Dajo9's Nov 1st thread..
> Final Election Prediction; Put them here for posterity and future bragging rights or being shamed.

waay back-dated prediction..

Defense industry could take a big hit from the GOP being out of office - Axios


https://www.axios.com/defense-industry-worries-biden-5103fd34-c3a0-4759-87c2-d3c2f0646b27.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top


Raise your hand if you think the tRump Crime Family made some "brokerage fees" from the Military/Industrial Complex.

B.A. Bearacus said:

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... Wayne County MI finally certifies despite Republican rat-f-ing attempts ...

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bearister said:

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Defense industry could take a big hit from the GOP being out of office - Axios


https://www.axios.com/defense-industry-worries-biden-5103fd34-c3a0-4759-87c2-d3c2f0646b27.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top

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That's not going to happen

Kaworu said:

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bearister said:

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Defense industry could take a big hit from the GOP being out of office - Axios
https://www.axios.com/defense-industry-worries-biden-5103fd34-c3a0-4759-87c2-d3c2f0646b27.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top

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That's not going to happen

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excellent

bearister said:

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So are inadequate CEO's at tech companies

bearister said:

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DEEP STATE FAKE NEWS!

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These three are probably infinitely more qualified to run our country than any Lib, and have a lot of wisdom behind their ammunition facade that allows them to see issues clearly and deduce accurate assessments of policy and politicians. Nothing screams "I'm reasonable" like these guys.

OaktownBear said:

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I have to say, I spent election night on the Fivethirtyeight blog, keeping track with the NYtimes, and watching CNN and MSNBC. Just read through much of the election night posting here and it is absolutely hilarious how little people understood the numbers real time. The info was out there if you wanted it. Fivethirtyeight had done a comprehensive piece about where states would be counting Republican votes first and Democratic votes second and vice versa. That Trump was going to come back in Ohio was obvious and that Biden was going to come back in Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn, and Georgia was obvious as well. It might not have been obvious that Biden was going to win all those states, but it was obvious that he would make a charge.

I must admit that seeing Cal88 spend half the night gloating because he as usual didn't do any reasonable research, and then see him literally stop posting as soon as the numbers started to turn, and then literally disappear ever since is particularly funny. His second to last post was to say the Great Pumpkin wasn't coming in a taunt that blue votes were not going to come in late in the midwestern states. His last post is to post hour old data from a county in Pennsylvania showing Biden losing by 19 points when the exact same source had posted 25 minutes before that Biden had caught up and was leading. Classic Cal88 solid gold.

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Did you spend time talking about why all their polling was wrong?

Kaworu said:

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OaktownBear said:

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I have to say, I spent election night on the Fivethirtyeight blog, keeping track with the NYtimes, and watching CNN and MSNBC. Just read through much of the election night posting here and it is absolutely hilarious how little people understood the numbers real time. The info was out there if you wanted it. Fivethirtyeight had done a comprehensive piece about where states would be counting Republican votes first and Democratic votes second and vice versa. That Trump was going to come back in Ohio was obvious and that Biden was going to come back in Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn, and Georgia was obvious as well. It might not have been obvious that Biden was going to win all those states, but it was obvious that he would make a charge.

I must admit that seeing Cal88 spend half the night gloating because he as usual didn't do any reasonable research, and then see him literally stop posting as soon as the numbers started to turn, and then literally disappear ever since is particularly funny. His second to last post was to say the Great Pumpkin wasn't coming in a taunt that blue votes were not going to come in late in the midwestern states. His last post is to post hour old data from a county in Pennsylvania showing Biden losing by 19 points when the exact same source had posted 25 minutes before that Biden had caught up and was leading. Classic Cal88 solid gold.

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Did you spend time talking about why all their polling was wrong?

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"All" the polling? 538 predicted that Biden would be able to withstand a 2016 sized error in Trump's favor. They were right.

Polls can be wrong, and responsible outlets will make that clear. But they still provide a useful baseline for a range of possible outcomes.

OaktownBear said:

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Kaworu said:

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OaktownBear said:

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I have to say, I spent election night on the Fivethirtyeight blog, keeping track with the NYtimes, and watching CNN and MSNBC. Just read through much of the election night posting here and it is absolutely hilarious how little people understood the numbers real time. The info was out there if you wanted it. Fivethirtyeight had done a comprehensive piece about where states would be counting Republican votes first and Democratic votes second and vice versa. That Trump was going to come back in Ohio was obvious and that Biden was going to come back in Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn, and Georgia was obvious as well. It might not have been obvious that Biden was going to win all those states, but it was obvious that he would make a charge.

