"Perhaps that's the story of life." Great Leader

Of course, this is just the beginning. Best case forecasts see interrupted economic and social lives for 12-18 months. Really sad. I'm wondering why not pull off the band aid -- it will hurt for 2 months -- in order to be done with this

GBear4Life said:

---

Of course, this is just the beginning. Best case forecasts see interrupted economic and social lives for 12-18 months. Really sad. I'm wondering why not pull off the band aid -- it will hurt for 2 months -- in order to be done with this

---

I would argue because America is too large and disperse a country for "martial law" to really hold for an extended period. We also have a populace that will naturally rebel against draconian attempts to control them. Not the right solution for us.

sycasey said:

---

GBear4Life said:

---

Of course, this is just the beginning. Best case forecasts see interrupted economic and social lives for 12-18 months. Really sad. I'm wondering why not pull off the band aid -- it will hurt for 2 months -- in order to be done with this

---

I would argue because America is too large and disperse a country for "martial law" to really hold for an extended period. We also have a populace that will naturally rebel against draconian attempts to control them. Not the right solution for us.

---

I'm saying it's the more prudent and effective solution, and it heightens the impact but relegates it to a much shorter time frame.

I agree that it would be met with hostility by some considerable number of Americans. But I'm not concerned with feelings right now.

GBear4Life said:

---

sycasey said:

---

GBear4Life said:

---

Of course, this is just the beginning. Best case forecasts see interrupted economic and social lives for 12-18 months. Really sad. I'm wondering why not pull off the band aid -- it will hurt for 2 months -- in order to be done with this

---

I would argue because America is too large and disperse a country for "martial law" to really hold for an extended period. We also have a populace that will naturally rebel against draconian attempts to control them. Not the right solution for us.

---

I'm saying it's the more prudent and effective solution, and it heightens the impact but relegates it to a much shorter time frame.

I agree that it would be met with hostility by some considerable number of Americans. But I'm not concerned with feelings right now.

---

I would argue the hostility towards such an order would create more trouble than it's worth. I suppose if the public-health experts start to agree that a more severe 2 month lockdown will completely stop the virus then I could be convinced, but I'm not sure that evidence is there yet.

sycasey said:

---

GBear4Life said:

---

sycasey said:

---

GBear4Life said:

---

Of course, this is just the beginning. Best case forecasts see interrupted economic and social lives for 12-18 months. Really sad. I'm wondering why not pull off the band aid -- it will hurt for 2 months -- in order to be done with this

---

I would argue because America is too large and disperse a country for "martial law" to really hold for an extended period. We also have a populace that will naturally rebel against draconian attempts to control them. Not the right solution for us.

---

I'm saying it's the more prudent and effective solution, and it heightens the impact but relegates it to a much shorter time frame.

I agree that it would be met with hostility by some considerable number of Americans. But I'm not concerned with feelings right now.

---

I would argue the hostility towards such an order would create more trouble than it's worth. I suppose if the public-health experts start to agree that a more severe 2 month lockdown will completely stop the virus then I could be convinced, but I'm not sure that evidence is there yet.

---

what's more trouble than this for the next 18 months? What isn't worth avoiding THAT?

GBear4Life said:

---

sycasey said:

---

GBear4Life said:

---

Of course, this is just the beginning. Best case forecasts see interrupted economic and social lives for 12-18 months. Really sad. I'm wondering why not pull off the band aid -- it will hurt for 2 months -- in order to be done with this

---

I would argue because America is too large and disperse a country for "martial law" to really hold for an extended period. We also have a populace that will naturally rebel against draconian attempts to control them. Not the right solution for us.

---

I'm saying it's the more prudent and effective solution, and it heightens the impact but relegates it to a much shorter time frame.

---

I agree that it would be met with hostility by some considerable number of Americans. But I'm not concerned with feelings right now. First of all I agree with you that more draconian measures should be in place. It is very clear to me that many people have no freaking clue on this. And some of the government messaging well intended as it may be, is not helping. It is very clear that many people are not going to understand until we actually get to the point that our hospitals are overwhelmed. That trend line for Italy and where we fall on it should be burned on people's brains.

I disagree with you on the 45 days. And I disagree with people who seem to think that we could have dealt with this with travel restrictions alone. That was never going to happen. The virus is going to eventually spread. The travel restrictions were a very necessary step. As are the all the steps being taken to slow the spread. However, the only thing those measures do is buy you time to do what needs to be done.

[ol]

We need to create a vaccine

We need to find an ameliorating medicine

We need to be manufacturing ventilators like crazy

We need to be transitioning medical facilities to be capable of ICU treatment.

