Big C said:

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SF Chron and local County Health Departments are reporting a "sharp spike" in the number of verified COVID-19 cases in Alameda County over the last three weeks, especially last week. Same bad news in Contra Costa County (for last week).

The "why now" is still unknown. Speculation about the return to construction work this month.

Crap. This is when we need that testing and contact tracing. Or, who knows, maybe the new discoveries are due to increased testing?

At this point, it is still "merely" a situation to monitor closely.

---

That's exactly right. I see two things. As we test more, there will be more confirmed cases than when we were just testing on people sick enough to check into the hospital. We will get more confirmed cases by catching those who are asymptomatic. That should eventually reduce the mortality rate.

Second, this was never about eliminating the infection rate or shutting down all person to person contact until there is herd immunity. We will get spikes, but the first shut down was intended for our country to get its act together to better handle the next spike, including ensuring sufficient hospital capacity. Yes, we will have more death by trying to avoid the implosion of our economy and quality of life. We make those decisions all the time. We will have more death by either car accidents, obesity, pollution, etc. by allowing motorized transportation as opposed to forcing people to walk every where. I assume the economic and quality of life benefit outweighs the incremental death, and so we have not enacted orders to shut down cars or limit the usage.

Big C said:

---

SF Chron and local County Health Departments are reporting a "sharp spike" in the number of verified COVID-19 cases in Alameda County over the last three weeks, especially last week. Same bad news in Contra Costa County (for last week).

The "why now" is still unknown. Speculation about the return to construction work this month.

Crap. This is when we need that testing and contact tracing. Or, who knows, maybe the new discoveries are due to increased testing?

At this point, it is still "merely" a situation to monitor closely.

---

Foursquare has released an interactive website that allows you to see for every state (national as well as county-level also available) what sorts of businesses are seeing increased week over week traffic (as well as relative to pre-COVID).

Pretty interesting stuff: https://foursquare.com/recoveryindex?state=California

In Alameda, it's showing 15.5% overall less visitation vs pre-COVID. LA down 19%. OC down 16%. SF down 29% (but up 11.5% week over week, the rest are basically flat week over week).

calbear93 said:

---

Big C said:

---

SF Chron and local County Health Departments are reporting a "sharp spike" in the number of verified COVID-19 cases in Alameda County over the last three weeks, especially last week. Same bad news in Contra Costa County (for last week).

The "why now" is still unknown. Speculation about the return to construction work this month.

Crap. This is when we need that testing and contact tracing. Or, who knows, maybe the new discoveries are due to increased testing?

At this point, it is still "merely" a situation to monitor closely.

---

That's exactly right. I see two things. As we test more, there will be more confirmed cases than when we were just testing on people sick enough to check into the hospital. We will get more confirmed cases by catching those who are asymptomatic. That should eventually reduce the mortality rate.

Second, this was never about eliminating the infection rate or shutting down all person to person contact until there is herd immunity. We will get spikes, but the first shut down was intended for our country to get its act together to better handle the next spike, including ensuring sufficient hospital capacity. Yes, we will have more death by trying to avoid the implosion of our economy and quality of life. We make those decisions all the time. We will have more death by either car accidents, obesity, pollution, etc. by allowing motorized transportation as opposed to forcing people to walk every where. I assume the economic and quality of life benefit outweighs the incremental death, and so we have not enacted orders to shut down cars or limit the usage.

---

It's entirely possible that the increased case numbers are the result of increased testing. Note however that there were not similar spikes in ANY of the other Bay Area counties (besides Alameda and Contra Costa)

The respective counties' Departments of Health should be able to sleuth it out. If not, we should know in a couple of weeks, when the number of deaths rises (or, hopefully, doesn't).

Update on Travel:

Son in law and granddaughter had to travel LAX to WashDC this AM and were very concerned about being on an airplane. As it turns out Southwest did in fact keep the middle seats empty. Just for info of anyone having to travel. She had come home on March 13 and isolated at home while working, but her lease is up on May 31 and has to move her furniture to storage from her existing apartment.