I must admit that seeing Cal88 spend half the night gloating because he as usual didn't do any reasonable research, and then see him literally stop posting as soon as the numbers started to turn, and then literally disappear ever since is particularly funny. His second to last post was to say the Great Pumpkin wasn't coming in a taunt that blue votes were not going to come in late in the midwestern states. His last post is to post hour old data from a county in Pennsylvania showing Biden losing by 19 points when the exact same source had posted 25 minutes before that Biden had caught up and was leading. Classic Cal88 solid gold.

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Did you spend time talking about why all their polling was wrong?

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You do realize they don't do polling, right.

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They do post aggregates of polls there, do they not?

sycasey said:

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Kaworu said:

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OaktownBear said:

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I have to say, I spent election night on the Fivethirtyeight blog, keeping track with the NYtimes, and watching CNN and MSNBC. Just read through much of the election night posting here and it is absolutely hilarious how little people understood the numbers real time. The info was out there if you wanted it. Fivethirtyeight had done a comprehensive piece about where states would be counting Republican votes first and Democratic votes second and vice versa. That Trump was going to come back in Ohio was obvious and that Biden was going to come back in Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn, and Georgia was obvious as well. It might not have been obvious that Biden was going to win all those states, but it was obvious that he would make a charge.

I must admit that seeing Cal88 spend half the night gloating because he as usual didn't do any reasonable research, and then see him literally stop posting as soon as the numbers started to turn, and then literally disappear ever since is particularly funny. His second to last post was to say the Great Pumpkin wasn't coming in a taunt that blue votes were not going to come in late in the midwestern states. His last post is to post hour old data from a county in Pennsylvania showing Biden losing by 19 points when the exact same source had posted 25 minutes before that Biden had caught up and was leading. Classic Cal88 solid gold.

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Did you spend time talking about why all their polling was wrong?

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"All" the polling? 538 predicted that Biden would be able to withstand a 2016 sized error in Trump's favor. They were right.

Polls can be wrong, and responsible outlets will make that clear. But they still provide a useful baseline for a range of possible outcomes.

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https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/why-were-polls-so-wrong-in-the-2020-election-we-asked-some-pollsters/ar-BB1aJSk7

OaktownBear said:

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Kaworu said:

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OaktownBear said:

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Kaworu said:

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OaktownBear said:

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I have to say, I spent election night on the Fivethirtyeight blog, keeping track with the NYtimes, and watching CNN and MSNBC. Just read through much of the election night posting here and it is absolutely hilarious how little people understood the numbers real time. The info was out there if you wanted it. Fivethirtyeight had done a comprehensive piece about where states would be counting Republican votes first and Democratic votes second and vice versa. That Trump was going to come back in Ohio was obvious and that Biden was going to come back in Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn, and Georgia was obvious as well. It might not have been obvious that Biden was going to win all those states, but it was obvious that he would make a charge.

I must admit that seeing Cal88 spend half the night gloating because he as usual didn't do any reasonable research, and then see him literally stop posting as soon as the numbers started to turn, and then literally disappear ever since is particularly funny. His second to last post was to say the Great Pumpkin wasn't coming in a taunt that blue votes were not going to come in late in the midwestern states. His last post is to post hour old data from a county in Pennsylvania showing Biden losing by 19 points when the exact same source had posted 25 minutes before that Biden had caught up and was leading. Classic Cal88 solid gold.

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Did you spend time talking about why all their polling was wrong?

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You do realize they don't do polling, right.

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They do post aggregates of polls there, do they not?

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Primarily No. They have a probabilistic model based on the polls and their historical performance. They are very careful to explain what it is and what it is not. It is one small piece of the analysis they do. For instance they published what the state projections would be if their was a 2016 level polling miss. Their last election projection said Biden was favored, but it is a very fine line between a nail biter and a landslide.

Even if you were to not listen to anything they say and just look at their most likely projection, they accurately projected 49 of 51 states + DC.

But if you did listen to what they say you would have expected what happened and if you were on their live blog, while they were in wait and see mode like everyone, early in the evening they were pretty unanimous that they felt Biden's numbers looked like the 2018 election where the Republicans charged in front and the Democrats reeled them in. They were waiting to see just how blue mail ins would be, but there was no sense that Trump was running away with anything like here. On the contrary, I don't think they ever thought Biden was losing.

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No offense, but you are avoiding the issue.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2020-election-polls-wrong-fivethirtyeights-nate-silver-explains/story?id=74038650

Quote:

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This year, it's kind of the opposite, actually. The polls will be right probably in about 48 or 49 states when states like Pennsylvania get counted eventually, but there'll be way off on the margins.

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The point is not the presidential election, where it's win or lose the whole state. It's races like Susan Collins and Lindsey Graham that were way way off. Those polls created illusions about those races.

