calpoly said:

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Another Bear said:

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calpoly said:

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blungld said:

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concordtom said:

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The Penguin finally goes to jail.

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Why is Stone allowed to go home after the trial? He should be in jail right now.

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The prosecution actually requested Stone be detained immediately. Judge gave him a break..but will throw the damn book at him given he went 7/7 on convictions. I'd guess 2-3 year per, so 14-21 years. I wonder if he tries to skip the country. Seems like a perp who will do anything to avoid prison.

That Nixon tat is going to look really sexy to some dude name Animal or Executioner.

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Thank you for the explanation. I do worry that he will skip the country.

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Totally!
Bad to allow free immediately before Trump pardons. Dude needs to be punished.

A judge says can Roger Stone can remain free pending his sentencing in February.

Judge Amy Berman Jackson rejected prosecutors' request that Stone be jailed following his conviction Friday for lying to Congress and other charges stemming from the special counsel's Russia investigation.

Jackson said Stone will be subject to the same conditions he faced following his arrest, including a gag order preventing him from talking to media.

She set Stone's sentencing for Feb. 6. Stone, 67, could face up to 20 years in prison.

BearNIt said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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You guys are nuts if you think Stone is going anywhere other than Club Fed.

These minimum security prisons for white collar criminals are hardly the prisons you see portrayed in movies. I'm not saying it's something to aspire to, but he will most likely he in jail with a bunch of other old white guys who committed fraud and are cooling their heels for 6-12 months while plotting their next scam.

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Even Club Feds are a dangerous place to be. I have seen more than a few detention centers and prisons at various levels and when given time the inmates will come up with various ways to amuse themselves. Stone's mouth and tattoo could get him in trouble.

https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b18b7g0qjk5pwb/Surviving-Prison-as-a-Wall-Street-Convict

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Ha, I used to read I.I. regularly.

In all honesty, a few weeks ago, a deer was dead on the side of the road leading to my house. Vultures were circling, preparing. I got a trash can and put it in there and brought it to my backyard so I could watch them go at it.

How long would it take to pick the bones clean?
How many would present at the scene?

I was just being curious.

Trump would be gone in a couple days once they got started, which would take a couple days - I think the stench needs to set in before they are interested.

...Upon reconsideration, I'm pretty sure they could get started right away, cause he already stinks to high hell!!!

In any case, that would be awesome to watch!!

Okay, so we need a car in the country side late at night to hit a giant orange turd...then the vultures come out.

bearup in DC contributing strong, assuming Nicki wins in '20 on new ticket after both DD & Pencil lose in House, quick resignation, new pres, new VP who?, everyone delighted except Stephen Miller, Ted Nugenr, & Howard Sterne

prospeCt said:

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Fun facts:
Rick Derringer, lead guitarist, The McCoys;
Lady wearing living tank top: Liz Brewer

Rick did some fine work with Edgar Winter and had his own hit song in 1973:

WSJ reporting that they have reviewed emails that show that Sondland kept the administration briefed on his efforts to get Ukraine to open investigations for Trump.


The floodgates have opened and you would have to be pretty dumb at this point to lie to Congress now that Stone has been convicted and people are beginning to roll over on Trump. It's going to continue to snowball and the only argument left for Republicans is that it's totally legal and totally cool to bribe a foreign government to attack your political rival and that the fact that bribery is a specific trigger for impeachment in the constitution should be ignored.

Another Bear said:

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Okay, so we need a car in the country side late at night to hit a giant orange turd...then the vultures come out.

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EXACTLY!
I'm praying.

Maybe the doctors at Walter Reed can screw up.

Unit2Sucks said:

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WSJ reporting that they have reviewed emails that show that Sondland kept the administration briefed on his efforts to get Ukraine to open investigations for Trump.


The floodgates have opened and you would have to be pretty dumb at this point to lie to Congress now that Stone has been convicted and people are beginning to roll over on Trump. It's going to continue to snowball and the only argument left for Republicans is that it's totally legal and totally cool to bribe a foreign government to attack your political rival and that the fact that bribery is a specific trigger for impeachment in the constitution should be ignored.

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SWEET!

