there are 450 players in the NBA and 3 have tested positive for COVID-19. almost 1 in a 100. World Health Organization statistics show 1 in 100,000 American are infected. Sure NBA players are more likely to contract the virus due to their travel, crowds, etc but not 1000x more likely. Gotta imagine the infection rate in the US population is much higher but we dont know because no on has been tested.

We're just starting to see the covid19 spike in some regions. Here is the situation in NYC:


The graph below is a count of the number of NYC emergency room visits PER DAY over the past twelve months where the chief complaint was an influenza-like illness. You see a big spike from November through January. That is seasonal flu. But you also see a new spike over the past two weeks. This is coronavirus.

This spike is likely to continue building up and become much larger than the normal flu season spike. The silver lining here is that regular flu cases are receding with the weather warming.

graguna said:

---

there are 450 players in the NBA and 3 have tested positive for COVID-19. almost 1 in a 100. World Health Organization statistics show 1 in 100,000 American are infected. Sure NBA players are more likely to contract the virus due to their travel, crowds, etc but not 1000x more likely. Gotta imagine the infection rate in the US population is much higher but we dont know because no on has been tested.

---

yep, good point graguna.

Cal88 said:

---

We're just starting to see the covid19 spike in some regions. Here is the situation in NYC:


The graph below is a count of the number of NYC emergency room visits PER DAY over the past twelve months where the chief complaint was an influenza-like illness. You see a big spike from November through January. That is seasonal flu. But you also see a new spike over the past two weeks. This is coronavirus.

This spike is likely to continue building up and become much larger than the normal flu season spike. The silver lining here is that regular flu cases are receding with the weather warming.

---

Just wanted to tell you what an A+ job you have been doing on this. Thank you!

Cheers Bearister!

Cal88 said:

---

Cheers Bearister!

---

graguna said:

---

there are 450 players in the NBA and 3 have tested positive for COVID-19. almost 1 in a 100. World Health Organization statistics show 1 in 100,000 American are infected. Sure NBA players are more likely to contract the virus due to their travel, crowds, etc but not 1000x more likely. Gotta imagine the infection rate in the US population is much higher but we dont know because no on has been tested.

---

My kids and I are self-isolating at home with minor viral symptoms that we hope are just a cold. We have Kaiser. If it gets to the point where we would need treatment or feel like we should be tested, we need to call their "advice nurse" line. Anybody who has ever had Kaiser knows that is not very convenient... in normal times. It must be a zoo right now. So why would I want to deal with that, unless I felt like I was having difficulty breathing?

At this point, we are testing as few people as we possibly can. The state and national numbers for people testing positive so far has GOT to be an effing joke. I understand the ability to test large numbers of us will be really ramped up fairly soon... just in time for the onslaught.

Big C said:

---

graguna said:

---

there are 450 players in the NBA and 3 have tested positive for COVID-19. almost 1 in a 100. World Health Organization statistics show 1 in 100,000 American are infected. Sure NBA players are more likely to contract the virus due to their travel, crowds, etc but not 1000x more likely. Gotta imagine the infection rate in the US population is much higher but we dont know because no on has been tested.

---

My kids and I are self-isolating at home with minor viral symptoms that we hope are just a cold. We have Kaiser. If it gets to the point where we would need treatment or feel like we should be tested, we need to call their "advice nurse" line. Anybody who has ever had Kaiser knows that is not very convenient... in normal times. It must be a zoo right now. So why would I want to deal with that, unless I felt like I was having difficulty breathing?

At this point, we are testing as few people as we possibly can. The state and national numbers for people testing positive so far has GOT to be an effing joke. I understand the ability to test large numbers of us will be really ramped up fairly soon... just in time for the onslaught.

---

i took my daughter to Kaiser at 845 AM on Thursday. I made a same day appointment at 7 AM with her non primary doctor but one in the same office. It turns out she has an ear infection. Despite being quarantined when we arrived, process was relatively painless. I was pleasantly surprised.

