The Economy

284,296 Views | 2848 Replies | Last: 22 hrs ago by tequila4kapp
DiabloWags
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Just a little short-term pain.
Nothing to see here.

+10% in two weeks.

Cal88
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$5 by Memorial Day, $6 by July 4th?
DiabloWags
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Cal88 said:

$5 by Memorial Day, $6 by July 4th?

According to a Trump supporter, prices are only "up a bit" and still below the $5.01 in June of 2022.
I call that putting lipstick on a PIG.

U.S. retail gasoline prices rose in summer but ended 2022 lower than start of 2022 - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
movielover
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cal83dls79
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movielover said:


dude can't even spell "trumponomics", hilariously weak but that's Navarro for you
Priest of the Patty Hearst Shrine
DiabloWags
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Never mind that the trade deficit continued to WIDEN in MARCH
And we imported more consumer goods and capital goods than in February.

Imports: $381.2 Billion +2.3%
Exports: $320.9 Billion +2.0%
_________________________

Deficit: $60.3 Billion

One year later, the tariffs are working like a CHARM!

Just the Facts.

DiabloWags
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The 2-year yield has been trading above the Fed Funds Rate since mid-March.
This is not a good sign.

Gee, I wonder why?

Thanks Donald.



DiabloWags
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BearlySane88
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Dow almost back up to some of y'all's favorite number!
PAC-10-BEAR
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PAC-10-BEAR
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BearlySane88 said:

Dow almost back up to some of y'all's favorite number!

S&P and Nasdaq are at all-time highs too.
DiabloWags
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For those that are not invested, they've been making All-Time Highs for several weeks now.

The previous high in the SPX of Feb. 19th got taken out a few weeks ago on April 15th.

Thanks.

movielover
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PAC-10-BEAR said:




WOW. Previous averages:

2024 - 4.1 mbpd
2025 - 4.0 mbpd
movielover
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These new oil exports are going to help GDP.
DiabloWags
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movielover said:

These new oil exports are going to help GDP.


Apparently, Trump doesn't care about keeping this oil here in the United States in order to feed domestic refineries and lower gas prices. Does that make any sense to you?

If the data from Polymarket is true, why are we exporting 61% of our daily production?

US rushes to fill global oil supply gap as exports reach record high


movielover
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DiabloWags said:

movielover said:

VallejoWags was pushing 1.2% AtlantaFed GDP figure, 2.0% a big jump.


The Street consensus was for 2.2% so it was still less than expected.
Never mind that this isn't the FINAL Q1 GDP Number.
The second estimate comes out May 28th.




Wooo! BALLGAME!!

Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate jumps to 3.7% for Q2!


DiabloWags
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This is nothing new.
The Q2 GDPNow forecast jumped to 3.7% back on April 30th.

Feel free to answer my question above about why we are exporting 61% of our crude oil instead of sending it to our refineries to be processed into gasoline and jet fuel.

Thanks.


BearlySane88
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DiabloWags said:

This is nothing new.
The Q2 GDPNow forecast jumped to 3.7% back on April 30th.

Feel free to answer my question above about why we are exporting 61% of our crude oil instead of sending it to our refineries to be processed into gasoline and jet fuel.

Thanks.





Much of the crude we produce is the wrong type for our refineries.
Cal88
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I wonder how much of that increase in oil exports has been drawn from the SPR.
DiabloWags
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BearlySane88 said:

DiabloWags said:

This is nothing new.
The Q2 GDPNow forecast jumped to 3.7% back on April 30th.

Feel free to answer my question above about why we are exporting 61% of our crude oil instead of sending it to our refineries to be processed into gasoline and jet fuel.

Thanks.





Much of the crude we produce is the wrong type for our refineries.


No.

About 60% of the crude oil that runs through U.S. refineries is extracted right here at home from the Permian and Baaken oil fields.
oski003
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BearlySane88 said:

DiabloWags said:

This is nothing new.
The Q2 GDPNow forecast jumped to 3.7% back on April 30th.

