I find dividing the deaths by the cases (which are probably exponentially higher because of lack of testing) to be very confusing because the resulting percentage number (a crude death % calculation) is relatively low.

Where am I missing the boat here? If I am not missing the boat, then I assume it is an analysis that needs to be suppressed in order to keep people resolute in the shelter in place efforts.

For example currently 130,000 confirmed cases in US and 2300 deaths (figures rounded) = a 0.017 current death rate. I need straightening out by a stat guy.*


*Negative thought of the day: Who needs nukes anymore? All you need is a couple of sick guys incoming on a plane or a cruise ship, especially if you have a culture that views the potential of your own citizenry dying in the blowback as acceptable collateral damage.

bearister said:

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I find dividing the deaths by the cases (which are probably exponentially higher because of lack of testing) to be very confusing because the resulting percentage number (a crude death % calculation) is relatively low.

Where am I missing the boat here? If I am not missing the boat, then I assume it is an analysis that needs to be suppressed in order to keep people resolute in the shelter in place efforts.

For example currently 130,000 confirmed cases in US and 2300 deaths (figures rounded) = a 0.017 current death rate. I need straightening out by a stat guy.

---

Not a stat guy but 1.7% is in the expected range, no?

Also: taking a "current snapshot in time" of the two figures (confirmed cases and deaths) is misleading because it has a time bias to it. It could be weeks between the time a person is diagnosed and the time the person dies. So, for example, it might be true that the 2,300 deaths really came out of 46,000 confirmed cases, a 5% death rate, but in the last two weeks those 46,000 cases grew to 130,000.

Arguing the other direction: the number of confirmed cases seems to be a meaningless stat. There appear to be vast numbers of people who have contracted it and recovered (or died) without ever being diagnosed. That means the denominator of your death % calc is not very meaningful, either.

Finally: the overall % death calc is not very meaningful because the percentages among the elderly and infirm are much higher.

bearister said:

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I find dividing the deaths by the cases (which are probably exponentially higher because of lack of testing) to be very confusing because the resulting percentage number (a crude death % calculation) is relatively low.

Where am I missing the boat here? If I am not missing the boat, then I assume it is an analysis that needs to be suppressed in order to keep people resolute in the shelter in place efforts.

For example currently 130,000 confirmed cases in US and 2300 deaths (figures rounded) = a 0.017 current death rate. I need straightening out by a stat guy.

---

It's a simplistic view of death rate. We don't know the real number of people who have the virus and the case number represents people at all stages of progression of the illness. Probably need something like deaths/(recovered+deaths).

Also, a low percentage of a large number can still be a large number. At 2300 deaths its nearing the number of deaths on 9/11. If 20% of the US population (330 million) gets infected with a 1% death rate, that would be 660,000 deaths more than any US war.

But, as our compassionate friends on the right keep telling us: "People die every day." So what's a few 100,000 more?

Careful now, this is the apolitical thread. Best not awaken the beast.

okaydo said:

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Christ. Reading the comments from there. How can there be so many *******s in this country?

GoOskie said:

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okaydo said:

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Christ. Reading the comments from there. How can there be so many *******s in this country?

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Like this:

Commenting on a public radio story about a public university. Oy vey.

sycasey said:

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GoOskie said:

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okaydo said:

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Christ. Reading the comments from there. How can there be so many *******s in this country?

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Like this:

Commenting on a public radio story about a public university. Oy vey.

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Most are likely Russian trolls getting paid by the post in a windowless building in St. Petersburg

Cal88 said:

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BearNIt said:

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bearister said:

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How the Pandemic Will End
The U.S. may end up with the worst COVID-19 outbreak in the industrialized world. This is how it's going to play out.

https://apple.news/ACoT5Ron2QDeFtaTUMK7R9A

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Imagine going to a job that might kill you. This is what those that work on the front lines in healthcare grapple with every day as they kiss their spouse and kids goodbye. The protections that are needed to protect these healthcare workers are in short supply and in some instances are unavailable. Working in a hospital ER is like working in a warzone with no end in sight. You attempt to put the unpleasant thoughts of will this be the day that I get infected or does this person coughing and/or with a slight temperature have COVID 19, behind you. The hospital is at capacity but the patients keep coming and you keep providing the best care that is humanly possible. You look around and realize that some of the patients that you are providing treatment to will die leaving behind loved ones and there is nothing you can do except make them as comfortable as possible. You do this for 12 to 16 hours and make it to the end of the shift. On the way home, you wonder did I catch anything or am I going to bring anything home to my family? After all this, you realize that you have to come back to the hospital and do this all over again tomorrow. This is what is like to work in healthcare during this pandemic.