We need to martial other facilities (military or otherwise) into temporary medical facilities

We need to get a handle on how to deploy medical personnel and move them from non urgent tasks to urgent tasks.

[/ol]
I disagree with the notion that we can wipe out the virus in 45 days. We need to buy time to get all those things up and running as much as possible.

Regarding some of the reporting it is obvious that the most clicks is going to go to the stories that have the most dire predictions. That doesn't exactly help. I don't believe we have to shut down the economy for over a year. However, some measures may go beyond a year. Some may be permanent. Shaking hands is stupid. That can go, permanently. Many industries have been slow to adopt telecommuting practices, often because of a false notion that productivity will drop because people will sit around in their bunny slippers (productivity goes up). I'd expect the rate of telecommuting to go up. That might be something that companies adopt for a year. And, frankly, once they see the cost savings, that might be permanent. This will actually provide some benefits to the economy. Some industries will do better. People will be able to have more flexibility in where they live, spreading the wealth geographically. My guess is that vulnerable populations will be told to self quarantine until they can get vaccinated.

Some of these reports are purposefully answering every question in the worst possible scenario. Assume there will be no seasonality to the virus. Assume that those that get it will have little to no immunity to reinfection (unlikely). Governments and health organizations need to be aware of this and be prepared. But that should not lead all of us to the conclusion that everything is going to be hell for the next million years. It did peak and come under control in China. It is doubtful that is only due to social restrictions. There are some early signs that the rate of increase of new cases in Italy is slowing. That doesn't mean it is over. But maybe the most acute phase is over. Maybe. What we need to do is watch Wuhan. Watch Italy. But for now, get through the acute phase. I fear that freaking people out about year long quarantines and economic catastrophe leads people to 1. Be less likely to be willing to do what they need to do for the next several weeks; and 2. Get to the "what the hell, they are going to die anyway, why let it impact the economy" phase.

sycasey said:

---

GBear4Life said:

---

sycasey said:

---

GBear4Life said:

---

Of course, this is just the beginning. Best case forecasts see interrupted economic and social lives for 12-18 months. Really sad. I'm wondering why not pull off the band aid -- it will hurt for 2 months -- in order to be done with this

---

I would argue because America is too large and disperse a country for "martial law" to really hold for an extended period. We also have a populace that will naturally rebel against draconian attempts to control them. Not the right solution for us.

---

I'm saying it's the more prudent and effective solution, and it heightens the impact but relegates it to a much shorter time frame.

I agree that it would be met with hostility by some considerable number of Americans. But I'm not concerned with feelings right now.

---

I would argue the hostility towards such an order would create more trouble than it's worth. I suppose if the public-health experts start to agree that a more severe 2 month lockdown will completely stop the virus then I could be convinced, but I'm not sure that evidence is there yet.

---

Sometimes you have to not let people be effing morons. I am massively disappointed at the public response to a shelter in place order in the Bay Area and I'd bet we are responding better than most. It is clear that some people won't get the clue until they are breathing their last breath alone in a hallway waiting for a ventilator that will never come.

OaktownBear said:

---

GBear4Life said:

---

sycasey said:

---

GBear4Life said:

---

Of course, this is just the beginning. Best case forecasts see interrupted economic and social lives for 12-18 months. Really sad. I'm wondering why not pull off the band aid -- it will hurt for 2 months -- in order to be done with this

---

I would argue because America is too large and disperse a country for "martial law" to really hold for an extended period. We also have a populace that will naturally rebel against draconian attempts to control them. Not the right solution for us.

---

I'm saying it's the more prudent and effective solution, and it heightens the impact but relegates it to a much shorter time frame.

---

I agree that it would be met with hostility by some considerable number of Americans. But I'm not concerned with feelings right now. First of all I agree with you that more draconian measures should be in place. It is very clear to me that many people have no freaking clue on this. And some of the government messaging well intended as it may be, is not helping. It is very clear that many people are not going to understand until we actually get to the point that our hospitals are overwhelmed. That trend line for Italy and where we fall on it should be burned on people's brains.

I disagree with you on the 45 days. And I disagree with people who seem to think that we could have dealt with this with travel restrictions alone. That was never going to happen. The virus is going to eventually spread. The travel restrictions were a very necessary step. As are the all the steps being taken to slow the spread. However, the only thing those measures do is buy you time to do what needs to be done.

[ol]

We need to create a vaccine

We need to find an ameliorating medicine

We need to be manufacturing ventilators like crazy

We need to be transitioning medical facilities to be capable of ICU treatment.

