That's how exponential growth curves work. Every day gets worse.okaydo said:
Dang: Is this the worst day so far?
Official BI apolitical COVID-19 Thread
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Last: 3 yr ago by bearister
yeahbut, the first of series. # long tailokaydo said:
Dang: Is this the worst day so far?
muting ~250 handles, turnaround is fair play
bearister said:
I've heard an off the record estimate of 10,000-20,000 covid cases (including incubating and asymptotic) already present in the US from a doctor with an epidemiology background who is on the frontlines, his estimate was extrapolated from the current growing daily inflow of patients to his hospital. Having a major celebrity like Hanks come out with this confirms his estimate, as from a Bayesian statistics perspective it would be fairly unlikely to have a top 10 celebrity like Hanks come down with the disease without a large enough base of infected population.
Edit - it turns out he has been in Australia, so his case doesn't provide much basis for the American covid population estimate.
Well he did say that he was open to being educated on the subject, so give him some credit. The problem is that there hasn't been much in terms of educating the public on the basic nature and dynamics of epidemics in the media.
Coronavirus on the high seas: Why the U.S. can't touch cruise lines - POLITICO
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/11/coronavirus-cruises-126426
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/11/coronavirus-cruises-126426
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LOLCal88 said:Professor Irwin Corey said:
This panic makes Trump being elected almost seem smart by comparison. The idea that you would shut down an entire economy for a virus that is mostly only lethal to people who are already have a compromised health care situation is literally the dumbest thing ever.
This nation is truly full of dumb people.
You're a sociopath.
Now that you say, it sure is....Professor Irwin Corey said:Unit2Sucks said:
I hear you guys but if we shut down elementary schools we are looking at accelerating the massive economic shock. Unless we can get the high school kids to babysit the elementary school kids until the summer starts. Juggling summer camps is already a mess, but with a virus going around I have no idea what to do with my 2 young kids.
I am fortunate in that I have a school-age nanny whose could probably flex to work more for us if our kids' schools shut down, but for many parents it will be impossible to find affordable help and they will end up with one unemployed spouse. Add that to the number of restaurant and other workers about to become unemployed as a result of social distancing and the cost to our economy from failing to get ahead of this problem when it was small just a few weeks ago will be staggering.
And sadly, because it's probably already too late, we are still going to have 9 figures of infected Americans.
This nation is truly full of dumb people.
I can tell you that when those that see patients on a daily basis are scared for their own health and that of family and friends that to dismiss this as a hoax or not give this the attention that is warranted is moronic. If just one person tested positive for the virus then all those that came into contact with the person have to be quarantined. One person who tests positive can decimate hospital operations and put other patients and staff at risk.
I'm worried about the adult workers at schools more than the kids. The death rate is comparable to flu for those under 40, but the death rate climbs very quickly over 40 and many teachers, administrators, secretaries and other workers are over 40 and many not in great health already.Unit2Sucks said:
How long before there is a flood of countries who stop all international flights to and from the US? Given that the WHO has noted our inaction and it appears we are resisting any efforts to spread CV, I can't imagine other countries will want to risk their public health on baseless claims by Trump that there is nothing to worry about.Cal88 - I'm not convinced that keeping kids out of school will help things (particularly elementary school age kids). They don't seem to be getting sick or at a high risk of transmission but having them at home is super disruptive and will cause more widespread economic distress. These efforts all will have regressive impacts on our country and will spike unemployment/economic distress.Quote:
keeping your kids out of school, which are going to close down later this month anyway.
Cal88 said:
Well he did say that he was open to being educated on the subject, so give him some credit. The problem is that there hasn't been much in terms of educating the public on the basic nature and dynamics of epidemics in the media.
If he still needs to be "educated" on any of these fundamentals, he's either very stupid or in deep, deep denial.
It will take you a while longer to figure this out than the rest of us, but eventually you will.
Here is a recent data point for you: the mayor of Seattle expects her city to have 70,000 infected citizens 6 weeks from now. Which also means that SF, LA or NYC will be in that range by May. Over 10,000 patients in those cities will be severe or critical cases requiring acute care, which is way above their current capacity.
This is a very good article, it's a very good, detailed summary of the pandemic, and what we should do about ti:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
Some takeaways and quotes:
The number of cases worldwide is much higher than the numbers published, the Bay Area for instance has 600 cases and that is doubling every 2 days, France might have over 100,000 cases already, the US total is likely over 10,000 right now.
Ventilators and ECMO can't be produced or bought easily. A few years ago, the US had a total of 250 ECMO machines, for example.
So if you suddenly have 100,000 people infected, many of them will want to go get tested. Around 20,000 will require hospitalization, 5,000 will need the ICU, and 1,000 will need machines that we don't have enough of today. And that's just with 100,000 cases.