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Most of the time doctors and nurses sleep in makeshift rooms on the premises, working in 72hr shifts. At least that was what I've heard from two different sources in NYC and Miami ICUs.

In the medical profession though most people are highly motivated and have a heroic streak, they are saving lives after all. Other professions that face very high risks could have a greater challenge motivating their workforce. I'm thinking of prison staff, or maybe even retirement home staff.

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I wouldn't doubt medical personnel are highly motivated right now, but what does weeks or months of seeing patients die, coworkers getting sick and some dying do to a person?

Fixing America's broken coronavirus supply chain - Axios


https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-supply-chain-task-force-2b6be629-170c-4874-9991-7f8b3f6c5320.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiossneakpeek&stream=top

Waiting out the coronavirus is the next American struggle - Axios


https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-america-waiting-8e474434-5736-49eb-ad74-025305c031f8.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top

dimitrig said:

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sycasey said:

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GoOskie said:

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okaydo said:

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Christ. Reading the comments from there. How can there be so many *******s in this country?

---

Like this:

Commenting on a public radio story about a public university. Oy vey.

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Most are likely Russian trolls getting paid by the post in a windowless building in St. Petersburg

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This guy is a run of the mill right wing Ayn Rand libertarian. This is hardly a marginal constituency in the US, it's tens of millions strong.

The Russian troll farm narrative is a very naive conspiracy theory that takes advantage of the fact that people tend to view politics on an emotional/irrational plane.

Cal88 said:

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This guy is a run of the mill right wing Ayn Rand libertarian. This is hardly a marginal constituency in the US, it's tens of millions strong.

The Russian troll farm narrative is a very naive conspiracy theory that takes advantage of the fact that people tend to view politics on an emotional/irrational plane.

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The Russian troll farm narrative was meant as a joke. However, they do exist. In that sense it is not a conspiracy theory.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/technology/russia-troll-farm-election.html

"Submariners stealthily cruising the ocean deeps, purposefully shielded from worldly worries to encourage undivided focus on their top-secret missions of nuclear deterrence, may be among the last pockets of people anywhere who are still blissfully unaware of how the pandemic is turning life upside down.

Mariners aboard ballistic submarines are habitually spared bad news while underwater to avoid undermining their morale, say current and former officers who served aboard France's nuclear-armed subs. So any crews that left port before the virus spread around the globe are likely being kept in the dark about the extent of the rapidly unfurling crisis by their commanders until their return..." AP News



Periscope view of vacant Russian Hill district in a radioactive San Francisco an Act Two moment in Stanley Kramer's On The Beach ('60).

Friendly reminder, this is the apolitical thread. If you want to dive into the partisan hellfire and brimstone I recommend the coronavirus vrs trump thread.

At a certain point many people intersect with a point on a graph labeled "Too stupid to live."

Help at last: Navy hospital ship the USNS Comfort docks in New York



https://mol.im/a/8167815


*I'm still confused why California is "behind" other states and a sh@tstorm is going hit....when we had the virus in the community since January. Why has it taken over 2 months to take off and go bonkers?

2020 coronavirus pandemic in California - Wikipedia


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_California
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_California

If both renters and property owners are permitted to not pay their lenders for the next 3-5 months, how will banks stem the bleeding without another huge government bail out? They will run out of cash, no? And then we will head for a major real estate crash by 2021.

Decent chance someone has shared this video with you already, but just in case... here's a very clear and concise (even at 30+ minutes) subtitled interview with a Korean professor of infectious diseases. He just breaks it all down.

bearister said:

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At a certain point many people intersect with a point on a graph labeled "Too stupid to live."

