dimitrig said:sycasey said:
Boom.
Remaining votes should be all mail-in and skew Dem. This is probably over.
If that is true then if Biden wins GA he will be POTUS no matter what else happens.
dimitrig said:sycasey said:
Boom.
Remaining votes should be all mail-in and skew Dem. This is probably over.
If that is true then if Biden wins GA he will be POTUS no matter what else happens.
Basically, if Biden hangs on to NV, AZ, WI (with mostly blue votes remaining to be counted in WI) -dimitrig said:sycasey said:
Boom.
Remaining votes should be all mail-in and skew Dem. This is probably over.
If that is true then if Biden wins GA he will be POTUS no matter what else happens.
Edit:
GA + AZ = 37 electoral votes
PA + MI = 36 electoral votes
OneKeg said:Basically, if Biden hangs on to NV, AZ, WI (with mostly blue votes remaining to be counted in WI) -dimitrig said:sycasey said:
Boom.
Remaining votes should be all mail-in and skew Dem. This is probably over.
If that is true then if Biden wins GA he will be POTUS no matter what else happens.
Edit:
GA + AZ = 37 electoral votes
PA + MI = 36 electoral votes
then he needs one of GA (16 EVs), MI (16 EVs), or PA (20 EVs). But he's significantly behind in all 3 of these, especially PA, so who knows what the chances are.
GA or MI only would make it a 270-268 squeaker. Ironically all 3 (which seems too much to hope for) would be 306-232, which was exactly Trump's margin in 2016.
OneKeg said:Basically, if Biden hangs on to NV, AZ, WI (with mostly blue votes remaining to be counted in WI) -dimitrig said:sycasey said:
Boom.
Remaining votes should be all mail-in and skew Dem. This is probably over.
If that is true then if Biden wins GA he will be POTUS no matter what else happens.
Edit:
GA + AZ = 37 electoral votes
PA + MI = 36 electoral votes
then he needs one of GA (16 EVs), MI (16 EVs), or PA (20 EVs). But he's significantly behind in all 3 of these, especially PA, so who knows what the chances are.
GA or MI only would make it a 270-268 squeaker. Ironically all 3 (which seems too much to hope for) would be 306-232, which was exactly Trump's margin in 2016.
I don't think WI is a sure thing either. The lead is hovering around 10k. Mostly Green Bay left to count, not Brown county which it's in. So it should be blue-ish but who knows.dimitrig said:OneKeg said:Basically, if Biden hangs on to NV, AZ, WI (with mostly blue votes remaining to be counted in WI) -dimitrig said:sycasey said:
Boom.
Remaining votes should be all mail-in and skew Dem. This is probably over.
If that is true then if Biden wins GA he will be POTUS no matter what else happens.
Edit:
GA + AZ = 37 electoral votes
PA + MI = 36 electoral votes
then he needs one of GA (16 EVs), MI (16 EVs), or PA (20 EVs). But he's significantly behind in all 3 of these, especially PA, so who knows what the chances are.
GA or MI only would make it a 270-268 squeaker. Ironically all 3 (which seems too much to hope for) would be 306-232, which was exactly Trump's margin in 2016.
I am pinning my hopes on GA, which sounds crazy given that all of the typical GOP states broke heavily in favor of Trump. I think Biden will lose PA. MI is a real wild card.
It's not going to happen, but can you imagine if Biden lost MI, PA and GA but somehow won NC's 15 EVs? It would be a 269-269 tie.sycasey said:OneKeg said:Basically, if Biden hangs on to NV, AZ, WI (with mostly blue votes remaining to be counted in WI) -dimitrig said:sycasey said:
Boom.
Remaining votes should be all mail-in and skew Dem. This is probably over.
If that is true then if Biden wins GA he will be POTUS no matter what else happens.
Edit:
GA + AZ = 37 electoral votes
PA + MI = 36 electoral votes
then he needs one of GA (16 EVs), MI (16 EVs), or PA (20 EVs). But he's significantly behind in all 3 of these, especially PA, so who knows what the chances are.
GA or MI only would make it a 270-268 squeaker. Ironically all 3 (which seems too much to hope for) would be 306-232, which was exactly Trump's margin in 2016.
NC is also still not out of the realm of possibility. Remember that they allow mail-in ballots to arrive after Election Day (just have to be postmarked on ED), unlike these other states. We'll be waiting on that one a while.
