oski003 said:

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dajo9 said:

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It turns out Trump has been faking high jobs numbers in previous reports. July came in at a weak 73k jobs, probably to be revised down in the future following Trump's pattern of fake headline numbers that are better than reality. June was revised down by 133k jobs and May was revised down by 125k jobs. Through the last 3 months Trump's weak economy has generated only 106k jobs.

President Biden averaged about 350k jobs per month, or about 1 million for every 3 month period.

NOTE - I have learned how to report economics from my magat friends.

As I type, S&P 500 futures are down 1% and the 10 year yield has dropped to 4.28%. Trump is probably right that Powell should have lowered interest rates - the economy is weak though the weakness is moving up from the bottom. The top end is still doing well and boosting the stock market and dining out. Corporate media, which is full of people at the top barely know how to look past the stock market anymore.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

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For context, Biden was president during the reopening of the economy from a pandemic that cost millions of Americans jobs.

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For context, Biden was President during the reopening of the economy from a pandemic that created a great deal of inflation. If Biden is blamed for inflation then he gets credit for the jobs and Trump takes blame for his loss of millions of jobs.

dajo9 said:

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oski003 said:

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dajo9 said:

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It turns out Trump has been faking high jobs numbers in previous reports. July came in at a weak 73k jobs, probably to be revised down in the future following Trump's pattern of fake headline numbers that are better than reality. June was revised down by 133k jobs and May was revised down by 125k jobs. Through the last 3 months Trump's weak economy has generated only 106k jobs.

President Biden averaged about 350k jobs per month, or about 1 million for every 3 month period.

NOTE - I have learned how to report economics from my magat friends.

As I type, S&P 500 futures are down 1% and the 10 year yield has dropped to 4.28%. Trump is probably right that Powell should have lowered interest rates - the economy is weak though the weakness is moving up from the bottom. The top end is still doing well and boosting the stock market and dining out. Corporate media, which is full of people at the top barely know how to look past the stock market anymore.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

---

For context, Biden was president during the reopening of the economy from a pandemic that cost millions of Americans jobs.

---

For context, Biden was President during the reopening of the economy from a pandemic that created a great deal of inflation. If Biden is blamed for inflation then he gets credit for the jobs and Trump takes blame for his loss of millions of jobs.

---

Congress and Biden did fine up until the second half of his term when they kept pushing QE even after the reopening.

The current effective tariff rate appears to be around 18%
This will result in a smaller economy.

The tariffs have finally taken a big "bite" into the economy, especially with durable goods.
Uncertainty has consequences.
Just ask any CEO.

"We have the hottest Country in the world," - - - Donald Trump

oski003 said:

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dajo9 said:

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oski003 said:

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dajo9 said:

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It turns out Trump has been faking high jobs numbers in previous reports. July came in at a weak 73k jobs, probably to be revised down in the future following Trump's pattern of fake headline numbers that are better than reality. June was revised down by 133k jobs and May was revised down by 125k jobs. Through the last 3 months Trump's weak economy has generated only 106k jobs.

President Biden averaged about 350k jobs per month, or about 1 million for every 3 month period.

NOTE - I have learned how to report economics from my magat friends.

As I type, S&P 500 futures are down 1% and the 10 year yield has dropped to 4.28%. Trump is probably right that Powell should have lowered interest rates - the economy is weak though the weakness is moving up from the bottom. The top end is still doing well and boosting the stock market and dining out. Corporate media, which is full of people at the top barely know how to look past the stock market anymore.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

---

For context, Biden was president during the reopening of the economy from a pandemic that cost millions of Americans jobs.

---

For context, Biden was President during the reopening of the economy from a pandemic that created a great deal of inflation. If Biden is blamed for inflation then he gets credit for the jobs and Trump takes blame for his loss of millions of jobs.

---

Congress and Biden did fine up until the second half of his term when they kept pushing QE even after the reopening.

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You are a complete moron that I shouldn't even be bothering with. The Federal Reserve makes determinations about QE. QE peaked in April 2022 with a Federal Reserve balance sheet of $8.965 trillion. The Fed then began QT, reducing the balance sheet to $6.834 trillion by the time President Biden left office. Biden's Presidency was one of Quantitative Tightening. The Fed balance sheet was lower when he left office than when he entered office.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL

dajo9 said:

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You are a complete moron that I shouldn't even be bothering with.

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You are correct on ALL counts.

oski003 said:

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dajo9 said:

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oski003 said:

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dajo9 said:

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oski003 said:

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dajo9 said:

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It turns out Trump has been faking high jobs numbers in previous reports. July came in at a weak 73k jobs, probably to be revised down in the future following Trump's pattern of fake headline numbers that are better than reality. June was revised down by 133k jobs and May was revised down by 125k jobs. Through the last 3 months Trump's weak economy has generated only 106k jobs.

President Biden averaged about 350k jobs per month, or about 1 million for every 3 month period.

NOTE - I have learned how to report economics from my magat friends.

