B.A. Bearacus said:

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With people testing positive for antibodies so widespread, and so many asymptomatic, why do I get poo pooed every time I speculate my wife an I may have had it in February and March because we had some of the symptoms?

Clarification on sample size:

This one's for you, Social Distancing!

dimitrig said:

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chazzed said:

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Florida's state government seems to have been undeporting COVID-19 numbers, including deaths.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/04/29/florida-medical-examiners-were-releasing-coronavirus-death-data-the-state-made-them-stop/

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I believe this is widespread. In my mind there is no way that OC has only 42 deaths when every surrounding county has more - mostly WAY more.

I think some counties are being more liberal as listing COVID-19 as probable cause of death while others are being more conservative.

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Article about the mystery surrounding OC's low infection and death rate:

https://www.pasadenastarnews.com/2020/05/03/why-is-orange-countys-coronavirus-death-rate-lower-than-its-neighbors

Meanwhile, cases there are increasing - possibly due to more testing:

https://www.ocregister.com/2020/05/01/coronavirus-orange-county-deaths-reach-50-as-of-friday-may-1/

okaydo said:

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It's bizarre. Here in L.A., when I walk in the streets, 90% of the people I encounter have masks on.

Ever since 5:30 am on March 14 when I went into a packed supermarket, I've noticed that everybody is cordial. Everybody is patient. Of course, everybody is also diverse. People of all races saying, "we're all in this together."

Then I see other parts of the country, and I'm just baffled.

Transmission of the virus fascinates me. This is an interesting article. Wear your mask to be safe.

Is the coronavirus airborne? Experts can't agree


https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00974-w

I will continue to err on the side of caution. This German virologist, who has good credentials, has interesting theories:

RTL Today - Leading German virologist: "So far, no transmission of the virus in supermarkets, restaurants or hairdressers has been proved."


https://today.rtl.lu/news/science-and-environment/a/1498185.html

bearister said:

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according his wikipedia page and personal website http://www.countryjoe.com "Whoopee we're all gonna die" Joe still lives and breathes in Berkeley..
> Welcome to my home on the web. I'm a singer and songwriter, I used to be in Country Joe & the Fish, and I live in Berkeley, California, Planet Earth.

bearister said:

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Transmission of the virus fascinates me. This is an interesting article. Wear your mask to be safe.

Is the coronavirus airborne? Experts can't agree


https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00974-w

I will continue to err on the side of caution. This German virologist, who has good credentials, has interesting theories:

RTL Today - Leading German virologist: "So far, no transmission of the virus in supermarkets, restaurants or hairdressers has been proved."


https://today.rtl.lu/news/science-and-environment/a/1498185.html

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Me, too. And Bill Gates, as well, who cited "How is the virus REALLY transmitted, in the vast majority of cases?" as one of the key questions he would like to see answered. Knowing this would help us to concentrate our efforts on stopping documented types of transmissions, while allaying our fears over rumored transmissions that actually occur only quite rarely, if ever.

The state and local leaders who have stood out on coronavirus - Axios


https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-state-local-leaders-7887ab1d-eb43-4243-8e39-1e4cb5974d85.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top

bearister said:

---

Transmission of the virus fascinates me. This is an interesting article. Wear your mask to be safe.

Is the coronavirus airborne? Experts can't agree


https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00974-w

I will continue to err on the side of caution. This German virologist, who has good credentials, has interesting theories:

RTL Today - Leading German virologist: "So far, no transmission of the virus in supermarkets, restaurants or hairdressers has been proved."


https://today.rtl.lu/news/science-and-environment/a/1498185.html

---

This is kind of silly. It hasn't been proven scientifically because there hasn't been time to do that.

China did significant contact tracing. They know things like a person went into a restaurant while infected. 8 people in the restaurant ended up sick,some from their table and some from unrelated neighboring tables. They know where they were sitting.

I would say if you parse it to the extent he does there is no proof of any specific social activity leading to transmission

I am exercising extreme caution, regardless. Clearly density is a huge problem....but excuse me if I don't write Dr. Hendrik Streeck's theories off as silly. Based on China's conduct, I'm not accepting all of their theories about this disease as necessarily reliable. I agree that no one knows for sure, but there is something more inherently comforting to me when I know the scientist's name, credentials, and exactly what he did to come up with his conclusions.

