okaydo said:

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Dang: Is this the worst day so far?

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okaydo said:

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Dang: Is this the worst day so far?

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bearister said:

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bearister said:

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okaydo said:

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Cal88 said:

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Professor Irwin Corey said:

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This panic makes Trump being elected almost seem smart by comparison. The idea that you would shut down an entire economy for a virus that is mostly only lethal to people who are already have a compromised health care situation is literally the dumbest thing ever.

This nation is truly full of dumb people.

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You're a sociopath.

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bearister said:

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okaydo said:

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When I need sh@it from Leigh Steinberg, I'll squeeze his head. The snake comes out of his hole.

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bearister said:

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Professor Irwin Corey said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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I hear you guys but if we shut down elementary schools we are looking at accelerating the massive economic shock. Unless we can get the high school kids to babysit the elementary school kids until the summer starts. Juggling summer camps is already a mess, but with a virus going around I have no idea what to do with my 2 young kids.

I am fortunate in that I have a school-age nanny whose could probably flex to work more for us if our kids' schools shut down, but for many parents it will be impossible to find affordable help and they will end up with one unemployed spouse. Add that to the number of restaurant and other workers about to become unemployed as a result of social distancing and the cost to our economy from failing to get ahead of this problem when it was small just a few weeks ago will be staggering.

And sadly, because it's probably already too late, we are still going to have 9 figures of infected Americans.

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This nation is truly full of dumb people.

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Unit2Sucks said:

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How long before there is a flood of countries who stop all international flights to and from the US? Given that the WHO has noted our inaction and it appears we are resisting any efforts to spread CV, I can't imagine other countries will want to risk their public health on baseless claims by Trump that there is nothing to worry about.

Quote:

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keeping your kids out of school, which are going to close down later this month anyway.

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Cal88 - I'm not convinced that keeping kids out of school will help things (particularly elementary school age kids). They don't seem to be getting sick or at a high risk of transmission but having them at home is super disruptive and will cause more widespread economic distress. These efforts all will have regressive impacts on our country and will spike unemployment/economic distress.

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Cal88 said:

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Well he did say that he was open to being educated on the subject, so give him some credit. The problem is that there hasn't been much in terms of educating the public on the basic nature and dynamics of epidemics in the media.

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BearNIt said:

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Apparently the White House gave a briefing to members of Congress and when asked about the 4 million tests that are supposed to be in circulation by Friday couldn't confirm that this is indeed to be the case. Members of both parties said the briefing was a waste of time with some saying it was the worst briefing they had ever received. They said the administration had no real plan.

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BearNIt said:

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Apparently the White House gave a briefing to members of Congress and when asked about the 4 million tests that are supposed to be in circulation by Friday couldn't confirm that this is indeed to be the case. Members of both parties said the briefing was a waste of time with some saying it was the worst briefing they had ever received. They said the administration had no real plan.

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Cal88 said:

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This is a very good article, it's a very good, detailed summary of the pandemic, and what we should do about ti:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

Some takeaways and quotes:

The number of cases worldwide is much higher than the numbers published, the Bay Area for instance has 600 cases and that is doubling every 2 days, France might have over 100,000 cases already, the US total is likely over 10,000 right now.

• Countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China).
• Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%

Put in another way: Countries that act fast can reduce the number of deaths by ten. And that's just counting the fatality rate. Acting fast also drastically reduces the cases, making this even more of a no-brainer. Countries that act fast reduce the number of deaths at least by 10x.



Ventilators and ECMO can't be produced or bought easily. A few years ago, the US had a total of 250 ECMO machines, for example.

So if you suddenly have 100,000 people infected, many of them will want to go get tested. Around 20,000 will require hospitalization, 5,000 will need the ICU, and 1,000 will need machines that we don't have enough of today. And that's just with 100,000 cases.

That is without taking into account issues such as masks. A country like the US has only 1% of the masks it needs to cover the needs of its healthcare workers (12M N95, 30M surgical vs. 3.5B needed). If a lot of cases appear at once, there will be masks for only 2 weeks.

The worst is in the ICUs, when patients need to share ventilators or ECMOs. These are in fact impossible to share, so the healthcare workers must determine what patient will use it. That really means, which one lives and which one dies.

Conclusion: The Cost of Waiting
It might feel scary to make a decision today, but you shouldn't think about it this way.



This theoretical model shows different communities: one doesn't take social distancing measures, one takes them on Day n of an outbreak, the other one on Day n+1. All the numbers are completely fictitious (I chose them to resemble what happened in Hubei, with ~6k daily new cases at the worst). They're just there to illustrate how important a single day can be in something that grows exponentially. You can see that the one-day delay peaks later and higher, but then daily cases converge to zero.

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Cal88 said:

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This is kind of like how the bathhouses in SF were still running in the 1980s while AIDS was raging on. The political system is not well equipped to deal with such crises, especially when the media doesn't do its job (see Dr. Drew et al).

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Big C said:

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Right now, in the Bay Area, public schools are not closing unless somebody in or related to that school community tests positive. More testing (with the assumed dramatic increase in positives) will wake people the f*** up.

So, I was wondering why my kids' school district hasn't closed the schools. I go on their website: They are following the recommendations of the Alameda County Public Health Department. This makes sense, I guess, because one district unilaterally closing isn't really gonna make that much difference; we need to have ALL the schools close in broad areas.

So, Alameda County Department of Public Health: What's your deal?

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Cal88 said:

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This is a very good article, it's a very good, detailed summary of the pandemic, and what we should do about ti:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

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