Official BI apolitical COVID-19 Thread

104,006 Views | 980 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by bearister
BearlyCareAnymore
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bearister said:

Travel From New York City Seeded Wave of U.S. Outbreaks - The New York Times


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/us/new-york-city-coronavirus-outbreak.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/us/new-york-city-coronavirus-outbreak.html?referringSource=articleShare


Is it really travel from NYC? Or is it travel to NYC and then returning home?
BearNIt
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A member of Mike Pence's staff has tested positive for COVID 19. I wonder if this changes minds in the White House regarding the wearing of masks?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/08/vice-president-mike-pence-staffer-tests-positive-for-coronavirus.html

bearister
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States face economic death spiral from coronavirus - Axios


https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-states-economy-295ac091-9dc2-4852-be67-d070ec268d8c.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top

Navajo nation reels under weight of coronavirus and history of broken promises


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/08/navajo-nation-coronavirus?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
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BearlyCareAnymore
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For you, bearister

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/us-coronavirus-cases-january/611305/
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OaktownBear said:

For you, bearister

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/us-coronavirus-cases-january/611305/
yep, Bearister posted terrible family sickness early, february iirc. most eye-catching claim was this (italic added)..

> ..by the NCHS's count, the United States did not exceed the expected number of deaths by a significant margin until the week of March 22.

"significant margin" of course is disputable, and local conditions completely different.
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bearister
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Irish support for Native American Covid-19 relief highlights historic bond


https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/may/09/irish-native-american-coronavirus-historic-bond?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

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chazzed
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We just continue to F over that group of people.

EDIT: I mean Native Americans.
bearister
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How long can coronavirus survive on surfaces or in the air? - The Economic Times


https://m.economictimes.com/magazines/panache/how-long-can-coronavirus-live-on-surfaces-or-in-the-air/articleshow/74690737.cms

If 80% of Americans Wore Masks, COVID-19 Infections Would Plummet, New Study Says | Vanity Fair


https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/05/masks-covid-19-infections-would-plummet-new-study-says
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Unit2Sucks
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Senate testimony today from Fauci, Redfield and others have been pretty interesting but mostly repeating things that most people have already acknowledged.

Here's what I've seen so far:

  • Fauci said "The consequences could be really serious" for states that reopen too early and "There is a real risk that you will trigger an outbreak that you may not be able to control," he said.
  • "We have many candidates and hope to have multiple winners," Fauci said, explaining that more vaccines will be good for global availability.
  • Fauci said it's "entirely conceivable and possible" there will be a second wave.
  • Fauci also said "I think we should be careful, if we're not cavalier in thinking that children are completely immune to the deleterious effects."
  • On the actual death toll vs reported, he said "Most of us feel that the number of deaths are likely higher than that number"
  • The US will be able to produce, distribute and apply "at least 40 to 50 million tests per month," Admiral Dr. Brett Giroir, the assistant secretary for Health at US Department of Health and Human Services, said.
  • When asked when the CDC guidelines would be released, Redfield said the guidance was going through "interagency review" and could be posted online "soon."
  • When asked if we had the outbreak under control, Fauci said "If you think we have it completely under control, no we don't."
  • Fauci on the risk-benefit of opening schools: "I don't have a good explanation or solution for the problem of what happens when you close schools and it triggers a cascade of events"

bearister
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Coronavirus high-risk spaces: Indoors with lots of people, warns UMass professor
These include restaurants, workplaces and social gatherings

https://www.bostonherald.com/2020/05/12/coronavirus-high-risk-spaces-indoors-with-lots-of-people-warns-umass-professor/
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B.A. Bearacus
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bearister said:


Coronavirus high-risk spaces: Indoors with lots of people, warns UMass professor
These include restaurants, workplaces and social gatherings

https://www.bostonherald.com/2020/05/12/coronavirus-high-risk-spaces-indoors-with-lots-of-people-warns-umass-professor/
I saw this interview he did on CNN. He mentioned that loud places can be especially problematic as speaking more loudly, as one does when it's loud, makes it more likely to project droplets from the lungs that are finer and therefore more easily transmissible.