I wonder how those were obtained.

prospeCt said:

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bearup in DC contributing strong, assuming Nicki wins in '20 on new ticket after both DD & Pencil lose in House, quick resignation, new pres, new VP who?, everyone delighted except Stephen Miller, Ted Nugenr, & Howard Sterne

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I'm willing to go on record: I think we are fast approaching the moment (right after New Year?) when Addison Mitchell McConnell Jr. makes the fateful visit to the Oval Office: "Mr. President, it may be time for you to resign..." The question is, will Trump have enough sense and regard for country and party to do what must clearly be done. Or will he fight to the end, with no regard for who or what he destroys on the way down? Does he have any selflessness in him at all, or, at the very least, have the modicum of decency to strike a somewhat selfless deal to resign (I step down if my kids are not arrested)?

I think we are far closer to his resignation than anyone suspects at the moment.

Even the GOP has a limit for how much damage they can take. It will not be an ethical decision, but a practical one. Trump may have his vocal loyalists and his brain dead masses. Both of those are gullible and unprincipled and will flip when the narrative gets flipped. The GOP can make the turn to scapegoat Trump (he wasn't who he said he was, and now look at us good patriotic Christians REDEEM the country and party to save the election!).

The only resistance will be those GOP members who will suffer legal consequence without presidential protection--and that may be many. Unfortunately, I think that is the real political math--not what is right or true, but how many go to jail if Trump is taken down.

Trump isn't resigning. The Office is the only thing keeping him from being indicted and probably going to prison. I don't care if every single Republican Senator walked into the White House and told him to resign, he would not do it. He would bring the entire Republican Party and country down with him before he resigned.

Now, McConnell and the Republican Senators may decide to remove him from office in the impeachment trial, but I doubt that. Whatever political outcome they are looking at, removing Trump from office and then facing the wrath of his supporters at the ballot box is a worse outcome for them then not removing Trump from office. The country over party or personal interest ship sailed for them a long time ago. Well before Trump.

blungld said:

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I'm willing to go on record: I think we are fast approaching the moment (right after New Year?) when Addison Mitchell McConnell Jr. makes the fateful visit to the Oval Office: "Mr. President, it may be time for you to resign..." The question is, will Trump have enough sense and regard for country and party to do what must clearly be done. Or will he fight to the end, with no regard for who or what he destroys on the way down? Does he have any selflessness in him at all, or, at the very least, have the modicum of decency to strike a somewhat selfless deal to resign (I step down if my kids are not arrested)?

I think we are far closer to his resignation than anyone suspects at the moment.

Even the GOP has a limit for how much damage they can take. It will not be an ethical decision, but a practical one. Trump may have his vocal loyalists and his brain dead masses. Both of those are gullible and unprincipled and will flip when the narrative gets flipped. The GOP can make the turn to scapegoat Trump (he wasn't who he said he was, and now look at us good patriotic Christians REDEEM the country and party to save the election!).

The only resistance will be those GOP members who will suffer legal consequence without presidential protection--and that may be many. Unfortunately, I think that is the real political math--not what is right or true, but how many go to jail if Trump is taken down.

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I think the real political math is that republican voters love Trump and a republican forcing him out is committing political suicide and they like their jobs too much. He won't resign and they won't make him. If anything will happen is that they get him to drop out of the race for 2020 because they come to believe that republicans may like him but everyone else hates him and they fear getting trounced in the election. They don't believe that at this point.

At this point they are arguing that we all know he did it, so further revelations don't matter.

The purpose of impeachment is not to remove him-the amount of Republicans that vote to remove will probably equal the amount of Democrats who vote to not remove. The purpose is to damage his re-election. bid but it's not clear any of this will do that.

I think Trump would resign if the proposition made sense to him and fed/protected his fragile ego. Explain that resignation would help his legacy and he avoids impeachment. Yes that sound ludicrous but this is not a normal human being. Even Trump can do a cost/benefit analysis, although no doubt the deciding factors he uses are tilted and delusional.

Trump's approval remains north of 80% with Republican voters. Until that drops the Republican Senators won't do anything.

Senate needs 3 GOP senators to join the Dems in requesting secret impeachment removal ballot. There's several GOP senators on the fence like Collins and Ernst. But there's also 4 or so retiring who might go for it. Secret ballot changes everything.

