Official BI apolitical COVID-19 Thread

94,473 Views | 980 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by bearister
smh
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figured the best place to bury this fiine story / tweet storm was at the bottom of the longest and allegedly non political CV thread, riiight? anyways, might give a rare measure of hope to broken hearts. the lede..

> Let's talk about what happens if you get COVID19 and recover. Are you immune to the disease? How long does the immunity last? And what does that mean for your life and for the public health and economy of our society? 1/ [of 37]

a well worth reading (wordy) account/scenario for beating CV..
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1240689935557865472.html

as first read on twitter..

not to be missed aside by @PeterKolchinsky
> We have veterinary vaccines for dog & cow strains. Human one's not been investment worthy, until now.

teaser from part #20 above..
> Here is a classic 1990 study of 15 volunteers who were *deliberately* infected with a *different* coronavirus squirted into their nose, with immunity monitored for a year. Immunity reached a maximum at 2 weeks. It had lapsed by a year later.
>>>
muting ~250 handles, turnaround is fair play
going4roses
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bearister said:

Professor Harold Hill said:

bearister said:


My initial instant to sink that ship and all the ingrates aboard turned out to be correct.

Coronavirus update: Grand Princess cruise passengers in quarantine refuse COVID-19 tests at Travis AFB

https://abc7news.com/health/grand-princess-passengers-in-quarantine-refuse-covid-19-tests/6029729/
hanky1 endorses this post.


Oakland let them in the port and now they are f'ing us.


The dumbest shhht ever
bearister
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I'm glad this crisis brings out the best in mankind:

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going4roses
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Getting ugly
BearNIt
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If you want to know how bad this is going to be just asked your nearest doctor, nurse, PA, NP, CNA, lab tech phlebotomist, transport personnel, x-ray tech, or the guy that cleans the hospital. There are not nearly enough protective gear and supplies to keep the folks above safe in the hospital setting. Some healthcare workers are being told to use old bras or bandanas as substitutes for N95 masks.
tequila4kapp
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Anarchistbear said:

A man on the moon was in 1969. This country doesn't have a public health or medical infrastructure to deal with a problem like this.

The virus hit Korea roughly the same time it hit the US. Now in a total reversal through systematic programs they are mostly clear and in fear of contagion from us- so maybe it's now the American flu.
True. And it is also true that S. Korea had an unusual outbreak that was almost exclusively confined to a large church. That makes it much easier to implement testing, do social monitoring, etc.
bearister
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"Some healthcare workers are being told to use old bras or bandanas as substitutes for N95 masks."

If I get a choice, I know which one I'm going for. Push up with black lace.
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going4roses
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We are now the snake eating it's own tail.
Big C
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Okay, I'm tired of joking around on the other threads. Here's two questions to which I have not heard definitive answers:

- I've heard that a vaccine is still 12-18 mos. away. Okay, I get the testing and all, but is there any way that can be fast-tracked to, say, 6-9 mos. if more resources are allocated and if, worst case scenario, this thing REALLY gets out of hand and we need to cut a few corners?

- Ventilators. What (and how long) would it take to, say, quadruple the number we currently have (as well as train the additional personnel to use/monitor them)? Are there any American companies that manufacture them? (If not, we f***ed up, eh?) I assume existing manufacturers are working overtime to make more right now. How long would it take them to make a bunch more? How long would it take to retool and make new factories to make ventilators? (and masks, gloves, etc, for that matter) Effing Elon Musk won't stop building Teslas during shelter-in-place, maybe he would like to change his eventual gravestone to read Hero Elon Musk and build some damn ventilators. (He must be an expert on how to build s*** in a hurry.)

(Perhaps the answers to these questions are all over the place, but I've yet to see them.)
BearsWiin
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Big C said:

Okay, I'm tired of joking around on the other threads. Here's two questions to which I have not heard definitive answers:

- I've heard that a vaccine is still 12-18 mos. away. Okay, I get the testing and all, but is there any way that can be fast-tracked to, say, 6-9 mos. if more resources are allocated and if, worst case scenario, this thing REALLY gets out of hand and we need to cut a few corners?

- Ventilators. What (and how long) would it take to, say, quadruple the number we currently have (as well as train the additional personnel to use/monitor them)? Are there any American companies that manufacture them? (If not, we f***ed up, eh?) I assume existing manufacturers are working overtime to make more right now. How long would it take them to make a bunch more? How long would it take to retool and make new factories to make ventilators? (and masks, gloves, etc, for that matter) Effing Elon Musk won't stop building Teslas during shelter-in-place, maybe he would like to change his eventual gravestone to read Hero Elon Musk and build some damn ventilators. (He must be an expert on how to build s*** in a hurry.)