Good luck oski003 and Big C. Hopefully everyone is clear. I'm recovering from a cold (which is a bit terrifying because I was social distancing when I got sick!) and in the middle of the night one of the Jr U2S's woke up with a sore throat but was fine in the morning. Minor symptoms that I never would have thought about in the past now have me nervous. Here's hoping the country is committed enough to social distancing / quarantine to really slow this thing down over the next few weeks.

If we don't use enough rigor, it will extend the pain and wreak even more havoc with our economy. The interplay between reducing sever infections and avoiding the disproportionate negative impact the slowing economy will have on the most financially vulnerable is going to be quite a challenge.

oski003 said:

---

Big C said:

---

graguna said:

---

there are 450 players in the NBA and 3 have tested positive for COVID-19. almost 1 in a 100. World Health Organization statistics show 1 in 100,000 American are infected. Sure NBA players are more likely to contract the virus due to their travel, crowds, etc but not 1000x more likely. Gotta imagine the infection rate in the US population is much higher but we dont know because no on has been tested.

---

My kids and I are self-isolating at home with minor viral symptoms that we hope are just a cold. We have Kaiser. If it gets to the point where we would need treatment or feel like we should be tested, we need to call their "advice nurse" line. Anybody who has ever had Kaiser knows that is not very convenient... in normal times. It must be a zoo right now. So why would I want to deal with that, unless I felt like I was having difficulty breathing?

At this point, we are testing as few people as we possibly can. The state and national numbers for people testing positive so far has GOT to be an effing joke. I understand the ability to test large numbers of us will be really ramped up fairly soon... just in time for the onslaught.

---

i took my daughter to Kaiser at 845 AM on Thursday. I made a same day appointment at 7 AM with her non primary doctor but one in the same office. It turns out she has an ear infection. Despite being quarantined when we arrived, process was relatively painless. I was pleasantly surprised.

---

Sounds like your daughter is fine by now (or will be soon) and that's great. Last Thursday morning? You just made it! Thursday was just about when things began to get crazy, but you could still walk into a Safeway and easily buy what you wanted (except for disinfectant wipes).

I fear that calling Kaiser now (and getting through) is going to be a lot harder... and harder... and harder.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends no gatherings of more than 50 people for the next 8 weeks as health officials work to contain the coronavirus outbreak.

The CDC issued the new guidelines on Sunday night.

My guess is that sales in these two sectors will go through the roof in coming months:

1. Alcohol;

2. Home gym equipment.

Positive test for Cal student.

bearister said:

---

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends no gatherings of more than 50 people for the next 8 weeks as health officials work to contain the coronavirus outbreak.

The CDC issued the new guidelines on Sunday night.

My guess is that sales in these two sectors will go through the roof in coming months:

1. Alcohol;

2. Home gym equipment.

---

Let me add that Cal 88s efforts have been most appreciated as we try to decipher what is best for us individually.

And let me add to your list:

Online communication systems like Zoom Communications......Schools, workplaces all using this relatively new software....Look it up, ZM..........

OdontoBear66 said:

---

Let me add that Cal 88s efforts have been most appreciated as we try to decipher what is best for us individually.

And let me add to your list:

Online communication systems like Zoom Communications......Schools, workplaces all using this relatively new software....Look it up, ZM..........

---

wikiwiki linked https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoom_Video_Communications
> Zoom Video Communications is a remote conferencing services company headquartered in San Jose, California. It provides remote conferencing services that combines video conferencing, online meetings, chat, and mobile collaboration

• 1History
  
  • 1.1Early years
  • 1.2As a "unicorn"
  • 1.3Publicly-traded company
• 2Security issues

LOL at people talking about flattening the curve. Really, just LOL at every last one of them. It's already too late. This virus was active and spreading long before everybody decided to panic about it.

You are just going to have to ride it out. It's going to get worse and even if every single person stayed home and never left the house once (wholly unrealistic), it's still going to get a lot worse. Accept it as the new reality and find ways to deal with it the best that you can.

B.A. Bearacus said:

---

---

I don't really find these sorts of posts helpful.