After seeing some full airplanes on the news there was some angst about this venture. The choice of driving cross country was not pretty because then you exchange hotel rooms and restaurants for airplane travel.
Continued good health to all. Hope this helps and continues to be airline policy.

Some pretty interesting things said in article about transmission. I found this the most interesting:

" "Even so, he said it takes about 15 minutes of close contact for the "viral load" to reach a threshold that causes a nearby person to catch the disease."


After 100,000 coronavirus cases, it's clearer where Californians are getting infected East Bay Times


https://www.mercurynews.com/after-100000-coronavirus-cases-its-clearer-where-californians-are-getting-infected

bearister said:

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Some pretty interesting things said in article about transmission. I found this the most interesting:

" "Even so, he said it takes about 15 minutes of close contact for the "viral load" to reach a threshold that causes a nearby person to catch the disease."


After 100,000 coronavirus cases, it's clearer where Californians are getting infected East Bay Times

---

much needed hopeful article, thanks for the headsup B. lurck

Lessons from the coronavirus lockdown and what comes next - Axios


https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-lockdown-lessons-2f2e28cb-848b-42e2-a9da-b2d31fb8bda6.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top

And now for some good news: https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-italy-virus/new-coronavirus-losing-potency-top-italian-doctor-says-idUKKBN2370OP

Quote:

---

ROME (Reuters) - The new coronavirus is losing its potency and has become much less lethal, a senior Italian doctor said on Sunday.

"In reality, the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy," said Alberto Zangrillo, the head of the San Raffaele Hospital in Milan in the northern region of Lombardy, which has borne the brunt of Italy's coronavirus contagion.

"The swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantitative terms that was absolutely infinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or two months ago," he told RAI television.

---

If this is true, and occurs elsewhere, it would be a phenomenal development.

~

Unit2Sucks said:

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if this is true, and occurs elsewhere, it would be a phenomenal development.

---

of large dimension bolded and upper-case IF

Unit2Sucks said:

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And now for some good news: https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-italy-virus/new-coronavirus-losing-potency-top-italian-doctor-says-idUKKBN2370OP

Quote:

---

ROME (Reuters) - The new coronavirus is losing its potency and has become much less lethal, a senior Italian doctor said on Sunday.

"In reality, the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy," said Alberto Zangrillo, the head of the San Raffaele Hospital in Milan in the northern region of Lombardy, which has borne the brunt of Italy's coronavirus contagion.

"The swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantitative terms that was absolutely infinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or two months ago," he told RAI television.

---

If this is true, and occurs elsewhere, it would be a phenomenal development.

---

Maybe like the p@ussie aliens in War of the Worlds it just can't handle the billions of microbes.

Unit2Sucks said:

---

And now for some good news: https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-italy-virus/new-coronavirus-losing-potency-top-italian-doctor-says-idUKKBN2370OP

Quote:

---

ROME (Reuters) - The new coronavirus is losing its potency and has become much less lethal, a senior Italian doctor said on Sunday.

"In reality, the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy," said Alberto Zangrillo, the head of the San Raffaele Hospital in Milan in the northern region of Lombardy, which has borne the brunt of Italy's coronavirus contagion.

"The swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantitative terms that was absolutely infinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or two months ago," he told RAI television.

---

If this is true, and occurs elsewhere, it would be a phenomenal development.

