BearForce2 said:

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LunchTime said:

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BearForce2 said:

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hello Nevada ?

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What do you see?

Nothing has changed that I can see

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Nothing new, wondering what they're up to.

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GoOskie said:

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I had this convo at work today:

Co Worker (trumpy): I'm glad we kept the Senate. Now Hunter Biden can be investigated.

Me: Oh, come on, man. You don't believe that do you? What a bunch of malarkey.

Co Worker: Yes, I sure do! The FBI hid the laptop.

Me: Didn't the republicans already investigate that?

Co Worker: No.

He continues: Mark my word, Biden will be forced to step down in 5 months. And Harris will become president.
He has dementia! It's really bad. I can spot it, because my mother had it.

Me (wishing I was drinking bleach) ...

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Unit2Sucks said:

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GoOskie said:

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I had this convo at work today:

Co Worker (trumpy): I'm glad we kept the Senate. Now Hunter Biden can be investigated.

Me: Oh, come on, man. You don't believe that do you? What a bunch of malarkey.

Co Worker: Yes, I sure do! The FBI hid the laptop.

Me: Didn't the republicans already investigate that?

Co Worker: No.

He continues: Mark my word, Biden will be forced to step down in 5 months. And Harris will become president.
He has dementia! It's really bad. I can spot it, because my mother had it.

Me (wishing I was drinking bleach) ...

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You work with bearlyamazing? What a small world!

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okaydo said:

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GoOskie said:

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trump still fleecing and inciting.

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GoOskie said:

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I had this convo at work today:

Co Worker (trumpy): I'm glad we kept the Senate. Now Hunter Biden can be investigated.

Me: Oh, come on, man. You don't believe that do you? What a bunch of malarkey.

Co Worker: Yes, I sure do! The FBI hid the laptop.

Me: Didn't the republicans already investigate that?

Co Worker: No.

He continues: Mark my word, Biden will be forced to step down in 5 months. And Harris will become president.
He has dementia! It's really bad. I can spot it, because my mother had it.

Me (wishing I was drinking bleach) ...

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LunchTime said:

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concordtom said:

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Is Peters going to hold onto his Senate seat in Michigan?

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I mark it as a leaning towards D.

It isnt often that there is a split ticket anymore, and wayne county is still only 69% (already ahead 65.6%) while the rest of the state that could go deeper red is already in or small numbers.

It would take a hell of a shift in that county on uncounted votes to give R a lead, and we know what votes are being counted are not likely to shift away from 2/3 D.

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dimitrig said:

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The electoral college needs to go.

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dimitrig said:

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The electoral college needs to go. Biden will probably finish with 6M or maybe even close to 7M more votes than Trump and yet this is considered a close election. On what planet?

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dimitrig said:

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The electoral college needs to go. Biden will probably finish with 6M or maybe even close to 7M more votes than Trump and yet this is considered a close election. On what planet?

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sycasey said:

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dimitrig said:

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The electoral college needs to go. Biden will probably finish with 6M or maybe even close to 7M more votes than Trump and yet this is considered a close election. On what planet?

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Though in fairness, a lot of this is because MI/WI/PA are taking so long to count votes. In a "normal" year there aren't so many mail ballots and this is probably wrapped up on election night.

But yeah, the Electoral College/popular vote split is larger than it's ever been.

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dimitrig said:

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sycasey said:

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dimitrig said:

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The electoral college needs to go. Biden will probably finish with 6M or maybe even close to 7M more votes than Trump and yet this is considered a close election. On what planet?

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Though in fairness, a lot of this is because MI/WI/PA are taking so long to count votes. In a "normal" year there aren't so many mail ballots and this is probably wrapped up on election night.

But yeah, the Electoral College/popular vote split is larger than it's ever been.

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My point is that we are worrying about 100K ballots here and 10K ballots there when Biden is ahead by MILLIONS. It is not close. If Trump pulls this off and Biden wins by 6-7 million in the popular vote I will be livid.

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golden sloth said:

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dimitrig said:

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sycasey said:

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dimitrig said:

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The electoral college needs to go. Biden will probably finish with 6M or maybe even close to 7M more votes than Trump and yet this is considered a close election. On what planet?

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Though in fairness, a lot of this is because MI/WI/PA are taking so long to count votes. In a "normal" year there aren't so many mail ballots and this is probably wrapped up on election night.