Help at last: Navy hospital ship the USNS Comfort docks in New York



https://mol.im/a/8167815


*I'm still confused why California is "behind" other states and a sh@tstorm is going hit....when we had the virus in the community since January. Why has it taken over 2 months to take off and go bonkers?

2020 coronavirus pandemic in California - Wikipedia


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_California
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_California

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I have been wondering this, too. CDC and others have California 2 weeks behind New York. What is that based on? We locked down before New York did. That said, some states won't see their peaks until May.

Couldn't there presumably be 10x the amount of infected than the actual reported cases, which would render the death rate something like the common flu? Granted the symptoms and conditions appear to be worse. I've never heard of a flu that gave you respiratory issues. I've known common colds that do that.

GBear4Life said:

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If both renters and property owners are permitted to not pay their lenders for the next 3-5 months, how will banks stem the bleeding without another huge government bail out? They will run out of cash, no? And then we will head for a major real estate crash by 2021.

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I don't think of it as a cash problem so much as a toxic asset problem. When a bank's bal sheet is infected with bad loans they can't borrow from other banks, their credit default swaps (if those are still such a thing) blow up with collateral or mark to market calls and then yes i guess they do run out of cash. Nor can they do business. And since banks all lend to each other, the toxic assets on one bank's balance sheet infects the others with which they do interbank lending. Like a virus! Im sure that metaphor was used in many a financial crisis post mortem analysis. The issue is exacerbated by leverage. Banks are supposedly less leveraged/ better capitalized today than in 2008 due to greater bank regulation. But ya if it gets bad enough eventually you need Gov bailout. Unless you don't want a financial system to help your economy recover.

We taxpayers are doomed

GBear4Life said:

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If both renters and property owners are permitted to not pay their lenders for the next 3-5 months, how will banks stem the bleeding without another huge government bail out? They will run out of cash, no?

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Coronavirus brings out Silicon Valley's inner problem-solver - Axios


https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-brings-out-silicon-valleys-inner-problem-solver-47b65a4d-71fc-4324-8295-d210f892407e.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top

We're beating coronavirus odds so far thanks to early stay-home order


https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/03/31/coronavirus-early-stay-home-order-helping-san-francisco-column/5088664002/

" As recently as March 10, the rates of confirmed coronavirus infection in New York City and San Francisco were roughly the same: New York City had seven cases and San Francisco had 14. On Monday evening, New York City had more than 38,000 confirmed cases and 914 deaths; San Francisco had over 374 cases and six deaths."

dimitrig said:

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bearister said:

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At a certain point many people intersect with a point on a graph labeled "Too stupid to live."

Help at last: Navy hospital ship the USNS Comfort docks in New York



https://mol.im/a/8167815


*I'm still confused why California is "behind" other states and a sh@tstorm is going hit....when we had the virus in the community since January. Why has it taken over 2 months to take off and go bonkers?

2020 coronavirus pandemic in California - Wikipedia


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_California
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_California

---

I have been wondering this, too. CDC and others have California 2 weeks behind New York. What is that based on? We locked down before New York did. That said, some states won't see their peaks until May.

---

One thing is the misleading way things are reported by country or state. China didn't get a significant hit of the virus. Wuhan did. Italy hasn't. Northern Italy has.

Los Angeles didn't take official measures as early as the Bay Area. Further, I really believe individuals in the Bay Area were already being more careful, and the tech industry moved to work at home early and that sent a message through the whole region. At the moment, things look a little more concerning in Los Angeles than in the Bay Area and the anecdotal reports of hospitalizations are more concerning there than the Bay Area. "California" didn't get the earliest case, the Bay Area did. If you assume the best for the Bay Area - that our early action has worked, and the worst for Los Angeles - that the action didn't come quite early enough and they are on a early curve of exponential growth (and I'M NOT CLAIMING THAT IS HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT), California's numbers will skyrocket with Los Angeles even if Northern California stays okay.

"... California's numbers will skyrocket with Los Angeles even if Northern California stays okay."

Until people start fleeing to Northern California like New Yorkers did to surrounding states. Where will the Kardashians go when they flee Calabasas? That crew has a collective net worth greater than the GNP of many countries.

