Not taking it "seriously" enough is what helped get us to this point in the first place.

the scale is logarithmic.

Japan and Korea have done a good job in withstanding the first blow and extending the peak. Korea implemented early on an aggressive testing and tracking program and the population abided the prescription of strict social isolation and self quarantine measures.

Professor David Romer said:

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I find it deeply amusing that a global warming "non-alarmist" takes so much joy in being a pandemic alarmist.

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First, what kind of sick ******* would "take joy" with a pandemic that is wreaking havoc with the world, and might actually kill his friends and relatives? Please check your vocabulary and don't project your sociopathy here, Yogi.

What is ridiculous here is people freaking out about a late February warm day in California while thinking that the current epidemic is "just a flu".

Almost every alarmist "world about to collapse" global warming projection in the last half century has failed to materialize, whereas the pandemic is certain to hit America, in fact it is already here, and growing exponentially. In any case on the timetable of Greta and AOC, we have another 11 years before the world collapses from global warming, so maybe we can address that looming disaster a while later.

Professor David Romer said:

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I find it deeply amusing that a global warming "non-alarmist" takes so much joy in being a pandemic alarmist.

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snort! <-- word made famous on earliest growls bbs, by the one the only Blueblood #respect

good rundown today focusing on the situation in Italy, which according to the logarithmic chart posted above is about 2 weeks ahead on the epidemic timeline.

B.A. Bearacus said:

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Joe Lacob: "FTS!"

NHS = the British National Health Service

Definitely run by experts and scientists who know what they are doing. Flights from Italy to London and the US are still running today.

The death rate will be in that 1% range provided that the healthcare system has enough capacity to treat all those who develop serious respiratory issues.

Italy is only about 12 days ahead of the US on the epidemic timeline, yet they've already reached a point where doctors are having to decide which advanced pneumonia patient gets access to a ventilator ahead of the rest.

For the next month at the very least, it is crucial to minimize your potential exposure by avoiding all public events, public transit, flights etc and keeping your kids out of school, which are going to close down later this month anyway.

How long before there is a flood of countries who stop all international flights to and from the US? Given that the WHO has noted our inaction and it appears we are resisting any efforts to spread CV, I can't imagine other countries will want to risk their public health on baseless claims by Trump that there is nothing to worry about.

Quote:

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keeping your kids out of school, which are going to close down later this month anyway.

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Cal88 - I'm not convinced that keeping kids out of school will help things (particularly elementary school age kids). They don't seem to be getting sick or at a high risk of transmission but having them at home is super disruptive and will cause more widespread economic distress. These efforts all will have regressive impacts on our country and will spike unemployment/economic distress.

Research finds huge impact of interventions on spread of Covid-19


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/11/research-finds-huge-impact-of-interventions-on-spread-of-covid-19?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Grand Princess cruise couple sues over 'lackadaisical' coronavirus response


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/11/grand-princess-cruise-coronavirus-lawsuit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Unit2Sucks said:

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How long before there is a flood of countries who stop all international flights to and from the US? Given that the WHO has noted our inaction and it appears we are resisting any efforts to spread CV, I can't imagine other countries will want to risk their public health on baseless claims by Trump that there is nothing to worry about.

Quote:

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keeping your kids out of school, which are going to close down later this month anyway.

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Cal88 - I'm not convinced that keeping kids out of school will help things (particularly elementary school age kids). They don't seem to be getting sick or at a high risk of transmission but having them at home is super disruptive and will cause more widespread economic distress. These efforts all will have regressive impacts on our country and will spike unemployment/economic distress.

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According to Dr. Campbell and others, there is has been a fair amount of spreading at the family level. The risk is not so much to the kids as to their parents, and especially, their grandparents.

Unit2Sucks said:

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How long before there is a flood of countries who stop all international flights to and from the US? Given that the WHO has noted our inaction and it appears we are resisting any efforts to spread CV, I can't imagine other countries will want to risk their public health on baseless claims by Trump that there is nothing to worry about.

Quote:

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keeping your kids out of school, which are going to close down later this month anyway.

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Cal88 - I'm not convinced that keeping kids out of school will help things (particularly elementary school age kids). They don't seem to be getting sick or at a high risk of transmission but having them at home is super disruptive and will cause more widespread economic distress. These efforts all will have regressive impacts on our country and will spike unemployment/economic distress.

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Unit2.....There are all stages of school, but I think for all to keep your kids out now is best. The young are least susceptible to the bad and worst stages of the viral disease but they can walk/run around with the virus within and acting as a transmitter as transmission can go on before symptoms. I think you have been near enough schools to know they are cesspools of transmission by touch, cough, etc.

