Final Election Prediction

122,371 Views | 1183 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by concordtom
dajo9
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hanky1 said:

dajo9 said:

We can thank the Electoral College for the proposition of election riots, and understandably so.

I don't know why a bunch of learned people on this site would pretend that it's ok if the American people don't get to choose their President just because of a document written in the 1700's.


Yeah F that document. It's stupid anyways. Let's burn it to the ground


Surely we can all agree that the slaveowners who wrote it got some things wrong
GoOskie
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bearister said:

"There simply are not enough...really stupid people..."
Uhh, bearister, I hate to break it to ya...
This just in: Republicans find another whistleblower who claims Hillary's emails were proven to be on Hunter's laptop while Obama spied on tRump as he sat (shat?) upon his golden toilet. Gym Jordan afraid whistle blower may be in danger of abduction by aliens in cahoots with Democrats.
bearister
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GoOskie said:

bearister said:

"There simply are not enough...really stupid people..."
Uhh, bearister, I hate to break it to ya...


Remember, I used the qualifier, "to legitimately re-elect.." But there are certainly enough of them to make it close enough so that some Americans won't be sure if the election was rigged or not.
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I got some friends inside
hanky1
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Are any of you looters taking orders? Can you get me a PlayStation?
hanky1
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dajo9 said:

hanky1 said:

dajo9 said:

We can thank the Electoral College for the proposition of election riots, and understandably so.

I don't know why a bunch of learned people on this site would pretend that it's ok if the American people don't get to choose their President just because of a document written in the 1700's.


Yeah F that document. It's stupid anyways. Let's burn it to the ground


Surely we can all agree that the slaveowners who wrote it got some things wrong


At least dajo has a sense of humor. I swear to God some of you are have a serious mental disorder w how you get your panties bunched up everytime you hear Trump's name. Chill the F out.

You'd think that after 4 years of constantly talking about Trump that you'd learn to laugh at the situation and yourself a little bit but I guess not.
sycasey
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kelly09 said:

Cal88 said:

Trump is going to win, easily, holding on to his 2016 states, with another near sweep of the midwest. Trafalgar polling has him ahead in PA. Their methodology is more technically sound, and they have proven to be more accurate than the Nate Silver poll soup back in 2016 and the dynamics now are exactly the same.









Trafalgar has Biden ahead in NV by 2 pts. Intuitively, I have a hard time a state as devastated by the lockdown as NV can vote for Biden, but I have to go with their numbers, we'll see...

This is my prediction map, you can build yours and post it on this thread from https://www.270towin.com/



Final score: Trump 312 - 226 Biden.

Analysis:
-Slightly lower Black turnout than in 2016, with more Black men voting Trump
-Trump doing a bit better with Latinos, esp in FL
-Trump benefiting from the Antifa/BLM mayhem, esp in states like WI
-Large turnout from Trump base in rural areas, providing a decisive edge in PA, MI and other states
-Rep. Boomers switching from Trump to Biden due to covid fear
-Dem Boomers switching from Clinton to Trump due to BLM/Antifa chaos
-More new voters coming in mostly for Trump
-Relatively low turnout from the youth due to locked down campuses and city centers

The election is going to be settled by late Tuesday/early Wednesday, just like in 2016. There will be no major post-election drama like in 2000.

seems right.
As for Nate The Great Ag.....We have Hillary in 2016.
in 2018, we have a Dem majority senate with such victorious stalwarts as Donnelly, Nelson, McCaskill.
Wait, do you think 2018 proved Nate Silver's model wrong? His model predicted Republicans would retain control of the Senate.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/

It was also very close to nailing the Dems' seat gain in the House.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=midterms-header
bearister
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hanky1 said:

Are any of you looters taking orders? Can you get me a PlayStation?


No, but I will get you a sexbot with Ivanka's pre plastic surgery face and body.
Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside
BearForce2
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hanky1 said:

Are any of you looters taking orders? Can you get me a PlayStation?
I want a Rolex.
The difference between a right wing conspiracy and the truth is about 20 months.
dimitrig
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I voted in person today and the turnout here (LA County) was very light. There was no line and there were about 3-4 of us voting in a facility that had approximately 40 voting machines setup. I asked the volunteer if this was typical and she said it has been that way during the entire early voting period.

Based on the data I have seen nationally so far, Dems are mailing in more ballots and voting early at the polls so the only way Trump can win is if there is a massive surge in in-person voting by Republicans tomorrow. There certainly wasn't any surge going on today - at least not in my area.