(Perhaps the answers to these questions are all over the place, but I've yet to see them.)
That timeline may be cut slightly - Moderna is testing their vaccine in humans at the same time as in animals, from what I understand. There are many existing drugs that can help in the meantime. Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine can be coupled with azithromycin. The Japanese antiviral Favipiravir has been shown to be effective against mild and moderate cases; it might be good as a preventive too. The nice thing about these drugs is that they're already tested (and approved for use) in humans and we know what their effects are on people, and they're readily available in limited quantities that can be ramped up. We just don't know how effective they'll be on different patients or precisely what doses are optimal. Remdesivir looks like a very promising antiviral but it's still classified as experimental, so it would take longer.

FWIW, a virologist that I've spoken with thinks that any stopgap existing drugs listed above, or any of the dozens of others that are being tested, will take 3-6 months to get them in sufficient quantity into the hands of hospitals that need them. Existing stores of the quine drugs or Favipiravir will be exhausted quickly if they're approved for use on covid (and I've also seen rumors that there's already a shortage of the quine drugs because docs are prescribing them for themselves and their nurses so they don't get sick while treating others, kind of a Kobayashi Maru situation).

No idea about ventilator production but I have seen a few stories online (so they must be true) about local hospitals doing an emergency rework to their existing ventilators so that each can be used for multiple patients. I don't know how solid this is, but if it's possible, one can expect ventilator hacks to be distributed for general use while hospitals wait for more to come off of assembly lines.

tl;dr I have no definitive answers either
Unit2Sucks
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The problem is that nothing is actually happening. We absolutely should be fast tracking things and massively increasing ventilator supply but for now all we are doing is talking about it.

We probably need China to come to our rescue.
Big C
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Um, you're supposed to put the tl;dr version at the beginning. (But I wanted the longer version anyway. Thx.)
Big C
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Unit2Sucks said:

The problem is that nothing is actually happening. We absolutely should be fast tracking things and massively increasing ventilator supply but for now all we are doing is talking about it.

We probably need China to come to our rescue.

Oh, s***. Thanks for nothing, President Trup and hanky1 (referencing another thread). Hey China, no hard feelings here! I'd be happy to let everybody call it the Big C Virus if you can help us out a little!
BearsWiin
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Big C said:


Um, you're supposed to put the tl;dr version at the beginning. (But I wanted the longer version anyway. Thx.)
FWIW you asked if vaccine stuff can be fast-tracked if enough resources are thrown at the problem, and I don't think that's possible. It's not about resources at this point as much as it is the process of discovery that needs to be followed. We don't want to be giving people a vaccine without knowing what it does to them (it might make things worse), and how it might interact with other things. Unfortunately, that process takes time. We can maybe decide to cut corners on the process out of desperation, or maybe let the desperately ill sign waivers saying hey, I know this drug hasn't been sufficiently tested but I want it anyway. But that's different from just throwing resources at the problem.
Big C
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Okay, vaccine probably cannot be fast-tracked.

Now, who's the ventilator supply expert around here?
Unit2Sucks
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Really interesting interview with the epidemiologist who helped eradicate smallpox: https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-interview-larry-brilliant-smallpox-epidemiologist/?mbid=social_facebook&utm_brand=wired&utm_medium=social&utm_social-type=owned&utm_source=facebook

Among other things, he mentions something I've been talking about which is that once people recover they should get a wristband and go back to normal life - particularly healthcare workers, police officers, firefighters, etc. One concern I have about that, however, is that it may cause people to want to get sick earlier so they can get off house arrest. I would consider it and I'm sure I'm not alone given how much of the country is treating this epidemic.
bearister
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Andrew Cuomo's pressie right now is the best public statement on the matter I have seen. It needs to be posted here after he finishes.

THIS IS THE FACE OF LEADERSHIP!
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OdontoBear66
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Big C said:

Okay, vaccine probably cannot be fast-tracked.

Now, who's the ventilator supply expert around here?
Not here, but isn't GM tooling up to do same? We've gotta have them for the crisis, but I keep wondering what we are going to do with a zillion ventilators after the crisis---no small item are they like test kits? Guess we need to get over our current dilemma and worry about such things later. Insight from China and South Korea would be helpful.
bearister
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I figured many would be locked out of this so here goes:

" Screw this virus. Screw this virus that is already ravaging families, burying people in the hard isolation of the same four walls, leaving waitresses in anguish about how they're going to pay the rent. If you don't have a little hate in your heart toward this thing, you probably aren't motivated enough.

