Yes, they seem to be in that in-between plateau of semi-normalcy that the rest of east Asia (Japan, Korea, Taiwan) is in right now. China has apparently dismantled some of the mega makeshift hospitals they're built in January. Japan has been the most relaxed, they were almost a bit in denial as they were still pushing for the Olympics to go on, and only postponed it yesterday after countries like Canada cancelled their participation. It would be interesting to see if they are going to tighten things up now that the Summer Olympics are off.

dimitrig said:

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OaktownBear said:

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dimitrig said:

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Anarchistbear said:

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Millions of people streamed out of Wuhan right before Chinese New Years to all parts of the country. I don't understand why all of China was not more debilitated. Sure there were outbreaks in Shanghai and Beijing but the secondary outbreaks were less severe. It could be the government measures or perhaps the virus mutates when hosts are less opportunistic

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The Chinese cannot be trusted. We have no idea what happened over there.

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You are right they cannot be trusted to report accurate data, but they can't hide major virus outbreaks. They can fudge the numbers, but if there was a second Wuhan, we'd know.

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In my initial post I started to write down a lot of scenarios why other cities were not so impacted. Some are very outlandish (e.g., they had already vaccinated the population based on previous information) and some are not. The truth is, we don't really know. I wouldn't put anything past the Chinese. Maybe even THEY don't understand it.

---

So far, the Bay Area curve is flattening. Let's all hope that stays true. I think it is fair to assume at least initially that if it holds true it is because our area took dramatic steps earlier than anyone else in the country and it did not just start when the Bay Area health departments shut everything down or Gavin made his proclamation. Major employers were shutting offices a couple weeks before. A week before Gavin's announcement, downtown SF was a ghost town.

China was at ground zero. They had the most relevant data at the earliest. They were slow in their initial response wanting to tamp down rumors of an outbreak. That screwed Wuhan. But once the outbreak was clear, they broke all glass in case of emergency, signaled every red alert. Especially knowing people were going to be travelling after Chinese New year. They also have the ability to shut down EVERYTHING, not to kindly ask. My wife has relatives in China. They are fine criticizing their government. For the most part the government does not interfere with them. But they know what lines not to cross. They know when and where the Chinese government means business. If the Chinese government decides to interfere with your life, they really interfere. If the Chinese government has speakers everywhere saying do not leave your house, you do not leave your house.

The West and China are VERY different from each other both in culture and in law and governance. That makes it difficult much of the time to understand each other. China is not one for dissent. They are not big on minorities, minority religion, or minority opinions. Do they do things we wouldn't? Absolutely. Will they gun down a bunch of students on the main square for what they believe is the greater good? Or their greater good? Absolutely. They aren't just random effing crazy, though. They aren't "capable of anything". This is important because our own response may depend on understanding their motivations.

The data coming out of China is untrustworthy because their own people are sensitive to poor government response to health issues like disease and pollution. Early on in the outbreak there was a "here we go again!" response from their people. They will take steps to tamp down public discord including pulling doctors who report a potential new virus outside official channels for some healthy intimidation. Yes, they will easily cut the numbers in half on cases and deaths if they can get away with it. Their motivation is keeping their people in check and that is what we need to be thinking of when we look at their response and what worked there an what didn't. Not cheap conspiracies.

As Sherlock would say, "balance of the probabilities". China's cities were locked down when for most of them they had a manageable number of cases. That is very likely the reason they were able to keep it from spreading as an epidemic outside Wuhan. And that is important because we are missing our chance in communities all across America that could stamp this out right now when they only have a few cases, but will not be able to if they take no measures for the next two weeks.

OaktownBear said:

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dimitrig said:

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OaktownBear said:

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dimitrig said:

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Anarchistbear said:

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Millions of people streamed out of Wuhan right before Chinese New Years to all parts of the country. I don't understand why all of China was not more debilitated. Sure there were outbreaks in Shanghai and Beijing but the secondary outbreaks were less severe. It could be the government measures or perhaps the virus mutates when hosts are less opportunistic

---

The Chinese cannot be trusted. We have no idea what happened over there.

---

You are right they cannot be trusted to report accurate data, but they can't hide major virus outbreaks. They can fudge the numbers, but if there was a second Wuhan, we'd know.

---

In my initial post I started to write down a lot of scenarios why other cities were not so impacted. Some are very outlandish (e.g., they had already vaccinated the population based on previous information) and some are not. The truth is, we don't really know. I wouldn't put anything past the Chinese. Maybe even THEY don't understand it.