Therefore, I have to ask if any of our resident Republican trolls voted yet or if they all holding out to vote in person tomorrow to drive a huge Election Day red wave?






BearForce2
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dajo9 said:

We can thank the Electoral College for the proposition of election riots, and understandably so.

I don't know why a bunch of learned people on this site would pretend that it's ok if the American people don't get to choose their President just because of a document written in the 1700's.

Fundamentally transform our country - consistent with what Obama said.
You don't fundamentally transform anything you love.
The Americans will beat the leftists in this election.

The difference between a right wing conspiracy and the truth is about 20 months.
BearForce2
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blungld said:

And there it is. Just as on all threads here. When the Trump supporters show up there is no position taken. They don't respond to the OP question and what is being discussed. Nope. They appear with a change of subject and a whatabout and just a sarcastic claim at Liberals. The entire Trump phenomenon is stand for nothing. Have no ethical center or guiding principle. Just be bitter and make unsubstantiated claims. Attacking a Liberal is almost like having your own real genuine position.

How about you actually detail what YOU think will happen the election and not your stupid "I'll tell you what won't happen..."

Do you have Bearister and half of the other left wing posters on ignore?
The difference between a right wing conspiracy and the truth is about 20 months.
BearForce2
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Cal88 said:

Trump is going to win, easily, holding on to his 2016 states, with another near sweep of the midwest. Trafalgar polling has him ahead in PA. Their methodology is more technically sound, and they have proven to be more accurate than the Nate Silver poll soup back in 2016 and the dynamics now are exactly the same.









Trafalgar has Biden ahead in NV by 2 pts. Intuitively, I have a hard time a state as devastated by the lockdown as NV can vote for Biden, but I have to go with their numbers, we'll see...

This is my prediction map, you can build yours and post it on this thread from https://www.270towin.com/



Final score: Trump 312 - 226 Biden.

Analysis:
-Slightly lower Black turnout than in 2016, with more Black men voting Trump
-Trump doing a bit better with Latinos, esp in FL
-Trump benefiting from the Antifa/BLM mayhem, esp in states like WI
-Large turnout from Trump base in rural areas, providing a decisive edge in PA, MI and other states
-Rep. Boomers switching from Trump to Biden due to covid fear
-Dem Boomers switching from Clinton to Trump due to BLM/Antifa chaos
-More new voters coming in mostly for Trump
-Relatively low turnout from the youth due to locked down campuses and city centers

The election is going to be settled by late Tuesday/early Wednesday, just like in 2016. There will be no major post-election drama like in 2000.


The ANTIFA/BLM rioting this weekend will help boost numbers for Trump in PA and elsewhere. It's like free political advertising.
The difference between a right wing conspiracy and the truth is about 20 months.
BearForce2
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dajo9 said:

hanky1 said:

dajo9 said:

We can thank the Electoral College for the proposition of election riots, and understandably so.

I don't know why a bunch of learned people on this site would pretend that it's ok if the American people don't get to choose their President just because of a document written in the 1700's.


Yeah F that document. It's stupid anyways. Let's burn it to the ground


Surely we can all agree that the slaveowners who wrote it got some things wrong

Surely, we can all agree the last people we want amending it are the idiots who brought us 3 years of Russia collusion hoax.
The difference between a right wing conspiracy and the truth is about 20 months.
Sonofoski
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dajo9,

So you think that California, New York, Illinois, and New Jersey should decide who is elected.
okaydo
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Sonofoski said:

dajo9,

So you think that California, New York, Illinois, and New Jersey should decide who is elected.

You really think that California, New York, Illinois and New Jersey has enough votes to determine an election?

Hell, Biden carrying those 4 states doesn't even given him half the electoral votes he needs.

The problem with the Electoral College is that it concentrates power into a few states because they are purple.

But you saw the flaw a few weeks ago when Trump said he'd withhold aid to California. The state with the biggest population has so much economic power but it might as well be Puerto Rico to the Republicans, even though California has more Republicans than most states.

dajo9
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Sonofoski said:

dajo9,

So you think that California, New York, Illinois, and New Jersey should decide who is elected.


I believe in one person one vote. Why do you think somebody in Wyoming should have more power than you?
sycasey
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okaydo said:

Sonofoski said:

dajo9,

So you think that California, New York, Illinois, and New Jersey should decide who is elected.

You really think that California, New York, Illinois and New Jersey has enough votes to determine an election?

Hell, Biden carrying those 4 states doesn't even given him half the electoral votes he needs.

