Official BI apolitical COVID-19 Thread

103,817 Views | 980 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by bearister
Unit2Sucks
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I think we need a safe space to discuss COVID-19 without devolving into a political blame game.

Please self-moderate and use this thread for general news regarding the xxx-demic.

If you want to mention the government response, please keep it to facts and not partisan bickering.
golden sloth
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Unit2Sucks said:

I think we need a safe space to discuss COVID-19 without devolving into a political blame game.

Please self-moderate and use this thread for general news regarding the xxx-demic.

If you want to mention the government response, please keep it to facts and not partisan bickering.


I give it 10 comments before it devolves in another political poop show.
Unit2Sucks
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I'm hearing through the grapevine of 3 people who flew back from Italy who tested positive at LAX, one currently at an LA area ICU. I can't imagine they are the only ones. Now that testing capacity is coming online, I expect to hear a lot more stories like this.

In possibly related news, LA is hosting a press conference at 830 tomorrow re COVID-19:

Eastern Oregon Bear
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We've had our first case here in my town of 15,000 people. He hasn't been traveling outside of area, so he most likely picked it up locally. It seems like a worst case scenario for spreading the disease as he works at our Indian casino and has been attending local high school basketball games. The casino and 2 or 3 high schools are closed for sanitizing right now. We're about halfway between Portland and Seattle and Boise, so our casino is a popular place to eat, gamble and maybe stay overnight. That's likely how it got to our area. I expect we already have other cases incubating. Maybe even me as I've coughed a bit today and my nose is very slightly runny.
Unit2Sucks
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Unit2Sucks said:

I'm hearing through the grapevine of 3 people who flew back from Italy who tested positive at LAX, one currently at an LA area ICU. I can't imagine they are the only ones. Now that testing capacity is coming online, I expect to hear a lot more stories like this.

In possibly related news, LA is hosting a press conference at 830 tomorrow re COVID-19:


6 new cases in LA.

The CDC is finally starting to unlock more testing by being "proactive."

Here's a report from CNN quoting Fauci:

Quote:

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said the United States should be proactive when it comes to testing for the coronavirus.

Fauci explained what he means by proactive testing:
Quote:

"Proactive means, I don't know what's in the community so I'm going to go to a bunch of emergency rooms and when people present with symptoms that look like they might be coronavirus, even though they have no connection with anybody who has coronavirus, they didn't travel anywhere, and test them to see if their infected."
Fauci explained that there aren't enough resources to have this at every single emergency room in the country.

"So what the CDC has done, they've started by taking six sentinel cites and now they are expanding that to many more cities. Essentially doing sentinel surveillance in surveillance in different places. And that will give us a good idea or at least a partially good idea of what's under the radar screen that we're missing," Fauci said.

CDC has said the six cities are Los Angeles, San Francisco, Honolulu, New York, Chicago and Seattle.

LudwigsFountain
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When my wife joined me in retirement last year, we booked a trip to Italy for this May with Cal Discoveries Travel, having heard good things about their tours.

The tour operator (Odysseys Unlimited) hasn't cancelled the trip. Have gotten several emails (latest today) saying they are monitoring the situation closely, have cancelled all trips to Italy through April 30, but are still 'hopeful' that the May trip can be made. I'll be astonished if it goes.

We won't be going. Odysseys has already said they will allow us to reschedule to a later date and in any event we have 'any excuse' trip insurance. (We weren't prescient about the virus, but have a grandchild delivery scheduled for April and wanted the ability to stay home in case of complications)

dajo9
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I have a cold (I think). When I sneeze or cough people look at me like I'm the devil.
LMK5
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Does anyone know how/why Italy got hit and not the other EU countries?
dimitrig
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LMK5 said:

Does anyone know how/why Italy got hit and not the other EU countries?
Wuhan and Milan are both heavily involved in fashion/clothing/textiles. There is a lot of travel between the two.
LMK5
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dimitrig said:

LMK5 said:

Does anyone know how/why Italy got hit and not the other EU countries?
Wuhan and Milan are both heavily involved in fashion/clothing/textiles. There is a lot of travel between the two.
Interesting.
dimitrig
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LMK5 said:

dimitrig said:

LMK5 said:

Does anyone know how/why Italy got hit and not the other EU countries?
Wuhan and Milan are both heavily involved in fashion/clothing/textiles. There is a lot of travel between the two.
Interesting.

https://www.fastcompany.com/90468465/the-fallout-of-the-coronavirus-on-the-fashion-industry-may-be-just-beginning
Cal88
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In Europe and N. America there has been next to nothing done in terms of containment, at least nothing of the scale of what was done in China. So basically what happened in northern Italy is going to take place all over Europe and the US, Italy has a lead time of a month. There is no reason to expect this not to happen.