---

So far, the Bay Area curve is flattening. Let's all hope that stays true. I think it is fair to assume at least initially that if it holds true it is because our area took dramatic steps earlier than anyone else in the country and it did not just start when the Bay Area health departments shut everything down or Gavin made his proclamation. Major employers were shutting offices a couple weeks before. A week before Gavin's announcement, downtown SF was a ghost town.

China was at ground zero. They had the most relevant data at the earliest. They were slow in their initial response wanting to tamp down rumors of an outbreak. That screwed Wuhan. But once the outbreak was clear, they broke all glass in case of emergency, signaled every red alert. Especially knowing people were going to be travelling after Chinese New year. They also have the ability to shut down EVERYTHING, not to kindly ask. My wife has relatives in China. They are fine criticizing their government. For the most part the government does not interfere with them. But they know what lines not to cross. They know when and where the Chinese government means business. If the Chinese government decides to interfere with your life, they really interfere. If the Chinese government has speakers everywhere saying do not leave your house, you do not leave your house.

The West and China are VERY different from each other both in culture and in law and governance. That makes it difficult much of the time to understand each other. China is not one for dissent. They are not big on minorities, minority religion, or minority opinions. Do they do things we wouldn't? Absolutely. Will they gun down a bunch of students on the main square for what they believe is the greater good? Or their greater good? Absolutely. They aren't just random effing crazy, though. They aren't "capable of anything". This is important because our own response may depend on understanding their motivations.

The data coming out of China is untrustworthy because their own people are sensitive to poor government response to health issues like disease and pollution. Early on in the outbreak there was a "here we go again!" response from their people. They will take steps to tamp down public discord including pulling doctors who report a potential new virus outside official channels for some healthy intimidation. Yes, they will easily cut the numbers in half on cases and deaths if they can get away with it. Their motivation is keeping their people in check and that is what we need to be thinking of when we look at their response and what worked there an what didn't. Not cheap conspiracies.

As Sherlock would say, "balance of the probabilities". China's cities were locked down when for most of them they had a manageable number of cases. That is very likely the reason they were able to keep it from spreading as an epidemic outside Wuhan. And that is important because we are missing our chance in communities all across America that could stamp this out right now when they only have a few cases, but will not be able to if they take no measures for the next two weeks.

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I appreciate you taking the time to write this.

However, there is a lot we don't understand.

17 people out of 65 at a birthday party here in LA tested positive for COVID-19. On the Diamond Princess 712 out of 3711. So about 20% in both instances - with one being a single event.

If even a few people made it out of Wuhan with the virus before the lockdown (and we know some did) you would expect at a minimum the same sorts of numbers of cases you see here in California. Shanghai has reported only 338 indigenous cases. Beijing has reported only 416. Those numbers seem improbably low.

Either China has stopped reporting all but the most serious cases, they have been incredibly lucky, or something else is going on. Edit: I just read that China does not include asymptomatic cases in its official numbers. That explains some of the discrepancy but not near enough.

I suspect one factor is that most Chinese already possessed PPE like masks and it was just a matter of using them. Most Americans don't have them and would feel self-conscious using them - although not so much now. It is sort of like how the Israelis all had gas masks and training on how to use them during the First Gulf War. The Chinese have been through this before. I imagine Americans will be a lot better prepared next time.

If our government was serious they would not waste time and trillions of dollars propping up the stock market and they would be distributing masks, goggles, smocks, gloves, and hand sanitizer at locations like public libraries in each major city.

I think if enough citizens saw the government doing that then they might take this more seriously. However, if our President doesn't then why should anyone else?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074938/chinese-studies-link-quarantines-coronavirus-mutations-may-make

Anarchistbear said:

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https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074938/chinese-studies-link-quarantines-coronavirus-mutations-may-make

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This is interesting article. I was wondering if the disease had mutated to be more infectious or deadly as it spread throughout the world, potentially leading to one area having a worse strain of the disease than another.

Wow, today's Oakland Trib looks different.

where did you find this ?

Strauss Howe generational theory

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generational_theory

Coronavirus shelter-at-home orders are largely in states with Democratic governors - Axios


https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-state-stay-at-home-orders-d24a664b-c2cb-4f63-9436-729d3f634588.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top

BearChemist said:

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Lock her up!