How do we even know who "her friend" is or if she is even a real person herself?

I don't want to minimize the threat, because my employer is now making me telecommute starting Tuesday, but we do need to put things into perspective.

I had a conversation tonight with my neighbor who is a physician (neurologist) who used to work for a lab researching coronaviruses 20 years ago before going into private practice. He said: "I know just about everything there is to know about coronaviruses and the immune response to them." His research focused on the potential link between coronaviruses and autoimmune diseases such as MS. Since then, obviously, he is no longer at the forefront of research, but he is still following the literature (and the news) closely.

He is keeping his practice open next week in part because his patients need him and in part because his employees need to get paid. His advice to me is the simple advice we have all been given, which is to wash your hands frequently, cover your mouth when you cough, avoid large crowds, and stay home if you feel ill. He said that all of this advice about staying locked inside and not going out in public is based on hysteria and posts like the above just feed that hysteria. He and his wife then went out to dinner together.

It was nice knowing him!

dimitrig said:

---

B.A. Bearacus said:

---

---

I don't really find these sorts of posts helpful.

How do we even know who "her friend" is or if she is even a real person herself?

I don't want to minimize the threat, because my employer is now making me telecommute starting Tuesday, but we do need to put things into perspective.

I had a conversation tonight with my neighbor who is a physician (neurologist) who used to work for a lab researching coronaviruses 20 years ago before going into private practice. He said: "I know just about everything there is to know about coronaviruses and the immune response to them." His research focused on the potential link between coronaviruses and autoimmune diseases such as MS. Since then, obviously, he is no longer at the forefront of research, but he is still following the literature (and the news) closely.

He is keeping his practice open next week in part because his patients need him and in part because his employees need to get paid. His advice to me is the simple advice we have all been given, which is to wash your hands frequently, cover your mouth when you cough, avoid large crowds, and stay home if you feel ill. He said that all of this advice about staying locked inside and not going out in public is based on hysteria and posts like the above just feed that hysteria. He and his wife then went out to dinner together.

It was nice knowing him!

---

Glasser is a legit reporter for the New Yorker (check), the other person has a verified Twitter account and looking at her bio seems like she would have a lot to lose professionally by introducing a hoax tweet exchange that she claims to have participated in (good enough, check).

Does your friend have Google set up in a way that any news story with the word "Italy" is excluded from results?

B.A. Bearacus said:

---

dimitrig said:

---

B.A. Bearacus said:

---

---

I don't really find these sorts of posts helpful.

How do we even know who "her friend" is or if she is even a real person herself?

I don't want to minimize the threat, because my employer is now making me telecommute starting Tuesday, but we do need to put things into perspective.

I had a conversation tonight with my neighbor who is a physician (neurologist) who used to work for a lab researching coronaviruses 20 years ago before going into private practice. He said: "I know just about everything there is to know about coronaviruses and the immune response to them." His research focused on the potential link between coronaviruses and autoimmune diseases such as MS. Since then, obviously, he is no longer at the forefront of research, but he is still following the literature (and the news) closely.

He is keeping his practice open next week in part because his patients need him and in part because his employees need to get paid. His advice to me is the simple advice we have all been given, which is to wash your hands frequently, cover your mouth when you cough, avoid large crowds, and stay home if you feel ill. He said that all of this advice about staying locked inside and not going out in public is based on hysteria and posts like the above just feed that hysteria. He and his wife then went out to dinner together.

It was nice knowing him!

---

Glasser is a legit reporter for the New Yorker (check), the other person has a verified Twitter account and looking at her bio seems like she would have a lot to lose professionally by introducing a hoax tweet exchange (good enough, check).

Does your friend have Google set up in a way that any news story with the word "Italy" is excluded from results?

---

To be honest, his main concern was not First World countries like the US, China, or Italy but rather Third World nations which might be really ravaged by this because they won't have access to the information and the health care we have. That could then lead to a second or third wave in this nation - perhaps worse than the first - once everyone has let their guard down.