China built 16 large makeshift hospitals to deal with the crush of patients, mostly in Wuhan. That's the kind of effort that will be required.
Unit2Sucks
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Cal88 - do you take any solace from the social distancing and other measures being undertaken by private businesses and the general public?

I'm hopeful that this will reduce the severity of the outbreak(s) and/or buy us some time until we can get our act together on testing. The fact that the virus does seem to cluster geographically gives me some comfort as well. The virus was circulating for a long time in Wuhan before they locked it down.
bearister
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Coronavirus: All you need to know about the illness



https://mol.im/a/8076109
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OdontoBear66
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bearister said:

Coronavirus: All you need to know about the illness



https://mol.im/a/8076109
Thank you bearister.....Never thought I wish I was "child" again, but Covid19 makes one think.
Cal88
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Unit2Sucks said:

Cal88 - do you take any solace from the social distancing and other measures being undertaken by private businesses and the general public?

I'm hopeful that this will reduce the severity of the outbreak(s) and/or buy us some time until we can get our act together on testing. The fact that the virus does seem to cluster geographically gives me some comfort as well. The virus was circulating for a long time in Wuhan before they locked it down.

Several countries including Japan, S. Korea and Italy have suspended all schools and colleges for the month, along with events with large gatherings. If we want to spread out the crisis and win some time those are the kind of measures that need to be implemented right away, they will work better in the early stages of the epidemic, sort of like how a fire is easier to extinguish in the early stages, The drastic measures China took seem to have worked for large cities outside of Wuhan.
blungld
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Man it is fun to read an apolitical thread!

The last line of article before was pretty scary: "Scientists believe it will then become endemic returning every winter along with flu."

That has been my question, what happens to a virus after it runs its course? Why do pandemics end? Have they infected every person they can or has immunity spread? What stopped the outbreaks of Spanish/Bird/Swine flu?
smh
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dajo9 said:

I have a cold (I think). When I sneeze or cough people look at me like I'm the devil.
theres lots of that going around. ms smh too. by now its obvious, sooner or later, corona will be as common as a cold. get used to it. # live free or die hard
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bearister
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The emerging coronavirus economy - Axios


https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-economy-quarantine-prepping-7a22fa1b-0293-474d-808d-fbe8f76d3448.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top
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Unit2Sucks
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Hopefully a vaccine works because CV is no joke.

If we are not able to contain it quickly, the social distancing measures will have a major continuing impact on everyone.

The government isn't equipped to deal with a virus like this - even if the tests are freely available there is no public mechanism to test people. People with mild or no symptoms aren't going to go to the ER to get tested. Since most victims don't need hospitalization, the testing we do will always under represent the pandemic. The reason other countries can do better is because they can contact trace and test everyone. We aren't even close to having that sort of capability within our healthcare system.

I'm taking steps to minimize (but not eliminate) my contacts for a while. No ubers, no public transportation, trying to avoid restaurants and other risky public spaces, working from home more regularly, not flying anywhere, etc. I have two young school age kids, so not much I can do there but I'm hopeful that they are naturally more or less immune.

I never thought I would take the posture of a doomsdayer but here we are.
bearister
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A coronavirus danger: Touching your face. Here is how to stop doing it


https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-04/coronavirus-danger-touching-your-face-how-to-stop-doing-it
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dimitrig
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bearister said:

A coronavirus danger: Touching your face. Here is how to stop doing it


https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-04/coronavirus-danger-touching-your-face-how-to-stop-doing-it

I find this works:

Cal88
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We need to implement proactive drastic measures to curb the spread right now, as opposed to waiting for the inevitable rise in cases, the earlier those are in place, the more efficient they will be. Here's a very relevant data set from the Spanish Flu:




Closing schools, shutting down large events early ahead of the storm is the equivalent of controlled burns of brush and trees downwind from a large distant fire that is bound to hit the area.

Schools and colleges should at least start setting up a schedule for remote online teaching for the reminder of the Spring semester now and implement telecommuting for their students, in preparation of schools being suspended. All schools will eventually shut down by April, waiting till then will only make the epidemic harder to control.


Short paper by statistician Nassim Taleb:
Quote:

Systemic Risk of Pandemic via Novel Pathogens Coronavirus:

A Note


The novel coronavirus emerging out of Wuhan, China has been identified as a deadly strain that is also highly contagious. The response by China to date has included travel restrictions on tens of millions across several major cities in an effort to slow its spread. Despite this, positively identified cases have already been detected in many countries spanning the globe and there are doubts such containment would be effective. This note outlines some principles to bear in relation to such a process.

...