We need to martial other facilities (military or otherwise) into temporary medical facilities

We need to get a handle on how to deploy medical personnel and move them from non urgent tasks to urgent tasks.

[/ol]
I disagree with the notion that we can wipe out the virus in 45 days. We need to buy time to get all those things up and running as much as possible.

Regarding some of the reporting it is obvious that the most clicks is going to go to the stories that have the most dire predictions. That doesn't exactly help. I don't believe we have to shut down the economy for over a year. However, some measures may go beyond a year. Some may be permanent. Shaking hands is stupid. That can go, permanently. Many industries have been slow to adopt telecommuting practices, often because of a false notion that productivity will drop because people will sit around in their bunny slippers (productivity goes up). I'd expect the rate of telecommuting to go up. That might be something that companies adopt for a year. And, frankly, once they see the cost savings, that might be permanent. This will actually provide some benefits to the economy. Some industries will do better. People will be able to have more flexibility in where they live, spreading the wealth geographically. My guess is that vulnerable populations will be told to self quarantine until they can get vaccinated.

Some of these reports are purposefully answering every question in the worst possible scenario. Assume there will be no seasonality to the virus. Assume that those that get it will have little to no immunity to reinfection (unlikely). Governments and health organizations need to be aware of this and be prepared. But that should not lead all of us to the conclusion that everything is going to be hell for the next million years. It did peak and come under control in China. It is doubtful that is only due to social restrictions. There are some early signs that the rate of increase of new cases in Italy is slowing. That doesn't mean it is over. But maybe the most acute phase is over. Maybe. What we need to do is watch Wuhan. Watch Italy. But for now, get through the acute phase. I fear that freaking people out about year long quarantines and economic catastrophe leads people to 1. Be less likely to be willing to do what they need to do for the next several weeks; and 2. Get to the "what the hell, they are going to die anyway, why let it impact the economy" phase.

---

If we keep playing defensive mode, we are looking at a partially shut down society like we are now for 12-18 months. The economy is in part shut down already. And its very segmented. It is slowing down the inevitable for a narrow purpose.

How would the virus get here if we banned all international flight arrivals (and by sea)? The time to get Draconian was over two months ago. But better now than never.

What draconian measures do you support?

How is the current "shelter in place" orders, which is NOT lock down -- people can come and go and hang out as they please -- going to make a considerable dent in the spread of this? It buys us some time to make ventilators? That's pretty defensive.

thanks OTB

GBear4Life said:

---

How is the current "shelter in place" orders, which is NOT lock down -- people can come and go and hang out as they please -- going to make a considerable dent in the spread of this? It buys us some time to make ventilators? That's pretty defensive.

---

I can only speak for the city I live in which is sf, but the number of people out and about is dramatically less. It is true that some people are out, but for the most part people are not outside, which I would imagine dramatically limits exposure hence the spread.

OaktownBear said:

---

Sometimes you have to not let people be effing morons. I am massively disappointed at the public response to a shelter in place order in the Bay Area and I'd bet we are responding better than most. It is clear that some people won't get the clue until they are breathing their last breath alone in a hallway waiting for a ventilator that will never come.

---

So what else do you think needs to happen? What are you seeing that disappoints you?

I am well aware of the Italian situation which is why I haven't complained about the shelter in place order. What else is missing?

golden sloth said:

---

GBear4Life said:

---

How is the current "shelter in place" orders, which is NOT lock down -- people can come and go and hang out as they please -- going to make a considerable dent in the spread of this? It buys us some time to make ventilators? That's pretty defensive.

---

I can only speak for the city I live in which is sf, but the number of people out and about is dramatically less. It is true that some people are out, but for the most part people are not outside, which I would imagine dramatically limits exposure hence the spread.

---

This is also what I'm seeing. Areas that used to be bustling with people are mostly empty.

In coronavirus response, the question isn't democracy or authoritarianism - Axios


https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-response-democracy-authoritarianism-7568a6ab-b7c7-4d1d-8949-bac26347c5a4.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top


The coronavirus pandemic is hitting Main Street and triggering mass layoffs around the country - Axios


https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-small-business-restaurant-workers-job-losses-9a6d6ec5-ae03-46d5-ac42-a4739d84394e.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiospm&stream=top

sycasey said:

---

OaktownBear said:

---

Sometimes you have to not let people be effing morons. I am massively disappointed at the public response to a shelter in place order in the Bay Area and I'd bet we are responding better than most. It is clear that some people won't get the clue until they are breathing their last breath alone in a hallway waiting for a ventilator that will never come.