He said it was in our best interests to make sure that everyone is tested and that treatments (and a vaccine once we have one, which we will) are made widely available across the world. To say he is disappointed with the government's response is an understatement. However, hoarding toilet paper and canned goods isn't going to solve any problems. Be sensible, not hysterical. I went to two grocery stores today that had no fresh chicken. It was all sold out. They had beef, but not chicken. I don't think the media is helping and neither are all of our public institutions which are shutting down in response. That just fans the flames of the hysteria.

That is not to say that tens of thousand of people in the US won't die from it. They will. The percentage of healthy adults (and children) under 50 who will die from it is likely to be extremely small.

Here is the data from China:




Edit: Estimates are that 4M Americans will be infected by May. If about 1% of them die (10 times the regular rate of the common flu, which seems reasonable as mortality rates will decrease as testing increases) that means 40,000 deaths. That is about the same as a bad "regular" flu season and yet people don't go batshizznit crazy every flu season. The press likes to repeat things like: "Every hospital bed will be filled by May" or "There won't be enough ventilators" (which are both probably true and what the ER doctor quoted was alluding to) but those sorts of statements are meant to garner headlines. All they do is illicit panic. People are hyperaware. People are taking precautions. That's good. Scaring people for ratings isn't.

Appreciate that you took the time to share your friend's insights and opinion, and I trust he is way more informed than the average person on this subject, but as a nation we need to trust one person more than anyone else right now: Anthony Fauci.

From Sunday, on the subject of "overreacting":

"I think we should be overly aggressive and get criticized for overreacting... I think Americans should be prepared that they are going to have to hunker down significantly more than we as a country are doing."

"If it looks like you're overreacting, you're probably doing the right thing."

"We'll be thankful that we're overreacting."

"Italy left the virus 'to its own devices,' leading the number of cases to 'go way up.'"

[Quotes from Axios and The Hill]

dimitrig said:

---

Edit: Estimates are that 4M Americans will be infected by May. If about 1% of them die (10 times the regular rate of the common flu, which seems reasonable as mortality rates will decrease as testing increases) that means 40,000 deaths. That is about the same as a bad "regular" flu season and yet people don't go batshizznit crazy every flu season. The press likes to repeat things like: "Every hospital bed will be filled by May" or "There won't be enough ventilators" (which are both probably true and what the ER doctor quoted was alluding to) but those sorts of statements are meant to garner headlines. All they do is illicit panic. People are hyperaware. People are taking precautions. That's good. Scaring people for ratings isn't.

---

Well, let me ask you this: once all major sports leagues were basically shuttered because of this disease, how exactly was that not going to set off some level of panic? Do you disagree with decisions like that? Or decisions made by cities and states to cancel all events over a certain size?

Sure, "the press" might run some sensationalized stories here and there, but it seems to me that some of this panic is just a natural byproduct of necessary steps that have been taken to slow the spread of disease.

sycasey said:

---

Professor Harry Edwards said:

---

LOL at people talking about flattening the curve. Really, just LOL at every last one of them. It's already too late. This virus was active and spreading long before everybody decided to panic about it.

You are just going to have to ride it out. It's going to get worse and even if every single person stayed home and never left the house once (wholly unrealistic), it's still going to get a lot worse. Accept it as the new reality and find ways to deal with it the best that you can.

---

So is your suggestion that these isolation measures are pointless and would have no effect, despite what virtually every expert says? I'm confused as to your point.

---

Isolate to your heart's content. The number of infected is going to grow exponentially anyway. The time for slowing the disease was after the first positive test in the country. It's already much too late for that now.

sycasey said:

---

dimitrig said:

---

Edit: Estimates are that 4M Americans will be infected by May. If about 1% of them die (10 times the regular rate of the common flu, which seems reasonable as mortality rates will decrease as testing increases) that means 40,000 deaths. That is about the same as a bad "regular" flu season and yet people don't go batshizznit crazy every flu season. The press likes to repeat things like: "Every hospital bed will be filled by May" or "There won't be enough ventilators" (which are both probably true and what the ER doctor quoted was alluding to) but those sorts of statements are meant to garner headlines. All they do is illicit panic. People are hyperaware. People are taking precautions. That's good. Scaring people for ratings isn't.