While we're at it, screw certainty. Over the past few weeks I've been bingeing on commentary from people predicting how long this is going to last and how bad it's going to be. The authors seem really smart and their data sets seem really terrible.

I'm beginning to appreciate the wisdom that cancer patients share: We just can't know. Don't expect life to be predictable or fair. Don't try to tame the situation with some feel-good lie or confident prediction. Embrace the uncertainty of this whole life-or-death deal.

There's a weird clarity that comes with that embrace. There is a humility that comes with realizing you're not the glorious plans you made for your life. When the plans are upset, there's a quieter and better you beneath them.

We're seeing the world with plague eyes now. We're all going through the same experiences. People in Seoul, Milan and New Jersey are connected by a virus that reminds us of the fundamental fact of human interdependence.

Most of us are self-distancing at the same time. Most of us are experiencing the same pause in normal life, undergoing deeper reflections inspired by that pause, experiencing the same anxieties and fears, reading the same memes. So many human universals.

The great paradox, of course, is that we had to be set apart in order to feel together. I've been writing about the social fabric for years now, but you really see it only after you've lost it.

It's like when you're starving, and food is all you can think about. Suddenly everybody has human connection on the top of mind.

All the little acts of social contact we took for granted now seem like candy. I miss choruses and sports bars, the weird way we all used to stare straight ahead in crowded elevators.

Judging from my social network, the absence of social connection is making everybody more ardent for it. People are geniuses at finding ways to touch each other even when they can't. On Twitter I saw a picture of a house where an older lady was self-isolating. Two neighborhood kids put on a cello concert on her front porch. Have you noticed that music and art are already filling the emotional gaps left by the absence of direct human contact?

Through plague eyes I realize there's an important distinction between social connection and social solidarity. Social connection means feeling empathetic toward others and being kind to them. That's fine in normal times.

Social solidarity is more tenacious. It's an active commitment to the common good the kind of thing needed in times like now.

This concept of solidarity grows out of Catholic social teaching. It starts with a belief in the infinite dignity of each human person but sees people embedded in webs of mutual obligation to one another and to all creation. It celebrates the individual and the whole together, and to the nth degree.

Solidarity is not a feeling; it's an active virtue. It is out of solidarity, and not normal utilitarian logic, that George Marshall in "Saving Private Ryan" endangered a dozen lives to save just one. It's solidarity that causes a Marine to risk his life dragging the body of his dead comrade from battle to be returned home. It's out of solidarity that health care workers stay on their feet amid terror and fatigue. Some things you do not for yourself or another but for the common whole.

It will require a tenacious solidarity from all of us to endure the months ahead. We'll be stir-crazy, bored, desperate for normal human contact. But we'll have to stay home for the common good. It's an odd kind of heroism this crisis calls for. Those also serve who endure and wait.

I wonder if there will be an enduring shift in consciousness after all this. All those tribal us-them stories don't seem quite as germane right now. The most relevant unit of society at the moment is the entire human family.

All those burn-it-down/destroy-the-system/anti-establishment tirades ring a little hollow, too. It's not the angry outsiders who are protecting us right now, it's the Establishment.

The whole culture of autonomy seems immature, too: I'm free to be myself! The people who are out there doing their own thing are at Spring Break threatening the lives of the most vulnerable around them.

We'll need a great reset when this is all over. We need to start planning a great social festival and ask the obvious questions: Why did we tolerate so much social division before? Why didn't we cultivate stronger social bonds when we had the chance?

In the meantime, as someone on my Twitter feed observed: Airport rules apply. If you want a beer at 9 a.m., go for it." David Brooks, NY Times
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OdontoBear66
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You should have been a writer, bearister. You tweak your reader very well. As I read excellent prose on crisis solidarity the best simile I could muster was 9/11. But 9/11 was in some ways different. In 2001 one's mind could isolate on "It's over there, it may come here".This is here and reaching and effecting the daily lives of all of us whether we like it or not. So let us hope you are right and a solidarity arises post crisis. In the meantime, bunker down, stay healthy and all of us do our part. Again, very well written.
bearister
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OdontoBear66 said:

You should have been a writer, bearister. You tweak your reader very well. As I read excellent prose on crisis solidarity the best simile I could muster was 9/11. But 9/11 was in some ways different. In 2001 one's mind could isolate on "It's over there, it may come here".This is here and reaching and effecting the daily lives of all of us whether we like it or not. So let us hope you are right and a solidarity arises post crisis. In the meantime, bunker down, stay healthy and all of us do our part. Again, very well written.


