Final Election Prediction

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bearister
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In reply to B.A. Bearacus • 11:32a, 11/6/20
B.A. Bearacus said:


This is my olive branch to our tRumpist BI brothers currently languishing in the Penalty Box:

Too early? - facepalm


https://www.reddit.com/r/facepalm/comments/joocm1/too_early/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf





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B.A. Bearacus
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12:25p, 11/6/20

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Unit2Sucks
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In reply to Cal88 • 1:08p, 11/6/20
Cal88 said:
Trump is going to win, easily, holding on to his 2016 states, with another near sweep of the midwest. Trafalgar polling has him ahead in PA. Their methodology is more technically sound, and they have proven to be more accurate than the Nate Silver poll soup back in 2016 and the dynamics now are exactly the same.









Trafalgar has Biden ahead in NV by 2 pts. Intuitively, I have a hard time a state as devastated by the lockdown as NV can vote for Biden, but I have to go with their numbers, we'll see...

This is my prediction map, you can build yours and post it on this thread from https://www.270towin.com/



Final score: Trump 312 - 226 Biden.

Analysis:
-Slightly lower Black turnout than in 2016, with more Black men voting Trump
-Trump doing a bit better with Latinos, esp in FL
-Trump benefiting from the Antifa/BLM mayhem, esp in states like WI
-Large turnout from Trump base in rural areas, providing a decisive edge in PA, MI and other states
-Rep. Boomers switching from Trump to Biden due to covid fear
-Dem Boomers switching from Clinton to Trump due to BLM/Antifa chaos
-More new voters coming in mostly for Trump
-Relatively low turnout from the youth due to locked down campuses and city centers

The election is going to be settled by late Tuesday/early Wednesday, just like in 2016. There will be no major post-election drama like in 2000.
Any thoughts on where you went wrong?
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B.A. Bearacus
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1:19p, 11/6/20
Hail to all our comrades in Rhode Island who cheated on behalf of Lord Biden, but next time maybe not so obvious. 20%???

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dajo9
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1:19p, 11/6/20
Cal88 made a bad prediction but this is not like his knack for claiming facts that are just not accurate or are misleading. It's just a bad prediction. Not unlike how many of the early government Covid-19 predictions were off before better information was available. He did not believe in the blue wave. I did not believe in the red wave. It happens and the margins are so close, at least at the state level for electoral college purposes. Any of the states he called wrong could have gone either way - except for New Hampshire.

I do enjoy the thought of him having to fill up his friends and families liquor cabinets though. Maybe Putin has called him back to Moscow.
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bearister
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1:22p, 11/6/20
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BearChemist
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In reply to Unit2Sucks • 1:27p, 11/6/20
Unit2Sucks said:
Cal88 said:
Trump is going to win, easily, holding on to his 2016 states, with another near sweep of the midwest. Trafalgar polling has him ahead in PA. Their methodology is more technically sound, and they have proven to be more accurate than the Nate Silver poll soup back in 2016 and the dynamics now are exactly the same.









Trafalgar has Biden ahead in NV by 2 pts. Intuitively, I have a hard time a state as devastated by the lockdown as NV can vote for Biden, but I have to go with their numbers, we'll see...

This is my prediction map, you can build yours and post it on this thread from https://www.270towin.com/



Final score: Trump 312 - 226 Biden.

Analysis:
-Slightly lower Black turnout than in 2016, with more Black men voting Trump
-Trump doing a bit better with Latinos, esp in FL
-Trump benefiting from the Antifa/BLM mayhem, esp in states like WI
-Large turnout from Trump base in rural areas, providing a decisive edge in PA, MI and other states
-Rep. Boomers switching from Trump to Biden due to covid fear
-Dem Boomers switching from Clinton to Trump due to BLM/Antifa chaos
-More new voters coming in mostly for Trump
-Relatively low turnout from the youth due to locked down campuses and city centers

The election is going to be settled by late Tuesday/early Wednesday, just like in 2016. There will be no major post-election drama like in 2000.
Any thoughts on where you went wrong?
Actually Cal88 already edited his original 'analysis' in which he claims Trump will carry MN.
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GoOskie
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In reply to Cal88 • 1:34p, 11/6/20
Cal88 said:
I have several personal bets going with many friends and family tonight, my bar cabinet is getting replenished.
Looks like you're going to have to replenish it yourself. I hear cold duck and ripple are pretty cheap.
This just in: Republicans find another whistleblower who claims Hillary's emails were proven to be on Hunter's laptop while Obama spied on tRump as he sat (shat?) upon his golden toilet. Gym Jordan afraid whistle blower may be in danger of abduction by aliens in cahoots with Democrats.
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sycasey
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In reply to sycasey • 1:53p, 11/6/20
sycasey said:
BearForce2 said:
Sycasey, what's your current favorite polling sources telling you?
I think I've already described above: I think it will go about as FiveThirtyEight has it.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Biden wins by about 8 points nationally and gets the Hillary states, plus MI, WI, PA, AZ, then (less confidently) NC, FL, GA. In a really big wave he could get IA, OH, TX. He also wins Nebraska's 2nd district. That's about a baseline of 290 electoral votes for him, with an upper bound of 400+ if he beats his polls by several points.
So I'll revisit my own prediction here. Obviously the popular vote win will not be as big as I anticipated.

But I'd say this was a pretty good prediction about which states would flip. Of those I was most confident in, all seem to be going Biden: MI, WI, PA, AZ, and NE-2. Of the ones I was less confident about (NC, FL, GA), looks like he'll get one of three (though we really need to see more in NC). It wasn't a big wave, so none of the stretch goals came through. Not too bad.
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dajo9
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In reply to BearChemist • 1:58p, 11/6/20
BearChemist said:
Unit2Sucks said:
Cal88 said:
Trump is going to win, easily, holding on to his 2016 states, with another near sweep of the midwest. Trafalgar polling has him ahead in PA. Their methodology is more technically sound, and they have proven to be more accurate than the Nate Silver poll soup back in 2016 and the dynamics now are exactly the same.









