Final Election Prediction

122,370 Views | 1183 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by concordtom
GoOskie
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Georgia: Biden up 1097 with 5267 to be counted.

Pennsylvania: trump up 18,049 with 176,455 to be counted.

No results from AZ in last 8 hours.

No results from NEV in last 19 hours.
This just in: Republicans find another whistleblower who claims Hillary's emails were proven to be on Hunter's laptop while Obama spied on tRump as he sat (shat?) upon his golden toilet. Gym Jordan afraid whistle blower may be in danger of abduction by aliens in cahoots with Democrats.
BearChemist
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Last PA batch puts Biden up 6.5k, not looking back from here. Decision Desk HQ has called the presidential race.
B.A. Bearacus
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At least some signs that the news side is acting responsibly.

B.A. Bearacus
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golden sloth
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B.A. Bearacus said:

At least some signs that the news side is acting responsibly.




The Republicans maintaining the senate probably makes it easier for them to turn on Trump as the Senate prevents Biden from doing anything substantial. It wouldn't surprise me if this is the beginning of the split between Trump and the other Republicans (it was always a transactional relationship for the republicans).
B.A. Bearacus
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sycasey
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B.A. Bearacus
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B.A. Bearacus
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dajo9
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The American people: We should decide the Presidency

Republicans: No, we are not a democracy. We are a Republic. The states decide.

The American people: Ok, we did it your way. The states have decided Biden should be President.

Republicans: No, the Courts will decide this with our Judges

The American people: That doesn't seem fair but the Courts have ruled against Trump and so Biden should be President

Republicans: No, Trump gets to decide
NYCGOBEARS
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B.A. Bearacus
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dajo9
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dajo9 said:

Put them here for posterity and future bragging rights or being shamed.

I've got Biden with a 7% PV margin and winning the Electoral College 323 - 215.

In my view, there are 6 battleground states (AZ, FL, GA, NC, PA, TX) and Biden only needs one of them to win. I think Trump gets FL and TX.

The story of the election will be youth turnout and a surge in college educated whites, relative to non-college whites combining to give Biden a decisive victory and mandate.
I posted this Sunday night. Seems to be very accurate from an Electoral College standpoint. Things could change, but here on Friday morning things point to me being wrong only on one state (NC) and two congressional districts (NE-1 and ME-2). It is looking like 306 EC votes for Biden instead of my predicted 323.

I overstated the popular vote by a few percentage points (consistent with the polling error) and did not recognize the amount of Republican votes coming out.

It was a wave election - but both sides had a wave.
okaydo
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bearister
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"I'm not the smartest guy in the world. My wife says I'm the second smartest but she claims there are 80 guys tied for first.

I don't think this proves anything and, as a matter of fact I don't even know what it means. It's just one of those things that gets in my head and keeps rolling around in there like a marble....but if the mail in ballots are fraudulent, how come the Republican candidates on the undercard did so well in the election?"
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I got some friends inside
going4roses
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bearister said:




"I'm not the smartest guy in the world. My wife says I'm the second smartest but she claims there are 80 guys tied for first.

I don't think this proves anything and, as a matter of fact I don't even know what it means. It's just one of those things that gets in my head and keeps rolling around in there like a marble....but if the mail in ballots are fraudulent, how come the Republican candidates on the undercard did so well in the election?"


Columbo !!!
I had a friend at high school (Albany) who had the columbo mannerisms down pat
okaydo
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sycasey
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dajo9 said:

dajo9 said:

Put them here for posterity and future bragging rights or being shamed.

I've got Biden with a 7% PV margin and winning the Electoral College 323 - 215.

In my view, there are 6 battleground states (AZ, FL, GA, NC, PA, TX) and Biden only needs one of them to win. I think Trump gets FL and TX.

The story of the election will be youth turnout and a surge in college educated whites, relative to non-college whites combining to give Biden a decisive victory and mandate.
I posted this Sunday night. Seems to be very accurate from an Electoral College standpoint. Things could change, but here on Friday morning things point to me being wrong only on one state (NC) and two congressional districts (NE-1 and ME-2). It is looking like 306 EC votes for Biden instead of my predicted 323.

I overstated the popular vote by a few percentage points (consistent with the polling error) and did not recognize the amount of Republican votes coming out.

It was a wave election - but both sides had a wave.

Yup, the thing that continues to surprise is Trump's ability to turn out new voters (which obviously are hard to poll). Happened in the 2018 midterm as well, but both then and now he still got swamped by people voting against him.

Now the question is if these people keep showing up without Trump on the ballot.
smh
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OneKeg said:

Georgia truly has been the Zeno's Paradox of vote counts.
thanks for the obscure mention OneKeg (new to me)..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zeno%27s_paradoxes
Quote:

Zeno's paradoxes are a set of philosophical problems generally thought to have been devised by Greek philosopher Zeno of Elea (c. 490430 BC) to support Parmenides' doctrine that contrary to the evidence of one's senses, the belief in pluralityand change is mistaken, and in particular that motion is nothing but an illusion. It is usually assumed, based on Plato'sParmenides (128ad), that Zeno took on the project of creating these paradoxes because other philosophers had created paradoxes against Parmenides' view. Thus Plato has Zeno say the purpose of the paradoxes "is to show that their hypothesis that existences are many, if properly followed up, leads to still more absurd results than the hypothesis that they are one."[url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zeno%27s_paradoxes#cite_note-1][1][/url] Plato has Socrates claim that Zeno and Parmenides were essentially arguing exactly the same point.[url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zeno%27s_paradoxes#cite_note-2][2][/url]