Polling has something seriously broken right now, undoubtedly related to the fact that people are not likely to answer calls from pollsters.

Kaworu said:

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OaktownBear said:

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Kaworu said:

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OaktownBear said:

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Kaworu said:

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OaktownBear said:

---

I have to say, I spent election night on the Fivethirtyeight blog, keeping track with the NYtimes, and watching CNN and MSNBC. Just read through much of the election night posting here and it is absolutely hilarious how little people understood the numbers real time. The info was out there if you wanted it. Fivethirtyeight had done a comprehensive piece about where states would be counting Republican votes first and Democratic votes second and vice versa. That Trump was going to come back in Ohio was obvious and that Biden was going to come back in Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn, and Georgia was obvious as well. It might not have been obvious that Biden was going to win all those states, but it was obvious that he would make a charge.

I must admit that seeing Cal88 spend half the night gloating because he as usual didn't do any reasonable research, and then see him literally stop posting as soon as the numbers started to turn, and then literally disappear ever since is particularly funny. His second to last post was to say the Great Pumpkin wasn't coming in a taunt that blue votes were not going to come in late in the midwestern states. His last post is to post hour old data from a county in Pennsylvania showing Biden losing by 19 points when the exact same source had posted 25 minutes before that Biden had caught up and was leading. Classic Cal88 solid gold.

---

Did you spend time talking about why all their polling was wrong?

---

You do realize they don't do polling, right.

---

They do post aggregates of polls there, do they not?

---

Primarily No. They have a probabilistic model based on the polls and their historical performance. They are very careful to explain what it is and what it is not. It is one small piece of the analysis they do. For instance they published what the state projections would be if their was a 2016 level polling miss. Their last election projection said Biden was favored, but it is a very fine line between a nail biter and a landslide.

Even if you were to not listen to anything they say and just look at their most likely projection, they accurately projected 49 of 51 states + DC.

But if you did listen to what they say you would have expected what happened and if you were on their live blog, while they were in wait and see mode like everyone, early in the evening they were pretty unanimous that they felt Biden's numbers looked like the 2018 election where the Republicans charged in front and the Democrats reeled them in. They were waiting to see just how blue mail ins would be, but there was no sense that Trump was running away with anything like here. On the contrary, I don't think they ever thought Biden was losing.

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No offense, but you are avoiding the issue.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2020-election-polls-wrong-fivethirtyeights-nate-silver-explains/story?id=74038650

Quote:

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This year, it's kind of the opposite, actually. The polls will be right probably in about 48 or 49 states when states like Pennsylvania get counted eventually, but there'll be way off on the margins.

---

The point is not the presidential election, where it's win or lose the whole state. It's races like Susan Collins and Lindsey Graham that were way way off. Those polls created illusions about those races.

Polling has something seriously broken right now, undoubtedly related to the fact that people are not likely to answer calls from pollsters.

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The polls being wrong wasn't the issue we were discussing. It was your comment about 538's polls being wrong. 538 does an excellent job of explaining the issues, including how the polls might be wrong (one of the last articles before the election was to say Trump could still win). To tell you what to expect and to help understand why and how the polls were wrong. If people just want to pop on for 10 seconds and look at a tracker, without taking a few minutes to understand how to read the tracker, that is their fault, not the fault of the service

538 does an amazing job on election coverage and yes, frankly it was the people who read 538 that had some understanding of what was going on real time.

538 doesn't do polling. They analyze polling. If what you want to talk is about problems with polling, I'd suggest that what you might try to do is look to people that do that analysis rather than dis them because a probabilistic model that is not supposed to give you a prediction but is supposed to give you a probabilistic range of outcomes and who thoroughly explains the strengths and weaknesses of the polls.

And, as for the polls, there were problems across the board. Republican and Democratic leaning polls, internal polls, everyone was wrong. Though the average of presidential polls was about as accurate as always. It was precinct level polling that was a problem.

Pollsters will have to sort that out. I think there are a lot of issues they are dealing with. Traditional phone polling doesn't work so they have transitioned to new technologies that may not be calibrated. At the same time turnout is shifting and some types of voters are switching sides. And I think there are also voters that never vote except when the "you're fired!" guy is in the election.

Trump's election challenges show how obvious Biden's victory was - Axios


https://www.axios.com/trump-election-challenges-loss-biden-fb42c9df-485d-4494-aeb2-6b2acadeb32a.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top



Chamber of Commerce CEO: Trump "should not delay the transition a moment longer" - Axios


https://www.axios.com/trump-biden-election-winner-ceos-chamber-of-commerce-1373b274-38c5-40e9-848c-71b85498eafb.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top

okaydo said:

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I saw this X-Files episode.

A landslide.