OneKeg said:It's not going to happen, but can you imagine if Biden lost MI, PA and GA but somehow won NC's 15 EVs? It would be a 269-269 tie.sycasey said:OneKeg said:Basically, if Biden hangs on to NV, AZ, WI (with mostly blue votes remaining to be counted in WI) -dimitrig said:sycasey said:
Boom.
Remaining votes should be all mail-in and skew Dem. This is probably over.
If that is true then if Biden wins GA he will be POTUS no matter what else happens.
Edit:
GA + AZ = 37 electoral votes
PA + MI = 36 electoral votes
then he needs one of GA (16 EVs), MI (16 EVs), or PA (20 EVs). But he's significantly behind in all 3 of these, especially PA, so who knows what the chances are.
GA or MI only would make it a 270-268 squeaker. Ironically all 3 (which seems too much to hope for) would be 306-232, which was exactly Trump's margin in 2016.
NC is also still not out of the realm of possibility. Remember that they allow mail-in ballots to arrive after Election Day (just have to be postmarked on ED), unlike these other states. We'll be waiting on that one a while.
No, it would be Trump-Pence if it is 269-269.dimitrig said:OneKeg said:It's not going to happen, but can you imagine if Biden lost MI, PA and GA but somehow won NC's 15 EVs? It would be a 269-269 tie.sycasey said:OneKeg said:Basically, if Biden hangs on to NV, AZ, WI (with mostly blue votes remaining to be counted in WI) -dimitrig said:sycasey said:
Boom.
Remaining votes should be all mail-in and skew Dem. This is probably over.
If that is true then if Biden wins GA he will be POTUS no matter what else happens.
Edit:
GA + AZ = 37 electoral votes
PA + MI = 36 electoral votes
then he needs one of GA (16 EVs), MI (16 EVs), or PA (20 EVs). But he's significantly behind in all 3 of these, especially PA, so who knows what the chances are.
GA or MI only would make it a 270-268 squeaker. Ironically all 3 (which seems too much to hope for) would be 306-232, which was exactly Trump's margin in 2016.
NC is also still not out of the realm of possibility. Remember that they allow mail-in ballots to arrive after Election Day (just have to be postmarked on ED), unlike these other states. We'll be waiting on that one a while.
If that happened, the House chooses the POTUS and the Senate chooses the Vice-POTUS.
Say hello to a Biden-Pence Administration!
Edit: Or more likely Biden-Ivanka
OneKeg said:No, it would be Trump-Pence if it is 269-269.dimitrig said:OneKeg said:It's not going to happen, but can you imagine if Biden lost MI, PA and GA but somehow won NC's 15 EVs? It would be a 269-269 tie.sycasey said:OneKeg said:Basically, if Biden hangs on to NV, AZ, WI (with mostly blue votes remaining to be counted in WI) -dimitrig said:sycasey said:
Boom.
Remaining votes should be all mail-in and skew Dem. This is probably over.
If that is true then if Biden wins GA he will be POTUS no matter what else happens.
Edit:
GA + AZ = 37 electoral votes
PA + MI = 36 electoral votes
then he needs one of GA (16 EVs), MI (16 EVs), or PA (20 EVs). But he's significantly behind in all 3 of these, especially PA, so who knows what the chances are.
GA or MI only would make it a 270-268 squeaker. Ironically all 3 (which seems too much to hope for) would be 306-232, which was exactly Trump's margin in 2016.
NC is also still not out of the realm of possibility. Remember that they allow mail-in ballots to arrive after Election Day (just have to be postmarked on ED), unlike these other states. We'll be waiting on that one a while.
If that happened, the House chooses the POTUS and the Senate chooses the Vice-POTUS.
Say hello to a Biden-Pence Administration!
Edit: Or more likely Biden-Ivanka
The House chooses but not by a regular vote. Each state's house delegation together gets 1 vote. So basically each state gets one vote and Dems lose that all day.
You're right I'm not sure, though I think Republicans will still lead. I'll edit my earlier post.GMP said:OneKeg said:No, it would be Trump-Pence if it is 269-269.dimitrig said:OneKeg said:It's not going to happen, but can you imagine if Biden lost MI, PA and GA but somehow won NC's 15 EVs? It would be a 269-269 tie.sycasey said:OneKeg said:Basically, if Biden hangs on to NV, AZ, WI (with mostly blue votes remaining to be counted in WI) -dimitrig said:sycasey said:
Boom.