I hope you realize David Brooks wrote that brilliant piece. I put the entire column in quotes with his name at the end. Stay safe.
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OdontoBear66
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bearister said:

OdontoBear66 said:

You should have been a writer, bearister. You tweak your reader very well. As I read excellent prose on crisis solidarity the best simile I could muster was 9/11. But 9/11 was in some ways different. In 2001 one's mind could isolate on "It's over there, it may come here".This is here and reaching and effecting the daily lives of all of us whether we like it or not. So let us hope you are right and a solidarity arises post crisis. In the meantime, bunker down, stay healthy and all of us do our part. Again, very well written.


I hope you realize David Brooks wrote that brilliant piece. I put the entire column in quotes with his name at the end. Stay safe.
No I did not, and did not notice same. You should have left me with that great impression of artistry on your part. Good read. Cheers.
going4roses
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dimitrig
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going4roses said:



https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/coronavirus/sheriff-releases-314-inmates-to-reduce-coronavirus-risk-at-alameda-county-jail/2258026/
Yogi17
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going4roses said:


Why do people treat unattributed tweets as actual news without looking up info first? Are you the same idiots that repost chain letters and other non-factual items on social media? If I had a nickel for every time I've had to point out that something people decided to share with their whole contact list was dead-ass wrong, I could pay for Mike Bloomberg to run for president again for 3 weeks in four years.
going4roses
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"Idiot" ?

Did your optional reply require this disrespectful description?


bearister
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Keeping the Coronavirus from Infecting Health-Care Workers | The New Yorker


https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/keeping-the-coronavirus-from-infecting-health-care-workers

" Those of us who must go out into the world and have contact with people don't have to panic if we find out that someone with the coronavirus has been in the same room or stood closer than we wanted for a moment. Transmission seems to occur primarily through sustained exposure in the absence of basic protection or through the lack of hand hygiene after contact with secretions."
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Big C
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Meanwhile, outside the bubble, my sister-in-law and her husband, who live in a smallish red state, have flown to a larger purple state to celebrate his 40th birthday, leaving their 3 kids with my mother and father-in-law (early 70s). This would've seemed normal to me only two weeks ago, but now seems shockingly ignorant and/or selfish.

Life in America, March 2020, in about 40 of the 50 states: Cough into your elbow!
Yogi17
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going4roses said:

"Idiot" ?

Did your optional reply require this disrespectful description?
A good way to avoid being called an idiot is to not actually do idiotic things
going4roses
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Well in that case

Go F yourself
dimitrig
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Big C said:

Meanwhile, outside the bubble, my sister-in-law and her husband, who live in a smallish red state, have flown to a larger purple state to celebrate his 40th birthday, leaving their 3 kids with my mother and father-in-law (early 70s). This would've seemed normal to me only two weeks ago, but now seems shockingly ignorant and/or selfish.

Life in America, March 2020, in about 40 of the 50 states: Cough into your elbow!

I wouldn't get on a plane to fly anywhere unless my life depended on it. Could they have at least driven?
Big C
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dimitrig said:

Big C said:

Meanwhile, outside the bubble, my sister-in-law and her husband, who live in a smallish red state, have flown to a larger purple state to celebrate his 40th birthday, leaving their 3 kids with my mother and father-in-law (early 70s). This would've seemed normal to me only two weeks ago, but now seems shockingly ignorant and/or selfish.

Life in America, March 2020, in about 40 of the 50 states: Cough into your elbow!

I wouldn't get on a plane to fly anywhere unless my life depended on it. Could they have at least driven?


They could've driven in their Tesla, but it's about a thousand miles, so that would be a major inconvenience for them. (I know. Don't say anything.) Happy 40th birthday!
B.A. Bearacus
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bearister
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Big C said:


They could've driven in their Tesla, but it's about a thousand miles, so that would be a major inconvenience for them. (I know. Don't say anything.) Happy 40th birthday!


Did the dealership throw in the flamethrower in the trunk as a perk?

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bearister
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Opinion | A Plan to Get America Back to Work - The New York Times


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/opinion/coronavirus-economy.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/opinion/coronavirus-economy.html?referringSource=articleShare


*Is this column pay wall protected..anyone?
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