Yogi38
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BearChemist said:


Professor Neil Ferguson. Hmmmm.
bearister
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Erin Bromage:


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Yogi38
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bearister said:

B.A. Bearacus said:




With people testing positive for antibodies so widespread, and so many asymptomatic, why do I get poo pooed every time I speculate my wife an I may have had it in February and March because we had some of the symptoms?
Beats me. I'm sure I had it. Just can't prove it yet.
BearGoggles
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This is the very best take I've read on reopening from WJS/Peggy Noonan:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/scenes-from-the-class-struggle-in-lockdown-11589498276?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=1&fbclid=IwAR0jayNl5lHQ_vPoC7Vkqj7dNMXG0ueJLNwj-THCGgeDB1GEt6SL8ebGgCA

I think there's a growing sense that we have to find a way to live with this thing, manage it the best we can, and muddle through. Covid-19 is not going away anytime soon. Summer may give us a break, late fall probably not. Vaccines are likely far off, new therapies and treatments might help a lot, but keeping things closed up tight until there are enough tests isn't a viable plan. There will never be enough tests, it was botched from the beginning, if we ever catch up it will probably be at the point tests are no longer urgently needed.

Meantime, we must ease up and manage. We should go forward with a new national commitment to masks, social distancing, hand washing. These simple things have proved the most valuable tools in the tool chest. We have to enter each day armored up. At the same time we can't allow alertness to become exhaustion. We can't let an appropriate sense of caution turn into an anxiety formation. We can't become a nation of agoraphobics. We'll just have to live, carefully.

Here's something we should stop. There's a class element in the public debate. It's been there the whole time but it's getting worse, and few in public life are acting as if they're sensitive to it. Our news professionals the past three months have made plenty of room for medical and professionals warning of the illness. Good, we needed it, it was news. They are not now paying an equal degree of sympathetic attention to those living the economic story, such as the Dallas woman who pushed back, opened her hair salon, and was thrown in jail by a preening judge. He wanted an apology. She said she couldn't apologize for trying to feed her family.

There is a class divide between those who are hard-line on lockdowns and those who are pushing back. We see the professionals on one sidethose James Burnham called the managerial elite, and Michael Lind, in "The New Class War," calls "the overclass"and regular people on the other. The overclass are highly educated and exert outsize influence as managers and leaders of important institutionshospitals, companies, statehouses. The normal people aren't connected through professional or social lines to power structures, and they have regular jobsservice worker, small-business owner.

Since the pandemic began, the overclass has been in chargescientists, doctors, political figures, consultantscalling the shots for the average people. But personally they have less skin in the game. The National Institutes of Health scientist won't lose his livelihood over what's happened. Neither will the midday anchor.

I've called this divide the protected versus the unprotected. There is an aspect of it that is not much discussed but bears on current arguments. How you have experienced life has a lot to do with how you experience the pandemic and its strictures. I think it's fair to say citizens of red states have been pushing back harder than those of blue states.

It's not that those in red states don't think there's a pandemic. They've heard all about it! They realize it will continue, they know they may get sick themselves. But they also figure this way: Hundreds of thousands could die and the American economy taken down, which would mean millions of other casualties, economic ones. Or, hundreds of thousands could die and the American economy is damaged but still stands, in which case there will be fewer economic casualtiesfewer bankruptcies and foreclosures, fewer unemployed and ruined.

They'll take the latter. It's a loss either way but one loss is worse than the other. They know the politicians and scientists can't really weigh all this on a scale with any precision because life is a messy thing that doesn't want to be quantified.

Here's a generalization based on a lifetime of experience and observation. The working-class people who are pushing back have had harder lives than those now determining their fate. They haven't had familial or economic ease. No one sent them to Yale. They often come from considerable family dysfunction. This has left them tougher or harder, you choose the word.

They're more fatalistic about life because life has taught them to be fatalistic. And they look at these scientists and reporters making their warnings about how tough it's going to be if we lift shutdowns and they don't think, "Oh what informed, caring observers." They think, "You have no idea what tough is. You don't know what painful is." And if you don't know, why should you have so much say?

The overclass says, "Wait three months before we're safe." They reply, "There's no such thing as safe."