As I type, S&P 500 futures are down 1% and the 10 year yield has dropped to 4.28%. Trump is probably right that Powell should have lowered interest rates - the economy is weak though the weakness is moving up from the bottom. The top end is still doing well and boosting the stock market and dining out. Corporate media, which is full of people at the top barely know how to look past the stock market anymore.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

---

For context, Biden was president during the reopening of the economy from a pandemic that cost millions of Americans jobs.

---

For context, Biden was President during the reopening of the economy from a pandemic that created a great deal of inflation. If Biden is blamed for inflation then he gets credit for the jobs and Trump takes blame for his loss of millions of jobs.

---

Congress and Biden did fine up until the second half of his term when they kept pushing QE even after the reopening.

---

You are a complete moron that I shouldn't even be bothering with. The Federal Reserve makes determinations about QE. QE peaked in April 2022 with a Federal Reserve balance sheet of $8.965 trillion. The Fed then began QT, reducing the balance sheet to $6.834 trillion by the time President Biden left office. Biden's Presidency was one of Quantitative Tightening. The Fed balance sheet was lower when he left office than when he entered office.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL

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Thanks for the graph. It was 7.4 trillion when Biden took office. It peaked at 9 trillion in May of 2022. The economy reopened in late 2020 / early 2021. The Fed was cutting rates until late 2024, then Trump took office. The Fed is still doing QT in 2025. Biden reappointed JPow, and I am sure their goals were aligned when Biden chose him to steer QE and interest rates.

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Just take the L

Back to blocked

dajo9 said:

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oski003 said:

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dajo9 said:

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oski003 said:

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dajo9 said:

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oski003 said:

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dajo9 said:

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It turns out Trump has been faking high jobs numbers in previous reports. July came in at a weak 73k jobs, probably to be revised down in the future following Trump's pattern of fake headline numbers that are better than reality. June was revised down by 133k jobs and May was revised down by 125k jobs. Through the last 3 months Trump's weak economy has generated only 106k jobs.

President Biden averaged about 350k jobs per month, or about 1 million for every 3 month period.

NOTE - I have learned how to report economics from my magat friends.

As I type, S&P 500 futures are down 1% and the 10 year yield has dropped to 4.28%. Trump is probably right that Powell should have lowered interest rates - the economy is weak though the weakness is moving up from the bottom. The top end is still doing well and boosting the stock market and dining out. Corporate media, which is full of people at the top barely know how to look past the stock market anymore.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

---

For context, Biden was president during the reopening of the economy from a pandemic that cost millions of Americans jobs.

---

For context, Biden was President during the reopening of the economy from a pandemic that created a great deal of inflation. If Biden is blamed for inflation then he gets credit for the jobs and Trump takes blame for his loss of millions of jobs.

---

Congress and Biden did fine up until the second half of his term when they kept pushing QE even after the reopening.

---

You are a complete moron that I shouldn't even be bothering with. The Federal Reserve makes determinations about QE. QE peaked in April 2022 with a Federal Reserve balance sheet of $8.965 trillion. The Fed then began QT, reducing the balance sheet to $6.834 trillion by the time President Biden left office. Biden's Presidency was one of Quantitative Tightening. The Fed balance sheet was lower when he left office than when he entered office.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL

---

Thanks for the graph. It was 7.4 trillion when Biden took office. It peaked at 9 trillion in May of 2022. The economy reopened in late 2020 / early 2021. The Fed was cutting rates until late 2024, then Trump took office. The Fed is still doing QT in 2025. Biden reappointed JPow, and I am sure their goals were aligned when Biden chose him to steer QE and interest rates.

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Just take the L

Back to blocked

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Again, it was 7.4 trillion when Biden took office. It peaked at 9 trillion in May of 2022. The economy reopened in late 2020 / early 2021. The Fed was cutting rates until late 2024, then Trump took office. The Fed is still doing QT in 2025. Biden reappointed JPow, and I am sure their goals were aligned when Biden chose him to steer QE and interest rates.

Thanks.

oski003 said:

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It peaked at 9 trillion in May of 2022.

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Wrong.

The chart clearly shows that Total Assets at the Federal Reserve peaked in April of 2022
April 13th to be exact at $8.965 trillion.

dajo9 said:

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Just take the L

Back to blocked

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DiabloWags said:

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oski003 said:

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It peaked at 9 trillion in May of 2022.

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Wrong.

The chart clearly shows that Total Assets at the Federal Reserve peaked in April of 2022
April 13th to be exact at $8.965 trillion.

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That's fine. It was still 8.946 in May after dropping to 8.939 in late April.

oski003 said:

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The Fed is still doing QT in 2025.

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For context, while the Fed is technically still conducting QT, they slowed the pace of its balance sheet drawdown in April. The prior QT monthly cap for Treasuries was $25 Billion per month. It was reduced to $5 Billion per month, effective April 1st.

Many market participants viewed this slowdown in QT resting entirely on Treasuries, as a "soft" form of a complete stop.

Moreover, should the U.S. Treasury shift more of its refunding to Treasury Bills (as opposed to Treasury Bonds) this would in essence be a "stealth" QE given that the supply of bonds would be reduced.

Context is important.

Thanks.