Feel free to answer my question above about why we are exporting 61% of our crude oil instead of sending it to our refineries to be processed into gasoline and jet fuel.

Thanks.





Much of the crude we produce is the wrong type for our refineries.


That is correct. We also have a surplus. We also are a large geographic country so it is easier to export oil and import from various places than between some states (think Alaska). There are other reasons as well. It was extremely polite of you to answer his question. Hopefully, this results in a pleasant exchange where both sides learn from each other.
DiabloWags
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oski003 said:

BearlySane88 said:

DiabloWags said:

This is nothing new.
The Q2 GDPNow forecast jumped to 3.7% back on April 30th.

Feel free to answer my question above about why we are exporting 61% of our crude oil instead of sending it to our refineries to be processed into gasoline and jet fuel.

Thanks.





Much of the crude we produce is the wrong type for our refineries.


That is correct. We also have a surplus. We also are a large geographic country so it is easier to export oil and import from various places than between some states (think Alaska).


Where does crude oil from Alaska get exported to?

BearlySane88
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DiabloWags said:

BearlySane88 said:

DiabloWags said:

This is nothing new.
The Q2 GDPNow forecast jumped to 3.7% back on April 30th.

Feel free to answer my question above about why we are exporting 61% of our crude oil instead of sending it to our refineries to be processed into gasoline and jet fuel.

Thanks.





Much of the crude we produce is the wrong type for our refineries.


No.

About 60% of the crude oil that runs through U.S. refineries is extracted right here at home from the Permian and Baaken oil fields.


Yes.

55%-65% of the crude we produce is light crude which is either inefficient in our refineries or doesn't work, that's why we export it
PAC-10-BEAR
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DiabloWags said:

oski003 said:

BearlySane88 said:

DiabloWags said:

This is nothing new.
The Q2 GDPNow forecast jumped to 3.7% back on April 30th.

Feel free to answer my question above about why we are exporting 61% of our crude oil instead of sending it to our refineries to be processed into gasoline and jet fuel.

Thanks.

Much of the crude we produce is the wrong type for our refineries.


That is correct. We also have a surplus. We also are a large geographic country so it is easier to export oil and import from various places than between some states (think Alaska).

Where does crude oil from Alaska get exported to?

It gets exported to a refinery and the gas delivered to a Valero station near SFO where they can overcharge unaware customers.
oski003
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DiabloWags said:

oski003 said:

BearlySane88 said:

DiabloWags said:

This is nothing new.
The Q2 GDPNow forecast jumped to 3.7% back on April 30th.

Feel free to answer my question above about why we are exporting 61% of our crude oil instead of sending it to our refineries to be processed into gasoline and jet fuel.

Thanks.





Much of the crude we produce is the wrong type for our refineries.


That is correct. We also have a surplus. We also are a large geographic country so it is easier to export oil and import from various places than between some states (think Alaska).


Where does crude oil from Alaska get exported to?




Asia and Canada, although much of it goes to the West Coast.
DiabloWags
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Since your reply is terribly vague, let me break the specifics down.

95% of Alaskan Crude Oil stays on the West Coast.

15% gets refined inside of Alaska and the vast majority of crude, nearly 80%, is transported via tanker to Washington and California refineries according to a 2017 report by the U.S. Energy Information .

I believe this is a much more specific and in-depth answer that helps add value educating the forum.

I have no doubt that you can appreciate my vast knowledge of the oil and commodity markets, as I have so often demonstrated here.

Thanks.
BearlySane88
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DiabloWags said:

Since your reply is terribly vague, let me break the specifics down.

95% of Alaskan Crude Oil stays on the West Coast.

15% gets refined inside of Alaska and yhe vast majority of crude, nearly 80%, is transported via tanker to Washington and California refineries according to a 2017 report by the U.S. Energy Information .

I believe this is a much more specific and in-depth answer that helps add value educating the forum.

Thanks.