---

So what else do you think needs to happen? What are you seeing that disappoints you?

I am well aware of the Italian situation which is why I haven't complained about the shelter in place order. What else is missing?

---

I'm happy about a lot of things. I'm happy that a lot of tech companies, like my own, recognized the issue long before governments did and took extreme steps to protect their employees early. I'm happy that my employer has gone from voluntary work from home to involuntary work from home. I'm unhappy that employers, including the State of California have been slow to allow work from home and are still in many places making that policy voluntary. I'm unhappy that schools took so long to close.

But as for what I'm unhappy with TODAY, people are not getting the message. Yes, traffic is dramatically reduced. Yes many are working from home. As GB4L is saying, they are half measures. People need to stay in their houses most of the time. That isn't happening. It should be a ghost town out there right now.

I live on a somewhat busy traffic street. Yes traffic is down. As I'm typing this I just did a sample. 6 cars go by in a minute and that is about standard for today. Whatthehell? Yesterday, my wife and I took a walk with the dog to the nearest mailbox. This walk would normally mean seeing about 3 people tops. Just houses. No stores or anything close. Yesterday it required us to pass roughly 30 people in 20 minutes most of whom were oblivious to social distancing. People talking with their neighbors. Tons of kids out on their own running around and of course they do not understand social distancing at all. (One block had about 15 kids running around playing - we were able to go to a different block to avoid) Instead of people interacting with coworkers, they are interacting with neighbors in an unprecedented way. I also think people are misled by the 6 foot rule. If someone with coronavirus goes jogging past, huffing and puffing, and you wait for them to pass and two seconds later go walking through their cropdusting, you aren't safe. The shelter in place order said, yeah it is okay to go out jogging and walking etc., so everyone is doing it. I went on a walk thinking that I would likely see no one and if I did I could stay at least 20 feet from anyone because I live in a normally very low foot traffic area and that is the normal walk for me pre-shelter in place. That wasn't the reality. I had to tell my wife, no, we aren't doing this again. We stay inside unless we absolutely have to go out.

The point I had in posting the Italian video is they were where we are 10 days ago. They had shelter in place and they went out walking around like we are doing. Now they are saying "what the hell was I doing" and telling people not to do that. We have followed Italy almost exactly in how we've progressed with our tactics. I had hoped "shelter in place" meant something and we would break that trend. Not "now I have time to socialize with my neighbors". Basically, people refuse to spend one day inside, let alone a month.

So I think we do need to get to where Italy is now. You don't go out. At all. Period. One person can go to the store for necessities. That is all. This isn't a vacation.

OaktownBear said:

---

So I think we do need to get to where Italy is now. You don't go out. At all. Period. One person can go to the store for necessities. That is all. This isn't a vacation.

---

My 78 year old mother who had tuberculosis as a kid definitely needs to do that, but I refuse to live my life like that. We are not trying to survive a nuclear holocaust. Many of us are going to get sick. It is inevitable. However, for the VAST majority of people getting sick is not a death sentence. Be sensible. Kids playing together in the street is stupid. Going for a walk isn't.

Italy is a nation of 60M people. The numbers of people infected and dying as a result so far are about the same as the rates for getting into a car accident (infection) and dying as a result. Just about all of us have been in a car accident at one point and most of us have been close to someone who died as a result of one. So this is serious business. However, it doesn't make me want to stop (or severely limit) my driving.

GBear4Life said:

---

OaktownBear said:

---

GBear4Life said:

---

sycasey said:

---

GBear4Life said:

---

Of course, this is just the beginning. Best case forecasts see interrupted economic and social lives for 12-18 months. Really sad. I'm wondering why not pull off the band aid -- it will hurt for 2 months -- in order to be done with this

---

I would argue because America is too large and disperse a country for "martial law" to really hold for an extended period. We also have a populace that will naturally rebel against draconian attempts to control them. Not the right solution for us.

---

I'm saying it's the more prudent and effective solution, and it heightens the impact but relegates it to a much shorter time frame.

---

I agree that it would be met with hostility by some considerable number of Americans. But I'm not concerned with feelings right now. First of all I agree with you that more draconian measures should be in place. It is very clear to me that many people have no freaking clue on this. And some of the government messaging well intended as it may be, is not helping. It is very clear that many people are not going to understand until we actually get to the point that our hospitals are overwhelmed. That trend line for Italy and where we fall on it should be burned on people's brains.