Remaining votes should be all mail-in and skew Dem. This is probably over.
If that is true then if Biden wins GA he will be POTUS no matter what else happens.
Edit:
GA + AZ = 37 electoral votes
PA + MI = 36 electoral votes
then he needs one of GA (16 EVs), MI (16 EVs), or PA (20 EVs). But he's significantly behind in all 3 of these, especially PA, so who knows what the chances are.
GA or MI only would make it a 270-268 squeaker. Ironically all 3 (which seems too much to hope for) would be 306-232, which was exactly Trump's margin in 2016.
NC is also still not out of the realm of possibility. Remember that they allow mail-in ballots to arrive after Election Day (just have to be postmarked on ED), unlike these other states. We'll be waiting on that one a while.
If that happened, the House chooses the POTUS and the Senate chooses the Vice-POTUS.
Say hello to a Biden-Pence Administration!
Edit: Or more likely Biden-Ivanka
The House chooses but not by a regular vote. Each state's house delegation together gets 1 vote. So basically each state gets one vote and Dems lose that all day.
Are we sure? RIght now it's 26-23-1 Republicans. But it's the new Congress, not the current one. I'm not sure we know where that will land (but maybe we do).
OneKeg said:I don't think WI is a sure thing either. The lead is hovering around 10k. Mostly Green Bay left to count, not Brown county which it's in. So it should be blue-ish but who knows.dimitrig said:OneKeg said:Basically, if Biden hangs on to NV, AZ, WI (with mostly blue votes remaining to be counted in WI) -dimitrig said:sycasey said:
Boom.
Remaining votes should be all mail-in and skew Dem. This is probably over.
If that is true then if Biden wins GA he will be POTUS no matter what else happens.
Edit:
GA + AZ = 37 electoral votes
PA + MI = 36 electoral votes
then he needs one of GA (16 EVs), MI (16 EVs), or PA (20 EVs). But he's significantly behind in all 3 of these, especially PA, so who knows what the chances are.
GA or MI only would make it a 270-268 squeaker. Ironically all 3 (which seems too much to hope for) would be 306-232, which was exactly Trump's margin in 2016.
I am pinning my hopes on GA, which sounds crazy given that all of the typical GOP states broke heavily in favor of Trump. I think Biden will lose PA. MI is a real wild card.
Same with NV - looks pretty good but the margin is too close for comfort.
I guess that's true for this whole election. What a mess this is going to be with Trump basically trying to halt democracy (but not in AZ or NV where he could still catch up).
Oh I agree with all that. I was just trying to address the irony of Trump wanting a full count in AZ while wanting to halt it elsewhere during his disgusting speech a while back. I meant "he could still catch up {in his opinion}".sycasey said:OneKeg said:I don't think WI is a sure thing either. The lead is hovering around 10k. Mostly Green Bay left to count, not Brown county which it's in. So it should be blue-ish but who knows.dimitrig said:OneKeg said:Basically, if Biden hangs on to NV, AZ, WI (with mostly blue votes remaining to be counted in WI) -dimitrig said:sycasey said:
Boom.
Remaining votes should be all mail-in and skew Dem. This is probably over.
If that is true then if Biden wins GA he will be POTUS no matter what else happens.
Edit:
GA + AZ = 37 electoral votes
PA + MI = 36 electoral votes
then he needs one of GA (16 EVs), MI (16 EVs), or PA (20 EVs). But he's significantly behind in all 3 of these, especially PA, so who knows what the chances are.
GA or MI only would make it a 270-268 squeaker. Ironically all 3 (which seems too much to hope for) would be 306-232, which was exactly Trump's margin in 2016.
I am pinning my hopes on GA, which sounds crazy given that all of the typical GOP states broke heavily in favor of Trump. I think Biden will lose PA. MI is a real wild card.
Same with NV - looks pretty good but the margin is too close for comfort.
I guess that's true for this whole election. What a mess this is going to be with Trump basically trying to halt democracy (but not in AZ or NV where he could still catch up).
AZ was already called for Biden, so he's not catching up. NV is getting closer, but per the elections guru there (Jon Ralston) the remaining vote is mail-in votes from Clark County (Las Vegas) which probably goes blue and carries Biden over the finish line there.
BearChemist said:
MI presidential race is essentially tied, with more absentee ballots to be counted. In the senate race Peters is running 2% behind Biden but there may be still enough outstanding votes to catch up.