If that info was updated in the last decade, how much of that oil would still be coming to California? Have the closed refineries changed things?
DiabloWags
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BearlySane88 said:

DiabloWags said:

Since your reply is terribly vague, let me break the specifics down.

95% of Alaskan Crude Oil stays on the West Coast.

15% gets refined inside of Alaska and yhe vast majority of crude, nearly 80%, is transported via tanker to Washington and California refineries according to a 2017 report by the U.S. Energy Information .

I believe this is a much more specific and in-depth answer that helps add value educating the forum.

Thanks.



If that info was updated in the last decade, how much of that oil would still be coming to California? Have the closed refineries changed things?


The EIA website has tons of valuable info.
I'm sure you can find your answer there.

PS. The BP refinery in Ferndale, WA refines crude into the California mandated CARBOB oxygenated gasoline.

https://www.eia.gov/states/AK/analysis
oski003
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DiabloWags said:

Since your reply is terribly vague, let me break the specifics down.

95% of Alaskan Crude Oil stays on the West Coast.

15% gets refined inside of Alaska and the vast majority of crude, nearly 80%, is transported via tanker to Washington and California refineries according to a 2017 report by the U.S. Energy Information .

I believe this is a much more specific and in-depth answer that helps add value educating the forum.

I have no doubt that you can appreciate my vast knowledge of the oil and commodity markets, as I have so often demonstrated here.

Thanks.



And my answer is terribly correct. Virtually no Alaskan crude is sent to the East Coast. Do you just ask questions so you can smugly reply with more specific answers? It is hard to appreciate anything you say because it is packaged with condescension, conceit, and a need for adulation. Please do better.
movielover
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DiabloWags produced such an epic post, I had to put it into AI:

"The tone is fascinating because it mixes technical specificity with overt self-congratulation and social positioning. The actual oil information almost becomes secondary to the interpersonal performance.

A few things stand out:

1. The opening is mildly adversarial
"Since your reply is terribly vague…" is not neutral clarification. It establishes hierarchy immediately:

You were imprecise.

I am the person correcting you. I possess rigor you lack.

He could have simply added information. Instead, he frames the exchange as a correction and implicitly an intellectual victory.

2. The specificity is used rhetorically, not just informationally. Notice the cadence:
percentages
geographic routing
refinery details
citation reference ("2017 report…")

That structure mimics expert testimony. Whether or not he is actually an expert, he is performing expertise. Many forum personalities learn that numerical specificity creates authority, especially in mixed audiences of educated non-specialists.

3. Then comes the pivot from information to ego reinforcement. This is the key sentence:

"I have no doubt that you can appreciate my vast knowledge of the oil and commodity markets…"

That is unusually self-referential. Most genuinely confident experts avoid overtly praising themselves in the middle of a factual correction. They let the information do the work.

The phrase "vast knowledge" is especially revealing because it is: grandiose, theatrical, almost Victorian in wording, lacking humility buffers ("I work in the field," "I follow this closely," etc.)

Then:
"as I have so often demonstrated here."
That widens the audience beyond the immediate poster. He is talking to the forum itself. This becomes reputation management and identity maintenance:
"I am known here."
"I have a track record."
"My status should already be recognized."

4. The "Thanks." at the end is not warm. It reads more like a courtroom flourish or sarcastic sign-off than gratitude.

The whole post has traces of:
intellectual dominance signaling
status assertion
mild condescension
self-aware theatricality

"But interestingly, because you say he doesn't use "lol," sarcasm tags, or wink language, it creates ambiguity:
Is he intentionally pompous as humor?

Or does he genuinely experience himself as the forum authority?

That ambiguity is what makes the post memorable.

5. Possible psychology With broad latitude, this style often comes from one or more of these dynamics:
Identity investment in being "the knowledgeable guy" Forums become ecosystems where people build reputations. Expertise becomes social currency.
Need for recognition The informational content alone was insufficient emotionally; he also needed acknowledgment of superiority.