But yeah, the Electoral College/popular vote split is larger than it's ever been.

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My point is that we are worrying about 100K ballots here and 10K ballots there when Biden is ahead by MILLIONS. It is not close. If Trump pulls this off and Biden wins by 6-7 million in the popular vote I will be livid.

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The only way to change the system is to win in the system, and that makes it hard.

Some good news is that there seemed to be a lot more battleground states this cycle. The past several elections it seemed like it was Ohio, Iowa and Florida, which were unexpectedly joined by Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania last cycle. This cycle North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nebraska's second district were all competitive. That is 10 or so states, and I think its good that the parties need to focus on an increasing number of states in a variety of regions as it forces them to campaign to a broader swathe of people rather than one or small subsects of one or two states.

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sycasey said:

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dimitrig said:

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The electoral college needs to go. Biden will probably finish with 6M or maybe even close to 7M more votes than Trump and yet this is considered a close election. On what planet?

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Though in fairness, a lot of this is because MI/WI/PA are taking so long to count votes. In a "normal" year there aren't so many mail ballots and this is probably wrapped up on election night.

But yeah, the Electoral College/popular vote split is larger than it's ever been.

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Big C said:

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sycasey said:

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dimitrig said:

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The electoral college needs to go. Biden will probably finish with 6M or maybe even close to 7M more votes than Trump and yet this is considered a close election. On what planet?

---

Though in fairness, a lot of this is because MI/WI/PA are taking so long to count votes. In a "normal" year there aren't so many mail ballots and this is probably wrapped up on election night.

But yeah, the Electoral College/popular vote split is larger than it's ever been.

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You historians out there (or people even older than me):

In 1960, when Kennedy won the popular vote over Nixon by a paltry112,000 votes (I forget the EC margins), how long until they knew the results?

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dimitrig said:

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golden sloth said:

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dimitrig said:

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sycasey said:

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dimitrig said:

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The electoral college needs to go. Biden will probably finish with 6M or maybe even close to 7M more votes than Trump and yet this is considered a close election. On what planet?

---

Though in fairness, a lot of this is because MI/WI/PA are taking so long to count votes. In a "normal" year there aren't so many mail ballots and this is probably wrapped up on election night.

But yeah, the Electoral College/popular vote split is larger than it's ever been.

---

My point is that we are worrying about 100K ballots here and 10K ballots there when Biden is ahead by MILLIONS. It is not close. If Trump pulls this off and Biden wins by 6-7 million in the popular vote I will be livid.

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The only way to change the system is to win in the system, and that makes it hard.

Some good news is that there seemed to be a lot more battleground states this cycle. The past several elections it seemed like it was Ohio, Iowa and Florida, which were unexpectedly joined by Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania last cycle. This cycle North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nebraska's second district were all competitive. That is 10 or so states, and I think its good that the parties need to focus on an increasing number of states in a variety of regions as it forces them to campaign to a broader swathe of people rather than one or small subsects of one or two states.

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Is it good news? Maybe, maybe not. It seems like the GOP is making more headway than the Dems are. Florida and Ohio were swing states. Now they are reliably red states. Will Georgia or North Carolina move the same way? It looks like it, but they are lagging.

Maybe part of it is that the Dems have just run terrible candidates. Obama and Clinton made it look so easy. Trump, like him or not, has a lot more charisma than Bob Dole or Mitt Romney.

Dems need a really charismatic candidate. I hate to say it, but could it be Gavin Newsom?



I would say Colorado and Virginia have moved from swing states to reliably blue.

I used to think the demographic shift towards a majority minority would yield a change in voting patterns. Now I'm thinking the rise and fall of cities in the various states plays a larger role.. Colorado and Virginia would be two examples of Denver and DC growing and influencing subsequent voting patterns. Detroit and Milwaukee are cities in decline (or surrounded by small cities in decline) and therefore became more Conservative. Atlanta has been rapidly growing as has Phoenix, and both seem to be trending more liberal. None of this is anything really that new, but I just wonder if that is probably the larger driver in voting shifts, as I'm curious if minorities in rural parts of the country assimilate into that rural culture and develop the Conservative values held there.

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BearChemist said:

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GA gap is down to 18k, with 50k absentee ballots left. And there are also oversea ballots as well as cured ballots. I would guess Biden has 60% chance to win, nonetheless GA will be recounted like WI.

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