OaktownBear said:

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dimitrig said:

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I have been wondering this, too. CDC and others have California 2 weeks behind New York. What is that based on? We locked down before New York did. That said, some states won't see their peaks until May.

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One thing is the misleading way things are reported by country or state. China didn't get a significant hit of the virus. Wuhan did. Italy hasn't. Northern Italy has.

Los Angeles didn't take official measures as early as the Bay Area. Further, I really believe individuals in the Bay Area were already being more careful, and the tech industry moved to work at home early and that sent a message through the whole region. At the moment, things look a little more concerning in Los Angeles than in the Bay Area and the anecdotal reports of hospitalizations are more concerning there than the Bay Area. "California" didn't get the earliest case, the Bay Area did. If you assume the best for the Bay Area - that our early action has worked, and the worst for Los Angeles - that the action didn't come quite early enough and they are on a early curve of exponential growth (and I'M NOT CLAIMING THAT IS HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT), California's numbers will skyrocket with Los Angeles even if Northern California stays okay.

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Maybe you are right.

I have also been thinking a little about this and maybe it is PRECISELY because California acted faster that we are behind New York on the curve. That's the whole idea behind "flattening the curve", right? The peak comes later but it is not as high as it would have been otherwise.

I expect that Los Angeles will get harder hit than SF because LA is a much larger city. SF doesn't even have a million residents and the rest of the Bay Area is pretty suburban for the most part - more like Orange County than LA.

We all know that Cuomo has been getting lots of love for his handing of the situation in NY. Here is another perspective:
https://theweek.com/articles/905612/washington-gov-jay-inslee-what-real-coronavirus-leadership-looks-like

dimitrig said:

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I have also been thinking a little about this and maybe it is PRECISELY because California acted faster that we are behind New York on the curve. That's the whole idea behind "flattening the curve", right? The peak comes later but it is not as high as it would have been otherwise.

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I think that's exactly it.

chazzed said:

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We all know that Cuomo has been getting lots of love for his handing of the situation in NY. Here is another perspective:
https://theweek.com/articles/905612/washington-gov-jay-inslee-what-real-coronavirus-leadership-looks-like

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Yes, Cuomo and de Blasio waited a good week before taking more drastic measures. Huge mistake.

dimitrig said:

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OaktownBear said:

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dimitrig said:

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I have been wondering this, too. CDC and others have California 2 weeks behind New York. What is that based on? We locked down before New York did. That said, some states won't see their peaks until May.

---

One thing is the misleading way things are reported by country or state. China didn't get a significant hit of the virus. Wuhan did. Italy hasn't. Northern Italy has.

Los Angeles didn't take official measures as early as the Bay Area. Further, I really believe individuals in the Bay Area were already being more careful, and the tech industry moved to work at home early and that sent a message through the whole region. At the moment, things look a little more concerning in Los Angeles than in the Bay Area and the anecdotal reports of hospitalizations are more concerning there than the Bay Area. "California" didn't get the earliest case, the Bay Area did. If you assume the best for the Bay Area - that our early action has worked, and the worst for Los Angeles - that the action didn't come quite early enough and they are on a early curve of exponential growth (and I'M NOT CLAIMING THAT IS HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT), California's numbers will skyrocket with Los Angeles even if Northern California stays okay.

---

Maybe you are right.

I have also been thinking a little about this and maybe it is PRECISELY because California acted faster that we are behind New York on the curve. That's the whole idea behind "flattening the curve", right? The peak comes later but it is not as high as it would have been otherwise.

I expect that Los Angeles will get harder hit than SF because LA is a much larger city. SF doesn't even have a million residents and the rest of the Bay Area is pretty suburban for the most part - more like Orange County than LA.

---

I can't help but think that the more suburban the area, the lower the incidence would be, but that is more logical than based in science. Unforturnately the dense urban areas present challenges with almost every move you make once you go outside your own home/apartment. There are just so many things you naturally have to touch in elevators, crossing the street, entering any kind of transportation other than your own. Then there is Florida (spring break), and NO (Mardi Gras), Chicago being like NY.

