bearister said:

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LudwigsFountain said:

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Our mid-30's daughter has arthritis and takes hydroxychloroquine (sp??), one of the drugs being mentioned has a possible coronavirus remedy. CVS called her yesterday and told her they're sending her a 90 day supply to ensure she has the drug should it become scarce.

I guess at least CVS is taking its potential use seriously.

Feelings about my daughter aside, I wonder if steering the drug to arthritis sufferers makes sense if the drug does prove effective. Maybe it does, as the treatment for arthritis involves weakening the immune system, making that population more vulnerable.

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OaktownBear said:

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LudwigsFountain said:

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Our mid-30's daughter has arthritis and takes hydroxychloroquine (sp??), one of the drugs being mentioned has a possible coronavirus remedy. CVS called her yesterday and told her they're sending her a 90 day supply to ensure she has the drug should it become scarce.

I guess at least CVS is taking its potential use seriously.

Feelings about my daughter aside, I wonder if steering the drug to arthritis sufferers makes sense if the drug does prove effective. Maybe it does, as the treatment for arthritis involves weakening the immune system, making that population more vulnerable.

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I don't think that is an indication that CVS is taking its potential use seriously. I think it is an indication that CVS recognizes that it is already being hoarded whether it turns out to be an effective treatment for covid or not.

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OaktownBear said:

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The idea that we can have non "vulnerable" populations go back to their normal lives and not get crushed is plain wrong. I fear for the parts of the country whose governors are not taking the lead. For those governors that are, I'd say they better buy up all the medical supplies like crazy before the other states are swamped. And of course there is a problem that states are not allowed to restrict travel in and out, so even those that do the right thing can't protect themselves fully without federal action.

It appears that the current administration has done a political calculus: If I require social distancing there is a 100% chance the economy will tank and I will take the heat. If I don't, there is a theoretical chance that the disease will stop spreading by some form of magic and I'll be okay. Go with the latter.

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Quote:

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The US and South Korea announced their first cases of the coronavirus on the same day: January 20. More than six weeks later, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has tested around 1,500 people for the virus. South Korea, meanwhile, has tested about 140,000.

The nation is capable of conducting as many as 10,000 tests per day and has built drive-thru testing clinics that can detect coronavirus cases in just 10 minutes. Officials say the clinics can reduce testing time by a third.

This quick response has allowed South Korea to detect more than 6,000 coronavirus patients, around 35 of whom have died. That means the country's death rate is around 0.6%.

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Unit2Sucks said:

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OaktownBear said:

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LudwigsFountain said:

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Our mid-30's daughter has arthritis and takes hydroxychloroquine (sp??), one of the drugs being mentioned has a possible coronavirus remedy. CVS called her yesterday and told her they're sending her a 90 day supply to ensure she has the drug should it become scarce.

I guess at least CVS is taking its potential use seriously.

Feelings about my daughter aside, I wonder if steering the drug to arthritis sufferers makes sense if the drug does prove effective. Maybe it does, as the treatment for arthritis involves weakening the immune system, making that population more vulnerable.

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I don't think that is an indication that CVS is taking its potential use seriously. I think it is an indication that CVS recognizes that it is already being hoarded whether it turns out to be an effective treatment for covid or not.

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For what it's worth, there is a lot more evidence that it works than just the small study people have been talking about. This treatment has been widely used in China since January and a number of other countries as well. I think at this point the biggest concern is that the treatment is dangerous for a number of people who have certain conditions and/or other medications and that there is no clinically determined dosing and duration.

Essentially it's a bit of the wild west but a lot of people across the world have been working with this treatment to positive overall effect. Given that we have a different standard of care in the US, it's unclear what it would take to actually roll the treatment out en masse here. The fact that people are hoarding it is certainly disappointing, but it should be relatively easy to produce cheaply in large quantities if it becomes approved for broader use. At this point, given that we don't appear to be able to massively increase the number of ventilators and hospital beds we have, it's the most promising candidate to help us through this crisis.

