gloating yourself and acting like an ass, take your medicine. Or do you still believe you were right, or the election is rigged? Be honorable enough to acknowledge what happened.

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This Twitter account is now just posting nonsense about the election being stolen from Trump. Because of course it is. Some folks just can't admit to being wrong.

OneKeg said:

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Some of the things you say seem as outlandishly unlikely to me as bearlyamazing's raving predictions on the opposite side.

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Yeah, this guy lives in a fantasy land.

Quote:

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Trump just got the 2nd most votes for any presidential candidate ever (I think?), behind only the candidate he ran against.

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I keep seeing that metric, by the way - most votes ever. Utterly meaningless. We have the most people ever in the country.

Quote:

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And Republicans in the House and Senate actually mostly ran ahead of Trump. A victory for us Dems for sure, but how can you read this as a massive turning point or crossroads? Have you spent any time actually talking (without imposing your own views) with Republicans from other parts of the country? Particularly those in the exurbs and rural areas? America may not be what you think it is.

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It definitely is not. Their devotion to Trump is undying, which means two things. One is that Democrats have truly failed the country for people to think this guy was ever a good idea, which is something that 90% of Democrats have not come to grips with and are just as steadfastly pretending isn't true as the Trump voters are pretending that he is an advocate for anyone other than himself. The other is that they have difficulty telling what's true and not by using their own brains to figure it out.

bearister said:

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So in other words, Bernie and The Squad are going to make inroads with these guys:





*Face it, they are unredeemable low information voters that need to die off. I have no interest in understanding their pain. F@uck them.

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Amen, Bearister.

bearister said:

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So in other words, Bernie and The Squad are going to make inroads with these guys

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No, those guys are happy to respond to current Republican dog whistles.

Quote:

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Trump just got the 2nd most votes for any presidential candidate ever (I think?), behind only the candidate he ran against.

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Quote:

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I keep seeing that metric, by the way - most votes ever. Utterly meaningless. We have the most people ever in the country.

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Could be meaningless, but isn't. 2020 had the highest turnout by percentage of the voting eligible population since 1900.

I don't for a minute believe all of tRump's are legitimate....and that is why he is as mad as a March hare about losing. He hasn't been this angry since he had a hacker manipulate an online poll...and it still didn't work out for him. Read Michael Cohen's book.

GMP said:

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Quote:

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Trump just got the 2nd most votes for any presidential candidate ever (I think?), behind only the candidate he ran against.

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Quote:

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I keep seeing that metric, by the way - most votes ever. Utterly meaningless. We have the most people ever in the country.

---

Could be meaningless, but isn't. 2020 had the highest turnout by percentage of the voting eligible population since 1900.

---

Statistically true, but also missing the point. The 2020 election was THE GREATEST democratic (not talking about the party here) moment in the history of the country. 1900 looks impressive until you realize the amount in the denominator did not allow voting by women and most blacks.

In 2020 nearly all American adults are eligible to vote (if they can overcome some hurdles primarily established by Republicans). A higher percentage of Americans participated in democracy in 2020 than EVER before.

dajo9 said:

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GMP said:

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Quote:

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Trump just got the 2nd most votes for any presidential candidate ever (I think?), behind only the candidate he ran against.

---

Quote:

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I keep seeing that metric, by the way - most votes ever. Utterly meaningless. We have the most people ever in the country.

---

Could be meaningless, but isn't. 2020 had the highest turnout by percentage of the voting eligible population since 1900.

---

Statistically true, but also missing the point. The 2020 election was THE GREATEST democratic (not talking about the party here) moment in the history of the country. 1900 looks impressive until you realize the amount in the denominator did not allow voting by women and most blacks.

In 2020 nearly all American adults are eligible to vote (if they can overcome some hurdles primarily established by Republicans). A higher percentage of Americans participated in democracy in 2020 than EVER before.

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Lol. I'm not missing the point, I assure you.

GMP said:

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dajo9 said:

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GMP said:

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Quote:

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Trump just got the 2nd most votes for any presidential candidate ever (I think?), behind only the candidate he ran against.

