you're faast. # cyber tip of the hat

I hope that this guy is overstating it, but the next couple of months could be brutal on the COVID-19 front:

chazzed said:

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I hope that this guy is overstating it, but the next couple of months could be brutal on the COVID-19 front:

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Well, how do you measure deaths? Clearly not as a total since totals never decrease. But yeah, the death rate is mathematically inherently going to go down no matter what. You have to break it down into separate time frames if you want to say something is increasing.

Anarchistbear said:

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Over 40% of deaths were in nursing homes. Over 80% of deaths were elderly. It's safe to say those communities got the message so deaths should decrease. Entirely possible, however that deaths will rise as more young people infect their parents and grandparents. A lot of their behavior quickly dispells the "young people will save us" meme

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Which is part of the inherent dishonesty of how all of this is cast.

When the top two causes in the state are prison transfers and nursing homes, then we need to have an honest conversation about why we're closing restaurants when the people getting sick aren't able to use those restaurants. But no honest conversation will ever take place. It's a political football now.

Meanwhile, in red states where nobody wears masks anywhere, children are catching it and playing Little League baseball sick instead of staying home.

Matthew Patel said:

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Anarchistbear said:

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Over 40% of deaths were in nursing homes. Over 80% of deaths were elderly. It's safe to say those communities got the message so deaths should decrease. Entirely possible, however that deaths will rise as more young people infect their parents and grandparents. A lot of their behavior quickly dispells the "young people will save us" meme

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Which is part of the inherent dishonesty of how all of this is cast.

When the top two causes in the state are prison transfers and nursing homes, then we need to have an honest conversation about why we're closing restaurants when the people getting sick aren't able to use those restaurants. But no honest conversation will ever take place. It's a political football now.

Meanwhile, in red states where nobody wears masks anywhere, children are catching it and playing Little League baseball sick instead of staying home.

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Agree. Another lockdown is politically indefensible.

Anarchistbear said:

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Matthew Patel said:

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Anarchistbear said:

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Over 40% of deaths were in nursing homes. Over 80% of deaths were elderly. It's safe to say those communities got the message so deaths should decrease. Entirely possible, however that deaths will rise as more young people infect their parents and grandparents. A lot of their behavior quickly dispells the "young people will save us" meme

---

Which is part of the inherent dishonesty of how all of this is cast.

When the top two causes in the state are prison transfers and nursing homes, then we need to have an honest conversation about why we're closing restaurants when the people getting sick aren't able to use those restaurants. But no honest conversation will ever take place. It's a political football now.

Meanwhile, in red states where nobody wears masks anywhere, children are catching it and playing Little League baseball sick instead of staying home.

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Agree. Another lockdown is politically indefensible.

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I just hope they keep Dr..Sundari Maze from abusing her power again just because infections have risen. More people out in the world naturally leads to more infections. It's not the relevant measure.

I knew that the danged Neanderthals are to blame.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/dna-linked-covid-19-inherited-152639243.html

Nah - I doubt BearForce2 had anything to do with this.

Pretty interesting visualizations of the pandemic by regions: https://public.tableau.com/profile/peter.james.walker#!/vizhome/Coronavirus-ChangeovertimeintheUSA/Regions-T_P

If you look at the South, SW and West, the positive test rate, daily positives and hospitalizations are all going in the wrong direction. Even the daily deaths charts (below) is discouraging when you break it down. Unfortunately, looking at the daily death toll in the broader context of one nationwide pandemic doesn't reflect the fact that we have a series of somewhat independent infection curves. Looking at it on a region-by-region basis unveils some of this but I'm sure if we drill down within these reasons we would find even more hotspots.

NYT, using data supplied by the CDC, says that we've had 180,000 excess deaths since the start of March. The author does an impressive job responding calmly to some pretty combative tweets.

FRONTLINE | COVID's Hidden Toll | Season 2020 | Episode 15 | PBS


https://www.pbs.org/video/covids-hidden-toll-lof6d5/

Unit2Sucks said:

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New randomized study in the New England Journal of Medicine on the effects of Hydroxycloroquine in fighting COVID-19 in Brazil.

Conclusions: "Among patients hospitalized with mild-to-moderate Covid-19, the use of hydroxychloroquine, alone or with azithromycin, did not improve clinical status at 15 days as compared with standard care."

This won't shut the door on the people who believe that HCQ + AZM + Zinc should be prescribed broadly to people prior to symptom onset or whatever it is that they are saying, but it does confirm for the nth time that it's not the gamechanger that many have speculated. This is particularly true in the US where it can take 7+ days to obtain positive test results which means very few people would be able to get HCQ prescriptions early enough in their illness to address the speculative and unproven early use case.

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And Harvey Risch continues to disagree.