Another Bear said:

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Senate needs 3 GOP senators to join the Dems in requesting secret impeachment removal ballot. There's several GOP senators on the fence like Collins and Ernst. But there's also 4 or so retiring who might go for it. Secret ballot changes everything.

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A secret ballot to remove a sitting President is bad for the country and the integrity of the impeachment process. I'm against it. We should all be against it.

blungld said:

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I'm willing to go on record: I think we are fast approaching the moment (right after New Year?) when Addison Mitchell McConnell Jr. makes the fateful visit to the Oval Office: "Mr. President, it may be time for you to resign..."

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So long as he has 40% of the country who will support him no matter what, he will never resign and the Senate will be afraid to throw him out.

dajo9 said:

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Trump isn't resigning. The Office is the only thing keeping him from being indicted and probably going to prison. I don't care if every single Republican Senator walked into the White House and told him to resign, he would not do it. He would bring the entire Republican Party and country down with him before he resigned.

Now, McConnell and the Republican Senators may decide to remove him from office in the impeachment trial, but I doubt that. Whatever political outcome they are looking at, removing Trump from office and then facing the wrath of his supporters at the ballot box is a worse outcome for them then not removing Trump from office. The country over party or personal interest ship sailed for them a long time ago. Well before Trump.

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I have thought the same, but I have changed my opinion. I think there is deal out there that allows Trump and GOP to at least believe they can save face and minimize legal consequence that they will explore and ultimately pursue rather than ride Trump to the inevitable end.

sycasey said:

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Trump's approval remains north of 80% with Republican voters. Until that drops the Republican Senators won't do anything.

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This doesn't seem insurmountable. A large part of this approval is a result of trusted parties (Fox News and their elected Republican officials) joining in Trump's gaslighting.

All it would take is a decent number of prominent Republican senators and congresspeople to come out and say "it's not okay to abuse the power of the office of the president for your personal gain and when Trump bribed Ukraine in order to have them announce investigations into his political opponent he impeached himself." It really wouldn't be that hard to convince Republicans of the truth, if that's what people wanted to do. The problem is that until this point, the Republican party hasn't wanted to do so. Will it change? Anyone's guess.

Unit2Sucks said:

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sycasey said:

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Trump's approval remains north of 80% with Republican voters. Until that drops the Republican Senators won't do anything.

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This doesn't seem insurmountable.

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I don't think it is either. It's improbable for Trump to be removed via impeachment, but not impossible.

dajo9 said:

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Another Bear said:

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Senate needs 3 GOP senators to join the Dems in requesting secret impeachment removal ballot. There's several GOP senators on the fence like Collins and Ernst. But there's also 4 or so retiring who might go for it. Secret ballot changes everything.

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A secret ballot to remove a sitting President is bad for the country and the integrity of the impeachment process. I'm against it. We should all be against it.

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I get your point about openness but as long as GOP senators fear and hide from Trump, I'm okay with it. Unusual times require unusual measures.

Another Bear said:

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dajo9 said:

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Another Bear said:

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Senate needs 3 GOP senators to join the Dems in requesting secret impeachment removal ballot. There's several GOP senators on the fence like Collins and Ernst. But there's also 4 or so retiring who might go for it. Secret ballot changes everything.

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A secret ballot to remove a sitting President is bad for the country and the integrity of the impeachment process. I'm against it. We should all be against it.

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I get your point about openness but as long as GOP senators fear and hide from Trump, I'm okay with it. Unusual times require unusual measures.

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One of the reasons I support this impeachment is because I support the rule of law (not just as a political measure to weaken Trump). At some point you have to stand up and protect the dignity of the Constitution whether it is a good or a bad political idea. That also means having an open process whether or not it increases your chances of success.

sycasey said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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sycasey said:

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Trump's approval remains north of 80% with Republican voters. Until that drops the Republican Senators won't do anything.

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This doesn't seem insurmountable.

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I don't think it is either. It's improbable for Trump to be removed via impeachment, but not impossible.

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Yes, but my main point is that Republican elected officials aren't at the mercy of their constituents, they are actively engaged in the gaslighting itself.

Unit2Sucks said:

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sycasey said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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sycasey said:

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Trump's approval remains north of 80% with Republican voters. Until that drops the Republican Senators won't do anything.

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This doesn't seem insurmountable.

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I don't think it is either. It's improbable for Trump to be removed via impeachment, but not impossible.