---

Quote:

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I keep seeing that metric, by the way - most votes ever. Utterly meaningless. We have the most people ever in the country.

---

Could be meaningless, but isn't. 2020 had the highest turnout by percentage of the voting eligible population since 1900.

---

Statistically true, but also missing the point. The 2020 election was THE GREATEST democratic (not talking about the party here) moment in the history of the country. 1900 looks impressive until you realize the amount in the denominator did not allow voting by women and most blacks.

In 2020 nearly all American adults are eligible to vote (if they can overcome some hurdles primarily established by Republicans). A higher percentage of Americans participated in democracy in 2020 than EVER before.

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Lol. I'm not missing the point, I assure you.

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GMP, I know you like to argue but no need to take my post as a personal attack. The statistic, which has been highlighted all over the place, is missing the point. 2020 was not the best since 1900. 2020 was the best ever. Your point is even stronger than your argument makes it out to be.

I do think you missed the point of my post. Haha.

dajo9 said:

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GMP said:

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dajo9 said:

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GMP said:

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Quote:

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Trump just got the 2nd most votes for any presidential candidate ever (I think?), behind only the candidate he ran against.

---

Quote:

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I keep seeing that metric, by the way - most votes ever. Utterly meaningless. We have the most people ever in the country.

---

Could be meaningless, but isn't. 2020 had the highest turnout by percentage of the voting eligible population since 1900.

---

Statistically true, but also missing the point. The 2020 election was THE GREATEST democratic (not talking about the party here) moment in the history of the country. 1900 looks impressive until you realize the amount in the denominator did not allow voting by women and most blacks.

In 2020 nearly all American adults are eligible to vote (if they can overcome some hurdles primarily established by Republicans). A higher percentage of Americans participated in democracy in 2020 than EVER before.

---

Lol. I'm not missing the point, I assure you.

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GMP, I know you like to argue but no need to take my post as a personal attack. The statistic, which has been highlighted all over the place, is missing the point. 2020 was not the best since 1900. 2020 was the best ever. Your point is even stronger than your argument makes it out to be.

I do think you missed the point of my post. Haha.

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Nah, I understood your point and agree with you, and I did not take it as a personal attack. I was saying it was not lost on me when I posted those stats that "voting eligible" did not include at least half the population in 1900 (I'm not sure how they calculated it to know how the numbers are affected by racial disenfranchisement).

GMP said:

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dajo9 said:

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GMP said:

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dajo9 said:

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GMP said:

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Quote:

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Trump just got the 2nd most votes for any presidential candidate ever (I think?), behind only the candidate he ran against.

---

Quote:

---

I keep seeing that metric, by the way - most votes ever. Utterly meaningless. We have the most people ever in the country.

---

Could be meaningless, but isn't. 2020 had the highest turnout by percentage of the voting eligible population since 1900.

---

Statistically true, but also missing the point. The 2020 election was THE GREATEST democratic (not talking about the party here) moment in the history of the country. 1900 looks impressive until you realize the amount in the denominator did not allow voting by women and most blacks.

In 2020 nearly all American adults are eligible to vote (if they can overcome some hurdles primarily established by Republicans). A higher percentage of Americans participated in democracy in 2020 than EVER before.

---

Lol. I'm not missing the point, I assure you.

---

GMP, I know you like to argue but no need to take my post as a personal attack. The statistic, which has been highlighted all over the place, is missing the point. 2020 was not the best since 1900. 2020 was the best ever. Your point is even stronger than your argument makes it out to be.

I do think you missed the point of my post. Haha.

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Nah, I understood your point and agree with you, and I did not take it as a personal attack. I was saying it was not lost on me when I posted those stats that "voting eligible" did not include at least half the population in 1900 (I'm not sure how they calculated it to know how the numbers are affected by racial disenfranchisement).

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The 1900 calculation is:

White men who voted / white men registered to vote

Jeff Greenfield on November 4, 1980:

Jeff Greenfield on November 24, 2020:

B.A. Bearacus said:

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okaydo said:

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If Biden had truly only had 1,000 people watch his video, that would be an incredibly damning sign of just how unpopular Trump is. He couldn't beat a guy that only generated 1,000 views?