---

Well, let me ask you this: once all major sports leagues were basically shuttered because of this disease, how exactly was that not going to set off some level of panic? Do you disagree with decisions like that? Or decisions made by cities and states to cancel all events over a certain size?

Sure, "the press" might run some sensationalized stories here and there, but it seems to me that some of this panic is just a natural byproduct of necessary steps that have been taken to slow the spread of disease.

---

I think it should be up to the leagues and their employees. If they decide to do so then I support that. Professional athletes travel more and are exposed to more people than the average person. In addition, their health is an extremely important facet of their career and their value to their employers. If they are sick then the product will suffer. However, I will be extremely surprised if a single professional athlete dies as a result of this virus. We should not compare ourselves to major sports leagues.

Do I agree with the decisions to cancel all events over a certain size...? Hmmm. Let me put it this way. I wouldn't be going to Coachella right now, but I am not exactly quaking in my boots about visiting to my local brewpub let alone a winery. However, I am under 50 and have a decent immune system. I always use hand sanitizer religiously - so much so that I my biggest fear is that I won't be able to buy more when I finally run out because of all of the idiots out there who are hoarding it thanks to the media. At least I happen to have enough toilet paper for now.

At the moment I am genuinely more concerned about running out of food than I am about the coronavirus. I am the type that shops frequently for fresh food (I don't eat a lot of frozen or canned food) and grocery stores are starting to run out of staples like (as mentioned) chicken and even rice (!). Only the expensive foods like steak are still on the shelves. I joke frequently with my significant other than if this keeps up we will be forced (luckily we are blessed with the income) to be eating lobster or swordfish every day until the pandemic ends. Perhaps it will bankrupt us in the process. I am, however, enjoying the traffic. All of the freeways in LA are wide open for the first time since the 1984 Olympics. It's great to be able to go 80 again!

Rumors are flying in the military that a national lock down is well planned and/or imminent.

Let's squash the above right now.

dimitrig said:

---

B.A. Bearacu said:

---

...

---

To be honest, his main concern was not First World countries like the US, China, or Italy but rather Third World nations which might be really ravaged by this because they won't have access to the information and the health care we have. That could then lead to a second or third wave in this nation - perhaps worse than the first - once everyone has let their guard down.

He said it was in our best interests to make sure that everyone is tested and that treatments (and a vaccine once we have one, which we will) are made widely available across the world. To say he is disappointed with the government's response is an understatement. However, hoarding toilet paper and canned goods isn't going to solve any problems. Be sensible, not hysterical. I went to two grocery stores today that had no fresh chicken. It was all sold out. They had beef, but not chicken. I don't think the media is helping and neither are all of our public institutions which are shutting down in response. That just fans the flames of the hysteria.

That is not to say that tens of thousand of people in the US won't die from it. They will. The percentage of healthy adults (and children) under 50 who will die from it is likely to be extremely small.

Here is the data from China:




Edit: Estimates are that 4M Americans will be infected by May. If about 1% of them die (10 times the regular rate of the common flu, which seems reasonable as mortality rates will decrease as testing increases) that means 40,000 deaths. That is about the same as a bad "regular" flu season and yet people don't go batshizznit crazy every flu season. The press likes to repeat things like: "Every hospital bed will be filled by May" or "There won't be enough ventilators" (which are both probably true and what the ER doctor quoted was alluding to) but those sorts of statements are meant to garner headlines. All they do is illicit panic. People are hyperaware. People are taking precautions. That's good. Scaring people for ratings isn't.

---

Here's the flaw in your reasoning: without stringent social isolation measures, we will have a much higher percentage of infected American than that 1.3% (or 4 million), we could be looking at over 100+ million infected.
[url=https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm][/url]
The last flu season has hit 30M-50M Americans, I think covid19 has a higher R0 or contagion rate due to its longer incubation period.