Fed says it will slow balance sheet runoff process | Reuters

BearNIt said:

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The effects of the tariffs are just beginning and we are headed into bad waters. By the time we reach October, November, and December I picture a dumpster fire.

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It's quite possible.

You don't have to be a "rocket-scientist" to look underneath the hood of this economy and see that there isn't any kind of general expansion in activity across the economy.

For example, just look at which sectors produced job creation in July:

Health Care added 55,000 jobs.
This is above the average monthly gain of 42,000 over the prior 12-months

Social Assistance employment added 18,000 jobs.

Conclusion:

73,000 JOBS WERE ADDED IN JULY.

73,000 OF THEM CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO TWO LOW PRODUCTIVITY SECTORS THAT INCREASE MECHANICALLY ALMOST EVERY MONTH, AS SOCIETY GETS MORE OLD.

Everything else is stalling at best.
And without Health Care, the last 3 months of job gains would look like this:

-53,000 in May
-45,000 in June
-300 in July

So the only areas of actual widespread jobs growth is occuring in areas that are tied to aging and health, much of which is sustained by widening deficit spending.

This is not a good recipe for "growth" of the "Hottest Country in the World"

Only a moron would make that claim.

2-year yields are down sharply as expected.
About 21-basis points. As a result, the odds of a rate cut have in September have now soared to 88% from 40%.

But the 10-year yield is down about 15 basis points.

This tells us that over the long-term, conditions still warrant elevated interest rates, even if we're in a moment of stall.

In fact, this is the big problem for both the Fed and the White House.

If the goal is to revive the housing market or to reduce interest payments on the debt I (which Trump is interested in), it's not clear that we're going to get much juice from the squeeze on rate cuts given how the long-end of the curve is behaving. This is why rate cuts have very little impact on mortgage rates.

With Core PCE at 2.8%, I'd say that today's report makes it easy to envision an environment of STAGFLATION.

DiabloWags said:

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BearNIt said:

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The effects of the tariffs are just beginning and we are headed into bad waters. By the time we reach October, November, and December I picture a dumpster fire.

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It's quite possible.

You don't have to be a "rocket-scientist" to look underneath the hood of this economy and see that there isn't any kind of general expansion in activity across the economy.

For example, just look at which sectors produced job creation in July:

Health Care added 55,000 jobs.
This is above the average monthly gain of 42,000 over the prior 12-months

Social Assistance employment added 18,000 jobs.

Conclusion:

73,000 JOBS WERE ADDED IN JULY AND 73,000 OF THEM CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO TWO LOW PRODUCTIVITY SECTORS THAT INCREASE MECHANICALLY ALMOST EVERY MONTH, AS SOCIETY GETS MORE OLD.

Everything else is stalling at best.
And without Health Care, the last 3 months of job gains would look like this:

-53,000 in May
-45,000 in June
-300 in July

So the only areas of actual widespread jobs growth is occuring in areas that are tied to aging and health, much of which is sustained by widening deficit spending.

This is not a good recipe for "growth" of the "Hottest Country in the World"

Only a moron would make that claim.



Remember, the original jobs releases for May and June are Trump's economy. The revisions are Biden's economy.

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SBGold said:

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DiabloWags said:

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dajo9 said:

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Just take the L

Back to blocked

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The L has been bequethed!

MAGAts, performing the 3 card monte on the American people

UNITY OVER DIVISION

VOTE BLUE

Go Bears Forever

Go Bears Forever

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The L will belong to all of us as Trump calls for the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics to be fired for having the temerity to release real numbers that are bad. What happens to U.S. capital markets when the numbers behind them lose integrity?

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/01/trump-erika-mcentarfer-jobs-report-fired.html

dajo9 said:

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SBGold said:

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DiabloWags said:

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dajo9 said:

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Just take the L

Back to blocked

---

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The L has been bequethed!

MAGAts, performing the 3 card monte on the American people

UNITY OVER DIVISION

VOTE BLUE

Go Bears Forever

Go Bears Forever

---

The L will belong to all of us as Trump calls for the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics to be fired for having the temerity to release real numbers that are bad. What happens to U.S. capital markets when the numbers behind them lose integrity?

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/01/trump-erika-mcentarfer-jobs-report-fired.html

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The integrity of the data is ALREADY suspect given the massive Federal layoffs and hiring freezes in agencies like BLS which rely heavily on the ability to perform surveys through Field Operations called enumerators.

If the enumerators can't find a specific product in a certain city, they record the price of a comparable product for a next-best estimate. Having fewer workers in the field means the BLS has to rely more than usual on its next-best estimates.

"BLS makes reductions when current resources can no longer support the collection effort. BLS will continue to evaluate survey operations," the BLS wrote in a statement earlier this month.


https://fortune.com/2025/06/13/bls-data-federal-reserve-cpi-employment/

movielover said:

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Reductio ad Hitlerum.

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As opposed to
Reductio ad Bidenum
Reductio ad Obamaum
Reductio ad Hillaryum
Reductio ad Kamalaum
Reductio ad AOCum
Reductio ad Newsomum
Reductio ad Immigrantsum
Reductio ad Democratsum
Reductio ad Muslimum
Reductio ad Etc...um