I disagree with you on the 45 days. And I disagree with people who seem to think that we could have dealt with this with travel restrictions alone. That was never going to happen. The virus is going to eventually spread. The travel restrictions were a very necessary step. As are the all the steps being taken to slow the spread. However, the only thing those measures do is buy you time to do what needs to be done.

[ol]

We need to create a vaccine

We need to find an ameliorating medicine

We need to be manufacturing ventilators like crazy

We need to be transitioning medical facilities to be capable of ICU treatment.

We need to martial other facilities (military or otherwise) into temporary medical facilities

We need to get a handle on how to deploy medical personnel and move them from non urgent tasks to urgent tasks.

[/ol]
I disagree with the notion that we can wipe out the virus in 45 days. We need to buy time to get all those things up and running as much as possible.

Regarding some of the reporting it is obvious that the most clicks is going to go to the stories that have the most dire predictions. That doesn't exactly help. I don't believe we have to shut down the economy for over a year. However, some measures may go beyond a year. Some may be permanent. Shaking hands is stupid. That can go, permanently. Many industries have been slow to adopt telecommuting practices, often because of a false notion that productivity will drop because people will sit around in their bunny slippers (productivity goes up). I'd expect the rate of telecommuting to go up. That might be something that companies adopt for a year. And, frankly, once they see the cost savings, that might be permanent. This will actually provide some benefits to the economy. Some industries will do better. People will be able to have more flexibility in where they live, spreading the wealth geographically. My guess is that vulnerable populations will be told to self quarantine until they can get vaccinated.

Some of these reports are purposefully answering every question in the worst possible scenario. Assume there will be no seasonality to the virus. Assume that those that get it will have little to no immunity to reinfection (unlikely). Governments and health organizations need to be aware of this and be prepared. But that should not lead all of us to the conclusion that everything is going to be hell for the next million years. It did peak and come under control in China. It is doubtful that is only due to social restrictions. There are some early signs that the rate of increase of new cases in Italy is slowing. That doesn't mean it is over. But maybe the most acute phase is over. Maybe. What we need to do is watch Wuhan. Watch Italy. But for now, get through the acute phase. I fear that freaking people out about year long quarantines and economic catastrophe leads people to 1. Be less likely to be willing to do what they need to do for the next several weeks; and 2. Get to the "what the hell, they are going to die anyway, why let it impact the economy" phase.

---

If we keep playing defensive mode, we are looking at a partially shut down society like we are now for 12-18 months. The economy is in part shut down already. And its very segmented. It is slowing down the inevitable for a narrow purpose.

How would the virus get here if we banned all international flight arrivals (and by sea)? The time to get Draconian was over two months ago. But better now than never.

What draconian measures do you support?

---

By the time you realize you need to ban all international flights, the virus is already here. The cat is out of the bag by the time the doctors recognize the new strain. And then, as I said elsewhere, there are new strains on a regular basis and none of them in literally 102 years would have justified banning all international travel at the point that you are saying we should have done it. So if that is what you want to do THIS time because it would have been better THIS time, you need to realize you would have taken that draconian measure about 20 to 30 times in the last 100 years when it wasn't necessary.

Which is not to say I don't support banning travel. I absolutely do. But that ban is going to slow the spread. Not stop it. Yes, it is much better to have 10 origin cases instead of 1000. But given that those cases are going to be out spreading the virus for weeks before you know they are there, you are ultimately going to get to 1000 and beyond. The point is that every day you slow the virus down is another day you have to prepare, to get more resources, to maybe catch a break in the summer, to find a treatment, to learn from others, to develop and produce a vaccine.

I would shut down all travel, domestic and international. I would require serious shelter in place as they are at in Italy NOW, not two weeks ago. I would stop trying to preserve the economy because you are dooming it to get hit harder later. But I would also realize that slowing the spread is only part of the issue. We have to buy ourselves time, but we are buying ourselves time so that we can deal with the issue. It will not end the virus by itself.

dimitrig said:

---

OaktownBear said:

---

So I think we do need to get to where Italy is now. You don't go out. At all. Period. One person can go to the store for necessities. That is all. This isn't a vacation.

---

My 78 year old mother who had tuberculosis as a kid definitely needs to do that, but I refuse to live my life like that. We are not trying to survive a nuclear holocaust. Many of us are going to get sick. It is inevitable. However, for the VAST majority of people getting sick is not a death sentence. Be sensible. Kids playing together in the street is stupid. Going for a walk isn't.

Italy is a nation of 60M people. The numbers of people infected and dying as a result so far are about the same as the rates for getting into a car accident (infection) and dying as a result. Just about all of us have been in a car accident at one point and most of us have been close to someone who died as a result of one. So this is serious business. However, it doesn't make me want to stop (or severely limit) my driving.