Something else is true about those pushing back. They live life closer to the ground and pick up other damage. Everyone knows the societal costs in the abstract"domestic violence," "child abuse." Here's something concrete. In Dallas this week police received a tip and found a 6-year-old boy tied up by his grandmother and living in a shed. The child told police he'd been sleeping there since school ended "for this corona thing." According to the arrest affidavit, he was found "standing alone in a pitch-black shed in a blue storage bin with his hands tied behind his back." The grandmother and her lover were arrested on felony child-endangerment charges. The Texas Department of Family Protective Service said calls to its abuse hotline have gone down since the lockdowns because teachers and other professionals aren't regularly seeing children.

A lot of bad things happen behind America's closed doors. The pandemic has made those doors thicker.

Meanwhile some governors are playing into every stereotype of "the overclass." On Tuesday Pennsylvania's Tom Wolf said in a press briefing that those pushing against the shutdown are cowards. Local officials who "cave in to this coronavirus" will pay a price in state funding. "These folks are choosing to desert in the face of the enemy. In the middle of a war." He said he'll pull state certificates such as liquor licenses for any businesses that open. He must have thought he sounded uncompromising, like Gen. George Patton. He seemed more like Patton slapping the soldier. No sympathy, no respect, only judgment.

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer called anti-lockdown demonstrations "racist and misogynistic." She called the entire movement "political." It was, in partthere have been plenty of Trump signs, and she's a possible Democratic vice presidential nominee. But the clamor in her state is real, and serious. People are in economic distress and worry that the foundations of their lives are being swept away. How does name-calling help? She might as well have called them "deplorables." She said the protests may only make the lockdowns last longer, which sounded less like irony than a threat.

When you are reasonable with people and show them respect, they will want to respond in kind. But when they feel those calling the shots are being disrespectful, they will push back hard and rebel even in ways that hurt them.

This is no time to make our divisions worse. The pandemic is a story not only about our health but our humanity.
bearister
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If I was young and had a family to feed, I would say, "F old people." ...but I would socially distance from them and wear a mask. America really needs to change its end of life philosophy. My parents both died like dogs at 88 and 96 and they would have begged me to infect them with COVID 19. I did my best to transition them out of this world but they had bodies that refused to die.

With Faith and Friends, Convent Offers Model for End of Life - The New York Times


https://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/09/health/09sisters.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/09/health/09sisters.html?_r=1&th&emc=th

What Should Medicine Do When It Can't Save You? | The New Yorker


https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2010/08/02/letting-go-2


*This doesn't apply to younger people with compromised health

Covid-19 hurts the most vulnerable but so does lockdown. We need more nuanced debate


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/16/covid-19-coronavirus-lockdown-economy-debate?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
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bearister
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'Llamas are the real unicorns': why they could be our secret weapon against coronavirus


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/16/llama-coronavirus-antibodies-study-benefits?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Health workers risk exposure to dangerous chemicals by reusing protective gear


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/17/protective-gear-coronavirus-chemicals?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other



*It's the joggers and the disinfectant that will kill us all.
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bearister
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Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count - The New York Times


https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
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82gradDLSdad
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bearister said:

'Llamas are the real unicorns': why they could be our secret weapon against coronavirus

My wife and I walk by llamas every day. I tried to make friends but he snorted on me. I guess with the potential benefits I'll try again.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/16/llama-coronavirus-antibodies-study-benefits?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Health workers risk exposure to dangerous chemicals by reusing protective gear


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/17/protective-gear-coronavirus-chemicals?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other



*It's the joggers and the disinfectant that will kill us all.
bearister
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The coronavirus downturn might yield a new startup wave - Axios


https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-startup-wave-0cb5a972-2314-45af-9d30-8b249fe1400d.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top
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B.A. Bearacus
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https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Bay-Area-goes-two-days-straight-without-a-15279575.php
Quote:

"Bay Area goes two days straight without a coronavirus death for first time since start of March"

The Bay Area has reported zero deaths from COVID-19 for two consecutive days - the first time that has happened since March.

Health officials in the nine Bay Area counties recorded no new deaths due to the coronavirus on Sunday or Monday, as the area's death toll remained at 390.