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Cal88 said:

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OaktownBear said:

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A lower level social isolation plateau can be attained while keeping the epidemic under control. This is what is happening now in most of China, in S. Korea and Japan. The key is having a very efficient and extensive testing and tracking program with strict isolation and quarantine for those who are in contact with known/suspected cases and those testing positive, respectively. This should be implemented after a 3-5 week lockdown, sometime in April, when the supply of test kits and masks comes in.

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Cal88 said:

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OaktownBear said:

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The idea that we can have non "vulnerable" populations go back to their normal lives and not get crushed is plain wrong. I fear for the parts of the country whose governors are not taking the lead. For those governors that are, I'd say they better buy up all the medical supplies like crazy before the other states are swamped. And of course there is a problem that states are not allowed to restrict travel in and out, so even those that do the right thing can't protect themselves fully without federal action.

It appears that the current administration has done a political calculus: If I require social distancing there is a 100% chance the economy will tank and I will take the heat. If I don't, there is a theoretical chance that the disease will stop spreading by some form of magic and I'll be okay. Go with the latter.

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A lower level social isolation plateau can be attained while keeping the epidemic under control. This is what is happening now in most of China, in S. Korea and Japan. The key is having a very efficient and extensive testing and tracking program with strict isolation and quarantine for those who are in contact with known/suspected cases and those testing positive, respectively. This should be implemented after a 3-5 week lockdown, sometime in April, when the supply of test kits and masks comes in.

Not only is this possible to implement, but that is the path that is safest for society as a whole, because an extended lockdown also carries a severe health and mortality cost. The severe economic hardship from a very long lockdown will put for tens (hundreds?) of millions in a more precarious health situation. If for example you have a heart condition and face eviction or see your business collapsing, you will be much more likely to have a heart attack, at an order of magnitude similar or higher than the covid19 risk. As the covid19 fatality rates are being revised downwards at or below 1% with more data coming in, the health risks associated with an aggressive, extended, over a month long lockdown, loom larger.

Quote:

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The US and South Korea announced their first cases of the coronavirus on the same day: January 20. More than six weeks later, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has tested around 1,500 people for the virus. South Korea, meanwhile, has tested about 140,000.

The nation is capable of conducting as many as 10,000 tests per day and has built drive-thru testing clinics that can detect coronavirus cases in just 10 minutes. Officials say the clinics can reduce testing time by a third.

This quick response has allowed South Korea to detect more than 6,000 coronavirus patients, around 35 of whom have died. That means the country's death rate is around 0.6%.

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https://www.businessinsider.com/south-korea-coronavirus-testing-death-rate-2020-3

You can still maintain higher safeguards for the most vulnerable population, like retirement homes, while starting to relax a lot of the workplace down to a prudent but not extremely draconian plateau. Like home games at Cal with 10,000-15,000 well-spaced young fans/students and middle-aged fans without preconditions.

This can and should be done, it's the best course of action on all levels.

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Unit2Sucks said:

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Cal88 said:

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OaktownBear said:

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A lower level social isolation plateau can be attained while keeping the epidemic under control. This is what is happening now in most of China, in S. Korea and Japan. The key is having a very efficient and extensive testing and tracking program with strict isolation and quarantine for those who are in contact with known/suspected cases and those testing positive, respectively. This should be implemented after a 3-5 week lockdown, sometime in April, when the supply of test kits and masks comes in.

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Serious question - do you believe the USA is capable of doing this? I don't know if we have the infrastructure (and I don't mean physical infrastructure, but government and societal as well) to implement this on a nationwide basis. This isn't the type of problem you can just throw money at - it will require extensive commitment, discipline, and national strategic implementation. Nothing like this has ever been done at scale in recent memory.

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Cal88 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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Cal88 said:

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OaktownBear said:

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...