---

Fine. I'm not afraid to say it. You are a selfish, moronic, ass. And it is exactly because of people like you that the government needs to take more draconian measures to stop you from being a selfish moronic ass and hurting the rest of us, including your 78 year old mother.

Italy has 9 deaths by car accident per day. They had 475 coronavirus deaths in the last 24 hours. And it was over 300 the day before and the day before. You effing moron. You are freezing a point in time that in several weeks time roughly the same number of people died of coronavirus as die in a year of car accidents. Do you think coronavirus is ending in Italy tomorrow? The number of deaths is going up by about a third everyday. the number of deaths by car accident is roughly the same rate per day.

Oh, and Eff you. I remember very few posters based on petty disagreements. Complete and utter moral failing is not something you forget. Hopefully the rest of us that give a damned and actually sacrifice a little save you and especially your mother.

OaktownBear said:

---

dimitrig said:

---

OaktownBear said:

---

So I think we do need to get to where Italy is now. You don't go out. At all. Period. One person can go to the store for necessities. That is all. This isn't a vacation.

---

My 78 year old mother who had tuberculosis as a kid definitely needs to do that, but I refuse to live my life like that. We are not trying to survive a nuclear holocaust. Many of us are going to get sick. It is inevitable. However, for the VAST majority of people getting sick is not a death sentence. Be sensible. Kids playing together in the street is stupid. Going for a walk isn't.

Italy is a nation of 60M people. The numbers of people infected and dying as a result so far are about the same as the rates for getting into a car accident (infection) and dying as a result. Just about all of us have been in a car accident at one point and most of us have been close to someone who died as a result of one. So this is serious business. However, it doesn't make me want to stop (or severely limit) my driving.

---

Fine. I'm not afraid to say it. You are a selfish, moronic, ass. And it is exactly because of people like you that the government needs to take more draconian measures to stop you from being a selfish moronic ass and hurting the rest of us, including your 78 year old mother.

Italy has 9 deaths by car accident per day. They had 475 coronavirus deaths in the last 24 hours. And it was over 300 the day before and the day before. You effing moron. You are freezing a point in time that in several weeks time roughly the same number of people died of coronavirus as die in a year of car accidents. Do you think coronavirus is ending in Italy tomorrow? The number of deaths is going up by about a third everyday. the number of deaths by car accident is roughly the same rate per day.

Oh, and Eff you. I remember very few posters based on petty disagreements. Complete and utter moral failing is not something you forget. Hopefully the rest of us that give a damned and actually sacrifice a little save you and especially your mother.

---

I am sorry, but going out for a walk does not justify this response and is not a moral failing. I think you read whatever you wanted to read and not what I said. If you think you are going to get sick (or get someone else sick) by walking around outside all by yourself then I feel sorry for you. In fact, I think it was you who said that you went for a walk with your wife. What a selfish, moronic thing to do!

dimitrig said:

---

OaktownBear said:

---

dimitrig said:

---

OaktownBear said:

---

So I think we do need to get to where Italy is now. You don't go out. At all. Period. One person can go to the store for necessities. That is all. This isn't a vacation.

---

My 78 year old mother who had tuberculosis as a kid definitely needs to do that, but I refuse to live my life like that. We are not trying to survive a nuclear holocaust. Many of us are going to get sick. It is inevitable. However, for the VAST majority of people getting sick is not a death sentence. Be sensible. Kids playing together in the street is stupid. Going for a walk isn't.

Italy is a nation of 60M people. The numbers of people infected and dying as a result so far are about the same as the rates for getting into a car accident (infection) and dying as a result. Just about all of us have been in a car accident at one point and most of us have been close to someone who died as a result of one. So this is serious business. However, it doesn't make me want to stop (or severely limit) my driving.

---

Fine. I'm not afraid to say it. You are a selfish, moronic, ass. And it is exactly because of people like you that the government needs to take more draconian measures to stop you from being a selfish moronic ass and hurting the rest of us, including your 78 year old mother.

Italy has 9 deaths by car accident per day. They had 475 coronavirus deaths in the last 24 hours. And it was over 300 the day before and the day before. You effing moron. You are freezing a point in time that in several weeks time roughly the same number of people died of coronavirus as die in a year of car accidents. Do you think coronavirus is ending in Italy tomorrow? The number of deaths is going up by about a third everyday. the number of deaths by car accident is roughly the same rate per day.