Prior to Sunday, the last day without a reported virus-related death in the Bay Area was March 21. The last consecutive days without one were March 10-12, days before the shelter-in-place was ordered in the region and state..

The Bay Area reported a peak of 20 deaths April 22 but has recorded only one double-digit total in the last 13 days. Officials from the nine counties did report 196 new cases of the virus Sunday - the area's largest one-day spike since May 2 - and 99 new cases on Monday, bringing its total to 11,120 confirmed cases.
bearister
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Many Americans live in places with no coronavirus test sites - Axios


https://www.axios.com/us-counties-coronavirus-test-sites-67175bd0-6468-4645-8ac3-bdbe03671bc9.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top
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bearister
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Canadian scientists testing whether cannabis can block COVID-19



https://mol.im/a/8341213

This story provides substantiation for something I have been arguing for several weeks now:

If Bob Marley was alive today he would not contract COVID 19.

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bearister
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CDC finally lines up behind Dr. Streeck with regard to surface transmission. My point is not to be less cautious, but less paranoid.

April 4 article on Streeck findings:

Scientist in 'Germany's Wuhan' claims coronavirus doesn't spread as easily as thought - Daily Star


https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/scientist-germanys-wuhan-claims-coronavirus-21805392

May 21 article about CDC findings:


Coronavirus 'does not spread easily' on surfaces or objects, CDC says


https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/05/20/coronavirus-does-not-spread-easily-surfaces-objects-cdc/5232748002/

Bonus articles:

Coronavirus and swimming pools: What the CDC wants you to know


https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/news/2020/05/20/coronavirus-swimming-pools-what-know-before-you-go-cdc-guidelines/5232303002/


How Coronavirus Spreads | CDC


https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/how-covid-spreads.html



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Unit2Sucks
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bearister said:

CDC finally lines up behind Dr. Streeck with regard to surface transmission. My point is not to be less cautious, but less paranoid.

April 4 article on Streeck findings:

Scientist in 'Germany's Wuhan' claims coronavirus doesn't spread as easily as thought - Daily Star


https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/scientist-germanys-wuhan-claims-coronavirus-21805392

May 21 article about CDC findings:


Coronavirus 'does not spread easily' on surfaces or objects, CDC says


https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/05/20/coronavirus-does-not-spread-easily-surfaces-objects-cdc/5232748002/

Bonus articles:

Coronavirus and swimming pools: What the CDC wants you to know


https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/news/2020/05/20/coronavirus-swimming-pools-what-know-before-you-go-cdc-guidelines/5232303002/


How Coronavirus Spreads | CDC


https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/how-covid-spreads.html


Similar to "security theater" which makes people feel safer but is ineffective and annoying, we have a lot of recommended precautions that may not be helpful. Given how hard it is going to be to rid ourselves of this virus, it will be nice to focus our preventative energy on the mechanisms that are more likely to cause spread.

That said, I'm not sure this is big news. The CDC is still recommending regular handwashing, etc. and hasn't contradicted prior studies but says that it doesn't spread as easily from surfaces. It would be great if we could focus on airborne transmission and not have to worry about sterilizing things.
BearNIt
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So the CDC is mixing the diagnostic testing numbers with the antibody testing numbers and putting them out as the total number of people tested. This means that people saw this as the total number of people being diagnostically tested. Besides the fact that the administration has been touting these numbers as proof of testing on the diagnostic front and these numbers being used in the modeling that we look at concerning infections and deaths it is a lie plain and simple. Let the congressional inquiry begin with Azar answering before Congress who put the CDC up to this.
bearister
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Exclusive: US has three months to rebuild medical supplies stockpile, Obama administration scientists warn


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/20/exclusive-obama-us-national-stockpile-trump-coronavirus?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Global report: don't count on vaccine, US scientist warns, as cases pass 5m


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/21/global-report-coronavirus-vaccine-us-scientist-cases-5-million?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

"Californian authorities have said they will roll out guidelines for the resumption of production of Hollywood movies and TV shows on Monday, but Governor Gavin Newsom warned that Los Angeles County was likely to be excluded from the first phase. Because of the challenges of social distancing on sets, Hollywood is expected to be among the last industries to come back."