If the virus is as easy to catch from surface contact, droplets and aerosols as the studies out of China and the catastrophic reports in the media suggest, someone has to explain to me why out of a population of 1.1 million in Contra Costa County as of 5/3/20 at 11:30 am there has been 28 deaths tied to COVID 19, many of those nursing home residents (under reported deaths, undoubtedly, but that is more than taken into account by the exponentially under reported cases).
With that said, I am all in for following Governor Newsom and the experts he relies on.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hendrik_Streeck

COVID-19 Case-Cluster-Study - Wikipedia


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_Case-Cluster-Study
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_Case-Cluster-Study

Dashboard | Coronavirus


https://www.coronavirus.cchealth.org/dashboard

It's not easy to catch from those things. Finding incidental counts of virus is not the same as transmission.

Exclusive: FEMA braces for COVID-infected hurricane season - Axios


https://www.axios.com/fema-coronavirus-hurricane-season-ef660cda-f4b3-4002-b8ac-71438c8edebd.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiossneakpeek&stream=top

*How do you protect people when hurricane force winds carry virus droplets 50 miles? It's worse than Sharknado.

Government report predicts coronavirus cases will surge to 200,000 a day by June 1 - The Washington Post


https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/government-report-predicts-covid-19-cases-will-reach-200000-a-day-by-june-1/2020/05/04/02fe743e-8e27-11ea-a9c0-73b93422d691_story.html

I've been sheltering in place for decades. This is a no brainer for me.




Scientists find same mutation in COVID-9 that preceded end of SARS



https://mol.im/a/8286181

The coronavirus is changing the way we work - Axios


https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-workplace-changes-71c9f77f-b197-490d-b7d8-8f0d78fba548.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top


Malls, movies and more: A look at reopenings by state in US


https://apnews.com/4d7f838dd5e2c3e17b29e15e607d065d?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top

It's interesting that telecommuting is being talked about as this great, new thing. In IT we were working from home 25 years ago. It was a driver in jobs like mine being outsourced to folks around the world because of reduced labor costs. The main impediment to early telecommute adoption was management. They figured if they couldn't see you they couldn't really tell how much work you were doing. I can almost guarantee that if covid mandates more telecommuting more jobs will be lost to cheaper labor around the world. Telecommuting is great until your bosses figure, "Hey, if your job can be done from home I can replace you with someone else who will work remotely at a fraction of the cost".

"Hey, if your job can be done from home I can replace you with someone else who will work remotely at a fraction of the cost".

An off shoot of the Phil Knight Principle, which conferred on him a net worth of $35 billion.*


*...but it is all very moral and ethical because a corporation's duty is to make as much money as possible for its shareholders.

to infinity the barricades and beyond..

bearister said:

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"Hey, if your job can be done from home I can replace you with someone else who will work remotely at a fraction of the cost".

An off shoot of the Phil Knight Principle, which conferred on him a net worth of $35 billion.*


*...but it is all very moral and ethical because a corporation's duty is to make as much money as possible for its shareholders.

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This principle would seem to apply to all of us who buy from Amazon or use Uber instead of going to a local store or using a cab for selfish reasons like lower cost and convenience. We cannot blame corporations when we behave the same way. This coming from someone who is heavily invested in Amazon (but not Uber).

I am a big believer in putting my money to work. The companies that mistreat their employees during this crisis should pay the price at the hands of the consumer. I am definitely keeping track of companies and how they behave in this environment even more so than ever before. Despite what it did to the stock price, I was encouraged by the statement from Amazon during their earnings call that they will spend all of their $4B profit for the next quarter on employee health and safety matters and providing safer environment for the workers. Smart play that I think they mostly will turn into a money maker (just like they did with AWS or fulfillment services) once this is behind us.

If, before the social distancing, we were shopping for the lowest fare, the lowest cost or the most convenience and were unwilling to instead shop, eat or utilize at local businesses or only those with corporate/business social ethics even if we have to pay more, then we cannot complain. Same feeling as I get when I hear from people who didn't vote but are now complaining about Trump. For those people, my take is, you had your chance to actually do something about it to effect the change you say you wanted. Don't wait for others to solve your moral guilt. Do better next time.

