okaydo said:

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concordtom said:

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okaydo said:

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From NBC website

First Read: Win or lose, Trump and his politics look like they're here to stay

WASHINGTON Whether or not President Trump ultimately wins or loses and the remaining vote appears to be strong for Joe Biden Trumpism looks like it's here to stay.

Democrats were hoping for a repudiation of Trump; that a GOP loss so big would force Republicans to the negotiating table, to try to compete for votes in urban/suburban America, and to dial down the scorched-earth politics over the last few years.

Instead, even if Trump doesn't win, he might have helped the GOP keep its Senate majority and pick up House seats when Republicans looked destined to lose them.

Bottom line: Even if he's voted out of office as we continue to count the votes in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin Trump and his brand of politics aren't leaving the political scene.

Urban versus rural. Those with college degrees versus those without. Women versus men.

And those divides will affect how this country tries to recover from a pandemic, an economic recession and social/racial tensions across the country.

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I wonder if Trumpism is like Obamaism.

Trump and Obama were uniquely charismatic presidents who drew a lot of people who wanted to vote for them, and perhaps only for them.

I wonder how many Trump fans will actually vote for a Boring Republican.

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sycasey said:

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Biden is probably winning, but the lack of a big victory margin means Democrats are still f***ed on gerrymandering for the next generation.

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concordtom said:

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LunchTime said:

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Michigan is solid blue. All the missing votes are heavily blue. I think they will get double what they need to tie.

PA looks like a toss-up. Most of the uncounted are blue, but even increasing the lead its very close.

GA looks like its blue.

Biden 286, I think. Postpone the Civil War two years.

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I tell you what - I'm going to chug this last glass of vodka if only so I can fall asleep.
I have no idea how you are postulating that Biden can overcome the deficits in all these states. If so, I'll wake up and the bad dream will have been just that. If I don't wake up, well, it's just as well.

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BearForce2 said:

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LunchTime said:

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Michigan is solid blue. All the missing votes are heavily blue. I think they will get double what they need to tie.

PA looks like a toss-up. Most of the uncounted are blue, but even increasing the lead its very close.

GA looks like its blue.

Biden 286, I think. Postpone the Civil War two years.

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What site are you getting your info from?

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smh said:

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sycasey said:

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Biden is probably winning, but the lack of a big victory margin means Democrats are still f***ed on gerrymandering for the next generation.

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nawww.. decadal redistricting is the duty of all 50 States, not the feds.

# go census

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LunchTime said:

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concordtom said:

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LunchTime said:

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Michigan is solid blue. All the missing votes are heavily blue. I think they will get double what they need to tie.

PA looks like a toss-up. Most of the uncounted are blue, but even increasing the lead its very close.

GA looks like its blue.

Biden 286, I think. Postpone the Civil War two years.

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I tell you what - I'm going to chug this last glass of vodka if only so I can fall asleep.
I have no idea how you are postulating that Biden can overcome the deficits in all these states. If so, I'll wake up and the bad dream will have been just that. If I don't wake up, well, it's just as well.

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Last night I went county by county in the uncalled states.

Then I projected a gain in lead by 5% towards Biden (ie if Biden has a 20% lead in the county, I give him a 21% lead on remaining votes) if his gap is smaller than Hillary's.

I measured how many votes biden would need to flip, and counted how margin in the mia counties.

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okaydo said:

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concordtom said:

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okaydo said:

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From NBC website

First Read: Win or lose, Trump and his politics look like they're here to stay

WASHINGTON Whether or not President Trump ultimately wins or loses and the remaining vote appears to be strong for Joe Biden Trumpism looks like it's here to stay.

Democrats were hoping for a repudiation of Trump; that a GOP loss so big would force Republicans to the negotiating table, to try to compete for votes in urban/suburban America, and to dial down the scorched-earth politics over the last few years.

Instead, even if Trump doesn't win, he might have helped the GOP keep its Senate majority and pick up House seats when Republicans looked destined to lose them.

Bottom line: Even if he's voted out of office as we continue to count the votes in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin Trump and his brand of politics aren't leaving the political scene.

Urban versus rural. Those with college degrees versus those without. Women versus men.

And those divides will affect how this country tries to recover from a pandemic, an economic recession and social/racial tensions across the country.

---

I wonder if Trumpism is like Obamaism.