One studio has already leaked a video of the filming of a sex scene from the upcoming Ben Affleck film;



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Just for giggles a repost from today's Whatever "Blog" (kids.. ask granny) by a decent SF writer few out west have heard of, John Scalzi:
https://whatever.scalzi.com/2020/05/21/ohios-opening-up-but-im-still-staying-in

Free, and worth every penny..
Quote:

title: Ohio's Opening Up But I'm (Still) Staying In

So, Ohio is on its way to opening up entirely
restaurants can open their inside dining areas today, and by June first places like banquet halls and bowling alleys can be back in business. This is all presuming social distancing, etc, inside those halls and alleys. A lot of people around here are thrilled, and I can't say I blame them; it's difficult to be away from the world for two months, even in the best-case scenario where your job and well-being are miniminally impacted by these events. A lot of people are ready to go back into the world, or at least the bit of it encompassed by Ohio.

I'm probably not going to be one of them. And, briefly, here's why:

1. Because the virus wasn't (and isn't) actually contained.

2. Because lots of people think the virus was contained, when it wasn't (and isn't).

3. As a result, they're not really paying attention to things like masks or social distancing.

4. Or they think that things like masks/social distancing make you look weak and/or like a Democrat.

5. And I live in a county that went 78% for Trump in 2016, so you do the math here.

Sooooo, yeeeeeah. My plan is to stay home for most of June and let other people run around and see how that works out for them. The best-case scenario is that I'm being overly paranoid for an extra month, in which case we can all laugh about it afterward. The worst case scenario, of course, is death and pain and a lot of people with confused about why ventilator tubes are stuck down their throats, or the throats of their loved ones, when they were assured this was all a liberal hoax, and then all of us back in our houses until September. Once again, I would be delighted to be proved overly paranoid.
~~~~

(I could go on about all the political/social dimwittery that caused us as a nation to waste the time all of us were inside, and how we could have been in a better place vis-a-vis this virus if we had better leaders, but, honestly, you already know where I would go with all that, and I don't want to bother right now. I'm angry about it, but mostly at the moment I'm just exasperated. And tired. Possibly mildly depressed. Meh.)
~~~~

formerly-wild cat snaps: https://whatever.scalzi.com/?s=cat


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B.A. Bearacus
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Man, this is so beautiful.

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muting more than 300 handles, turnaround is fair play
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news comes that CV can be waay worse than imagined.

older folks like me know the drill, and all the usual precautions: self-isolate, masked when going out, cleanse back home,, don't worry be happy. chances are great we'll be fine. and even if infected most likely survive. besides, sooner or later we elderly eventually die from the usual carp anyways. #shrug

but i was wrong. some CV fraction (random number goes here) "survive" into long term flaming heck-fire, as elaborated back and forth in a minor twitter thread. fear is contagious, read it and freak.

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bearister
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Whew!

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bearister
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The Price of a Virus Lockdown: Economic 'Free Fall' in California - The New York Times


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/26/us/coronavirus-california-economy.html

....but then in other news..

" Truck loads are growing again. Air travel and hotel bookings are up slightly. Mortgage applications are rising. And more people are applying to open new businesses," the Wall Street Journal writes in its lead print story (subscription).

Why it matters: "These are among some early signs the U.S. economy is, ever so slowly, creeping back to life."
"If this is the only wave [of coronavirus], it looks like we've bottomed out and the normalization process has begun," said Beth Ann Bovino, U.S. chief economist at S&P Global Ratings.
"Spending on hotels, restaurants, airlines and other industries hurt by social distancing remains low, but appears to be picking up," the Journal reports.

"We're past the trough in terms of peak damage," said Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics." Axios
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Big C
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SF Chron and local County Health Departments are reporting a "sharp spike" in the number of verified COVID-19 cases in Alameda County over the last three weeks, especially last week. Same bad news in Contra Costa County (for last week).

The "why now" is still unknown. Speculation about the return to construction work this month.

Crap. This is when we need that testing and contact tracing. Or, who knows, maybe the new discoveries are due to increased testing?

At this point, it is still "merely" a situation to monitor closely.
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Big C > maybe the new discoveries are due to increased testing

hopefully so, yep.
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