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Yes, but my main point is that Republican elected officials aren't at the mercy of their constituents, they are actively engaged in the gaslighting itself.

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The conservative media bubble has a strong feedback loop.

Numbers not looking good for Trump. The needle has definitely moved. 70% or over 2/3rds is significant.

This is good news and that 70% will only become more convinced when the Sondland Trump restaurant call becomes more well known. "CAN YOU HEAR ME NOW?"

dajo9 said:

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Another Bear said:

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dajo9 said:

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Another Bear said:

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Senate needs 3 GOP senators to join the Dems in requesting secret impeachment removal ballot. There's several GOP senators on the fence like Collins and Ernst. But there's also 4 or so retiring who might go for it. Secret ballot changes everything.

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A secret ballot to remove a sitting President is bad for the country and the integrity of the impeachment process. I'm against it. We should all be against it.

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I get your point about openness but as long as GOP senators fear and hide from Trump, I'm okay with it. Unusual times require unusual measures.

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One of the reasons I support this impeachment is because I support the rule of law (not just as a political measure to weaken Trump). At some point you have to stand up and protect the dignity of the Constitution whether it is a good or a bad political idea. That also means having an open process whether or not it increases your chances of success.

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Have to agree with this. Think about it. In many cases a secret vote could make it more likely that an innocent President would be removed from office. The senators need to be held accountable for their vote. Ultimately, if republican voters choose to ignore the rule of law and make it impossible for their candidates to do what is right and still win their nomination, those voters get punished in the general election by watching their candidates go down in flames.

Some senators are calling for a "private vote". I take that as a paper ballot, not a full public roll call vote, but will obviously be made public later. This might be enough to give senators some protection against Trump, which is what they fear, while still addressing an open process. I think this would be a fair compromise but if it doesn't go that way, whatever.

Unit2Sucks said:

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This is good news and that 70% will only become more convinced when the Sondland Trump restaurant call becomes more well known. "CAN YOU HEAR ME NOW?"

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Three take aways:

A) Pelosi and the Dems got the impeachment messaging and process down correctly.
B) The march of testifying career non-partisan staffers is a turning point that will be further collaborated.
C) That 70% will translate to voting.

Looking forward to Scodland's testimony and the staffer's public testimony (Holmes?). The bet seems to be if Scodland flips on Trump to protect himself or if he falls on his sword for Trump. Indications are the former but you can't tell.

Unit2Sucks said:

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This is good news and that 70% will only become more convinced when the Sondland Trump restaurant call becomes more well known. "CAN YOU HEAR ME NOW?"

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OaktownBear said:

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dajo9 said:

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Another Bear said:

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dajo9 said:

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Another Bear said:

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Senate needs 3 GOP senators to join the Dems in requesting secret impeachment removal ballot. There's several GOP senators on the fence like Collins and Ernst. But there's also 4 or so retiring who might go for it. Secret ballot changes everything.

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A secret ballot to remove a sitting President is bad for the country and the integrity of the impeachment process. I'm against it. We should all be against it.

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I get your point about openness but as long as GOP senators fear and hide from Trump, I'm okay with it. Unusual times require unusual measures.

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One of the reasons I support this impeachment is because I support the rule of law (not just as a political measure to weaken Trump). At some point you have to stand up and protect the dignity of the Constitution whether it is a good or a bad political idea. That also means having an open process whether or not it increases your chances of success.

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Have to agree with this. Think about it. In many cases a secret vote could make it more likely that an innocent President would be removed from office. The senators need to be held accountable for their vote. Ultimately, if republican voters choose to ignore the rule of law and make it impossible for their candidates to do what is right and still win their nomination, those voters get punished in the general election by watching their candidates go down in flames.

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Except that they won't. The guys who are backing the president are afraid of Trump's voters turning on them. That's what happens when the major news outlet spends all their time convincing dumb Republicans that Trump is good and Democrats are evil. They aren't going to back down off that stance and that's proven true throughout all of the Congressional hearings on his varying offenses.

I absolutely support impeachment. It has nothing to do with the election as far as I'm concerned. Any president who abuses the powers of his office must be impeached, even if you know in advance that the Senate won't convict. Then let the chips fall where they may when all of these people come up for re-election and people know how their congressmen and senators voted on this issue.