too much with the clowning around already #imo

GoOskie said:

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LMK5 said:

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bearister said:

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hanky1 said:

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dajo9 said:

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If Biden (or Trump) wins the popular vote and they are not made President, resistance and rebellion is the most noble course of action

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I believe mobilizing the army and shooting rebels is the noblest course of action for anyone who openly rebels against the US government.

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If Biden wins, the best thing about the Proud Boys and the militiamen is that they are so f@ucking fat that a center mass shot is a no brainer. The Guard will put'em down and torch what's left in place.

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Your obsession with guns and blubber is getting worrisome. We're just here for fun my friend.

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Guns and blubber are fun, though.

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I'm hiding in honduras, I'm a desperate man
Send lawyers, guns, and blubber
The sh@it has hit the fan
Send lawyers, guns, and blubber
Send lawyers, guns, and blubber

-Warren Zevon

I'm also partial to flubber.

Sonofoski said:

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okaydo,

What does carrying 4 states have to do with anything other than they have a strong Democrat lean?

The issue is that those 4 states along with the other 46 states give a candidate the popular vote. The fact these states are heavily democrat, much so, that they swing the election. As a result, those states that are more balanced between Republicans and Democrats lose any say in the election.

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So it's better to have 8 states be important in each election rather than having all the other states be important?

sycasey said:

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Sonofoski said:

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sycasey,

You are clueless. The reason the founders created the electoral college was to prevent the most populous states from determining who would get elected.

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In their day, the most populous state had about 20 times the population of the least populous. Today it's 60 times.

Not sure the founders anticipated that.

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Just for the record:

Wyoming's population is 578,759.

California's population is 39,512,223.

39,512,223 divided by 578,759 = 68.

"Guns not blubber."

-Joseph Goebbels

okaydo said:

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sycasey said:

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Sonofoski said:

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sycasey,

You are clueless. The reason the founders created the electoral college was to prevent the most populous states from determining who would get elected.

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In their day, the most populous state had about 20 times the population of the least populous. Today it's 60 times.

Not sure the founders anticipated that.

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Just for the record:

Wyoming's population is 578,759.

California's population is 39,512,223.

39,512,223 divided by 578,759 = 68.

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I was doing some rough, rounded-off math. But yes.

Numbers for Ohio not looking good for Trump.

Go Joe!

NYT reporting FL and GA for Trump with >95% and 86% probability respectively. FL is settled because it's dead even with the Panhandle's results yet to come in.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/forecast-president.html

Cal88 said:

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NYT reporting FL and GA for Trump with >95% and 86% probability respectively. FL is settled because it's dead even with the Panhandle's results yet to come in.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/forecast-president.html

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I have early Virginia numbers going for Trump but my graphic shows up blue for Biden, what gives?

With Florida and Georgia in the bag for Trump it looks like this race is going to be a squeaker. North Carolina and Ohio are in play for both, although in Ohio it is mostly the mail-in votes that have been counted so it is not out of reach for Trump.

Any hopes for a Biden landslide are out the window, which doesn't mean he can't or won't still win.

We're at the halfway point for Ohio and Biden has a 12 point lead.

BearForce2 said:

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We're at the halfway point for Ohio and Biden has a 12 point lead.

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Yeah, but that mostly reflects early voting which was expected to favor Biden. I expect that is going to narrow. How much will it narrow? We will see.

Yup, Democrats can never count on Florida.

But midwestern results more promising: margins seem to have shifted pretty strongly Biden in counties that are nearly fully reported. But it's hard to say with the mail ballots versus Election Day. Most of the shift in FL was about Cubans, which you won't find much of elsewhere.

BearForce2 said:

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Cal88 said:

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NYT reporting FL and GA for Trump with >95% and 86% probability respectively. FL is settled because it's dead even with the Panhandle's results yet to come in.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/forecast-president.html

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I have early Virginia numbers going for Trump but my graphic shows up blue for Biden, what gives?

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Me too.

Biden has a 6 point lead in NC with 69% reporting.

What is disconcerting is not that Trump won Georgia and Florida but that he won them more easily than anticipated. That might not bode well for other close contests. That said, who knows how that vote translates elsewhere?

Can we see something unexpected like Biden winning Ohio and Pennsylvania but losing Michigan? (I would take that result.)

Moreover, it looks like the Senate is going to end up 50/50 in the best case. (I would also take that.)

