oski003 said:
Do you even know what QT and bps are?
Or do you have to check first with our economic "expert" Movielover?
SAD.
JK
He's both happy and mad that the S&P and Nasdaq are at all-time highs. Strange fellow.
The Economy
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He's both happy and mad that the S&P and Nasdaq are at all-time highs. Strange fellow.
PAC-10-BEAR said:dajo9 said:
CPI inflation up 3.0% year over year. Last month was 2.9%.
And lower than expectations!
I bet you look great in a cheerleader's outfit.
I bet you could make Wilcox look like a Rose Bowl Champion.
PAC-10-BEAR said:
He's both happy and mad that the S&P and Nasdaq are at all-time highs. Strange fellow.
Yeah, I've had a really tough month in the market.
I was down today.
How are you doing buddy?
DiabloWags said:PAC-10-BEAR said:
He's both happy and mad that the S&P and Nasdaq are at all-time highs. Strange fellow.
Yeah, I've had a really tough month in the market.
I was down today.
How are you doing buddy?
Tough month? I'm assuming this was sarcasm
n/m
DiabloWags said:
I bet you look great in a cheerleader's outfit.
cyberbears.com is where you want to go. thank me later.
"Starting on day One, we will end inflation and make America affordable again, to bring down the prices of all goods."
- - - Donald Trump, August 2024
- - - Donald Trump, August 2024
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
Today Wharton Professor and economist Mohamed El-Erian appeared on Fox News to discuss President Trump's success with his global trade reset.
El-Erian asserts no one expected President Trump to be able to navigate a global trade and economic reset with such stunning success.
China is now theoretically positioned to feel pressure to align Beijing policy with the requests of President Trump.
"We thought there would be a massive retaliation against the US, there hasn't been" El-Erian noted. "We're collecting $300 Billion of tariff revenue" [$350 Billion annually] and "inflation has waned," he said. Few economists predicted this.
He sees optimism with:
- low inflation
- AI boom
- another rate cut this week
- trade realignment
[The link says $800 Billion in tariff revenue, I hear $300 Billion, and Google says $350 Billion per year.]
El-Erian asserts no one expected President Trump to be able to navigate a global trade and economic reset with such stunning success.
China is now theoretically positioned to feel pressure to align Beijing policy with the requests of President Trump.
"We thought there would be a massive retaliation against the US, there hasn't been" El-Erian noted. "We're collecting $300 Billion of tariff revenue" [$350 Billion annually] and "inflation has waned," he said. Few economists predicted this.
He sees optimism with:
- low inflation
- AI boom
- another rate cut this week
- trade realignment
[The link says $800 Billion in tariff revenue, I hear $300 Billion, and Google says $350 Billion per year.]
WOW — Economist/Wharton Professor says TARIFFS achieved something economists DIDN'T think possible!
— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) October 27, 2025
"We thought there would be a massive retaliation against the US, there hasn't been...we're collecting $800 Billion of tariff revenue...inflation waned."
INCREDIBLE, @POTUS !! 👏 pic.twitter.com/OaNtWqyTcf
Trump Effect.
CHINA: Trump holds an advantage over Xi because China’s economy is struggling depending heavily on US consumers. Domestic unrest and Trump’s trade deals across Asia add pressure on Beijing, giving him a stronger position in any negotiation. pic.twitter.com/ZNULZ6IhXw
— @amuse (@amuse) October 28, 2025
Scott Bessent is a legend.
PAC-10-BEAR said:
Scott Bessent is a legend.
You should "thank" George Soros.
Bessent learned from the best!
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
US consumer confidence fell in October for a third straight month on darkening views about the future, given the one-two punch of a slowing economy and weakening labor market. The Conference Board's gauge fell to its lowest point since April, data out Tuesday showed. A measure of expectations for the next six months fell in October to 71.5, the lowest level since June, while a metric of present conditions increased.
Confidence remains stuck below levels seen last year as Americans worry about their jobs and making enough money to get by. Job growth has significantly slowed and inflation has now risen to 3%. Meanwhile uncertainty is rampant due to President Donald Trump's trade war, his chaotic tariff threats and the fact most of them may turn out to be illegal.