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A lower level social isolation plateau can be attained while keeping the epidemic under control. This is what is happening now in most of China, in S. Korea and Japan. The key is having a very efficient and extensive testing and tracking program with strict isolation and quarantine for those who are in contact with known/suspected cases and those testing positive, respectively. This should be implemented after a 3-5 week lockdown, sometime in April, when the supply of test kits and masks comes in.

---

Serious question - do you believe the USA is capable of doing this? I don't know if we have the infrastructure (and I don't mean physical infrastructure, but government and societal as well) to implement this on a nationwide basis. This isn't the type of problem you can just throw money at - it will require extensive commitment, discipline, and national strategic implementation. Nothing like this has ever been done at scale in recent memory.

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Yes we can! We have a month to implement such a plan. I presume the tests will be available by the hundreds of thousands by then, that is the main bottleneck at this point.

The discipline will be there, it's already hitting home for most, and by late April, most Americans will have known someone who has died or has had severe respiratory cases, that number will be in the neighborhood of 25,000 by then.

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bearister said:

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Finally an article touching on a topic I have been talking about for awhile: the possibility that many in the Bay Area have had a mild form of the virus and figured they just had a cold. Experts say the cruise ship passenger that died in Placer County contracted it in the community in Late January or early February. This topic is not helpful because it would alleviate the fear to shelter in place....and that fear is helping keep our community safe.

Have I already had coronavirus? How would I know and what should I do?


https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/23/have-i-already-had-covid19-coronavirus?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

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dimitrig said:

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bearister said:

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Finally an article touching on a topic I have been talking about for awhile: the possibility that many in the Bay Area have had a mild form of the virus and figured they just had a cold. Experts say the cruise ship passenger that died in Placer County contracted it in the community in Late January or early February. This topic is not helpful because it would alleviate the fear to shelter in place....and that fear is helping keep our community safe.

Have I already had coronavirus? How would I know and what should I do?


https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/23/have-i-already-had-covid19-coronavirus?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

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My nephew (early 20s) goes to a junior college in LA where is he exposed to a lot of different people from a lot of different cultures on a daily basis. He developed a mild fever and cough back in February that wouldn't go away. He says that even now he still coughs sometimes. He went to the doctor after a couple days of low-grade fever and they sent him home. His doctor now says that he suspects he was infected with COVID-19. Luckily his mom (who he lives with) was away on business travel for 2 weeks during that time. He will get tested once a test is developed because he wants to know.

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bearister said:

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Finally an article touching on a topic I have been talking about for awhile: the possibility that many in the Bay Area have had a mild form of the virus and figured they just had a cold. Experts say the cruise ship passenger that died in Placer County contracted it in the community in Late January or early February. This topic is not helpful because it would alleviate the fear to shelter in place....and that fear is helping keep our community safe.

Have I already had coronavirus? How would I know and what should I do?


https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/23/have-i-already-had-covid19-coronavirus?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

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OaktownBear said:

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Cal88 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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Cal88 said:

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OaktownBear said:

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...

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A lower level social isolation plateau can be attained while keeping the epidemic under control. This is what is happening now in most of China, in S. Korea and Japan. The key is having a very efficient and extensive testing and tracking program with strict isolation and quarantine for those who are in contact with known/suspected cases and those testing positive, respectively. This should be implemented after a 3-5 week lockdown, sometime in April, when the supply of test kits and masks comes in.

---

Serious question - do you believe the USA is capable of doing this? I don't know if we have the infrastructure (and I don't mean physical infrastructure, but government and societal as well) to implement this on a nationwide basis. This isn't the type of problem you can just throw money at - it will require extensive commitment, discipline, and national strategic implementation. Nothing like this has ever been done at scale in recent memory.

---

Yes we can! We have a month to implement such a plan. I presume the tests will be available by the hundreds of thousands by then, that is the main bottleneck at this point.

The discipline will be there, it's already hitting home for most, and by late April, most Americans will have known someone who has died or has had severe respiratory cases, that number will be in the neighborhood of 25,000 by then.