This is a fact not subject to partisan debate:

Op-Ed: Trump may want us back to work by Easter. But he can't order it - Los Angeles Times


https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2020-03-25/op-ed-trump-doesnt-have-the-authority-to-order-the-country-back-to-work-by-easter-heres-why

bearister said:

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This is a fact not subject to partisan debate:

Op-Ed: Trump may want us back to work by Easter. But he can't order it - Los Angeles Times


https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2020-03-25/op-ed-trump-doesnt-have-the-authority-to-order-the-country-back-to-work-by-easter-heres-why

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Not to mention, businesses can claim they are "open for business" but their employees may refuse to show up.

This is great news for American health workers (and us, clearly):
https://www.seiu-uhw.org/press/union-locates-massive-supply-of-n95-masks/

chazzed said:

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This is great news for American health workers (and us, clearly):
https://www.seiu-uhw.org/press/union-locates-massive-supply-of-n95-masks/

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This is such great news that I was concerned it was Fake News (it isn't). I will be following this story and am interested to know details of how they found them; who is the supplier; how long have they been ready to ship; and why didn't the Federal government figure this out? tRump Crime Family probably owns them.


*" While we are pleased with these initial results, we recognize they are stopgap measures in light of the estimated 3.5 billion masks that could be needed during this pandemic." NBC Bay Area

So I don't want to pretend that this is a miracle cure or anything like that but lots of countries are using blood from recovered patients to treat sick people.

Given that most people who get sick don't get super sick, there should be a lot of people who have antibodies and whose blood could be helpful.

The current issue is we don't have an antibody test yet in the US but it could be available and mass-produced within months. Of course this all needs to be proven in trials, but that is in process overseas as we speak.

I don't think we can keep the country shut down indefinitely; at some point we need to figure out how to re-start society. I think the key to that is allowing recovered people to go back to normal. In order for that to happen we need antibody tests.

Opinion | An Open Letter to President Trump - The New York Times


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/opinion/covid-trump-plan.html

" People want to know that you have a plan and are acting off it. Right now they think you have hunches and moods."

bearister said:

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Opinion | An Open Letter to President Trump - The New York Times


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/opinion/covid-trump-plan.html

" People want to know that you have a plan and are acting off it. Right now they think you have hunches and moods."

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In lieu of a comprehensive plan I would settle for some toilet paper, hand sanitizer, and disinfectant.

Why is that so hard for our government to provide for us? I am not asking to have it for free. I will pay market rate or even above market rate.

The government needs to seize the supplies and do it YESTERDAY! The markets are FAILING right now!

One of the most interesting topics to me:

Have I already had coronavirus? How would I know and what should I do? | Coronavirus outbreak | The Guardian


https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/23/have-i-already-had-covid19-coronavirus
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/23/have-i-already-had-covid19-coronavirus

" Coronavirus is actually quite a significant spectrum of symptoms, from people who are entirely asymptomatic and would have no idea that they have it to people with very mild, cold-like symptoms runny nose, congestion, sore throat to people with more flu-like symptoms high fevers, muscle aches, shortness of breath and cough. All the way up to people with severe illness, who we're seeing in the hospital with respiratory failure, requiring ICU care"



*It has been in our community since January, according to medical experts analysis of the man that died in Placer County (and had been on a cruise ship...but according to calculations, infected before he got on.

How the Pandemic Will End
The U.S. may end up with the worst COVID-19 outbreak in the industrialized world. This is how it's going to play out.

https://apple.news/ACoT5Ron2QDeFtaTUMK7R9A

bearister said:

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How the Pandemic Will End
The U.S. may end up with the worst COVID-19 outbreak in the industrialized world. This is how it's going to play out.

https://apple.news/ACoT5Ron2QDeFtaTUMK7R9A

---

Imagine going to a job that might kill you. This is what those that work on the front lines in healthcare grapple with every day as they kiss their spouse and kids goodbye. The protections that are needed to protect these healthcare workers are in short supply and in some instances are unavailable. Working in a hospital ER is like working in a warzone with no end in sight. You attempt to put the unpleasant thoughts of will this be the day that I get infected or does this person coughing and/or with a slight temperature have COVID 19, behind you. The hospital is at capacity but the patients keep coming and you keep providing the best care that is humanly possible. You look around and realize that some of the patients that you are providing treatment to will die leaving behind loved ones and there is nothing you can do except make them as comfortable as possible. You do this for 12 to 16 hours and make it to the end of the shift. On the way home, you wonder did I catch anything or am I going to bring anything home to my family? After all this, you realize that you have to come back to the hospital and do this all over again tomorrow. This is what is like to work in healthcare during this pandemic.