Bloomberg
Confidence remains stuck below levels seen last year as Americans worry about their jobs and making enough money to get by. Job growth has significantly slowed and inflation has now risen to 3%. Meanwhile uncertainty is rampant due to President Donald Trump's trade war, his chaotic tariff threats and the fact most of them may turn out to be illegal.
Bloomberg
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
Interesting things are brewing in the world of liquidity. Private lenders seem to be pulling back and the government is soaking up liquidity with big Treasury auctions which is causing a liquidity shortage as evidenced by the spike in rates in the Fed repo markets. The liquidity shortage is why the Fed is ending QT, which pulls liquidity out of the market.
Yesterday Powell lowered their rate by .25% as expected but did not commit to a December cut and other rates on the yield curve went up, signaling a disconnect between what the Fed is doing and what the market wants. With a liquidity shortage, rates would trend up as money becomes scarce and valuable. Probably only a matter of time before "not QE" begins again. "Not QE" is when the Fed expands their balance sheet (buying securities and pumping liquidity into the economy) but says it isn't QE, like they did in 2019.
All of this keeps happening to Trump's economy so it must be Biden's fault.
Yesterday Powell lowered their rate by .25% as expected but did not commit to a December cut and other rates on the yield curve went up, signaling a disconnect between what the Fed is doing and what the market wants. With a liquidity shortage, rates would trend up as money becomes scarce and valuable. Probably only a matter of time before "not QE" begins again. "Not QE" is when the Fed expands their balance sheet (buying securities and pumping liquidity into the economy) but says it isn't QE, like they did in 2019.
All of this keeps happening to Trump's economy so it must be Biden's fault.
Either Chipotle has collapsed as a brand or young Americans are out of money.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 30, 2025
Or, both.
What is happening here? pic.twitter.com/1gIAEzmrf1
Higher costs and slower consumer spending, especially from the younger crowd.
Canary in a coal mine?
Canary in a coal mine?
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
I thought Pres Trump pivoting to a one year deal with China was brilliant: redefine the chalk lines to
more like a burrito, with students, in a coal mine. Recent grads may be looking at more Blondies and ramen in the near term. The "haves" are still opting for Chez Panise, slumming at the CP Cafe or Corso.DiabloWags said:
Higher costs and slower consumer spending, especially from the younger crowd.
Canary in a coal mine?
NYT:
The top 10 percent of U.S. households now account for nearly half of all spending, Moody's Analytics recently estimated, the highest share since the late 1980s. Consumer sentiment has climbed among high earners but steadily fallen for other groups.
Priest of the Patty Hearst Shrine
cal83dls79 said:DiabloWags said:
Higher costs and slower consumer spending, especially from the younger crowd.
Canary in a coal mine?
more like a burrito, with students, in a coal mine. Recent grads may be looking at more Blondies and ramen in the near term. The "haves" are still opting for Chez Panise, slumming at the CP Cafe or Corso.
NYT:
The top 10 percent of U.S. households now account for nearly half of all spending, Moody's Analytics recently estimated, the highest share since the late 1980s. Consumer sentiment has climbed among high earners but steadily fallen for other groups.
People earning under $100k voted for Trump and are receiving the economy they voted for. People with higher incomes voted for Harris and are suffering through the economy they (we) did not vote for, which is designed towards making them (us) more wealthy. Can confirm the economy is having the desired effect. My finances have never looked better. My stock market investments are up and my blue state real estate investments are up. It's comforting to know the Fed stands ready to flood the capital markets with liquidity should my stock market investments falter.
I want to thank the lower income people of America for voting to raise their taxes and lower my taxes. Their sacrifices are going to help me retire early.
Ubiquitous taco trucks have to be a factor. About the past year I've seen new night time TT in Castro Valley, Pleasant Hill, and elsewhere, often two within a few blocks, with larger tents and night lights. The solo trucks make sense. These new setups don't typically have large crowds, and don't seem to make business sense.