Here's an interesting twitter thread by a reputable infectious disease academic who has interpreted some of the transmission studies done to date.

According to her, the spread is driven by prolonged close contact, not casual short interactions. If this is true (and can be verified and reflected in policy decisions), we can greatly reduce the social distancing burdens on the world. It doesn't mean that we can go back to concerts or crowded bars, but it would mean that we don't need to worry about open public spaces as much. Also the data continues to suggest that young kids have much lower infection rates which would help support re-opening school for younger students at least.

I want to note that it's important that public health experts are driven by the data and not the other way around. Hopefully the data will support easing restrictions because it's pretty clear at this point that providing healthy freedoms will be beneficial to societies around the world.

Well, she is aligned with Dr. Hendrik Streeck:

RTL Today - Leading German virologist: "So far, no transmission of the virus in supermarkets, restaurants or hairdressers has been proved."


https://today.rtl.lu/news/science-and-environment/a/1498185.html

The states where the coronavirus is spreading fastest - Axios


https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-caseloads-states-b24899a3-286e-4ea9-bd71-0e88ed645e68.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top

thanks b. one of several qualifications:

• Some states may see their case counts rise not necessarily because their outbreaks are getting dramatically worse, but because their testing is getting better, so they're catching more cases.

signed off with "The virus isn't just some other states' problem. It's everyone's problem"

a making-it-real 2 hanky SacBee article (paywall wide open to anyone with a google login)
https://www.sacbee.com/article242392956.html

Quote:

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Barely breathing': Entire family feels physical and financial pain of COVID-19
BY JASON ANDERSON, MAY 05, 2020 04:00 AM, UPDATED 10:10 AM

In the darkest hour of the most desperate night in his family's fight with the coronavirus, 38-year-old Frances Milds watched over his ailing wife in their Olivehurst home.

"She was barely breathing," he said

Milds turned on a humidifier, covered his wife with a thicker, winter blanket and then went to check on their 13-year-old daughter, who was sick in her room. Milds soon found himself slumped over a bathroom counter, coughing, dizzy and on the verge of unconsciousness.. .. ..

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oh, and the family story popped up in the NYTimes' daily CaliforniaJournal email, plus other left-coastal stuff (barrister's peaches link as well). recommended to cybears with Times subscriber internet rights/access.

i forget the rest.

cut-paste test, never-miind..


'Barely breathing': Entire family feels physical and financial pain of COVID-19

In the darkest hour of the most desperate night in his family's fight with the coronavirus, 38-year-old Frances Milds watched over his ailing wife in their Olivehurst home.

"She was barely breathing," he said.

Milds turned on a humidifier, covered his wife with a thicker, winter blanket and then went to check on their 13-year-old daughter, who was sick in her room. Milds soon found himself slumped over a bathroom counter, coughing, dizzy and on the verge of unconsciousness.

"I thought I was going to die like I would not wake up," Milds said. "I was standing in my bathroom, weighing my options at 2 in the morning, not sure if I was going to make it or if I should write up a will before I go."

Milds and his wife, 38-year-old Toni Stratton, both of whom grew up in the Sacramento area, had followed the news as the coronavirus carved swaths of destruction across Asia and Europe. Now, it was in their home in a Yuba County town of about 14,000 people ravaging their immune systems, wrecking their finances, hurling them into a world of pain and frustration.

"I've never been sick like this in my entire life," Stratton said. "I knew what it was. My eyes were burning. I had headaches. The body aches were the worst. I felt like I was paralyzed. It hurt so bad. It was awful."

Stratton is one of 50 people in the Yuba-Sutter area who have tested positive for COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus. Her husband and their daughter, Kairi, were not tested, but they were presumed positive. Their ordeal exposed them to limitations in the county's ability to test, treat and count coronavirus patients, and subjected them to flaws in a state unemployment system that was not prepared for this kind of crisis.

"The whole thing is a mess," Stratton said.

Stratton and Milds are sharing their story of suffering in hopes of helping others.