I think people easily underestimated how much the absentee ballots favor Dems in 2020, multiplied by the historic amount of these ballots. Still, when everything is said and done I will be interested to hear how the state polls **** up again, even more so than in 2016.
I was referring to places like WI (538 polling average had Biden +8), IA (Biden +1 or Trump +1), and OH. In states like GA, NC, and AZ the poll averages are actually with in margin of errors.sycasey said:BearChemist said:
MI presidential race is essentially tied, with more absentee ballots to be counted. In the senate race Peters is running 2% behind Biden but there may be still enough outstanding votes to catch up.
I think people easily underestimated how much the absentee ballots favor Dems in 2020, multiplied by the historic amount of these ballots. Still, when everything is said and done I will be interested to hear how the state polls **** up again, even more so than in 2016.
I think that when all the counting is done it will look pretty similar to a 2016 error (not more), everywhere except Florida. Florida is a weird situation with the Cuban vote swinging so hard.
Biden's bigger lead was enough to withstand the error, unlike Hillary.
I don't know man. With a tons of Dems chose absentee voting this year, the day-of-election ballots will screw heavily toward R. In FL and OH the absentee are counted ahead of Tuesday or on Tuesday morning, and the results are released as soon as the poll closed. This is why Biden had +12 in OH for a while, but as day-of-ballots are counted it switched back to R+8. These midwestern states just count the ballots in the opposed order, so it is to be expected that Trump would have a considerable lead on Tuesday night. Not sure what all the hand-wringings were about. With the amount of VBM in PA, the current R+11 gap will shrink over the next few days as mails arrive.concordtom said:
OMG.
I just woke up and MI turned blue.
WI is blue on the map.
What does this all mean???
I'm literally starting to cry! Could it be???? Oh, God, please let this nightmare be over!
I hope so. Where the hell does trump get that vote counting should stop?concordtom said:
OMG.
I just woke up and MI turned blue.
WI is blue on the map.
What does this all mean???
I'm literally starting to cry! Could it be???? Oh, God, please let this nightmare be over!
sycasey said:BearChemist said:
MI presidential race is essentially tied, with more absentee ballots to be counted. In the senate race Peters is running 2% behind Biden but there may be still enough outstanding votes to catch up.
I think people easily underestimated how much the absentee ballots favor Dems in 2020, multiplied by the historic amount of these ballots. Still, when everything is said and done I will be interested to hear how the state polls **** up again, even more so than in 2016.
I think that when all the counting is done it will look pretty similar to a 2016 error (not more), everywhere except Florida. Florida is a weird situation with the Cuban vote swinging so hard.
Biden's bigger lead was enough to withstand the error, unlike Hillary.
oskidunker said:I hope so. Where the hell does trump get that vote counting should stop?concordtom said:
OMG.
I just woke up and MI turned blue.
WI is blue on the map.
What does this all mean???
I'm literally starting to cry! Could it be???? Oh, God, please let this nightmare be over!
Bless you.sycasey said:dimitrig said:sycasey said:
Boom.
Remaining votes should be all mail-in and skew Dem. This is probably over.
If that is true then if Biden wins GA he will be POTUS no matter what else happens.
And I would expect the late counting in MI and PA to go much the same as WI. That's why I thought Biden was favored.
The confusing thing is that some states counted the mail stuff early, and posted it early, while other states didn't start counting all that until after the polls closed. I think that's what has happened, the latter, in Michigan and PA. That's why those states are tilting Blue as I understand it. Very weird.BearChemist said:I don't know man. With a tons of Dems chose absentee voting this year, the day-of-election ballots will screw heavily toward R. In FL and OH the absentee are counted ahead of Tuesday or on Tuesday morning, and the results are released as soon as the poll closed. This is why Biden had +12 in OH for a while, but as day-of-ballots are counted it switched back to R+8. These midwestern states just count the ballots in the opposed order, so it is to be expected that Trump would have a considerable lead on Tuesday night. Not sure what all the hand-wringings were about. With the amount of VBM in PA, the current R+11 gap will shrink over the next few days as mails arrive.concordtom said:
OMG.
I just woke up and MI turned blue.
WI is blue on the map.
What does this all mean???