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88 - my understanding is that the bottleneck is not just the tests but the masks that health professionals need to safely administer the tests. I know a doctor whose family is reaching out to friends who may have purchased masks during the forest fires because they are already running out in California and we haven't even seen the major increases in need yet.

I also am not convinced that it is hitting home for most Americans. It feels like half the states don't think it's their problem and they won't until they start seeing 100's of cases in their communities.

Next question - we certainly are capable. Are we actually doing it though?

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Big C said:

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It absolutely boggles the mind that it will be the end of March in about a week and hospitals in the United States of America still won't have enough masks. Effing MASKS for God's sake!

Haven't these people ever heard of Amazon Prime?!?

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Cal88 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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Cal88 said:

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OaktownBear said:

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...

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A lower level social isolation plateau can be attained while keeping the epidemic under control. This is what is happening now in most of China, in S. Korea and Japan. The key is having a very efficient and extensive testing and tracking program with strict isolation and quarantine for those who are in contact with known/suspected cases and those testing positive, respectively. This should be implemented after a 3-5 week lockdown, sometime in April, when the supply of test kits and masks comes in.

---

Serious question - do you believe the USA is capable of doing this? I don't know if we have the infrastructure (and I don't mean physical infrastructure, but government and societal as well) to implement this on a nationwide basis. This isn't the type of problem you can just throw money at - it will require extensive commitment, discipline, and national strategic implementation. Nothing like this has ever been done at scale in recent memory.

---

Yes we can! We have a month to implement such a plan. I presume the tests will be available by the hundreds of thousands by then, that is the main bottleneck at this point.

The discipline will be there, it's already hitting home for most, and by late April, most Americans will have known someone who has died or has had severe respiratory cases, that number will be in the neighborhood of 25,000 by then.

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Big C said:

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OaktownBear said:

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Cal88 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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Cal88 said:

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OaktownBear said:

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...

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A lower level social isolation plateau can be attained while keeping the epidemic under control. This is what is happening now in most of China, in S. Korea and Japan. The key is having a very efficient and extensive testing and tracking program with strict isolation and quarantine for those who are in contact with known/suspected cases and those testing positive, respectively. This should be implemented after a 3-5 week lockdown, sometime in April, when the supply of test kits and masks comes in.

---

Serious question - do you believe the USA is capable of doing this? I don't know if we have the infrastructure (and I don't mean physical infrastructure, but government and societal as well) to implement this on a nationwide basis. This isn't the type of problem you can just throw money at - it will require extensive commitment, discipline, and national strategic implementation. Nothing like this has ever been done at scale in recent memory.

---

Yes we can! We have a month to implement such a plan. I presume the tests will be available by the hundreds of thousands by then, that is the main bottleneck at this point.

The discipline will be there, it's already hitting home for most, and by late April, most Americans will have known someone who has died or has had severe respiratory cases, that number will be in the neighborhood of 25,000 by then.

---

88 - my understanding is that the bottleneck is not just the tests but the masks that health professionals need to safely administer the tests. I know a doctor whose family is reaching out to friends who may have purchased masks during the forest fires because they are already running out in California and we haven't even seen the major increases in need yet.

I also am not convinced that it is hitting home for most Americans. It feels like half the states don't think it's their problem and they won't until they start seeing 100's of cases in their communities.

Next question - we certainly are capable. Are we actually doing it though?

---

It absolutely boggles the mind that it will be the end of March in about a week and hospitals in the United States of America still won't have enough masks. Effing MASKS for God's sake!

Haven't these people ever heard of Amazon Prime?!?

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Unit2Sucks said:

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I don't buy this idea that COVID has been distributed widely in our community for months and no one knew about it. That would require either (A) the asymptomatic or mild symptomatic rate is much higher than previously reported or (B) the virus that was here earlier was much weaker than the strain currently circulating here. Some people at Oxford are pushing a similar theory (that half the UK has already had it) but why would it be the case that all of the sudden our healthcare system is being overwhelmed whereas it wasn't previously?