Oh, and Eff you. I remember very few posters based on petty disagreements. Complete and utter moral failing is not something you forget. Hopefully the rest of us that give a damned and actually sacrifice a little save you and especially your mother.

---

I am sorry, but going out for a walk does not justify this response and is not a moral failing. I think you read whatever you wanted to read and not what I said. If you think you are going to get sick (or get someone else sick) by walking around outside all by yourself then I feel sorry for you. In fact, I think it was you who said that you went for a walk with your wife. What a selfish, moronic thing to do!

---

Says the guy who draws equivalence between 9 deaths a day and 475 to minimize the issue because he doesn't want his precious first world lifestyle inconvenienced.

OaktownBear said:

---

dimitrig said:

---

OaktownBear said:

---

So I think we do need to get to where Italy is now. You don't go out. At all. Period. One person can go to the store for necessities. That is all. This isn't a vacation.

---

My 78 year old mother who had tuberculosis as a kid definitely needs to do that, but I refuse to live my life like that. We are not trying to survive a nuclear holocaust. Many of us are going to get sick. It is inevitable. However, for the VAST majority of people getting sick is not a death sentence. Be sensible. Kids playing together in the street is stupid. Going for a walk isn't.

Italy is a nation of 60M people. The numbers of people infected and dying as a result so far are about the same as the rates for getting into a car accident (infection) and dying as a result. Just about all of us have been in a car accident at one point and most of us have been close to someone who died as a result of one. So this is serious business. However, it doesn't make me want to stop (or severely limit) my driving.

---

Fine. I'm not afraid to say it. You are a selfish, moronic, ass. And it is exactly because of people like you that the government needs to take more draconian measures to stop you from being a selfish moronic ass and hurting the rest of us, including your 78 year old mother.

...

---

No need to go ballistic here.

The point you're missing here dimitrig is that this major inconvenience that we have to go through is only temporary. The next 2-4 months is defcon 5, after that for the next 3-6 months it will go down a bit, then slowly taper back to normal.

In terms of social life, there is a silver lining, families together, less work, no sports on TV so more time with your loved ones under the same roof.

I have a weekly gathering every Friday night with about 4-6 close friends, I will suggest we sit out the next 3-4 weeks and try hanging out online, then maybe resuming that gathering in May, in an outdoor setting.

I have had the habit of buying way more books than I can read, maybe I will put a dent on my library, and work on some music projects.

3 months of clampdown is not the end of the world, it might end up being a once in a lifetime interesting social experience, and of course it will also save tens (if not hundreds) of thousands of lives.

3 months of clampdown will have irreparable effects on our economy. Great Depression era stuff. People have so little wealth to fall back on and production is grinding to a halt. We need to spend all our energy in the next few weeks getting the military to build hospitals and manufacturers to make ventilators to even have a hope of surviving with some semblance of our economy.

OaktownBear said:

---

Says the guy who draws equivalence between 9 deaths a day and 475 to minimize the issue because he doesn't want his precious first world lifestyle inconvenienced.

---

I don't know where you draw these conclusions about me not wanting my "precious first world lifestyle inconvenienced." You made that part up to fit your narrative. All I was saying is that I refuse to live my life locked inside of my house without going anywhere. I will take walks, I will take drives, and I will go about my life but with an abundance of caution. I never said: "I am going to continue on with life as usual." I just think going into complete isolation is overkill. If everyone did that there would not be any doctors or nurses to treat the sick!

I mentioned the statistics because I want to draw a parallel (at least so far) with something that we all have a lot more experience with. The car accident statistics are for a single year, true, but when I said "We all know someone who has been in or died in an accident" the implication there wasn't "over one year" but over our entire lifespans. So probably in the end the comparison will be about correct. 9 people per day die in car accidents in Italy but I am about 50 so multiply that by 50 and you get your 450 number - and that is if the rate actually stays that high for the entire year. Of course, if the virus continues on for 2, 5, 10, 50 years or the mortality rate gets worse (or better) then the comparison does not hold water but that's not really the point I am making.

The point I was making is that this is very serious. People get into car accidents. People die in car accidents. It's no joke. It happens all the time. However, the scale of the pandemic is about the same so far. There is an almost certainty that we will all get the virus unless something (isolation, vaccine) changes just as we have almost all been in car accidents. The chance of dying is also about the same. That's a lot lower. However, we do all have close friends and loved ones who have died in car accidents so even though it is a lot lower it is enough to see how it will impact lives. It is not just a boogeyman. People you know WILL die from it.