Competitive intellectual environment In educated forums, people sometimes fight status battles through precision, citations, and rhetorical posture rather than overt aggression.
Possible insecurity underneath Ironically, truly secure experts usually understate ...

Enjoyment of performance ...

6. The funniest part The post unintentionally borders on parody because the self-congratulation is so explicit. It almost reads like a character from a satire about internet intellectuals:

"I have no doubt that you can appreciate my vast knowledge…"

That line is so inflated that many readers would interpret it as tongue-in-cheek even if he meant it sincerely.

Which creates an interesting possibility: He may have developed a forum persona over time where grandiosity itself became part of the entertainment value.

In long-running online communities, certain members evolve into "characters":..."

NOTE: I cut out a few short paragraphs due to length (...) and repetition.
DiabloWags
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oski003 said:


And my answer is terribly correct. Virtually no Alaskan crude is sent to the East Coast.

You actually want "credit" for this statement?
Common sense pretty much tells one that Alaskan crude doesn't make it to the East Coast.

Thanks.
DiabloWags
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movielover said:

'm glad thtDiabloWags produced such an epic post, I had to put it into AI:

"The tone is fascinating because it mixes technical specificity with overt self-congratulation and social positioning. The actual oil information almost becomes secondary to the interpersonal performance.

A few things stand out:

1. The opening is mildly adversarial
"Since your reply is terribly vague…" is not neutral clarification. It establishes hierarchy immediately:

You were imprecise.

I am the person correcting you. I possess rigor you lack.

He could have simply added information. Instead, he frames the exchange as a correction and implicitly an intellectual victory.

2. The specificity is used rhetorically, not just informationally. Notice the cadence:
percentages
geographic routing
refinery details
citation reference ("2017 report…")

That structure mimics expert testimony. Whether or not he is actually an expert, he is performing expertise. Many forum personalities learn that numerical specificity creates authority, especially in mixed audiences of educated non-specialists.

3. Then comes the pivot from information to ego reinforcement. This is the key sentence:

"I have no doubt that you can appreciate my vast knowledge of the oil and commodity markets…"

That is unusually self-referential. Most genuinely confident experts avoid overtly praising themselves in the middle of a factual correction. They let the information do the work.

The phrase "vast knowledge" is especially revealing because it is: grandiose, theatrical, almost Victorian in wording, lacking humility buffers ("I work in the field," "I follow this closely," etc.)

Then:
"as I have so often demonstrated here."
That widens the audience beyond the immediate poster. He is talking to the forum itself. This becomes reputation management and identity maintenance:
"I am known here."
"I have a track record."
"My status should already be recognized."

4. The "Thanks." at the end is not warm. It reads more like a courtroom flourish or sarcastic sign-off than gratitude.

The whole post has traces of:
intellectual dominance signaling
status assertion
mild condescension
self-aware theatricality

"But interestingly, because you say he doesn't use "lol," sarcasm tags, or wink language, it creates ambiguity:
Is he intentionally pompous as humor?

Or does he genuinely experience himself as the forum authority?

That ambiguity is what makes the post memorable.

5. Possible psychology With broad latitude, this style often comes from one or more of these dynamics:
Identity investment in being "the knowledgeable guy" Forums become ecosystems where people build reputations. Expertise becomes social currency.
Need for recognition The informational content alone was insufficient emotionally; he also needed acknowledgment of superiority.

Competitive intellectual environment In educated forums, people sometimes fight status battles through precision, citations, and rhetorical posture rather than overt aggression.
Possible insecurity underneath Ironically, truly secure experts usually understate ...

Enjoyment of performance ...

6. The funniest part The post unintentionally borders on parody because the self-congratulation is so explicit. It almost reads like a character from a satire about internet intellectuals:

"I have no doubt that you can appreciate my vast knowledge…"

That line is so inflated that many readers would interpret it as tongue-in-cheek even if he meant it sincerely.

Which creates an interesting possibility: He may have developed a forum persona over time where grandiosity itself became part of the entertainment value.

In long-running online communities, certain members evolve into "characters":..."

