sycasey said:

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Cal88 said:

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sycasey said:

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dimitrig said:

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BearForce2 said:

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Clinton didn't do well in the Midwest and Biden is doing even worse. To quote the late great Chick Hearn, Biden's chances are slim and none and slim just left the building.

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It's really not clear, since mail-in votes haven't been counted and are expected to be heavily blue. So we'll have to wait and see.

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The Great Pumpkin is not going to come.

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Just wanted to highlight another instance of Cal88 being wrong here. The mail-in votes were indeed as blue as I expected.

In fairness, there has been a lot of room for people to be wrong in this thread, on both sides of the aisle. The result is very much in the middle of our expectations. But I did say Biden's lead was probably big enough to withstand a polling miss in Trump's direction, and that appears to be holding up.

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Nevada is not a given, with only mail ballots remaining. Apparently, the State will not release more results until Thursday. Division between Clark County (Biden territory) and other (read rural) counties is around 50/50. Expert in article I read said it will be a squeaker, probably Biden, but very close.

Nevada still looks very close. How safe is it for Biden at this point? (Edit: Had not yet read Wife's post.) On TV, they are not addressing this situation sufficiently, IMO. Eastern bias?

Last time, you told a story about your dad.
Could you please spell out clearly what the REAL PROBLEM is?

wifeisafurd said:

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sycasey said:

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Cal88 said:

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sycasey said:

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dimitrig said:

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BearForce2 said:

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Clinton didn't do well in the Midwest and Biden is doing even worse. To quote the late great Chick Hearn, Biden's chances are slim and none and slim just left the building.

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It's really not clear, since mail-in votes haven't been counted and are expected to be heavily blue. So we'll have to wait and see.

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The Great Pumpkin is not going to come.

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Just wanted to highlight another instance of Cal88 being wrong here. The mail-in votes were indeed as blue as I expected.

In fairness, there has been a lot of room for people to be wrong in this thread, on both sides of the aisle. The result is very much in the middle of our expectations. But I did say Biden's lead was probably big enough to withstand a polling miss in Trump's direction, and that appears to be holding up.

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Nevada is not a given, with only main ballots remaining. Apparently State will not release more results unit Thursday. Division between Clark County (Biden territory) and other (read rural) counties is around 50/50. Expert in article I read said it will be a squeaker, probably Biden, but very close.

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The thing is that they're mail-in ballots, which (as we've seen) have trended very blue. Most likely Biden expands his lead.

"It's not who votes that counts. It's who counts the vote." - Joseph Stalin

Either a clerk error or a R-friendly batch of ballots have knocked Peters 10k behind James.

bearister said:

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It is like a thread during a Cal basketball game when 3/4 of the posters have Cal written off....and then Cal wins.

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Oh - look who woke up!!!

Yes, you got me on this one.

So, looking a few minutes ago, I now think 270-290 for Biden

NV is solid, Michigan is way solid as I predicted (no idea why it isnt called, except for some drama), Wisconsin is called and solid, Arizona is called and solid (Trump needs almost 100k votes and will get -11k net after its done), so Biden already won.


But, just for giggles: NC shows me Biden needs about 75k votes but will only get 32k net, and Ga will need 77k and will net only 50k more. Obviously small numbers, so maybe we get a surprise. I dont think so. PA looks like Trumptown, with 350k votes needed and only 150k net on the way. But none of those states will matter anyway.

Big C said:

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Nevada still looks very close. How safe is it for Biden at this point? (Edit: Had not yet read Wife's post.) On TV, they are not addressing this situation sufficiently, IMO. Eastern bias?

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Nevada has about 200k votes outstanding: 180k in the two blue counties, 150k in the more blue county. Trump is ahead of 2016 in the bluer county, but WAY behind in the other blue county. I think 104k to Biden, 93k to Trump based on whats left to vote and where.

It is less close than it looks IMO.

Also, FWIW, I know no one cares, but Nevada is now the first state to protect Gay Marriage in its Constitution. Nice mix of libertarian in most of the landmass and progressives in the city.