Some of Zeno's nine surviving paradoxes (preserved in Aristotle's Physics[url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zeno%27s_paradoxes#cite_note-aristotle-3][3][/url][url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zeno%27s_paradoxes#cite_note-4][4][/url] and Simplicius's commentary thereon) are essentially equivalent to one another. Aristotle offered a refutation of some of them.[url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zeno%27s_paradoxes#cite_note-aristotle-3][3][/url] Three of the strongest and most famousthat of Achilles and the tortoise, the Dichotomy argument, and that of an arrow in flightare presented in detail below.
# gob ears
going4roses
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smh
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OneKeg said:

PA has a chance to surpass the margin that would require a recount. And it would get Biden above 270 on its own. Hoping for that overnight or early Friday.
can't we wish away recounts as soon as states of Arizona or Nevada get us there?

B.A. Bearacus
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okaydo
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okaydo
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I can't wait to read Trump's letter to Biden.

okaydo
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B.A. Bearacus
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blungld
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B.A. Bearacus said:


And of course these Republicans are ALWAYS equally interested in making sure that Liberals feelings are respected and given space to be worked out, and that their thoughts or allegation are always heard and worked through.

Oh wait, the Trumpers LAUGHED at upset Liberals and made it a joyful mantra. Liberal tears and owning the Liberals and calling them snowflakes was considered fun and good old fashioned tribal bonding. But of course, the Liberals are now supposed to be respectful and humor all allegations and their non-snowflake sensitivity.

How do these people live in hypocrite world and not see it?

Here's another big difference, I want the president I elected to govern for all Americans and would want him ousted if he doesn't. But the GOP thinks government is just for them. The generosity and respect is so one way,
The Bear will not quilt, the Bear will not dye!
B.A. Bearacus
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OneKeg
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smh said:

OneKeg said:

Georgia truly has been the Zeno's Paradox of vote counts.
thanks for the obscure mention OneKeg (new to me)..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zeno%27s_paradoxes
Quote:

Zeno's paradoxes are a set of philosophical problems generally thought to have been devised by Greek philosopher Zeno of Elea (c. 490430 BC) to support Parmenides' doctrine that contrary to the evidence of one's senses, the belief in pluralityand change is mistaken, and in particular that motion is nothing but an illusion. It is usually assumed, based on Plato'sParmenides (128ad), that Zeno took on the project of creating these paradoxes because other philosophers had created paradoxes against Parmenides' view. Thus Plato has Zeno say the purpose of the paradoxes "is to show that their hypothesis that existences are many, if properly followed up, leads to still more absurd results than the hypothesis that they are one."[url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zeno%27s_paradoxes#cite_note-1][1][/url] Plato has Socrates claim that Zeno and Parmenides were essentially arguing exactly the same point.[url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zeno%27s_paradoxes#cite_note-2][2][/url]

Some of Zeno's nine surviving paradoxes (preserved in Aristotle's Physics[url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zeno%27s_paradoxes#cite_note-aristotle-3][3][/url][url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zeno%27s_paradoxes#cite_note-4][4][/url] and Simplicius's commentary thereon) are essentially equivalent to one another. Aristotle offered a refutation of some of them.[url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zeno%27s_paradoxes#cite_note-aristotle-3][3][/url] Three of the strongest and most famousthat of Achilles and the tortoise, the Dichotomy argument, and that of an arrow in flightare presented in detail below.
# gob ears
Ha right - but what I meant specifically by Zeno's election (in GA):

One of Zeno's paradoxes is that if you set out to get somewhere, you can never get there. Because first you have to get halfway there. Then of the remaining distance you have to cover half of that. Then half of the remaining distance and so on.

Or if you are trying to catch someone slower than you, you can never do it. Because first you have to get to where they are now. But by then they've moved, so you have to get to where they have moved to, but by then they've moved again and so on.

That's what Georgia felt like all last night.

Glad Biden is ahead now by a tiny margin at least. GA will go to recount along with WI (if Trump forces it which of course he will).

But I am hoping:
- PA can get out of recount territory (I think it will)
- NV stays out of recount territory (I think it will)
- AZ is a win for Biden (I think it will be) and stays out of recount territory (not sure)

Obviously Biden doesn't need all these states, but the bigger buffer, the better with all the shenanigans that may happen in the next couple months.
B.A. Bearacus
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Unleash the cheetahs.

B.A. Bearacus
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Anyone having a cheesesteak later?

AunBear89
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B.A. Bearacus said:

Anyone having a cheesesteak later?


Damn fine idea, B.A.! I think I will! What's the preferred beer of Philly to accompany a cheesesteak?
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -- (maybe) Benjamin Disraeli, popularized by Mark Twain
calpoly
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B.A. Bearacus said:

Anyone having a cheesesteak later?


The cheesesteak will go well with a nice cold beer!
AunBear89
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AunBear89 said:

B.A. Bearacus said:

Anyone having a cheesesteak later?


Damn fine idea, B.A.! I think I will! What's the preferred beer of Philly to accompany a cheesesteak?

From Craft Beer Cellar: " A crisp, hoppy, assertive IPA like Dogfish's 60 Minute is needed to cut through all of the fatty, cheesey deliciousness of a Philly cheesesteak (no matter if your preference is whiz or provolone, with or without onions)."

Dogfish is in Delaware - so PERFECT!
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -- (maybe) Benjamin Disraeli, popularized by Mark Twain
B.A. Bearacus
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