The problem with the Electoral College is that it concentrates power into a few states because they are purple.

But you saw the flaw a few weeks ago when Trump said he'd withhold aid to California. The state with the biggest population has so much economic power but it might as well be Puerto Rico to the Republicans, even though California has more Republicans than most states.


The problem is not even with the purple states. There will always be some of those. The problem is that the founders never envisioned a scenario where the populations of states would be so wildly different. Since there is a minimum in the EC the lowest population states, collectively, get a big advantage.

And of course, the issue is even bigger in the Senate.
BearForce2
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dajo9 said:

Sonofoski said:

dajo9,

So you think that California, New York, Illinois, and New Jersey should decide who is elected.


I believe in one person one vote. Why do you think somebody in Wyoming should have more power than you?

Why don't you move to move to Wyoming then? If you do, you'll end up with one vote, consistent with your beliefs.
The difference between a right wing conspiracy and the truth is about 20 months.
Big C
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BearForce2 said:

dajo9 said:

Sonofoski said:

dajo9,

So you think that California, New York, Illinois, and New Jersey should decide who is elected.


I believe in one person one vote. Why do you think somebody in Wyoming should have more power than you?

Why don't you move to move to Wyoming then? If you do, you'll end up with one vote, consistent with your beliefs.

If the shoe were on the other foot, you wouldn't like it either.
BearForce2
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Big C said:

BearForce2 said:

dajo9 said:

Sonofoski said:

dajo9,

So you think that California, New York, Illinois, and New Jersey should decide who is elected.


I believe in one person one vote. Why do you think somebody in Wyoming should have more power than you?

Why don't you move to move to Wyoming then? If you do, you'll end up with one vote, consistent with your beliefs.

If the shoe were on the other foot, you wouldn't like it either.
True, but my position then isn't to abolish the Electoral College.
The difference between a right wing conspiracy and the truth is about 20 months.
Big C
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Cal88 said:

Trump is going to win, easily, holding on to his 2016 states, with another near sweep of the midwest. Trafalgar polling has him ahead in PA. Their methodology is more technically sound, and they have proven to be more accurate than the Nate Silver poll soup back in 2016 and the dynamics now are exactly the same.









Trafalgar has Biden ahead in NV by 2 pts. Intuitively, I have a hard time a state as devastated by the lockdown as NV can vote for Biden, but I have to go with their numbers, we'll see...

This is my prediction map, you can build yours and post it on this thread from https://www.270towin.com/



Final score: Trump 312 - 226 Biden.

Analysis:
-Slightly lower Black turnout than in 2016, with more Black men voting Trump
-Trump doing a bit better with Latinos, esp in FL
-Trump benefiting from the Antifa/BLM mayhem, esp in states like WI
-Large turnout from Trump base in rural areas, providing a decisive edge in PA, MI and other states
-Rep. Boomers switching from Trump to Biden due to covid fear
-Dem Boomers switching from Clinton to Trump due to BLM/Antifa chaos
-More new voters coming in mostly for Trump
-Relatively low turnout from the youth due to locked down campuses and city centers

The election is going to be settled by late Tuesday/early Wednesday, just like in 2016. There will be no major post-election drama like in 2000.


Are you just trying to scare me, Cal88? Well, you're doing a good job, but Halloween was two days ago, so cut it out!


No predictions here. I can envision a number of election and post-election scenarios. I am optimistic (with good reason), but VERY MUCH ON EDGE!
BearForce2
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I predict rioting and looting.
The difference between a right wing conspiracy and the truth is about 20 months.
sycasey
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Big C said:

Cal88 said:

Trump is going to win, easily, holding on to his 2016 states, with another near sweep of the midwest. Trafalgar polling has him ahead in PA. Their methodology is more technically sound, and they have proven to be more accurate than the Nate Silver poll soup back in 2016 and the dynamics now are exactly the same.









Trafalgar has Biden ahead in NV by 2 pts. Intuitively, I have a hard time a state as devastated by the lockdown as NV can vote for Biden, but I have to go with their numbers, we'll see...

This is my prediction map, you can build yours and post it on this thread from https://www.270towin.com/



Final score: Trump 312 - 226 Biden.

Analysis:
-Slightly lower Black turnout than in 2016, with more Black men voting Trump
-Trump doing a bit better with Latinos, esp in FL
-Trump benefiting from the Antifa/BLM mayhem, esp in states like WI
-Large turnout from Trump base in rural areas, providing a decisive edge in PA, MI and other states
-Rep. Boomers switching from Trump to Biden due to covid fear
-Dem Boomers switching from Clinton to Trump due to BLM/Antifa chaos
-More new voters coming in mostly for Trump
-Relatively low turnout from the youth due to locked down campuses and city centers

The election is going to be settled by late Tuesday/early Wednesday, just like in 2016. There will be no major post-election drama like in 2000.