My Methodology if it matters: I am guessing Biden gains 10.5k by the end.

tRump is a man that makes emotionally charged ALLEGATIONS which play well on Fox News and Social Media and are music to the ears of his base.

The problem is that tRump has never fared well in court because in legal actions the ALLEGATIONS are what you put in your pleadings but to prevail and secure the winning court order or judgment, your ALLEGATIONS have to be supported by FACTS that meet the burden of proof.

tRump has always been long on ALLEGATIONS and short on FACTS.

Coming down to Michigan and Nevada?

BearForce2 said:

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Coming down to Michigan and Nevada?

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Michigan is so blue it would would be a a miracle to pull red again. Basically the whole state has voted EXCEPT Blue strongholds and a tiny county up north that gave Trump 4k net in 2016.


My mickeymouse projection would have to be 100k in the other direction. ie of the 314k or so left, Trump would almost have to win detroit after trailing by 35 points.


*I only check on counties with significant population and enough uncounted to move the needle. As you can see, there are a TON of tiny counties missing, but they are very low population and high reporting. a few hundred total votes uncounted.

LunchTime said:

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But, just for giggles: NC shows me Biden needs about 75k votes but will only get 32k net, and Ga will need 77k and will net only 50k more. Obviously small numbers, so maybe we get a surprise. I dont think so. PA looks like Trumptown, with 350k votes needed and only 150k net on the way. But none of those states will matter anyway.

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Just FYI, the election modelers I follow disagree about GA and PA. In fact, they think PA is practically in the bag for Biden based on how the mail votes are coming in.

And GA also still on track for a narrow Biden win.

Some fivethirtyeight staff think Nate Cohn overestimated the absentee ballots in the Philly area, like with 100k deviaion.

sycasey said:

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LunchTime said:

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But, just for giggles: NC shows me Biden needs about 75k votes but will only get 32k net, and Ga will need 77k and will net only 50k more. Obviously small numbers, so maybe we get a surprise. I dont think so. PA looks like Trumptown, with 350k votes needed and only 150k net on the way. But none of those states will matter anyway.

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Just FYI, the election modelers I follow disagree about GA and PA. In fact, they think PA is practically in the bag for Biden based on how the mail votes are coming in.

And GA also still on track for a narrow Biden win.

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I agree with him (second tweet obv) that PA and Michigan wont be close. Michigan is so far blue it shocks me no one has called it. I saw that last night when I posted it here while it was still showing deep red.

GA looks close, but wont matter. FWIW, the county with the most outstanding votes is Deklab and they already have Biden with a 67 point lead. Lets say we mark 100% of the remaining votes for Biden and then mark Chatham at triple Bidens current lead (to a 40 point lead), and Dougherty at double his current lead (to a 60 point lead); That would just make it close. So I dont know that I agree with his math.

Also, PA wont matter.

BearChemist said:

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Some fivethirtyeight staff think Nate Cohn overestimated the absentee ballots in the Philly area, like with 100k deviaion.

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Not sure about that, but Nate Silver posted on their blog and seems to agree with the general consensus that Biden is favored to win in MI, NV, AZ, PA, and (narrowly) GA. He's not as strong on PA as some of the other guys.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020-election-results-coverage/

(Nov. 4, 4:31 PM)

Quote:

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But here's where the presidential race stands from most likely Trump win to least likely Trump win:

North Carolina. Trump leads by 1.4 points or about 77,000 votes, but mail ballots can arrive after Election Day in North Carolina, so perhaps 5 percent of the vote is still outstanding. The mail vote should be pretty blue in North Carolina, but is it enough to flip the state? Probably not, according to The Upshot's needle, which gave Biden about a 15 percent chance in North Carolina before it was frozen. I'd call this one Likely Trump, although 15 percent chances aren't zero, obviously!