Quote:

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Beyond these studies of individual patients, we have seen what happens in large populations when these drugs are used. These have been "natural experiments." In the northern Brazil state of Par, COVID-19 deaths were increasing exponentially. On April 6, the public hospital network purchased 75,000 doses of azithromycin and 90,000 doses of hydroxychloroquine. Over the next few weeks, authorities began distributing these medications to infected individuals. Even though new cases continued to occur, on May 22 the death rate started to plummet and is now about one-eighth what it was at the peak.

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Quote:

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A reverse natural experiment happened in Switzerland. On May 27, the Swiss national government banned outpatient use of hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19. Around June 10, COVID-19 deaths increased four-fold and remained elevated. On June 11, the Swiss government revoked the ban, and on June 23 the death rate reverted to what it had been beforehand. People who die from COVID-19 live about three to five weeks from the start of symptoms, which makes the evidence of a causal relation in these experiments strong. Both episodes suggest that a combination of hydroxychloroquine and its companion medications reduces mortality and should be immediately adopted as the new standard of care in high-risk patients.

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EDIT: So I reread the last quote and have to say I don't understand Risch's point about Switzerland. Below is the chart of SUI's deaths by day. He says deaths increased 4x on June 10 and "remained elevated" and then he says that SUI revoked the ban the very next day on June 11. On June 9 there was a spike to 11 deaths and there were 15 deaths on June 16. Every other day had between 0 and 2 deaths. How can something "remain elevated" with just a one day spike? Even in an exercise in cherrypicking, he seems to have chosen poorly and it makes me wonder what else he's gotten wrong. Very disconcerting.

Are you arguing with yourself?

Virus Can Travel 26 Feet at Cold Meat Plants With Stale Air


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-23/virus-can-jump-26-feet-at-cold-meat-plants-filled-with-stale-air

Bill Gates warns multiple coronavirus vaccine doses likely to be needed and schools should stay closed for another YEAR


https://www.the-sun.com/news/1184945/bill-gates-vaccines-schools-closed-donald-trump/


Niagara Falls tour boats highlight US and Canada's stark Covid-19 divide


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/24/niagara-falls-tour-boats-us-canada-coronavirus?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

*I was on one of those Canadian boats last September. HIGHLY RECOMMEND!

bearister said:

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Virus Can Travel 26 Feet at Cold Meat Plants With Stale Air


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-23/virus-can-jump-26-feet-at-cold-meat-plants-filled-with-stale-air

Bill Gates warns multiple coronavirus vaccine doses likely to be needed and schools should stay closed for another YEAR


https://www.the-sun.com/news/1184945/bill-gates-vaccines-schools-closed-donald-trump/


Niagara Falls tour boats highlight US and Canada's stark Covid-19 divide


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/24/niagara-falls-tour-boats-us-canada-coronavirus?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

*I was on one of those Canadian boats last September. HIGHLY RECOMMEND!

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I'm surprised that the Canadian boats found it worth while to keep running with only 6 passengers. The differences in approach between Ontario and New York and their respective COVID-19 infection rates does make a strong argument that stricter social distancing makes a big difference.

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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bearister said:

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Virus Can Travel 26 Feet at Cold Meat Plants With Stale Air


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-23/virus-can-jump-26-feet-at-cold-meat-plants-filled-with-stale-air

Bill Gates warns multiple coronavirus vaccine doses likely to be needed and schools should stay closed for another YEAR


https://www.the-sun.com/news/1184945/bill-gates-vaccines-schools-closed-donald-trump/


Niagara Falls tour boats highlight US and Canada's stark Covid-19 divide


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/24/niagara-falls-tour-boats-us-canada-coronavirus?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

*I was on one of those Canadian boats last September. HIGHLY RECOMMEND!

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I'm surprised that the Canadian boats found it worth while to keep running with only 6 passengers. The differences in approach between Ontario and New York and their respective COVID-19 infection rates does make a strong argument that stricter social distancing makes a big difference.

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Maybe those 6 passengers paid $3000 each.

bearister said:

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Florida ruining things for everyone as usual.

I have been watching A's games. As soon as I saw that most players in the dugout don't wear masks or socially distance, I thought to myself, "This baseball experiment won't make it two weeks."*

* The Clippers player that got an exemption to leave sequester in Orlando to attend a funeral got caught in a strip club so watch the NBA experiment fold as well.

When looking at data and research there seems to be very little modeling, actually none that I could find, that project scenarios for potential spikes in the general population upon kid's return to school. Most articles adhere to narrow description of infection/fatality rate amongst kids and teachers. It is a tight examination of the risk in the bubble of the classroom without the larger community ramifications. And if they do look outside the bubble they often point to examples in other countries that have case numbers and infections rates nothing like the US.