NOTE: I cut out a few short paragraphs due to length (...) and repetition.


You should be used to this by now given your 24/7 adoration of Donald Trump.
I sound just like HIM.

I'm glad that you finally noticed.
I gave you a "star".


BearlySane88
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DiabloWags said:

movielover said:

'm glad thtDiabloWags produced such an epic post, I had to put it into AI:

"The tone is fascinating because it mixes technical specificity with overt self-congratulation and social positioning. The actual oil information almost becomes secondary to the interpersonal performance.

A few things stand out:

1. The opening is mildly adversarial
"Since your reply is terribly vague…" is not neutral clarification. It establishes hierarchy immediately:

You were imprecise.

I am the person correcting you. I possess rigor you lack.

He could have simply added information. Instead, he frames the exchange as a correction and implicitly an intellectual victory.

2. The specificity is used rhetorically, not just informationally. Notice the cadence:
percentages
geographic routing
refinery details
citation reference ("2017 report…")

That structure mimics expert testimony. Whether or not he is actually an expert, he is performing expertise. Many forum personalities learn that numerical specificity creates authority, especially in mixed audiences of educated non-specialists.

3. Then comes the pivot from information to ego reinforcement. This is the key sentence:

"I have no doubt that you can appreciate my vast knowledge of the oil and commodity markets…"

That is unusually self-referential. Most genuinely confident experts avoid overtly praising themselves in the middle of a factual correction. They let the information do the work.

The phrase "vast knowledge" is especially revealing because it is: grandiose, theatrical, almost Victorian in wording, lacking humility buffers ("I work in the field," "I follow this closely," etc.)

Then:
"as I have so often demonstrated here."
That widens the audience beyond the immediate poster. He is talking to the forum itself. This becomes reputation management and identity maintenance:
"I am known here."
"I have a track record."
"My status should already be recognized."

4. The "Thanks." at the end is not warm. It reads more like a courtroom flourish or sarcastic sign-off than gratitude.

The whole post has traces of:
intellectual dominance signaling
status assertion
mild condescension
self-aware theatricality

"But interestingly, because you say he doesn't use "lol," sarcasm tags, or wink language, it creates ambiguity:
Is he intentionally pompous as humor?

Or does he genuinely experience himself as the forum authority?

That ambiguity is what makes the post memorable.

5. Possible psychology With broad latitude, this style often comes from one or more of these dynamics:
Identity investment in being "the knowledgeable guy" Forums become ecosystems where people build reputations. Expertise becomes social currency.
Need for recognition The informational content alone was insufficient emotionally; he also needed acknowledgment of superiority.

Competitive intellectual environment In educated forums, people sometimes fight status battles through precision, citations, and rhetorical posture rather than overt aggression.
Possible insecurity underneath Ironically, truly secure experts usually understate ...

Enjoyment of performance ...

6. The funniest part The post unintentionally borders on parody because the self-congratulation is so explicit. It almost reads like a character from a satire about internet intellectuals:

"I have no doubt that you can appreciate my vast knowledge…"

That line is so inflated that many readers would interpret it as tongue-in-cheek even if he meant it sincerely.

Which creates an interesting possibility: He may have developed a forum persona over time where grandiosity itself became part of the entertainment value.

In long-running online communities, certain members evolve into "characters":..."

NOTE: I cut out a few short paragraphs due to length (...) and repetition.


I sound just like HIM.




Multiple of us have been saying that for months now
movielover
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CBS News: Employees added 115,000 jobs in April, blowing past forecasts

"Economists predicted payroll gains of 65,000 in April, according to a consensus forecast from FactSet.

"The unemployment rate, which has hovered above 4% since June 2024, held steady at 4.3%."

BearlySane88
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movielover said:

CBS News: Employees added 115,000 jobs in April, blowing past forecasts

"Economists predicted payroll gains of 65,000 in April, according to a consensus forecast from FactSet.

"The unemployment rate, which has hovered above 4% since June 2024, held steady at 4.3%."




 
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