Now, next step up is boarding schools and colleges. Can you imagine it taking effect to any degree in any college in America and then sending the students home to all corners of the country and world. Much better to deal early and contain.

Just today I hear of a case in a major Vegas Hotel where the Pac 12 tourney is going on.

So far, businesses and colleges along with many events are being proactive. Let it spread.

As an added note, my wife and I almost signed up for a Continuing Care facility last fall and bailed out late in the game. Right now I look at that as lucky. Imagine for the most part aged people and in a contained facility with people coming and going (grandkids with subclinical disease, employees going home at night, family visits). It is like a massive cruise ship but with the added disadvantage of people in and out all the time. Containment???

I hear you guys but if we shut down elementary schools we are looking at accelerating the massive economic shock. Unless we can get the high school kids to babysit the elementary school kids until the summer starts. Juggling summer camps is already a mess, but with a virus going around I have no idea what to do with my 2 young kids.

I am fortunate in that I have a school-age nanny whose could probably flex to work more for us if our kids' schools shut down, but for many parents it will be impossible to find affordable help and they will end up with one unemployed spouse. Add that to the number of restaurant and other workers about to become unemployed as a result of social distancing and the cost to our economy from failing to get ahead of this problem when it was small just a few weeks ago will be staggering.

And sadly, because it's probably already too late, we are still going to have 9 figures of infected Americans.

I guess it could have been worse, Chicago for example was about to hold its giant annual St Paddy's day parade, before sanity prevailed, they've just cancelled it.

We're past the point where we can stop the epidemic, but drastic actions taken right now can still significantly flatten and extend its peak and potentially save tens of thousands of lives. We've got to look to what China, S. Korea and Singapore have been doing and implement the most drastic measures right now: cancel all events with more than 50 people or fewer, implement telecommuting, close all colleges and schools etc.

Italy has ordered all shops closed except for pharmacies and groceries and quarantined the entire country. They're also implementing a mortgage payment holiday. I think Ireland is also planning a financial relief program for its citizens.

One thing Italy is also doing is promoting med and nursing school students to emergency care positions as they are facing some attrition with staff getting infected. They haven't had a lot of attrition other wise, but you have to wonder if that's going to be a problem in the US at the lower end of the payscale, will all staff face the viral frontlines for $18.25/hr? Albania is paying its nurses and emergency staff a $500/mo bonus, which is a very large sum by their standards, and something that could be implemented here, as well as the hiring of emergency nursing staff from overseas in anticipation of the incoming 3 to 6 month crisis about to explode. "Explosion" and "bomb" were terms that have been frequently used in Italy to describe this crisis.

Unit2Sucks said:

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I hear you guys but if we shut down elementary schools we are looking at accelerating the massive economic shock. Unless we can get the high school kids to babysit the elementary school kids until the summer starts. Juggling summer camps is already a mess, but with a virus going around I have no idea what to do with my 2 young kids.

I am fortunate in that I have a school-age nanny whose could probably flex to work more for us if our kids' schools shut down, but for many parents it will be impossible to find affordable help and they will end up with one unemployed spouse. Add that to the number of restaurant and other workers about to become unemployed as a result of social distancing and the cost to our economy from failing to get ahead of this problem when it was small just a few weeks ago will be staggering.

And sadly, because it's probably already too late, we are still going to have 9 figures of infected Americans.

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This panic makes Trump being elected almost seem smart by comparison. The idea that you would shut down an entire economy for a virus that is mostly only lethal to people who are already have a compromised health care situation is literally the dumbest thing ever.

This nation is truly full of dumb people.

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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Professor Irwin Corey said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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I hear you guys but if we shut down elementary schools we are looking at accelerating the massive economic shock. Unless we can get the high school kids to babysit the elementary school kids until the summer starts. Juggling summer camps is already a mess, but with a virus going around I have no idea what to do with my 2 young kids.

I am fortunate in that I have a school-age nanny whose could probably flex to work more for us if our kids' schools shut down, but for many parents it will be impossible to find affordable help and they will end up with one unemployed spouse. Add that to the number of restaurant and other workers about to become unemployed as a result of social distancing and the cost to our economy from failing to get ahead of this problem when it was small just a few weeks ago will be staggering.

And sadly, because it's probably already too late, we are still going to have 9 figures of infected Americans.

---

This panic makes Trump being elected almost seem smart by comparison. The idea that you would shut down an entire economy for a virus that is mostly only lethal to people who are already have a compromised health care situation is literally the dumbest thing ever.