Count your blessings:

Stranded at sea': cruise ships around the world are adrift as ports turn them away


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/stranded-at-sea-cruise-ships-around-the-world-are-adrift-as-ports-turn-them-away?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

BearNIt said:

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bearister said:

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How the Pandemic Will End
The U.S. may end up with the worst COVID-19 outbreak in the industrialized world. This is how it's going to play out.

https://apple.news/ACoT5Ron2QDeFtaTUMK7R9A

---

Imagine going to a job that might kill you. This is what those that work on the front lines in healthcare grapple with every day as they kiss their spouse and kids goodbye. The protections that are needed to protect these healthcare workers are in short supply and in some instances are unavailable. Working in a hospital ER is like working in a warzone with no end in sight. You attempt to put the unpleasant thoughts of will this be the day that I get infected or does this person coughing and/or with a slight temperature have COVID 19, behind you. The hospital is at capacity but the patients keep coming and you keep providing the best care that is humanly possible. You look around and realize that some of the patients that you are providing treatment to will die leaving behind loved ones and there is nothing you can do except make them as comfortable as possible. You do this for 12 to 16 hours and make it to the end of the shift. On the way home, you wonder did I catch anything or am I going to bring anything home to my family? After all this, you realize that you have to come back to the hospital and do this all over again tomorrow. This is what is like to work in healthcare during this pandemic.

---

Most of the time doctors and nurses sleep in makeshift rooms on the premises, working in 72hr shifts. At least that was what I've heard from two different sources in NYC and Miami ICUs.

In the medical profession though most people are highly motivated and have a heroic streak, they are saving lives after all. Other professions that face very high risks could have a greater challenge motivating their workforce. I'm thinking of prison staff, or maybe even retirement home staff.

Big C said:

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bearister said:

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Twenty-five MILLION dollars? That's a LOT of money! Can they afford that?

Seriously, that is Cal Basketball Practice Facility money, not global pandemic money.

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Big C said:

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bearister said:

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Twenty-five MILLION dollars? That's a LOT of money! Can they afford that?

Seriously, that is Cal Basketball Practice Facility money, not global pandemic money.

---

.
I personally loathe the guy, but I guess we should reserve judgment until we see a list of what the other 606 billionaires and 135 billion dollar companies in the United Stated donated to the pandemic cause.

Coronavirus could get Silicon Valley philanthropists to give money to help local charities - Vox


https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/3/25/21187711/coronavirus-silicon-valley-donors-response-local
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vox.com/platform/amp/recode/2020/3/25/21187711/coronavirus-silicon-valley-donors-response-local

Report: Nike, Phil Knight committing more than $15M in COVID-19 aid | NBC Sports Northwest


https://www.nbcsports.com/northwest/more/report-nike-phil-knight-committing-more-15m-covid-19-aid
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcsports.com/northwest/more/report-nike-phil-knight-committing-more-15m-covid-19-aid%3famp

Big C said:

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bearister said:

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Twenty-five MILLION dollars? That's a LOT of money! Can they afford that?

Seriously, that is Cal Basketball Practice Facility money, not global pandemic money.

---

We don't know what donations to other organizations or other avenues of research they may be making. I'd expect they are doing more than this. Especially Bill Gates, who has been donating a lot of his fortune in recent years.

In 2018 the Chan Zuckerburg Biohub awarded 13.7 million for biomedical research in Berkeley, UCSF, and Stanford.

https://news.berkeley.edu/2018/09/26/cz-biohub-awards-13-7-million-for-new-collaborative-health-research/

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation donate $100 million to novel coronavirus relief efforts - CNN


https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/06/business/bill-melinda-gates-foundation-novel-coronavirus/index.html
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/02/06/business/bill-melinda-gates-foundation-novel-coronavirus/index.html

Confirmed Coronavirus Cases Is an 'Almost Meaningless' Metric


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/confirmed-coronavirus-cases-almost-meaningless-123550415.html

I don't know what all the Zuckerbergs are doing but I suspect that the $25m is just one check for research. They've already done other things like fund testing at UCSF. Their "initiative" is probably doing other things as well. I'm not sure any of the other self made billionaires has ever been as charitable this early in their careers as Zuck.

I went to order Subway last night, and the store .5 mile away has closed. Now The subway .7 mile away is my only option.


Meanwhile, in Canada...

Sigh. Not surprised but still disappointing to hear Fauci confirm how much bad news we have in front of us. It's going to be a rough couple of months.