I'm literally starting to cry! Could it be???? Oh, God, please let this nightmare be over!
concordtom said:The confusing thing is that some states counted the mail stuff early, and posted it early, while other states didn't start counting all that until after the polls closed. I think that's what has happened, the latter, in Michigan and PA. That's why those states are tilting Blue as I understand it. Very weird.BearChemist said:I don't know man. With a tons of Dems chose absentee voting this year, the day-of-election ballots will screw heavily toward R. In FL and OH the absentee are counted ahead of Tuesday or on Tuesday morning, and the results are released as soon as the poll closed. This is why Biden had +12 in OH for a while, but as day-of-ballots are counted it switched back to R+8. These midwestern states just count the ballots in the opposed order, so it is to be expected that Trump would have a considerable lead on Tuesday night. Not sure what all the hand-wringings were about. With the amount of VBM in PA, the current R+11 gap will shrink over the next few days as mails arrive.concordtom said:
OMG.
I just woke up and MI turned blue.
WI is blue on the map.
What does this all mean???
I'm literally starting to cry! Could it be???? Oh, God, please let this nightmare be over!
Someone said the nation needs to colonoscopy on how we conduct elections. It shouldn't be up to dirty tricks by state governors or legislatures: voter suppression tactics like moving or closing polling locations, clearing polling rolls, felons losing the right to vote - not to mention all this vote by mail, when do we count, etc. States rights, yes, but there needs to be some basic standards. A racist state should not get to Jim Crow a segment of it's population.
What are the Republicans going to do - take a snapshot of polls at midnight and submit that to the Supreme Court and say - "there. you must end it there."okaydo said:oskidunker said:I hope so. Where the hell does trump get that vote counting should stop?concordtom said:
OMG.
I just woke up and MI turned blue.
WI is blue on the map.
What does this all mean???
I'm literally starting to cry! Could it be???? Oh, God, please let this nightmare be over!
I think -- and correct me if I'm wrong -- Brett Kavanaugh wrote recently that votes shouldn't be counted after election day.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/27/us/kavanaugh-voting-rights.html
concordtom said:What are the Republicans going to do - take a snapshot of polls at midnight and submit that to the Supreme Court and say - "there. you must end it there."okaydo said:oskidunker said:I hope so. Where the hell does trump get that vote counting should stop?concordtom said:
OMG.
I just woke up and MI turned blue.
WI is blue on the map.
What does this all mean???
I'm literally starting to cry! Could it be???? Oh, God, please let this nightmare be over!
I think -- and correct me if I'm wrong -- Brett Kavanaugh wrote recently that votes shouldn't be counted after election day.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/27/us/kavanaugh-voting-rights.html
No way that works! Literally, the nation will EXPLODE if the votes show a Biden win, but the SC come back and say it should be a Trump win based on that logic. No way the SC would tap that scale.
okaydo said:
concordtom said:okaydo said:
From NBC website
First Read: Win or lose, Trump and his politics look like they're here to stay
WASHINGTON Whether or not President Trump ultimately wins or loses and the remaining vote appears to be strong for Joe Biden Trumpism looks like it's here to stay.
Democrats were hoping for a repudiation of Trump; that a GOP loss so big would force Republicans to the negotiating table, to try to compete for votes in urban/suburban America, and to dial down the scorched-earth politics over the last few years.
Instead, even if Trump doesn't win, he might have helped the GOP keep its Senate majority and pick up House seats when Republicans looked destined to lose them.
Bottom line: Even if he's voted out of office as we continue to count the votes in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin Trump and his brand of politics aren't leaving the political scene.
Urban versus rural. Those with college degrees versus those without. Women versus men.
And those divides will affect how this country tries to recover from a pandemic, an economic recession and social/racial tensions across the country.
"Surprise ballot dumps".okaydo said:concordtom said:What are the Republicans going to do - take a snapshot of polls at midnight and submit that to the Supreme Court and say - "there. you must end it there."okaydo said:oskidunker said:I hope so. Where the hell does trump get that vote counting should stop?concordtom said:
OMG.
I just woke up and MI turned blue.
WI is blue on the map.
What does this all mean???
I'm literally starting to cry! Could it be???? Oh, God, please let this nightmare be over!
I think -- and correct me if I'm wrong -- Brett Kavanaugh wrote recently that votes shouldn't be counted after election day.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/27/us/kavanaugh-voting-rights.html
No way that works! Literally, the nation will EXPLODE if the votes show a Biden win, but the SC come back and say it should be a Trump win based on that logic. No way the SC would tap that scale.
This is why the GOP doesn't want mail in votes counted early>