---

And the counterpoint: https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-comments-reported-in-the-media-by-prof-alberto-zangrillo-about-the-covid-19-virus-in-italy/

huugely off topic blather below, everyone pls ignore
--------------

> static.rogerebert.com/uploads/review/primary_image/reviews/war-of-the-worlds-2005/EB20050628REVIEWS50606007AR.jpg

dunno what you're on about barrister. 'Woke' to scientology leadership's horrific abuse of members and their families, apparently a former lead actor disappeared from the world.

coinkadink dozens of his flicks' imdb ratings dinged to minus zero onesies.
# allegedly

fwiw ..
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt6244192

Interest in the George Floyd protests has soared past the coronavirus - Axios


https://www.axios.com/george-floyd-protests-coronavirus-media-coverage-08e7aa7c-1a31-4f1a-98b1-adf3229797ca.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top

https://www.insider.com/leah-remini-tom-cruise-scientology-2017-8

title reads..
'He's diabolical': Leah Remini says Scientology poster boy Tom Cruise is not a good person

smh said:

---

https://www.insider.com/leah-remini-tom-cruise-scientology-2017-8
title reads..
'He's diabolical': Leah Remini says Scientology poster boy Tom Cruise is not a good person

---

smh said:

---

https://www.insider.com/leah-remini-tom-cruise-scientology-2017-8

title reads..
'He's diabolical': Leah Remini says Scientology poster boy Tom Cruise is not a good person

---

Wait . . . is Tom Cruise responsible for COVID?

credit where due, the really realllly bad man brings it on camera.

SPOILERS / LOOK AWAY


best of those may be his very late "tropic thunder (2008)" surprise cameo as studio head "les grossman" channeling real life cal grad Stuart Cornfeld.
^^^ see, there is a cal connection


we back? ohkay..
maybe stream the teaser off of cybears bandwidth budget, cut and paste link elsewhere..
youtube.com/watch?v=Omgf9WuGwq8

sycasey said:

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smh said:

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Wait . . . is Tom Cruise responsible for COVID?

---

---

as front man for the organization shurre, why not suppose so..
https://www.thedailybeast.com/we-asked-the-church-of-scientology-how-theyre-combatting-coronavirus-this-is-their-wild-response

Quote:

---

Tampa Bay Times published an eye-opening story concerning the Church of Scientology's reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic. In the piece, journalist Tracey McManus reported that members of the Sea Org, the more militant wing of the church, were "still packing buses as they moved from living quarters to church buildings" and "sitting shoulder to shoulder" around Scientology's Flag Buildingor Spiritual Headquartersin Clearwater, Florida. Furthermore, she quoted Clearwater City Councilman Mark Bunker who claimed, "It's not a healthy situation. I've heard from a lot of family members, families who have been (estranged) from their kids in the Sea Org and they are worried to death about the conditions they are living in."

The Tampa Bay Times piece came on the heels of a March 24 story by Tony Ortega, the world's leading Scientology reporter, who'd obtained a March 13 letter from Scientology leader David Miscavige to his adherents referring to the COVID-19 crisis as "the current hysteria" and "planetary bullbait."

---

BearNIt said:

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Matthew Patel said:

---

bearister said:

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The Price of a Virus Lockdown: Economic 'Free Fall' in California - The New York Times


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/26/us/coronavirus-california-economy.html

....but then in other news..

" Truck loads are growing again. Air travel and hotel bookings are up slightly. Mortgage applications are rising. And more people are applying to open new businesses," the Wall Street Journal writes in its lead print story (subscription).

Why it matters: "These are among some early signs the U.S. economy is, ever so slowly, creeping back to life."
"If this is the only wave [of coronavirus], it looks like we've bottomed out and the normalization process has begun," said Beth Ann Bovino, U.S. chief economist at S&P Global Ratings.
"Spending on hotels, restaurants, airlines and other industries hurt by social distancing remains low, but appears to be picking up," the Journal reports.

"We're past the trough in terms of peak damage," said Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics." Axios

---

The lockdown is moronic, not unlike your assertion that Trump fixed the 2016 election.

---

That is without a doubt the dumbest thing I have heard since we got hit by COVID 19. The lockdown was to prevent the deaths in this country from reaching 2,000,000 individuals, it was also used to make sure that the healthcare systems in each our 50 states didn't get overwhelmed which would result in individuals needing the most critical being unable to receive that care or having access to ventilators and medications which were in short supply. In short, the lockdown saved lived maybe even yours. The Russians fixed the 2016 election which every intelligence report to date says benefited Captain Catastrophe and his Merry Band of Idiots.