BearForce2 said:

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Biden has a 6 point lead in NC with 69% reporting.

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NYT has Trump with an 82% chance of winning in NC.

dimitrig said:

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BearForce2 said:

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Biden has a 6 point lead in NC with 69% reporting.

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NYT has Trump with an 82% chance of winning in NC.

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Biden now has 3 point lead with 77% reporting.

dimitrig said:

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BearForce2 said:

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We're at the halfway point for Ohio and Biden has a 12 point lead.

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Yeah, but that mostly reflects early voting which was expected to favor Biden. I expect that is going to narrow. How much will it narrow? We will see.

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According to 538:

"In Ohio, Biden leads by 18 points among absentee votes and by 2 points among in-person votes. So, that sounds really good for Biden, right? Well, maybe, but we may be seeing the early in-person votes reported first, which are likely better for Biden than the ones cast on Election Day."

dimitrig said:

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dimitrig said:

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BearForce2 said:

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We're at the halfway point for Ohio and Biden has a 12 point lead.

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Yeah, but that mostly reflects early voting which was expected to favor Biden. I expect that is going to narrow. How much will it narrow? We will see.

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According to 538:

"In Ohio, Biden leads by 18 points among absentee votes and by 2 points among in-person votes. So, that sounds really good for Biden, right? Well, maybe, but we may be seeing the early in-person votes reported first, which are likely better for Biden than the ones cast on Election Day."

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Already down to Biden +5. This state was predicted to be close. I think it will be decided by 1% or less either way.

Biden holding onto 2 pt and 3 pt leads in North Carolina and Ohio, respectively.

dimitrig said:

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BearForce2 said:

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Biden has a 6 point lead in NC with 69% reporting.

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NYT has Trump with an 82% chance of winning in NC.

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Nate Cohn now says that his "needle" model might be biased by the early results in Florida, and you can't be sure the same effects will be repeated in other states. So it's still an open question in NC and GA. In GA especially it looks like the Atlanta vote will be counted late, thanks to a water pipe break.

https://www.businessinsider.com/burst-pipe-delays-absentee-ballot-counting-in-georgias-biggest-county-2020-11

I think we won't know the result tonight, gonna have to sit tight.

bearister said:

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I have to say, I feel rather stupid myself right now. Every election, I promise myself I'm not going to sweat the minute by minute updates and go do something productive like cooking a healthy meal, go for a workout, get dinner with a friend, and simply read the results at 10 or 11 when the results start becoming final. Yet, here I am checking the results every 10 minutes.

North Carolina is now even, Trump has a slim 2 point lead in Ohio.

BearForce2 said:

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North Carolina is now even, Trump has a slim 2 point lead in Ohio.

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I think Trump has won the election. How and why I don't know, but he is exceeding expectations and in a close race I think it will be enough to win.

I hope I am wrong but I don't think so.

Biden was and is a crappy choice who ran a poor campaign. Harris didn't help him in any meaningful way - pretty much making sure racist rednecks that were uncertain would vote against the ticket. He was hoping she would secure the black vote but what he needs is the white uneducated vote. She won't bring him that.

I am not wrong about this part.

oh those racist rednecks are up to no good again voting and all.

It's still a close election, too close to call.

PA is up for grabs and Biden is leading in AZ with 71% reporting.

The NYT has all but called NC for Trump, that race is over, along with FL and GA. The raw returns are very uneven, the projection of professional outfits like the NYT is based on an analysis of the deltas in results by county vs 2016 and latest polls.

Trump is going to win comfortably in OH as well.

Trafalgar has Biden winning comfortably in MN, and with a razor thin margin in WI. They also have Trump by 2.5 in MI and 2 in PA. Out west, they have AZ and NV for Trump, and an EC total of 303 for Trump. They were right on the nose for FL, 2.6 points.

Nate Cohn has lost any sliver of credibility he had going into this, he's totally blown it, predicting a Biden win in FL, where a statewide Rep surge including in Miami-Dade and Broward has been reported on the ground. I'm not sure if he's plain inept or just really biased, probably a combination of the two.

At this point the race is Trump's to lose, Biden is going to need MI and/or PA to survive going forward.

BearForce2 said:

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PA is up for grabs and Biden is leading in AZ with 71% reporting.

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Won't matter in the end. Trump is winning where he needed to by large margins. That means he will win somewhere he was not expected to. He will still lose the popular vote.