Professor Harry Edwards said:

---

sycasey said:

---

Professor Harry Edwards said:

---

LOL at people talking about flattening the curve. Really, just LOL at every last one of them. It's already too late. This virus was active and spreading long before everybody decided to panic about it.

You are just going to have to ride it out. It's going to get worse and even if every single person stayed home and never left the house once (wholly unrealistic), it's still going to get a lot worse. Accept it as the new reality and find ways to deal with it the best that you can.

---

So is your suggestion that these isolation measures are pointless and would have no effect, despite what virtually every expert says? I'm confused as to your point.

---

Isolate to your heart's content. The number of infected is going to grow exponentially anyway. The time for slowing the disease was after the first positive test in the country. It's already much too late for that now.

---

Your original post that sycasey had questions about was a lot better. Yes, the time may have been earlier but I cannot agree that isolation is too late now. That alternative will lead to Italy like results. Late or not, do as much as possible to minimize.

B.A. Bearacus said:

---

Let's squash the above right now.

---

Spain has just implemented a national lockdown, same measures imposed in Italy, after its number of dead just doubled overnight to 288. Guidelines are for no travel except to work or the grocery store/pharmacy. France has also shut down all public places and non-essential shops (restaurants, bars, theaters, etc).

We're headed there. The question is if a complete lockdown will be implemented, with most offices and non-essential work shut down.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Snchez's wife tested positive for the virus, as did Canada's Justin Trudeau's wife. This indicates that the virus is much more spread in those countries than what the official stats in indicate, for example in Spain that number is currently 6,300.

dimitrig said:

---

sycasey said:

---

dimitrig said:

---

Edit: Estimates are that 4M Americans will be infected by May. If about 1% of them die (10 times the regular rate of the common flu, which seems reasonable as mortality rates will decrease as testing increases) that means 40,000 deaths. That is about the same as a bad "regular" flu season and yet people don't go batshizznit crazy every flu season. The press likes to repeat things like: "Every hospital bed will be filled by May" or "There won't be enough ventilators" (which are both probably true and what the ER doctor quoted was alluding to) but those sorts of statements are meant to garner headlines. All they do is illicit panic. People are hyperaware. People are taking precautions. That's good. Scaring people for ratings isn't.

---

Well, let me ask you this: once all major sports leagues were basically shuttered because of this disease, how exactly was that not going to set off some level of panic? Do you disagree with decisions like that? Or decisions made by cities and states to cancel all events over a certain size?

Sure, "the press" might run some sensationalized stories here and there, but it seems to me that some of this panic is just a natural byproduct of necessary steps that have been taken to slow the spread of disease.

---

I think it should be up to the leagues and their employees. If they decide to do so then I support that. Professional athletes travel more and are exposed to more people than the average person. In addition, their health is an extremely important facet of their career and their value to their employers. If they are sick then the product will suffer. However, I will be extremely surprised if a single professional athlete dies as a result of this virus. We should not compare ourselves to major sports leagues.

Do I agree with the decisions to cancel all events over a certain size...? Hmmm. Let me put it this way. I wouldn't be going to Coachella right now, but I am not exactly quaking in my boots about visiting to my local brewpub let alone a winery. However, I am under 50 and have a decent immune system. I always use hand sanitizer religiously - so much so that I my biggest fear is that I won't be able to buy more when I finally run out because of all of the idiots out there who are hoarding it thanks to the media. At least I happen to have enough toilet paper for now.

At the moment I am genuinely more concerned about running out of food than I am about the coronavirus. I am the type that shops frequently for fresh food (I don't eat a lot of frozen or canned food) and grocery stores are starting to run out of staples like (as mentioned) chicken and even rice (!). Only the expensive foods like steak are still on the shelves. I joke frequently with my significant other than if this keeps up we will be forced (luckily we are blessed with the income) to be eating lobster or swordfish every day until the pandemic ends. Perhaps it will bankrupt us in the process. I am, however, enjoying the traffic. All of the freeways in LA are wide open for the first time since the 1984 Olympics. It's great to be able to go 80 again!