Is the mortality rate high? I dunno. You decide for yourself. High is relative. It was just a comparison I made to frame the statistics into numbers people might better understand - high enough that you will be impacted by it in some way but not so high that you will turn into zombies if you take a walk to the mailbox with your wife. The media is portraying this like a zombie apocalypse because they love that sort of journalism. Tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands will die. True. Is that a lot? Well, again, you decide.

This can't hurt. Glad Facebook is doing this.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Coronavirus in New York: Man tests positive, describes early stages


https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/03/19/new-york-doctor-tests-positive-coronavirus-reports-different-symptoms/2873342001/

going4roses said:

---

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

---

^^^ yeah-yeah, we know. and keep it open on the desktop all day and all night; cybears aswell

Doctor Horrible's Singalong Blog" last words: Don't worry, Captain Hammer will save us

sycasey said:

---

dimitrig said:

---

OaktownBear said:

---

Says the guy who draws equivalence between 9 deaths a day and 475 to minimize the issue because he doesn't want his precious first world lifestyle inconvenienced.

---

---

The issue is not just the numbers of dead. It's the volume happening all at once that will overwhelm our hospitals and cause additional unnecessary death if not mitigated.

---

True, but that is an entirely different topic.

I read there is only 1 hospital bed per 1000 Americans. It doesn't take much to overwhelm the hospitals. I think this is an area where government can help in times of crisis.

The area other they can help is in actually getting people tested! We wouldn't all need to "shelter in place" if they could start testing and isolating the sick instead of letting them wander the streets unaware. I guarantee those tests are going to cost a WHOLE LOT less than any other solution including shelter-in-place. Instead of sending $1000 to each American why don't they send us each a test kit, a gallon of hand sanitizer, and a few rolls of toilet paper?

dimitrig said:

---

sycasey said:

---

dimitrig said:

---

OaktownBear said:

---

Says the guy who draws equivalence between 9 deaths a day and 475 to minimize the issue because he doesn't want his precious first world lifestyle inconvenienced.

---

---

The issue is not just the numbers of dead. It's the volume happening all at once that will overwhelm our hospitals and cause additional unnecessary death if not mitigated.

---

True, but that is an entirely different topic.

I read there is only 1 hospital bed per 1000 Americans. It doesn't take much to overwhelm the hospitals. I think this is an area where government can help in times of crisis.

The area other they can help is in actually getting people tested! We wouldn't all need to "shelter in place" if they could start testing and isolating the sick instead of letting them wander the streets unaware. I guarantee those tests are going to cost a WHOLE LOT less than any other solution including shelter-in-place. Instead of sending $1000 to each American why don't they send us each a test kit, a gallon of hand sanitizer, and a few rolls of toilet paper?

---

I agree that we need much more testing and quarantining to take place.

However, given that the country's medical infrastructure is clearly not ready for such an effort, social distancing measures are necessary to prevent hospital overcrowding. We can do both things at once.

Gates' take in 2015 was pretty amazing. The Spanish flu would have wiped out so many more if it were here today due to the capacity and speed of which people can be mobile, something that wasn't the case 100 years ago. In other words, Yellow Fever is the 21st century Spanish Flu

On the other hand, they didn't know as much about transmission mechanisms back then, hygiene measures and social distancing. The contagion spread slower, but it did make its way through the population once in got a foothold.

This being said, vs 1919, yes we do have more urbanized societies today,more travel and interdependent globalized economies, whereas before regions and countries were more self-sufficient.

Good thread here. I think this is the most relevant part.

Basically, the big problem with COVID-19 is that too many people are walking around without knowing they have it, which spreads the contagion much faster than other diseases where symptoms are sure to appear early. Basically, you need massive testing efforts to locate the asymptomatic cases so they can be quarantined. The US government has been way too slow to get this going (and it seems like they are the only entity with the resources to do so), but it will have to happen if we don't want to be stuck with home lockdowns for months on end.

sycasey said:

---

Good thread here. I think this is the most relevant part.

Basically, the big problem with COVID-19 is that too many people are walking around without knowing they have it, which spreads the contagion much faster than other diseases where symptoms are sure to appear early. Basically, you need massive testing efforts to locate the asymptomatic cases so they can be quarantined. The US government has been way too slow to get this going (and it seems like they are the only entity with the resources to do so), but it will have to happen if we don't want to be stuck with home lockdowns for months on end.

---

The whole point of the shelter in place and all precautions is to account for asymptomatic individuals.

Surely if 100 people are confirmed to have it, 1,000 people or more actually have it. You can't expect 350M asymptomatic to get tested. What do you do? You tell people to behave as if they are sick.

This takes cooperation from EVERYBODY, something I"m skeptical of.