Yup.
QT ends Dec. 1st, although not for mortgages.
And after the RATE CUT the yield on the 2-year climbed by 0.092 to 3.585
Despite 50 basis points of rate cuts since September, long rates have barely moved, and they rose Wednesday.
Maybe the Trump fanboys here can tell us why?
QT ends Dec. 1st, although not for mortgages.
And after the RATE CUT the yield on the 2-year climbed by 0.092 to 3.585
Despite 50 basis points of rate cuts since September, long rates have barely moved, and they rose Wednesday.
Maybe the Trump fanboys here can tell us why?
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
76BearsFly said:
I thought Pres Trump pivoting to a one year deal with China was brilliant: redefine the chalk lines to
I thought it was brilliant that Trump shut down the government so that the Fed hasnt had any data since September and is "driving in a fog"
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
their sacrifice has helped me in early retirement as well! It's true that I too would not sleep as well …given the current buoyancy of the market… without that future and assured liquidity. Hopefully some other goodies coming my way! Happy Halloween!dajo9 said:cal83dls79 said:DiabloWags said:
Higher costs and slower consumer spending, especially from the younger crowd.
Canary in a coal mine?
more like a burrito, with students, in a coal mine. Recent grads may be looking at more Blondies and ramen in the near term. The "haves" are still opting for Chez Panise, slumming at the CP Cafe or Corso.
NYT:
The top 10 percent of U.S. households now account for nearly half of all spending, Moody's Analytics recently estimated, the highest share since the late 1980s. Consumer sentiment has climbed among high earners but steadily fallen for other groups.
People earning under $100k voted for Trump and are receiving the economy they voted for. People with higher incomes voted for Harris and are suffering through the economy they (we) did not vote for, which is designed towards making them (us) more wealthy. Can confirm the economy is having the desired effect. My finances have never looked better. My stock market investments are up and my blue state real estate investments are up. It's comforting to know the Fed stands ready to flood the capital markets with liquidity should my stock market investments falter.
I want to thank the lower income people of America for voting to raise their taxes and lower my taxes. Their sacrifices are going to help me retire early.
Priest of the Patty Hearst Shrine
cal83dls79 said:dajo9 said:cal83dls79 said:DiabloWags said:
Higher costs and slower consumer spending, especially from the younger crowd.
Canary in a coal mine?
more like a burrito, with students, in a coal mine. Recent grads may be looking at more Blondies and ramen in the near term. The "haves" are still opting for Chez Panise, slumming at the CP Cafe or Corso.
NYT:
The top 10 percent of U.S. households now account for nearly half of all spending, Moody's Analytics recently estimated, the highest share since the late 1980s. Consumer sentiment has climbed among high earners but steadily fallen for other groups.
People earning under $100k voted for Trump and are receiving the economy they voted for. People with higher incomes voted for Harris and are suffering through the economy they (we) did not vote for, which is designed towards making them (us) more wealthy. Can confirm the economy is having the desired effect. My finances have never looked better. My stock market investments are up and my blue state real estate investments are up. It's comforting to know the Fed stands ready to flood the capital markets with liquidity should my stock market investments falter.
I want to thank the lower income people of America for voting to raise their taxes and lower my taxes. Their sacrifices are going to help me retire early.
their sacrifice has helped me in early retirement as well! It's true that I too would not sleep as well …given the current buoyancy of the market… without that future and assured liquidity. Hopefully some other goodies coming my way! Happy Halloween!
I'll have a champagne toast to that!
cal83dls79 said:dajo9 said:
I want to thank the lower income people of America for voting to raise their taxes and lower my taxes. Their sacrifices are going to help me retire early.
their sacrifice has helped me in early retirement as well! It's true that I too would not sleep as well …given the current buoyancy of the market… without that future and assured liquidity. Hopefully some other goodies coming my way! Happy Halloween!
DUMBERICA HAS NEVER MADE MY POCKET BOOK FEEL BETTER OR OUR FAMILY TRUST
THANK YOU MAGA FOR MORONS!