Georgia. Trump leads by 78,000 votes without around 200,000 votes outstanding (there's some uncertainty over the exact number). That seems like a tall order for Biden, but the remaining vote is expected to be very blue: mail votes from blue counties plus some Election Day votes from predominantly Black precincts in blue counties. The Upshot's needle actually had Biden slightly favored to pull it off as of last night. We'll know more soon. Let's say Tossup but you could force me into Lean Biden if you told me I had to make a pick.

Pennsylvania. As expected, far more uncounted votes here than elsewhere, mostly mail votes that should be quite Democratic-leaning, though. There are too many outstanding ballots for us to be in the endgame where we can game out exact scenarios, but in counties that have completed reporting, Biden looks to be hitting the targets he needs. Even with the Trump campaign filing a number of lawsuits, the margin is tightening quickly enough that I think this belongs in Lean Biden.

Arizona. We may need to do a longer post on Arizona later. What's left to count is mostly mail votes that were returned late in the process on Monday or Tuesday. There's some ambiguity about how many ballots this actually is; Edison Research seems to think around 450,000. If so, Trump would need to win those votes by 21 points to overtake Biden's current 93,000-vote lead. They're disrupted fairly evenly throughout the state.

Wait outstanding mail votes? Shouldn't those be good for Biden, as in other states? Well, not necessarily, because Republicans have a fairly strong mail voting program in Arizona and this is the key part the mail ballots that were returned later in the process (the ones yet to be continued) were significantly redder than the ones that came in earlier on, as Democrats sent their votes in early. For instance, the party registration of the votes that came in Monday and Tuesday were: 23 percent Democratic, 44 percent Republican, and 33 percent independent or other parties. That is to say, a 21-point GOP edge, which would put Trump on track to tie things up.
But here's the bad news for Trump. Party registration may be a misleading indicator in Arizona. It has a lot of ancestral Republicans who have now turned into swing voters. Biden also had a big lead among independents in polls. And earlier batches of mail ballots were considerably stronger for Biden than party registration alone would suggest. So probably these ballots are going to come in more for Trump than for Biden, but not as strongly as he needs.

There's also the fact that two other news organizations, the Associated Press and Fox News, have called the state for Biden. I'd assume they've put more work into looking into this than I have, so that shifts my priors a bit, but you never know and you will get incorrect calls occasionally. Overall, I'd say this is Likely Biden but I don't think the state should have been called yet.

Nevada. This one's a bit more straightforward. Biden leads by only 0.6 percent or about 7,500 votes. But what's remaining should be pretty good for him. It's all mail-in ballots that were either received late in the process or which are still coming in in Nevada, mail ballots can be received by Nov. 10 provided they're postmarked by Election Day. The mail ballots were quite blue in Nevada by party registration, much more so than in Arizona, including votes that arrived relatively late in the process. Likely Biden.

Michigan. Biden is ahead, leading by around 61,000 votes or 1.2 percentage points. His lead has been growing and given what votes are outstanding, is likely to grow further. Likely Biden.

Wisconsin. No known votes left to be counted. The Trump campaign says it will seek a recount, but recounts rarely change results, and certainly not with something on the magnitude of Biden's 20,000-vote lead. Biden is the "apparent winner," per ABC News.

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BearChemist said:

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Some fivethirtyeight staff think Nate Cohn overestimated the absentee ballots in the Philly area, like with 100k deviaion.

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There are about a million uncounted ballots, and a 350k lead.

616k of those uncounted vote are in Biden country.

If he got 80% of the remaining votes (a 60 point spread), in all but the largest county, he would need 90% in Philly, just to get close.

But with 80+% of the vote counted in those other counties, he only has a 17 point lead in them... It would be a hell of a shift to have the rest of the votes come in at 80/20. Maybe they do. I have heard in Philly 16 of 17 ballots were mailed to democrats. Thats pretty damn close to 100%


Again, it is irrelevant. NYT is admitting Michigan is Bidens. Thats the game.

It was interesting that last night FOX being the first outlet to call AZ for Biden. (Even now ABC has not called it.) By calling AZ and NE-2 before Trump's WH speech, FOX effectively prevented Trump from declaring victory outright, because WI, MI, AZ, NV and NE-2 give Biden a 270 electoral votes floor.