The charts I see that Cal88 has put up of trajectories also show California a much lower trajectory than NY. And they are all given a start date of the day of the 10th death in the region. We have bunkered already for close to a month, but I suspect the next two weeks are going to be absolutely crucial in California. Not that it will be over at all, but it will determine it it is going to spike unfavorably. Don't get tired of the quarantine now. This is not the time.

Another thing I have not seen mentioned here is an article that I read that I believe refers to OBOR, which had to do with China (and specifically those from Wuhan province) trying to make inroads into both northern Italy and Qud in Iran, establishing an avenue and infrastructure in a road to Europe for the future. Multiple Wuhan citizens flying back and forth direct from Wuhan to Milan and to Qud, logically explaining potential for the early onset there. I have seen no confirmation of this other than Chinese working in Milan, so I am not sure if it is truthful. Anyone hear same and is there any validity. If so, some of these actions can lend some rational as to why in certain areas.

Urban would certainly logically favor the disease over suburban but suburban Santa Clara has more cases than San Francisco. The explanation is probably clusters- like a nursing home, wedding or church - where the disease can be introduced and spread rapidly. Of course in the absence of control a whole city is a cluster.

As far as Wuhan goes it is a second tier Chinese city but a major producer of auto parts ( milan) and other commodities. In today's globalized world of moving people and commodities a virus can jump and be undetected all over the world in a short time. Chinese also has the greatest number of visiting tourists in the world. This has changed radically even since SARS.

This is a very encouraging picture, it's a graph of cumulative rolling weekly number deaths over time. Italy is peaking, and China well beyond its peak, they've had around 3/day for the last 72 hrs:



and here is the number of new cases, rolled weekly, as above:



I don't think we will reach 100,000 deaths in the US, it will probably be below 50k, Trump is anchoring the audience at 100k in order to look better.

OdontoBear66 said:

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dimitrig said:

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Maybe you are right.

I have also been thinking a little about this and maybe it is PRECISELY because California acted faster that we are behind New York on the curve. That's the whole idea behind "flattening the curve", right? The peak comes later but it is not as high as it would have been otherwise.

I expect that Los Angeles will get harder hit than SF because LA is a much larger city. SF doesn't even have a million residents and the rest of the Bay Area is pretty suburban for the most part - more like Orange County than LA.

---

I can't help but think that the more suburban the area, the lower the incidence would be, but that is more logical than based in science. Unforturnately the dense urban areas present challenges with almost every move you make once you go outside your own home/apartment. There are just so many things you naturally have to touch in elevators, crossing the street, entering any kind of transportation other than your own. Then there is Florida (spring break), and NO (Mardi Gras), Chicago being like NY.

The charts I see that Cal88 has put up of trajectories also show California a much lower trajectory than NY. And they are all given a start date of the day of the 10th death in the region. We have bunkered already for close to a month, but I suspect the next two weeks are going to be absolutely crucial in California. Not that it will be over at all, but it will determine it it is going to spike unfavorably. Don't get tired of the quarantine now. This is not the time.

Another thing I have not seen mentioned here is an article that I read that I believe refers to OBOR, which had to do with China (and specifically those from Wuhan province) trying to make inroads into both northern Italy and Qud in Iran, establishing an avenue and infrastructure in a road to Europe for the future. Multiple Wuhan citizens flying back and forth direct from Wuhan to Milan and to Qud, logically explaining potential for the early onset there. I have seen no confirmation of this other than Chinese working in Milan, so I am not sure if it is truthful. Anyone hear same and is there any validity. If so, some of these actions can lend some rational as to why in certain areas.

---

The prediction is for California to peak around April 25th and for the outbreak to be pretty much over with here by June 1st. I suspect we will all be sheltering in place for all of April and by mid-May some things will be returning to normal (more businesses open subject to following safety guidelines). Hopefully by June life will start to look more like what we are used to.

My concern is that a lot of the rest of the country (and the world: looking at you Brazil!) will not be as far ahead. How do we keep infected people from coming back into California and starting this all over again? That should be the top question government needs to be answering right now. I am curious to see what happens in China and Korea over the next month.

At work we are already developing contingency plans for how to respond if we all come back into work as usual during the summer and then another outbreak occurs in the fall.