That is without taking into account issues such as masks. A country like the US has only 1% of the masks it needs to cover the needs of its healthcare workers (12M N95, 30M surgical vs. 3.5B needed). If a lot of cases appear at once, there will be masks for only 2 weeks.
The worst is in the ICUs, when patients need to share ventilators or ECMOs. These are in fact impossible to share, so the healthcare workers must determine what patient will use it. That really means, which one lives and which one dies.
Conclusion: The Cost of Waiting
It might feel scary to make a decision today, but you shouldn't think about it this way.
This theoretical model shows different communities: one doesn't take social distancing measures, one takes them on Day n of an outbreak, the other one on Day n+1. All the numbers are completely fictitious (I chose them to resemble what happened in Hubei, with ~6k daily new cases at the worst). They're just there to illustrate how important a single day can be in something that grows exponentially. You can see that the one-day delay peaks later and higher, but then daily cases converge to zero.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
Some takeaways and quotes:
The number of cases worldwide is much higher than the numbers published, the Bay Area for instance has 600 cases and that is doubling every 2 days, France might have over 100,000 cases already, the US total is likely over 10,000 right now.
- Countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China).
- Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%
Ventilators and ECMO can't be produced or bought easily. A few years ago, the US had a total of 250 ECMO machines, for example.
So if you suddenly have 100,000 people infected, many of them will want to go get tested. Around 20,000 will require hospitalization, 5,000 will need the ICU, and 1,000 will need machines that we don't have enough of today. And that's just with 100,000 cases.
That is without taking into account issues such as masks. A country like the US has only 1% of the masks it needs to cover the needs of its healthcare workers (12M N95, 30M surgical vs. 3.5B needed). If a lot of cases appear at once, there will be masks for only 2 weeks.
The worst is in the ICUs, when patients need to share ventilators or ECMOs. These are in fact impossible to share, so the healthcare workers must determine what patient will use it. That really means, which one lives and which one dies.
Conclusion: The Cost of Waiting
It might feel scary to make a decision today, but you shouldn't think about it this way.
This theoretical model shows different communities: one doesn't take social distancing measures, one takes them on Day n of an outbreak, the other one on Day n+1. All the numbers are completely fictitious (I chose them to resemble what happened in Hubei, with ~6k daily new cases at the worst). They're just there to illustrate how important a single day can be in something that grows exponentially. You can see that the one-day delay peaks later and higher, but then daily cases converge to zero.
Thanks for all your input Cal88. Please continue...Don't let the Turkeys get you Down...
Apparently the White House gave a briefing to members of Congress and when asked about the 4 million tests that are supposed to be in circulation by Friday couldn't confirm that this is indeed to be the case. Members of both parties said the briefing was a waste of time with some saying it was the worst briefing they had ever received. They said the administration had no real plan.
BearNIt said:
Apparently the White House gave a briefing to members of Congress and when asked about the 4 million tests that are supposed to be in circulation by Friday couldn't confirm that this is indeed to be the case. Members of both parties said the briefing was a waste of time with some saying it was the worst briefing they had ever received. They said the administration had no real plan.
tRump, to say the least, is no rocket scientist. Unless he is scripted and reading it (or at least trying to read), it is a bit cringeworthy. His stream of consciousness does twists and turns in directions even he cannot anticipate. The course of his comments always follow the same directional course, however, and that is downhill.
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It sounded like the Soleimani briefing was going to be hard to top as the worst briefing ever, but you have to hand it to Trump - there is no low that he can't sink under.BearNIt said:
Apparently the White House gave a briefing to members of Congress and when asked about the 4 million tests that are supposed to be in circulation by Friday couldn't confirm that this is indeed to be the case. Members of both parties said the briefing was a waste of time with some saying it was the worst briefing they had ever received. They said the administration had no real plan.
Cal88 said:
This is a very good article, it's a very good, detailed summary of the pandemic, and what we should do about ti:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
Some takeaways and quotes:
The number of cases worldwide is much higher than the numbers published, the Bay Area for instance has 600 cases and that is doubling every 2 days, France might have over 100,000 cases already, the US total is likely over 10,000 right now.Put in another way: Countries that act fast can reduce the number of deaths by ten. And that's just counting the fatality rate. Acting fast also drastically reduces the cases, making this even more of a no-brainer. Countries that act fast reduce the number of deaths at least by 10x.
- Countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China).
- Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%
Ventilators and ECMO can't be produced or bought easily. A few years ago, the US had a total of 250 ECMO machines, for example.
So if you suddenly have 100,000 people infected, many of them will want to go get tested. Around 20,000 will require hospitalization, 5,000 will need the ICU, and 1,000 will need machines that we don't have enough of today. And that's just with 100,000 cases.
That is without taking into account issues such as masks. A country like the US has only 1% of the masks it needs to cover the needs of its healthcare workers (12M N95, 30M surgical vs. 3.5B needed). If a lot of cases appear at once, there will be masks for only 2 weeks.