'WORSE BY THE MINUTE'

Stratton and her daughter first experienced symptoms on March 15, four days before Gov. Gavin Newsom issued a stay-at-home order to nearly 40 million California residents. Stratton said an itchy throat was followed by coughing and sneezing before the symptoms worsened.

"It was almost like really bad allergies," she said.

Stratton woke up on the third day with a temperature of 101.7 degrees. Her employer told her she had to be tested for the coronavirus before she could return to work. She was tested March 20 and would wait 10 long days for the results.

Milds started experiencing symptoms after caring for his wife and daughter for several days.

"I was trying to take care of these two, but I was getting worse by the minute," he said. "Not by the day by the minute."

Milds described unbearable intestinal pain, the same feeling of paralysis his wife and daughter experienced, intense migraines and nose bleeds. His fever spiked to 103 degrees.

"This thing is terrifying," Milds said. "When you see how many people have keeled over from this, and people are not taking this seriously, it's just crazy. You think this is just the flu? No. If you've never had this, you have no idea."

As of Monday morning, more than 3.4 million people around the world had tested positive for COVID-19 and 239,604 had died, according to the World Health Organization. There were over 1.1 million cases and 65,735 deaths in the United States, according to the Centers for Disease Control.

COVID-19 QUARANTINE

Stratton said her doctor was reluctant to test her for COVID-19 due to a shortage of testing kits, but she insisted because of her work requirement.

"The worst thing was trying to convince the doctor this was more than just the flu," Stratton said. "She said, 'Well, the cold and the flu are both going around.' She's been my doctor for 16 or 17 years now. I said, 'When was the last time I came to you with the flu?'"

Stratton's doctor administered the test at her office in Citrus Heights, inserting a 6-inch swab deep into each of her nostrils for 15 seconds and rotating several times to collect a proper sample. Ten days later, on March 30, the doctor called to tell Stratton she tested positive for COVID-19. A representative from the Yuba-Sutter Health Department called the same day with instructions and questions many questions.

"They asked about my husband, myself and my daughter," Stratton said. "They wanted to know where he works, where I work, where she goes to school."

The whole family was placed under quarantine for two weeks. County health officials said Milds, Stratton and their daughter should isolate themselves inside their four-bedroom, three-bathroom home.

"They said we couldn't be near each other," Stratton said. "They said we can't share blankets, utensils, plates, food, anything."

TESTING SHORTFALLS

The family's story illustrates how worldwide testing issues have made it difficult to assess the scope and severity of the global pandemic. All three members of the household were diagnosed with COVID-19, but only Stratton was counted as a positive case because her husband and daughter were not tested.

"The doctor told my wife if she has it, then I definitely have it, so there would be no reason to test me," Milds said.

Many people infected with the coronavirus have not been tested due to a shortage of testing kits. Many others are not being tested because they have not developed serious symptoms. Experts have explained the number of people infected with the virus is much higher than the number of confirmed cases.

Russ Brown, a public information officer for Yuba County, said the Yuba-Sutter Health Department reports positive test results to the CDC, but it does not report presumed or suspected COVID-19 cases.

"We've said from the beginning there are many more cases of coronavirus than the positive tests indicate and that's mainly because we've had a limited number of testing kits available," Brown said. "I think people put too much on that tested-positive number because there are so many more who were never tested."

Brown said a new testing site at the Sutter County Veterans Hall will allow more than 130 Yuba and Sutter county residents to be tested each weekday, increasing testing capacity in the Yuba-Sutter area by 600 percent.

FINANCES AND FRUSTRATION

Stratton and Milds said contracting the coronavirus has taken a huge financial toll on their family.

Milds is a self-employed personal trainer, but he has not worked since undergoing hernia surgery seven months ago. Stratton, a customer service specialist, was out of work for a month while recovering from COVID-19. She said she exhausted her paid time off over the first seven days and went unpaid for about three weeks before returning to work April 13.

Stratton is now working from home, but the income lost during her recovery was a financial setback for the family. They are thousands of dollars behind on their mortgage payment. Their cellphones and internet service have been disconnected. Other bills remain unpaid.

"This has ruined us financially," Milds said.

Anyone wishing to help can visit the family's Go Gund Me page.