BearChemist said:

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It was interesting that last night FOX being the first outlet to call AZ for Biden. (Even now ABC has not called it.) By calling AZ and NE-2 before Trump's WH speech, FOX effectively prevented Trump from declaring victory outright, because WI, MI, AZ, NV and NE-2 give Biden a 270 electoral votes floor.

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From Sept. 24:
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/09/can-trump-supreme-court-decide-election.html



From Sept. 27:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/27/business/media/trump-election-fox-news.html

hello Nevada ?

Yes, apples and oranges. But Reagan only got 50.75% of the vote in 1980.

okaydo said:

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BearChemist said:

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It was interesting that last night FOX being the first outlet to call AZ for Biden. (Even now ABC has not called it.) By calling AZ and NE-2 before Trump's WH speech, FOX effectively prevented Trump from declaring victory outright, because WI, MI, AZ, NV and NE-2 give Biden a 270 electoral votes floor.

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From Sept. 24:
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/09/can-trump-supreme-court-decide-election.html



From Sept. 27:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/27/business/media/trump-election-fox-news.html

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Thats interesting. Fox was the first to call Az.

okaydo said:

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Yes, apples and oranges. But Reagan only got 50.75% of the vote in 1980.

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Several million votes left right? I would expect Biden to end up closer to 4% lead if the blue shift continues like it did in 2016 but maybe we don't have as many votes still left to count in CA this time around?

BearForce2 said:

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hello Nevada ?

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What do you see?

Nothing has changed that I can see

LunchTime said:

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BearForce2 said:

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hello Nevada ?

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What do you see?

Nothing has changed that I can see

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Nothing new, wondering what they're up to.

Trump files for recount in Whisky...

I feel this is fitting

okaydo said:

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lol. rough.

" With Joe Biden closing in on 270 electoral votes, the Trump campaign filed a flurry of ballot-related lawsuits that legal experts say are unlikely to produce a Bush v. Gore sequel.

Biden will win Wisconsin, the AP projected this afternoon.
Biden will also win Michigan, the AP projected.
Biden can clear 270 electoral votes by hanging on in Nevada and Arizona or winning Pennsylvania.
Biden sought to portray himself as president-elect and healer-in-chief in an afternoon speech that included nods to Barack Obama, Trump and swing voters, Axios' Margaret Talev tells me.

Biden said that "power can't be taken or asserted" and he wouldn't let Americans be "bullied," adding, "Every vote must be counted."
"I'm not here to declare that we've won," he said. "But I am here to report that when the count is finished, we believe we will be the winners."
Biden compared his margins to Trump's narrow 2016 margins, noted how unusual it is to beat an incumbent, and noted the Biden-Harris ticket is on track to eclipse the popular vote totals of any ticket in U.S. history.

Americans must stop treating political opponents as enemies, he said. "We are not enemies. ... I will govern as an American president."
Between the lines: Experts say they simply don't yet see strong vehicles emerging for a scenario where Supreme Court justices decide the next president, although it's too early to reach firm conclusions while votes are still being counted, Axios' Sam Baker and Stef Kight report.

In Wisconsin, the Trump campaign has already said it intends to seek a recount. The state's 2016 recount ended up only changing 131 votes. Biden's current margin is more than 20,000 votes.

In Michigan, the campaign is suing for access to vote-counting operations, and to stop the counting until then. They are filing a similar suit in Pennsylvania.
In Pennsylvania, the biggest controversy is the state's decision to count mail-in ballots that were mailed by Nov. 3, but arrived later. A challenge to that extension is already pending at the Supreme Court.

Four conservative Supreme Court justices have already expressed deep misgivings about extended ballot deadlines, and the court could take up a challenge to Pennsylvania's extension at any time.

But that's only likely to happen, experts said, if those late-arriving votes are the tipping point in Pennsylvania and if Pennsylvania is the tipping point nationwide.
While the overall number of mail-in ballots this year is huge, the number of late-arriving mail-in ballots is believed to be pretty small." Axios