Trafalgar has Biden ahead in NV by 2 pts. Intuitively, I have a hard time a state as devastated by the lockdown as NV can vote for Biden, but I have to go with their numbers, we'll see...

This is my prediction map, you can build yours and post it on this thread from https://www.270towin.com/



Final score: Trump 312 - 226 Biden.

Analysis:
-Slightly lower Black turnout than in 2016, with more Black men voting Trump
-Trump doing a bit better with Latinos, esp in FL
-Trump benefiting from the Antifa/BLM mayhem, esp in states like WI
-Large turnout from Trump base in rural areas, providing a decisive edge in PA, MI and other states
-Rep. Boomers switching from Trump to Biden due to covid fear
-Dem Boomers switching from Clinton to Trump due to BLM/Antifa chaos
-More new voters coming in mostly for Trump
-Relatively low turnout from the youth due to locked down campuses and city centers

The election is going to be settled by late Tuesday/early Wednesday, just like in 2016. There will be no major post-election drama like in 2000.
Any thoughts on where you went wrong?
Actually Cal88 already edited his original 'analysis' in which he claims Trump will carry MN.


Hahahaha. What a fraud. I take back what I said in my last post.
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B.A. Bearacus
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2:15p, 11/6/20



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B.A. Bearacus
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2:36p, 11/6/20
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In reply to B.A. Bearacus • 2:43p, 11/6/20
B.A. Bearacus said:
They have given up on him.
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okaydo
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3:09p, 11/6/20

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B.A. Bearacus
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In reply to okaydo • 3:13p, 11/6/20
Everything T touches dies.

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In reply to okaydo • 3:15p, 11/6/20
okaydo said:

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okaydo
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3:25p, 11/6/20
Biden is poised to have the 2nd-highest percentage of votes of the winner of the past 8 elections.



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Unit2Sucks
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In reply to okaydo • 3:25p, 11/6/20
okaydo said:



Raise you one.

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bearister
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In reply to okaydo • 3:26p, 11/6/20
okaydo said:



Here's a better idea, Hersh, why don't you shut the f@uck up.
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3:26p, 11/6/20

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3:28p, 11/6/20
I think Cal is more likely to go 6-0 this season than Trump conceding.




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B.A. Bearacus
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3:29p, 11/6/20
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sonofabear51
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3:31p, 11/6/20
Key word: HAD
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bearister
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In reply to okaydo • 3:36p, 11/6/20
okaydo said:



Why doesn't tRump dispatch this little sh@it stain that works for him down to the Navajo Nation to knock on a few doors to investigate voter fraud?

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B.A. Bearacus
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3:46p, 11/6/20
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B.A. Bearacus
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3:59p, 11/6/20
https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-says-he-will-keep-fighting-as-aides-doubt-path-forward-11604702837

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B.A. Bearacus
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4:16p, 11/6/20
Any Republicans donate to his defense fund yet?

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B.A. Bearacus
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4:18p, 11/6/20
Terrible.
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bearister
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4:28p, 11/6/20
" Half -- or more -- of any contribution will be used to retire debt from his re-election campaign."

tRump's election creditors have as much a chance of getting paid as any other tRump creditor has had over the last 45 years....or as a Newt Gingrich campaign creditor has had in years past.

Cheeto can't mount a legal challenge 'cause he out of loot and all lawyers are going to demand large retainers to work against.
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Unit2Sucks
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4:32p, 11/6/20
Dems just flipped another traditional republican house seat in Georgia. Now only down 4 from last election and that may change.

Dems flip GOP seat in Georgia in first big pickup


Quote:
Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux defeats Republican Rich McCormick


Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux flipped a red seat in a suburban Atlanta congressional race that was called Friday, marking the first big pickup for Democrats after a string of unexpected losses.

Bourdeaux, a college professor, beat Republican emergency room physician Rich McCormick in Georgia's 7th Congressional District. Bourdeaux had come close to winning the seat in 2018 against GOP Rep. Rob Woodall, R-Ga. But she secured her victory two years later after Woodall didn't seek re-election and McCormick, a first-time candidate and Marine Corps veteran, became the Republican nominee.

"Three years ago, I stepped up to take on a four-term incumbent," Bourdeaux tweeted. "They said this district could never be won by a Democrat, but we knew better. Together, we put this race on the map. Today, we finished the job."

It's the first time a Democrat has won the seat since Buddy Darden lost to Republican Bob Barr in the 1994 GOP takeover of the U.S. House, and reflects the rapidly diversifying population of the district.

The margin of Bourdeaux's victory was 51% to 49%.




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B.A. Bearacus
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4:36p, 11/6/20

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bearister
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In reply to B.A. Bearacus • 4:46p, 11/6/20
...and more than a few Russian oligarchs are beginning to ponder how they are going to be repaid millions in loans coming due from a guy no longer in a position to work off some of the debt with presidential favors or from the spoils of 4 more years of the looting of America.

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4:56p, 11/6/20

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In reply to B.A. Bearacus • 5:12p, 11/6/20
B.A. Bearacus said:



I dunno if I agree. Take the POTUS now and the Senate in two more. Makes it less suspicious that way. LOL!
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dajo9
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In reply to B.A. Bearacus • 5:43p, 11/6/20
B.A. Bearacus said:
Any Republicans donate to his defense fund yet?



It's the one part of Trump I like. Him just straight up robbing from his supporters.
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