Stratton and Milds applied for unemployment March 22 and both were approved, they said, but they still haven't received their first payments. The Employment Development Department's antiquated computer systems were not prepared for the crush of 3.2 million people who filed for unemployment over the past six weeks, California Labor Secretary Julie Su said last week.

Milds can't even log in to check the status of his benefits. Stratton can log in to see a check was issued to her April 6, but she can't reach anyone through the EDD's automated telephone system to report the payment has not been received.

"I can't contact anybody," she said. "It wouldn't let me talk to a human being. When you finally get into a cue, it says their cue is full, 'Goodbye,' and just hangs up on you."

EDD officials did not respond to an email from The Sacramento Bee and could not be reached by phone.

ISOLATION AND CONFUSION

Stratton said county health officials were constantly in contact, calling every day to ask about her symptoms, but they never asked about her husband or daughter. The family doctor was required to report all three COVID-19 cases to Yuba-Sutter health officials, but that information was not provided to department representatives who tracked Stratton's case.

"They didn't even know Frances and my daughter were sick," Stratton said. "I had to explain to three different people and they all said, 'Well, did he get tested?' And then I explained that, too, and they said, 'Oh.' They had no clue.

"They had to ask me the same questions every single day: when I got sick, when the fevers started, when they stopped, when I got tested. I had to answer these questions every time, and then they got it all confused. It was just a really messy thing."

When a county health officer called to review Stratton's quarantine status after two weeks of isolation, he, too, was unaware there were two more coronavirus cases in her home.

"He freaked out," Milds said. "He actually put us on an extra two weeks of quarantine."

UNANSWERED QUESTIONS

County health officials released all three family members from quarantine April 12. Stratton went back to work the following day. They are hoping to overcome the hardships after weeks of debilitating illness and isolation, hoping the worst is over.

Milds has asked about potential immunities that might prevent his family from going through this again, but those questions remain unanswered.

"I asked about the herd immunity and the antibodies and if we're going to be immune to this thing," Milds said. "My doctor and two representatives from the health department all told me none of that is conclusive at this point."

Antibody tests are designed to detect signs of coronavirus exposure in the blood, but the tests are reportedly proving to be inaccurate and it is unknown if the presence of antibodies confers any level of immunity.

"They don't even know if we can keep giving it to each other," Milds said. "We've been sitting here super afraid because we have older relatives. We have people with extenuating illnesses. We don't know if we're still infected. We don't know if we're infectious. We don't know if we're just carriers now. Nobody really knows anything."

Stratton and Milds felt like they were left alone to fight the full force of a global pandemic by themselves, but they know there are many more like them counted or uncounted waging their own battles in isolation.

"The struggle is real, and not just for us," Milds said. "If we're going through this, that means there are plenty of other families going through the same thing."

Jason Anderson is an award-winning sportswriter for The Sacramento Bee. He started his journalism career at The Bee more than 20 years ago and returned to cover the Sacramento Kings in September 2018.

How long can coronavirus live on surfaces or in the air? - The Economic Times


https://m.economictimes.com/magazines/panache/how-long-can-coronavirus-live-on-surfaces-or-in-the-air/articleshow/74690737.cms
https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.economictimes.com/magazines/panache/how-long-can-coronavirus-live-on-surfaces-or-in-the-air/amp_articleshow/74690737.cms

Wearable COVID 19 Detector

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-diagnostics-wearable-symptoms-detection-a5c31356-bdf9-4139-b194-9cc52be896e2.html

Travel From New York City Seeded Wave of U.S. Outbreaks - The New York Times


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/us/new-york-city-coronavirus-outbreak.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/us/new-york-city-coronavirus-outbreak.html?referringSource=articleShare

You know who and his advisors have decided not to release the CDC guidelines for reopening public spaces. Apparently the White House didn't like it and has sent it back for revisions. Politics interfered with the science-based recommendations.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/496528-white-house-shelved-cdc-reopening-guidance-report

It appears that one of the personal valets of the man in the White House has tested positive for COVID 19. Exposed or Not Exposed? I guess we'll know in a couple of weeks.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/07/trump-valet-positive-coronavirus-test-242619