This nation is truly full of dumb people.

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Your absence of compassion is duly noted.

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Your lack of reading ability is also noted.

Professor Irwin Corey said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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I hear you guys but if we shut down elementary schools we are looking at accelerating the massive economic shock. Unless we can get the high school kids to babysit the elementary school kids until the summer starts. Juggling summer camps is already a mess, but with a virus going around I have no idea what to do with my 2 young kids.

I am fortunate in that I have a school-age nanny whose could probably flex to work more for us if our kids' schools shut down, but for many parents it will be impossible to find affordable help and they will end up with one unemployed spouse. Add that to the number of restaurant and other workers about to become unemployed as a result of social distancing and the cost to our economy from failing to get ahead of this problem when it was small just a few weeks ago will be staggering.

And sadly, because it's probably already too late, we are still going to have 9 figures of infected Americans.

---

This panic makes Trump being elected almost seem smart by comparison. The idea that you would shut down an entire economy for a virus that is mostly only lethal to people who are already have a compromised health care situation is literally the dumbest thing ever.

This nation is truly full of dumb people.

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You're a sociopath.

Cal88 said:

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Professor Irwin Corey said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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I hear you guys but if we shut down elementary schools we are looking at accelerating the massive economic shock. Unless we can get the high school kids to babysit the elementary school kids until the summer starts. Juggling summer camps is already a mess, but with a virus going around I have no idea what to do with my 2 young kids.

I am fortunate in that I have a school-age nanny whose could probably flex to work more for us if our kids' schools shut down, but for many parents it will be impossible to find affordable help and they will end up with one unemployed spouse. Add that to the number of restaurant and other workers about to become unemployed as a result of social distancing and the cost to our economy from failing to get ahead of this problem when it was small just a few weeks ago will be staggering.

And sadly, because it's probably already too late, we are still going to have 9 figures of infected Americans.

---

This panic makes Trump being elected almost seem smart by comparison. The idea that you would shut down an entire economy for a virus that is mostly only lethal to people who are already have a compromised health care situation is literally the dumbest thing ever.

This nation is truly full of dumb people.

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You're a sociopath.

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People go out and participate in life when they have a cold. People go out and participate in life when they have the flu. Even if it's just to go to the store and get medicine to treat their affliction and then go home and rest until they're better. And people who have compromised health care situations are just as at risk from the behavior of those folks as they are if people who are infected with the corona virus are out living their lives. But because this virus is new and doesn't have a vaccine yet, people are freaking out about it, buying a bunch of toilet paper when it has nothing to do with keeping themselves safe, and are willing to shut down their entire lives for something that isn't lethal to 99% of the population.

And I'm a sociopath?

People are just stupid.

Quote:

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Q: How about proactive school closures, before there are any infections associated with a school? Are they helpful?

A: Proactive school closuresclosing schools before there's a case there have been shown to be one of the most powerful nonpharmaceutical interventions that we can deploy. Proactive school closures work like reactive school closures not just because they get the children, the little vectors, removed from circulation. It's not just about keeping the kids safe. It's keeping the whole community safe. When you close the schools, you reduce the mixing of the adultsparents dropping off at the school, the teachers being present. When you close the schools, you effectively require the parents to stay home.

There was a wonderful paper published that analyzed data regarding the Spanish flu in 1918, examining proactive versus reactive school closures. When did [regional] authorities close the schools relative to when the epidemic was spiking? What they found was that proactive school closing saved substantial numbers of lives. St. Louis closed the schools about a day in advance of the epidemic spiking, for 143 days. Pittsburgh closed 7 days after the peak and only for 53 days. And the death rate for the epidemic in St. Louis was roughly one-third as high as in Pittsburgh. These things work.

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https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/does-closing-schools-slow-spread-novel-coronavirus


^ good article on the subject of the need for proactive school closures.

CT public schools, libraries, gyms, etc all shutting down today. Finally.

NOOOOOO!!!!

bearister said:

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Hey, if we don't "over-test" and we keep enough cruise ships out in international waters, we can KEEP THOSE NUMBERS DOWN! We can crush Italy on this like it's WWI II all over again!

> And if the death rate is close to 1 percent, that's a lot of deaths.

yeahbut on a personal level stats don't even matter. the way we feel loss, even just one, of a close friend/relative/neighbor(/celebrity?) is huuuge. and then multiplied by A Lot.

Ok I'm sold on closing schools. Thanks Cal88 for the info.

Dang: Is this the worst day so far?