Also, everyone talking about their prior colds/flus should remember that this has been a pretty bad year for colds and flus. 90% of COVID tests are still coming back negative, and that's taking into account the fact that the tests are so artificially limited to only address people who seem like they have COVID (and test negative for other things).

My kid had a strange random cough / sore throat thing in late January with strep-like symptoms (white throat, etc.). We took U2s Jr to urgent care and they said "WOAH, looks like strep" but tested negative for strep. I doubt it was COVID but I don't doubt it was one of the other screwy things that are still going around.

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OaktownBear said:

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sycasey said:

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bearister said:

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Comparing to San Francisco would be an interesting study too. SF is not as dense as NYC, but it's the closest example in the USA. Seems like the epidemic is more under control in SF (at least for now), possibly because the Bay Area instituted stronger controls more quickly?

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People keep looking at different hotspots and using traits to explain why they are hit hard. For instance, they explain North Italy because they have an older population. Problem being Japan has an older population. New York has high density. Japan and S. Korea have much higher.

The problem is that there are a lot of factors that go into it, and who gets hit is unpredictable. Many of the risk factors are a matter of degree. When things are reported like this it leads people and places who do not share that trait to think they are safe.

Population density increases the transmission of any communicable disease. Last I checked, people get the flu everywhere. Older people tend to get sicker. But while they have a very high mortality rate with coronavirus, working age populations still have a much higher mortality rate and a much higher hospitalization rate than the flu and will overwhelm our medical system. The only age group that is pretty unscathed is under 19. People with certain pre-existing conditions have a higher rate of complications, but perfectly healthy people have a significantly higher rate than the flu as well.

The idea that we can have non "vulnerable" populations go back to their normal lives and not get crushed is plain wrong. I fear for the parts of the country whose governors are not taking the lead. For those governors that are, I'd say they better buy up all the medical supplies like crazy before the other states are swamped. And of course there is a problem that states are not allowed to restrict travel in and out, so even those that do the right thing can't protect themselves fully without federal action.

It appears that the current administration has done a political calculus: If I require social distancing there is a 100% chance the economy will tank and I will take the heat. If I don't, there is a theoretical chance that the disease will stop spreading by some form of magic and I'll be okay. Go with the latter.

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Anarchistbear said:

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Millions of people streamed out of Wuhan right before Chinese New Years to all parts of the country. I don't understand why all of China was not more debilitated. Sure there were outbreaks in Shanghai and Beijing but the secondary outbreaks were less severe. It could be the government measures or perhaps the virus mutates when hosts are less opportunistic

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Anarchistbear said:

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Millions of people streamed out of Wuhan right before Chinese New Years to all parts of the country. I don't understand why all of China was not more debilitated. Sure there were outbreaks in Shanghai and Beijing but the secondary outbreaks were less severe. It could be the government measures or perhaps the virus mutates when hosts are less opportunistic

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dimitrig said:

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Anarchistbear said:

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Millions of people streamed out of Wuhan right before Chinese New Years to all parts of the country. I don't understand why all of China was not more debilitated. Sure there were outbreaks in Shanghai and Beijing but the secondary outbreaks were less severe. It could be the government measures or perhaps the virus mutates when hosts are less opportunistic

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The Chinese cannot be trusted. We have no idea what happened over there.

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OaktownBear said:

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dimitrig said:

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Anarchistbear said:

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Millions of people streamed out of Wuhan right before Chinese New Years to all parts of the country. I don't understand why all of China was not more debilitated. Sure there were outbreaks in Shanghai and Beijing but the secondary outbreaks were less severe. It could be the government measures or perhaps the virus mutates when hosts are less opportunistic

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The Chinese cannot be trusted. We have no idea what happened over there.

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You are right they cannot be trusted to report accurate data, but they can't hide major virus outbreaks. They can fudge the numbers, but if there was a second Wuhan, we'd know.

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