Conclusion:

Standard individual-scale policy approaches such as isolation, contact tracing and monitoring are rapidly (computationally) overwhelmed in the face of mass infection, and thus also cannot be relied upon to stop a pandemic. Multiscale population approaches including drastically pruning contact networks using collective boundaries and social behavior change, and community self-monitoring, are essential.

Together, these observations lead to the necessity of a precautionary approach to current and potential pandemic outbreaks that must include constraining mobility patterns in the early stages of an outbreak, especially when little is known about the true parameters of the pathogen.

It will cost something to reduce mobility in the short term, but to fail do so will eventually cost everythingif not from this event, then one in the future. Outbreaks are inevitable, but an appropriately precautionary response can mitigate systemic risk to the globe at large. But policy- and decision-makers must act swiftly and avoid the fallacy that to have an appropriate respect for uncertainty in the face of possible irreversible catastrophe amounts to "paranoia," or the converse a belief that nothing can be done.

https://necsi.edu/systemic-risk-of-pandemic-via-novel-pathogens-coronavirus-a-note
smh
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reposted from another place..

You've likely heard about the Coronavirus (officially called "2019-Novel Coronavirus" or "COVID-19") in the news. While there isn't a vaccine yet and the immediate health risk remains low, Medicare is still here to help.

Your Medicare Part B (Medical Insurance) covers a test to see if you have Coronavirus. This test is covered when your doctor or a health care provider orders it, if you get the test on or after February 4, 2020. You usually pay nothing for Medicare-covered clinical diagnostic laboratory tests.

To prevent the spread of this illness or other illnesses, including the flu:
  • Wash your hands often with soap and water,
  • Cover your mouth and nose when you cough or sneeze,
  • Stay home when you're sick, and
  • See your doctor if you think you're ill.
Visit The Centers for Disease Control website for information on the Coronavirus.
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Big C
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bearister said:

A coronavirus danger: Touching your face. Here is how to stop doing it


https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-04/coronavirus-danger-touching-your-face-how-to-stop-doing-it

I don't know. Okay, small sample size, but I touch my face all the damned time. If some people are germaphobes, then I would be the anti-germaphobe. I get 1-2 colds a year. About average? ONE TIME IN MY ADULT LIFE I had a virus that seemed like classic influenza (7-8 years ago and no fun). I am very affectionate with my little kids: They seem to get viruses an average amount, or less, compared to their peers.

What's up with that?

PS: If I completely stop posting here some time this year, oops, s*** finally caught up with me.
Unit2Sucks
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Cal88 said:

We need to implement proactive drastic measures to curb the spread right now, as opposed to waiting for the inevitable rise in cases, the earlier those are in place, the more efficient they will be. Here's a very relevant data set from the Spanish Flu:
I hear you but isn't age a key differentiating factor between that epidemic? Spanish Flu seemed particularly damaging to young adults whereas children seem largely resistant to COVID-19. In addition to the fact that children don't seem to pick it up as easily, I've read that children to family transmission is also quite low, for whatever reason.

Seems like we need to shut down public transportation and large workplaces if we really want to limit the spread but that isn't going to happen in large scale until we see massive numbers testing positive. Since we aren't really testing in large numbers yet, it will probably be far too late by the time we realize what we needed to have done.
bearister
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Big C said:

bearister said:

A coronavirus danger: Touching your face. Here is how to stop doing it


https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-04/coronavirus-danger-touching-your-face-how-to-stop-doing-it

I don't know. Okay, small sample size, but I touch my face all the damned time. If some people are germaphobes, then I would be the anti-germaphobe. I get 1-2 colds a year. About average? ONE TIME IN MY ADULT LIFE I had a virus that seemed like classic influenza (7-8 years ago and no fun). I am very affectionate with my little kids: They seem to get viruses an average amount, or less, compared to their peers.

What's up with that?

PS: If completely stop posting here some time this year, oops, s*** finally caught up with me.


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Big C
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I WISH that were me, licking Tina Fey. But alas...
bearister
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Big C said:

I WISH that were me, licking Tina Fey. But alas...



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bearister
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GBear4Life
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Netflix just added "Outbreak" from 1995. Great timing.
GBear4Life
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Wherever corona is discovered, declare Martial Law.
bearister
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GBear4Life said:

Netflix just added "Outbreak" from 1995. Great timing.


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bearister
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bearister
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Coronavirus panic sells as alarmist information flies on social media - Axios


https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-social-media-b56326b6-ab16-4c8a-bc86-e29b06e5ab2b.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top

Coronavirus rattles travelers and airlines - Axios


https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-travel-fear-airlines-4a8f520b-f4b0-469d-ac04-653a19c369f9.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top
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