---

Fearful, liberal, and stupid is no way to go through life.

Coronavirus hospitalizations keep falling - Axios


https://www.axios.com/state-by-state-coronavirus-hospitalizations-may-964d0dd3-ced6-4df2-8a80-03764355b291.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top

bearister said:

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Coronavirus hospitalizations keep falling - Axios

---

California chart..
> Max: 7.6%
> Current 6.4%

COVID is so over. We've just seen mass demonstrations, and no social distancing all over the country, sanctioned by all the governments involved. That genie is not going back in the bottle

Anarchistbear said:

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COVID is so over. We've just seen mass demonstrations, and no social distancing all over the country, sanctioned by all the governments involved. That genie is not going back in the bottle

---

Apparently Sweden's death rate isn't so great and Anders Tegnell (their chief epidemiologist) is admitting that they should have done more to stop the spread.

Some quotes:

Quote:

---

As criticism grows over the decision not to impose lockdown measures as strictly as elsewhere in Europe, Anders Tegnell, chief epidemiologist at Sweden's Public Health Agency, said that in hindsight the nation should have done more.

"If we were to run into the same disease, knowing exactly what we know about it today, I think we would end up doing something in between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world has done," he said.

"Yes, I think we could have done better in what we did in Sweden, clearly.

---

And a chart showing recent death rates:

There is some evidence that the disease is mutating into a less deadly form.

"The strength the virus had two months ago is not the same strength it has today," said Matteo Bassetti, head of the infectious diseases clinic at the San Martino hospital in the city of Genoa.

"It is clear that today the COVID-19 disease is different."

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-virus/new-coronavirus-losing-potency-top-italian-doctor-says-idUSKBN2370OQ

If so, it is a good thing. It also doesnt diminish the need for action to be taken back in march. The disease is new and changing, everyone needs to remember that the situation is constantly evolving.

or not, according to (not always wrong) experts. the latest..
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/03/who-says-coronavirus-has-not-meaningfully-mutated-to-a-more-lethal-or-contagious-form.html

Quote:

---

The coronavirus has not mutated in any way that would meaningfully change how quickly it spreads or how severely it can harm humans, World Health Organization officials said Wednesday.

The WHO and its network of scientists and virologists continue to track the genetic sequence of the virus in countries across the world to monitor for mutations, the WHO said. Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, head of WHO's emerging diseases and zoonosis unit, said scientists have observed "normal changes" in the virus, which were expected.

"All viruses evolve," Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of the WHO's emergencies program, said at a news briefing from the United Nations agency's Geneva headquarters. "They can evolve in one direction. They can evolve in the other direction."

"To date, to my knowledge, we haven't seen any particular signal in the virus' behavior or in its sequence that would lead us to believe the virus is changing in its nature, has changed in its transmission dynamics, or changed in its lethality," he added.

---

Unit2Sucks said:

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Apparently Sweden's death rate isn't so great and Anders Tegnell (their chief epidemiologist) is admitting that they should have done more to stop the spread.

Some quotes:

Quote:

---

As criticism grows over the decision not to impose lockdown measures as strictly as elsewhere in Europe, Anders Tegnell, chief epidemiologist at Sweden's Public Health Agency, said that in hindsight the nation should have done more.

"If we were to run into the same disease, knowing exactly what we know about it today, I think we would end up doing something in between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world has done," he said.

"Yes, I think we could have done better in what we did in Sweden, clearly.

---

And a chart showing recent death rates:

---

Now that was an actual useful post by you. Try doing more of that.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/06/05/trump-maine-puritan-throw-away-coronavirus-swabs/3153622001/

When 511 Epidemiologists Expect to Fly, Hug and Do 18 Other Everyday Activities Again - The New York Times


https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/08/upshot/when-epidemiologists-will-do-everyday-things-coronavirus.html