The worst is in the ICUs, when patients need to share ventilators or ECMOs. These are in fact impossible to share, so the healthcare workers must determine what patient will use it. That really means, which one lives and which one dies.
Conclusion: The Cost of Waiting
It might feel scary to make a decision today, but you shouldn't think about it this way.
This theoretical model shows different communities: one doesn't take social distancing measures, one takes them on Day n of an outbreak, the other one on Day n+1. All the numbers are completely fictitious (I chose them to resemble what happened in Hubei, with ~6k daily new cases at the worst). They're just there to illustrate how important a single day can be in something that grows exponentially. You can see that the one-day delay peaks later and higher, but then daily cases converge to zero.
When you read about the REALISTIC numbers of people they're going to be able to test (after ramping up) in a huge population center like the Bay Area and they're talking about "thousands" (out of, what, 6 million?), you realize what a complete s*** show this is.
Okay, we're at the point where we need a lot more than testing to get this under control, but the problem is, they don't seem to want to close schools until someone there tests positive. If they're gonna do it like that, then everybody at a school needs to get tested. Alternatively, close down the schools right away!
This is kind of like how the bathhouses in SF were still running in the 1980s while AIDS was raging on. The political system is not well equipped to deal with such crises, especially when the media doesn't do its job (see Dr. Drew et al).
Yes, that is why the Hanks and the NBA players testing positive for this is actually a good thing for society (not for them, of course). It puts faces on this that people can relate to. I bet if it weren't for the Jazz players testing positive, the Pac 12 hoops tournament would be continuing today. Heck only 16 hours ago, they were playing... with fans in attendance (albeit not too many).Cal88 said:
This is kind of like how the bathhouses in SF were still running in the 1980s while AIDS was raging on. The political system is not well equipped to deal with such crises, especially when the media doesn't do its job (see Dr. Drew et al).
What good is mass testing anyway when you could test negative and then 5 minutes after you leave the test pick your nose and start down the path to infection (I'd start in on that before the door at the test center hit my rear end).
It brings to mind guys carrying a card saying they passed an AIDS test trolling singles bars in the 1980s.
It brings to mind guys carrying a card saying they passed an AIDS test trolling singles bars in the 1980s.
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Right now, in the Bay Area, public schools are not closing unless somebody in or related to that school community tests positive. More testing (with the assumed dramatic increase in positives) will wake people the f*** up.
So, I was wondering why my kids' school district hasn't closed the schools. I go on their website: They are following the recommendations of the Alameda County Public Health Department. This makes sense, I guess, because one district unilaterally closing isn't really gonna make that much difference; we need to have ALL the schools close in broad areas.
So, Alameda County Department of Public Health: What's your deal?
So, I was wondering why my kids' school district hasn't closed the schools. I go on their website: They are following the recommendations of the Alameda County Public Health Department. This makes sense, I guess, because one district unilaterally closing isn't really gonna make that much difference; we need to have ALL the schools close in broad areas.
So, Alameda County Department of Public Health: What's your deal?
Researchers at Oak Ridge National Lab Tap into Supercomputing to Help Combat Coronavirus - Nextgov
https://www.nextgov.com/emerging-tech/2020/03/researchers-oak-ridge-national-lab-tap-supercomputing-help-combat-coronavirus/163708/
https://www.nextgov.com/emerging-tech/2020/03/researchers-oak-ridge-national-lab-tap-supercomputing-help-combat-coronavirus/163708/
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SFUSD just shut down for three weeks.Big C said:
Right now, in the Bay Area, public schools are not closing unless somebody in or related to that school community tests positive. More testing (with the assumed dramatic increase in positives) will wake people the f*** up.
So, I was wondering why my kids' school district hasn't closed the schools. I go on their website: They are following the recommendations of the Alameda County Public Health Department. This makes sense, I guess, because one district unilaterally closing isn't really gonna make that much difference; we need to have ALL the schools close in broad areas.
So, Alameda County Department of Public Health: What's your deal?
Only a matter of time for Alameda County, IMO.
Seems like all the counties in CA should do this, at least the ones with densely populated areas.
I have no idea how this works: Who influences or "controls" the various county health departments?
Meanwhile, public schools in Ohio and Maryland are suspending classes. It's amazing how quickly this is all happening.
I have no idea how this works: Who influences or "controls" the various county health departments?
Meanwhile, public schools in Ohio and Maryland are suspending classes. It's amazing how quickly this is all happening.
By the way, much like I always take my cues on global warming from non-scientists, I always take my cues on pandemics from screenwriters.Cal88 said:
This is a very good article, it's a very good, detailed summary of the pandemic, and what we should do about ti:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
The article wasn't any better when it was posted on Rivals.
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