It seems that parents are not being well informed about possible consequences to their children, the schools, the staff, the community, the nation, and themselves. Instead it is all this "tough love" pragmatism of needing to get the economy going and kids need to socialize and kids will PROBABLY be okay. How did we get to the point of using kids as a political tool, or experiment on transmissibility?

The CDC itself has this as their opening statement on why schools should open. Seriously, THIS is the good argument for opening? This is the level of callousness? So glad to know that only SOME kids will die. I mean if it's less than how many adults would have died then it must be okay, right?

"As families and policymakers make decisions about their children returning to school, it is important to consider the full spectrum of benefits and risks of both in-person and virtual learning options. Parents are understandably concerned about the safety of their children at school in the wake of COVID-19. The best available evidence indicates if children become infected, they are far less likely to suffer severe symptoms. Death rates among school-aged children are much lower than among adults."

Other than the political arguments, or the look the other way denial, what is the actual safety, acceptable risk modeling that shows how this will likely play out well for the country that was used for basis of the recommendation? Was there any? Why isn't widely available to the public and an easy reference piece? Is there any science behind the decision? Or just a hope and and a re-election requirement?

Can someone on the board provide real data that parents can use, that the government used, that justifies what looks like horrible public health policy that is going to kill many children and lead to another massive speak across the country in September? I can not make sense of the present course of action and the silent complicity of the teacher's union and most parents ("got to get these kids out of the house, I hope they don't die"). I really don't understand what we are doing.

Houston Chronicle weighing in with an article discussing the under reporting of deaths in Texas:

Quote:

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Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in Texas, the state's death toll from all causes has soared by thousands above historical averages a sobering spike that experts say reveals the true toll of the disease.

Between the beginning of the local pandemic and the end of July, 95,000 deaths were reported in Texas, according to U.S. Centers for Disease Control data. Based on historical mortality records and predictive modeling, government epidemiologists would have expected to see about 82,500 deaths during that time.

The CDC attributed more than 7,100 deaths to COVID-19, but that leaves roughly 5,500 more than expected and with no identified tie to the pandemic. The CDC's chief of mortality, Dr. Bob Anderson, said these "excess deaths" are likely from a range of pandemic-related problems, including misclassifications because doctors did not initially understand the many ways that COVID-19 affects the circulatory system and results in a stroke or a heart attack.

"It can cause all sorts of havoc in the body," he said.

The CDC data offers an opaque but important estimate of how deadly the virus has been in Texas, which suffered from testing shortages for weeks as COVID-19 case counts climbed.

"It has shocked me to see people think that there's overcounts of the COVID deaths, because I can't even imagine that that'd be the case," said Mark Hayward, a professor at the University of Texas who studies mortality trends. "The undercount is so dramatic."

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https://medium.com/@staceyrudin/anti-lockdowners-take-a-stand-23250fec0416

kelly09 said:

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https://medium.com/@staceyrudin/anti-lockdowners-take-a-stand-23250fec0416

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I agree. I wish Notre Dame didn't suspend classes and that it's football team suits up. I think all the colleges in the Red states should be open for business and playing football and that frat parties not only encouraged but state subsidized.

Really hoping this isn't accurate.

Unit2Sucks said:

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Really hoping this isn't accurate.

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You have nothing to fear. Vote Blue No Matter Who people have no heart to damage, so even if you catch it, you won't have to worry.

popular thumb twiddler, w/nearly 50 million views

dangerous times? wash lots..

Will tRump get The Taint?

As Trump travels, Secret Service copes with infections - StamfordAdvocate


http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/secret-service-copes-with-coronavirus-cases-in-aftermath-of-trump-appearances/2020/08/28/fa0e7b6e-e22a-11ea-8dd2-d07812bf00f7_story.html

Financial Times weighs in with an interesting article on how Finland has dealt with COVID. Apparently being prepared really does help - and the result was much lower infection and death rates and less disruption to the economy. As you can see from the chart below, there is a pretty strong correlation between deaths and economic disruption but you all know how I feel about that.

Quote:

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Pekka Nuorti, professor of epidemiology at Tampere University, said it went beyond that. "Finland has a long tradition of responding to crises and people tend to come together when there is a crisis. What was remarkable when the restrictions were implemented was the changes in population behaviour," he added, pointing to a three-quarters reduction in social contact among people. He added: "A pandemic is really a mirror of a whole society's functioning and organisation as a whole."

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A recap of the current leading vaccine candidates.

This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/

Matthew Patel said:

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This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/

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Good article: an intelligent, "middle path" approach to lowering coronavirus transmission. I have to wonder, though, if this country is capable of pulling off "intelligent" anymore.

The coronavirus delivers an alarming impact on the body - Axios


https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-organ-damage-975f146b-563c-482e-a812-82980652e288.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top