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
Hmmm... Chipotle just opened a new location in my town within the last week. Coincidence? I think not.Cal88 said:Either Chipotle has collapsed as a brand or young Americans are out of money.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 30, 2025
Or, both.
What is happening here? pic.twitter.com/1gIAEzmrf1
I'm planning to check it out later this afternoon. I've never been to a Chipotle before.
Eastern Oregon Bear said:Hmmm... Chipotle just opened a new location in my town within the last week. Coincidence? I think not.Cal88 said:Either Chipotle has collapsed as a brand or young Americans are out of money.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 30, 2025
Or, both.
What is happening here? pic.twitter.com/1gIAEzmrf1
I'm planning to check it out later this afternoon. I've never been to a Chipotle before.
If you are familiar with CA Mexican food you won't be thrilled but for most of the country it is fine
Four years of Biden, no job growth, two million Fake jobs. It takes time.
BREAKING: Trump secures agreement from China to buy 25M tons of US soybeans annually, 12M tons immediately, Bessent says
Read more about the Trump-Xi meeting: https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/trump-secures-china-agreement-buy-millions-tons-us-soybeans-bessent-says-after-xi-meeting
Read more about the Trump-Xi meeting: https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/trump-secures-china-agreement-buy-millions-tons-us-soybeans-bessent-says-after-xi-meeting
DiabloWags said:
DUMBERICA HAS NEVER MADE MY POCKET BOOK FEEL BETTER OR OUR FAMILY TRUST
BUT THE SOYBEANS!
PAC-10-BEAR said:DiabloWags said:
DUMBERICA HAS NEVER MADE MY POCKET BOOK FEEL BETTER OR OUR FAMILY TRUST
BUT THE SOYBEANS!
Only 18.2 million metric tons for 2025.
Yawn.
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
movielover said:
BREAKING: Trump secures agreement from China to buy 25M tons of US soybeans annually, 12M tons immediately, Bessent says
That would mean a 32% decline since 2024 when annual exports to China reached 26.8 million metric tons.
This means that 2025 will be the WORST YEAR for U.S. soybean sales to China since 2018.
Only 18.2 million.
You can put your Pom Poms down now.
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
For the kids sitting waaaaay in the back...
This means that 2025 will be the WORST YEAR for U.S. soybean sales to China since 2018.
Only 18.2 million.
This means that 2025 will be the WORST YEAR for U.S. soybean sales to China since 2018.
Only 18.2 million.
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
movielover said:
Aren't they a little old for you?
Do the actual kids in the wwwwwwwaaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyy back and the demented Benjamin Buttons realize that there was a trade war for much of this year and a resolution isn't expected to result in 2025 trade levels or higher, given that we are past September and now October?
oski003 said:movielover said:
Aren't they a little old for you?
Do the actual kids in the wwwwwwwaaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyy back and the demented Benjamin Buttons realize that there was a trade war for much of this year and a resolution isn't expected to result in 2025 trade levels or higher, given that we are past September and now October?
Do they realize we're smashing previous tariff numbers?
super excited. looking forward to the freedom checks promised here! Will help pay for my Egypt trip coming up. Maybe a few more camel rides, no balloon rides thank you. Retirement is great! Thanks trumpsters in advance for your sacrifices once again! Happy Halloween!movielover said:oski003 said:movielover said:
Aren't they a little old for you?
Do the actual kids in the wwwwwwwaaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyy back and the demented Benjamin Buttons realize that there was a trade war for much of this year and a resolution isn't expected to result in 2025 trade levels or higher, given that we are past September and now October?
Do they realize we're smashing previous tariff numbers?
P.S. if some of the tariff money (or any tax money for that matter) can be directed to me (directly or indirectly)that would be super. An opportunity still on the table is some checks for the lobstermen hit by the tariffs.
That would provide only trickle down benefit to me but is low hanging fruit. Who doesn't support our lobstermen? Reminder: Christmas and my birthday are around the corner
Priest of the Patty Hearst Shrine
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