Trump and Obama were uniquely charismatic presidents who drew a lot of people who wanted to vote for them, and perhaps only for them.

I wonder how many Trump fans will actually vote for a Boring Republican.

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concordtom said:

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Is Peters going to hold onto his Senate seat in Michigan

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Quote:

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John James Republican 2,483,054 49.3%
Gary Peters* Democrat 2,449,043 48.7
Valerie Willis Other 46,049 0.9
Marcia Squier Green 35,646 0.7
Doug Dern Other 18,473 0.4

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smh said:

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concordtom said:

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Is Peters going to hold onto his Senate seat in Michigan

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8:10am nytimes senate reads like this.. (paywall down?)

Quote:

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John James Republican 2,483,054 49.3%
Gary Peters* Democrat 2,449,043 48.7
Valerie Willis Other 46,049 0.9
Marcia Squier Green 35,646 0.7
Doug Dern Other 18,473 0.4

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https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-michigan.html

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sycasey said:

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There are still votes coming in and maybe Peters can flip it, too.

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concordtom said:

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Senate
1 seat is up for election this year

Candidates % Votes Winner
John James 49.3% 2,544,112
Gary Peters * 48.9% 2,522,717
Valerie Willis 0.9% 47,588
Marcia Squier 0.7% 36,229
Doug Dern 0.2% 12,331
* Incumbent

96% of estimated votes counted

Down by 20k?
with not much left to come in?

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sycasey said:

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What's left is heavily, heavily blue (mail ballots from Detroit) so Peters should be able to close that gap.

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Quote:

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Absentee votes by candidate.
Candidate Votes Pct.
Peters 595,951 62.4%
James 345,677 36.2

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BearChemist said:

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That requires 60-65k outstanding mail ballots for Peters to have a shot.

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BearChemist said:

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That requires 60-65k outstanding mail ballots for Peters to have a shot.

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BearChemist said:

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Maine Senate race is hard to tell... They use the rank choice system, so if Collins doesn't get over 50% all the third party candidates' votes will be redistributed. Gideon still has a shot but that depends on the remaining ballots.

If David Purdue doesn't get >50% in the final count that race will also go to January run-off.

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concordtom said:

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Is Peters going to hold onto his Senate seat in Michigan?

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concordtom said:

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Georgia official on CNN:
200,000 absentee ballots left to be counted, about 74,000 in Fulton County (Atlanta).
Biden trails by 100,000 by yahoo's tracker.

Biden would have to win 3-1: 150,000 to 50,000

I don't see it.

.... Further, I don't see GA providing a Dem Senator in any runoff. They continue to lose in GA.

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concordtom said:

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hanky1 said:

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concordtom said:

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Well said, D.

It's the equivalent of the "shy Trump voter". The "shy racist". Closet.

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oh jesus have you guys learned nothing from the 2016 election?

Doesn't look like you'll learn from 2020 either?

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Okay, Hanky - you're so smart.
What am I missing?

That it's cool to screw other women? To grab them? To split up immigrating families as a border deterrent? To incite violence? To F up the environment? .... I can't go on citing all the terrible things about Trump's Party. You tell me.

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BearChemist said:

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concordtom said:

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Georgia official on CNN:
200,000 absentee ballots left to be counted, about 74,000 in Fulton County (Atlanta).
Biden trails by 100,000 by yahoo's tracker.

Biden would have to win 3-1: 150,000 to 50,000

I don't see it.

.... Further, I don't see GA providing a Dem Senator in any runoff. They continue to lose in GA.

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That's the thing, last night the absentee ballots from Milwaukee are ~75% Dem, so 3-1. GA still has a shot, I believe that NYT's model even gives Biden a slight edge based on the known data and remaining precincts.

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BearChemist said:

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FWIW Peters just pulled ahead in the ABC tally.

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wifeisafurd said:

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BearChemist said:

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FWIW Peters just pulled ahead in the ABC tally.

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so where does that leave the Senate, 50 to 49, awaiting Georgia runoff?

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wifeisafurd said:

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BearChemist said:

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FWIW Peters just pulled ahead in the ABC tally.

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so where does that leave the Senate, 50 to 49, awaiting Georgia runoff?

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smh said:

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BearChemist said:

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FWIW Peters just pulled ahead in the ABC tally.

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