Are you just trying to scare me, Cal88? Well, you're doing a good job, but Halloween was two days ago, so cut it out!

No predictions here. I can envision a number of election and post-election scenarios. I am optimistic (with good reason), but VERY MUCH ON EDGE!
His numbers are all from one pollster that has been the most consistently right-leaning pollster of the entire cycle. They also weren't really the most accurate in 2016, other than being "right" about who won. They predicted Trump winning the popular vote, which he lost by 2 points.

I wouldn't put much stock into this analysis. Not that Trump can't possibly win, but Cal88's evidence is cherry-picked as usual.
BearForce2
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The difference between a right wing conspiracy and the truth is about 20 months.
dimitrig
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Sonofoski said:

dajo9,

So you think that California, New York, Illinois, and New Jersey should decide who is elected.

I've got news for you and other people who think the electoral college is a good thing.

This is practically already the case!

A candidate can win the Presidency by winning just the 11 largest states and to hell with the other 39.

A candidate can also win the Presidency by winning just 27% of the popular vote by winning those large states by a single vote each and getting 0% of the vote in the other 39 states.

Or, you can turn it around and assume that a candidate wins all of the states EXCEPT the 10 largest. That's enough electoral votes to win and would garner just 23% of the popular vote.

Any candidate that wins California, New York, and Texas is going to be very hard to beat! Do you think that California, New York, and Texas should decide who is elected?

I guarantee you once Texas starts voting reliably Democrat suddenly those red states won't like the electoral college so much.

Besides, why shouldn't the millions of Republicans in California and Democrats in Texas have a say in who the President is?

Time to either get rid of it or award electoral votes proportionally according to the percentage of the popular vote, which is functionally the same.

We don't vote that way for any other public office.





BearForce2
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The difference between a right wing conspiracy and the truth is about 20 months.
golden sloth
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BearForce2 said:



I predict rioting and looting.



I'm not worried about most conservatives, but I am worried that some conservatives declare a fake election, grab their guns and shoot people. The right is far more likely to believe misinformation, get righteous and start killing people. This happened with Gifford, with Sayoc jr, with the vigilante militias that went to kenosha, with pizza gate, just to name a few.

I know it's a minority of conservatives that do this, but I do think it is the greater concern.
dimitrig
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golden sloth said:

BearForce2 said:



I predict rioting and looting.



I'm not worried about most conservatives, but I am worried that some conservatives declare a fake election, grab their guns and shoot people. The right is far more likely to believe misinformation, get righteous and start killing people. This happened with Gifford, with Sayoc jr, with the vigilante militias that went to kenosha, with pizza gate, just to name a few.

I know it's a minority of conservatives that do this, but I do think it is the greater concern.

I predict that if Trump wins this election while getting walloped in the popular vote there are going to be people in the streets demanding his resignation the likes of which hasn't been seen since the Civil Rights Era.







dajo9
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If Biden (or Trump) wins the popular vote and they are not made President, resistance and rebellion is the most noble course of action
hanky1
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dimitrig said:

golden sloth said:

BearForce2 said:



I predict rioting and looting.



I'm not worried about most conservatives, but I am worried that some conservatives declare a fake election, grab their guns and shoot people. The right is far more likely to believe misinformation, get righteous and start killing people. This happened with Gifford, with Sayoc jr, with the vigilante militias that went to kenosha, with pizza gate, just to name a few.

I know it's a minority of conservatives that do this, but I do think it is the greater concern.

I predict that if Trump wins this election while getting walloped in the popular vote there are going to be people in the streets demanding his resignation the likes of which hasn't been seen since the Civil Rights Era.



I predict that if Trump wins this election while getting walloped in the popular vote, hanky1 will laugh for a few solid hours.
hanky1
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dajo9 said:

If Biden (or Trump) wins the popular vote and they are not made President, resistance and rebellion is the most noble course of action


I believe mobilizing the army and shooting rebels is the noblest course of action for anyone who openly rebels against the US government.
dimitrig
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BearForce2 said:




Or, put another way, Biden needs just one of them barring an upset elsewhere.

okaydo
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dimitrig
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okaydo said:





'Huff' is right.

BearForce2
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