---

The problem is that it's not just about you (nor is the NBA's decision just about its own players). Sure, you will probably survive just fine. But the issue is that if people pass the virus around too quickly, health care systems could be overwhelmed and unable to treat the sick. This is not conjecture, as it's already played out that way in Italy.

I do agree that people shouldn't hoard food, since all indications are that grocery stores and delivery services continue to remain open even in countries with more stringent lockdowns. But that should probably subside after the first week or two.

This FT page is really good for tracking the epidemic across the world:

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

Here is the current snapshot, it shows that the progress in Spain, the latest country to be hit, has been faster than in countries hit earlier:



I think the lower path in the US is a reflection of the lack of testing, we're probably closer to the path in Spain or Italy. Iran and possibly Japan might have been reporting lower numbers than the actual count.

This chart uses n=100 as the reference point:

On the subject of work-related exposure to covid19:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/15/business/economy/coronavirus-worker-risk.html



The article points out that some of the highest-risk jobs are low-paying jobs that don't offer sick leaves.


And a good introduction on the dynamics of social distancing with interesting simulations:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

dimitrig said:

---

sycasey

dimitrig said:

---

...

---

Well, let me ask you this: once all major sports leagues were basically shuttered because of this disease, how exactly was that not going to set off some level of panic? Do you disagree with decisions like that? Or decisions made by cities and states to cancel all events over a certain size?

Sure, "the press" might run some sensationalized stories here and there, but it seems to me that some of this panic is just a natural byproduct of necessary steps that have been taken to slow the spread of disease.

I think it should be up to the leagues and their employees. If they decide to do so then I support that. Professional athletes travel more and are exposed to more people than the average person. In addition, their health is an extremely important facet of their career and their value to their employers. If they are sick then the product will suffer. However, I will be extremely surprised if a single professional athlete dies as a result of this virus. We should not compare ourselves to major sports leagues.

Do I agree with the decisions to cancel all events over a certain size...? Hmmm. Let me put it this way. I wouldn't be going to Coachella right now, but I am not exactly quaking in my boots about visiting to my local brewpub let alone a winery. However, I am under 50 and have a decent immune system. I always use hand sanitizer religiously - so much so that I my biggest fear is that I won't be able to buy more when I finally run out because of all of the idiots out there who are hoarding it thanks to the media. At least I happen to have enough toilet paper for now.

At the moment I am genuinely more concerned about running out of food than I am about the coronavirus. I am the type that shops frequently for fresh food (I don't eat a lot of frozen or canned food) and grocery stores are starting to run out of staples like (as mentioned) chicken and even rice (!). Only the expensive foods like steak are still on the shelves. I joke frequently with my significant other than if this keeps up we will be forced (luckily we are blessed with the income) to be eating lobster or swordfish every day until the pandemic ends. Perhaps it will bankrupt us in the process. I am, however, enjoying the traffic. All of the freeways in LA are wide open for the first time since the 1984 Olympics. It's great to be able to go 80 again!

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We're not going to run out of food, but choices will be restrained going into the first week of generalized hoarding, with popular items going fast. We'll be back to normal in April for most items once all the hoarders are done.

This might be a good opportunity to go outside your regular rotation and try different dishes, last evening at my local supermarket all the meat items were gone except for veal liver, so that's what I had for dinner, courtesy of YT chef Michel Dumas, who has an awesome cooking channel:

In northern Italy, there has been a noted increase in the number of younger patients in their 30s and 40s coming in with serious pulmonary ailments:

http://www.imolaoggi.it/2020/03/14/coronavirus-eta-media-pazienti-terapia-intensiva-si-abbassa/

translation: "Bergamo 14th March. Every day we have more patients coming in and the median age has dramatically lowered, and we are seeing healthy 30, 40 and 50-year-olds who are coming in with serious pneumonia," anesthaetist Ivano Riva told Italian television program Piazzapulita "

This is a powerful short video showing how in the gorgeous lake district city of Bergamo, a town about the size of Berkeley, the obituary section in the local daily has grown from 2 to 10 pages: